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Interesting observation. I notice your charts are ticks and not timeframe. I use timeframe so you have given me something to investigate further with regard to ticks. I wish I could quickly backtest this for you and give you a definitive answer that you are onto something with the 1-2-3 denials before a big move in the other direction. I’d probably bring in volume to that kind of analysis. My guess is there would be a correlation between volume and the amount of consolidation you are seeing at those levels and of course what happened the last time price was at those levels.
Disclaimer.. I am not a pro and my trade listed here was a Sim trade using non-real time data. My trade was a break down trade below the last strong solid green at 8:15PM 6/9/20 as my support reference bar. The trade was at 1:20 AM breakdown trade with a specific target (confluence at 5 bar ma and other support. My entry was not perfect because I am not using real time data. (practice mode). It should have been below the red line.
I believe you are using a break out type strategy, but I personally need to see it break out from congestion to enter.
Another example of what I like is the triangle breakout at 3:55 this morning 6/10/20.
I would also have a concern about using a 10 pt profit target rather than a structured target at some type of resistance. Premature entries before the breakout are prone to fail.
