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Yeah that is just an idea, not a real trading strategy :-) as I mentioned earlier, on some weeks you will have to sit on your hands waiting on the side, while on some others just go short.
You definitely need a signal.
For that, if I may, I would recommend you get a glimps on GFIs1's journal/strategy
... by always having a stop loss on any open position - that triggers after hours and is GTC as well
... by position sizing adequately to your account net liquidation value
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
I normally initiate trades intra-day as day trades. If I manage to catch good entries (at the edges), then I keep a part of it longer term and scale out at various minor levels. Since this market is one time framing up relentlessly, the balance area theory works well to set targets, as there is no history to determine resistance levels. ES tends to move in increments of 117 points (Balance areas) in steps of 1/8ths. (apologies to Gann/Murrey). If you have a working system for entries, this gives you macro picture of where price may move to.
Current Balance Area spans from 4126.00 to 4243.00. Still holding runners from 4126.00, as price moves towards midpoint 4184.50 (almost got to it on Friday). ES tends to balance in mid point areas before moving up or down to BA boundaries. This strategy requires trading multiple contracts - one can try with MES and move on to ES when confident.
You can see the validity of this approach during this bull market from the daily chart of ES below. You can see how price pauses at mid-points, probes lower areas. It is even more noticeable in intra-day charts. So if you are trading longer term and have well-defined risk parameters, it can be very consistently profitable.
I do on occasion take long term duration futures positions. Usually long after significant sell-off. Be careful doing this., and if you do, use the "less liquid" back month. If you look historically there are several cases of sell-offs that don't return to their original level for 3 or 4 months. Remember, all futures have expiration dates, whereas stock does not. If you buy front month futures that expire in 45 days and you are caught holding it during a sell-off, you will be forced to take a (perhaps large) leveraged loss. Consider hedging always.
The numbers often align with measured move targets, sometimes important fib levels. I have to think algos are using these levels in some way. Magnets if there is confluence of several methods pointing the same way.
