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Cycle Analysis... a way of looking at price action.
Well, as a piece of advice, let me offer the thought that you can't expect people to read and respond to your posts and the ideas/thoughts in your posts the way you want them to.
I have written more than a few posts on this forum. Sometimes just because it's my job as a moderator, but mostly as a trader offering suggestions when I think I can add something. I tend to offer the same suggestions again and again. Partly because it's what I have, partly because I see the same occasions for them, partly because people are going to only take what they like anyway, and partly because there's always a new crop of readers who come in to replace the ones who dropped away, and who haven't read it yet.
I do what I can, on terms that I can accept, and I don't ask for more. People will listen or not, will use them or not, will prosper from them or not. I am aware that sometimes, often probably, what I suggest will simply fall on infertile ground. That is OK with me -- if it were not, I wouldn't post at all. Sometimes what I offer is actually useful to someone, which makes me smile. I'm sure that no one takes anything I say in its entirety and uses it just the way I do. That would be both against human nature and against trader nature (which is an independent and highly individualistic subset of human nature.)
Do you have any idea how often I simply say to myself, "Screw it, what am I getting out of going onto that damn forum every day anyway?" (Especially since I became a mod, and had the job of herding these cats, or trying to....)
So I suggest you adjust your expectations of how others will take your posts so that you can live with and be reasonably happy with them. If you can't, you don't have to keep trying. If you can find a way for it to be OK with you, on your terms, that others may read (or not read) but not respond as you like, then the experience will be better for you. For this to happen, you may need to adjust your effort also. Whatever is needed and whatever works for you.
I think you have offered value here, as I have said. But I didn't dial you up this weekend either. It's not my thing. Like everyone else, I'll pretty much take a piece here and a piece there, from many sources, and if I can put them to use then I will. Otherwise they are just interesting side excursions... of course, I never know in advance which they will be, another reason for me to keep coming back here.
So, my advice is simply don't let your expectations, and your enthusiasm for your cycle method, interfere with the value to you of your posting, if your expectations of the response are not fulfilled. This may mean you adjust your expectations, or that you adjust, reduce or eliminate your efforts in posting, or that you do anything else that makes it or keeps it worthwhile to you. But you can't expect others to respond the way you would, or the way you would like them to.
Up to you, obviously.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
People often write on here about needing a mentor and where to find one and how they can't afford one. Glenn has consistently shown profitable trades that I've never seen the likes of by anyone else. When quite possibly one of the best traders around has offered free help and instruction, and in live time with the markets as well, I would think that he would have so many people sign up that he'd have to turn people away.
I took him up on his offer a while ago and he turned my trading around. I still have an emotional difficulty with trading live, but in demo trading I am reading the markets, thanks to cycle theory.
For example, just today I took 9 demo trades on the 6E, and limited myself to 10 ticks for a stop loss and 10 ticks for a profit because I'm practicing my entries. However, holding on to BE on these trades would have produced very large profits because I purposefully timed several of them with the larger moves made this morning.
1 loss for 10 ticks
1 exit at breakeven
7 trades exited for 10 ticks (one at 11).
I used only cycle theory for placing these trades.
It does require work, but I can look at a chart and see things going on that I never would have realized were there had I not studied cycle theory and it has been worth all the effort.
I have a feeling if Glenn charged what the going rate is for a mentor with his expertise, that he'd have more people sign up and they'd be willing to pay the astronomical fee. People don't seem to see the value in free. That's the only reason I have personally come up with for why there was little response.
Thanks @glennts for teaching me how to read a chart with accuracy!
Everyone has emotional difficulty with trading live. Many traders find it is the major thing they have to learn how to manage. It's at least as important as the particular method someone employs. A person needs to have both sides under control, the method and the personal response to risk and loss, which is one reason why even good traders often can't effectively teach others. It is also why people keep shifting from one method to another. A method is half the equation, and will not substitute for the other.
I am glad that you are having good sim success with cycles. My advice is that, just as soon as you can and as soon as you are emotionally confident and ready for it, you get off of sim and trade with actual money. Using the micro contracts is a fairly low-cost way to get into the game. Don't push it sooner than you are ready, but don't linger in sim either. Sim is safe, but trading is not, and that's why anyone and everyone has emotional difficulty with being live.
(By the way, this is one of the things I keep repeating over and over, and that, as I mentioned, people keep not really hearing. I hope you do.)
Good luck, and I'm glad cycles are helping you.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Bob... what comments I may make based on my expectations are not a reflection upon you.
That being said.
>>respond to your posts and the ideas/thoughts in your posts the way you want them to<<
No response is not the same as responses not in the way you want.
If you want to communicate effectively then one needs feedback to gauge how well ideas are being conveyed. Might there be an area that needs more elaboration? Is some part of the presentation far too complicated?
Without feedback there is no way improve upon the thread or even a way to determine is there any value here at all which, if your intent is to 'give back' and add value to nexusfi.com content, is a problem.
The comment you are responding to which is about the 'offer' is a different situation than the thrust of your post. In the 'offer' post, that people may only be here for a different perspective rather than to 'learn stuff' is recognized and accepted. The offer to do a live session was intended to measure the degree to which this is true and inform my decisions as to the future of this thread.
As to your advice that it is my choice. I'm an adult. I'm well aware of what my choices are. I realize your comments are well intended and they, as always, are appreciated.... and I apologize if my response is not in the way you might want it to be.
As to the one respondent to the "offer".
We talked for 4 hours before, during and after this morning's NY Open. We walked thru the making of this 24 Hr Cycle Low and discussed in detail the process of recognizing this turn for what it was. A trade opportunity was zeroed in on that had a 6 tick risk for a 198 tick gain. That would be $2,475 for those paying attention. This was open to anyone who responded to the "offer".
Like I said... I don't know why folks come to this thread.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
I don't mean to be critical of you at all, and apologize for perhaps making it sound that way, which is my mistake if it did sound that way. I want to encourage you to stay with it and to keep posting your stuff.
That's really all.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I follow the thread because I've never heard of cycle analysis or Hurst. The ideas you have presented are fascinating, but sometimes very dense. It seems like there are alot of layers to the onion, so I do come to the thread often to see what I can un-peel.
To that end, I thought it was very kind of you to offer a conference call during market hours to discuss the content of the thread. I would've enjoyed participating myself if not for the day job. I don't have a great deal of time to dedicate to learning to trade or to actually trading. (I trade the very early morning (Pacific Time) gold market, prior to heading into work.) One of the benefits of FIO is the amount of information that is consumable on request, whenever, wherever. I suspect there are a good number of us with time limitations.
Will the Multi-Day Cycle be correcting in time or in price?
When a Dominant Cycle corrects out of its High it can do so by either pushing lower in price in search of support or it can consolidate and build out as a Flag allowing support to develop underneath price as the number of buyers who are willing to pay higher prices increases.
In Dominate / Minor relationships the technicals representing the Minor Cycle time frame will become the Center of Rotation.
The significant of 4 360 Min bars as the typical count in a 24 hr Cycle rotation has been mentioned earlier in the thread.
Is price lifting up out of a 24 Hr Low?
The 60 Min bar count from the prior 24 Hr low to this recent Low is 24.
So, quite possibly.
Is this a time to get long?
Until this MD Flag is complete, price will continue to bounce between the upper and lower boundaries of the Flag. Volatility will be high... look at your 60 Min bars.
Breaking higher out of this still developing Flag would argue the MD correction is over ( edit: or the attempt to turn the MD Cycle has failed) and it will be a statement about the strength of the underlying trend.
Remember. The focus of the past several weeks has been on the possible turn up out of Multi-Year Low and the potential for the July candle to reach up several hundred points.
To the forces behind the MY Cycle rotation, what goes on down here in the 6 Hr and 24 Hr time frames is not even a speed bump.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
It's not my thing. Like everyone else, I'll pretty much take a piece here and a piece there, from many sources, and if I can put them to use then I will. Otherwise they are just interesting side excursions... of course, I never know in advance which they will be, another reason for me to keep coming back here.
