ES and the Great POMO Rally - futures io
futures io



ES and the Great POMO Rally


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one tigertrader with 248 posts (470 thanks)
    2. looks_two Private Banker with 215 posts (418 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Michael.H with 58 posts (72 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 56 posts (72 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one tigertrader with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Private Banker with 1.9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 1.3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Michael.H with 1.2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 136,620 views
    2. thumb_up 1,529 thanks given
    3. group 37 followers
    1. forum 926 posts
    2. attach_file 631 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

ES and the Great POMO Rally

(login for full post details)
  #201 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
It'll be interesting to see if we get an attempt for at least a half gap fill. Looking pretty good so far but a long way to go. Nice divergence bounce of the lows. TICK's appear to be trending higher but can't break above 800. Highest I saw was around 763.


IMO, last chance for the professional gap to be filled / partially filled before we trade down to 1200.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  9_27_2010 - 3_11_2011 gap.jpg
Views:	51
Size:	169.0 KB
ID:	33498  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #202 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
IMO, last chance for the professional gap to be filled / partially filled before we trade down to 1200.

Looking like ES could roll over again. 1285's were hit overnight. ES is now struggling with 1293's which is half way back from the same anchor point high's as yesterday (1308). Looking for 1272's now if there's follow through.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #203 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Don't think it will roll today - range day with market mired between the PP and S1 but an upsloping VWAP - market probing higher. Market is probably near term oversold and needs to relieve that condition, shake out some shorts , and trap some new longs. $TRIN below 1.00, uptrending $ADD, and strong TICKDJ confirms underlying strength. I think you will have to wait untill next week to see 1272.00...but we will, indeed!!!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_11_2011.jpg
Views:	50
Size:	64.8 KB
ID:	33501   Click image for larger version

Name:	^TICK (1 Min) _ ^ADD (1 Min) _ ^TRIN (1 Min) _ ES 06-11 (1 Min) _ ^TICKDJ (1 Min) _ YM 06-11 (1 .jpg
Views:	42
Size:	196.3 KB
ID:	33502  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #204 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Next resistance is R1@ 1298.00 - if the market gets above there, we will indeed test the bottom of the professional gap @1301.00 but not get above 1302.00. Big seller at this level.

If the market were to trade and close above 1302.00, we would have to to take into consideration, that the downside breakout may have been an FBO and a bear trap...but I seriously doubt that.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_11_2011.jpg
Views:	63
Size:	181.3 KB
ID:	33513  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #205 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Scale up seller here to 1301.00 Touch the gap, then the market takes a c##p.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_11_2011s.jpg
Views:	59
Size:	82.9 KB
ID:	33540  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #206 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Should be the top! Stop @1307.25 - 2.5X ATR

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_11_2011tl.jpg
Views:	55
Size:	174.4 KB
ID:	33541  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #207 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Make that 1/2 way into the gap, and then fail.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  9_27_2010 - 3_11_2011 fail.jpg
Views:	56
Size:	174.6 KB
ID:	33549   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_11_2011.jpg
Views:	72
Size:	135.8 KB
ID:	33550  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #208 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,278 given, 2,412 received

I'm wondering if we are ready to fail and fall. I for one never thought we would back this high, but I guess when the powers that be decide to do something they do it. There are arguments for both sides. I try my hardest to not have an opinion and let the analysis or the market speak. Attached are a couple charts with one scenario to consider that is not as bearish. Comments are always welcome.

David

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_daily_120.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	387.9 KB
ID:	33615  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #209 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


David_R View Post
I'm wondering if we are ready to fail and fall. I for one never thought we would back this high, but I guess when the powers that be decide to do something they do it. There are arguments for both sides. I try my hardest to not have an opinion and let the analysis or the market speak. Attached are a couple charts with one scenario to consider that is not as bearish. Comments are always welcome.

David

I think it is necessary that we take a more holistic view of the market with an emphasis on price action. There are two particularly significant factors worth noting. The market is no longer rallying on good news, and tech stocks are leading the way down. This tells me the bulls are no longer in charge, and the stocks that have fueled the recent asset ramping, are no longer going up. In addition, action in long term treasuries and market internals confirm a defensive to bearish posture.

While Friday closed 11.75 higher , the price action was a classic response to a large professional gap down day, trading approximately half way into the gap and selling off. If for some reason, however, the shorts were to allow the gap to be filled, we would have to consider that this sell off was a false breakout, and a bear trap. Barring that from happening the odds are in favor of the market trading much lower.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #210 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Tuesday - FOMC Announcement *

Wednesday - PPI

Thursday - CPI

Friday - Quadruple witching / options expiration *


* March opex-as a rule has a bullish seasonality,

* FOMC day- in general has a bullish seasonality going into the announcement

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #211 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

For a market that appeared to be extremely vulnerable to headline risk, it is somewhat surprising the market was able to mount another comeback today, and avoid total collapse. With negative news out of Japan and Bahrain, along with technical weakness confirmed by the market backing and partially filling (1/2) the downside gap, it seemed like all systems were go for a total rout of the equities market.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, we have the FOMC announcement tomorrow, PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday and quadruple witching options expiration Friday. Both March opex week and FOMC day carry a widely followed bullish seasonality that may explain why the market was able to hold up today. The busy week ahead of us may also explain why we had range day, and should also serve to keep us on our toes for one more surprise pop to the upside this week.

However, it still makes me wonder why the risk markets are not down more. A clue to the answer may lie in the $TRIN and $TRINQ. Both indicies were trading at very negative readings early in the day, subsequently rallying as the market rallied in the afternoon, but still remaining below 1.00. Both the $TRIN and $TRINQ were reflecting unusually heavy volume to the buy side while the market was breaking. In other words there was a systematic attempt to bolster the market through the purchase of high beta stocks and and index ETFs. While short covering may have contributed to the $TRIN and TRINQ readings, traders could have covered every single short position, and still not accounted for the majority of activity these indices reflected.

The fact that the Fed is still chasing volatile tech stocks and index ETFs in order to prop up the market, should come as no surprise to us. But what is interesting is that the last two bull market peaks (March 2000 & May 2007) have been preceded by ultra low TRIN readings, like we saw today. March 2011 may just be the hat trick.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	^TICK (1 Min) _ ^ADD (1 Min) _ ^TRIN (1 Min) _ ^TRINQ (1 Min) _ ES 06-11 (1 Min) _ ^TICKDJ (1 Mi.jpg
Views:	49
Size:	263.3 KB
ID:	33777  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #212 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

I just wanted to update where I see things standing. At this point as I type, the ES is down huge in after hours trading (-21). We are seeing massive selling in Asia with the earthquake and tsunami causing major havoc not to mention the nuclear reactor explosions.

The last few days I've been building a core short ES position cycling some gains and selling into any retracements. I'm currently short a fairly sizeable position and will look to build upon that provided we continue to see selling pressure. Obviously, there are a variety of reasons why the market is rolling over but it was a long time coming. It just needed a catalyst to get the ball rolling.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. I read an interesting article on ZH regarding the US Treasury's current funding situation/short comings. If this hits main stream, we're going to see some serious panicking.

There will be some great opportunities to make money in this volatility but please remember to be careful, don't get greedy and follow your trading plan.

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_Meltdown.jpg
Views:	51
Size:	245.7 KB
ID:	33809   Click image for larger version

Name:	Nikkei.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	228.6 KB
ID:	33818  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #213 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,278 given, 2,412 received


tigertrader View Post
I think it is necessary that we take a more holistic view of the market with an emphasis on price action. There are two particularly significant factors worth noting. The market is no longer rallying on good news, and tech stocks are leading the way down. This tells me the bulls are no longer in charge, and the stocks that have fueled the recent asset ramping, are no longer going up. In addition, action in long term treasuries and market internals confirm a defensive to bearish posture.

While Friday closed 11.75 higher , the price action was a classic response to a large professional gap down day, trading approximately half way into the gap and selling off. If for some reason, however, the shorts were to allow the gap to be filled, we would have to consider that this sell off was a false breakout, and a bear trap. Barring that from happening the odds are in favor of the market trading much lower.

Well,

I was certainly wrong with my scenario. When it comes to trading, its not the first time.

D

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #214 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
I just wanted to update where I see things standing. At this point as I type, the ES is down huge in after hours trading (-21). We are seeing massive selling in Asia with the earthquake and tsunami causing major havoc not to mention the nuclear reactor explosions.

The last few days I've been building a core short ES position cycling some gains and selling into any retracements. I'm currently short a fairly sizeable position and will look to build upon that provided we continue to see selling pressure. Obviously, there are a variety of reasons why the market is rolling over but it was a long time coming. It just needed a catalyst to get the ball rolling.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. I read an interesting article on ZH regarding the US Treasury's current funding situation/short comings. If this hits main stream, we're going to see some serious panicking.

There will be some great opportunities to make money in this volatility but please remember to be careful, don't get greedy and follow your trading plan.

Cheers,
PB

Funny how Micahel H. isn't around to "rub it in our face" !

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #215 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Just got long the NOB @(-25) using a 9:5 ratio ( +45 Notes over -25 Bonds) (6 tick stop) looking for the yield curve to steepen and the spread to come in. The short end of the curve should out perform the long end as the flight to quality is concentrated in the shorter maturities.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ZN 06-11 (30 Min) _ ZB 06-11 (30 Min)  3_15_2011.jpg
Views:	45
Size:	121.0 KB
ID:	33869  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #216 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

It appears that the market has stabilized for now with a half gap fill completed so far today. Some interesting things to note, it appears that the market has reacted to a 50% retracement from the late November lows. This will be an important level to watch as it's also where the 100 day moving average is located. Meanwhile, the USD is getting annihilated.

Hope you're all making money!

Best,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-3-15.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	252.2 KB
ID:	33873   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-5Min.jpg
Views:	44
Size:	145.9 KB
ID:	33874   Click image for larger version

Name:	USD.jpg
Views:	50
Size:	235.9 KB
ID:	33875  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #217 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
It appears that the market has stabilized for now with a half gap fill completed so far today. Some interesting things to note, it appears that the market has reacted to a 50% retracement from the late November lows. This will be an important level to watch as it's also where the 100 day moving average is located. Meanwhile, the USD is getting annihilated.

Hope you're all making money!

Best,
PB

Dollar is green on the day...

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #218 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
Dollar is green on the day...

True, but look at the tail on that thing. Big time rejection. I guess candles can always refill through out the day but wow, does that look bad right now.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	USD2.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	172.8 KB
ID:	33881  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #219 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
True, but look at the tail on that thing. Big time rejection. I guess candles can always refill through out the day but wow, does that look bad right now.

Can't argue with you there. I just don't want to be short the dollar here - when the short covering rally in the equities is over and the the second leg down kicks in, then there is going to be a flight to quality in the dollar - I would much rather be long the dollar right now...IMO

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #220 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker: Velocity
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 526 received


tigertrader View Post
Funny how Micahel H. isn't around to "rub it in our face" !

Im still here.. don't worry. I just don't understand what your calling a global meltdown when we've pulled back 3% after a 100% rally that you were shorting the entire time. You had 2 down weeks. Thats it. Im not rubbing anything in your faces, i just still don't understand why your shorting. You're even telling me that you don't know the strike price when it comes to trading options. None of the things you say help your case. Market comes down, you call it a meltdown. Market bounces, you blame it on bernake.
I can't upload .tiff extension on big mike, so i uploaded here with a chart.

ImageShack® - Online Photo and Video Hosting

I've said this before and ill say it again, you CANNOT pick tops and bottoms trading this market, no matter how elegant your methodology is, no matter what time frame. The odds are toooo small, even with a big payout for you to be considered profitable. ASK any pro trader, and they will stand by me on this comment. You say you have other positions on, thats fine. But what your doing is something i've seen many times over and over again, and they all blew up their accounts.
Like i said, when volatility/volume increases and markets come down, i will short no matter how rosy the make the economy sound on CNBC.
I don't have time to watch this thread every day, but im here and i check in at least once every 2 weeks. Best of luck in your trading.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #221 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


Michael.H View Post
Im still here.. don't worry. I just don't understand what your calling a global meltdown when we've pulled back 3% after a 100% rally that you were shorting the entire time. You had 2 down weeks. Thats it. Im not rubbing anything in your faces, i just still don't understand why your shorting. You're even telling me that you don't know the strike price when it comes to trading options. None of the things you say help your case. Market comes down, you call it a meltdown. Market bounces, you blame it on bernake.
I can't upload .tiff extension on big mike, so i uploaded here with a chart.

ImageShack® - Online Photo and Video Hosting

I've said this before and ill say it again, you CANNOT pick tops and bottoms trading this market, no matter how elegant your methodology is, no matter what time frame. The odds are toooo small, even with a big payout for you to be considered profitable. ASK any pro trader, and they will stand by me on this comment. You say you have other positions on, thats fine. But what your doing is something i've seen many times over and over again, and they all blew up their accounts.
Like i said, when volatility/volume increases and markets come down, i will short no matter how rosy the make the economy sound on CNBC.
I don't have time to watch this thread every day, but im here and i check in at least once every 2 weeks. Best of luck in your trading.

With all due respect, you're way off on your analysis with regards to volume and volatility. First of all, when a new trend starts, there isn't a huge spike in volume on a weekly chart interval. It takes time for the move to mature which is why we are seeing lower volume currently vs. your examples. If you look at when those example moves started, you will see that volume starts off lower and builds as the trend builds momentum. Today is only Tuesday and we're already at half the volume of last week essentially. The ATR typically starts small and obviously builds which is what is happening as well. I've attached a few charts to show you what I'm referring to.

Also, if you wait for confirmation of a trend change looking at a Weekly interval, you're getting in rather late IMO.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_Weekly.jpg
Views:	47
Size:	242.6 KB
ID:	33912   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_Vol.jpg
Views:	41
Size:	251.5 KB
ID:	33913  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #222 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker: Velocity
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 526 received

I have no problem getting in late. When the markets go down, you'll have plenty of opps to get in. Still too early to know if this is a new downtrend. Trend changes rarely occur as v shape reversals on an uptrend, its usually a process that takes a few weeks to even months.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Michael.H for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #223 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Michael.H View Post
Im still here.. don't worry. I just don't understand what your calling a global meltdown when we've pulled back 3% after a 100% rally that you were shorting the entire time. You had 2 down weeks. Thats it. Im not rubbing anything in your faces, i just still don't understand why your shorting. You're even telling me that you don't know the strike price when it comes to trading options. None of the things you say help your case. Market comes down, you call it a meltdown. Market bounces, you blame it on bernake.
I can't upload .tiff extension on big mike, so i uploaded here with a chart.

ImageShack® - Online Photo and Video Hosting

I've said this before and ill say it again, you CANNOT pick tops and bottoms trading this market, no matter how elegant your methodology is, no matter what time frame. The odds are toooo small, even with a big payout for you to be considered profitable. ASK any pro trader, and they will stand by me on this comment. You say you have other positions on, thats fine. But what your doing is something i've seen many times over and over again, and they all blew up their accounts.
Like i said, when volatility/volume increases and markets come down, i will short no matter how rosy the make the economy sound on CNBC.
I don't have time to watch this thread every day, but im here and i check in at least once every 2 weeks. Best of luck in your trading.

Two things I'm pretty sure of:

1) You no very little about trading

2) You've never made money trading

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #224 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


Michael.H View Post
I have no problem getting in late. When the markets go down, you'll have plenty of opps to get in. Still too early to know if this is a new downtrend. Trend changes rarely occur as v shape reversals on an uptrend, its usually a process that takes a few weeks to even months.

I agree, there will be plenty of opps but I prefer to get in according to my criteria which has happened. This last leg up has mirrored 2007. Small range melt ups. When the game was up, look what happened. I could definitely see us chopping around a bit but ultimately, if the Fed stops QE, the game is truly done. When looking at the decimation of the USD, how much more can we possibly handle?

Cheers,
PB

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #225 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker: Velocity
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 526 received

"Two things I'm pretty sure of:

1) You no very little about trading

2) You've never made money trading"



OK buddy, whatever you say. I don't have the time going back and forth with you like elitetrader. I think i've established myself in this forum, and i've help lots of people well before you even joined.

You just keep doing whatever it is that your doing. Im gonna unsubscribe from this thread and put you on the ignore list, because its obvious that you can't talk, and have to resort to badgering to try to prove that you know something.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #226 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,278 given, 2,412 received


Michael.H View Post
"Two things I'm pretty sure of:

1) You no very little about trading

2) You've never made money trading"



OK buddy, whatever you say. I don't have the time going back and forth with you like elitetrader. I think i've established myself in this forum, and i've help lots of people well before you even joined.

You just keep doing whatever it is that your doing. Im gonna unsubscribe from this thread and put you on the ignore list, because its obvious that you can't talk, and have to resort to badgering to try to prove that you know something.


I agree. I don't think you need to get rude just because you don't agree with someone.

D

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #227 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


David_R View Post
I agree. I don't think you need to get rude just because you don't agree with someone.

D

I think people from Chicago have a little different view as to what is considered "rude", than those that live in the land of " fruit and nuts."

I guess I could be polite and apologize, but then I would be the hypocrite instead of David H. The guy not only distorts everything you write, but he is the first to jump all over your posts, to point out your "mistakes". And when you are blatantly correct, he can't find the humility within himself to be gracious, and admit you were right.

He is the one who lives to criticize and point out other people's "errors". The ironic part is, he has a myopic, simplistic view of trading that is totally out of context with today's markets, and should be the last person to criticize others.

I'm just being honest, when I say his knowledge of the markets and trading is limited. And I can pretty much guarantee you, just from how he talks about trading, that this guy has never made a dime in this business.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #228 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
New York
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Trading: E-mini S&P 500
 
Posts: 753 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 447 given, 437 received


tigertrader View Post
I think people from Chicago have a little different view as to what is considered "rude", than those that live in the land of " fruit and nuts."

I guess I could be polite and apologize, but then I would be the hypocrite instead of David H. The guy not only distorts everything you write, but he is the first to jump all over your posts, to point out your "mistakes". And when you are blatantly correct, he can't find the humility within himself to be gracious, and admit you were right.

He is the one who lives to criticize and point out other peoples "errors". The ironic part is, he has a myopic, simplistic view of trading that is totally out of context with today's markets, and should be the last person to criticize others.

I'm just being honest, when I say his knowledge of the markets and trading is limited. And I can pretty much guarantee you, just from how he talks about trading, that this guy has never made a dime in this business.


This is exactly why I stopped posting in the forum. You have guys in here and my guess is 95% of them that don't trade with a cash account, but know everything. I'm tired of wasting my time with incompetent people who call themselves traders. I will from time to time add a few comments, but for the most part I'm a lurker. The thread that gives me the most laughs is the "Ten Thousand" thread where these guys want to see a pnl. Who cares who is profitable or not? What is important is do you think you can be a profitable trader? If you are basing your success on someone else success then forget it you won't be. Save your time and don't even think about trading for a business. Well, I'm getting off topic here, but wanted to vent this out. Watch! some moron is going to debate this post.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to itrade2win for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #229 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,005 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,468 given, 98,287 received

Moderator Notice
Moderator Notice



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #230 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,278 given, 2,412 received


tigertrader View Post
I think people from Chicago have a little different view as to what is considered "rude", than those that live in the land of " fruit and nuts."

I guess I could be polite and apologize, but then I would be the hypocrite instead of David H. The guy not only distorts everything you write, but he is the first to jump all over your posts, to point out your "mistakes". And when you are blatantly correct, he can't find the humility within himself to be gracious, and admit you were right.

He is the one who lives to criticize and point out other people's "errors". The ironic part is, he has a myopic, simplistic view of trading that is totally out of context with today's markets, and should be the last person to criticize others.

I'm just being honest, when I say his knowledge of the markets and trading is limited. And I can pretty much guarantee you, just from how he talks about trading, that this guy has never made a dime in this business.

I'm new to the thread so I'm not aware of the what transpired in the past, so I can understand if there is a history there.

I guess rude to the folks in chicago is if you break a knee cap, huh. That's a joke!

D

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #231 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


David_R View Post
I'm new to the thread so I'm not aware of the what transpired in the past, so I can understand if there is a history there.

I guess rude to the folks in chicago is if you break a knee cap, huh. That's a joke!

D

that would be "da" kneecap...

Here's how, they pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That's the Chicago way... "Untouchables"

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #232 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

Market is still in trouble obviously. ES got held at the 61.8% level from the same anchor of 1303.75 yesterday and last night. As of now, we have a low of 1251 from yesterday and a low today of 1255.50. If we break below both of those, I'm looking for 1238.75's. We also had an extremely low NYSE Tick print of -1391. Look out below!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (5 Min) 3_16_2011.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	195.3 KB
ID:	33997   Click image for larger version

Name:	^TICK (1 Min) 3_16_2011.jpg
Views:	63
Size:	79.3 KB
ID:	33998  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #233 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
Market is still in trouble obviously. ES got held at the 61.8% level from the same anchor of 1303.75 yesterday and last night. As of now, we have a low of 1251 from yesterday and a low today of 1255.50. If we break below both of those, I'm looking for 1238.75's. We also had an extremely low NYSE Tick print of -1391. Look out below!

I know it's only up 100% (lol), but let's not forget vol...



Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	b2d97d00e4280538e27b3ad97cb09f3c.png
Views:	56
Size:	7.9 KB
ID:	34035  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #234 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
I know it's only up 100% (lol), but let's not forget vol...



Wow! That's a nice spike up! It's alive! There's a nice trend line I've been watching in play on the ES. Market has been held by it every time so far. It's been an amazing run so far!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES Trend line.jpg
Views:	63
Size:	209.7 KB
ID:	34060  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #235 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

Here we go again. Looks like the BOJ has intervened. Look for this to come all the way back down. Crazy!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	6J.jpg
Views:	57
Size:	98.9 KB
ID:	34073  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #236 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Equities were already oversold, and the result was a 30 point rally off last night's lows. Headline risk from Japan includes continued reactor deterioration . Resistance is the RTH R1 with the potential for a reversal at 1274 basis the 500MA(15M).

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_17_2011 500ma.jpg
Views:	48
Size:	60.2 KB
ID:	34125   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_17_2011 r1.jpg
Views:	46
Size:	67.9 KB
ID:	34126   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_17_2011.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	60.5 KB
ID:	34127   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_17_2011.jpg
Views:	46
Size:	68.7 KB
ID:	34128  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #237 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received

You might want to watch this video from ioamt:


Bill Duryea of the Institute discussed the current state of the rally. Bill presented a technical drill down of the long term trend, the most recent leg of the rally off the July 2010 low and the probability of the market pulling back to its 200 day price average before going on to rally above the current Feb high.

https://ioamt.omnovia.com/archives/74436

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #238 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
You might want to watch this video from ioamt:


Bill Duryea of the Institute discussed the current state of the rally. Bill presented a technical drill down of the long term trend, the most recent leg of the rally off the July 2010 low and the probability of the market pulling back to its 200 day price average before going on to rally above the current Feb high.

https://ioamt.omnovia.com/archives/74436

Thanks for that, that was very interesting and very well explained. Bill makes some great cases there and I greatly respect his knowledge. Personally, I make it a point to try to avoid making market predictions. I only trade what I see on the charts which has kept me out of trouble. If the ES ran all the way down to the 200 day MA, I'd be happy with that. In fact, I'd ecstatic and probably reduce some of my position around that point any way in the event of a major bounce there.

All the market references I've made here are from a swing trade perspective which can last weeks or even months. So, if the market pulled all the way back to the 200 MA, that would be a great move as I'm still in the process of building my position and would begin to scale out around those levels for some very nice gains.

Cheers,
PB

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #239 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received


Private Banker View Post
...All the market references I've made here are from a swing trade perspective which can last weeks or even months. So, if the market pulled all the way back to the 200 MA, that would be a great move as I'm still in the process of building my position and would begin to scale out around those levels for some very nice gains.

Cheers,
PB

May i ask you as a swing or longer term trader, what time of the day do you perfer to manage your trade ? Is it always at the end of the day around 4:00pm EST or at the Globex open ? As a medium/long term trader, one of the thing i'd find difficult to deal with are situations where my short term bias would be to the downside while the possibility of one or more quick pops to the upside would still be present. During the regular session (RTH) you can react to this possibility but if i would manage my trade at a fixed time every day i would be afraid to fall into a bad position. That's why i am interested to know at what time of the day do you evaluate your position ? Is it a variable time or a fixed time ?

Thanks,

TIYF

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #240 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
May i ask you as a swing or longer term trader, what time of the day do you perfer to manage your trade ? Is it always at the end of the day around 4:00pm EST or at the Globex open ? As a medium/long term trader, one of the thing i'd find difficult to deal with are situations where my short term bias would be to the downside while the possibility of one or more quick pops to the upside would still be present. During the regular session (RTH) you can react to this possibility but if i would manage my trade at a fixed time every day i would be afraid to fall into a bad position. That's why i am interested to know at what time of the day do you evaluate your position ? Is it a variable time or a fixed time ?

Thanks,

TIYF

Great question. It's a variable time based more on particular price levels. But when building a position, I actually try to trade it RTH, selling retracements (for a short) and buying retracements (for a long) and taking profit on small amounts to build in some profit/cushion. I usually do this for a few days until I feel I'm holding a good core position at that point. It also depends on the market you're trading of course. But that's what I typically do to get the ball rolling. I try to add or reduce during RTH but if I see price hit a target area, I'll take advantage of that during ETH for sure.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #241 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

The last few days have seen some short covering with today and last night being a classic professional gap up. If you were trying to trade this chop, it was most likely an interesting day for you. Nice move at the cash open but just went sideways from there.

I'm noticing that price could not get higher than 1296.25 despite several attempts. Looks like we're hitting some resistance up here which tells me price is getting sold into every time it reaches the high's of the day. The 50 day MA is sitting up there and 1304 - 1292 appears to be a half way back from the high's of 1343 which is where we could see more selling coming in. I think this is a crucial level and will need to watch this closely. If the bulls can't push this back up, expect to see the trend down continue with a potential target area being around 1217's or even a run for the 200 day MA. If they (bulls) break through this area, we could potentially see new high's.

One thing to note, the USD is continuing to fall apart making new lows on a daily basis.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-21-ES.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	249.2 KB
ID:	34445   Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-21USD.jpg
Views:	47
Size:	236.7 KB
ID:	34446  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #242 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

The market closed unched today on what was another relatively low volume day, although bid/ask volume has returned on an order flow level and liquidity has improved. From the market profile chart we can see that the market is accepting the low to mid 1290's level as value, but from the daily chart we can see the (yellow) 20 EMA and the (magenta) 50EMA is in danger of crossing, and could end up being the proverbial "line-drawn-in-the-sand." A failure from this level would embolden the bears and propel the market to test the recent lows and lower, and a rally up through the MAs would have the bulls going for the 1325-30 area, and possibly higher. As PB stated in his last post the market keeps testing the 1296 area where there is a confluence of the 20 EMA, the monthly S1, technical resistance, and VAh. In any case I think the market will bounce from the 1280-1293 value area, and test the 1296 level(and perhaps, slightly higher) one more time. The question that remains is whether the rally will serve to trap more bulls and shake out more weak shorts before it heads south, or whether it's a precursor to new highs.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_22_2011.jpg
Views:	64
Size:	88.0 KB
ID:	34621   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  8_9_2010 - 3_23_2011 Daily.jpg
Views:	47
Size:	114.7 KB
ID:	34622  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #243 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Beware of Small Cap and Large Cap (divergence) strength! Could lead to an ES rally to 1304.00

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	TF 06-11 (Daily)  7_16_2010 - 3_24_2011.jpg
Views:	53
Size:	125.6 KB
ID:	34808   Click image for larger version

Name:	YM 06-11 (Daily)  7_19_2010 - 3_24_2011.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	119.9 KB
ID:	34809   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  8_6_2010 - 3_24_2011.jpg
Views:	45
Size:	122.7 KB
ID:	34810   Click image for larger version

Name:	NQ 06-11 (Daily)  7_20_2010 - 3_24_2011.jpg
Views:	37
Size:	122.7 KB
ID:	34811  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #244 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
Beware of Small Cap and Large Cap (divergence) strength! Could lead to an ES rally to 1304.00

Looks like the POMO machine isn't giving up yet! I expect them to throw all they have at trying to keep this farce alive! ES is right on the 50 day MA and butting up to the 61.8% level from the high's of 1343. But to compliment this dismal volume move, the USD is falling through the floor.

Cheers,
PB

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #245 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
Looks like the POMO machine isn't giving up yet! I expect them to throw all they have at trying to keep this farce alive! ES is right on the 50 day MA and butting up to the 61.8% level from the high's of 1343. But to compliment this dismal volume move, the USD is falling through the floor.

Cheers,
PB

I seriously doubt that this POMO buying. To date, the majority of POMO buying has been concentrated in high-beta tech stocks. The current rally has been led by the small cap sector, while the techs have lagged far behind, and have actually been the weakest sector.

Foreign capital may be flowing into the small caps and the current headline risk in the Middle East , North Africa, and Japan may be the reason, as money moves out of the emerging markets and back into the U.S. As you pointed out, the dollar continues to weaken and is in danger of making new lows. An increasing growth of dollar-denominated assets means an increasing growth of the supply of U.S. dollars, thus depressing it's value.

What is surprising however, is when foreign money comes into the U.S. markets, it generally flows first to large-cap stocks and not to small caps. But the market may be favoring stocks that aren't perceived to be exposed to European, Japanese, and MENA risk. Small companies are generally less tied to the global economy than are big U.S.-based conglomerates, and are less risky in that sense.

Combine this "flight-to-quality" with the value that a cheap dollar affords the foreign investor, and you may have the reason why the market is rallying, and small caps are leading the way.



Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #246 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

I had expected an up move today. Reason was yesterday's extremely low reading of the ISEE index (put/call ratio) in combination with an upclose. This showed that

- there was fear and uncertainty
- the market moved up in despite of that uncertainty



There was an increasing probability for an upmove today. Consequently the price stayed above the pivot range during the night session and only briefly tested the Asian range after the RTH session opened.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min) 24_03_2011.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	79.5 KB
ID:	34869  
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #247 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

Just read this on Zerohedge (sorry for the caps locked, copied it right off the site): "TODAY TWO LARGE MACRO FUNDS OVER HERE HAVE GONE WILDLY LONG S&P. NOT LONG. WE TALKING 250% NET LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERTED ACTION ON GDP DGRADES FROM GS AND BOFA ARE THE LETTER DELIVERED TO BEN ON QE3. HUGE DIRECTIONAL BET WITH NEW CAPITAL PUT AT WORK. MOST LIKELY THE TWO INSTITUTIONS ARE COORDINATING ACTION WITH OFFICES IN CONNECTICUT. CHECK INFLOWS OF BLUE CHIP HEDGE FUNDS IN JAN FEB. APPLY 2.5 LEVERAGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME 40-60BN PUT AT WORK PRIMARILY ON EMINIS AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER SOME EXTERNAL FORCE WILL LEAVE THEM HIGH AND DRY I DON'T KNOW. BUT IF ANYTHING SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST NOT TOO IRRATIONAL UP TO NOW, IN THIS THIRD WAVE, BE READY FOR REAL ROCK AND ROLL."

If this is true and the Fed is given the green light on QE3, we could definitely see new high's. Either way, I don't trade on rumors.

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-24-ES.jpg
Views:	38
Size:	222.2 KB
ID:	34870  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #248 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,005 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,468 given, 98,287 received


Private Banker View Post
If this is true and the Fed is given the green light on QE3, we could definitely see new high's. Either way, I don't trade on rumors.

Cheers,
PB

Well I would say if Friday doesn't bring 1280's then prior resistance around 1295-1305 may now turn into support, and we will see short covering as we head into 1320's and 1330's.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #249 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

ISEE sentiment jumped from 74 yesterday to 173 today.

Yesterday the index had the second lowest value of 2011 (after March 10) , today it has the fourth highest (after January 5, January 18 and February 8).

International Securities Exchange, LLC. :: Market Data Products :: ISEE Index

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #250 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

It was definitely "risk on" today as the bulls picked up the ball and continued to run with it up through 1296 area, pausing briefly at the 1304 level, before breaking higher to test the monthly PP and previous month's TPO at 1314.00. With leadership coming from the small caps and large caps the ES rallied through and closed above it's 20 and 50 day moving averages, once again paying little attention to negative economic reports and negative headlines. While the bulls appear to be in firm control, the major indices are not quite out of the woods yet. Neither of the major indices have made a higher high or closed above the previous months close, and while the TF and YM are exhibiting good relative strength, the NQ is lagging far behind signaling a bearish divergence, and may end up being the market's Achilles Heel. The ES must close above the VAh at 1320.75 and descending trend-line and accept, if the bulls are going to punch it through the 1327.75-1328.25 level to new material highs.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_24_2011.jpg
Views:	45
Size:	139.8 KB
ID:	34914   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  8_9_2010 - 3_25_2011.jpg
Views:	47
Size:	126.5 KB
ID:	34915   Click image for larger version

Name:	NQ 06-11 (Daily)  7_21_2010 - 3_25_2011.jpg
Views:	51
Size:	126.7 KB
ID:	34916  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #251 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received

it sure looks to me that we're very close to a major move. if the market is showing weakness tomorrow, I might buy some puts. not sure yet if spx or iwm puts. depends how expensive they are.

this is the moment for me to do some gambling. I'm fully aware that we also could see new highs, but I think it's worth the risk.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #252 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Silvester17 View Post
it sure looks to me that we're very close to a major move. if the market is showing weakness tomorrow, I might buy some puts. not sure yet if spx or iwm puts. depends how expensive they are.

this is the moment for me to do some gambling. I'm fully aware that we also could see new highs, but I think it's worth the risk.

If you want to get short, why would you get short the strongest index (RUT), and not the weakest (COMP)?

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #253 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Bill Gross article, which echoes Charles Hugh Smith's comments below. The article highlighted in Smith's quote is a must read!

PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Two-Bits, Four-Bits, Six-Bits, a Dollar


>>As I noted in Sorry, Fed and People's Bank of China: You Can't Have It Both Ways (March 15, 2011), you can't pump up money supply and credit to goose "risk trades" in stocks and commodities without inflating asset bubbles and triggering runaway input-costs, i.e. inflation that destroys profit margins and impoverishes stagnant-wage households.

But if the Fed takes its hands off the game controller and allows the dollar to rise, then equities crash anyway.

In other words, the dollar is at a point where either path leads to stocks crashing. Go ahead and destroy the dollar, and the rising-input-costs monster will gut stocks and impoverish households. Back off and let the dollar rise, and the risk trades (equities and commodities) will plummet.


Take your pick: the result is the same.<<

QE2 is scheduled to end June 30, 2011!

If the Fed’s large scale asset purchase (LSAP) program, popularly known as QE, is to continue uninterrupted, it will need to be announced in the April 27, 2011 FOMC statement. As an aside, that announcement will be released at 12:30 pm instead of 2:15 pm, as the Fed is taking the unprecedented step of initiating press briefings post-announcement four times per year. April 27 will be the first of these.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #254 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received


tigertrader View Post
If you want to get short, why would you get short the strongest index (RUT), and not the weakest (COMP)?

actually today COMP was the strongest and RUT the weakest. and even so after market. but I do agree the last few days the COMP was lagging behind the others.

in the end I don't think it matters. depends also how the options are priced.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #255 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Silvester17 View Post
actually today COMP was the strongest and RUT the weakest. and even so after market. but I do agree the last few days the COMP was lagging behind the others.

in the end I don't think it matters. depends also how the options are priced.

Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #256 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received


tigertrader View Post
Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

as I said before, this is strictly gambling. but if we should get an explosive down move, my first choice is still RUT. it's normally more volatile than the others.

so you're right, I'm not looking to sell the weakest. I'm looking to sell the most volatile one. but I respect and understand what you're saying.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-25_0002.png
Views:	44
Size:	77.7 KB
ID:	34925   Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-25_0009.png
Views:	53
Size:	77.3 KB
ID:	34926  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #257 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Silvester17 View Post
as I said before, this is strictly gambling. but if we should get an explosive down move, my first choice is still RUT. it's normally more volatile than the others.

so you're right, I'm not looking to sell the weakest. I'm looking to sell the most volatile one. but I respect and understand what you're saying.

You may be right, in the end. The RUT led the way up, and it just might lead on the way down.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #258 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received


tigertrader View Post
Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

would like to add that in general I believe your statement is absolutely correct. here's an example: an investor has 2 positions, one he has a profit and the other one he is losing money. now he has to sell one position. I bet most retailers wold sell the one where they have a profit, in hope the losing position would turn around. and imo this is the wrong approach. here I probably would sell the weak one first.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #259 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Friday’s narrow range day was marked on the lower end by the early morning gap fill at 1305.25 and on the upper end by the monthly pivot, day-session-only R2, and weekly R2, from 1314.55 to 1315.75. The market has accepted value at at higher levels, and seems to be preparing for an all out assault on the highs, but may chop around for the next few trading sessions between 1300 and 1320 as we approach the bearish seasonality associated with the Treasury auction on Monday - Wednesday and the last trading day of the month next Thursday.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_25_2011 MP.jpg
Views:	43
Size:	34.4 KB
ID:	34985   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_25_2011.jpg
Views:	59
Size:	84.5 KB
ID:	34986   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_25_2011.jpg
Views:	39
Size:	195.4 KB
ID:	34987   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  11_8_2010 - 3_25_2011.jpg
Views:	40
Size:	77.6 KB
ID:	34988   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Weekly)  Week 8_2008 - Week 12_2011.jpg
Views:	41
Size:	123.0 KB
ID:	34999  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #260 (permalink)
 jonc 
australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: -
 
Posts: 303 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 123 given, 138 received


Private Banker View Post

The last few days I've been building a core short ES position cycling some gains and selling into any retracements. I'm currently short a fairly sizeable position and will look to build upon that provided we continue to see selling pressure. Obviously, there are a variety of reasons why the market is rolling over but it was a long time coming. It just needed a catalyst to get the ball rolling.

PB, are you still holding on to your short position or had you unwound your position?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jonc for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #261 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


jonc View Post
PB, are you still holding on to your short position or had you unwound your position?

I'm still short but reduced. If I get stopped out on my remaining positions, I'm fine with that as I was able to get some nice profits booked on this move already. I was hoping to see more selling coming in but it seems like there was a rush to converge with the R2K the last few days as it (TF) bounced hard off of it's 100 day MA. Looking at the TF it has moved right back to where it appears to have been previously getting sold into around the 830 level. The volume for the last few days has been an absolute joke so, we'll have to see how it goes but this is looking suspicious to me.

I think many are betting that the Fed will continue with it's liquidity pumping a la QEIII but that remains to be seen. The USD made an interesting spike on Friday. I'm noticing a bullish divergence on the DX daily chart as well. We'll see though, could be just another retracement. I've also noticed quite a few comments coming out of various Fed regional presidents referencing the need to unwind their debt monetization efforts as the economy is showing signs of recovery. Let's see if they actually vote their opinions this time.

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_Bullish-Divergence.jpg
Views:	43
Size:	293.8 KB
ID:	35108   Click image for larger version

Name:	TF.jpg
Views:	49
Size:	269.3 KB
ID:	35109   Click image for larger version

Name:	USD.jpg
Views:	39
Size:	258.1 KB
ID:	35110  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #262 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
I'm still short but reduced. If I get stopped out on my remaining positions, I'm fine with that as I was able to get some nice profits booked on this move already. I was hoping to see more selling coming in but it seems like there was a rush to converge with the R2K the last few days as it (TF) bounced hard off of it's 100 day MA. Looking at the TF it has moved right back to where it appears to have been previously getting sold into around the 830 level. The volume for the last few days has been an absolute joke so, we'll have to see how it goes but this is looking suspicious to me.

I think many are betting that the Fed will continue with it's liquidity pumping a la QEIII but that remains to be seen. The USD made an interesting spike on Friday. I'm noticing a bullish divergence on the DX daily chart as well. We'll see though, could be just another retracement. I've also noticed quite a few comments coming out of various Fed regional presidents referencing the need to unwind their debt monetization efforts as the economy is showing signs of recovery. Let's see if they actually vote their opinions this time.

Cheers,
PB

As PB stated, various Fed governors have recently made references to the possibility of scaling back the Fed's large scale asset purchase program, otherwise known as QE2. Next week will be no different, as there are no fewer than 10 speeches by Fed governors scheduled, which would lead us to believe the final decision has not been made. For now, QE2 is scheduled to end on June 30, 2011. If there were to be an announcement in reference to it's continuation, or the inception of QE3, it will need to be announced in the April 27, 2011 FOMC statement. Until then, the Fed will be monitoring Wall Street's reaction and the market's reaction, to the various Fed governors' comments.

While the markets' price action certainly implies that the bulls are back with a rekindled preference for risk, there are some reasons to be suspicious of this rally. The Fed released statistics for the closing two week bank reserve window, which reveal that banks increased excess reserves held at the Fed by $70,709, while the total QE Treasury purchases during the period was $54, 234 (reported at par). This, along with the Fed Funds rate ticking lower to 0.13% continues to be a sign of risk aversion. ( FRB: H.3 Release--Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions--March 24, 2011)

In addition, the rally in the major indices off the March 17 lows was not on increasing volume and increasing open interest, but rather on declining to steady volume and flat open interest. The techs, which were the preferred vehicle for the Fed's asset purchase program, are lagging far behind the small caps, and even more troubling is the fact that the financials are not participating in this rally. The implication is the March rally may be a short covering rally, which was aided and abetted by the ever weakening dollar. As PB stated, if the dollar were to bottom and rally, and the negative correlation with equities persisted, the March rally could end up being a massive bear trap. A convincing break of 1290, especially on headline news, would go a long way to convincing the bulls they were wrong.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	01fb2695421236a26ed203e99693d20a small.png
Views:	49
Size:	16.0 KB
ID:	35116   Click image for larger version

Name:	857358acca7c0f3a352fa1008da6a1ab.png
Views:	46
Size:	15.8 KB
ID:	35117   Click image for larger version

Name:	f1bb3db866e58049ebdfcdb408950a90 tech.png
Views:	54
Size:	16.1 KB
ID:	35118   Click image for larger version

Name:	aeec8946e38bd4d3358849d13703c3cf banks.png
Views:	41
Size:	15.3 KB
ID:	35119  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #263 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,382 received

I'm not an expert on this but the Elliot wave people are warning we are at the end of a bear market rally and the subsequent crash could be worse than the first one......similar to the one that deepened the Great Depression.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #264 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


aztrader9 View Post
I'm not an expert on this but the Elliot wave people are warning we are at the end of a bear market rally and the subsequent crash could be worse than the first one......similar to the one that deepened the Great Depression.


You must be referring to Bob Prechter, and he may be right...who knows.? Doesn't mean the market won't trade 100 points higher, or 200 points higher, etc., basis the SPX, before it crashes.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #265 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Monday’s action was uneventful for the majority of the day as the market continued to consolidate recent gains and build value at current levels. The market did sell off late in the day into the close, in what might have been a reaction to the surprise $830MM 7day reverse repo conducted by the Fed and the T+3 prior to Q1 settlement effect. Although the "drain" was only 10% of the amount of money that was added via the earlier POMO, the temporary market operation may have been construed as a shift-in-ploicy signal from the Fed. Nevertheless, traders had to endure another low volume range day bordered by the R1 above and the S1 below. Low volume and volatility have been characteristic of bullishness since the market recovered in March 2009, with HFT churning much greater on market breaks. So, the lack of volume we are experiencing on this rally may be the “new normal”, and not indicative of weak participation. Small cap/large cap leadership continued as the techs, retailers and banks, continued to exhibit weak relative strength. The first of three days of auctions commenced today, with the issuance of $35BB in 2year notes, which resulted in the highest issuance yield since April 2010, just before the market tumbled and the ground was set for QE2. Tuesday and Wednesday sees the slight bearish seasonality associated with the auction continuing with the remaining $64BB dollars in 5s and 7s to be auctioned off, followed by the last trading day of the month on Thursday. As a rule, the last day of a strong month shows early weakness as traders book profits, and late afternoon strength as traders begin to position themselves ahead of the next month. We end the week with the strong bullish seasonality that is associated with the first day of the new month, and the new quarter. This should provide the bulls the shot-in-the-arm they need to take the market to the next level.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_28_2011.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	183.1 KB
ID:	35225  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #266 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

An alternative way of presenting the range, detected by simple expansion bar indicator.

These were two consecutive narrow range days, which increases the probability for a trending day tomorrow.



Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #267 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received

One thing I noticed in all the Equity indices today was that price was being sold into every time it touched VWAP. That usually is a hint that someone is establishing a short bias with the exception of this morning's initial move. If I were looking to add to my short position today, I would have been selling the VWAP every time.

From a swing trade perspective, I felt today needed to be a reversal from Friday to keep the potential short theme alive. Certainly not out of the woods and would like to see continued selling into the next few days. This could just be some end of Q1 selling however so, I'll be watching this closely.

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-28-ES.jpg
Views:	44
Size:	124.6 KB
ID:	35229  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #268 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received

I thought this was a text book day. with the expected strong selling into the finish.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2011-03-28_1612.png
Views:	53
Size:	60.6 KB
ID:	35230  
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #269 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	VWAP versus Pivot Range.jpg
Views:	51
Size:	99.5 KB
ID:	35231  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #270 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Fat Tails View Post
Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

No doubt, hindsight is 20-20. Today was a range day for the majority of the day until the Fed conducted the surprise drain. I had warned about the bearish seasonality associated with the auction on Friday, but was completely caught off-guard by the reverse repo, and the subsequent sell off. That being said, a sell off at this point in time should be constructive for the bulls, as it will relieve any overbought condition, shake out the weak longs, and trap some new shorts. I believe the bulls will step up to the plate around the POC at 1292.00 and support their position moving froward into the new month and quarter. Sans the Fed announcing the end of QE2 or shift to a tightening bias, this looks like a bear trap to me!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  8_10_2010 - 3_28_2011.jpg
Views:	38
Size:	117.6 KB
ID:	35233   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_28_2011.jpg
Views:	36
Size:	149.7 KB
ID:	35234   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_28_2011 vwap.jpg
Views:	36
Size:	63.3 KB
ID:	35236   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_28_2011.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	82.6 KB
ID:	35237  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #271 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


Fat Tails View Post
Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

What I was referring to is more from a portfolio management perspective of establishing a short bias (or adding to one) with your trades achieving VWAP.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #272 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received


Private Banker View Post
One thing I noticed in all the Equity indices today was that price was being sold into every time it touched VWAP. That usually is a hint that someone is establishing a short bias with the exception of this morning's initial move. If I were looking to add to my short position today, I would have been selling the VWAP every time.
...

That's a logical observation but at what point did you realise that ? firts, second or third time it occured ?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #273 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
That's a logical observation but at what point did you realise that ? firts, second or third time it occured ?

Well, let me first say that I wasn't trading ES today but was trading CL. But I noticed this morning that equities hit the top of it's range and did not break out. At around 11AM EST +/-, I noticed that there were signs of selling taking place at the VWAP. Sold off slightly came right back up and got sold into again. This continued several more times before finally falling through the bottom of the day's range.

This is by no means a guarantee for a sell off or that many are building a short bias. It's just something that I would do if I were adding to my short position. I'm still swing short but at a reduced amount. I would like to see more selling before I start adding to my position.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #274 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received


Fat Tails View Post
Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

Typically (and this is a classical Market Profile setup) when there is range extention (at least 4 ticks above/below the initial balance) and at 1:00pm EST, price opens within 1 point from the POC and does not go in the oposite direction of range extention then your best bet is to go in the same direction as range extention after 1 pm. The 1min opening range has acted as an area of resistance along with the open of the day session (RTH).

It's also interesting to note where price went (Thursday's POC at 1302).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #275 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
Typically (and this is a classical Market Profile setup) when there is range extention (at least 4 ticks above/below the initial balance) and at 1:00pm EST, price opens within 1 point from the POC and does not go in the oposite direction of range extention then your best bet is to go in the same direction as range extention after 1 pm. The 1min opening range has acted as an area of resistance along with the open of the day session (RTH).

It's also interesting to note where price went (Thursday's POC at 1302).

Yes it's one of the 80-20 rules, I believe. It also doesn't hurt that today is T+3, prior to Q1 settlement, and it was a big up month.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #276 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
What I was referring to is more from a portfolio management perspective of establishing a short bias (or adding to one) with your trades achieving VWAP.


Don't you think it would be wiser to or add to your shorts @ +2SD-3SD, and add to your longs @ -2SD-3SD, especially on a day when there is neither a negative nor positive slope to the VWAP line?

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #277 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post

Don't you think it would be wiser to or add to your shorts @ +2SD-3SD, and add to your longs @ -2SD-3SD, especially on a day when there is neither a negative nor positive slope to the VWAP line?

Yes, that's definitely possible. When I managed money, whenever we were establishing positions or adding, it was generally around the VWAP (regardless of the slope) which is why I always watch it. I know a lot of big orders are likely to be taking place there.

Now that I only manage my own money, using the VWAP isn't the only way I would look to add to or establish a position however it can certainly be an effective way to do so.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #278 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
Yes, that's definitely possible. When I managed money, whenever we were establishing positions or adding, it was generally around the VWAP (regardless of the slope) which is why I always watch it. I know a lot of big orders are likely to be taking place there.

Now that I only manage my own money, using the VWAP isn't the only way I would look to add to or establish a position however it can certainly be an effective way to do so.

I'm sorry, but I'm missing the logic behind your statements. The VWAP is simply the average price of a security traded over a period of time. It is essentially a benchmark for investors that want to be passive in their execution, and are seeking the average price based on volume, i.e., a guaranteed VWAP execution. The implementation of the VWAP was in response to the decimalization of the market and the proliferation of algorithmic trading that resulted from this change, and became popular as a tool to reduce transaction costs and the impact of large institutional orders on the market.

As an active trader/ investor, I don't understand on how the VWAP would offer you any advantages in the timing and placement of you entries or you adds, from a position trading/portfolio management perspective. On the contrary, I would be looking to execute my trades as far away from the VWAP as possible, i.e. plus or minus 3 standard deviations away, or S3/R3.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #279 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
I'm sorry, but I'm missing the logic behind your statements. The VWAP is simply the average price of a security traded over a period of time. It is essentially a benchmark for investors that want to be passive in their execution, and are seeking the average price based on volume, i.e., a guaranteed VWAP execution. The implementation of the VWAP was in response to the decimalization of the market and the proliferation of algorithmic trading that resulted from this change, and became popular as a tool to reduce transaction costs and the impact of large institutional orders on the market.

From the perspective of an active trader/ investor, I don't understand on how the VWAP would offer you any advantages in the timing and placement of you entries or you adds. On the contrary, I would be looking to execute my trades as far awy from the VWAP as possible, i.e. plus or minus 3 standard deviations away, or S3/R3.

Exactly, I wasn't speaking from the perspective of an active trader/investor. I was speaking from the perspective of a fund manager who is looking to put capital to work. From an active retail investor perspective, I can definitely see your point.

Let me explain in more detail what I was referencing. Let's say your fund is looking to become more short bias or put additional capital to work, you're likely to place those orders near VWAP. You aren't concerned with the intraday moves as much as you are with the overall big picture. Your trading criteria is derived from a daily/weekly chart interval with a long(er) term objective. The intraday standard deviations aren't as important when you're working with bigger picture standard deviations that are more annual based and asset class based. You aren't going all in on one trade but you're gradually getting your orders in near the VWAP.

So, to circle back from what I originally said in observing price being sold at VWAP several times today. My thought is there could be some big orders being placed at those levels by large institutions. It's just a thought of course and who knows what will happen for sure.

Cheers,
PB

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #280 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Private Banker View Post
Exactly, I wasn't speaking from the perspective of an active trader/investor. I was speaking from the perspective of a fund manager who is looking to put capital to work. From an active retail investor perspective, I can definitely see your point.

Let me explain in more detail what I was referencing. Let's say your fund is looking to become more short bias or put additional capital to work, you're likely to place those orders near VWAP. You aren't concerned with the intraday moves as much as you are with the overall big picture. Your trading criteria is derived from a daily/weekly chart interval with a long(er) term objective. The intraday standard deviations aren't as important when you're working with bigger picture standard deviations that are more annual based and asset class based. You aren't going all in on one trade but you're gradually getting your orders in near the VWAP.

So, to circle back from what I originally said in observing price being sold at VWAP several times today. My thought is there could be some big orders being placed at those levels by large institutions. It's just a thought of course and who knows what will happen for sure.

Cheers,
PB

My point exactly -you're not CalPERS, you're not managing a gazillion dollars, or putting on the kind of size that has to be sliced and diced and insured a "fair" fill basis the average price. As an individual trader (trading your own capital) you want to buy as low as possible, and sell as high as possible - not the average price of the two extremes.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #281 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,850 received


tigertrader View Post
My point exactly -you're not CalPERS, you're not managing a gazillion dollars, or putting on the kind of size that has to be sliced and diced and insured a "fair" fill basis the average price. As an individual trader (trading your own capital) you want to buy as low as possible, and sell as high as possible - not the average price of the two extremes.

OK, I'm confused here. I was just stating what I saw occur in today's price action which is based on my past experiences. I didn't realize it was a challenge of the wits. Just trying to put some good thoughts on this forum. I won't be doing that anymore...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #282 (permalink)
 jonc 
australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: -
 
Posts: 303 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 123 given, 138 received


Private Banker View Post
OK, I'm confused here. I was just stating what I saw occur in today's price action which is based on my past experiences. I didn't realize it was a challenge of the wits. Just trying to put some good thoughts on this forum. I won't be doing that anymore...

PB, do continue sharing. this thread is one which I constantly keep an eye on. I'm not sure if many of the people on this forum know the value of this thread.

Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to jonc for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #283 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received


tigertrader View Post
My point exactly -you're not CalPERS, you're not managing a gazillion dollars, or putting on the kind of size that has to be sliced and diced and insured a "fair" fill basis the average price. As an individual trader (trading your own capital) you want to buy as low as possible, and sell as high as possible - not the average price of the two extremes.

No, we are not putting on size and we do not use the VWAP as a benchmark. But as small traders we may exploit the behavior of the larger market participants. If the VWAP is regularly sold, I may conclude that a large selling program is under way and that I want to be short myself.

If I buy low or sell high, I put on a high risk trade, as it is a counter trade. If I simply sell the VWAP, this is a retracement trade supported by a selling program. What is wrong about that?

Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #284 (permalink)
 newlifemkt 
nashville
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Metatrader, omnitrader, tradestation, Window on Wall Street
Broker: amp/zenfire
Trading: ES TF Ym eur/usd audnsd
 
newlifemkt's Avatar
 
Posts: 8 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 18 given, 1 received


Private Banker View Post
OK, I'm confused here. I was just stating what I saw occur in today's price action which is based on my past experiences. I didn't realize it was a challenge of the wits. Just trying to put some good thoughts on this forum. I won't be doing that anymore...

Please continue to post. I really enjoy the perspective you present. I don't understand everything you present, but this is a learning environment. Many Thanks to you.

Champions are made by risking more than others think is safe,
Dreaming more than others think is practical,
and expecting more than others think is possible.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to newlifemkt for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #285 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

This is an example of a nice VWAP trade.

CL is in an uptrend and retraces to a support zone as identified

- by the VWAP of the current session
- the floor pivot S1
- the supertrend indicating where maximum adverse excursion (MAE) could be located

This is a high probability trade.


Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #286 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Fat Tails View Post
This is an example of a nice VWAP trade.

CL is in an uptrend and retraces to a support zone as identified

- by the VWAP of the current session
- the floor pivot S1
- the supertrend indicating where maximum adverse excursion (MAE) could be located

This is a high probability trade.


Please, don't get me wrong, My intra-day trading is strongly influenced by the VWAP, and I have written many posts (#186) alluding to the importance of it's implementation in one's trading methodology. My most recent reference to the VWAP was from a position trading perspective. In the chart above, where would you like to be long from ( 102.70) and where would you like to be short from (103.98), if you were initiating a position trade? The VWAP is not the optimal entry point from that perspective.

As I stated in my post #259 from Friday, "The market has accepted value at at higher levels, and seems to be preparing for an all out assault on the highs, but may chop around for the next few trading sessions between 1300 and 1320 as we approach the bearish seasonality associated with the Treasury auction on Monday - Wednesday and the last trading day of the month next Thursday." Therefore I was looking for 1300.00 today as an area of support and the optimal entry point to get long, not the VWAP.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	46
Size:	63.6 KB
ID:	35336  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #287 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received

no doubt the vwap is a very important and useful indicator. but one should not forget, if you work a big order spread over the day (maybe even guarantee the vwap as an execution price), you sure don't want to buy or sell the vwap. what you want is to sell above it and to buy below it.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #288 (permalink)
 redratsal 
Milan (I)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: FDAX,6E,CL,YM,NQ,ES
 
redratsal's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,215 given, 2,084 received


Silvester17 View Post
no doubt the vwap is a very important and useful indicator. but one should not forget, if you work a big order spread over the day (maybe even guarantee the vwap as an execution price), you sure don't want to buy or sell the vwap. what you want is to sell above it and to buy below it.

This is the general rule, but when you are in a trending swing it is difficult & risky to buy away from the Vwap. I am not a big boy but I like to reduce risks by trading close to the vwap and set stops below/above LL or HH. This is how I trade:

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to redratsal for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #289 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


redratsal View Post
This is the general rule, but when you are in a trending swing it is difficult & risky to buy away from the Vwap. I am not a big boy but I like to reduce risks by trading close to the vwap and set stops below/above LL or HH. This is how I trade:

I strongly disagree. If you are in a a market that is trending higher/lower, you want to initiate/add, by buying weakness / selling strength, in the the direction of the prevailing trend. If we look at today as an example, 1300.00 is minus 2SD from the VWAP. IMO, that is a trade entry with a high probability of success.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #290 (permalink)
 redratsal 
Milan (I)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: FDAX,6E,CL,YM,NQ,ES
 
redratsal's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,215 given, 2,084 received


tigertrader View Post
I strongly disagree. If you are in a a market that is trending higher/lower, you want to initiate/add, by buying strength/ selling weakness, in the the direction of the prevailing trend. If we look at today as an example 1300.00 is minus 2SD from the VWAP. IMO, that is a trade entry with a high probability of success.

as long as we both win it is fine with me, what do I add if I trade one contract per instrument?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #291 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,585 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,079 given, 11,380 received


redratsal View Post
This is the general rule, but when you are in a trending swing it is difficult & risky to buy away from the Vwap. I am not a big boy but I like to reduce risks by trading close to the vwap and set stops below/above LL or HH. This is how I trade:

here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (1 Min)  3_23_2011.jpg
Views:	54
Size:	108.1 KB
ID:	35341  
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #292 (permalink)
 redratsal 
Milan (I)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: FDAX,6E,CL,YM,NQ,ES
 
redratsal's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,215 given, 2,084 received


Silvester17 View Post
here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

That is because of your DB, but my DB was on the VWap infact I traded and got 34 ticks. Again if we both win it is fine as long as we feel confortable with each others system.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #293 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


Silvester17 View Post
here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

The VWAP is a great reference point for intra-day trading, but by definition (average) it means that a trade at the VWAP will not be the cheapest or most expensive. When I am looking to initiate a position or swing trade, I already have an area identified as support or resistance, and my trade entry is based on that level, irrespective of the VWAP. When the market rotates to that level, I initiate the trade. The fact that 1300.00 was at an extreme (-2SD) was a positive sign to me, because I knew that there were going to be trapped shorts, that were going to fuel the ensuing rally. It also meant that I would probably have to take less heat than a trade placed at the VWAP.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #294 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

The market staged a strong reversal day rallying off the daily 20EMA and psychological 1300 level, once again testing the monthly pivot to the upside. As noted yesterday, Monday’s late day sell-off appeared to be EOM settlement related and an apparent bear trap, as the market snapped quickly back, trapping shorts in the process. The Fed today, conducted an even bigger reverse repo than yesterday, sending a clear signal that QE2 is over. In the face of this news, and the recent negative headline and economic news, the market continues to attempt to extend recent gains, demonstrating the bulls strength and resiliency. Tomorrow begins the employment trifecta with the release of the ADP Employment report, followed by Initial Claims on Thursday, and the BLS’s Employment Statistics on Friday. Bearish seasonality continues through Thursday, with the Treasury auction ending tomorrow and the last day of the month on Thursday, so along with the potential for an out-of-line employment statistic, lies the the possibility of another shakeout of weak longs. Friday sees strong bullish seasonality with the first day of the new month and quarter, and the release of the labor statistics.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (135 Min)  3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	148.5 KB
ID:	35381   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  8_11_2010 - 3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	38
Size:	117.8 KB
ID:	35382  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #295 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
Market Wizard
Berlin, Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,855 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,238 given, 26,743 received

Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	POMO.jpg
Views:	54
Size:	97.4 KB
ID:	35400  
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #296 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received


Fat Tails View Post
Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.


If Fibonacci levels were that reliable then everybody would be rich. Have you ever wonder what makes a level of support/resistance a reliable point of reference ? I am sure you have but nonetheless i think it's important to keep in mind.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #297 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
If Fibonacci levels were that reliable then everybody would be rich. Have you ever wonder what makes a level of support/resistance a reliable point of reference ? I am sure you have but nonetheless i think it's important to keep in mind.

If there is any tool in trading that is truly reliable, please let me know. Perhaps, Fat Tails can create an indicator that will give us the following day's close. I would only have to use it once and then I could pass it on to you.

As a aficionado of MP, I don't have to tell you, that ultimately, we are all trading the same thing - supply and demand; as they evolve over whatever time-frame we are trading. There are a myriad of ways of looking at supply and demand, i.e., Market Profile, Market Delta, candlesticks, etc., and different tools to help us, VWAP, pivots, fib levels, etc.

We all know that self-fulfilling prophecy plays a big role in all of the above, but in the end, does knowing why or why not something works, really matter? The important challenge is to become proficient with the various tools that are available, and then create your own approach and trading style that makes sense to you.

Mastering the ability to interpret price action, along with perfecting one's execution and risk management skills is far more promising than looking for ever more reasons to put on on not put on trades. As traders, all we can do is be patient and wait for the market to show it's structure before putting on a trade, relying on support/resistance from trading ranges and pre-planned price levels as potential targets.

A keen observation of price action allows you to interpret real-time shifts in supply and demand. This is not theory, nor the Thomas theorem at play. It is not dojis and evening star patterns, fib levels, an overbought RSI reading, or the POC. This is simply how the market is trading and the yin and yang of supply and demand in the market. Combine this skill with your subliminal data base of historical market tendencies, and you have created for yourself a reliable (as you are going to get) edge.


Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (1 Tick PointAndFigure)  3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	55
Size:	174.9 KB
ID:	35435   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	44
Size:	159.1 KB
ID:	35438   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (30 Min)  3_29_2011.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	87.6 KB
ID:	35443  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #298 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,996 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,672 given, 5,161 received


tigertrader View Post

If there is any tool in trading that is truly reliable, please let me know. ...

I think the dynamic profile tool in Market Delta and I/RT is by far the most reliable tool to 'objectively' spot where initiative buying/selling is taking place and where you would want to make business but unfortunately it is not available in Ninja.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #299 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Small caps continue to make new highs and are threatening to take out ‘07 pre-crash highs, while the broader market languished in a 5 point range / inside day. Going into the last day of the month a bit overextended, I was expecting to see a better effort by the market to partially fill the upside gap left by Wednesday’s opening, but would not be surprised to see that expected sell-off in tonight’s session. Tomorrow is of course, the BLS’s Employment Statistics release and the strong bullish seasonality associated with the report and the first day of the new month and quarter. The market has already rallied into the report, so both a positive or negative number could cause an early sell-off and a potential bear trap. However, I would look for the bulls to step up and support their position, in any event.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	TF 06-11 (Daily)  3_31_2010 - 4_1_2011.jpg
Views:	36
Size:	118.0 KB
ID:	35595   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (Daily)  3_31_2010 - 4_1_2011.jpg
Views:	45
Size:	121.3 KB
ID:	35596  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #300 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Looking to book profits @1337.00 level, with a possible small flip if divergences are present.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 06-11 (15 Min)  4_1_2011.jpg
Views:	41
Size:	186.3 KB
ID:	35657  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > ES and the Great POMO Rally


Last Updated on November 9, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts