NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





For the Traders that are Profitable


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one cmtn0113 with 4 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two kevinkdog with 3 posts (6 thanks)
    3. looks_3 MNSTrading with 2 posts (4 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fonz with 1 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SBtrader82 with 6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two lightsun47 with 4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 kevinkdog with 2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 MNSTrading with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 4,800 views
    2. thumb_up 25 thanks given
    3. group 14 followers
    1. forum 16 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

For the Traders that are Profitable

  #11 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 336


kevinkdog View Post
Why do you have to win more than half the time?

good question. if you catch a big swing it will negate a lot of misses and then some. I would guess most swing and trend traders have much less than 50% win rate as the market so frequently stalls or goes the other way.

Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Build trailing stop for micro index(s)
Psychology and Money Management
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
 
  #12 (permalink)
cmtn0113
Providence RI
 
Posts: 20 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 9


kevinkdog View Post
Why do you have to win more than half the time?

I am kind of a hybrid between swing trading and scalping. It is true that with swing trading, you can lose more than you win. I have a win rate of about 65%. My average loss is 20 ticks and my average win is 30 ticks. I consider myself a partial swing trader because I rely on the runners to pay for the losses.

Reply With Quote
  #13 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,647 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,890
Thanks Received: 7,338



cmtn0113 View Post
Not exactly half of the time, but if your accuracy is low, the losses can add up. I have a win rate of about 65%. My average loss is 20 ticks and my average win is 30 ticks.

Thanks for clarifying, I thought I was misunderstanding something (which happens a LOT to me!)...

I have strategies with 10-20% winning percentage, and they are just fine.

The key is positive expectancy, which is a fancy way of saying "positive average trade."

avg trade = win % * avg win - lose % * avg loss


So in your case:

avg trade = expectancy = .65*30 - .35*20 = +12.5 which is good (especially if that is net of slippage and commissions)

Tharp Expectnacy is a value I look at, anything over 0.2 is pretty good. It is avg trade / avg losing trade = 12.5/20 = 0.625 for you, again really good if this is NET performance


I find winning percentage, by itself, is valuable/important primarily if you are trading one or 2 strategies. Trading a 10% winning strategy would be emotionally exhausting by itself. But that strategy is easy to trade in a portfolio of 10-20 strategies.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)
cmtn0113
Providence RI
 
Posts: 20 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 9


kevinkdog View Post
Thanks for clarifying, I thought I was misunderstanding something (which happens a LOT to me!)...

I have strategies with 10-20% winning percentage, and they are just fine.

The key is positive expectancy, which is a fancy way of saying "positive average trade."

avg trade = win % * avg win - lose % * avg loss


So in your case:

avg trade = expectancy = .65*30 - .35*20 = +12.5 which is good (especially if that is net of slippage and commissions)

Tharp Expectnacy is a value I look at, anything over 0.2 is pretty good. It is avg trade / avg losing trade = 12.5/20 = 0.625 for you, again really good if this is NET performance


I find winning percentage, by itself, is valuable/important primarily if you are trading one or 2 strategies. Trading a 10% winning strategy would be emotionally exhausting by itself. But that strategy is easy to trade in a portfolio of 10-20 strategies.

No worries, I was pretty vague. Are you using fully automated strategies?

I agree completely as this is the only strategy I trade. That is a rough estimate of my performance, but not including commissions, although commissions are pretty insignificant with my strategy.

Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,647 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,890
Thanks Received: 7,338


cmtn0113 View Post
No worries, I was pretty vague. Are you using fully automated strategies?

I agree completely as this is the only strategy I trade. That is a rough estimate of my performance, but not including commissions, although commissions are pretty insignificant with my strategy.

Yes, my strategies are fully automated.

I hope your stats keep up at that pace!

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)
cmtn0113
Providence RI
 
Posts: 20 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 9


kevinkdog View Post
Yes, my strategies are fully automated.

I hope your stats keep up at that pace!


Nice! I am going to automate my strategy in the future, it is just tricky because of all of the small nuances.

Thanks, I wish you luck as well!

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #17 (permalink)
 
Anagami's Avatar
 Anagami 
Cancun, Mexico
Legendary Market Hustler
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: MES
Posts: 978 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 707
Thanks Received: 2,300


58LesPaul View Post
For you guys/gals that trade for a living, are you in the green every day? If not are you in the green at the end of each week? Or do you have bad weeks and make it up another week to end up in the green for the month?

Just wondering if I ever get started trading what can I expect as far as this is concerned.

Thanks

Not green every day. Green 70% of the days and 70% of the weeks, which roughly reflects my win rates.

You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on June 23, 2021


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts