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2 Points per day from ES??


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2 Points per day from ES??

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  #1 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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Ok, I'm starting this thread in off topic because I'm asking this more for fun than really serious but, who here thinks it's either "easy" or "realistic" to squeeze 2 points per day from the ES (or equivalent from whatever market you are trading?)

If I could dream, I would love to be able to trade 10 contracts and pull 2 points per day away and be done by 10am each day.....

Or better yet, trade 20 contracts and only have to pick up 1 point.... Or 40 contracts and pull 1/2 point....

Whatdy'all think? Can it be done ? Am I a crazy newb?

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  #2 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
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One of the first thing that is required is learning to ask the right questions. You have it in the wrong order. The question is not can i make 2 points/day on a regular basis but rather what type of education do i need to get to reach this elusive goal or something similar to this type of question. It's a slow and for some a painfull process but it's certainly doable. In reality, i think 2 points/day on average is a bit border line, too low as an objective.

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  #3 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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Yes, yes, I appreciate that but, this is just a fun thread

Dream with me for a minute - LOL

Let's say we have our 10,000 hours of practice, spend 2-4 years studying, have mastered the art of money management and have control over our psychological issues.....

Is 2 points not a reasonable dream?

Some of you are already there, I am not.....

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  #4 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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Why dreaming when you can make it YOUR reality ;-)

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  #5 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Why dreaming when you can make it YOUR reality ;-)


Good point, trend, I think I might do that !!!

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  #6 (permalink)
 incometrade 
Rochester Hills, Michigan
 
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I agree with you its nice to have goals and dreams of the what if 10 20 contracts but you also must think in my opinion is what can you lose. With that much reward also comes huge risk. I believe its all in the entry..and if done right you will have minimal risk and great reward potential. Good luck.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Zoethecus 
United States of America
 
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The "2 points a day and quit" rally cry has gone on ever since the ES came into existence by sleazebag vendors who couldn't make 2 points profit in a month, let alone a day. What a seductive come on to seperate you from your money for the system that will make all your dreams come true.

I'd wager less then 5% of all retail traders achieve this net after commission.

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  #8 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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Zoethecus View Post
The "2 points a day and quit" rally cry has gone on ever since the ES came into existence by sleazebag vendors who couldn't make 2 points profit in a month, let alone a day. What an seductive come on to seperate you from your money for the system that will make all your dreams come true.

I'd wager less then 5% of all retail traders achieve this net after commission.


Interesting, since I have never sought out a "holy grail" , I've never heard this from any vendor that I have encountered but, I don't doubt at all they are out there.

Why do you think less the 5% of retail traders don't make this? Because 95% are seeking a get-rich-quick solution or lack of intelligence/ability?? Or something else??

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  #9 (permalink)
 Zoethecus 
United States of America
 
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tammyd549 View Post
Interesting, since I have never sought out a "holy grail" , I've never heard this from any vendor that I have encountered but, I don't doubt at all they are out there.

Why do you think less the 5% of retail traders don't make this? Because 95% are seeking a get-rich-quick solution or lack of intelligence/ability?? Or something else??

Here's why. I have been trading my own funds in futures for 11 years. During that time, I employed an accountant who does tax returns only for retail traders and CTAs. He has told me from the beginning that nothing has changed; namely, 95% of his clients who trade futures loose money BEFORE commissions and other costs.

Call me gullible, but I believe him.

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  #10 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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Zoethecus View Post
Here's why. I have been trading my own funds in futures for 11 years. During that time, I employed an accountant who does tax returns only for retail traders and CTAs. He has told me from the beginning that nothing has changed; namely, 95% of his clients who trade futures loose money BEFORE commissions and other costs.

Call me gullible, but I believe him.


Oh, I don't doubt you at all !!!

I was just curious as to your thoughts about why it is 95% loose money before commissions.

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  #11 (permalink)
 traderwerks 
Taipei Taiwan
 
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tammyd549 View Post
Ok, I'm starting this thread in off topic because I'm asking this more for fun than really serious but, who here thinks it's either "easy" or "realistic" to squeeze 2 points per day from the ES (or equivalent from whatever market you are trading?)

If I could dream, I would love to be able to trade 10 contracts and pull 2 points per day away and be done by 10am each day.....

Or better yet, trade 20 contracts and only have to pick up 1 point.... Or 40 contracts and pull 1/2 point....

Whatdy'all think? Can it be done ? Am I a crazy newb?

Two points a day. You can only take from the market what the market gives you. Trying to pick a number that the market gives you is not going to work. Volatility is volatility and it changes all the time.

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  #12 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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tammyd549 View Post
Ok, I'm starting this thread in off topic because I'm asking this more for fun than really serious but, who here thinks it's either "easy" or "realistic" to squeeze 2 points per day from the ES (or equivalent from whatever market you are trading?)

If I could dream, I would love to be able to trade 10 contracts and pull 2 points per day away and be done by 10am each day.....

Or better yet, trade 20 contracts and only have to pick up 1 point.... Or 40 contracts and pull 1/2 point....

Whatdy'all think? Can it be done ? Am I a crazy newb?

we can start with some general rules
- 10m chart
- 4 bars between a-b trend line
- wait until bar close to make decision

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  #13 (permalink)
eminitrader
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Is anyone here able to get 2 points a day in Sim or Live?

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  #14 (permalink)
 lipton80205 
Denver, CO
 
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eminitrader View Post
Is anyone here able to get 2 points a day in Sim or Live?


No.

I sim traded the ES for 3 months with a goal of 2 pts per car per day. I was trading 1 car. I had a 53% win rate. But commissions killed my P&L.

My problem was I had a 1:1 R/R. I have revised my rules and now only take trades with 1:2 R/R. My setup is a 1st car with a 1:1.5 R/R and the 2nd car with a 1:2 R/R. There are less setups in a day, but I am doing much better. Still trading in sim, but should be going live soon.

Yes I think there are people who take 2 pts out of the ES everyday. However, I think the average Joe would be better off looking at S&R for entries and exits. If the S&R will allow for more then 2pts, then why not take it, you don’t have to have a high win % to be profitable.

Being done by 10:00 AM would be nice, but I think you have to look at trading as a full time career. Some days will be easy (count your blessings) but most days will be a challenging.

Just my 2 cents.

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  #15 (permalink)
tammyd549
vancouver, canada
 
 
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eminitrader View Post
Is anyone here able to get 2 points a day in Sim or Live?


I have been on sim for the past 3 weeks and have averaged 2.04 points per day, trading between 1-5 contracts at a time on ES.

Just sim though.... real life will be much different, I can feel it....

I am hoping to go live in 2-3 weeks.

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  #16 (permalink)
 Snoop 
Toronto, Ontario
 
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This is the problem with most Sim trading - you're first in line in the order book so you get filled much easier than in real life.

As to the question - it is definitely possible to make 2 pt per day consistently, BUT unrealistic. Most days I'll scratch out a gain or a small loss - all the time trying to protect capital. Then a nice trend day comes along and it makes my month. But if you are targeting a specific profit, you're likely to taking yourself out of winners. This is the curse of the unprofitable trader. Same issue with scalping - you train yourself to exit winners, maximize losers and generate some nice commission for your broker.


tammyd549 View Post
I have been on sim for the past 3 weeks and have averaged 2.04 points per day, trading between 1-5 contracts at a time on ES.

Just sim though.... real life will be much different, I can feel it....

I am hoping to go live in 2-3 weeks.


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  #17 (permalink)
 wavey 
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not a healthy question to start into consistency territory, the first thing everybody's interested today: what can you make? lol - quite all you ever need if and if you have the skills and edge: know which times / days to take off and also personally where you 'break' point is...hardest thing for me to learn was to simply walk away.

there are also better instruments to take 100$ per car and day.

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  #18 (permalink)
 AR01 
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Do you have a trading plan? Is this why you are asking the question so you can set target expectations? Do you work on your loss expectations in your trading plan also?

Professional traders don't think, "Look how much I could have made in that trade." They think, "Look how much I could have lost." Capital preservation is key to us retail traders.

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  #19 (permalink)
stevo7
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1. Protect your principal

2. Trade to trade well

If you do these two things, the money will come.

Focus on the execution, not the end result.

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  #20 (permalink)
 MetalTrade 
 
 
Posts: 1,081 since May 2010

My goal on the forex is 20pips a day. Once I reach this I'm done trading. 2 standard contracts trades.

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  #21 (permalink)
DummyWill
Louisiana mostly
 
 
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Snoop View Post
...you train yourself to exit winners, maximize losers and generate some nice commission for your broker.

Snoop, you get the award for the quote that made the most people cringe with recognition!

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 babypowder 
Brooklyn, NY
 
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Late response but why just 2 pts, im beating a dead horse but set your goal to 20 pts daily. If you reach for the moon, and fail at least you'll be amongst the stars....

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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babypowder View Post
Late response but why just 2 pts, im beating a dead horse but set your goal to 20 pts daily. If you reach for the moon, and fail at least you'll be amongst the stars....

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

most likely it comes from LBR talks as she preaches again and again all you need is 2ps a day. Again this is not 'aim high/aim low' issue, this is consistency issue.

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  #24 (permalink)
 babypowder 
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Agreed, daily goals should be the last step after your strategy/set rules had tested time. If at all it will become a hindrance to your set rules and over all success.

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  #25 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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I think the original question should be rephrased...

Instead of 2 Points per day on the ES! Can it be done ?

By

2 opportunities per day on the ES and be profitable at the end of the week! can it be done ? And as a corollary what can i expect in terms of ticks if i trade 2 contracts with a starting stop loss at -2 points considering i cover 1 contract at +1 point and set the other contract at break even to protect my capital. At +2 points on the remaining contract, i trail my stop 1 point behind. This scenario is valid if the ATR[14] hovers around 13+ points/day and i trade at peak hours. So what can i expect in terms of tick ?


That's the new revised question. Hope it will bring you a plethora of good commentaries or revision.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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As a yardstick you can use the ATR like this:

To form an expectation of what you can make day trading, use a 7 period ATR (average true range) on a daily interval of your market calculated once per week usually on a Friday or Monday. This will provide you with a consistent way to measure your performance against the market's current volatility.

For example = if the market ATR for the S&P is 16 points and you are averaging 16 points per week, you are making 100% of the ATR.

If in your live trading you only average 74% of the ATR or less then you know it is time to go back to simulator and maybe evaluate why your performance has dropped.

Using the ATR will allow you to adjust for volatility. For example if the ATR goes up to 20 points and your trading on simulator has been at 100% of the ATR then you would expect to make 20 points per week as the potential profit in your live trading.

In any case, if you have not yet a trading tactic you might want to consider some here:
https://www.trading-naked.com/Setups.htm

Again, let me revisit and refine your original question in light of the site mentioned above:
Can we make a living off one or two setups only ?

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  #27 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
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Pulling your stop to breakeven after +1 point, your bound to get stopped out alot on your second contract with the ES... Most of the times, it will stop you out on your second contract, then take off.

If you want to play that game, i would do 1 car, for a 1 point profit, then add again at original entry with the same car... I've actually tested this, and it's better than doing 2 cars and raising your stop to breakeven..
You do have to use the same stop though on your add.

It's been a while since i tested this trading style, since i don't do 2 cars anymore, and im trying to pull away from the ES since it fills back and forth alot. But your welcome to test it out on sim

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 rtrade 
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Hi Tammy,

Wow, you got a lot great opinions from seasoned traders. Ultimately the decision is up to you...if you truly believe you can get 2 pts in ES per day, then it will happen. The first 3 hrs of market open is the best time to do it.

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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 Michael.H 
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The beauty and the reason why this trading style works better is not just because your taking advantage of the choppy nature of the ES, its also because if you never hit your target, you get stopped out on only 1 contract, where as if you did 2, you would get stopped out on 2 cars.
That's why this style had a better expectancy than pulling to break-even.
You do have to be a bit of a discretionary trader on this though. If you see the markets are slow, on your add, try to get a better fill by using limit orders below your original entry. Or You can buy a pullback and going market by using the nyse tick to do this( when you get +/- 400 readings). When the markets are trending, you might want to use 2 since you'll prob won't be able to re-add. Again, you gotta be able to spot early on how the markets are behaving, and that comes from experience and homework.
Clue, look at volume for trending days/non trending days.
But for now, do sim with 1 car and be patient.
Tell me how it goes, i would be interested how well this still works. We're heading into december trading, which is slow and choppy, so you should get some good results.

Michael.H View Post
Pulling your stop to breakeven after +1 point, your bound to get stopped out alot on your second contract with the ES... Most of the times, it will stop you out on your second contract, then take off.

If you want to play that game, i would do 1 car, for a 1 point profit, then add again at original entry with the same car... I've actually tested this, and it's better than doing 2 cars and raising your stop to breakeven..
You do have to use the same stop though on your add.

It's been a while since i tested this trading style, since i don't do 2 cars anymore, and im trying to pull away from the ES since it fills back and forth alot. But your welcome to test it out on sim


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 jmejedi 
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asking for 2 points profit . . . to me........... seems greedy ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, hell . . . . I would be happy with 2 - 3 ticks profit ,,, on the ES ................ everyday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, with of course... almost never losing . . . . . But of course,, that's not a guarantee ...... and so the question becomes..... when I lose, how much is the most I can lose, which in turn, doesn't takeout my entire profits from prior trades . . . . . . . . Aww ,,,, "the million dollar question" . . . . .

if there's a strategy/system out there . . . . that can give me 99% chance I'll make 2 - 3 ticks profit each day on the ES . . . . then I'm dieing to know ? ? ? ?

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 researcher247 
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jmejedi View Post
asking for 2 points profit . . . to me........... seems greedy ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, hell . . . . I would be happy with 2 - 3 ticks profit ,,, on the ES ................ everyday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, with of course... almost never losing . . . . . But of course,, that's not a guarantee ...... and so the question becomes..... when I lose, how much is the most I can lose, which in turn, doesn't takeout my entire profits from prior trades . . . . . . . . Aww ,,,, "the million dollar question" . . . . .

if there's a strategy/system out there . . . . that can give me 99% chance I'll make 2 - 3 ticks profit each day on the ES . . . . then I'm dieing to know ? ? ? ?

Please don't take offense at my reply to your post.

In my humble opinion; for short-term intraday trading the following parameters have to be present to give one a chance at long-term profitability.

1) Execution

Can you execute consistently at your tested entry/exit with slippage that you account for.

2) Edge

Do you have one? Ways to test this are the simple avg. profit divided by avg. loser or 'profit factor' over time.

3) Winning %

Does your psychology require a high winning % with a lower r:r or can you handle a lower winning % with a higher r:r

Only you can make this decision.

4) How long can you trade intraday consistently

Let's face it; as we get older we tend to not want to sit in front of the market for 7 hours a day; define what you are and are NOT willing to do for trading hours and stick with it.

5) Risk per trade

After doing intraday trading for more than 25+years I have come to the conclusion that for long-term success, for bigger accounts one should NOT risk more than 1% per trade. Have a monthly $$$$ goal (vs roi% or ticks/pts) and hit it consistently.

For small accounts one can risk up to 2.25% per trade and as your account grows gradually and consistently reduce your risk per trade down to 1%.

Honestly, if you are trading a LIQUID instrument--within 18-24 months you will be trading your maximum size (if consistent). At that point you can take your monthly cash flow and begin to diversify.

6) 2 pts per day

This is actually NOT relevant. As I have written if you can keep your dd's reasonable and your method has an edge over time, after 12-18 months you will be able to trade as large as you are comfortable with and then take this 'monthly cash overflow' {after expenses} and either save/invest/diversify it.

Good trading y'all!

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 dutchbookmaker 
NYC
 
 
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A certain amount a day is just being stuck in a wage/salary type mentality IMO. Going to work today I make X an hour and at the end of the week I get a check for Y so I can afford Z on a monthly basis.
Consider if you made 4 points today, didn't trade at all tomorrow you would be averaging 2 points a day.
A hard number pulled out of thin air like this is going to make you put on more bad trades than you would otherwise and not juice good ones. It is just a bad way to approach things. Like in the above you probably would have capped off before even making 4 points with this mindset.
Not to mention 2 points per car is absolutely crushing. Maybe you can get on a streak of winners at this rate but you can't build an atm machine that will do this forever. The OP and being done by 10am is what Edison is referring to I believe in my sig quote.

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  #33 (permalink)
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"if there's a strategy/system out there . . . . that can give me 99% chance I'll make 2 - 3 ticks profit each day on the ES . . . . then I'm dieing to know ? ? ? ?"

I wouldn't even bother going down the route of 2-3 ticks profit per day. Let's say you do 3 trades

1 - lose 3 ticks
2 - gain 3 ticks
3 - gain 3 ticks

Now you are up 3 ticks or $37.50 per contract. You are also most likely paying $12 in commissions per contract. Unless you are paying ultra low commissions, the commissions will kill you.

The other flaw here is the seeking of a ‘system’. There is no system. Forget about looking for a system, it doesn’t exist.
Day trading is a sport. It is not a mental endeavor to find a perfect mathematical system that can be applied blindly. It requires experience which is what you will not get if you are always seeking a system.

It is about swinging the bat before the bowler has let go of the ball.

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 thatguy 
New Brunswick, NJ
 
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DionysusToast View Post
It is about swinging the bat before the bowler has let go of the ball.

Not sure what this means and the point you are trying to make? Swinging early means you will still miss completely. (Besides looking a bit silly swinging in fresh air while the bowler still have the ball.)

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  #35 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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DionysusToast View Post
"...
Day trading is a sport. It is not a mental endeavor to find a perfect mathematical system that can be applied blindly. It requires experience which is what you will not get if you are always seeking a system.

It is about swinging the bat before the bowler has let go of the ball.

I like your definition. The one who is faster to click the mouse will win. So moral of this story, search for a good mouse not a system or indicators if you want to win at this game

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  #36 (permalink)
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Funny guys.

It's pretty simple. There is no system. It's about you and your ability to read the market and get in without requiring loads of confirmation.

In soccer, when a player takes a penalty kick, the goalkeeper tries to make an educated guess on which way the ball will be kicked. The goalkeeper dives in that direction based on how he sees the shooter line up. He probably also studies how his opponents take penalties too.

The outcome of diving right as the guy is about to kick the ball is that the goalkeeper misses some and saves others. The outcome of waiting for the guy to kick the ball is that you don't save any.

Like I say - it's a sport.

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farmer55
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"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser

I can not leave false theology go un answered. The first line is from the Bible, but the second sentence is a total misunderstanding of the verse. In religious circles it is called "the name it and claim it gospel" which is totally unbiblical. Just because you have some faith or even great faith, means absolutely nothing if that faith is in the wrong area.

You may have all the faith in the world that you are going to be successful at trading, but if your way of trading doesn't work, it doesn't matter how much faith you have. In the end your faith is misplaced. You need to place it in a winning way of trading.

What if I said it this way: After all loses where my winners cancel out every lose, there are still 10-15 winners left each day in each market. So I say to myslf; today I will have 20 - 30 chances at 20 -30 winners. Then I say to myself: Can I just take 2 of those? I think I can. And can I stop when I have those 2? I think I can. Now I have something that I can have FAITH in.

There were a couple of dozen opportunities today. All I need is two. I have faith in the way I trade.

Biblically speaking, it doesn't matter if you have little or large faith. It just matters that the faith you have, is in the right Person.

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  #38 (permalink)
 jmejedi 
Lilburn, GA
 
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touche !





researcher247 View Post
Please don't take offense at my reply to your post.

In my humble opinion; for short-term intraday trading the following parameters have to be present to give one a chance at long-term profitability.

1) Execution

Can you execute consistently at your tested entry/exit with slippage that you account for.

2) Edge

Do you have one? Ways to test this are the simple avg. profit divided by avg. loser or 'profit factor' over time.

3) Winning %

Does your psychology require a high winning % with a lower r:r or can you handle a lower winning % with a higher r:r

Only you can make this decision.

4) How long can you trade intraday consistently

Let's face it; as we get older we tend to not want to sit in front of the market for 7 hours a day; define what you are and are NOT willing to do for trading hours and stick with it.

5) Risk per trade

After doing intraday trading for more than 25+years I have come to the conclusion that for long-term success, for bigger accounts one should NOT risk more than 1% per trade. Have a monthly $$$$ goal (vs roi% or ticks/pts) and hit it consistently.

For small accounts one can risk up to 2.25% per trade and as your account grows gradually and consistently reduce your risk per trade down to 1%.

Honestly, if you are trading a LIQUID instrument--within 18-24 months you will be trading your maximum size (if consistent). At that point you can take your monthly cash flow and begin to diversify.

6) 2 pts per day

This is actually NOT relevant. As I have written if you can keep your dd's reasonable and your method has an edge over time, after 12-18 months you will be able to trade as large as you are comfortable with and then take this 'monthly cash overflow' {after expenses} and either save/invest/diversify it.

Good trading y'all!


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 jmejedi 
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Touche !!





DionysusToast View Post
"if there's a strategy/system out there . . . . that can give me 99% chance I'll make 2 - 3 ticks profit each day on the ES . . . . then I'm dieing to know ? ? ? ?"

I wouldn't even bother going down the route of 2-3 ticks profit per day. Let's say you do 3 trades

1 - lose 3 ticks
2 - gain 3 ticks
3 - gain 3 ticks

Now you are up 3 ticks or $37.50 per contract. You are also most likely paying $12 in commissions per contract. Unless you are paying ultra low commissions, the commissions will kill you.

The other flaw here is the seeking of a ‘system’. There is no system. Forget about looking for a system, it doesn’t exist.
Day trading is a sport. It is not a mental endeavor to find a perfect mathematical system that can be applied blindly. It requires experience which is what you will not get if you are always seeking a system.

It is about swinging the bat before the bowler has let go of the ball.


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  #40 (permalink)
 jmejedi 
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"trendisyourfriend" , "DionysusToast" , & "farmer55"



. . . . . . .


touche !

touche !!

&

Touche !!!

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  #41 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
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Ya'll are going about this the wrong way. You should encourage our enthusiastic friend to give it a Go!

I have found that nothing flattens a learning curve like having the market separate a trader from his account.

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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farmer55
Minneapolis+ MN / USA
 
 
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ThatmanfromTexas

Read a quote many years ago from a guy from Texas.

A grandson was proudly telling his Grandfather what his chosen career was going to be.
"Grandpa, I'm going to be a commodity trader" Grandfather replies " Of all the way to lose money, why would you choose the fastest?"

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  #43 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
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I know I'm new to the ES, having only sim traded for about 2 months now, but looking at my rules, my goal is to get 3-4 ticks per trade. If I'm paying $4 per r/t and making 2-4 trades a day on the ES alone, my profit on 1 contract over 2 trades is $67 and on 4 trades is $134, which would be almost 7 ticks. If I get 2 points on the ES per contract, I'm out for the day. No need to be greedy.

Is 2 points do-able? Yes. Possible, most likely. Repeatable? Not likely. My goal is 1-2 points per day on the ES. I've upped the contracts twice and as soon as the trade went in the money I got out of it. Pressure was pretty big, even for a sim trade. Hopefully, my system is repeatable and has a solid foundation. From comments received, it is a good system i have.

Right now I am in sim mode, so there is definitely alot less pressure than trading live but through continued application of rules and positive sim results like today, I hope to reduce pressure as much as possible.

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  #44 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
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tammyd549 View Post
Ok, I'm starting this thread in off topic because I'm asking this more for fun than really serious but, who here thinks it's either "easy" or "realistic" to squeeze 2 points per day from the ES (or equivalent from whatever market you are trading?)

If I could dream, I would love to be able to trade 10 contracts and pull 2 points per day away and be done by 10am each day.....

Or better yet, trade 20 contracts and only have to pick up 1 point.... Or 40 contracts and pull 1/2 point....

Whatdy'all think? Can it be done ? Am I a crazy newb?

2 points/day on the ES is very possible for a well seasoned trader. The ES is also the market of choice for some of the world's best traders because of the liquidity, etc. and can be an absolute meat grinder for newer traders. It's notorious for trapping newbies in a position and running their stops. Just know when intra-day trading the ES, you're competing against the best.

I don't want to discourage anyone from trading a particular market but intraday trading the ES can be very challenging even though it appears subdued. Many newer traders suffer the death of a thousand cuts with constant stop outs. There are other markets that one can start out with and still learn to make $100/contract/day. But as always, you need to find the market that best suits your trading style with respect to your risk tolerance, etc.

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  #45 (permalink)
 samiotis 
Gilroy california USA
 
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eminitrader View Post
Is anyone here able to get 2 points a day in Sim or Live?


Yes 8 ticks NQ live......one's a day or twice.

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nick05
Saint Louis, USA
 
 
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tammyd549 View Post
Ok, I'm starting this thread in off topic because I'm asking this more for fun than really serious but, who here thinks it's either "easy" or "realistic" to squeeze 2 points per day from the ES (or equivalent from whatever market you are trading?)

If I could dream, I would love to be able to trade 10 contracts and pull 2 points per day away and be done by 10am each day.....

Or better yet, trade 20 contracts and only have to pick up 1 point.... Or 40 contracts and pull 1/2 point....

Whatdy'all think? Can it be done ? Am I a crazy newb?


Actually depending on your system the 6E market trends a lot better and it is the same point value. Hope that helps.

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  #47 (permalink)
pinkieman
Los Angeles
 
 
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Hello,

I trade one setup only, and it usually happens 1-4 times a day on the ES. My minimum expectancy for my one setup is 12 ticks, so I try my hardest to hang in there for my target. Lately I've settled into a bad habit of scaling out after +4 / +5 / +6, depending on my mood. Sure enough though, it almost always reaches target, so I'm working on kicking the habit.

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 dougl1965 
OFallon, MO
 
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samiotis,

what strategy do you use on NQ live?

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  #49 (permalink)
 RM99 
Austin, TX
 
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Of course it's possible.

Is it probable? That depends on a number of considerations. Education and Training, experience, capitalization, discipline....etc.

The other thing I've noticed is how awful a lot of traders are at somewhat obscure accounting concepts.

The concept that you would ever quote a return rate, without a drawdown seems foolish to me.

The concept that you would ever quote a return rate, without specifying "over given period of x" is also a headshaker.

A strategy that loses 100 "points" in it's first 50 trading days, then profits 500 points over the next 50 trading days and then loses another 100 points in the final 50 trading days yields a 2 point/day average.

Would it be a worthy trading system? Probably not. Unless you're willing and capable of drawing down 100 points worth of capital.

Drawdown is quite frankly, the most misunderstood and applied accounting principle in trading.

What if I told you that a strategy that yields 2 points a day, but has a full contract's worth of drawdown, will yield less money in even a few weeks than a strategy that yields .25 points a day, but has half the drawdown?

Why? Compounding.

Consistency (in terms of low equity volitility and drawdown) is just as important, if not more important than raw yield.

There are sooo many things to discuss here.

If you're backtesting a system that yields "2 points/day" in simulation, but it takes 100 trades a day to do so, chances are, you're going to see a very large variance from simulation results to live results.

Others have covered one of the largest reasons why and that's "traps" employed by larger traders.

However, if you're able to make larger moves, and withstand bigger dips and climbs....then you start to eliminate yourself of a victim of both platform inconsistency, fill order que issues, slippage, commission, etc.

But alas, thus we see the clever and inherently self correcting feature of nature once again. Only larger accounts can weather such storms and create such consistency.

So again, i say....is it possible? Sure. Is it feasible? Maybe. Is it likely? No.

Would it be better than a system that's less ambitious and had less volitility (thus allowing to maximize compounding) Probably not.


That shouldn't be discouraging though, just because something is difficult doesn't mean it's foolish to pursue. Wisdom is knowing the difference between challenges and impossibilities.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 rtrade 
Paradise, USA
 
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RM99 View Post
Of course it's possible...

So again, i say....is it possible? Sure. Is it feasible? Maybe. Is it likely? No.

RM99, I'm a bit confused. On one hand your saying, "Of course it's possible..." and on the other you are saying, "Is it likely? No."

Which is it?

Remember the original post is from a single working mother, I believe...

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #51 (permalink)
 RM99 
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rtrade View Post
RM99, I'm a bit confused. On one hand your saying, "Of course it's possible..." and on the other you are saying, "Is it likely? No."

Which is it?

Remember the original post is from a single working mother, I believe...

Is it possible to win the lottery? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Like I said, it's not that difficult to develop a strategy that returns an average of 2% a day. But to do so, consistently with no drawdown is another matter.

So, when you examine the problem further, you see, that even if you "average" 2 points/day once you throw drawdown into the equation, it greatly reduces the % because you must carry drawdown reserve.

So if you're averaging 2 points a day and you have a maximum drawdown of one contract value (a pretty reasonable drawdown)....then your 2 points becomes 1% daily ($100/$10k). $10k because you have a $5k contract margin and $5k drawdown reserve.

So, 1% a day.

Compounded daily, that's 1227% annually. Do you know a lot of traders who can take their account from $10k to $122k in a year?

Not only that, but in order to yield 1% daily, (with the drawdown discussed) you'd have to be able to earn more than 2 points because you have to overcome slippage and commissions.

So I say again, is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No. I would say it's not common.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 Private Banker 
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RM99 View Post
Is it possible to win the lottery? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Like I said, it's not that difficult to develop a strategy that returns an average of 2% a day. But to do so, consistently with no drawdown is another matter.

So, when you examine the problem further, you see, that even if you "average" 2 points/day once you throw drawdown into the equation, it greatly reduces the % because you must carry drawdown reserve.

So if you're averaging 2 points a day and you have a maximum drawdown of one contract value (a pretty reasonable drawdown)....then your 2 points becomes 1% daily ($100/$10k). $10k because you have a $5k contract margin and $5k drawdown reserve.

So, 1% a day.

Compounded daily, that's 1227% annually. Do you know a lot of traders who can take their account from $10k to $122k in a year?

Not only that, but in order to yield 1% daily, (with the drawdown discussed) you'd have to be able to earn more than 2 points because you have to overcome slippage and commissions.

So I say again, is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No. I would say it's not common.

It depends on who you are referring to. A new trader, I would agree with what you've said here. But for an experienced trader, 2 ES point per day is absolutely, definitely, 100% possible. An experienced trader will likely look to gain more per day so that his/her losses are far outweighed by their gains. It obviously comes down to simple number averages. You can't go in and make 2 points and close up shop every day. You will have losing days, that's just how it works. But if you have a good R:R and a high(er) winning percentage, you will exceed 2 points per day on average. 2 points in ES is one simple little move. If we were talking about 6 points per day in ES, then I would say that is a little more difficult. The draw to trading the ES for professional traders is mainly by necessity as no other markets provide the liquidity like ES does (except bonds). I can have a fill of 300 contracts no problem in ES where other markets would provide me with horrible slippage. So, the range doesn't need to be that big to make it worth while.

The thing to remember with futures trading is it's different than traditional stock investments. The leverage is enormous and most traders I know, including myself, take their weekly and/or monthly profits out of their accounts. This doesn't include swing trading by the way. I'm talking about your day-to-day trading account. So the idea of calculating 1,000% annual return doesn't really make sense. It's a different ball game here. We aren't running a hedge fund here. What do you think the guys in the pits are making? I know a guy who made a few million dollars in one week trading Crude which was out of the ordinary for him but it happens. Do you think he sits down and tries to figure out what his annual percentage returns are? I think many would be surprised by the amount of money some traders are making out there.

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  #53 (permalink)
 RM99 
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Private Banker View Post
It depends on who you are referring to. A new trader, I would agree with what you've said here. But for an experienced trader, 2 ES point per day is absolutely, definitely, 100% possible. An experienced trader will likely look to gain more per day so that his/her losses are far outweighed by their gains. It obviously comes down to simple number averages. You can't go in and make 2 points and close up shop every day. You will have losing days, that's just how it works. But if you have a good R:R and a high(er) winning percentage, you will exceed 2 points per day on average. 2 points in ES is one simple little move. If we were talking about 6 points per day in ES, then I would say that is a little more difficult. The draw to trading the ES for professional traders is mainly by necessity as no other markets provide the liquidity like ES does (except bonds). I can have a fill of 300 contracts no problem in ES where other markets would provide me with horrible slippage. So, the range doesn't need to be that big to make it worth while.

The thing to remember with futures trading is it's different than traditional stock investments. The leverage is enormous and most traders I know, including myself, take their weekly and/or monthly profits out of their accounts. This doesn't include swing trading by the way. I'm talking about your day-to-day trading account. So the idea of calculating 1,000% annual return doesn't really make sense. It's a different ball game here. We aren't running a hedge fund here. What do you think the guys in the pits are making? I know a guy who made a few million dollars in one week trading Crude which was out of the ordinary for him but it happens. Do you think he sits down and tries to figure out what his annual percentage returns are? I think many would be surprised by the amount of money some traders are making out there.

Again, quoting any return without a time period or a drawdown is pretty misleading.

Every trader has positive trades outside of a couple standard deviations.

What are the results over the course of an entire year? What is the drawdown associated with those results.

When you combine those two issues, you'll quickly realize that chasing 2 points a day, although possible, is very difficult without a sizeable account.

Again, developing a strategy that makes money is very easy. Developing a strategy that makes A LOT of money isn't all that difficult. Doing EITHER with a low drawdown level becomes increasingly difficult, with every increment of overall profit.

So when someone says "x points" or "x ticks" per day, it's misleading. How big of an account does it take to execute that?

A $100k account that yields 10 ticks a day in oil is .1%/day. Compared to a $10k account that yields 10 ticks a day which is a 1%/day yield.

The difficulty between those two is pretty significant.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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  #54 (permalink)
 RM99 
Austin, TX
 
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What this thread is really about, fundamentally, is strategy development and the challenges associated with it. (or in the frame of the original question....what's "possible" or feasible).

Strategy development is like a 4 sided rubix pyramid.

Rate of Return
Time Period of Return
Drawdown
Complexity/Ease of execution (and challenges associated).

Solving one side or optimizing it, might have adverse effects on the other side(s).

The "holy grail" (I dislike that term btw) would be a strategy that had massive returns, over a LONG trading period, with zero drawdown and was very easy to execute (i.e. very simple, with very little complexities like limit orders, contract rollover dates, inter vs intra day trading, etc).

Most strategy developers can take just about ANY indicator or combination and craft a "profitable" strategy. But at what costs? What use is it to net $30k in profits over 6 months, if your strategy drawsdown twice that amount? What use is a strategy that cherry picks an optimal period in the market where it returns high yields, but does marginal or even negatively over longer time periods?

What you find is that it's insanely difficult to solve all four parameters.

I can't tell you how many strategies I've developed that potentially made money, but had unacceptible drawdown or did well over a certain time period, but failed during other timeframes or became impossibly complex to execute, etc.

Drawdown may be the most prolific aspect, because it not only affects the "true" rate of return (with respect to account size required) but also significantly affects the way you're able to compound through increasing positionsizes.

Most traders fail to recognize that a strategy that has half the return, but half the drawdown will actually yield considerably MORE profit once compounding is considered.

So when someone quotes "averaging 10 ticks a day" that's not a fair, transparent representation of how well the strategy actually compares. Because the account size to execute that, has a huge impact on what the real rate of return is.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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  #55 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
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RM99 View Post
Again, quoting any return without a time period or a drawdown is pretty misleading.

Every trader has positive trades outside of a couple standard deviations.

What are the results over the course of an entire year? What is the drawdown associated with those results.

When you combine those two issues, you'll quickly realize that chasing 2 points a day, although possible, is very difficult without a sizeable account.

Again, developing a strategy that makes money is very easy. Developing a strategy that makes A LOT of money isn't all that difficult. Doing EITHER with a low drawdown level becomes increasingly difficult, with every increment of overall profit.

So when someone says "x points" or "x ticks" per day, it's misleading. How big of an account does it take to execute that?

A $100k account that yields 10 ticks a day in oil is .1%/day. Compared to a $10k account that yields 10 ticks a day which is a 1%/day yield.

The difficulty between those two is pretty significant.

I always crack up at these types of debates. You're entitled to your own opinion and I'm not here to try and change your thoughts on this. The old "does anyone really make money trading argument".

From what I've experienced and witnessed throughout my career as a PM managing OPM as well as managing my own money and constantly speaking with other friend traders that this is 100% possible over a long period of time (years). Will you have a winning day every day? No. It comes down to having larger winning days to losing days. Sure account size plays a factor but I don't think that was a part of the original question to this thread. So I guess we have differing opinions which is fine.

Best of luck to you.
PB

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 RM99 
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I always crack up at these types of debates. You're entitled to your own opinion and I'm not here to try and change your thoughts on this. The old "does anyone really make money trading argument".

From what I've experienced and witnessed throughout my career as a PM managing OPM as well as managing my own money and constantly speaking with other friend traders that this is 100% possible over a long period of time (years). Will you have a winning day every day? No. It comes down to having larger winning days to losing days. Sure account size plays a factor but I don't think that was a part of the original question to this thread. So I guess we have differing opinions which is fine.

Best of luck to you.
PB

If you read my posts, I never said it was impossible. I'm simply trying to convey that possible <> likely or easy.

Is it possible for a 5'9" kid from South Dakota to make the NBA? Sure. Is it more likely for a 6'10 kid from North Carolina? Absolutely.

Telling someone...."oh sure, I know lots of guys who make more money than that" is misleading. If you read my original post, it has to be qualified with a number of things...experience...capitalization(account size), what type of risks are they undergoing and how long of a period are we talking about.

Averaging 2 points/day for 6 months is a horse of a different color compared to averaging 2 points a day for 3 years.

So my point was that it's pretty useless to discuss what's possible and impossible. It's more relevant and cogent to discuss what's likely and unlikely, what's difficult and what's easy.

Is it possible for a team of Jamaicans to win a title in bobsledding? Sure. Would I bet on it? No.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 liquidcci 
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I find ES hard to make money on because of tight range. The liquidity is fantastic and I have always wanted to develop a strategy for the ES because the scale potential is awesome. But looks to me at least from a day trade perspective would have to be a scalping strategy which I have never tried to develop. Scalpers can do quite well but better have a good grip on what commissions will do to you or will get eaten alive. You might also consider CL if you want something with big range that you don't have to scalp.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Private Banker 
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RM99 View Post
If you read my posts, I never said it was impossible. I'm simply trying to convey that possible <> likely or easy.

Is it possible for a 5'9" kid from South Dakota to make the NBA? Sure. Is it more likely for a 6'10 kid from North Carolina? Absolutely.

Telling someone...."oh sure, I know lots of guys who make more money than that" is misleading. If you read my original post, it has to be qualified with a number of things...experience...capitalization(account size), what type of risks are they undergoing and how long of a period are we talking about.

Averaging 2 points/day for 6 months is a horse of a different color compared to averaging 2 points a day for 3 years.

So my point was that it's pretty useless to discuss what's possible and impossible. It's more relevant and cogent to discuss what's likely and unlikely, what's difficult and what's easy.

Is it possible for a team of Jamaicans to win a title in bobsledding? Sure. Would I bet on it? No.

This is silly. I've got nothing against your opinions and apologize for misinterpreting what you've previously said. My comments were purely anecdotal with reference to professional traders. You are entitled to whatever it is your thoughts are. I just wanted to add a different point of view on this. Besides, I'm not one for arguing with people I don't know on the internet, lol!

Have a good one.

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 Family Trader 
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RM99 View Post
Averaging 2 points/day for 6 months is a horse of a different color compared to averaging 2 points a day for 3 years.

With due respect...NO absolutely not....if the trader has succeeded in averaging 2 points per day for 6 months it is, in my opinion, reasonable to realize a similar result over a 3 year period provided the strategy and trade management in robust enough to counter any significant behavioral changes in the ES market.

If the trader was successful over the 6 month period to realize those results it has to be reasonable to assume the trader has good discipline and controls...and good luck to them!!

Trader

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 RM99 
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This is silly. I've got nothing against your opinions and apologize for misinterpreting what you've previously said. My comments were purely anecdotal with reference to professional traders. You are entitled to whatever it is your thoughts are. I just wanted to add a different point of view on this. Besides, I'm not one for arguing with people I don't know on the internet, lol!

Have a good one.

You're right. I give up. It's possible. Nothing more necessary or relevant.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 RM99 
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Family Trader View Post
With due respect...NO absolutely not....if the trader has succeeded in averaging 2 points per day for 6 months it is, in my opinion, reasonable to realize a similar result over a 3 year period provided the strategy and trade management in robust enough to counter any significant behavioral changes in the ES market.

If the trader was successful over the 6 month period to realize those results it has to be reasonable to assume the trader has good discipline and controls...and good luck to them!!

Trader

Really? So let's go down this slippery slope.

Would 5 months translate to a 3 year equivalent? What about 4 months? 3 months? How about 2 weeks? What about 1 day?

If someone called you up and said...hey, I've got a guy who can invest your money and earn 20% a day! What sort of track record or history would you need to believe he/she could do that going forward for say a year?

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 TheSeeker 
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RM99 View Post
Really? So let's go down this slippery slope.

Would 5 months translate to a 3 year equivalent? What about 4 months? 3 months? How about 2 weeks? What about 1 day?

If someone called you up and said...hey, I've got a guy who can invest your money and earn 20% a day! What sort of track record or history would you need to believe he/she could do that going forward for say a year?



Well, do YOU have the answer ? Is there an objective answer to this question ? Textbooks in statistics may give some answers but if we're talking about manual/discretionary trading, it's questionable whether employing elaborate statistic analysis is helpful in this context at all.

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  #63 (permalink)
 RM99 
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Well, do YOU have the answer ? Is there an objective answer to this question ? Textbooks in statistics may give some answers but if we're talking about manual/discretionary trading, it's questionable whether employing elaborate statistic analysis is helpful in this context at all.

I gave you my answer. There's no "threshold" but only a trend.

The larger the timeframe referenced for performance, the greater correlation and confidence you can have employing that same method/system in the future.

The number of traders who can repeat performance over several years vs several months is quite different.

Even with a "discretionary" style....6 months of performance is not enough to prove conclusively that you've been successful under all the varying conditions the market has to bear.

Like I said, there's no magic number or timeline, just that greater timeframe indicates greater probability of being repeatable and consistent.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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 bizman70 
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if its 2 points or 10 points - its relevent to the time frame and swing factor that the trading strategy employes - i would suggest working on the various strtegies being presented ( if people would be open to them ) and trying to make them a possibility for everyone, maybe even automate them , lets woek together for the benafit of everyone instead of arguing with everyone for the benafit of one

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 zer0 
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Of course it's possible, but your aim is off. You should be looking to take what the market offers you in the time frame of interest. That could be more or less than 2 points, depending on a variety of factors. You need to start by asking the right questions; specifically 'how' not 'if'.

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Howard Roark
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Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. He trades 20-30 contracts. That's 30K $ per month gross. I think he said he had 2 or 3 losing days last year.

Blew my mind, to be honest.

I've considered doing something similar myself:

1) Take 1-2,0 points with maximum leverage

2) Trade the rest of the day with 20% of maximum size.

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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. He trades 20-30 contracts. That's 30K $ per month gross. I think he said he had 2 or 3 losing days last year.

Blew my mind, to be honest.

I've considered doing something similar myself:

1) Take 1-2,0 points with maximum leverage

2) Trade the rest of the day with 20% of maximum size.

It sounds like the guy you spoke to is among the very top traders.


Do you have a good track record, e.g. a good expectancy and consistency that allow you to trade full size similar to the manner you aspire?

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Howard Roark
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xplorer View Post
It sounds like the guy you spoke to is among the very top traders.

Well - what he does sure seems to work for him.


xplorer View Post
Do you have a good track record, e.g. a good expectancy and consistency that allow you to trade full size similar to the manner you aspire?

I've been following the ES on/off for the last 10 years. Some of it trading it/following it full-time.

I've tried building a model which captures a bigger piece of the daily swings than just 1,0 point, but in actual trading it so far - I have mixed results. That is - roughly breakeven. And this is day trading the afternoon session only as I have a full time job still. I often find that I may even be correct in predicting price movement, but that the micro aspect, i.e., smaller swings stops me out before resuming my initial direction.

So, I'm still testing things and smoothing things out while keeping risk/contracts to a minimum.

To get back to your question:

80 % of my trades for the last two months have a maximum favourable excursion of 1,5 points or more.

86 % of my trades for the last two months have a maximum favourable excursion of 1,0 points or more.

Sadly, quite a few of these have instead turned into losses or BE/+0,25 point profit trades. My entries tend to be good, but I need to get better at my exits. Either decide to hold my trades (AND INITIAL STOP) for the desired target allowing adverse movement or start banking smaller profits (or just 1,0 point and call it a day) instead.

Based on this and inspiration from that other trader I have indeed considered if I should instead be content with less for the time being.

What do you think?

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  #69 (permalink)
 cory 
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Howard Roark View Post
Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. ....

yeah, market moves 1 point every day so you don't have to worry about: not able to trade, capturing the whole move or ATR.

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Howard Roark
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yeah, market moves 1 point every day so you don't have to worry about: not able to trade, capturing the whole move or ATR.

Care to elaborate?

Not sure if you were being sarcastic or not.

Is your approach to ES (I see you trade it) to only take a small profit each and every day?

Thanks.

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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
Based on this and inspiration from that other trader I have indeed considered if I should instead be content with less for the time being.

What do you think?

I remember seeing the question of "is it reasonable to make an average of x per day?" (replace x with 1-10 ticks or 30, 50,100 USD or more) a lot in trading.

I see this query as well meaning but ultimately missing the point that, once a trader has been able to achieve a positive result (i.e. a positive expectancy) on, say, 200 live trades or more, they will have reached profitable consistency, by which point they can do whatever they want.

Of course I'm exaggerating and generalizing, but the point for me is, I find it difficult to say "I haven't been able to average X a day, but Y seems more reasonable" (where Y<X) if consistency has not been achieved in the first place.


Not sure whether MFE alone can help identify whether you have an edge but 'roughly breakeven' is usually not bad and, depending on trading style, something that can be built upon.

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 snax 
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Howard Roark View Post
Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. He trades 20-30 contracts. That's 30K $ per month gross. I think he said he had 2 or 3 losing days last year.

Blew my mind, to be honest.

I've considered doing something similar myself:

1) Take 1-2,0 points with maximum leverage

2) Trade the rest of the day with 20% of maximum size.

For demonstration purposes, consider a successful trader (or retired person who's done well for themselves).

consider a $400K account (big but not unheard of in any sense), trading the /ES at $12.50/tick:

Using the formula: Maximum Account Risk (in dollars) / (Trade Risk (in ticks) x Tick Value) = Position Size

$1000 / (4 * 12.50) = 20 contracts per trade risks 0.0025% of the account on any single trade
$2000 / (4 * 12.50) = 40 contracts per trade risks 0.0050%

He/She would need to trade 80 contracts per trade to even risk 0.01% at this level

If they are making $300K+/year using this strategy and it is consistent, I would be scaling up further as liquidity allows or chopping up the trades into sensible liquid blocks. I would also increase the stop size, I would also be really having fun with this

So I think at least from a risk-per-trade standpoint those numbers seem very realistic. EDIT: I didn't mention, I used 4-tick stops in those scenarios which in the /ES will most likely lead to a lot of pain, but imagining 8-tick stops which is what I currently use, then it is more reasonble from both risk AND volatility standpoint. (some will argue this is still too narrow and that opinion is just as valid) I can't speak from a liquidity/execution/fills standpoint as I don't have experience with using this many contracts

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 cory 
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Howard Roark View Post
Care to elaborate?

..

Thanks.

ES and its long @$$ queue? no thank! this is NQ illustrations.
pic1) lets say on 35t chart you look left at beginning of the day 4/12 (black vertical line) and identify a potential S/R level (blue line)
pic2) on 10t blue line seems to turn into support level, would you say there is a 1P in there.
pic 3) blue line seems to into resistance, would you say there is 1P trade in there

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 MiniP 
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like others have mentioned, the s/l would be hard to deal with then getting 1 pt.
I personally trade the ES with a 4-5 pt t/p and a 10 pt s/l and in the process of seeing if moving that s/l to 8 pts is better but that a different conversation entirely. I believe that you need to give the market time to move and sometimes you will get bit with that large s/l but its few and far between. Trading max leverage with a goal of 1 pt would be horrible in my view, If you do use a large s/l with such a small profit you will be diffing your self out of the hole a lot. unless your track record with this is in the percentages 80+ then i wouldn't personally trade like that. I would be more concerned with your friends entry signal then hits profit.


-P

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Howard Roark
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cory View Post
ES and its long @$$ queue? no thank! this is NQ illustrations.
pic1) lets say on 35t chart you look left at beginning of the day 4/12 (black vertical line) and identify a potential S/R level (blue line)
pic2) on 10t blue line seems to turn into support level, would you say there is a 1P in there.
pic 3) blue line seems to into resistance, would you say there is 1P trade in there

Hi, Cory,

I didn't quite follow you. Your profile say your favorite futures is ES.

@$$ queue?

I'm filled instantly trading ES and 'never' have slippage. My maximum size have been 10 contracts though. It probably is different trading 50, but from what I hear - it usually isn't a big deal.

Picture below shows swings of 2,0 points or more. Plenty of opportunity to make 1,0 point on most days in the ES.


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Howard Roark
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xplorer View Post
I remember seeing the question of "is it reasonable to make an average of x per day?" (replace x with 1-10 ticks or 30, 50,100 USD or more) a lot in trading.

I see this query as well meaning but ultimately missing the point that, once a trader has been able to achieve a positive result (i.e. a positive expectancy) on, say, 200 live trades or more, they will have reached profitable consistency, by which point they can do whatever they want.

Of course I'm exaggerating and generalizing, but the point for me is, I find it difficult to say "I haven't been able to average X a day, but Y seems more reasonable" (where Y<X) if consistency has not been achieved in the first place.

Well, I'm not sure I can say I agree with that.

Surely it's easier to average 1,0 ES points per day than say taking 5,0 or 10,0 points or say the full offer of the market?

I think it's easier to be consistent taking 1,0 point than taking the full offer each and every day.

Thoughts?

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  #77 (permalink)
 cory 
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Howard Roark View Post
Hi, Cory,
.... Your profile say your favorite futures is ES.

...

thank for pointing that out, now it read NQ.

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Howard Roark
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thank for pointing that out, now it read NQ.

I see that now.

I know a lot of people seem to favour NQ over ES, but I've followed ES for so long now that I'm 'married' to it.

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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
Well, I'm not sure I can say I agree with that.

Surely it's easier to average 1,0 ES points per day than say taking 5,0 or 10,0 points or say the full offer of the market?

I think it's easier to be consistent taking 1,0 point than taking the full offer each and every day.

Thoughts?

It sounds like I did not explain myself.

Of course, generally speaking, it is easier to shoot for fewer ticks than shoot for more.


So when you say what you said in the quote above, you and I are in agreement.


The question is about consistency.


Just for argument's sake, do you think you would be able to average 1 tick profit a day on ES?

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Howard Roark
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Just for argument's sake, do you think you would be able to average 1 tick profit a day on ES?

Yes.

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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
Yes.

Have you done it yet?

If not, why not?


Also, if not, what would it take?


By that I mean, how many winning trades Vs. losing trades would it take, to end up averaging 1 tick a day?

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 DavidHP 
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Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. He trades 20-30 contracts. That's 30K $ per month gross. I think he said he had 2 or 3 losing days last year.

Blew my mind, to be honest.

I've considered doing something similar myself:

1) Take 1-2,0 points with maximum leverage

2) Trade the rest of the day with 20% of maximum size.

It is not so much a question of can this be done.
It is a question of can you endure exiting winners and stopping out the losers.

Taking one or two points from the ES seems easy to sim traders.
ES or any other market seldom gives you smooth easy trades.
When you first enter a trade, you must take the opposite side of the market.
That means you are automatically negative if you sold immediately.
If the market moves in your direction you could be quickly profitable but usually only a tick or two.

Before you get 4 ticks of profit, you probably sat through a drawdown of 1 - 6 ticks or more.
If it continues against your trade when do you get out?
If you use 1:1 profit/loss the market will eat your up.

Suppose your first trade is 20 contracts and your target is 1 point ES.
If the trade works you will profit about $900.
BUT if it goes 1 point against you and you get out losing 4 ticks (unlikely you will) your loss will be over $1000.
How many of those in a row can you stand?

You have not indicated you have an edge, so you probably don't have one.
All you can see right now is $$ and how much you can make.
What you should be thinking is how much can you lose.

Without an edge that gives you consistent profits and low drawdowns you will blow the account.

Then what?

I'm attaching a spreadsheet I used a few years back (for other purposes) but you can see how much you can make and how much you can lose.
You can even track your trading with the spreadsheet.

I offer NO SUPPORT or guarantees of it's accuracy so don't depend on it, it is only for illustration purposes.
I also have included a post from early in this thread that pretty much sums it up.
You will be generating profits for your broker but now much for yourself.

Good Luck.
FWIW.



Snoop View Post
This is the problem with most Sim trading - you're first in line in the order book so you get filled much easier than in real life.

As to the question - it is definitely possible to make 2 pt per day consistently, BUT unrealistic. Most days I'll scratch out a gain or a small loss - all the time trying to protect capital. Then a nice trend day comes along and it makes my month. But if you are targeting a specific profit, you're likely to taking yourself out of winners. This is the curse of the unprofitable trader. Same issue with scalping - you train yourself to exit winners, maximize losers and generate some nice commission for your broker.

Points Per Day.xls

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 centaurer 
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Anyone who trades everyday and says they had 2 or 3 losing days in a year (as if they wouldn't know if it is 2 or 3) is obviously full of shit.

That equity curve would look even more ridiculous than Bernie Madoff. This type of activity and the money involved attracts so many psychos and crazy people that it just doesn't matter what anyone else says they can do IMO.

If you want to try to profit 2 points a day from ES then you have to figure it out for yourself and go for it.

My trades personally don't come on such a regular predictable basis.

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xplorer View Post
Have you done it yet?

If not, why not?


Also, if not, what would it take?


By that I mean, how many winning trades Vs. losing trades would it take, to end up averaging 1 tick a day?

I have not.

My approach have always been to take every valid signal as per my back-tested methodology. Typically, this mean a 1,5-3,0 point stop and a profit target between 2,5-10,0 points.

If I were to try this other approach instead - I would want to execute only one trade per day to achieve this.

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Howard Roark
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Anyone who trades everyday and says they had 2 or 3 losing days in a year (as if they wouldn't know if it is 2 or 3) is obviously full of shit.

If that's what you believe - then that's what you believe.

To be correct - it was 5 losing days in 2018.

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 xplorer 
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I have not.

My approach have always been to take every valid signal as per my back-tested methodology. Typically, this mean a 1,5-3,0 point stop and a profit target between 2,5-10,0 points.

If I were to try this other approach instead - I would want to execute only one trade per day to achieve this.

Okay, so (let's not forget, for argument's sake we are aiming to gain 1 tick on average per day) :


- How many ticks are you going for, in that 1 trade per day?

- Are you allowing for losing trades?

- What does your average losing trade look like?

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Howard Roark
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Okay, so (let's not forget, for argument's sake we are aiming to gain 1 tick on average per day) :


- How many ticks are you going for, in that 1 trade per day?

- Are you allowing for losing trades?

- What does your average losing trade look like?

- 1 tick, but I would probably try to enter a B/E + 1 tick stop order when I catch a momentum move.

- No.

- See above.

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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
- 1 tick, but I would probably try to enter a B/E + 1 tick stop order when I catch a momentum move.

- No.

- See above.


You are not allowing for losing trades.


Okay.

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 DavidHP 
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You are not allowing for losing trades.

I want some of what he is smoking.

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ArthurKathleen
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End the day with more than you started with, if you can read the market well you will probably surprise yourself.

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Howard Roark
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You are not allowing for losing trades.


Okay.

The problem with a 1-tick per day/trade approach is that you can't have many losing trades for it to be profitable. You need a high win rate. That or you'll you need a lower win rate, but with your average winner far exceeding your average loser.

If you use a 2,0 point SL - one stop out eradicates your entire prior 8 days of profit.

The guy I spoke to (and assuming he's not full of sh't as some believe) said he would take only one trade per day and that's it. If he lost on that 1st trade - he would carefully assess the market to see what it offered and make a conscious decision if he would risk one more trade or wait until tomorrow. He seemed very disciplined about that.

IMO, if you can't take 1,0 point profit with a very high win rate after years of studying the market and crafting your methodology, better forget about it and do something else.

Personally, I believe it's possible to achieve a very high win rate in trading. The problem with a lot of traders (including me) is that we enter too often and aint' picky enough with our trades.

I don't think I'm interested in going for a 1-point profit per day approach, but I found this old thread and wanted to share what I'd been told by some other guy. Also, for my own, I've wondered if a key to better consistency would be to get better at taking profits as my MFE statistics show that most of my trades are profitable at some point in time.

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 cory 
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Howard Roark View Post
...

IMO, if you can't take 1,0 point profit with a very high win rate after years of studying the market and crafting your methodology, better forget about it and do something else.
....

I like to rephrase it;
, if you can't take 1,0 point profit with a very high win rate in SIM after years of studying the market and crafting your methodology, better to stay in SIM until you figure it out or forget about it and do something else.

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Howard Roark
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cory View Post
I like to rephrase it;
, if you can't take 1,0 point profit with a very high win rate in SIM after years of studying the market and crafting your methodology, better to stay in SIM until you figure it out or forget about it and do something else.

No disagreement there.

Profitability in simulator mode prior to live trading is a prerequisite regardless of your approach, IMO.

There's no need to risk money while still learning.

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 centaurer 
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Howard Roark View Post
If that's what you believe - then that's what you believe.

To be correct - it was 5 losing days in 2018.

Oh 5 days, that is totally different then, must be legit.


Your friend wouldn't even have the little squiggles Bernie had. Monthly equity curve is just a straight line up.

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Howard Roark
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Oh 5 days, that is totally different then, must be legit.

Your friend wouldn't even have the little squiggles Bernie had. Monthly equity curve is just a straight line up.

If that is what you believe - then that is what you believe.

You may not believe that either, but there actually are businesses that generate revenue on a daily basis. Even in the financial markets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-11/virtu-never-loses-well-almost-never-in-quest-to-upend-markets


Quoting 
The consistency with which Virtu earns a profit is almost beyond belief. From 2009 to 2014 it lost money on only one day. (The aberration happened when it missed a special dividend payment for a stock, throwing off its model and causing a seven-figure loss.) In 2014, the last year it disclosed its daily win-loss ratio, Virtu was in the black every day, generating revenue of $723.1 million and net income of $190.1 million.

Your response to this should be fairly predictable.

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