Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
good question. if you catch a big swing it will negate a lot of misses and then some. I would guess most swing and trend traders have much less than 50% win rate as the market so frequently stalls or goes the other way.
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
I am kind of a hybrid between swing trading and scalping. It is true that with swing trading, you can lose more than you win. I have a win rate of about 65%. My average loss is 20 ticks and my average win is 30 ticks. I consider myself a partial swing trader because I rely on the runners to pay for the losses.
Thanks for clarifying, I thought I was misunderstanding something (which happens a LOT to me!)...
I have strategies with 10-20% winning percentage, and they are just fine.
The key is positive expectancy, which is a fancy way of saying "positive average trade."
avg trade = win % * avg win - lose % * avg loss
So in your case:
avg trade = expectancy = .65*30 - .35*20 = +12.5 which is good (especially if that is net of slippage and commissions)
Tharp Expectnacy is a value I look at, anything over 0.2 is pretty good. It is avg trade / avg losing trade = 12.5/20 = 0.625 for you, again really good if this is NET performance
I find winning percentage, by itself, is valuable/important primarily if you are trading one or 2 strategies. Trading a 10% winning strategy would be emotionally exhausting by itself. But that strategy is easy to trade in a portfolio of 10-20 strategies.
No worries, I was pretty vague. Are you using fully automated strategies?
I agree completely as this is the only strategy I trade. That is a rough estimate of my performance, but not including commissions, although commissions are pretty insignificant with my strategy.