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Are sharks watching on the other side?


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Are sharks watching on the other side?

  #1 (permalink)
 
lamass's Avatar
 lamass 
San Francisco,CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Think or Sweam
Trading: ES
Posts: 20 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 37
Thanks Received: 13

Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

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  #2 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Are you trading real futures or CFD?


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  #3 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
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big banks, institutions and hedgefunds are all watching your ultra, micro, baby account and trade against you

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  #4 (permalink)
 planetkill 
New York City + NY/United States
 
Posts: 343 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 105
Thanks Received: 283

You can use simulated stop loss and market if touch profit targets so that the broker and exchange do not see your resting orders. With a simulated stop loss, the order only lives on your local chart, and is sent as a market order when the price condition is met. Hedge funds won't know where your stops are so you shouldn't feel that they are manipulating the price just to take your money
lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

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  #5 (permalink)
 
RJay's Avatar
 RJay 
Hartford, CT. USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG, Kinetick
Trading: RTY
Posts: 682 since Jun 2009
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Algo Sharks are always watching. You by yourself are not big enough to be noticed. If a hundred other traders are making the same trade as you, now you are in trouble. You know the sharks are there. Take the trade that they are taking. Otherwise, you are just bait.

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  #6 (permalink)
 planetkill 
New York City + NY/United States
 
Posts: 343 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 105
Thanks Received: 283

I agree with take the trades the sharks take!

Become a trap trader!
If you feel like you're always being stopped out just before a large swing into the other direction, then stop jumping in too soon. Instead spot your entry as you normally do, but do not enter! Instead now wait for the sharks to trap people like you before, then afterwards watch the price reverse and get in at this point

Ez pz


RJay View Post
Algo Sharks are always watching. You by yourself are not big enough to be noticed. If a hundred other traders are making the same trade as you, now you are in trouble. You know the sharks are there. Take the trade that they are taking. Otherwise, you are just bait.

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

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  #7 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
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There is a constant evolving metagame being played with technicals. Robots backtest to see what strategies are working recently, and attempt to switch strategies based on what is working. Other robots attempt to determine what will be popular next so they can counter the meta.

So when you have something that works, it's usually a matter of time before the market figures it out. The nature of edge is such that they're always working to arbitrage any market inefficiencies. There's lots of ways that the market adjusts for this. For instance, trades with high probability usually move more when they fail. But a lot of the strategies that tape readers find balance out by having bad draw-downs. So the strategy will work great for 3 months, and then all the sudden you lose every time.

Which is why I just don't think it works long term to trade on pure technicals. You should understand the environment you are in, and why it leads to that particular setup working well. Lately we've had an environment where almost everything works. So I think you know where that goes...

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  #8 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
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Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
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Open two accounts. Take offsetting positions in each of them. Observe that one will be in profit, one will be in loss. Hopefully this cures you from the paranoia that "they" care about you. Yes, liquidity runs are made, and yes, it's to trap traders and find liquidity. But it's not for you -- just for you and others who thought like you did at the time.

But let's back up. The market's job is to facilitate trade. Orders to sell and buy are placed. This moves the market. Algos, who are the dominant force in the market now, do make 'predatory' moves in order to seek liquidity and profit; but, largely, they are merely there to fill orders in response to market conditions. For example, a large fund has an automated system that will sell a holding if the stock drops below its 200D MA. The algo may be a simple VWAP algo ... it may be something like "sell to fill above VWAP; if the market gets below the VWAP by X%, sell at the market (to fill the order even at unfavorable prices)" ... it has a job to do and will do whatever it's programmed to do, to fill the order. That's it. This particular algo is not out to get you.

As a practical rule of thumb (1) place your order to buy or sell, and (2) note where your stop would be. Now (3) cancel your order, and (4) place your order where your stop was going to be as observed in #2.

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  #9 (permalink)
 TraderDoc007 
Detroit MI/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Multicharts, Custom own
Trading: All Futures
Posts: 66 since Sep 2017
Thanks Given: 41
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The past week the markets have been stuck churning sideways. Do your techniques account for prolonged sideways action? Important to trade current market conditions with the correct type of strategy.

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  #10 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,158 since Jan 2013
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lamass View Post
Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?

Other people have commented, often with better responses than mine will be. But my only contribution is that your account is just not that important for any of the big players to want to take your money. There just isn't enough money there. Nor for your broker to have any incentive to sell the information about what you are doing. I'm not trying to run you down, because my account is not important enough either.

Unless, as @Big Mike asked, you are not trading in actual futures but in CFD's, then the market just doesn't work the way you suppose. I'm not saying this because I am too rosy-eyed about the market (which is, as we should all know, totally cutthroat), but because you, and I, are not a big prize. I don't think that "they" are after the big accounts either, but why would they want yours? This is a realistic question.

I and every other trader has had a similar type of experience that you describe. One possibility is that you (and I) are in fact the target of evil doing, as you said. Another is that we make bad trades sometimes, even if they are just like the other, successful ones. I have certainly thought about the "do the opposite of what I'm doing" idea, but when I thought about how to implement that I broke down and laughed. What solves the problem is to realize whatever you are doing that puts you in the wrong position, and act differently. If you put a buy or sell order at the same spot that most other traders do, then your order will be matched, of course, but who will then drive price up/down in your direction so you will profit? If you run with the crowd, you will not beat it.

I don't have concrete advice, and perhaps (probably?) you will ignore what I have said. But really, forget the idea that "they" are out for you, and find out what works for you as a trader. Since you have had periods when you have done well, the best thing is to look at what changed in the market that made your trade choices not succeed. Something did. Find that and your issue with "them" will go away, because "they" don't care about you anyway, and don't know you are there, just as they don't know I am there either.

If you are willing to be responsible for your trading, you can find out why it sometimes works and sometimes does not -- a phenomenon we all experience. Then you can change the cycle, which I hope you do.

I do want you to succeed. I hope you will take what I have said seriously and see if you can make some changes and move past these issues.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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