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I read a few predictions a few weeks ago that S&P would hit 1400/1450 in Q2 and thought they were crazy then. Looking at the market now it seems extremely probable.
I don't think i can give anything else than what i already have. I mentioned that i believe we continue to go higher, and that its more worthwhile to buy pullbacks, but people continue to ridicule, and i don't have time for that crap. I don't know when we will hit 1400. Some indexes are still showing weakness such as banks, and copper still looks like its basing. Track individual indexes, leading stocks, watch volume and commodities. So far, most look healthy, or are basing. Start worrying when you see weakness under the hood. Leading stocks and indexes will show weakness before the index such as the SnP. Thats how you know wether its a pullback or a selloff. I do want to note that its starting to get a little late in the game if you want to start buying, and i'm starting to trail the markets.
I WANT TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WHAT I MENTION ARE NOT DAY TRADES. If your holding period is less than a week, then do your own thing. This thread is about long term health of the markets( by technical standards), not little pullbacks like we experience( which for some reason people are calling a crash ???) My goal is not to catch every little blip.
I hope my myopic view of the markets isn't too difficult to follow. Catch you guys a little later
The ES will hit 1400 at the end of June around the same time QE2 ends. It will be a great time for shorts once the steroids stop, the house of cards will fall.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Hi Jonc,
The round top formation never followed through to create a long term short position. There's an endless bid under this market that will not subside until QE is gone. There's too much liquidity being pumped into the market via POMO. At this point, I feel equities will continue to climb until the QE rug is pulled out from under them. On the daily chart interval, there was a big wedge break out that occurred that could have some serious strength behind it. A good entry for this would have been around the 1329.25 area. But as Michael H. mentioned, this is a bit late in the move to be starting a new swing position. So, it's tough to say how long this will go. I'm still on the sidelines with ES. I closed out my remaining long positions back in early March.
It also looks like a reverse head and shoulders pattern that broke out. Measuring from the head to the neckline targets around 1430 which lines up with other resistance. When? No idea. It may not even get there, but just wanted to throw it out there. I never thought we would be back to where we are.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
The US Dollar index has continued to deteriorate on a daily basis. We are now fast approaching the low of 2008 at full throttle. How much more can we take of this? I joked about Zimbabwe a while back and it seemed like an extreme reference. Lol! Zimbabwe's stock market was one of the best performing markets out there during that period of time. Meanwhile, their currency was being destroyed.
I believe in real dollar terms, the gains on this run in the market have you at about break even. Pretty interesting.
PB, isn't a weak dollar a concern at all for the government? While I understand that a weak dollar will reduce the burden of the debt which US has but am I right to say they would also not want to see the destruction of the dollar?
Do you see the Fed would act to strengthen the dollar H2 of this year?
