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ES and the Great POMO Rally


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ES and the Great POMO Rally

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  #901 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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Going to head out. Taking profits here at 1235

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  #902 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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MFE wasn't too great on that trade. Maybe I should've set my stop and let it ride. ahh hindsight...working the system.

My system is still showing a hold right now with price below IB3
Potential profit take point at 1225 with a reload around 1235.
Below 1225 and go with the move.

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  #903 (permalink)
 josh 
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Massive l View Post
MFE wasn't too great on that trade. Maybe I should've set my stop and let it ride. ahh hindsight...working the system.

My system is still showing a hold right now with price below IB3
Potential profit take point at 1225 with a reload around 1235.
Below 1225 and go with the move.

Ah, can't worry about that--if it had come up into the high 40s you would have looked like a genius for your good exit, as it stands it looks like you left profit on the table. Knowing the best time to exit is impossible, so congrats on a good trade The safe stop to ride it out was above the last pivot high in the 38s, but again, you don't know in advance.

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  #904 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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Price is fading back towards the daily POC.
Potential short at 1235 if supply is there.
Otherwise, as mentioned, I'll look to go with the move below 1225.
Not looking for longs at the moment.

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 josh 
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Massive l View Post
Price is fading back towards the daily POC.
Potential short at 1235 if supply is there.
Otherwise, as mentioned, I'll look to go with the move below 1225.
Not looking for longs at the moment.

Why 35, curious? I see in your chart you have the orange box--what does that represent?

Based on the volume distribution for the day which is quite rounded, I don't see a good area right now I'd pick to short. Stopped right now at the VAL of 29.50, with the POC as you mentioned at 33, yet the volume is packed tightly into the 33 to 38ish range, with no clearly definable regions inside of that. To me, a short below 33 looks good, once above that hard to say.

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  #906 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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The yellow box is an area to look for price divergences between yesterday and today (tomorrow, New York)
I'm not sure what's going to happen there if anything. I could see maybe going long after 10am tomorrow at 1235.
IDK...lots can happen right now with all of the news going on right now

35 is my POC now. 33 was my POC on Monday that I used for my first target in my short from 1240 today.
No reason to say it's no in play now...I guess I need to look at the chart a little more. Thanks, sir!

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  #907 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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Massive l View Post
I could see maybe going long after 10am tomorrow at 1235.
IDK...lots can happen right now with all of the news going on right now

35 is my POC now. 33 was my POC on Monday that I used for my first target in my short from 1240 today.
No reason to say it's no in play now...I guess I need to look at the chart a little more. Thanks, sir!

Too bad calls only make money when you trade them

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  #908 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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It doesn't matter too much because it wasn't a live call (in here, it was in a chat) but I went long at 1241.
Just profit at 1250.5

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Shorting Stocks On These April POMO Days May Be Hazardous To Your Health | Zero Hedge



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  #910 (permalink)
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May's POMO schedule

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York



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  #911 (permalink)
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Treasuries broke to the upside last week Friday (April 26).


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Now... Assume No Fed | Zero Hedge

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The Fed continues to PO MO money into the market

No Tapering Any Time Soon As Fed Announces $45 Billion Of July POMO Days | Zero Hedge





Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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  #914 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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The Diminishing Effects Of QE Programs | Zero Hedge




Quoting 
As you can see during the first round of Quantitative Easing, which was also combined with a variety of artificial stimulus, bailout and support programs, the economy got a sharp boost from extremely depressed levels. The influx of liquidity stabilized the economy and production levels recovered. However, it is clear that after that initial boost, subsequent programs have done little other than to stabilize the economy while flooding the asset markets with liquidity. As shown, even with these programs in play, the current annualized growth trends of the data are showing clear deterioration. This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position of trying to exit support as the economy weakens.

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Savers And The 'Real' $10.8 Trillion Cost Of ZIRP | Zero Hedge

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 josh 
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wow

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  #917 (permalink)
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I got this in the junk mail today. But the chart with the 200 weekly MA was intriguing I thought:

mailer@infusionmail.com; on behalf of; Gains Pains and Capital [Publishing@gainspainscapital.com]

""""
Ben Bernanke has created the mother of all bubbles.

Today, the S&P 500 is sitting a full 30% above its
200-weekly moving average. We have NOT been
this overextended above this line at any point in
the last 10 years.

Indeed, if you compare where the S&P 500 is relative
to this line, we're even MORE overbought that we were
going into the 2007 peak at the top of the housing bubble.

We all know how bubbles end: BADLY.

This time will be no different. The last time a major bubble
of these proportions burst, we fell to break through this line
in a matter of weeks.

We then plunged into one of the worst market Crashes of
all time.

By today's metrics, this would mean the S&P 500 falling
to 1,300 then eventually plummeting to new lows.

This is not doom and gloom. This is a fact. The Fed
has created an even bigger bubble than the 2007 one.

The time to prepare for this is not once the collapse
begins, but NOW, while stocks are still rallying.
Stocks take their time moving up, but when they
crash it happens VERY quickly.

With that in mind, I've already urged my ( advisory)
clients to start prepping. We've opened six
targetted trades to profit from the stock bubble bursting.

""""

etc.

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Gotta love Rick...

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 Big Mike 
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Back on July 17, the New York Fed, which as always operates based on the decisions and inputs of its Primary Dealer superiors, asked the Dealer community for their thoughts on the Taper, specifically when and how much. The survey has come back and the PD community has spoken. The answer: Taper is announced, and begins, September with the first reduction in monthly purchases of $15 billion ($10Bn cut in TSY purchases, $5BN cut in MBS), eventually tapering to nothing in June 2014 when the Dealers believe QE formally ends.

The breakdown of the forecasts by percentile:




While several dealers noted that recent FOMC communications have influenced their expected path of asset purchases, several others highlighted that economic data will continue to determine the timing of reductions in purchase pace. Several dealers noted their expectation that pace reductions would occur at meetings followed by press conferences and the release of quarterly projections. Several dealers noted future reductions in the pace of each Treasury and MBS purchases are likely to be evenly split between both asset classes. Several dealers noted the possibility of reducing Treasury purchases at a faster pace than MBS purchases to provide support for the housing market, while several others suggested MBS purchases would see relatively larger declines due to possible market functioning issues in the MBS market.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/survey/2013/July_result.pdf

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New poll.

Will The Fed launch another round of QE soon? What will the effect be on the equity indexes?

Will The Fed launch another round of QE soon? What will the effect be on equity indexes?

Total votes: 208
 


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5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate - FRED - St. Louis Fed



5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate - FRED - St. Louis Fed



What Janet Yellen Doesn't Want You to Know About QE5 - TheStreet



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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-27/pomo-officially-dead-until-next-qe

The Day The POMO Died | Zero Hedge

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 Big Mike 
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Why The Fed Will End QE On Wednesday | Zero Hedge

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FOMC Ends The QE Dream, Keeps "Considerable" Period Hopes Alive - Full Statement Redline | Zero Hedge

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 Private Banker 
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With the end of the QE programs by the US FED, I thought it would be interesting to map where this thread started vs. where we are now. Quite startling to say the least. One thing I did see by briefly skimming through this thread was, what a great perspective in seeing how people (including my own) reacted throughout this large trend.

I joined this forum and started this thread a little over a year after leaving the institutional side of the business and this was I guess you could say, my first introduction into the retail trading world. Really interesting and enjoyable experience.

Cheers,
Ben



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