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Are sharks watching on the other side?


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Are sharks watching on the other side?

  #41 (permalink)
 
jakobe's Avatar
 jakobe 
Atlanta, Georgia
 
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If lightning strikes on the ground at location "X" but you thought it should strike at location "Z" who is wrong? You.

The markets are like the bolt of lightning striking the ground. It is nor right nor wrong. It just is.

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
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  #43 (permalink)
 DaveS 
Uxbridge UK
 
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I have very often had that very feeling, there's a gremlin in there and its only job is to ensure that I make continual losses. Its ridiculous of course, but that feeling persists. I have tried many methods and systems, some my own and some proprietary. I have usually forced myself to adhere to their rules, but it does not help. Its a strange and uncanny feeling you get when 5 or 6 trades in a row turn against you after one tick or two.
I have recently stopped discresionary trading altogether and am spending my time trying to write a profitable automated system.

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  #44 (permalink)
 oceansailor 
Tampa FL
 
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lamass View Post
Finally a reasonable person here- although he thinks he is facetious. Yes, I was feeling they were after my $600. And after many thousands of $600-ts accounts. And they do it just as an aperitif. Because they can. If I had millions and B$s, I would do the same. Clean up the Plankton- then head for the real meal.

And while you were wasting time doing that, another one of these supposed "sharks" - one who was watching your account, which is possible in your imaginary world - would clean you out. Do you understand that?

I get that paranoid mindset - I've experienced it myself - but its glaring flaw is that the situation you're imagining consists of only two players: you and a "shark" who is out to get you. And that "shark" spend millions of dollars moving the market - because that is what it would take - to get your $600.

So let's pretend for a moment that your scenario was true - but add in more players. Let's start with just one for now: another "shark" (lets call him "Shark B" to contrast him from your "Shark A".) Shark B also knows all about you - and in addition, knows that Shark A has the habit of injecting millions of dollars into the market chasing after your stops.

You DO understand that Shark B would simply RAPE Shark A, right? And that Shark A would be out of business after doing that, right?

The point is that this kind of imaginary stop-chasing cannot exist - because it would be absolutely stupid, completely predictable, and (in very short order) self-destructive behavior for anyone who tried it.

Understand this key point: YES, people in the market are out to get your money. Hell, I'll take it if I see you being dumb enough to give it away; anybody would. But the way you're imagining it would destroy the "taker" in very short order - which is why no one is ever going to do it that way. It's a fairy-tale monster under the bed; one that can't exist in real life for even a moment.

Shortcut: LISTEN to @josh, and other people who are saying the same things that he is. Seriously. Try to understand what he's saying. THAT - the actual psychology of the buyers and the sellers - is what moves the market. Anyone with a simplistic, naive, fairy-tale view of how the markets work... those are the folks who provide liquidity (and spend their time complaining about "sharks".) Think about which one you want to be.

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  #45 (permalink)
 seattle7 
Seattle, WA
 
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lamass --- What I would suggest, if I may, is that for the moment, you turn your attention away from trading the market and onto what is known as "locus of control," and see if you can learn anything from it and how that might apply to your current experience.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locus_of_control

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/moments-matter/201708/locus-control

https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-locus-of-control-2795434

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  #46 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
Georgia, US
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Piling on my boy @lamass like:



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  #47 (permalink)
bdlibra
Miami Fl / USA
 
Posts: 1 since Mar 2018
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Yeah. I have the same impression. Stops get taken out just to the point where I've placed stops, even if they are located outside when my stops are placed in unusual places.
It seems as if someone sees my stops then deliberately takes them out before continuing in the direction I expected the price to go. The boogie man seems to be watching in the gloom.
lamass View Post
Markets are changing constantly. That's given.
But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me.
That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call.
Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same.
I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose.
However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money.
But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed.
Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!]
I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result.


Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains.

Flabbergasted!

Does somebody have the experience that you are watched?
[ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]


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  #48 (permalink)
 EgoRisk 
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA
 
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Blash View Post
This business is about being in control of your person.
Ron

..nuff said.

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  #49 (permalink)
 
TCCONDE's Avatar
 TCCONDE 
San Francisco, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tastyworks
Broker: Tastyworks
Trading: CL, ZW, ZS, ZC, ES, NG, Smalls
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I am going to take a wild guess that you, and your small account, are safe. What you are seeing is volatility, and as an options trader, that is one of the two best friends I have, the other being liquidity. This is why I stopped setting stop-loss orders. The trade would go against me and I'd be stopped out, but then it would invariably come back. We make money from that volatility. I have made an awful lot more money since I stopped setting stop-loss orders. Yes, the volatility in this market is going to take you for a ride but you have to give "good" trades time to marinade and come to their senses. You have to give it time to work. While you may or may not be right about the big boys having a window into your account, I would ask you why they would care about what you, or I, do? Whether I buy 5 ZC, 10 NG, or whatever it is, trust me, I am part of the rounding error in the scheme of things.

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  #50 (permalink)
 IFeelLikeNeo   is a Vendor
 
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Haven't had time to read all the replies, so apologies if this has been said, but it also strikes me that this is also a natural outcome of trading.... do it long enough and you'll have periods where it seems every trade goes against you. Just like you have times when every trade goes your way.

I recommend reading Taleb's books on this, so you can both see these periods for what they are (randomness), and manage them too!

Remember, there are only four outcomes to a trade; big profit, small profit, small loss, big loss. You only have to avoid big losses to stay ahead!

J

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