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Chart 1 shows an up sloping $TICK and a $TRIN reading staying below 1.00 indicating a positive divergence on the break, signaling a pullback to the VWAP and possibly the bottom trendline of the wedge
Chart 2 shows the market attempting to make a new low on two separate occasions producing a positive delta divergence and a subsequent bounce from those lows back to the VWAP
Chart 3 & 4 illustrates the downside breakout from the wedge pattern
Chart 5 illustrates a downward sloping VWAP line. If today is a trend day down, then the market will continue to pullback to the VWAP and then probe lower for new value as the day moves forward however the odds are only slightly better than 50% that we will see a trend day; Charts 6&7
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
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It'll be interesting to see if we get an attempt for at least a half gap fill. Looking pretty good so far but a long way to go. Nice divergence bounce of the lows. TICK's appear to be trending higher but can't break above 800. Highest I saw was around 763.
Chart 1 shows an extreme $TICK reading 900+ for 7 minutes and continued horizontal VWAP with the market probing equally higher and lower above the VWAP.
An extreme $TICK reading for an extended period of time indicates exhausted sellers and a temporary bottom - the VWAP picture suggests a trading range for the near future based on that low and the VWAP; with possible probes back above the VWAP
However, today's trading range is only 12.50 points and the 3 ADR is 18.75 /10 ADR - 17.00, so there is definitely room for a range extension late in the day.
$TRIN near it's highs and $TICKDJ is showing weakness indicating the large caps are joining the party with the techs. DJIA is near psychological and technical support at 12,000 and a violation of this level could mean...it's time for panic in the streets.
