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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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That is an interesting chart. Obviously back in the late 90s VIX stayed high for several years but that was followed by almost a decade of few new highs.
And this highlights two important points about the VIX that often gets lost in the discussion: VIX measures risk to the upside as well as downside
1) it's a measure of calls as well as puts, so although it's usually a Fear Index, sometimes the Irrational Exuberance of call buying exceeds the normal bias toward Fear and put buying so then VIX suddenly switches to an Irrational Exuberance Index.
Same pattern happened back before Volpocalypse in 2018.
2) it can definitely be manipulated by a whale
"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
I think the mail in ballot issue may make the vol play on this election much different from last time.
One wants to assume that the M1 M2 bump does not come out of the term structure on election night, but maybe it won't. I can imagine it might even get bigger if the outcome is in doubt due to mail-in.
"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
