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Wanted to give this a shot and was curious if anyone has tried something similar. Yes i know its kamikaze as i need a 100% win rate, but its not impossibe.
Risking 64 ticks to scalp 3 on heavy contracts 200+. One trade per day
I watch the tape all day and I do see trades like that go by very fast for 1 tick on ES, but the vast majority of them also risk 1 tick, I have only been trading futures for a few months so don't quote me. But I do see an order entry for 100+ cons lets say at 4400 and instantly it will get stopped at 4399.75 for like half the cons, maybe they reduce risk and let the rest ride, I don't know, just saying what I notice.
" ...... as i need a 100% win rate, but its not impossibe."
"So you're telling me there's a chance?"
Of course it is possible for a certain amount of time but just think once that 64 ticks (not a typo 64?) stop loss hits how many more 3 tick wins you will need just to get back to breakeven.
Unless of course you think that whale of a loss won't happen for a few weeks/months/years. That is not possible, other than at a billion to one odds or something nutty like that.
At some point, you're going to buy the top or sell the bottom, and your 64 tick stop is going to get hit (which is $160k at 200 contracts). At which point, your psych capital is going to take an even bigger hit and its unlikely (tho not impossible, see what I did there) you will be able to recover.
Also, scalping 200+ contracts at once might move the market bc there's usually not that much liquidity on the best bid/ask, in the ES. Altho there are methods to address this, where you get slippage or incomplete fills depending on your order type.
Unless you can explain how you will always avoid buying the top or selling the bottom of a 16 point rotation, what you're asking is actually impossible over the long run. However, I've seen roulette tables hit the same color 50+ times in a row.
But if you do choose to do it, and you do only one trade per day, please video record your trading everyday (including whatever pre and post market prep you do), and post daily to YouTube, verifying live account et cetera. You may make enough in ad revenue to offset your 64-tick stop out.
Assumptions: let's set aside your position size, assume you only take full stop outs or full targets, no early exits, and assume you have enough capital in the account that your FCM won't auto-liquidate before hitting your full stop.
If I'm doing my math right, you'd have to win on 22 trades to breakeven. Let's just round up to 23 trades to cover commissions, slippage, et al. After winning 23 times in a row, you'd have gained approx what you'd lose on one full stop out of 64 ticks.
Let's assume you make it to promised land and prevail 23 times in a row without experiencing a single stop out.
Next, withdraw the amount of money of one full stop out (i.e., 64 ticks at whatever position size, plus some to cover slippage on your stop), put it into a liquid bank acct sitting there for when a full stop eventually hits.
Once you have your full top amount set aside into a segregated acct, continue trading once per day and withdraw your gains weekly until a full stop eventually hits.
When the full stop hits, either stop all this shenanigans or re-fund your trading account with the funds you set aside to cover a full stop . . . and try to hit pay dirt 23 times in a row without a stop out. Rinse and repeat.
If I was old, bored, and didn't care about the future, I would love doing this right up until a full stop hit on my second or third trade. lols.
Edit . . . also don't forget to set aside uncle sam's cut. He will put you in jail prison.
The VERY FIRST question should come into anyone's mind whether you trade one lot or one million lots:
How much are you risking to make how much?
In your case, if that is not a typo, you're risking SIXTY FOUR ticks to make a meager THREE ticks? Really?
One of the worst risk to reward ratio I have ever seen and heard. Ever.
The thing is, does not matter which market you trade, there is absolutely NO Holy Grail. So, as someone explained above that you need approx. 23 trades to breakeven, ask yourself in the mirror when you read this: Is it really possible to get 100% wins while trading?
Even then, once your stop hits, all your 23 winners will just go down the drain.
Think about it.
Now you still want to trade with 200+ lots with your methodology?
How about this for a strategy: look at the opening print and determine in the first 30 seconds of trade what the typical deviation is from that print (to the upside and downside). That should help you get that 3 ticks up a little, and the 64 lower. Do this over a wide number of days, and determine how often a stop of X ticks will get hit, and determine what your expectancy is based on a Y tick target. That way you're at least creating some edge. I am guessing you came up with 3 and 64 through some means other than just pulling them out of thin air, but I can't be sure.
As said in an earlier post, that's a $160k stop loss, so you actually have at least $500k, ideally a lot more, sat in your trading account ready to go?
Instead of imagining being a 200 lots trader, why don't you tell us what your results were when you traded this system using one lot to provide yourself with at least a basic real-time statistical analysis. As you will need about 25 wins to cover a loss I would have thought you would want a real time sample of at least half a year ideally more. I am guessing you haven't done that, or any back tests.
You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
