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How to define a trend?
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How to define a trend?

  #1 (permalink)
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How to define a trend?

Hey,
Even if most traders on this forum are scalpers, they always say that they trade with a trend.
So the question is how do you define a trend? What indicator/s will set you in the right direction.
Most traders trade with indicators, even if they won't admit it. They put the indicators mostly to filter bad trades.
I come from an assumption that each indicator for itself has to improve the setup. I don't believe that two bad indicators will make an improvement. Its not -1 * -1 = 1.
So if someone adds a trend indicator, this indicator has to be really trend predictor. (I made a thread a long time ago stating that there are no lagging indicators. They are all leading. At least thats how we look at them).
So what is a good trend predictor? I made some strategies on supposedly trend indicators. I run them all on 6E, 5Min and same period. Attached are the results.
What do you think?

Baruch
p.s. If someone wants to test another indicators, just ask. (I don't guarantee to create the strategies, but I might).

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How to define a trend?-adx.png   How to define a trend?-emacross.png   How to define a trend?-emaside.png   How to define a trend?-smacross.png   How to define a trend?-smaside.png  
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  #3 (permalink)
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Sorry, forgot to cut blank monitors from one pic.
Also here are the strategies.

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How to define a trend?-emacross.png  
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Register to download File Type: zip Trends.zip (10.7 KB, 30 views)
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Hi Baruch,

I would say an uptrend is basically a serie of Higher Lows and Higher Highs, reverse for a downtrend !

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Quoting 
I would say an uptrend is basically a serie of Higher Lows and Higher Highs, reverse for a downtrend !

Great results!

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How to define a trend?-hhhl.png  
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baruchs View Post
Great results!

LOL

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baruchs View Post
Great results!

Ha ! if that was that easy we would all be zillionaires !

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Quoting 
Ha ! if that was that easy we would all be zillionaires !

I don't say its easy or do I want to create a strategy to trade. All I want to achieve is to find the best indicator/s for trend prediction. I don't believe HHHL is a close contester.

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Please see my response, embedded in blue.


baruchs View Post
Hey,
Even if most traders on this forum are scalpers, they always say that they trade with a trend.

I am no 'scalper', and I would never suggest trading the 'trend', whatever 'trend' means exactly.

So the question is how do you define a trend?

I don't, and I submit to you that doing so is not necessary.

What indicator/s will set you in the right direction.

Most traders trade with indicators, even if they won't admit it. They put the indicators mostly to filter bad trades.

I do not use traditional indicators in any capacity. No lines, no squiggles, no oscillators. Zer0. To be clear, I also do not use what is now commonly referred to as 'price action'.

I come from an assumption that each indicator for itself has to improve the setup. I don't believe that two bad indicators will make an improvement. Its not -1 * -1 = 1.

Fair enough, but then, I don't see a use for any at all

So if someone adds a trend indicator, this indicator has to be really trend predictor.

You don't need this at all. Academics, of course, would even tell you that a 'trend predictor' is impossible. Controversy aside, the point remains: you do not need a 'trend predictor' to be successful. Why make this harder on yourself?

(I made a thread a long time ago stating that there are no lagging indicators. They are all leading. At least thats how we look at them).

Of course indicators lag. Any indicator that averages price (most do), necessarily lags price. It logically follows that no lagging indicator can ever 'lead'.

So what is a good trend predictor? I made some strategies on supposedly trend indicators. I run them all on 6E, 5Min and same period. Attached are the results.
What do you think?

So, why bother posting, you ask? I think you've made a lot of presumptions that I felt the need to address. I also find it highly disconcerting that so many around here are so hung up on 'indicators' and 'predictors'. I simply aim to make clear that there are perspectives that diametrically oppose what you've outlined in your original post. From my experience, these perspectives are superior to the over-the-counter variety. If 'trend', 'indicators', and 'predictors' work for you, fine. Just note, there are other ways. Better ways.

Anyway, best of luck.

Baruch
p.s. If someone wants to test another indicators, just ask. (I don't guarantee to create the strategies, but I might).


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Quoting 
Of course indicators lag. Any indicator that averages price (most do), necessarily lags price. It logically follows that no lagging indicator can ever 'lead'.

It doesn't matter if you look at price itself (current state) or at any "lagging" indicator. The whole essence of technical analysis is that some behavior repeat itself. Maybe not all the time, but it gives you an edge to enter a position. So by leading I mean that if in the past you proved statistically that after SMA5 crosses above SMA20, the price will MOST LIKELY continue to rise, than you treat those "lagging" indicators as leading!!!
That is the whole essence of technical analysis. Of course there are people who don't believe in it and say the markets are random, but I don't believe they are on this forum.

Baruch
p.s. If you have such a grate way to trade, please share.

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