NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Statistical edge in trading the indexes e-minis


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Rustic with 7 posts (5 thanks)
    2. looks_two 133usd with 6 posts (10 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Billiwon with 4 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 InvestiQuant with 3 posts (7 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one InvestiQuant with 2.3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Ozquant with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 133usd with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Rustic with 0.7 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 8,523 views
    2. thumb_up 28 thanks given
    3. group 18 followers
    1. forum 25 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Statistical edge in trading the indexes e-minis

  #21 (permalink)
 Billiwon 
Los Angeles, California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: Index futures, etc.
Posts: 53 since Aug 2014
Thanks Given: 93
Thanks Received: 26


133usd View Post
I don't know anything about the ADX indicator but expanding ATR could help gauge activity yeah. I usually just look at the speed of the actual tape (time and sales) as it reacts to levels. Right now it's crawling really slow, obviously. The less lagging the better, imo. So yes the lack of activity causes problems for us. Knowing when to trade is huge I think. And then knowing what strategy will work given the conditions and if the conditions are actually slowly changing before your eyes, and to be able to sense that in real time in order to say "hey I usually stop when I've made $200, but this can be an exception due to XYZ"

Last night I traded euro session and was able to make $200 and then got some sleep. Came back at US open in order to see if I could at least add to that a little more (pushing myself a little bit to test myself and my rule). I expected price to stay range bound, made $75 extra and quit, but the conditions were not easy for me today.

Stopping while ahead for the day is probably due to an emotional need of feeling some amount of certainty, which I admit isn't the best practice! Many times it works out in my favor, but I've also missed countless setups too. Several times a day I am "feeling out" my emotional state. Am I forcing a trade? Am I chasing? Am I frustrated?

Volume profile is interesting, but I don't yet use it or fully understand how I could use it (would like to use it though or have it as a reference), other than high volume areas are congested popular entry points and the low volume points can be traded through very quickly, due to a lack of volume there. The higher volume spots can support or reject price at times. So based on what I know about volume profile, that would at least help filter trades, if one decides to continue after hitting a "target daily profit".

ADX is an indicator which shows the strength of a trend (or lack of). Using its standard setting of a 14-bar lookback (for example), an ADX level below about 20 would mean price has been moving more or less sideways. An ADX level above 30 or so means recent price has been trending. One of my techniques is to watch when ADX comes from a low level and starts to go up, that usually indicates price is breakout out from a trendless mode into a trend. I go in direction of the price breakout (or after a small retracement and that trend continues), usually good for a few points or more. (ES is $50 a point.) So I avoid entering into a trade when ADX is low or is dropping, that coupled with certain times of day when we all expect lack of price movement, gives me certain situations when not to trade.

I don't use time and sales as that is too fast for me.
I don't use market profile as that is too slow for me.

This is what I feel about the concept of "stop trading when a daily profit goal is reached" -- Let's ignore the attention span, being tired and distraction conditions for now. I think the expectancy of profit of my next trade hinges on my ability of reading the price action that's coming up (or not coming up), and the expected market motion action (e.g. breaking out from a congestion into a trend) is what will provide me profitable trades. Whether or not my previous trades so far for the day have cumulatively reached an arbitrary $ limit amount does not have that much correlation to the success of my next trade, for my way of trades. Your way may be different. Good luck and good trading to you.

~ Bill

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
About a successful futures trader who didn´t know anyth …
Psychology and Money Management
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
Cheap historycal L1 data for stocks
Stocks and ETFs
 
  #22 (permalink)
Average Joe
Singapore
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2017
Thanks Given: 21
Thanks Received: 13


133usd View Post
I absolutely use that statistic every day! I trade between 8am and 11am and the low or high of the day happens approximately 40% to 60% of the time within the first hour or so. There are a lot of "things" for me to remember.

I am profitable finally after years and slowly becoming more of a "retail professional" I guess. But I do not trade in a mechanical way, at all. I'm very creative naturally, so maybe a way of explaining it is to connect your left and right side of your brain and then you'll get my "system".

Because look...here's an example having to do with the opening range... you might be buying support right? Then suddenly support is a trap-door that opens downward with a rush of selling on the Tape, and you need to be flexible to at least exit and possibly reverse (realizing you are wrong vs being shook out unnecessarily). Also, there are days I scale into my position. Today at open I sold, and I kept selling, because I knew price was near resistance and prior highs that held. It rode a little bit against me, but not enough to even make me nervous at all.

I'm a scalper who refuses to trade more than 3-4 hours a day. So even though I do use that statistic you mentioned, I don't turn 1 single statistic into a full blown "mechanical system". I try to keep my trading loose.
I can attribute most of my improvements to monitoring my psychology and learning how to use the Jigsaw platform. I'm reading the tape for large orders and I have a tape for small orders, as well as total bid/ask at each price summarized. My alerts are set for large trades, icebergs, and divergences (good for turns, absorption, or knowing when price is stalling).


I'm looking for momentum in the tape, is the tape speeding up at a turning point?
Cumulative delta vs price is often helpful. When you get a massive divergence lasting hours, that's the big trade about to pop! That was yesterday's long...a negative divergence with price trading up steadily.

I don't know what I would do without a proper Time & Sales tape at this point. It would be like trading blind. It saved me on Monday..all it took was 1 trade to show up for me to close and reverse. Eventually the cards are shown and if you watch closely, you can take a "free" ride.


hi, what do you look for on the Time and Sales?

Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)
Ozquant
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
Posts: 220 since Aug 2017
Thanks Given: 167
Thanks Received: 380



Rustic View Post
I recently came across some very interesting articles that discuss statistical evidence of certain price behaviors during the trading day that could be taken advantage of when trading.
Al Brooks is one example of a discretionary trader that uses statistics such as - in 90% of the days the high or low of the day happen during the first 1.5 hours of the day - as a trading edge.

Are there experienced traders here who successfully use such statistical edges in their trading? which ones?

Yes

Key point is to measure with maths and visualize data firstly . then we need to test and validate any clear visual patterns . Some decent coding skills required , paramount skill required . Need to make it objective . This is part of my set of ASX indice explorations . Few years of hardcore learning / research to get the skillset needed . there are literally a 100 things you can measure to define best intra times / days to trade , places that market rotates to on a regular basis . Patterns that suggest the next 2 hours / days bias . There is no end to the unique edges you can find . Most of my best edges ive not seen else where .



Just a couple things marked on chart here , total cash range overlaid on price with closing gaps and weekly cash close . Range in first 90 minutes and total cash range , individual bar size , volatility on 2 time frames . momentum on 2 time frames , x period highs and lows etc etc . monday and fridays are highlighted in colour

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #24 (permalink)
 Grantx 
Reading UK
Legendary no drama Llama
 
Experience: None
Posts: 1,787 since Oct 2016
Thanks Given: 2,826
Thanks Received: 5,059


Ozquant View Post
there are literally a 100 things you can measure

That sentence right there is a fundamental truth that traders need too understand. Edges come and go in perpetuity. It is your job as a trader to not only be aware of this constant change, but to capitalise on it for as long as it exists. Stats is easy but time consuming.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #25 (permalink)
 133usd 
Portland, ME
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw, TOS, Firetip
Trading: YM, MYM, stocks, options
Posts: 51 since Feb 2020
Thanks Given: 17
Thanks Received: 85


Average Joe View Post
hi, what do you look for on the Time and Sales?

With time &sales, I look at it for confirmation when price hits a level I'm watching. The pace of the tape, is it crawling or speeding up. Is it pausing. High volume or sweeps with volume. I trade a thinner market so a little market order volume can move price substantially.

With time and sales I look for reoccurring bursts in market orders at specific points. Really small patterns to pick up on which reveal the bias I want to form. I get an audible alert so I dont have to glue my eyes to the tape. Ideally I like to be in my trade before the volume is spotted.

Watching time and sales will not be a dead give away. Some days it's not as useful. Other days I will catch a pattern or see a large transaction at a level I want to trade and then it just clicks.
But still not the holy grail at all.

For example, today, I was long prior to the end of the day run up on Mini DOW (I was long way too early on, but small position). Price was sitting below the VWAP. Some larger traders/institutions will have an execution algo that buys if price is below the VWAP. Today happened to be that day. Around 1pm I had an alert for good buying volume on the tape...we aren't talking MASSIVE...but 46 contracts (as a single block, and several other blocks of 20-30), plus steady buy volume of randomized size pushing price above the VWAP. There are plenty of times this won't work, but since I was already long a small position, I just wanted to watch for confirmation. The buy volume on the tape was steady after that point and I had plenty of alerts for buy market volume.
So you use time & sales with plenty of context, definitely.
And I wasn't in love with this setup so I didn't get aggressive and add to it as I sometimes do.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #26 (permalink)
Rustic
Bucharest
 
Posts: 26 since Mar 2020
Thanks Given: 9
Thanks Received: 15


133usd View Post
With time &sales, I look at it for confirmation when price hits a level I'm watching. The pace of the tape, is it crawling or speeding up. Is it pausing. High volume or sweeps with volume. I trade a thinner market so a little market order volume can move price substantially.

That makes a lot of sense, mostly for scalpers.

So you are not using the volume profile, only the T&S?

Would it be possible for you to post a couple a screenshots of you platform with bullish and bearish T&S conditions?

Cheers!

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on July 1, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts