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I should probably be more careful with those kinds of statements, I wasn't trying to insinuate conspiracies or anything.
It is possible some of those events were protest related, others "appeared" to be economic figure related (china economic releases), but it is also quite possible our news feeds have a lower priority on those events than their local news feeds. Also possible someone likes to have a gamble before the release too I suppose.
Really it has a minimal impact on me as I try to be flat for any major release.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thanks @amoeba -- there's not really anything special on my screen. For HSI I use a 40V chart for reference, and I plot cumulative delta and volume/time (from another chart) to see volume spikes. On Friday you see that HSI finally broke to a new low 72 minutes into the cash session to 549. If you plot delta there, you will see there is very negative delta on this low, with a rotation back up on weak delta, followed by a final push to 539 at 75 minutes in, with even more negative delta .. then you see it start to grind, and this is where it's all green... very little selling, very little pullback, forcing buyers to bid up and take offers to get in.
There's no delta divergence here and it's not really one of my trade triggers. In fact, let's say you do see a delta divergence at a low. To me this means that buyers have shown themselves, yet, bids probably fell off as it made a new low. That's not really what I want to see, generally speaking. It's a very speculative long when the buyers have not really showed up yet to lift the offers. I put more emphasis on the above trade that with two new lows, on heavy selling, they couldn't get it more than 15 points below the earlier session low .. the new low brought in some heavy selling but it was absorbed, and did not bring in enough additional selling to push it lower. This is a good context to buy, but until they start lifting after that, it's still a bit speculative. And that's what I meant -- you don't have to be the first, and you don't want to be the first. I let them show me that they want to buy, then I buy, then I need to see evidence that others are willing to help me out by pushing it higher. I've played the "pick the bottom" game too many times before, and while I was right at times, those gains were probably wiped out in the long term by other trades where I tried to pick a bottom.
I realize this post is a bit of a ramble, apologies.
Im very interested to learn more about your preperation. So many questions I dont even know where to start
First off, do you look for correlations across different asset classes or are you purely focused on findng probabilities within a single instrument?
Wrt indicators, how are you breaking down the data and what are you looking for?
Ill leave it there for now. Thanks for posting. Looking forward to reading more!
btw I lived and worked in Canberra for 2 years. I was into MTB riding and they have such awesome trails out there. Good times.
Not at all, it is always interesting to read how someone else observes activity.
I can see what you are saying, more looking for strength of participation with a move, and where that move is in the context of structural or the higher timeframe.
But much like you said about speculative reads, I dropped it from my decision-making process, as I personally found it adding an extra layer of information that was only making me indecisive. And somewhat similar information is present on the footprint.
Also agree 100% about picking tops/bottoms, especially with the HSI From what I can see (no experience trading the HSI yet) the rotations seem large enough and "generally" have enough follow-through to allow you to be picky with good pullbacks?
My condolences for having to live in Canberra, hope you also got to see other areas But Canberra does have a lot of beautiful bushland around it, and also close to the little amount of snow we get. (a novelty for Australians, probably not for those who come from heavy snow areas)
From another thread, it looks like you are getting into some pretty in-depth statistical work? I haven't ventured into cross-asset study as yet, I do find all stat research interesting but have not gone in that direction yet.
My studies started more from trying to better understand behavior in single instrument, and if there were any real opportunities behind what the eye likes to create a bias on. Also, I had 15 years of poor "trading wisdom" learnings things you read from books and hear in webinars, e.g. market profile value area stats and the like (possibly valid once, but not now).
I ended up developing an OO event driven model that records any behaviors I want, core ones like VP, MP, rotations, any bar periodicity I want, Daily/Weekly/Monthly, VPOC shifts, VWAP, 1st/2nd SD rotational impulses, etc, etc.. The primary thing is they are all connected in the model so that I can ask any type of question I like and then analyze the occurrences and interactions in multiple ways, and test for significance.
Being event driven means it has less hindsight bias risk (still always something to be conscious of though) and allows to ask interesting questions in the way I think when observing the market and notice something curious, like; "What usually happens after the first VPOC shift above/below the IB?", and more complex things like "After a day closes higher with a open to close range > 2sd, in which the day opened in a swing balance area and now closes above that value area high, what are the characteristics of the next opening day?"
My stats journey was quite the rabbit hole, and I did learn there is a large difference between discretionary trading and quant trading, and they can fight each other in my mind which only leads to indecisiveness. Also, the more complex the questions got the more the answers became "It depends..".
But the more simple questions did lead to more robust edges, like that example above about the first VPOC shift above/below the IB;
Very happy to discuss anything further and learn about your work too!
I wouldn't say so really -- the advantage is that it will run, consolidate, pop, and repeat. It doesn't really pull back enough to challenge the dominant side, once it gets going, which is of course why it keeps going strong. It will run, run, run, pop, run ... then bleed back over an hour, 70% of the day's range as it heads into lunch, for example. Bottom line is: you don't want to buy a pullback while it's pulling back. Buy as the buying is coming in. When it's in the "run" phase is the best time to buy. Any other time and it's really just a subpar situation. If it looks like a perfect pullback buy, and the energy has left, then chances are it's a good sell. Just my 0.02 from trading it for the past few months.
That's not too different from anything else though... after the move happens, the latecomers who are kicking themselves for not getting in, have now worked up the courage to get in. But of course, it's the worst time to get in, because the energy has left. That's why all of these ideas about having precise entry criteria, waiting for a pullback to more easily define risk, etc.. is just nonsense IMO. Order flow is buy, buy, buy, then look for a place to enter and get on it... waiting for a "good pullback" means you missed it, usually. When you get that great pullback entry, unless the buyers step back in, she'll just keep pulling back.
That said, I did buy 5 ticks off the low today because I saw it setting up, saw the order flow, and got in with a perfect entry. I got 101 ticks net, which is not really so great considering it rallied 300 ticks (so far) off the low. But, you can't really look at trades that way or it'll drive you crazy. I took the trades that were clear to me and they worked well. I made videos of the trades to share as I took them, but it has my acct number, so I will post if I can get that covered up.
HSI really dies after about 90 minutes in the session usually. MP concepts are tremendously critical to my trading methodology, but any notion of initial balance is basically out the window with HSI. If you look at IB as a percentage of daily range, I would ballpark that on average it's probably 70-80%. I'd bet that the average opening 15 minute range is about 50% of its average daily range, in fact. Just guesses and easy to verify if anyone cares enough to be precise, which I don't. Again, I ramble. Eek
Yes, I think we look at similar things, I probably use the terminology poorly.
In the mark-up below, would this be in-line to what you just described;
From this mornings action, at (1) a strong impulse down, there are two consolidations with follow-through in the initial impulse direction, but at the third consolidation, there is a pull-back (2), which ends the movement down and begins to balance.
That second consolidation I would look at as a pull-back, which I would be interested in taking (providing context with structure), My risk would be managed at the top of the first consolidation area, I would not want price back above that.
Are you potentially looking to take the trade from inside the first consolidation area?
In this case, I was long ES from 67s, and was in the process of getting out of my longs at 73 when HSI opened. So, I was not thinking short, and while a short looks good in retrospect, at the time I was only looking to buy. The move down was strong in places but overall quite choppy. For example, at 45 minutes in HSI was where it was 5 minutes in. Big moves back up, even if the selling pressure was constant. Delta stayed negative so I scalped a long or two but waited for the flush at the LOD to get long.
So I'd like to speculate but it'd be useless to say what I might have done, since I didn't do it
Hi @amoeba, I am still in the early stages of constructing data in a way that provides anything useful.
At the moment my approach is twofold:
1st objective is to count the occurrences of specific behaviours and then be able to generate reports indicating probabilites, confidence levels etc. This is exactly what you mentioned you are already doing and what I am trying to learn.
2nd objective is to filter realtime data to get an early warning of certain conditions unfolding. What I mean is that I am not able to predict an occurence before it has completed, but I might be able to identify conditions that are ripe for the occurence.
So for instance in the discussion between you and Josh regarding the move on the HSI, if the rate of change of price has deviated from the norm by a certain %, then perhaps there is a good chance that the signal was an early warning of a trend reversal and a possible trend continuation trade to the downside is on the cards. Remember that nothing specific has been identified only that conditions now warrant a closer look. You would be excluding all other possibilities in favour of a trend continuation theme because of the homework you would have already done in objective 1 which was to 'count the occurrences of specific behaviours'.
So the next question becomes: what is the average size of the first occurence of aggregation as price pauses and readies itself for the 2nd leg?
This is as far as I have got in my application of stats. although my course teaches how to calculate everything by hand, I have no intention of sitting and watching charts with a calculator and an array of formulas trying to find an edge. I turned to Python to automate what I can but that in itself is another learning curve. I know what I want to do, just figuring out how to corectly model the data using dataframes, and then plot the results on a graph or report.
I like the idea modelling around linear regression, 4hr, daily and weekly deviations and then finding reasons to trade in line with HTF themes. The reason Im going to all this effort is because im weak . Ive tried everything and still cannot overcome my discretionary mind. So I am trying to bridge the gap between stats and discretion and hopefully meet somewhere in the middle.
I hope you dont mind a few questions?
1st question: How have you connected you various indicators? What is common that allows you to connect, compare and measure?
2nd question: What tools are you using to model your data?
Cheers.
ps. Only a true blue Aussie would respond like that regarding Canberra . Curious that it is the captial of Australia with the highest concentration of politicians..and also the only place where prostitution is legal. I always wondered about that one
I stumbled upon this thread while in search of $TICK or $ADD for HSI and glad I did.
I trade HSI (for the last 4 or 5 months,,not without a great success yet) with market profile.
I derive my levels from balance areas and try to establish a context.
Attached is my chart for today's (1-14-20 in HK) trade and as long as price stays above 29080 I will look for long opps.
If it gaps up and accepted above 29240 then the 1st target will be 29400 area.
From what I can see (no experience trading the HSI yet) the rotations seem large enough and "generally" have enough follow-through to allow you to be picky with good pullbacks?
But Canberra does have a lot of beautiful bushland around it, and also close to the little amount of snow we get. (a novelty for Australians, probably not for those who come from heavy snow areas)
. Ive tried everything and still cannot overcome my discretionary mind. So I am trying to bridge the 