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Are sharks watching on the other side?


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Are sharks watching on the other side?

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  #1 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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lamass's Avatar
 
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Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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big banks, institutions and hedgefunds are all watching your ultra, micro, baby account and trade against you

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  #4 (permalink)
New York City + NY/United States
 
 
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You can use simulated stop loss and market if touch profit targets so that the broker and exchange do not see your resting orders. With a simulated stop loss, the order only lives on your local chart, and is sent as a market order when the price condition is met. Hedge funds won't know where your stops are so you shouldn't feel that they are manipulating the price just to take your money
lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

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  #5 (permalink)
Hartford, CT. USA
 
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Algo Sharks are always watching. You by yourself are not big enough to be noticed. If a hundred other traders are making the same trade as you, now you are in trouble. You know the sharks are there. Take the trade that they are taking. Otherwise, you are just bait.

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  #6 (permalink)
New York City + NY/United States
 
 
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I agree with take the trades the sharks take!

Become a trap trader!
If you feel like you're always being stopped out just before a large swing into the other direction, then stop jumping in too soon. Instead spot your entry as you normally do, but do not enter! Instead now wait for the sharks to trap people like you before, then afterwards watch the price reverse and get in at this point

Ez pz


RJay View Post
Algo Sharks are always watching. You by yourself are not big enough to be noticed. If a hundred other traders are making the same trade as you, now you are in trouble. You know the sharks are there. Take the trade that they are taking. Otherwise, you are just bait.

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  #7 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
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There is a constant evolving metagame being played with technicals. Robots backtest to see what strategies are working recently, and attempt to switch strategies based on what is working. Other robots attempt to determine what will be popular next so they can counter the meta.

So when you have something that works, it's usually a matter of time before the market figures it out. The nature of edge is such that they're always working to arbitrage any market inefficiencies. There's lots of ways that the market adjusts for this. For instance, trades with high probability usually move more when they fail. But a lot of the strategies that tape readers find balance out by having bad draw-downs. So the strategy will work great for 3 months, and then all the sudden you lose every time.

Which is why I just don't think it works long term to trade on pure technicals. You should understand the environment you are in, and why it leads to that particular setup working well. Lately we've had an environment where almost everything works. So I think you know where that goes...

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  #8 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Open two accounts. Take offsetting positions in each of them. Observe that one will be in profit, one will be in loss. Hopefully this cures you from the paranoia that "they" care about you. Yes, liquidity runs are made, and yes, it's to trap traders and find liquidity. But it's not for you -- just for you and others who thought like you did at the time.

But let's back up. The market's job is to facilitate trade. Orders to sell and buy are placed. This moves the market. Algos, who are the dominant force in the market now, do make 'predatory' moves in order to seek liquidity and profit; but, largely, they are merely there to fill orders in response to market conditions. For example, a large fund has an automated system that will sell a holding if the stock drops below its 200D MA. The algo may be a simple VWAP algo ... it may be something like "sell to fill above VWAP; if the market gets below the VWAP by X%, sell at the market (to fill the order even at unfavorable prices)" ... it has a job to do and will do whatever it's programmed to do, to fill the order. That's it. This particular algo is not out to get you.

As a practical rule of thumb (1) place your order to buy or sell, and (2) note where your stop would be. Now (3) cancel your order, and (4) place your order where your stop was going to be as observed in #2.

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  #9 (permalink)
Detroit MI/USA
 
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The past week the markets have been stuck churning sideways. Do your techniques account for prolonged sideways action? Important to trade current market conditions with the correct type of strategy.

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  #10 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?

Other people have commented, often with better responses than mine will be. But my only contribution is that your account is just not that important for any of the big players to want to take your money. There just isn't enough money there. Nor for your broker to have any incentive to sell the information about what you are doing. I'm not trying to run you down, because my account is not important enough either.

Unless, as @Big Mike asked, you are not trading in actual futures but in CFD's, then the market just doesn't work the way you suppose. I'm not saying this because I am too rosy-eyed about the market (which is, as we should all know, totally cutthroat), but because you, and I, are not a big prize. I don't think that "they" are after the big accounts either, but why would they want yours? This is a realistic question.

I and every other trader has had a similar type of experience that you describe. One possibility is that you (and I) are in fact the target of evil doing, as you said. Another is that we make bad trades sometimes, even if they are just like the other, successful ones. I have certainly thought about the "do the opposite of what I'm doing" idea, but when I thought about how to implement that I broke down and laughed. What solves the problem is to realize whatever you are doing that puts you in the wrong position, and act differently. If you put a buy or sell order at the same spot that most other traders do, then your order will be matched, of course, but who will then drive price up/down in your direction so you will profit? If you run with the crowd, you will not beat it.

I don't have concrete advice, and perhaps (probably?) you will ignore what I have said. But really, forget the idea that "they" are out for you, and find out what works for you as a trader. Since you have had periods when you have done well, the best thing is to look at what changed in the market that made your trade choices not succeed. Something did. Find that and your issue with "them" will go away, because "they" don't care about you anyway, and don't know you are there, just as they don't know I am there either.

If you are willing to be responsible for your trading, you can find out why it sometimes works and sometimes does not -- a phenomenon we all experience. Then you can change the cycle, which I hope you do.

I do want you to succeed. I hope you will take what I have said seriously and see if you can make some changes and move past these issues.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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bobwest View Post
If you put a buy or sell order at the same spot that most other traders do, then your order will be matched, of course, but who will then drive price up/down in your direction so you will profit? If you run with the crowd, you will not beat it.


In the short term, and in some cases, the long term, the primary driver of a market is almost always positioning. Everything is positioning... it's why we get rallies on bad news, and selling on good news; it's the reason why so many people are frustrated so much of the time. They don't understand positioning. In a nutshell, it's what trading is all about.

It's the same as in texas hold'em (which I'm not an expert in, I confess!). There are times when you bet large to scare everybody off. But often, your goal is to get everybody else big, when you have a great hand. Poker is about playing the other players, not about the cards you have. You are paid by others. Same in the market -- you are not paid to buy good news or sell bad news.. any idiot can do that. You are paid to literally take the money from someone else when they are too big and have a bad hand (relative to yours).

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  #12 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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Of course! But it became illogical and I became irrational when after 6-7 trades with 70% chance and 3 completely random trades all turned against me- but instantly. If I or anybody wanted to have that result would have been almost impossible. Well, now the almost became Reality.
I do remember: I said to myself: put 15K, now the CL is low- wait a bit more to fall and then Buy. And stick with it. I didnít do it. And that was the week when CL went negative- do I would had been wiped. And of course think: it was for me.
But itís uncanny how much more often is not in my favor.
Thank you for all the advise from everybody! Even the facetious was on target.
Taking responsibility, watching the internal process, the subtle and overt changes and all other contributing factors is the Only Way.

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  #13 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
And of course think: it was for me.
But itís uncanny how much more often is not in my favor.


You get it, which is good. To drive the point home: any time you are focused on yourself -- except from the standpoint of monitoring your mood/emotions/etc., which is critical -- you are not focused on the market. And the market is all that matters. So cliche, but so true. My opinion, past experience, amount of capital, emotional baggage, previous trade, relationship with my brother ... all that stuff is just 100% irrelevant to the market, and the moment I think the market knows or cares about me the least little bit, I've already lost, because I'm not focused on what matters.

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  #14 (permalink)
Market Chamois
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lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.

You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.

You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.

You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.

You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.

Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.

You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money.

Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now.

Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade.

Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat.

I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said.

This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself.

Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining.

Ron

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #15 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
But it became illogical and I became irrational when after 6-7 trades with 70% chance and 3 completely random trades all turned against me- but instantly. If I or anybody wanted to have that result would have been almost impossible.

An individual trade won't have a 70% chance of success. An individual trade can either go up or down so it is 50% probability. If you have a system that averages 70% win rate that is only valid if based on a large enough sample size to be valid.
I just flipped a coin a number of times. Within eight flips I had three tails in a row. I didn't assume the coin was weighted against me. Three same results in a row has a 12.5% chance of occurring in a string of random events.
The fact your method is now losing suggests your 70% win rate came from a sample size that was: too small, based on a trade sample taken from a non diverse range of market conditions, or if it only works in one type of market, not stopped when the market isn't trading in that way; or you aren't taking the trades consistently.
"They" are not out to get you. The market is there purely to facilitate trade and go up until it finds sellers, go down until it finds buyers and constantly find a price where both sides are happy to trade.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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  #16 (permalink)
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
 
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If you see / visualize , think about , fear or have any shark related experiences while trading i suggest you cut back on the coffee or anything with coffee like effects ( wink wink )

You have issues and they got nothing to do with trading , think psychotic type afflictions .

Resume the paranoia

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  #17 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
 
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TWDsje View Post
There is a constant evolving metagame being played with technicals. Robots backtest to see what strategies are working recently, and attempt to switch strategies based on what is working. Other robots attempt to determine what will be popular next so they can counter the meta.

So when you have something that works, it's usually a matter of time before the market figures it out. The nature of edge is such that they're always working to arbitrage any market inefficiencies. There's lots of ways that the market adjusts for this. For instance, trades with high probability usually move more when they fail. But a lot of the strategies that tape readers find balance out by having bad draw-downs. So the strategy will work great for 3 months, and then all the sudden you lose every time.

Which is why I just don't think it works long term to trade on pure technicals. You should understand the environment you are in, and why it leads to that particular setup working well. Lately we've had an environment where almost everything works. So I think you know where that goes...

Excuse me and not advertising, but the counter trend system I use is still working after almost a decade in the market and will continue working forever - because it's designed to enter trades after an exhaustion in any market. And as everybody knows, this will be there forever as any market on a short time frame cannot run in just one direction - there is an exhaustion after X amount of minutes. That's where I capitalize - majority of times when the trades work in favour, not since a year or something but on a longer time frame.

Of course I never win a hundred percent (instead minimize the risk) all the times, but who does apart from the big boys anyways?

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  #18 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
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lightsun47 View Post
Excuse me and not advertising, but the counter trend system I use is still working after almost a decade in the market and will continue working forever - because it's designed to enter trades after an exhaustion in any market. And as everybody knows, this will be there forever as any market on a short time frame cannot run in just one direction - there is an exhaustion after X amount of minutes. That's where I capitalize - majority of times when the trades work in favour, not since a year or something but on a longer time frame.

Of course I never win a hundred percent (instead minimize the risk) all the times, but who does apart from the big boys anyways?

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Prove it.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Blash View Post
Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.

You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.

You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.

You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.

You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.

Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.

You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money.

Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now.

Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade.

Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat.

I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said.

This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself.

Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining.

Ron


One of the best posts I've read in a long time and couldn't put it any better. Should make it sticky. Nice one

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  #20 (permalink)
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TWDsje View Post
Prove it.

I ain't a vendor trying to sell anything. Whatever I use, at least won't go away like I said before.

If I happy, I am happy. I don't have to show you my personal statements or anything to prove anything.

P.S. Whatever you had said might be true, but not 100% always, because there will be ways to counter strike the 'bots' too.

There's always a way.

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  #21 (permalink)
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Ozquant View Post
If you see / visualize , think about , fear or have any shark related experiences while trading i suggest you cut back on the coffee or anything with coffee like effects ( wink wink )

You have issues and they got nothing to do with trading , think psychotic type afflictions .

Resume the paranoia

Neither inventive nor helpful nor funny what you said. (wink, wink)
But for the sake of Truth, here is my Real (non substance induced) paranoia: Look at that image; if i or anybody wanted to aim for it would not be so precise. And you are telling me its not Manipulated?
Of course, we know squizes, fake rallies, fake breakouts, etc... But this is something else. It is like being watched, by a precise AI bot, that knows what thousands small participators are doing at the same time, and calculates what's the most optimal way to squeeze all of them, to deprive them opportunity to get out, or to alltogether capitulate them: all within a frame of certain time. I even averaged this so my price became 22- yet 22 was barely touched- the Bot had to tend to other needs as well, even though it "took care" of me. Of course, retail Brokers must work with in partnership with those Big House AI's bots to disclose accounts, saldo, positions- all realtime. Now that, if it is true- should be Regulated to become Illegal, if it is not already.

Listen: I was trading Forex- had the same feeling of Being Watched (please make no unsavory jokes of that silly expression- not because it hurts me, but dilutes attention from the Subject- or maybe that's what you want- if you are a retail broker or somebody that works for them). Then, few years later, there was a Law suit against the Vagrants Or Bandits (something like that was called their internal Group made of International Traders. Banks paid Billions in damages, I got some reimbursement as well. If it is Money, people will find a way around. It's almost given. But I want to see those same traders without the fat accounts or IA Bots or the Life Data from retail brokers. I do not mind even the AI bots or fat accounts; the disclosure of our miniscule accounts without retail knowledge or permission is what Bothers me. If not illegal already, should be Regulated ASAP.

There is no way statistically to achieve such pinpoint accuracy any other way, but by being watched, realtime calculated and optimized as to what and how to inflict optimal damage.
I wrote letter to our political Reps, to find out what is permissible and what not.
This is Dog-eat-dog game, but the ground game and context must be Transparent.
Let the strong or smart or lucky or tough or nimble dog win. But do not poison your gloves or terrain on which i step, while boxing against me, without prior disclosure. Why hide then?

Is this too much to ask?

I also want to thank [most of the members] for giving their [honest] opinion and view!
You know who you are!

Manipulated_Markets

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  #22 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
Look at that image; if i or anybody wanted to aim for it would not be so precise. And you are telling me its not Manipulated?

What a coincidence ... here is my execution for that same period:



Since I sold almost exactly when you bought, what does it mean? Am I manipulating you? Well, not directly, but yes, my goal was to take the money (by selling to you) from people like you who bought there.

Why did I sell there at 27 when you bought?

  1. I've lived on the other side of the squeeze, and I know what pain feels like. I've figuratively given my blood, sweat, and tears to the market through experience, so it's unmistakable. I could feel it, and thought it was time to sell there.
  2. I know that late shorts who missed the initial push down have sold lower and can't take a 10 point squeeze, and they are bailing.
  3. I know that hopeful bottom pickers who should have bought when it was hard to do so but didn't, are feeling FOMO right about there and they are certain that it will break back above 30, and they are positioning for it. On such a strong down day, it's not advisable to buy so far off the low while the shorts are still active.
I suggest you turn your attention away from politicians with your complaints, and look inward at the real enemy -- your ego. You are so certain that the market is "manipulated" that you can't bear the thought that you are just the sucker at the time who bought the high. It happens to all of us. Get over it.


If you look at my buys at 3017, you'll see that I also got washed out at 3013 like you did. If I had been you, I would have immediately written a letter to my local politicians. But instead, I hypothesized that the market was still a buy there, and I bought, and was positive on that sequence.

To get better, you need to ask yourself: "why did I buy there?" and "why did I sell there?" The key is that Y O U bought, and Y O U sold. Every time you look for the boogeyman when you have a losing trade, it's that much more time you could instead be focusing on the real problem -- your ego.

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  #23 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
But for the sake of Truth, here is my Real (non substance induced) paranoia: Look at that image; if i or anybody wanted to aim for it would not be so precise. And you are telling me its not Manipulated?
...
There is no way statistically to achieve such pinpoint accuracy any other way, but by being watched, realtime calculated and optimized as to what and how to inflict optimal damage.


josh View Post
What a coincidence ... here is my execution for that same period:

...

Since I sold almost exactly when you bought, what does it mean? Am I manipulating you? Well, not directly, but yes, my goal was to take the money (by selling to you) from people like you who bought there.

Why did I sell there at 27 when you bought?

....

To get better, you need to ask yourself: "why did I buy there?" and "why did I sell there?" The key is that Y O U bought, and Y O U sold. Every time you look for the boogeyman when you have a losing trade, it's that much more time you could instead be focusing on the real problem -- your ego.

I have had the experience, even in sim, of buying at the exact top, and selling at the exact bottom, and relatively often. Since it was sim, there was no order sent anywhere, no one knew about my trade (since it only existed on my computer) and no one was picking off my trade. There wasn't a trade, just a trader, myself, buying at the point of maximum hope, optimism and fear of missing out. Along with a whole bunch of other traders acting on the exact same motivations, which is part of why it was a top: the buyers were all bought up, but there were plenty of sellers left.

This is somewhat like swimming toward the sharks. And it works perfectly when I am on sim and there is no one involved but me. Me reading the chart and the action wrong, as well as succumbing to my emotional trading urges. Funny, when I stopped trading that way, I stopped trading at the tops (and the lows, too) any more. (Well, not to give myself too much credit, not as much as before. )

I don't mean to make light of your experience, your loss and your pain. I have been there in live trading too, and the money lost is truly gone and it hurts, emotionally and often financially. I have lost money I simply couldn't afford to lose, but it was lost and I couldn't understand why. But I would have lost in sim too, trading the same way, for the same reasons, and have.

Who is manipulating the markets? Me, and you, and all the other traders who pile on at the same time, for the same reasons, and leave the market with no buyers left and so with only one way to go -- down. It's an everyday occurrence and is what separates traders into winners and losers. Naturally, we're sometimes one and sometimes the other. Some of us (and this has included me) find we're in the wrong group too often, and decide the world is against us. (I don't seem to end up in the right group as often, somehow. But I think it really has something to do with me, as a wild guess. )

I don't know if I have convinced you of anything, but I did want to tell you about my near-identical experiences I have had while in sim, where no one but me knew what my "trade" was, and it didn't make any difference. Now, if a person wanted to insist anyway that the sharks were out, they could easily say that the sharks were getting all the other small traders who were live and who were running along with me, and they didn't need my small contribution to know when it was time to attack.

But I will tell you that if you can look at the trades and see what you could have legitimately done differently, for example the way @josh was thinking, suddenly and amazingly the sharks will stop coming for you. There are no sharks.

(By the way, I see from your example that you were closed on a margin call, after a long, long losing period, so I infer you did not have a stop, or moved it, or otherwise were not willing to just take the loss when it was small and when your trade wasn't working out. I also see that your forced closeout was at a low, which you find as evidence that the market was being manipulated because "They" knew how much capital was in your account, and were gunning for you and you alone, and moved the market just to get your account, I suppose. No. You (and I) are just not all that important. And you should use a stop next time, too. You would still have most of the money you lost and could trade again.)

I know you said earlier that you had been doing well and then it changed, and you think that it's the sharks who are waiting for you. No one is successful all the time, so look for something that has changed in what you are doing. It's there somewhere. Believe me, every single trader in the world who has been at this very long has had this experience, and some have pulled out because they found whatever it was, or perhaps sometimes because they got lucky and things changed back to what they had or were doing before. But looking for the cause in someone who is getting information on you and trading against you is not going to help you.

Remember that they can get me while I'm on sim and there's nothing happening out there at all. That's because they aren't there, it's all me, all the time.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #24 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
(By the way, I see from your example that you were closed on a margin call

Good point. When you're margin called on a 14 handle ES loss, if means you're pretty well near the max allowable margin for your account; it's trading about 1 ES per $1000. Way too much leverage.

By the way @lamass, I'd like to share a post I made on this site 9 years ago, that shows how much I was frustrated by exactly the same thing as you were. I didn't know how to trade, but thought I did, I'm sure. I was pissed and blamed "them" too. It was on sim, but I assure you that I had exponentially more frustrating moments later, with real money, with much more loss of control, plenty of tears shed, and all the messy psychological stuff that comes with it. Note the passive-aggressive, self-pity, woe-is-me, boo hoo "not for me" attitude.


josh View Post
Totally lost my patience today with oil. I bought at 101.55 around 1:15PM today. I get stopped out by a few ticks as "they" run stops down to 101.35. Price then shoots up almost 300 ticks with no significant pullbacks, something easy to trail with a pretty tight stop. It completely ignores the 103.40 level on its way up, and upon retracing I try to buy at the pullback--but nope, not for me. Maybe the worst feeling I've had since I started trading. Oh yeah, I had a long on ES at the time on a pullback as well, you can guess how that turned out as the whole world freaks out that oil is rising. Oil is so frustrating for me because it does NOTHING for hours on end, fakes me out, stops me out, whipsaws everyone in its path--and then up $2.50 in 10 minutes, with a max pullback of 20 ticks. Arg...

Sigh. The only consolation is it's not real money, but I realize the longer I struggle in sim, the longer it will take to trade real money. Someone who has been through this, please give me some advice so I don't lose my sanity. Thanks.

I post this to demonstrate how we've all been there before. And I can assure you that I haven't had my last "sell the bottom" or "buy the top" ... it will happen again, and it won't be fun, but it's part of the game.

As a great trader said, "attitude is everything." If you read my post above, you can't imagine that a winning trader would ever talk that way. The attitude has to change first.

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  #25 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
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lightsun47 View Post
I ain't a vendor trying to sell anything. Whatever I use, at least won't go away like I said before.

If I happy, I am happy. I don't have to show you my personal statements or anything to prove anything.

P.S. Whatever you had said might be true, but not 100% always, because there will be ways to counter strike the 'bots' too.

There's always a way.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

If one was happy with their trading results then they would have no reservations with showing their results to others. In this case I'd be satisfied with just stats or an equity curve.

Technical edge is self destructing. The market discovers the inefficiency and arbitrages it away. So it's not uncommon for a retail trader to think they've discovered a technical edge only to see it destroyed later. The most common trick they'll play on you is taking on excessive risk. Risking a stop much farther than the target. This can show positive results over long periods of time, but in practice will eventually "blow up".

Which is why when I encounter such claims I'll always ask for results. The real trades either don't exist or don't show what the trader thinks they do.

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TWDsje View Post
If one was happy with their trading results then they would have no reservations with showing their results to others. In this case I'd be satisfied with just stats or an equity curve.

From his post you quoted (#20), it is clear that he won't be posting his results for your satisfaction.
The fact Big Mike thanked his post saying that he isn't selling anything and won't be posting his results shows that Mike and the moderator's are quite happy also.
I haven't seen any forum rule that requires members to post their trading results and prove themselves if or whenever anybody else demands they do so. Have you?

(I'm obviously not a moderator in any way shape or form, just bored of seeing people who even suggests they are making a profit being met with demands to prove it as if any value or interest in what they have said can only be judged as worthy or worthless against that yardstick. Moderators please delete this post if it breaks a forum rule)

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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  #27 (permalink)
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It's probably best to go back to the thread's topic anyway, which is not whether trading based on technical analysis works or not but whether one's feeling of being 'watched' by other market players can be considered reasonable or not.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Not much to add to "is the Market watching", other than after making a trade that becomes a loss if I study it later, Ill see where I faulted. I can't remember studying a loser trade and not seeing how it was me that was the one who made the mistake (based of of Price Action and a 21 EMA).

What I really wanted to say is this has been a very insightful post, love hearing how other traders are thinking.

Don't let Fear, Greed and Gambling overRule
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  #29 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
It's probably best to go back to the thread's topic anyway, which is not whether trading based on technical analysis works or not but whether one's feeling of being 'watched' by other market players can be considered reasonable or not.

Well I guess the point here is how would you know the difference? Market participants are constantly seeking inefficiencies in the market to arbitrage out of the market. How could you know if it's just a meta shift or if someone was specifically watching and trading against you? The end market behavior would be the same. What worked before would suddenly not work very well.

We only know that it's being caused by meta shifts because we know how the algorithms work, and we know that technical analysis is generally self defeating reducing the expectancy of edges over time as more participants discover them.

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  #30 (permalink)
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Yeah if you buy the exact top as shown in the chart you posted OP, then your loss is 100% your fault as you held the drawdown to the max. Nobody is looking for your 1 contract trade to snipe off. There are some sniper/sniffer algos that will target large amounts of liquidity once they become available and sitting on the limit order book. That type of algo only trades when visible liquidity is available.

If you have a losing streak, it means you're getting cold and need to be patient on your entries. A lot of other people have already said to simply wait for where you'd place your stop and then enter there. I will also add, trade small in the micros and trade at where your stop would have been, and be able to scale in a few more contracts, as that will create some "wiggle" room. It's really easy to say "let the market come to you" but try to practice it as much as possible.

We feel like someone is "watching" because we are out of sync with the market. Anytime I feel like this, I know to slow down or stop trading and look at my levels from another angle.

Don't trade Mini size on a small account, you'll shoot yourself in the foot doing that.

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  #31 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Are you trading real futures or CFD?


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Did lamass ever answer this question? if these're bucketshop CFDs, then we all know why he got picked off...

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TWDsje View Post
Well I guess the point here is how would you know the difference? Market participants are constantly seeking inefficiencies in the market to arbitrage out of the market. How could you know if it's just a meta shift or if someone was specifically watching and trading against you? The end market behavior would be the same. What worked before would suddenly not work very well.

We only know that it's being caused by meta shifts because we know how the algorithms work, and we know that technical analysis is generally self defeating reducing the expectancy of edges over time as more participants discover them.

I agree with you. Happy that this is discussed also, as long as the topic does not creep towards proving how good one's edge is.

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Blash View Post
Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.

You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.

You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.

You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.

You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.

Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.

I completely agree. Most traders overestimate their skill.

Easy example to understand that most people can relate to is playing competitive computer games. However good or knowledgeable you are about the game, play one game against a professional player and he will completely dominate the game. Their understating of the meta game completely differs. Professionals pay attention on things you might not even consider.

Every day we trading against people who understand risk better, implement better models, have deeper pockets, better infrastructure, better access to quality data.

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  #34 (permalink)
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133usd View Post
Yeah if you buy the exact top as shown in the chart you posted OP, then your loss is 100% your fault as you held the drawdown to the max. Nobody is looking for your 1 contract trade to snipe off. There are some sniper/sniffer algos that will target large amounts of liquidity once they become available and sitting on the limit order book. That type of algo only trades when visible liquidity is available.

If you have a losing streak, it means you're getting cold and need to be patient on your entries. A lot of other people have already said to simply wait for where you'd place your stop and then enter there. I will also add, trade small in the micros and trade at where your stop would have been, and be able to scale in a few more contracts, as that will create some "wiggle" room. It's really easy to say "let the market come to you" but try to practice it as much as possible.

We feel like someone is "watching" because we are out of sync with the market. Anytime I feel like this, I know to slow down or stop trading and look at my levels from another angle.

Don't trade Mini size on a small account, you'll shoot yourself in the foot doing that.

Thanks fort the reasonable advise! In retrospect, I see where i was irrational. Yet, remains that all trades and positions are watched by big houses. If i can see depth of Level I & II, they can see probably even how much $$ I have, how strong am I to sustain a move against me, or a number of traders. And certainly, wild M, as we had seen lately, has no issue by swinging 10-15-20 pts (ES) to run and destroy those accounts. Also, it remains, that if one is very very Correct- then the M will reward him. I say, very, very because 1 in that case (with small account) needs to be right 2 or 3 layers. The algos, in such wild M conditions, would need to already clean up and destroy quite a bit accounts, satisfy their "appetite" (make gains), and already do that probably 2-3 times- then: 1 can get on with the Correct Flow. My limitations lately, has been that I started to watch the M from a position of 'regaining back my loss'- so I lost the Flow, Unburdened Intuition and Patience. Plus, I violated some of my own rules: and that deserves Punishment!
As I sober out, I still think we are watched and manipulated, that there are hooks, flushes, clean ups, shakes, stop-runs, etc... but 1 can still trade well and cautiously in those conditions. Even profitably. Its a State Of Mind that i slipped from recently. But the conversations had been critically sobering to me as to what is and should be my Job on the M. Thanks to all!

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  #35 (permalink)
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lamass View Post
Yet, remains that all trades and positions are watched by big houses. If i can see depth of Level I & II, they can see probably even how much $$ I have, how strong am I to sustain a move against me, or a number of traders.

This is just not true, and I'm stating this to prevent the spread of more misinformation. No one can see your account size, and they have no idea where your stop is (you, individually). I can guess logically where stops are, because I understand the psychology of the collective. And more sophisticated algos certainly can make very very good guesses. But I have ZERO way to know where your stop is, that you have one, what your position is, or that you even exist.


lamass View Post
As I sober out, I still think we are watched and manipulated, that there are hooks, flushes, clean ups, shakes, stop-runs, etc... but 1 can still trade well and cautiously in those conditions. Even profitably.

This is a positive attitude to have. When you begin to shift the mindset from "they are out to get me" to "they are out to get some people--now how can I get a piece of the action," then you are releasing the ego. This is a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" mentality, and it's necessary for survival. There is no reward, or morality, in siding with the weak who will lose money, because you will have the same fate. In a battle for survival, do you side with the weak who are about to get slaughtered for some self-righteous feeling of virtue, or will you side with the winners, and live to fight another day? In real life we would stand up to forces larger than us if family, spirituality, or some other higher purpose were at stake. This is not the case here. It's trading. It's money. Take the money from the weak, or be one of the weak, it's our choice. (It sounds so seriously savage and I don't mean it to, but it's really just reality)

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  #36 (permalink)
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tr8er View Post
big banks, institutions and hedgefunds are all watching your ultra, micro, baby account and trade against you

Finally a reasonable person here- although he thinks he is facetious. Yes, I was feeling they were after my $600. And after many thousands of $600-ts accounts. And they do it just as an aperitif. Because they can. If I had millions and B$s, I would do the same. Clean up the Plankton- then head for the real meal.

Of course, fractally speaking, so many TimeFrame participators makes the game confusing even more. One can make Money countertrend and loose while "being Right" if the account size get critical or terminate by fear. This is a vast ocean filled with wild Beasts. Derby Demolition. Eat or get itten. I also want to take your money- is the name of the game. So I understand that there is no sympathy here.
I was so stupidly naive at a point that i could not get it, why did the M needs to go 10 pnts down, to just head another 50 up. Or the opposite. But, Now I Know: they are after my little $. There is no little or big $. Lots of retail little $ is a lot of $- daily. That's why it has to be like that. Ridden with traps and dangers.
I'll just need to reevaluate my way of involvement and thinking here. I had many times good profitable runs- then they stop working. And i haven't learned well how to take and deal with losses- in a constructive sustaining manner. Adapting to different conditions is the hardest for me. Probably for most. Peace!

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  #37 (permalink)
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josh View Post
This is just not true, and I'm stating this to prevent the spread of more misinformation. No one can see your account size, and they have no idea where your stop is (you, individually). I can guess logically where stops are, because I understand the psychology of the collective. And more sophisticated algos certainly can make very very good guesses. But I have ZERO way to know where your stop is, that you have one, what your position is, or that you even exist.



This is a positive attitude to have. When you begin to shift the mindset from "they are out to get me" to "they are out to get some people--now how can I get a piece of the action," then you are releasing the ego. This is a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" mentality, and it's necessary for survival. There is no reward, or morality, in siding with the weak who will lose money, because you will have the same fate. In a battle for survival, do you side with the weak who are about to get slaughtered for some self-righteous feeling of virtue, or will you side with the winners, and live to fight another day? In real life we would stand up to forces larger than us if family, spirituality, or some other higher purpose were at stake. This is not the case here. It's trading. It's money. Take the money from the weak, or be one of the weak, it's our choice. (It sounds so seriously savage and I don't mean it to, but it's really just reality)

UR Absolutely Correct!
Thanks!
Peace!

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  #38 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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bob666s View Post
Did lamass ever answer this question? if these're bucketshop CFDs, then we all know why he got picked off...

I trade RTY and ES mini and micro contracts on CME.
Could you please explain how CFDís are related to those futures to even ask that?

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  #39 (permalink)
shanghai
 
 
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lamass View Post
I trade RTY and ES mini and micro contracts on CME.
Could you please explain how CFDís are related to those futures to even ask that?

Like futures, CFDs are derivatives of the underlying products, including indices, the only difference being that CFDs are offered by OTC market makers, i.e. bucket shops who take the other side of your trade mostly betting on their "clients" being losers in the long run.

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  #40 (permalink)
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Blash View Post
Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.

You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.

You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.

You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.

You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.

Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.

You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money.

Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now.

Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade.

Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat.

I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said.

This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself.

Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining.

Ron

Excellent reply that summarizes Trade understanding. Thanks for it.

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  #41 (permalink)
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If lightning strikes on the ground at location "X" but you thought it should strike at location "Z" who is wrong? You.

The markets are like the bolt of lightning striking the ground. It is nor right nor wrong. It just is.

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  #42 (permalink)
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  #43 (permalink)
Uxbridge UK
 
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I have very often had that very feeling, there's a gremlin in there and its only job is to ensure that I make continual losses. Its ridiculous of course, but that feeling persists. I have tried many methods and systems, some my own and some proprietary. I have usually forced myself to adhere to their rules, but it does not help. Its a strange and uncanny feeling you get when 5 or 6 trades in a row turn against you after one tick or two.
I have recently stopped discresionary trading altogether and am spending my time trying to write a profitable automated system.

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  #44 (permalink)
Tampa FL
 
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lamass View Post
Finally a reasonable person here- although he thinks he is facetious. Yes, I was feeling they were after my $600. And after many thousands of $600-ts accounts. And they do it just as an aperitif. Because they can. If I had millions and B$s, I would do the same. Clean up the Plankton- then head for the real meal.

And while you were wasting time doing that, another one of these supposed "sharks" - one who was watching your account, which is possible in your imaginary world - would clean you out. Do you understand that?

I get that paranoid mindset - I've experienced it myself - but its glaring flaw is that the situation you're imagining consists of only two players: you and a "shark" who is out to get you. And that "shark" spend millions of dollars moving the market - because that is what it would take - to get your $600.

So let's pretend for a moment that your scenario was true - but add in more players. Let's start with just one for now: another "shark" (lets call him "Shark B" to contrast him from your "Shark A".) Shark B also knows all about you - and in addition, knows that Shark A has the habit of injecting millions of dollars into the market chasing after your stops.

You DO understand that Shark B would simply RAPE Shark A, right? And that Shark A would be out of business after doing that, right?

The point is that this kind of imaginary stop-chasing cannot exist - because it would be absolutely stupid, completely predictable, and (in very short order) self-destructive behavior for anyone who tried it.

Understand this key point: YES, people in the market are out to get your money. Hell, I'll take it if I see you being dumb enough to give it away; anybody would. But the way you're imagining it would destroy the "taker" in very short order - which is why no one is ever going to do it that way. It's a fairy-tale monster under the bed; one that can't exist in real life for even a moment.

Shortcut: LISTEN to @josh, and other people who are saying the same things that he is. Seriously. Try to understand what he's saying. THAT - the actual psychology of the buyers and the sellers - is what moves the market. Anyone with a simplistic, naive, fairy-tale view of how the markets work... those are the folks who provide liquidity (and spend their time complaining about "sharks".) Think about which one you want to be.

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  #45 (permalink)
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lamass --- What I would suggest, if I may, is that for the moment, you turn your attention away from trading the market and onto what is known as "locus of control," and see if you can learn anything from it and how that might apply to your current experience.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locus_of_control

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/moments-matter/201708/locus-control

https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-locus-of-control-2795434

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  #46 (permalink)
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Piling on my boy @lamass like:


https://youtu.be/FNkpIDBtC2c?t=15

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  #47 (permalink)
Miami Fl / USA
 
 
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Yeah. I have the same impression. Stops get taken out just to the point where I've placed stops, even if they are located outside when my stops are placed in unusual places.
It seems as if someone sees my stops then deliberately takes them out before continuing in the direction I expected the price to go. The boogie man seems to be watching in the gloom.
lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]


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  #48 (permalink)
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA
 
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Blash View Post
This business is about being in control of your person.
Ron

..nuff said.

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  #49 (permalink)
San Francisco, California, USA
 
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I am going to take a wild guess that you, and your small account, are safe. What you are seeing is volatility, and as an options trader, that is one of the two best friends I have, the other being liquidity. This is why I stopped setting stop-loss orders. The trade would go against me and I'd be stopped out, but then it would invariably come back. We make money from that volatility. I have made an awful lot more money since I stopped setting stop-loss orders. Yes, the volatility in this market is going to take you for a ride but you have to give "good" trades time to marinade and come to their senses. You have to give it time to work. While you may or may not be right about the big boys having a window into your account, I would ask you why they would care about what you, or I, do? Whether I buy 5 ZC, 10 NG, or whatever it is, trust me, I am part of the rounding error in the scheme of things.

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  #50 (permalink)
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Haven't had time to read all the replies, so apologies if this has been said, but it also strikes me that this is also a natural outcome of trading.... do it long enough and you'll have periods where it seems every trade goes against you. Just like you have times when every trade goes your way.

I recommend reading Taleb's books on this, so you can both see these periods for what they are (randomness), and manage them too!

Remember, there are only four outcomes to a trade; big profit, small profit, small loss, big loss. You only have to avoid big losses to stay ahead!

J

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  #51 (permalink)
San anselmo ca
 
 
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Your right that algo props search for whatever the latest idea is or is selling and front run it scalp. This is wildly worse with computers today. That is why I think you need your own ideas and plan. They always sweep the book of people before the move, that is a signal itself. Set target an get out no matter what. The chart you sent says to me you were way late on that purchase, from an Elliot wave view it was a fifth wave topping setup. Also keep in mind it will often let you out with small lose, as it did on the chart with pullback that failed. You are correct that "they know when small traders are going to tap out" You are trading against Watson the IBM monster. Look to not play the game but grab a small piece. You cannot win agianst the the fed printers or algos. Try and see and feel the game. You are playing the hardest game you will ever play, take it from someone who knows and has lost hundreds of thousands. It was better when you phoned in orders.

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  #52 (permalink)
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josh View Post


Lam(b)assting him, you might say. But yo, if we're represented by the guy doing the open-handed smack, then the market is the one with the gun... and it's not too far behind us.

The smartest people learn from other people's mistakes; the dumbest ones get killed by things they've been told to avoid over and over again. The trick is to figure out where you are along that spectrum and (hopefully) improve your position. A bunch of smart and experienced folks like yourself have been doing everything from providing gentle hints to applying a clue-by-four, and the guy still keeps going back to his "they're after me" story. I've given it what I think of as a good shot, but... past a certain point, there's no reason to try anymore.

(A friend who had spent a number of years living at an ashram related that they had a very strong injunction against helping others advance - because that implied that they were helpless. All of their energy was aimed at assisting - as long as someone put in the effort to do it on their own, no matter how feeble, they'd be right there with whatever was needed and asked for. I see that distinction as important.)

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  #53 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
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If you have a Netflix subscription, there's a great series called "Chef's Table".

What's great about it from a trader's perspective is to hear the stories of how these people struggled for years, with all kinds of unbelievable bad luck and adversity, some hitting rock-bottom, most failing over and over and over. They persevered to become great at their craft, many of them among the best in the world, and it took years of never giving up, adaptation and re-inventing themselves. I believe the stories are very inspirational to me as a trader (as well as I'm a foodie/wine guy). Maybe they'll be inspiring to others as well.


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  #54 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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bdlibra View Post
Yeah. I have the same impression. Stops get taken out just to the point where I've placed stops, even if they are located outside when my stops are placed in unusual places.
It seems as if someone sees my stops then deliberately takes them out before continuing in the direction I expected the price to go. The boogie man seems to be watching in the gloom.

Indeed! Better we Believe the Boogie-bot is Watching - and stay Safe then be Free-of-Worry and loose. Some traders reassured: the Market is not interested in your little account. But drop by drop- lake. I Know and Trust they are interested in my small account!
So many times I get cleaned and the M continues my way. Donít trust people who tell you your little orders are not being watched. Itís all about optimization: the Bots know how to measure risk within certain boundaries and theyíll move the M even 10 pts to swipe you. Meanwhile, the game will continue not just with your little and my little account - but dozens and hundreds of little ones. And of course, when they swipe you up , thatís where they put their Order now- in a very nice position. The only Success for small Traders is to know where are those Places where people get cleaned and join the bigger Wave. We really must be Damn Right Convinced of the General Direction, and be able to Sustain the onslaught of Attacks. No mercy! This is not an investment: itís a demolition derby! Cheers!

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  #55 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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oceansailor View Post
Lam(b)assting him, you might say. But yo, if we're represented by the guy doing the open-handed smack, then the market is the one with the gun... and it's not too far behind us.

The smartest people learn from other people's mistakes; the dumbest ones get killed by things they've been told to avoid over and over again. The trick is to figure out where you are along that spectrum and (hopefully) improve your position. A bunch of smart and experienced folks like yourself have been doing everything from providing gentle hints to applying a clue-by-four, and the guy still keeps going back to his "they're after me" story. I've given it what I think of as a good shot, but... past a certain point, there's no reason to try anymore.

(A friend who had spent a number of years living at an ashram related that they had a very strong injunction against helping others advance - because that implied that they were helpless. All of their energy was aimed at assisting - as long as someone put in the effort to do it on their own, no matter how feeble, they'd be right there with whatever was needed and asked for. I see that distinction as important.)


You think what you want- Iíll think they are after me. I enjoy being paranoid. I enjoy knowing that you are after my money- that way letís see if you can take it. FI, These days Iím taking ďyoursĒ. You are after my money!!! Cheers!

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  #56 (permalink)
New York City + NY/United States
 
 
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Are you placing your stops at very obvious prices? Idk about all markets, but I know ES has a habit of stopping out all the obvious stops 1 or 2 times, before rocketing into original direction you were hoping for.

Might be better to wait for the traps to play out before entering, but sometimes there are no traps and you miss the move completely. In this case you could also put out "feelers", quickly closing out if the market doesn't immediately move in your direction.

For example, today's ES open at 9:30am est is a good example of stops being hit by a tick two times in row, before the market rockets back into the direction. Take a look at this screenshot from my trading today for how I dealt with it. I'm also playing with the idea of using this to "scale in" into the position, instead of all-in, and scale out.






bdlibra View Post
Yeah. I have the same impression. Stops get taken out just to the point where I've placed stops, even if they are located outside when my stops are placed in unusual places.
It seems as if someone sees my stops then deliberately takes them out before continuing in the direction I expected the price to go. The boogie man seems to be watching in the gloom.


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  #57 (permalink)
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Here's another example from yesterday of annoying stop traps before moving back into the right direction. Unlike today, I didn't close out immediately after the breakout failed, and instead held my stop, prayed, and as we all know once you start praying, your stop will be hit!


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  #58 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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fivewhy View Post
..nuff said.

Thatís for Sure!

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  #59 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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planetkill View Post
Here's another example from yesterday of annoying stop traps before moving back into the right direction. Unlike today, I didn't close out immediately after the breakout failed, and instead held my stop, prayed, and as we all know once you start praying, your stop will be hit!


I also believe I the Divine ... and had prayed... sometimes even was ďheardĒ and ďhelpedĒ. Of course, somebody said: ďGod will work with you - but not for you!Ē So we need to TAKE RESPONSIBILITY AND MATURE AND TRADE COMPETENTLY. Thatís the Will of the Divine. And, Evolution as the Direction of the Creative Game, assumes us to be Progressing, becoming more alert, smarter, subtler, nimbler, freer, stronger...

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  #60 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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josh View Post

Hi


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  #61 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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jakobe View Post
If lightning strikes on the ground at location "X" but you thought it should strike at location "Z" who is wrong? You.

The markets are like the bolt of lightning striking the ground. It is nor right nor wrong. It just is.

But... there is way more to it, then wild chaotic untamed invincible Power... THIS THUNDER, strikes after you, because you are toll and stick out; this Thunder strikes after you when it sees that few like you have hidden under the roof or in the basement - and will go after that roof not in a Straight line, but along the Way will Clear few dozens/hundreds other Ďvictimsí - on purpose; and this Thunder is not a thunder, but a modern Gladiatorís Arena where the stronger, wittier, fastest, mightiest and sometime luckiest will Survive. Not a good metaphor.
Also, the definition: M is an Auction where Sellers and Buyers meet to discover price and execute trades. So benign.
The Truth is: itís a Slaughter House with Attractive Flickery Fake Advertising and Hooks and Giveaways... to instantly turn and show their (Demonic) real Face. Itís not a Thunder- itís a Tinder, for rekindling desire and hope in gullible people and take their money. Thatís Day Trading.
Investment is another Game.
But of course, nobody forces one to visit this Slaughter House.

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  #62 (permalink)
San Francisco,CA
 
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josh View Post
Open two accounts. Take offsetting positions in each of them. Observe that one will be in profit, one will be in loss. Hopefully this cures you from the paranoia that "they" care about you. Yes, liquidity runs are made, and yes, it's to trap traders and find liquidity. But it's not for you -- just for you and others who thought like you did at the time.

But let's back up. The market's job is to facilitate trade. Orders to sell and buy are placed. This moves the market. Algos, who are the dominant force in the market now, do make 'predatory' moves in order to seek liquidity and profit; but, largely, they are merely there to fill orders in response to market conditions. For example, a large fund has an automated system that will sell a holding if the stock drops below its 200D MA. The algo may be a simple VWAP algo ... it may be something like "sell to fill above VWAP; if the market gets below the VWAP by X%, sell at the market (to fill the order even at unfavorable prices)" ... it has a job to do and will do whatever it's programmed to do, to fill the order. That's it. This particular algo is not out to get you.

As a practical rule of thumb (1) place your order to buy or sell, and (2) note where your stop would be. Now (3) cancel your order, and (4) place your order where your stop was going to be as observed in #2.

Thanks Josh! Indeed I had been (sometimes) doing that- but always one needs to adjust and adopt in this game. And few of those days surprised me Big Time, since I got relaxed and got too comfortable into the game of ďmilkingĒ the M everyday- same way. So I relaxed into the same groove. And Bam! Well ... ĎNot so Easyí. I even have a pretty good setup called that way. You know something will ďsurelyĒ Happen ... but - ĎNot So Easy!í It Will first milk you out and tire you and catch many little losses and then- do exactly what one expected- but then with the little Account - one is out - you canít participate. And thatís maddening. Of course, Acceptance of the Given parameters is Paramount for Mature actions. And I took it personally- which has self-fulfilling prophetic effect. 102 psychology.
Your Advise is Solid and most sincerely Appreciated!
Thank you!
God Bless!

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  #63 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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lamass View Post
But... there is way more to it, then wild chaotic untamed invincible Power... THIS THUNDER, strikes after you, because you are toll and stick out; this Thunder strikes after you when it sees that few like you have hidden under the roof or in the basement - and will go after that roof not in a Straight line, but along the Way will Clear few dozens/hundreds other Ďvictimsí - on purpose; and this Thunder is not a thunder, but a modern Gladiatorís Arena where the stronger, wittier, fastest, mightiest and sometime luckiest will Survive. Not a good metaphor.
Also, the definition: M is an Auction where Sellers and Buyers meet to discover price and execute trades. So benign.
The Truth is: itís a Slaughter House with Attractive Flickery Fake Advertising and Hooks and Giveaways... to instantly turn and show their (Demonic) real Face. Itís not a Thunder- itís a Tinder, for rekindling desire and hope in gullible people and take their money. Thatís Day Trading.
Investment is another Game.
But of course, nobody forces one to visit this Slaughter House.

I'll have some of whatever you're on!

We see the world, not as it is, but as we are. If I believe the world to be full of racists, I'll see them everywhere. If I think the world is a hard place to make a living, I'll have that experience. If I see life as a constant wonderful opportunity to grow, I'll frame obstacles as learning experiences.

So, how do you view the markets? If you view it as a slaughterhouse, fake, hooks, demonic, etc.. then you'll have that experience, every time you trade -- sounds kind of icky, and not a fun way to do business or spend your time. As someone said: "we all get what we want from the market." For many people, that's confirmation of their opinion that it's an awful, corrupt place. For others, it's confirmation of their opinion that it's too hard to make money in the market.

You can feel how you want and believe what you want, but the inescapable truth that you will always come back to, even if you don't realize it's happening, is that in trading, and in life for the most part, you create your own experience. This is my last post on this thread, as I've dealt more than my fair share of blows to the proverbial dead horse! I'll leave you with this thought from the great PTJ:

"Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?"

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  #64 (permalink)
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josh View Post
I'll have some of whatever you're on!

We see the world, not as it is, but as we are. If I believe the world to be full of racists, I'll see them everywhere. If I think the world is a hard place to make a living, I'll have that experience. If I see life as a constant wonderful opportunity to grow, I'll frame obstacles as learning experiences.

So, how do you view the markets? If you view it as a slaughterhouse, fake, hooks, demonic, etc.. then you'll have that experience, every time you trade -- sounds kind of icky, and not a fun way to do business or spend your time. As someone said: "we all get what we want from the market." For many people, that's confirmation of their opinion that it's an awful, corrupt place. For others, it's confirmation of their opinion that it's too hard to make money in the market.

You can feel how you want and believe what you want, but the inescapable truth that you will always come back to, even if you don't realize it's happening, is that in trading, and in life for the most part, you create your own experience. This is my last post on this thread, as I've dealt more than my fair share of blows to the proverbial dead horse! I'll leave you with this thought from the great PTJ:

"Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?"

Dear Josh,

You are a good man! And totally right about all you said. I am growing personally with my ability to make money on the M.
The issue has been: I relax- I loose. If I focus, restrain myself, postpone action, wait, watch, feel: I make money. We trade tiny accounts. Today i started $180 finished $530. 2 hrs trading. I had been making in a day an account from $150 into $1300. From $300 into $2200- my Biggest Success. In a day! [Obstacle has been to go over $3000.] I start with Micro finish on 1 or 2 contracts: ES and RTY. And the next day I loose it all on NQ- in a 3 to 15 transactions. So I learned to not touch NQ. Once i start with 2-3 contracts I loose my cool. But we are talking very small margin of error here. I have no luxury to not be right immediately or to leave it overnight. Because of that, I also have issue to after painstakingly earning those $$- to part with it- I would rather part with all of it- and say: "Fu.. it! I really wasnt right- and i was so sure i was- i hypnotized myself! I deserve it, because of my inflexibility..." . I know, that its an Issue- I must learn to Loose like a Gentleman. No more then 3 loosing trades in a raw- as you say. Perhaps, I do not want to admit my aggressive side- since I'm a nice guy. But i know: if I relax a bit- I Loose! I really can see the splash of Eternal Truth in what you are saying. We construct our lives and the world reflects us- gives us back what we Project. I need however to construct and earn it. And I feel I am very close.

I will Mind Your's and Buddha's Words more often.

'What we think- we become!
What we feel- we attract!
What we imagine- we create!'
Buddha

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  #65 (permalink)
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Mind sharing a chart so we get a better idea of the setups?

danh18 View Post
Hi, I may be a little late to the conversation but I just came across it. I'm sorry to have to tell you, but you just don't have a strategy that is reliable enough to withstand the ever changing markets. And I'm not trying to put you down, or be meen. I say this because I lived it myself. Everytime I thought I had a method that would work and I would have a little success with it, it would stop working and kill me. I also thought "they" must be looking at little ol' me and are out to get every last penny of my money, so I understand you completely. But I reiterate, this is the result of not having a strategy that has been tested and proven to withstand the market changes. I have been looking at markets for over 12 years, and never made any progress, until recently. The difference is I came across someone with a tried and tested strategy, proven over time, 25 years of time actually. I'm not selling anything, and I don't make any money from this, I'm just a satisfied customer- happy I finally found something that's real and actually works. John, the developer of nexgent3 dot com, runs a live training room every morning, he's big on training! He does not function as a trade calling service, but he does show his charts and show you how to apply his technique to live markets, everyday. There's a great community of veteran experienced traders, as well as newbies anxious to learn. You should check them out. If you want any more info, feel free to DM me and we can chat further.

P.S. Your comment that you were convinced the best way to succeed was to withdraw money everytime you got to 1000-2000 in your account- that's another sign you don't have the right strategy. At nexgen there are plenty of traders (and I know them personally) that have large accounts- tens of thousands in them- and they are VERY VERY successful consistently! I'm telling you- the right strategy is EVERYTHING

Best of luck,
Dan


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planetkill View Post
Mind sharing a chart so we get a better idea of the setups?

I wouldn't hold my breath. The post sounded like baiting with a website included.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #67 (permalink)
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No doubt. But after you're done for today, do you mind sharing a screenshot of your chart so we can have a better idea of the setups?

I share my personal charts everyday.

danh18 View Post
Like I said, I have nothing to gain from this. He has a free evaluation period- no credit card no commitment required- go see for yourself... don't take my word for it. I know there's a lot of skepticism out there, I was one of them!

Later, busy trading now, and making money! $$


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  #68 (permalink)
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This is a competition game so youíre always the prey of somebody, and your flow being analysed, especially if noticeable. But itís not a reason enough to become paranoid that the market plays against you. There are treatments to apply if this becomes a concern. It could be transitionning to more stealth orders, hiding your game until the ladt minute, like If-Touched orders instead of limits, or platform side instead or server side ...or split your activity to parallel pools which could centrally-cleared CFD exchanges (Lmax?) or dark pools or over mini/micro sizes. Just ideas...

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Thank you for following up! I think I see what's going on.

How long have you been running this strat? How are your stats?

I ask because a year ago I thought I had the holy grail strat figured out. But then the next month it stopped working so my 1st month performance was insanely strong, but the quarterly performance ended being very poor, and I've since then needed to move on to a different strat.
danh18 View Post
ok here goes, I've never done this before so I hope I get it right...

there is A LOT going on in these charts, so I hope you don't expect to understand the whole strategy just by looking at a couple of charts. For a better explenation, he has some intro videos on his website (nexgent3 dot com) that are accessible by all. And of course, the best thing to do is sign up for the free demo and actually get the software on your computer, watch all the training videos, and come to the live classes to see for yourself.

Hope this helps...


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  #70 (permalink)
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T3 has been a scam strategy with a heavy marketing team since years, sold at a gold price. Are you here to push sales ? Iíve been around long enough to not buy fairytales. Thereís no single strategy which lasts under changing market conditions. HF combine many and change them every couple months.

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  #71 (permalink)
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No need. I got a friend whoís a programmer for these commercial companies and I know the behind the scenes.

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I did a bit of backtesting for T3 strategies, and I was not impressed. I programmed two of their setups before moving on to other things. I found some evidence to support some of their ideas, but overall the signals they gave were not profitable. I actually found a good setup by waiting a good 20-40 minutes after their short signal and then entering long when their trade failed. However, I think this is only working because of the whole BTFD tendency markets have had these last few years.

If they're making money it's probably more from their stock selection than it is their signal setups. But hey at least they have specific setups that I could sit down and program. Most educators seem to intentionally avoid telling you anything that you could backtest like that.

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Thank you for posting your experience with them. I went to the website for fun, and everything about it read scam to me.

Of course we don't have the time or energy to test all these vendors, so trusting intuition is the only way to go, since none of these vendors ever prove current trading success with their methods. The best they can do is provide random screenshots from days where the setups worked, but at best their strategies are breakeven, but more than likely lose money over the long term.
TWDsje View Post
I did a bit of backtesting for T3 strategies, and I was not impressed. I programmed two of their setups before moving on to other things. I found some evidence to support some of their ideas, but overall the signals they gave were not profitable. I actually found a good setup by waiting a good 20-40 minutes after their short signal and then entering long when their trade failed. However, I think this is only working because of the whole BTFD tendency markets have had these last few years.

If they're making money it's probably more from their stock selection than it is their signal setups. But hey at least they have specific setups that I could sit down and program. Most educators seem to intentionally avoid telling you anything that you could backtest like that.


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planetkill View Post
Thank you for posting your experience with them. I went to the website for fun, and everything about it read scam to me.

Of course we don't have the time or energy to test all these vendors, so trusting intuition is the only way to go, since none of these vendors ever prove current trading success with their methods. The best they can do is provide random screenshots from days where the setups worked, but at best their strategies are breakeven, but more than likely lose money over the long term.

I'll gladly backtest any strategy people send over. It is not a ton of time for me if the entry and exit criteria are already well defined.

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I thought he would start messaging me, but I'll just do it for them. You should delete all the unrelated posts.

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  #76 (permalink)
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No worries, I figured it out! Thanks anyways and I'll delete the posts as recommended.

Edit: It won't let me delete #75 (https://futures.io/emini-emicro-index/55318-sharks-watching-other-side-8.html#post815151) No edit option. Maybe it's too old? Idk the forum settings on this


TWDsje View Post
I thought he would start messaging me, but I'll just do it for them. You should delete all the unrelated posts.


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  #77 (permalink)
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planetkill View Post
No worries, I figured it out! Thanks anyways and I'll delete the posts as recommended.

Edit: It won't let me delete #75 (https://futures.io/emini-emicro-index/55318-sharks-watching-other-side-8.html#post815151) No edit option. Maybe it's too old? Idk the forum settings on this

You only have 24 hours to delete a post, after which it is set in stone.

I'll delete for you.

Bob.

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lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

I understand your frustration. As others have mentioned many of us have been there.

If I can provide some actionable pieces of advice then I'll certainly try! Apologies if I sound cold or short, it's just an attempt to put terms and theories into recognisable language which can lead to a less conversational tone.

The first thing that I can glean from what you say is that you are once like I was. You see the market, you see the prices amd you see the price levels on the chart without understanding the buying and selling process behind them. Why people are buying and selling where they are buying and selling.

The market is essentially driven by large players who buy and sell mind boggling amounts of whatever market they're in. If it's ES futures as an example, if you go down to a short term chart (1min or a 2000 vol chart in US market hours) you will see what looks like strange choppy price action a lot of the time. If this is occurring near major swing highs or lows then there is a very good chance that these players are accumulating their long or short positions. They are buying in such large amounts that if they are going long, every time price drops they will buy more and more using limit orders to buy at slightly lower (and therefore slightly better) prices. This can go on for ages until they have bought everything, exhausted sellers and then price moves higher.

But here's the thing. They are LOADED with buy positions/contracts. Thousands of them. Literally thousands. If they wanted to sell them all in one go, or even gradually, then these sell orders would most likely swamp the market as the selling would far out weigh anything on the buy side. Which means worse prices for them (and more risk of losing money).

So what can they do? How can they get rid of these thousands of long (buy side) contracts without causing lower prices and a potential reversal?
Well it's quite logical. They need to find an area where they think thousands of sell orders are resting. They can use these thousands of sell orders to liquidate their longs at a great price without depressing the matket prices too much. And if there are enough sell orders residing there, or if the large players intend to use the massive amount of passive sell orders to not only make a great profit but to also open large short positions as well (at a great price) then hey we have a reversal on our hands.

That's the game. Day in day out. Sometimes prices reverse at these levels
Sometimes they go right through them and then react at other areas where this 'liquidity ' (large amounts of passive limit orders) are residing.

So the question is, where do you think these large amounts of passive orders will be residing?

If you already know this, or someone has explained it to you then great stuff

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  #79 (permalink)
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^ Are you indirectly saying these are all iceberg orders?

Speaking of which, is there any practical usefulness if I use iceberg order detection for trading from your point of view? E.g. BookMap?

Thanks.

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Keab View Post
The market is essentially driven by large players who buy and sell mind boggling amounts of whatever market they're in. If it's ES futures as an example, if you go down to a short term chart (1min or a 2000 vol chart in US market hours) you will see what looks like strange choppy price action a lot of the time. If this is occurring near major swing highs or lows then there is a very good chance that these players are accumulating their long or short positions. They are buying in such large amounts that if they are going long, every time price drops they will buy more and more using limit orders to buy at slightly lower (and therefore slightly better) prices. This can go on for ages until they have bought everything, exhausted sellers and then price moves higher.

But here's the thing. They are LOADED with buy positions/contracts. Thousands of them. Literally thousands. If they wanted to sell them all in one go, or even gradually, then these sell orders would most likely swamp the market as the selling would far out weigh anything on the buy side. Which means worse prices for them (and more risk of losing money).

I've heard this theory again and again, and the one thing that always rings false to me - the thing that makes it impossible - is the situation in the last paragraph. If these large players know that they are going to end up in this situation by accumulating these huge positions, then why in the world would they accumulate these positions? If they are willing to buy at X and sell at Y, why would they not buy at every X and sell at every Y instead of endlessly accumulating and then having to deal with getting out of a huge position, or taking a chance at getting trapped in that huge position?

There are indeed forces that move the market - but I don't think they're as simplistic as this "large players" theory makes it out to be. If that was the case, then other large players who saw this kind of accumulation would simply take advantage of the inherent arbitrage opportunity. In fact, I believe that anything that simple - anything that can be reduced to a simple logical problem (and thus to a program) - already has been, and thus no longer exists as an opportunity.

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  #81 (permalink)
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lightsun47 View Post
^ Are you indirectly saying these are all iceberg orders?

Speaking of which, is there any practical usefulness if I use iceberg order detection for trading from your point of view? E.g. BookMap?

Thanks.

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No they're not all iceberg orders. If you do a search it is explained somewhere why an iceberg order indicator isn't much help. Might have been from the guy who runs jigsaw trading?

EDIT I mean do a search in these forums for jigsawtrading's comments (I think it was him) on iceberg orders. Something to do with how orders are sent through and how they're read by software, I forget the details. I think TT ,( a front end trade system) used by big traders effectively hides an iceberg in the order books or something like that so you'll never get the full picture. Can't find the link-sorry.


If you understand where liquidity lies, why it's there, and how it can be used (sometimes) then it will greatly help how you view the market. At major highs and lows many traders will wait for a candle close above/below the level to confirm price has broken through properly.

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Keab View Post
Opinions are like arseholes eh. Everybody's got one.

Go look at a 4hr and 1hr chart on the ES. Tell me if you see price constantly reversing at highs and lows in the absence of fundamental market moving data. Tell me your reasoning behind it. Just a coincidence and that sh*t happens? I'm really curious to know, is it a zen sort of thing these reversals? What's actually happening in terms of who is buying and selling?

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oceansailor View Post
Really? Wow. I've never seen such a profound statement.
...
Now, you have a choice. You can stalk off in a snit or continue to be a snot - either of which will further confirm the irrationality you started with - or you can start acting reasonable and explain the gaping hole in your theory (or admit that you can't, and that you were wrong.) Up to you.

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bobwest View Post
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Great example in Eurgbp happening right now.
Chart 1-daily chart
You can see such strange liquidity sweeps occurring a few days in a row

Chart 2
4 hour chart of same period
Note the penultimate 4 hour bar which is a pin bar. Price has broken highs and rapidly retraced lower.

Chart 3
5 min chart of this 4 year period
Ignore the solid trendlines-they are longterm levels and are not relevant to what is being discussed. Look at the dotted red lines. It shows the price trading in channels and it's these zones where longer term players will be using to either load up on more longs or liquidate their longer term short positions. I'm not stating any firm preference for direction at this point as there is fundamental news going on in eurozone and I'm not too sure how it affects these two currencies.
Hopefully people can see and understand the process that is going on here through looking at the longer term timeframes, then seeing how it plays out on the shorter time frames. Price could go lower on the 5 min chart and yet still break out higher as the larger long term players would be accumulating positions at different levels and therefore they will be working on an average price scenario.
eurgbp1


eurgbp2


eurgbp3

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Keab View Post
Great example in Eurgbp happening right now.

The thing about "explaining" charts in retrospect is that there are so many of them, and so many patterns, that it's possible to "prove" anything at all - including completely opposing viewpoints. I've had a "certified market analyst" argue, angrily, that the patterns on the chart I showed him proved that his theory (I don't recall which one it was) worked... except that the chart happened to be the random output of a GBM generator that I had written.

That's not to say that all analysis is bunk; I know a number of people who do well with their trading based on the theories that they've learned and/or developed. But I have a VERY strong suspicion that 99.9% of folks pounding the table about their brand of tea-leaf reading would shy away from, say, a $1k bet on their being able to actually predict market movements with a significant win percentage. And while it is reasonable to assume that price action indicates the movements of the larger operators in the market, I don't believe that it would be trivially easy for anyone to track those movements - or, given options/synthetic positions/hedging/etc., to even really understand them the majority of the time. To put it plainly, it would be stupid of them to expose that kind of information to their competition... and people managing large amounts of money aren't selected for their stupidity.

(One of the things that I was taught by an old African hunter is that tracking predators, especially wounded ones, is one of the most dangerous things in the world; they almost always circle back on their own track and lie in ambush. I can't even imagine a large-scale trader who doesn't understand that principle.)

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oceansailor View Post
The thing about "explaining" charts in retrospect is that there are so many of them, and so many patterns, that it's possible to "prove" anything at all - including completely opposing viewpoints. I've had a "certified market analyst" argue, angrily, that the patterns on the chart I showed him proved that his theory (I don't recall which one it was) worked... except that the chart happened to be the random output of a GBM generator that I had written.

That's not to say that all analysis is bunk; I know a number of people who do well with their trading based on the theories that they've learned and/or developed. But I have a VERY strong suspicion that 99.9% of folks pounding the table about their brand of tea-leaf reading would shy away from, say, a $1k bet on their being able to actually predict market movements with a significant win percentage. And while it is reasonable to assume that price action indicates the movements of the larger operators in the market, I don't believe that it would be trivially easy for anyone to track those movements - or, given options/synthetic positions/hedging/etc., to even really understand them the majority of the time. To put it plainly, it would be stupid of them to expose that kind of information to their competition... and people managing large amounts of money aren't selected for their stupidity.

(One of the things that I was taught by an old African hunter is that tracking predators, especially wounded ones, is one of the most dangerous things in the world; they almost always circle back on their own track and lie in ambush. I can't even imagine a large-scale trader who doesn't understand that principle.)

They're not patterns. They are prices that are reacting to orders coming into the markets and conflicting with each other. Obviously by calling them patterns you are attempting to diminish the significance of how and why price does certain things at certain levels. My posts are an attempt to explain this.

If you read them carefully then you will note that it does not mean that people are right 100% of the time. The big boys have conflicting views on things as well, whilst on the longer term you have the issue of changing fundamental info which changes where price should be.

My posts are based on understanding order flow, what it looks like and how the large boys operate. If you look at 5 min charts only and trade them without a longer term appreciation of these factors then you're destined to be in trouble.
I'm not saying it's a system. It's just understanding the market structure and explaining why the price does strange things like take out stops and then reverse many times. A system would be accurately working out when these prices are reached whether to trade a breakout scencario or trade a reversal scenario.
You will see that the eurgbp example is realtime btw so when you say "The thing about "explaining" charts in retrospect is that there are so many of them, and so many patterns, that it's possible to "prove" anything at all " I'll take your apology. You can see how it pans out and give your take on it perhaps? BTW price retraced to the top of that channel and then dropped again. Must be luck on my part. Or coincidence just this once.

Yeah nice, African hunters, great advice.

After all of your reasons saying why this is all bunkum, I'm yet to hear your theories. Is it all random? Please do tell as you seem to be great at criticising using standard trader tales of woe without actually adding anything yourself to the original question that was posted.

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  #87 (permalink)
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algo stop hunting. a algo hunts liquidity , your 1 lot stop is not going to attract an algo. having stops to tight for the volatility of the instrument is almost as bad as not having stops. using a 4 to 8 tick stop on the ES for an example may be to tight . i had a problem trading the ES with that small stop. i tried holy grail domes and foot print charting trying to make the stop i wanted to use work. i could not get the job done .i must be a bad trader or stupid . i went with a 5 point stop and looked for 15 to 30 point targets . that worked for me. hope it helps

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  #88 (permalink)
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Keab View Post
They're not patterns. They are prices that are reacting to orders coming into the markets and conflicting with each other. Obviously by calling them patterns you are attempting to diminish the significance of how and why price does certain things at certain levels. My posts are an attempt to explain this.

If you read them carefully then you will note that it does not mean that people are right 100% of the time. The big boys have conflicting views on things as well, whilst on the longer term you have the issue of changing fundamental info which changes where price should be.

My posts are based on understanding order flow, what it looks like and how the large boys operate. If you look at 5 min charts only and trade them without a longer term appreciation of these factors then you're destined to be in trouble.
I'm not saying it's a system. It's just understanding the market structure and explaining why the price does strange things like take out stops and then reverse many times. A system would be accurately working out when these prices are reached whether to trade a breakout scencario or trade a reversal scenario.
You will see that the eurgbp example is realtime btw so when you say "The thing about "explaining" charts in retrospect is that there are so many of them, and so many patterns, that it's possible to "prove" anything at all " I'll take your apology. You can see how it pans out and give your take on it perhaps? BTW price retraced to the top of that channel and then dropped again. Must be luck on my part. Or coincidence just this once.

Yeah nice, African hunters, great advice.

After all of your reasons saying why this is all bunkum, I'm yet to hear your theories. Is it all random? Please do tell as you seem to be great at criticising using standard trader tales of woe without actually adding anything yourself to the original question that was posted.




I am not sure why you need to justify yourself in any way.
Trading is one of those endeavors where whether you think you can or whether you think you can't you are right.
Chart patterns don't mean anything without an understanding of the double auction process that's creating it.
You lucky dude.....

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  #89 (permalink)
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Keab View Post
They're not patterns. They are prices that are reacting to orders coming into the markets and conflicting with each other. Obviously by calling them patterns you are attempting to diminish the significance of how and why price does certain things at certain levels. My posts are an attempt to explain this.

I'd appreciate it if you'd back off the accusatory tone, as you've already been asked to do.

Now: it's not about me "attempting to diminish" anything. You have a theory, and until you can support it, there's nothing to "diminish"; it is false until proven otherwise. That is what the term "theory" means.


Quoting 
If you read them carefully then you will note that it does not mean that people are right 100% of the time.

Re-read what I wrote. Carefully. I explicitly did not say "100% of the time".


Quoting 
You will see that the eurgbp example is realtime btw

This makes no sense at all. A screenshot is "realtime"? What?


Quoting 
I'll take your apology.

If there was ever a reason to tender one, you would have received it. Meanwhile - there's only one of us who started, and is maintaining, a hostile tone - so while I agree that apologies are owed, you have the direction wrong.


Quoting 
You can see how it pans out and give your take on it perhaps?

Re-read what I wrote. Note the "significant win percentage" phrasing. Anyone making a 50/50 guess is going to be right 50% of the time; that's neither convincing nor interesting.


Quoting 
After all of your reasons saying why this is all bunkum, I'm yet to hear your theories.

Re-read what I wrote. Especially the part where I explicitly said "that's not to say all analysis is bunk". As to sharing my theories - why would I want to do that? Whatever I have, or don't have, is not relevant to your theory's falsity.


P.S. I'm not going to respond to you any further; between your obvious (barely suppressed) hostility, inability or unwillingness to understand what I wrote, and refusal to address the actual glaring flaws in your idea, I don't see anything productive coming out of it. Good luck with your trading.

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  #90 (permalink)
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forgiven View Post
algo stop hunting. a algo hunts liquidity , your 1 lot stop is not going to attract an algo. having stops to tight for the volatility of the instrument is almost as bad as not having stops. using a 4 to 8 tick stop on the ES for an example may be to tight . i had a problem trading the ES with that small stop. i tried holy grail domes and foot print charting trying to make the stop i wanted to use work. i could not get the job done .i must be a bad trader or stupid . i went with a 5 point stop and looked for 15 to 30 point targets . that worked for me. hope it helps

You're correct, that 1 stop won't. But when they're in obvious spots where breakouts occur then it's not just your stop. You're one of many because these are popular places for people to place their stops. Add on those who will be buying the breakout. All add to the liquidity that those larger traders use.

Until price moves to a new level as these stops are eventually traded through and.price moves to a new technical level. Or fundamental market moving news comes out rendering these old levels to be old news.

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  #91 (permalink)
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Keab View Post
You're correct, that 1 stop won't. But when they're in obvious spots where breakouts occur then it's not just your stop. You're one of many because these are popular places for people to place their stops. Add on those who will be buying the breakout. All add to the liquidity that those larger traders use.

Until price moves to a new level as these stops are eventually traded through and.price moves to a new technical level. Or fundamental market moving news comes out rendering these old levels to be old news.

your point is valid . however if 90+ % of the volume is executed by a algo , is the volume of inter day no processional day trader going to matter?

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  #92 (permalink)
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forgiven View Post
your point is valid . however if 90+ % of the volume is executed by a algo , is the volume of inter day no processional day trader going to matter?

Algos tend to front run orders across prices in all different areas and not just the areas that I describe. Algos will also be set up to utilise the liquidity in the areas that I describe for the reasons that I describe.

I have a family member who works on the sell side for a major financial institution. Never really knew what his job was until I visited him at home last week. His job is to buy large amounts of shares that fund managers want in their portfolios. He executes these trades throughout the day in different price areas. One of the areas that he uses are the swing highs and lows for the reasons that I have described. Although it should be noted that this is not the ONLY place he executes his orders.

Was also very interesting to find out that sometimes he also executes his orders via dark pools when he doesn't want others to know his intentions. That's a different subject entirely. He also had a really big Dell monitor that was fantastic in terms of the clarity it gave. That's a different subject too

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