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2 Points per day from ES??


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2 Points per day from ES??

  #81 (permalink)
 
xplorer's Avatar
 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
Yes.

Have you done it yet?

If not, why not?


Also, if not, what would it take?


By that I mean, how many winning trades Vs. losing trades would it take, to end up averaging 1 tick a day?

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  #82 (permalink)
 
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 DavidHP 
Isla Mujeres, MX
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Howard Roark View Post
Old thread, but I spoke to a guy who's been trading full-time for 7 years and his only goal for the day is to make 1 point. After that, he's done. He trades 20-30 contracts. That's 30K $ per month gross. I think he said he had 2 or 3 losing days last year.

Blew my mind, to be honest.

I've considered doing something similar myself:

1) Take 1-2,0 points with maximum leverage

2) Trade the rest of the day with 20% of maximum size.

It is not so much a question of can this be done.
It is a question of can you endure exiting winners and stopping out the losers.

Taking one or two points from the ES seems easy to sim traders.
ES or any other market seldom gives you smooth easy trades.
When you first enter a trade, you must take the opposite side of the market.
That means you are automatically negative if you sold immediately.
If the market moves in your direction you could be quickly profitable but usually only a tick or two.

Before you get 4 ticks of profit, you probably sat through a drawdown of 1 - 6 ticks or more.
If it continues against your trade when do you get out?
If you use 1:1 profit/loss the market will eat your up.

Suppose your first trade is 20 contracts and your target is 1 point ES.
If the trade works you will profit about $900.
BUT if it goes 1 point against you and you get out losing 4 ticks (unlikely you will) your loss will be over $1000.
How many of those in a row can you stand?

You have not indicated you have an edge, so you probably don't have one.
All you can see right now is $$ and how much you can make.
What you should be thinking is how much can you lose.

Without an edge that gives you consistent profits and low drawdowns you will blow the account.

Then what?

I'm attaching a spreadsheet I used a few years back (for other purposes) but you can see how much you can make and how much you can lose.
You can even track your trading with the spreadsheet.

I offer NO SUPPORT or guarantees of it's accuracy so don't depend on it, it is only for illustration purposes.
I also have included a post from early in this thread that pretty much sums it up.
You will be generating profits for your broker but now much for yourself.

Good Luck.
FWIW.



Snoop View Post
This is the problem with most Sim trading - you're first in line in the order book so you get filled much easier than in real life.

As to the question - it is definitely possible to make 2 pt per day consistently, BUT unrealistic. Most days I'll scratch out a gain or a small loss - all the time trying to protect capital. Then a nice trend day comes along and it makes my month. But if you are targeting a specific profit, you're likely to taking yourself out of winners. This is the curse of the unprofitable trader. Same issue with scalping - you train yourself to exit winners, maximize losers and generate some nice commission for your broker.

Points Per Day.xls

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  #83 (permalink)
 centaurer 
south africa
 
Posts: 169 since Dec 2018


Anyone who trades everyday and says they had 2 or 3 losing days in a year (as if they wouldn't know if it is 2 or 3) is obviously full of shit.

That equity curve would look even more ridiculous than Bernie Madoff. This type of activity and the money involved attracts so many psychos and crazy people that it just doesn't matter what anyone else says they can do IMO.

If you want to try to profit 2 points a day from ES then you have to figure it out for yourself and go for it.

My trades personally don't come on such a regular predictable basis.

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  #84 (permalink)
Howard Roark
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xplorer View Post
Have you done it yet?

If not, why not?


Also, if not, what would it take?


By that I mean, how many winning trades Vs. losing trades would it take, to end up averaging 1 tick a day?

I have not.

My approach have always been to take every valid signal as per my back-tested methodology. Typically, this mean a 1,5-3,0 point stop and a profit target between 2,5-10,0 points.

If I were to try this other approach instead - I would want to execute only one trade per day to achieve this.

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  #85 (permalink)
Howard Roark
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centaurer View Post
Anyone who trades everyday and says they had 2 or 3 losing days in a year (as if they wouldn't know if it is 2 or 3) is obviously full of shit.

If that's what you believe - then that's what you believe.

To be correct - it was 5 losing days in 2018.

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  #86 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
I have not.

My approach have always been to take every valid signal as per my back-tested methodology. Typically, this mean a 1,5-3,0 point stop and a profit target between 2,5-10,0 points.

If I were to try this other approach instead - I would want to execute only one trade per day to achieve this.

Okay, so (let's not forget, for argument's sake we are aiming to gain 1 tick on average per day) :


- How many ticks are you going for, in that 1 trade per day?

- Are you allowing for losing trades?

- What does your average losing trade look like?

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  #87 (permalink)
Howard Roark
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xplorer View Post
Okay, so (let's not forget, for argument's sake we are aiming to gain 1 tick on average per day) :


- How many ticks are you going for, in that 1 trade per day?

- Are you allowing for losing trades?

- What does your average losing trade look like?

- 1 tick, but I would probably try to enter a B/E + 1 tick stop order when I catch a momentum move.

- No.

- See above.

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  #88 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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Howard Roark View Post
- 1 tick, but I would probably try to enter a B/E + 1 tick stop order when I catch a momentum move.

- No.

- See above.


You are not allowing for losing trades.


Okay.

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  #89 (permalink)
 
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 DavidHP 
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xplorer View Post
You are not allowing for losing trades.

I want some of what he is smoking.

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
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  #90 (permalink)
ArthurKathleen
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End the day with more than you started with, if you can read the market well you will probably surprise yourself.

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