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The opportunities vary with the price action. Like I said today when the market had just opened, I thought that the chances were pretty slim that I would get a chance to trade since the NFP number had been released earlier. When price moves too far in one direction without substantial retracements, then the chances of getting a trade diminish.
As for the potential profit and drawdown, that varies with the setups. The max potential profit would be 7-8 ticks ($87.50 - $100 per contract traded) as in my trade from yesterday, where I entered at the 50% level. The max risk is 8 ticks ($100 per contract traded). If it is more than that, then I don't take the trade.
So if you are trading 1 contract on a $5000 account, then your max risk per trade is 2%. The good thing about the ES is that it is not that volatile, so if price goes 8 ticks against you, you know you are most likely wrong and should be out.
I have added the rules I forgot to include that were mentioned in the video for 06/02. The updates are indicated by a number 1 and they are basically that if the stop is 3 ticks larger than the profit target, then no trade is to be taken. The other addition is that if price is in a tight range 4-5 points and has broken the 76.4% line consecutively on 2 occasions, I recommend to wait until price finishes consolidating and shows some direction, then you can draw the fibs again.
Today I created an application to help determine what 75% of the distance between the 50% and the 76.4% level is. You just need to input the price and it will calculate it for you rounded to the nearest tick. That way you don't have to use the calculator, you can just use this instead.
Lmess, if I use Ninja where do I install this file at. I know you use another trading package but I did not know if you are familiar with Ninja or not. By the way thanks for sharing your method with us.
@hector24 I haven't had time to establish parameters for the contracts you asked about. As soon as I have an idea, I will post it here.
This is the video for the fibs drawn today, June 6th. One trade was taken which resulted in a 6 tick profit, I made a mistake in the video and said 7, it was actually 6. If you have any questions feel free to ask or post your series of Fibs to see if we are both drawing the same fibs.
Here are the fibs drawn for this morning. You can compare to your fibs and see if we are both drawing them at the same pivots and in the same direction.
