Factors influencing intraday Stock indexes futures moves - futures io
futures io



Factors influencing intraday Stock indexes futures moves


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
    1. trending_up 453 views
    2. thumb_up 5 thanks given
    3. group 5 followers
    1. forum 8 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Factors influencing intraday Stock indexes futures moves

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 brakkar 
Paris + France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 69 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 38 received

Hi,
I'm looking for factors influencing very short-term intraday price moves on stock indexes futures.
If you have experience with the following points please share your experience:

1) Other stock indexes:
Can a future (like ES) breaking a level sharply, trigger a reaction in another future (like NQ) even if NQ is in the middle of nowhere?

2) Is there any way the real underlying index (NOT ETF) behavior can affect the future? What to look for?

3) Can big liquidity levels attract price?
For those that can see all the limit order book (LOB) levels on the future or ETF, can those huge liquidity levels sitting there attract price? I heard it does, but was not able to experiment.

4) How can individual stock behavior be used in anticipating ES/NQ.... moves? Does looking at the largest cap stocks price of the S&P help at all? If they break a level, or have big liquidity level in the LOB... can it have immediate and useful repercussions on the future?


Also if you have any other observations related to the question of this thread, please share.

Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Moving Average Price Scan
ThinkOrSwim
TOS Fold Loop to NT8 For Loop
NinjaTrader
use of Ultimate Oscillator in NT8
NinjaTrader
Pinescript to EL conversion - ema cloud indicator
TradeStation
NT deleting my Strategies on charts
NinjaTrader
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #2 (permalink)
 matthew28 
Legendary Elite_Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw daytradr
Trading: US Equity Index Futures
 
matthew28's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,190 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 3,203 given, 2,386 received


brakkar View Post
Hi,
I'm looking for factors influencing very short-term intraday price moves on stock indexes futures.
If you have experience with the following points please share your experience:

1) Other stock indexes:
Can a future (like ES) breaking a level sharply, trigger a reaction in another future (like NQ) even if NQ is in the middle of nowhere?


Quite common I believe to watch the ES, NQ and YM together if trading one of them. For example, if the NQ is weak on the day as tech stocks have sold off for one reason or another then one might want to sell if the stronger ES makes a new high, the NQ will probably also briefly flick up and that could be an opportunity to get short as when the upward pressure fades the NQ is likely to fall back the hardest and attract more sellers doing so as the bias of the day was down.


Quoting 
4) How can individual stock behavior be used in anticipating ES/NQ.... moves? Does looking at the largest cap stocks price of the S&P help at all? If they break a level, or have big liquidity level in the LOB... can it have immediate and useful repercussions on the future?

I don't like the ES. The Nasdaq on the other hand is a smaller index of 100 rather than 500 and the top six stocks in that by weight make up 40% and they are all big tech names everybody knows. The S&P by comparison has 25 stocks making up the top 40%. (The Dow only has 30 stocks in its index and the top 40% is also six companies, but I prefer trading the NQ).
Company listings from here and click on Weight Analysis for each index to see it graphically https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100 ).

I tried signing up to stock data and looking at six little graphs but that didn't work, then some extra very narrow DOMs just showing current price moving up or down relative to each other but that didn't work right either. Then I tried TickStrike with no graphs, but a strip of six lights showing heavy buying or selling at that moment.

So a trade in the NQ might be if pressure is up and the large stocks are being bought also, then look for a flick back in the NQ to get long, or if looking at a chart and price is moving up to a level and looks like it might run through then buy if the stocks are confirming and exit if that confirming pressure dies.
Or if looking to fade wait for the pop up to exhaust and recent short term stock pressure to stop before selling.
Everybody uses tools differently and it would also depend on how short term the trades are intended to be or the timeframe of charts being used (if used).

Having said all that, I am careful to avoid appearing to give trading advice as I am not consistently profitable, so take this with a pinch of salt. Just meant as food for thought and a possible software suggestion to consider.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to matthew28 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 brakkar 
Paris + France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 69 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 38 received


Very interesting post it seems we are exploring the same kind of operations: spotting heavily biased order flow move on very short term scale.

Why do you prefer the NQ over the S&P or other instrument?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to brakkar for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 matthew28 
Legendary Elite_Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw daytradr
Trading: US Equity Index Futures
 
matthew28's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,190 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 3,203 given, 2,386 received

I dislike the ES because I seemed to rarely get filled on the favourable side of the spread unless it was slamming through me and I also struggled to get out.
The YM seemed to move like the ES and be a less volatile version of the NQ for the same tick value as the NQ so I would rather trade the NQ. Never tried the RTY, just use it as a reference. (ES and RTY as correlation references rather than the more common ES, NQ and YM together, partly because the YM is on the CBOT exchange whereas ES, NQ and RTY are all on the CME, but mostly because I found the YM seemed to move up and down similarly to the ES, so why look at both, whereas the RTY seemed like a nicer correlation trading the NQ).

I prefer the NQ because I can usually get filled on the favourable side of the spread with a flick back or if trading aggressively on the unfavourable side price moves far enough to make a profit.
Especially early in about the first hour of the RTH session. In that period I find there is more likely directional commitment and some volatility with directional price movement as people enter or exit aggressively. After that for me things become unclear with price just briefly sweeping one way or another further than I expect and then turning around and going back again, more passive fills and choppy and harder to recognise good areas to trade.

That's my experience anyway based on my market movement preferences. I am sure other people prefer the more two sided grind from the mid morning onwards. Also of course a lot of people prefer to trade the ES because they can get some size on, with the NQ for quick scalps because of the speed of fills and price moves, partial fills can be an issue on anything above a one lot.

Just my thoughts and experience. As I said I'm no expert.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to matthew28 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 brakkar 
Paris + France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 69 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 38 received

I used to trade the ES, but just started changing my setup to trade the NQ because I find the wider range in absolute ticks makes it easier to spot accelerations, consolidations, and continuous trends. I read more and more people are trading the NQ on scalping timeframe... there must be a reason.
I read about Gary Norden. I don't try to capture the spread on the NQ, as my goal is to enter on price spike and profit from price inertia. So hitting the ask is almost mandatory.

You mention the scaling limitation of the NQ. Indeed.
As a matter of fact, I started to look at the TQQQ also, which is a corresponding ETF. It's not a future sure, but still highly correlated to what we are trading and trades a HUGE amount of shares. It's the most traded instrument as per Finviz ranking by the number of shares traded. I didn't try it, but it MIGHT be a solution to the scaling issue for Nasdaq 100 trading.

Did you, or anyone else reading this try to apply orderflow trading on the TQQQ?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to brakkar for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
Platform: Ninja
Trading: ZN
 
Posts: 38 since Oct 2021
Thanks: 18 given, 16 received


brakkar View Post
I used to trade the ES, but just started changing my setup to trade the NQ because I find the wider range in absolute ticks makes it easier to spot accelerations, consolidations, and continuous trends. I read more and more people are trading the NQ on scalping timeframe... there must be a reason.

I read about Gary Norden. I don't try to capture the spread on the NQ, as my goal is to enter on price spike and profit from price inertia. So hitting the ask is almost mandatory.



You mention the scaling limitation of the NQ. Indeed.

As a matter of fact, I started to look at the TQQQ also, which is a corresponding ETF. It's not a future sure, but still highly correlated to what we are trading and trades a HUGE amount of shares. It's the most traded instrument as per Finviz ranking by the number of shares traded. I didn't try it, but it MIGHT be a solution to the scaling issue for Nasdaq 100 trading.



Did you, or anyone else reading this try to apply orderflow trading on the TQQQ?



Not getting filled on 2 lots? How many ticks would the target be?

I trade rty and no problem with slippage on 5-10 lot trades.. just curious what the targets are that you get partial fills on 2 lots?


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 brakkar 
Paris + France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 69 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 38 received


Nasdaq1517 View Post
Not getting filled on 2 lots? How many ticks would the target be?

I trade rty and no problem with slippage on 5-10 lot trades.. just curious what the targets are that you get partial fills on 2 lots?


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Sure 2 lots is no problem. But I would say it becomes problematic once you reach 10 lots size on NQ and plan to hold for seconds to minutes.
Particularly if you trade premarket.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 Nasdaq1517 
Honolulu Hawaii
 
Platform: Ninja
Trading: ZN
 
Posts: 38 since Oct 2021
Thanks: 18 given, 16 received

Gotcha completely agree! Yea anything other than es pre market will be tough and you start to really fight the spread


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 matthew28 
Legendary Elite_Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw daytradr
Trading: US Equity Index Futures
 
matthew28's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,190 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 3,203 given, 2,386 received


brakkar View Post
Did you, or anyone else reading this try to apply orderflow trading on the TQQQ?

No. I had never heard of it to be honest

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > Factors influencing intraday Stock indexes futures moves


Last Updated on May 27, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts