Hey,

From studying Charts I saw that Up-Gaps in DAX often close at the same DAY.
Do you guys see something similar ?
How could we use or implement this in the strategy or built a strategy around it?
(true= probabillity is high that if the dax gaps up, the gap closes on the same day)

would be happy to hear some thoughts from you guys.

Hi @OG65

In my pattern trading which is based upon the day of week and time I am treating gaps very carefully. As I have rules for every weekday I do exclude to look at gaps on Mondays, Fridays or when previous day range exceeds 250 points. A gap on my definition is when IB range (first 30m) after cash opening gets not back to the previous day high or low - to close it. So some levels haven't been traded and are waiting to be touched later.
Those patterns are very helpful to get the best times to start and to close the trade. Plus most important the direction for the trade: long or short. On rare days when a down gap is more away than 100% of previous day's range I am using another rule. So the accuracy is refined.
Interestingly the found rules are working fine for more than 12 years on the DAX. without refining them much.

The approach of @Deetee is of course totally different to mine. He is checking back data to find probability and probability of occurrence in volume and percentage given the database. I am just breaking down a pattern on every weekday and connect it with my special rules for gaps like described above: pattern alone or pattern combined with a gap gives me different entry and exit time. That easy. Just that I am not using any bunch of historical data at all. To complicate it a bit: I check if the start of IB - is it in Ichimoku Kumo 30m/60m/daily or not. All that I need to prepare before the trade starts. You can read all in my journal: the preparation of the day, the start of the trade and then before taking the trade: direction, start and end time. For the reader a live journal is much better than a hindsight one.

GFIs1

Thanks. I read some pieces of information, that are not written anywhere in your journal, that might can help me

Are you able to work with Excel (making formulas with IF and VLOOKUP, pivot tables and stuff)?
If you want, I can provide you with 30 minute data for FDAX from 2010. That gives you something to play with, see if you find some significant outcomes, that might lead to trading

Hi @OG65

In my pattern trading which is based upon the day of week and time I am treating gaps very carefully. As I have rules for every weekday I do exclude to look at gaps on Mondays, Fridays or when previous day range exceeds 250 points. A gap on my definition is when IB range (first 30m) after cash opening gets not back to the previous day high or low - to close it. So some levels haven't been traded and are waiting to be touched later.
Those patterns are very helpful to get the best times to start and to close the trade. Plus most important the direction for the trade: long or short. On rare days when a down gap is more away than 100% of previous day's range I am using another rule. So the accuracy is refined.
Interestingly the found rules are working fine for more than 12 years on the DAX. without refining them much.

The approach of @Deetee is of course totally different to mine. He is checking back data to find probability and probability of occurrence in volume and percentage given the database. I am just breaking down a pattern on every weekday and connect it with my special rules for gaps like described above: pattern alone or pattern combined with a gap gives me different entry and exit time. That easy. Just that I am not using any bunch of historical data at all. To complicate it a bit: I check if the start of IB - is it in Ichimoku Kumo 30m/60m/daily or not. All that I need to prepare before the trade starts. You can read all in my journal: the preparation of the day, the start of the trade and then before taking the trade: direction, start and end time. For the reader a live journal is much better than a hindsight one.

GFIs1

Hi @OG65

In my pattern trading which is based upon the day of week and time I am treating gaps very carefully. As I have rules for every weekday I do exclude to look at gaps on Mondays, Fridays or when previous day range exceeds 250 points. A gap on my definition is when IB range (first 30m) after cash opening gets not back to the previous day high or low - to close it. So some levels haven't been traded and are waiting to be touched later.
Those patterns are very helpful to get the best times to start and to close the trade. Plus most important the direction for the trade: long or short. On rare days when a down gap is more away than 100% of previous day's range I am using another rule. So the accuracy is refined.
Interestingly the found rules are working fine for more than 12 years on the DAX. without refining them much.

The approach of @Deetee is of course totally different to mine. He is checking back data to find probability and probability of occurrence in volume and percentage given the database. I am just breaking down a pattern on every weekday and connect it with my special rules for gaps like described above: pattern alone or pattern combined with a gap gives me different entry and exit time. That easy. Just that I am not using any bunch of historical data at all. To complicate it a bit: I check if the start of IB - is it in Ichimoku Kumo 30m/60m/daily or not. All that I need to prepare before the trade starts. You can read all in my journal: the preparation of the day, the start of the trade and then before taking the trade: direction, start and end time. For the reader a live journal is much better than a hindsight one.

GFIs1

HEY,
really interesting how did you learn this kind of skill to create a own startegy?