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I did a bit of backtesting for T3 strategies, and I was not impressed. I programmed two of their setups before moving on to other things. I found some evidence to support some of their ideas, but overall the signals they gave were not profitable. I actually found a good setup by waiting a good 20-40 minutes after their short signal and then entering long when their trade failed. However, I think this is only working because of the whole BTFD tendency markets have had these last few years.
If they're making money it's probably more from their stock selection than it is their signal setups. But hey at least they have specific setups that I could sit down and program. Most educators seem to intentionally avoid telling you anything that you could backtest like that.
Thank you for posting your experience with them. I went to the website for fun, and everything about it read scam to me.
Of course we don't have the time or energy to test all these vendors, so trusting intuition is the only way to go, since none of these vendors ever prove current trading success with their methods. The best they can do is provide random screenshots from days where the setups worked, but at best their strategies are breakeven, but more than likely lose money over the long term.
I understand your frustration. As others have mentioned many of us have been there.
If I can provide some actionable pieces of advice then I'll certainly try! Apologies if I sound cold or short, it's just an attempt to put terms and theories into recognisable language which can lead to a less conversational tone.
The first thing that I can glean from what you say is that you are once like I was. You see the market, you see the prices amd you see the price levels on the chart without understanding the buying and selling process behind them. Why people are buying and selling where they are buying and selling.
The market is essentially driven by large players who buy and sell mind boggling amounts of whatever market they're in. If it's ES futures as an example, if you go down to a short term chart (1min or a 2000 vol chart in US market hours) you will see what looks like strange choppy price action a lot of the time. If this is occurring near major swing highs or lows then there is a very good chance that these players are accumulating their long or short positions. They are buying in such large amounts that if they are going long, every time price drops they will buy more and more using limit orders to buy at slightly lower (and therefore slightly better) prices. This can go on for ages until they have bought everything, exhausted sellers and then price moves higher.
But here's the thing. They are LOADED with buy positions/contracts. Thousands of them. Literally thousands. If they wanted to sell them all in one go, or even gradually, then these sell orders would most likely swamp the market as the selling would far out weigh anything on the buy side. Which means worse prices for them (and more risk of losing money).
So what can they do? How can they get rid of these thousands of long (buy side) contracts without causing lower prices and a potential reversal?
Well it's quite logical. They need to find an area where they think thousands of sell orders are resting. They can use these thousands of sell orders to liquidate their longs at a great price without depressing the matket prices too much. And if there are enough sell orders residing there, or if the large players intend to use the massive amount of passive sell orders to not only make a great profit but to also open large short positions as well (at a great price) then hey we have a reversal on our hands.
That's the game. Day in day out. Sometimes prices reverse at these levels
Sometimes they go right through them and then react at other areas where this 'liquidity ' (large amounts of passive limit orders) are residing.
So the question is, where do you think these large amounts of passive orders will be residing?
If you already know this, or someone has explained it to you then great stuff
I've heard this theory again and again, and the one thing that always rings false to me - the thing that makes it impossible - is the situation in the last paragraph. If these large players know that they are going to end up in this situation by accumulating these huge positions, then why in the world would they accumulate these positions? If they are willing to buy at X and sell at Y, why would they not buy at every X and sell at every Y instead of endlessly accumulating and then having to deal with getting out of a huge position, or taking a chance at getting trapped in that huge position?
There are indeed forces that move the market - but I don't think they're as simplistic as this "large players" theory makes it out to be. If that was the case, then other large players who saw this kind of accumulation would simply take advantage of the inherent arbitrage opportunity. In fact, I believe that anything that simple - anything that can be reduced to a simple logical problem (and thus to a program) - already has been, and thus no longer exists as an opportunity.
