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Took another quarter off, for about 80 ES points... Have half position left. I like those head and shoulder patterns, since i remember statistically that they have the greatest failure rates in an up market. So hopefully everyone sees that, and when it fails, i can make more money.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Michael, I am curious how did you manage to hold on your position in the midst of the supposed Greece crisis? From the hindsight it is easy to see that is the right choice but when the outcome was still unknown how did you decide to stay in the market? From the charts alone?
Yeah, your right. I guess that's what this thread is really about....seems no matter what happens the people behind the curtains will do whatever is necessary to prop up this market. Now that bernanke wrapped up QE2 it's even more important to BS everyone in believing that everything is fine in wonderland. Good job on seeing what the market is doing and taking advantage of it.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
There's been some interesting selling coming back into the market here. The chaos in Europe is continuing and I'm certain more countries in the EU will step forward for a hand out now that they've witnessed Greece being helped. The same thing happened when the TBTF Banks started to get bailed out.
Speaking of similarities, as iTrade pointed out, the ES daily chart from the end of '07 compared to the chart of today is very interesting. I would agree with Michael H. in saying H&S don't always work out but when they do, they usually provide some big moves.
Looking at the big picture on the S&P 500, there are some interesting stats to note. One being that we've been stuck in the same price zone since the internet bubble crash with an average point swing of 801.20. From the 2009 March low to current we've run up 703.79 to the recent high. This potentially puts us in some heavy resistance area. Another interesting thing to consider is we have not tested the great bull market trend line since the 80's. If this were to happen, we would see the S&P move down into the 600's again. Any way, just some interesting things to think about. I don't want to come across as sounding bearish but just trying to make sense of the situation. Trade the charts not your bias of course.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
We had a nice day of volatility today. Bernanke made reference to potential further killing of the USD and the market ripped higher. We went all the way up to half way back from the recent high which stalled price and resulted in more selling into the close.
I'm still intra-day trading the ES as I'm very content with this approach given the uncertainty of what Bernanke might say next or all the other political events that are surrounding us. Who knows we could wake up to the ES down 100 points if things really get bad. I will say that the pick up in volatility has been amazing and very reminiscent of the end of 2007.
PB, how do you intra-day trade ES? Take the example of last night, did you buy at the jump that happens at 10 am and short in the middle of the day when ES reaches it's peak?
