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Long View: Historian sees S&P as low as 400
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Long View: Historian sees S&P as low as 400

  #21 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
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whatnext View Post
You agree that there is massive cash on the sidelines ready to be pumped in the markets if austerity measures are taken..?

Someone found a black swan pattern after some next level charting.
black_swan.gif (image)


Take a look at Apple. They have $60BN in cash just waiting.

Take a look at when the market REALLy started to rally......it's not coincidental that the largest muscle movements came immediately after the tax extension and the Democrats lost their stranglehold on the Congress. Both of which restored a portion of "certainty" or predictability to the future. Before that, people had tons of worries about the future tax landscape, labor and employment burdens, etc, etc.

Right now, what's killing growth is MAINLY regime uncertainty. Look at what's happening in Europe with Greece. The entire European market (as well as their currency) are day to day, touch and go with respect to austerity measures, Greek debt, whether or not they'll make good on their commitments to change their spending or whether it's just dumping money into the same endless hole.

The "regime uncertainty" here is hindering growth because businesses, investors, foreign interests, are mostly waiting to see whether or not to get on board a sinking ship. If we can convince them all the ship is seaworthy as always and we have a long term plan to plug the gaping holes that are sinking us.....people will invest. Companies will buy and merge and invest capital and THAT will improve confidence, lead to new employment, etc, etc, etc.

We can't continue on sugar though. The Fed cannot keep printing money and propping up falst growth indefinitely. For a healthy, LONG TERM growth plan, we have to improve the consumer portion of the whole distribution. Right now, there's a gaping hole in labor and consumer wealth. That can't continue much longer.

What I do NOT understand is why Obama wouldn't push to get this deal done and reap the rewards BEFORE the election arrives. I know it'll piss off his base to reduce entitlements, but he'll also get rewarded handsomely if/when the job market improves and people get back to work.

I think he's trying to make the Republicans push the issue and "appear" on the surface as resisting austerity when in fact, he understands just like everything, we have NO choice. He'll villify the Republicans publicly and gamble that he can salvage some form of his voter base, while endearing people who are primarly fixed on the economy if/when it recovers (true recover, not just a red bull rush from the Fed).

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  #22 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
You agree that there is massive cash on the sidelines ready to be pumped in the markets if austerity measures are taken..?

Someone found a black swan pattern after some next level charting.
black_swan.gif (image)

Yeah, I do...I don't know how much exactly but I have heard estimates of over a trillion just sitting around collecting dust. Anyway whatever the number is on the sidelines the people holding it might continue to hang on to it for reasons such as those suggested by RM99 and that would definitely not help the markets. On the other hand if it was put into "circulation" it would have a measurable impact. I would agree a great deal rests on policy by the administration(and the Bernank) and various other factors(more than only austerity). I guess the point is that 400 on the s&p is possible just depends a lot on decisions that are made.

p.s. nice swan

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  #23 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
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kbit View Post
Yeah, I do...I don't know how much exactly but I have heard estimates of over a trillion just sitting around collecting dust. Anyway whatever the number is on the sidelines the people holding it might continue to hang on to it for reasons such as those suggested by RM99 and that would definitely not help the markets. On the other hand if it was put into "circulation" it would have a measurable impact. I would agree a great deal rests on policy by the administration(and the Bernank) and various other factors(more than only austerity). I guess the point is that 400 on the s&p is possible just depends a lot on decisions that are made.

p.s. nice swan

Well, if you agree that a long term debt management plan is key....the roads only lead to one place.

You could raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans (those earning over $250k/year) to 100% and you still couldn't fund our liabilities.

You could tax them 100% and raise the corporate tax rate (we have one of the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world) and still not even come close. (obviously both are unthinkable and untenable.)

The sad fact is that we've simply tapped out our credit card. We've bought a bunch of recurring debt (along with extravagent purchases like wars) and the credit card is maxed.

Austerity is the ONLY option for truly solving the debt crisis.

We COULD try to address the massive illegal immigrant problem, both forward and retroactive (i.e. not giving aid to illegals or their anchor babies) but that's not really a politically tenable policy.

You could raise taxes, but that stifles growth as well (regardless of what socialcrats claim about the Clinton era....unless they can reproduce the effect of economic expansion we enjoyed via the web revolution, raising taxes WILL impede growth).

This isn't news. We see it going on in the EU and with Greece. No one wants to bet on a sick horse.

In the end, I think we'll be okay. I think Obama and the Senate will cave and agree to austerity and they'll leave taxes alone with a "wait and see" till the tax extensions expire.

IF however, the President and the Senate dig in, we could see some dark, dark, dark times. We'll either see the idiot known as Bernanke dump more money (and the dollar will continue to plummet and commodities will skyrocket) OR, we'll see the markets crash (in the absence of QE) and unemployment will actually accelerate.

I don't however, think that will happen. The fallout from "default" would be swift and massive against the Dems.

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  #24 (permalink)
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From zerohedge:

Stocks Post Longest Multi-Week Drop Since 2002 - History Predicts Much More Pain In Store


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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 16:15 -0400



As the superimposed chart below demonstrates, the current 6 week drop, which is the longest in the last 9 years, or since 2002, may just be the beginning. And while our prediction that 2011 is a replica of 2010 is now confirmed, the far scarier possibility is that the next comparison to 2011 is 2002 - if that year is any indication, the SPX will drop to ~1000 before rebounding: obviously at that point the Fed will have no choice but to proceed with QE3, or the downward momentum will accelerate in what may then become a repeat of October 2008, and all those predictions for an S&P 400 would promptly be validated.
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  #25 (permalink)
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From Zerohedge....

Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: "Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions." What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater... which means the S&P would hit the proverbial "S&P 400" which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.
Equities:
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and Credit:
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And completing the pain, again from Morgan Stanley:




Arguably if there were a recession next year the decline in risk assets would be larger than usual. Investors may be unsettled by two related factors. First, the limited policy options for policymakers. Conventional policy tools are near-exhausted in major developed economies. Moreover, there seems to be political, institutional and market obstacles to aggressive use of unconventional policy tools. Ultimately they may come – the bigger the crisis, the bigger the response – but they may only come after there are very significant asset market losses.

Second, a recession next year would increase deflation risks in developed economies. This is partly a matter of inadequate policy response. But the more important point is that the developed economies would enter recession with the lowest nominal GDP growth rate seen entering recession, so nominal GDP contraction would be a larger-than-usual threat. Falling nominal GDP with elevated debt levels is the deadly debt-deflation combination of the 1930s. We are not forecasting such an outcome, but it is a significant tail risk, and one that could lead to a larger-than-usual setback in risk assets.
Translation: we are on the verge of the biggest deflationary market collapse since the 1930s, which will, inevitably, be followed by the most powerful (read fiat dilutive) central bank response in history.

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  #26 (permalink)
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From zerohedge

In his weekly chart packet, Goldman's high frequency strategist, David Kostin, who now changes his year end S&P targets almost as frequently as the firm's economic team changes its GDP forecast, once again gets decidedly fatalistic (very much like Citigroup did yesterday, and Morgan Stanley last week), and is now openly contemplating downside cases to his EPS forecast. And with 2012 EPS numbers thrown around like $91 based on what is certainly an upcoming (but for now still hypothetical) margin contraction, $82 based on a 2% drop (almost guaranteed) in GDP Y/Y, and $75 based on historical earnings plunges in a recession, it may be time to listen up, because apply a traditional contractionary multiple of about 9-10x, and you have yourself a tidy little range of 700 - 910 on the S&P in about a year, absent yet another round of fiscal and/or monetary stimulus.
Kostin on the sensitivity between GDP and EPS:




Every 50 bp shift in 2012 GDP growth rate translates into about $2 per share in 2012 EPS. For example, if the US economy stalls and registers no growth in 2012, then our EPS forecast would equal $94, about $8 below our current estimate and 2% below 2011. If US GDP contracts by 2% on a year/year basis then 2012 EPS would fall to $82 reflecting a 14% decline from 2011.

Many investors are surprised that the EPS sensitivity to GDP growth is not more sizeable. One explanation is that a meaningful portion of aggregate earnings is only modestly linked to GDP growth. Utilities, Telecom Services, Consumer Staples and Health Care will account for nearly 30% of 2012 EPS. We recognize that federal and state government austerity next year will likely have a negative impact on earnings for certain sub-sectors of Health Care. Information Technology, Energy, and Materials generate a large portion of their sales outside the US, in some cases more than 50%, and pricing for commodities reflects global supply and demand. These sectors account for 36% of our 2012 S&P 500 EPS.
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For future gloating's sake, where is where Wall Street currently sees 2012 GDP:
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One thing we can guarantee: the consensus will not be reality 16 months from now.
How about the predictive ability of margin contraction?




Every 50 bp swing in margins equates to $5 per share in S&P 500 EPS (assuming sales growth and Financials and Utilities EPS estimates are unchanged). If margins fall by 140 bp from current 8.9% then S&P 500 EPS would fall to $91, $11 or 11% below our existing 2012 EPS forecast of $102.
Note the assumptions which will never be realized if the bottom falls out.
But the bigggest bear argument is not based on predicting the future (never Goldman's strong suit, unless the firm is actually defining it courtesy of its DC based tentacles), but based on the past:




Six profit cycles since 1974 show peak-to-trough declines in S&P 500 EPS averaged 22%. Most downturns ranged from 10% to 22% although the 2009 drop hit 58% led by a 157% collapse in Financials EPS. Sector level average peak-to-trough declines ranged from 8% growth (Consumer Staples) to 56% decline (Financials). If next year S&P 500 experiences a profit cycle decline similar in magnitude to prior contractions then earnings would fall by 22% to roughly $75 in 2012. Prior downturns typically occurred over 18 months.
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End result: $75 EPS x 10 Multiple = 750 for the S&P.
That distant runging noise is every Wall Street CEO calling Ben Bernanke at the same time.

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  #27 (permalink)
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The S&P 500 At 100? Not As Farfetched As You Think

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>
>
Ok, we know things are getting worse before they get better. You’ve heard it before. There’s the global slowdown, the EU crisis threatening to become a global one, etc.

So the big question on everyone’s mind is, how bad can it get? How low will it go?
Conceivably a lot lower than most believe, even if we just look at a few very basic bits of technical and fundamental evidence.
There are long term technical and fundamental indicators that the current downturn is part of a much longer term move lower. The following is far from a conclusive, thesis. Rather, it’s a starting point for both further study and formation of long term view of where markets are headed.

Some Technical Evidence


Chart 1 below shows a nearly 20% drop since recent May 2011(C) high, which has provided a distinct lower high that confirms the bearish double top pattern formed by the highs in 2000 (A) and 2007(B).




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Chart 1: S&P 500 MONTHLY CHART DECEMBER 1999 - SEPTEMBER 2011 04 oct 08 2054
Points to note:
1. We have additional confirmation of a long term downward momentum from the index having broken below strong support in the 1200-1144 range which included:
  • The 50% fib retracement level (not shown in order to keep the chart from being too cluttered)
  • The 20 (yellow), 50 (red), 100, (purple) and 200 (pink) month EMAs.
Again, those are MONTHLY EMAs that should provide strong support, and the uptrend on which that Fib retracement was based was formed over 6 years. These are serious long term support levels. Gone.

A valid bearish double top reversal pattern needs to be preceded by a long uptrend. We’ve got that too.
In Chart 2 below, of the S&P 500 dating back to 1950, we see that long prior uptrend. You could measure it from around, 1990, 1987, or around 1975. The point is, the double top was preceded by a long uptrend, which in turn was part of an even longer term uptrend over the course of the entire period covered.


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Chart 2: S&P 500 04 1950 – 30 SEPTEMBER 2011 oct 06 1637
This 60+ year perspective highlights how prominent the 2000 – 2007 double top is, how clearly it stands out compared to earlier topping patterns.

Here’s the scary part. The general rule of thumb for Head and Shoulders patterns is that the potential pullback is double the distance from the tops to the neckline. The tops (A and B in chart 1) were at about 1500, the neckline was at about 800, a 700 point drop or 46%! Another 700 point drop from that neckline at 800 would bring the S&P 500 to 100, a 93% drop!

Obviously you wouldn’t base your long term portfolio strategy on this one indicator, though.

The Fundamental Case For A Prolonged Down Cycle


Still, there is significant fundamental evidence that markets are in a multi-year downtrend. See two of the most popular financial books in recent years:
  • This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009, Princeton University Press
  • Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything Mauldin & Tepper, Wiley & Sons, 2011

Both suggest the fundamental outlook for the coming years are likely to be bleak as a “global debt super cycle” (per Mauldin & Tepper) requires years to work off even if policy makers do a good job and are able to manage a controlled descent. If they fail, that steady glide lower becomes a crash landing, with all the panic selling overreaction implied. If they fail over the long term, we get a series of plunges, each leaving markets with refreshed memories of losses and thus more inclined to selloffs. If that happens, then over a matter of years, possibly decades, the S&P at 100 (adjusted for what could be considerable inflation) is not inconceivable. Panics by nature lead to extreme selloffs.
Augmenting the case for a long slide lower:
1. Demographics Of The Leading Economies: The case for a long term downturn in risk assets is strong when we consider the demographic picture in the US and the rest of the developed world, where populations are aging. That means a shrinking proportion of asset buyers to prop up prices and a larger proportion of asset sellers who need cash to fund retirements or semi-retirements. The threat posed by a shrinking population of investors and rising population of retirees liquidating assets is perhaps most dangerous in Japan, where already about 25% of the population is over 65. Consider:
  • Japan has the highest debt/GDP in the developed world, around 200%
  • Yet its 10 year bonds yield only about 1%, because of strong domestic demand.
  • Even with those low borrowing costs, Japan’s debt service expense consumes about 25% of its national budget. We’re not even looking at local or municipal debt.
  • Japan’s demographic time bomb means it’s a matter of when, not if, Japan needs to sell more bonds in the international market at higher cost. Even if it could sell 10 year bonds at only 2% (US 10 year bonds pays over 3%) that would put debt service expenses at over 50% of the national budget, bankrupting the world’s 3rd largest economy.
None of this is new. Japan’s ongoing slow motion train wreck widely noted, but as with Europe’s debt crisis, there’s no solution thus far.
2. The very real threat of severe downturn in Europe at some point in the coming years, possibly months or weeks, is by now well known. It seems as if a week doesn’t pass without some figure of importance warning of Europe’s imminent collapse. See here for just one from the past week from IMF advisor Robert Shapiro, who told a BBC interviewer:
If they can not address [the financial crisis] in a credible way I believe within perhaps 2 to 3 weeks we will have a meltdown in sovereign debt which will produce a meltdown across the European banking system.
We are not just talking about a relatively small Belgian bank, we are talking about the largest banks in the world, the largest banks in Germany, the largest banks in France, that will spread to the United Kingdom, it will spread everywhere because the global financial system is so interconnected. All those banks are counterparties to every significant bank in the United States, and in Britain, and in Japan, and around the world.
This would be a crisis that would be in my view more serious than the crisis in 2008….

Before you dismiss him as just another doom-and-gloom type, as the article’s author so eloquently puts it:
And Shapiro is not just some random guy living with his girlfriend.
Aside from being an advisor to the IMF, Shapiro is the co-founder and chairman of Sonecon, LLC, and was formerly the U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce. He has a Ph.D. from Harvard, among other degrees, oversaw the Census Bureau, and has been a Fellow at Harvard, Brookings, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Oh my.
If either Europe of Japan hit an economic collapse, the risks for more of the same elsewhere rise as supply chains and consumer demand is disrupted.

3. Kondratiev Wave Theory: In essence argues for the existence of 40-60 year economic super cycles.

So our long term bias is to seek strategies that will benefit from a bear market. In other words, it should involve shorting risk assets and being long safe haven assets. Of course there will be intervening bull markets over the coming years, but these are more for trades most likely held for playing shorter term counter moves lasting a matter of months or a few years

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kbit View Post

So our long term bias is to seek strategies that will benefit from a bear market. In other words, it should involve shorting risk assets and being long safe haven assets. Of course there will be intervening bull markets over the coming years, but these are more for trades most likely held for playing shorter term counter moves lasting a matter of months or a few years

So, what is risk asset to short?

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bluemele View Post
So, what is risk asset to short?


I think they are trying to say short S&P and buy gold...something along those lines.
I am just the messenger, like to see everyones take on things...don't necessarily agree with this. I do some longer term stuff myself but this is waaaaay out there ( I hope )...

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Such Pearls of Wisdom as can be found nowhere else... startingly unique insights!


Quoting 
Take a look at when the market REALLy started to rally......it's not coincidental that the largest muscle movements came immediately after the tax extension and the Democrats lost their stranglehold on the Congress. Both of which restored a portion of "certainty" or predictability to the future. Before that, people had tons of worries about the future tax landscape, labor and employment burdens, etc, etc.

Oh. I thought the market started to rally when The Bernank started throwing huge amounts of money to the PD's with which to buy stocks and commodities. Yeah, that's right, the economy is in the tank because THE JOB CREATORS® are afraid their taxes might go up some day.


Quoting 
Austerity is the ONLY option for truly solving the debt crisis.

In the end, I think we'll be okay. I think Obama and the Senate will cave and agree to austerity and they'll leave taxes alone with a "wait and see" till the tax extensions expire.

Oh. Austerity is working real well in Greece, ain't it. Rioting, strikes, contracting GDP that makes the stated goal of being able to pay off the banksters ever more of a fantasy. If the goal is to permanently cripple the economy of a nation and impoverish the population, austerity seems to be a good way to go about it. Bravo!

Who exactly is the "we" who will be okay? Better start planning that fortified wall around the Country Club Community.

Or maybe to start thinking about repudiating unpayable debt.


Quoting 
....we have to improve the consumer portion of the whole distribution. Right now, there's a gaping hole in labor and consumer wealth. That can't continue much longer.

How does austerity result in improving the wealth of consumers, again? Doesn't seem to be working too well in Europe....


Quoting 
The seeds for President Obama’s demagogic press conference on Thursday were planted last summer when he assigned his right-wing Committee of 13 the role of resolving the obvious and inevitable Congressional budget standoff by forging an anti-labor policy that cuts Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and uses the savings to bail out banks from even more loans that will go bad as a result of the IMF-style austerity program that Democrats and Republicans alike have agreed to back.

The problem facing Mr. Obama is obvious enough: How can he hold the support of moderates and independents (or as Fox News calls them, socialists and anti-capitalists), students and labor, minorities and others who campaigned so heavily for him in 2008? He has double-crossed them – smoothly, with a gentle smile and patronizing patter talk, but with an iron determination to hand federal monetary and tax policy over to his largest campaign contributors: Wall Street and assorted special interests' cash. The Democratic Party’s Rubinomics and Clintonomics core operators, plus smooth Bush Administration holdovers such as Tim Geithner, not to mention quasi-Cheney factotums in the Justice Department.

New Economic Perspectives: Don’t Let Him Get Away With It


Last edited by Zondor; October 8th, 2011 at 11:01 PM.
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