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VIX and Volatility General Discussion


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VIX and Volatility General Discussion

  #131 (permalink)
 EgoRisk 
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suko View Post
I love this ZH headline:

"We're Going To Need More Cocaine" - Cboe Plans To Launch
24-Hour-A-Day Trading In VIX, SPX Options

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were-going-need-more-cocaine-cboe-extends-vix-
spx-options-trading-24-hours-day

Definitely good for including Asian traders in cboe products. And I'm actually not against the CME running ES and CL 23/7, if it ever came down to that. Weekend risk has always irked me. But no I don't see it happening. Kudos to CBOE for 24/5 tho.

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  #132 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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fivewhy View Post
Definitely good for including Asian traders in cboe products. And I'm actually not against the CME running ES and CL 23/7, if it ever came down to that. Weekend risk has always irked me. But no I don't see it happening. Kudos to CBOE for 24/5 tho.

I think this allows you to get into position at maybe a better price on Monday morning when something big is happening, like last March. Rather than get stuck in a traffic jam at the open.

It used to be that you had to buy UVXY stock in the premarket to do this.

Hopefully there will be liquidity.


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  #133 (permalink)
 
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 Dreadwind 
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Barclays announced a 4:1 reverse split on VXX effective April 23rd at the open.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210409005089/en/Barclays-Bank-PLC-Announces-Reverse-Split-of-the-iPath-%C2%AE-Series-B-SP-500-%C2%AE-VIX-Short-Term-Futures%E2%84%A2-ETNs

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  #134 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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VXX has reverse split to 40 range and now continues on its "predictably crappy" descent.

In a low vol environment, the simple way to trade this is using long put spreads.

Take a look at Ophir Gottlieb's classic article on the trade mechanics of this strategy.

https://www.cmlviz.com:443/news/2017/08/22/the-incredible-option-trade-in-vxx-that-keeps-winning


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  #135 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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The latest announcement says UVXY will reverse split 10 to 1 on May 26th.


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  #136 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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Really good interview with UVXY Trader (from Twitter) by David Lincoln.

Don't try this at home, folks!



https://twitter.com/michaellistman


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  #137 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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One comment on that Listman interview. I know in the past he was doing UVXY put spreads similar to the 50/30 delta strategy above. Then recently he shifted to straight selling naked UVXY calls, and selling UVXY call spreads in his IRA account. He says the return is better. This goes against the way I was trained and also tested.

Setting aside the naked calls, as for the call spreads, back when I had CML Trade Machine Pro I did a ton of back tests in 2017 of the various strategies that you can do with vol products, and clearly the put spreads had better return and win rate over call spreads over time. And that would make sense since in bullish conditions, the IV on these products is lower than the normal threshhold for selling call spreads.

The return of VXX and UVXY put debit spreads over 3 years was north of 3000% in a bull market. I think VXX spreads had a slight edge. And this doesn't take into account liquidity.

As for naked calls, Listman said he adjusts by selling puts in a backwardation scenario.

My rules just don't allow that kind of trading. I will stick with put spreads, butterflies, and long strangles.


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  #138 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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Second day of trading UVXY after the reverse split and it's already down to the 35 handle. Sheesh!

Punters flooded into the options on the first day and LP really jacked the vol up. In this case you really would be justified in selling call spreads over puts since the IV is in the right territory.


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