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Scalping ES, need help

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  #1 (permalink)
 ALC77 
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I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

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 xplorer 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

Hi ALC77

Personally I don't have experience with scalping the ES so I can't offer practical help in that regard.


Having said that, you say that you have figured out your biggest problem, i.e. you keep getting the direction wrong.

You mention "I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time."

Would you be able to break this down in further detail? For instance, are there specific patterns that you are waiting for? What is it you think is happening before entering the trade? Are you trading specific levels, e.g. steps in the profile, or High/Low of the day, prior day's High/Low, etc.?

If you use Jigsaw, have you got in touch with Peter, asking for advice?

Have you tried emailing John Grady (I understand he's generally happy to respond to queries via email)?


I don't know if the next suggestion will help you at all but if you are looking for a way to analyze in greater detail the trades you are logging I have been developing something to that effect, here.

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 kareem40 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

Hi ALC77
For one tick, you would be competing with ALGO and super fast, on the exchange computers. I don't think that is possible. No BS I believe works with Notes and Bonds mostly, which tend to be a bit slow to move.
Either way, good luck and if you do find a set up, please journal/post.

K

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 xplorer 
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kareem40 View Post
Hi ALC77
For one tick, you would be competing with ALGO and super fast, on the exchange computers. I don't think that is possible. No BS I believe works with Notes and Bonds mostly, which tend to be a bit slow to move.
Either way, good luck and if you do find a set up, please journal/post.

K

@ALC77 a really good point by kareem40 which I forgot to mention: scalping for 1 tick when the downside is clearly more than 1 tick is not likely to get you far.

I know Jigsaw had a 1-tick drill although it was never an exercise intended to translate into a 1-tick profit methodology.

Have you gone through those drills by the way / would you like pointers for more scalping drills?

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 JBWTrader 
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ALC77 You will get murdered everytime as some people have already pointed out...this means you are hoping rather than trading something with proven method. You need more experience, tons more even though you feel you have done a lot already and you probably have !
lets open it up.
Why did you choose 1 tick scalps ? you thought you saw something ? be very careful...delusions are grand in this game. On paper there might be something with 30-50% win rate but can you really get in where exactly you want ? you are walking a very skinny tightrope...
Did you think you could be smart and risk only one tick and you wont go broke ? this is normal stuff so dont be put off by these questions, we nearly all go through it.

Drop the idea with 1 tick. Find the axioms of price and its structure. You havtn found any yet , unless im wrong.But method needs to be proven. You are proving this method does not work in fact. So well done. Now can you let go of it and start all over again or maybe use something and build upon it.

best of luck

John

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 ALC77 
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xplorer View Post
@ALC77 a really good point by kareem40 which I forgot to mention: scalping for 1 tick when the downside is clearly more than 1 tick is not likely to get you far.

I know Jigsaw had a 1-tick drill although it was never an exercise intended to translate into a 1-tick profit methodology.

Have you gone through those drills by the way / would you like pointers for more scalping drills?

Yes, I'd like pointers for more scalping drills. I'm not stuck on 1 tick -- I'd love to be able to make more, but I've been led to believe that scalping is the quickest way to get profitable.

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 ALC77 
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JBWTrader View Post
ALC77 You will get murdered everytime as some people have already pointed out...this means you are hoping rather than trading something with proven method. You need more experience, tons more even though you feel you have done a lot already and you probably have !
lets open it up.
Why did you choose 1 tick scalps ? you thought you saw something ? be very careful...delusions are grand in this game. On paper there might be something with 30-50% win rate but can you really get in where exactly you want ? you are walking a very skinny tightrope...
Did you think you could be smart and risk only one tick and you wont go broke ? this is normal stuff so dont be put off by these questions, we nearly all go through it.

Drop the idea with 1 tick. Find the axioms of price and its structure. You havtn found any yet , unless im wrong.But method needs to be proven. You are proving this method does not work in fact. So well done. Now can you let go of it and start all over again or maybe use something and build upon it.

best of luck

John

Can you please clarify "find the axioms of price and its structure"? I don't really understand what that means or what you're trying to say. Can that be worded different somehow?

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 JBWTrader 
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ALC77 View Post
Can you please clarify "find the axioms of price and its structure"? I don't really understand what that means or what you're trying to say. Can that be worded different somehow?


Have you done any higher Maths at Uni or come across Euclid's 5 axioms in geometry for eg ? well the axioms are fundamental building blocks. Same with price and to where it moves etc or not.

Best of luck

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 xplorer 
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ALC77 View Post
Yes, I'd like pointers for more scalping drills.

Check these out






https://www.pricesquawk.com/prop-trading-drills-automated-trading/

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 GarySeven 
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There is really no such thing as "scalping" anymore. This was a term used in pit trading before everything changed.

Even if you take a hundred trades a day you are not a scalper but a day trader.

Jim Dalton can explain it better than I can. The whole video is good but he explains the difference in trading at 5:30

https://jimdaltontrading.com/jul-31-2019-webinar/


And some final thoughts on overtrading...

Trading should be called waiting, because that's the biggest part of the game. If you are always trading, you will lose over time.

Being right but being early is the same as being wrong.

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 akuush 
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@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.

I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.

I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.

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 wldman 
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"trading" is difficult to define and certainly not what it used to be. What Dalton did on the CBOE/CBOT was indeed trading. Now it seems as though there is no trading, rather short term directional speculation.



GarySeven View Post
There is really no such thing as "scalping" anymore. This was a term used in pit trading before everything changed.

Even if you take a hundred trades a day you are not a scalper but a day trader.

Jim Dalton can explain it better than I can. The whole video is good but he explains the difference in trading at 5:30

https://jimdaltontrading.com/jul-31-2019-webinar/


And some final thoughts on overtrading...

Trading should be called waiting, because that's the biggest part of the game. If you are always trading, you will lose over time.

Being right but being early is the same as being wrong.


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 MiniP 
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akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.

I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.

I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.

about 50% of my trades are all 1:1.. all the trades I took today were 1:1

The biggest factor to this is making sure you cut losers when signaled out.

I wouldn't define my self as a scalper but I'm defiantly very short term

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 wldman 
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I am concerned that you give a week to a concept and stick to it for the ENTIRE week. How in the world do you maintain that kind of discipline?

The shortest time frame...what you are referring to as scalping is dominated by the HFT crowd. If you are able to enter and exit within seconds or a minute I would suggest to you that you are simply lucky and in the way. I'm not saying that a person cant build some type of model that COULD provide some type of edge...I'm saying that it would take a very high level effort over a significant period of time.

If you like to be in ES for a few ticks and do that repeatedly all day long I would suggest that you identify trend and simply get in the way. Perhaps have your closing orders as resting limits and hit or take as momentum (volatility) comes or goes. If you do nothing but get filled on your resting orders designed to close you could probably hit or take ad post hoc.

Does that make any sense?



akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.

I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.

I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.


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 wldman 
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as the most basic first point of reference, below is a 1600 tick chart (a century to HFT guys) If you look at the gold as the signal line and buy when the green goes above gold and sell when green goes below gold you have the STARTING basis for a "scalp" method.

Of course you are going to get killed when the trade line crosses back and fourth...indicator folks call that "chop" and will search for a "filter" and ultimately add indicator or secret settings until their money or their desire is gone.

The next step in sophistication would be a macd rate of change. IMO this is chasing the wind. Again, I'm not saying that it can't be done...it can, for sure. The issue is that very sophisticated firms have high level programmers that program on the fly (intra-day) to adjust for prevailing conditions.


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 akuush 
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wldman View Post
I am concerned that you give a week to a concept and stick to it for the ENTIRE week. How in the world do you maintain that kind of discipline?

The shortest time frame...what you are referring to as scalping is dominated by the HFT crowd. If you are able to enter and exit within seconds or a minute I would suggest to you that you are simply lucky and in the way. I'm not saying that a person cant build some type of model that COULD provide some type of edge...I'm saying that it would take a very high level effort over a significant period of time.

If you like to be in ES for a few ticks and do that repeatedly all day long I would suggest that you identify trend and simply get in the way. Perhaps have your closing orders as resting limits and hit or take as momentum (volatility) comes or goes. If you do nothing but get filled on your resting orders designed to close you could probably hit or take ad post hoc.

Does that make any sense?

I'm just trying the idea that Peter shared in his webinars, take an idea that you have observed and apply it for 2 weeks in the markets, don't change it, stick to it and at the end of the 2 weeks analyze your results.

After completing the Pice Ladder training with JigSaw and Axia Futures, I'm just trying to follow what I have learned so far. Most of the patterns they teach in the Price Ladder course are relatively short term trading(3-10 ticks). I would definitely say it was a surprise watching how these traders trade.

Like you said, I might be simply getting lucky and in the way. But until I fail and see the results myself this will haunt me and be stuck in my head forever.


I can try what you are suggesting, not quite sure what you mean in the last sentence though
wldman View Post
'If you do nothing but get filled on your resting orders designed to close you could probably hit or take ad post hoc.'


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 wldman 
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I don't want you to try that...I want you to find what works for you.

I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?

There is a fair amount to overcome. Trade expenses and spread for example. For me, on ES. If I give up the spread its minimum 2 ticks. I have a fractional tick in commissions and fees. Say conservatively I give up 2.5 ticks to the spread and trade related costs. It is fair to expect at least 1 tick in slippage on either side unless you are resting orders in the book. So say you have to overcome 3.5 ticks per round trip to break even.

Do you see that and agree, or no?

Break even is now 4 ticks.

I could be missing it, but don't you have to be right almost all of the time and for at least 5 ticks to make 12.50 per trade?

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 xplorer 
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wldman View Post
I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?


ALC77 View Post
I've been led to believe that scalping is the quickest way to get profitable.


This should generate some interesting discussion.

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 wldman 
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xplorer View Post
This should generate some interesting discussion.

That is a theory that could be debated.

But...wldman does not have the fortitude.

I recognize that my posts today might be a little terse.

The ONLY edge in actual scalping was in that you could be on the inside market executing simultaneously in a somewhat riskless manner.

Scalping is not defined by the "teeny" it was defined by the ability to have both hands in the air at the same time taking 'em in and putting 'em out at the same time. The edge was being on the inside market when "paper" came in. WE ARE the paper, not the trading crowd.

Super short term directional speculation is perhaps the least likely way to "become" profitable. Using a prior theoretical edge is NOT a connotation for small move or short term directional speculation.

The reason most people "scalp" the micro contract is because they do not have a deposit large enough for over nite carry. This is a complete and unmitigated disaster waiting to happen....mostly because it takes time out of the equation. Time is your friend, not your enemy in trading.

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 akuush 
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wldman View Post
I don't want you to try that...I want you to find what works for you.

I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?

There is a fair amount to overcome. Trade expenses and spread for example. For me, on ES. If I give up the spread its minimum 2 ticks. I have a fractional tick in commissions and fees. Say conservatively I give up 2.5 ticks to the spread and trade related costs. It is fair to expect at least 1 tick in slippage on either side unless you are resting orders in the book. So say you have to overcome 3.5 ticks per round trip to break even.

Do you see that and agree, or no?

Break even is now 4 ticks.

I could be missing it, but don't you have to be right almost all of the time and for at least 5 ticks to make 12.50 per trade?

So I came up with multiple reasons why short term trading was for me, but most of the reasons had a great counter reason to not... I think it comes down to personality, some people don't have the stomach to risk for longer time frames. Same reason people only do intra day and others are fine with swing trading and holding positions for days and weeks.

Looking at it, I'm definitely not the person type that could hold the trade for longer time frames, which is why I choose to short term trade.

I don't understand the spread part though but I see your point with slippage when you hit the bid / join the offer and the commissions. And I agree that you pay a portion to break even, and with scalping it's a big chunk of your profits.

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 kareem40 
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With exception of news trading, where chart does not really matter, having longer TFs ( 15M+) charts has for sure help my trading/losses. I cannot remember who said it, but it was said that the size of time bar you trade usually equals to your trading experience/work. One minute = one year, etc....

With that said, I have seen very good money made on 15 second as well as daily charts! Whatever works for you I guess.

Good trading,

K

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 teamtc247 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do differently to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but is moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

Hi Alcc77,

You have been provided a ton of good advice. There are plenty of ways to trade if you want to be a scalper. I think we all started off thinking of being scalpers, I know I did. Not wanting to risk money, and imagining getting rich quick. Not saying you're that type. There is certainly a ton to learn in trading, just be careful what you do, you don't want to damage yourself before you get going. Just remember you are going to have failure after failure until you even begin to see a glimpse of light. Once you see the light you will fall again and the cycle repeats. It's a dark tunnel of shit. Some people swear by the 15 min and 60. Others trade the 1 min in conjunction with another chart, I know you're a dom trader. Perhaps a dom in conjunction with a chart might help. Just remember whatever you do, you need to believe deep down in the core of your heart and mind. In this game, you need to be a follower, not a leader. The big money leads in all time, tick, etc there's no noise. Good luck on your journey.

Process oriented goals #1.
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 wldman 
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It is hard to advise because I don't know what you are doing in the first place.

Are you scalping because your deposit won't allow carry?

If so, and I don't want to be a dolt, it will be very difficult to sustain even very modest drawdown in the most competitive market in the world.

The price or tick correlation of these two products over the scalp time frame is spurious. It does not mean anything. IMO trying to trade with just a DOM and a T/S is like trying to read a book by only looking at the pictures...especially when there are algos running with the express purpose of trying to spoof other algos about what orders have standing in the book.

You can create a statistical model then pair your order type in the DOM to link your target and your stop....in other words cast them simultaneously, one cancels the other. A basic and viable stats model can be constructed in Excel in a day using historical data.

If you want to stop seeing red, stop doing what you are doing. If you want to talk about specifics, you can share. If I have any insight I'll try to share it in an encouraging way...if I don't have anything I wont make shit up.

I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

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 MiniP 
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wldman View Post

I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

Some of the realest shit ever said

can learn a lot from that one statement

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 bms71 
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akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.



I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.



I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.



Yes same. I’m on the journey with Jigsaw and doing those drills is really useful. 63% hit rate in my case with the cut and reverse scenario and almost 90% with the 1 tick drill.

I think the 1 tick drill is designed to recover from losses on the day and peel back some pain in certain situations. For example it works well in thick defined ranges but once price moves away then you’re more into positional trading.


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  #27 (permalink)
 ALC77 
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akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.

I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.

I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.

Thank you. This is very helpful information. Sounds like I definitely need to do the cut and reverse drill. I tried to get ahold of the original cut and reverse drill video that Guy Bowers had on his YouTube site. I couldn't find it so I contacted him a few months ago and he said that he removed it and now charges for it since it's in his current training materials. I will go back to Jigsaw Member's section and watch the one Peter did.

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  #28 (permalink)
 ALC77 
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wldman View Post
I don't want you to try that...I want you to find what works for you.

I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?

There is a fair amount to overcome. Trade expenses and spread for example. For me, on ES. If I give up the spread its minimum 2 ticks. I have a fractional tick in commissions and fees. Say conservatively I give up 2.5 ticks to the spread and trade related costs. It is fair to expect at least 1 tick in slippage on either side unless you are resting orders in the book. So say you have to overcome 3.5 ticks per round trip to break even.

Do you see that and agree, or no?

Break even is now 4 ticks.

I could be missing it, but don't you have to be right almost all of the time and for at least 5 ticks to make 12.50 per trade?

The reason I want to scalp is that it seems to fit my personality:

(1) I don't like a lot of risk. The longer you are in a trade the more of a chance of an "unplanned event" = more risk.

(2) It seems like it would be easier to get smaller bits of profit vs waiting hours for a larger move that may never come.

(3) More occurrences = more practice time. More occurrences will desensitize a person from the "thrill" of trading. I want to remove or minimize my emotions from trading.

If you are having to spend 3.5 ticks round trip to break even then that is NOT the broker for a scalper. Scalpers MUST have a round trip rate at below the cost of 1 tick of the instrument they are trading. For instance: Tradefutures4less.com (A Stage 5 Trading company) charges $3.38 for a round trip on the ES as their HIGHEST rate. Their rates can go as low as $2.90 for a round trip on the ES, based on volume. ($12.50 - $3.38 = $9.12 profit per tick). Yes, having resting orders in the book is mostly how I trade, so there is no slippage for me. I either get filled or I don't.

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  #29 (permalink)
 ALC77 
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MiniP View Post
about 50% of my trades are all 1:1.. all the trades I took today were 1:1

The biggest factor to this is making sure you cut losers when signaled out.

I wouldn't define my self as a scalper but I'm defiantly very short term

-P

Can I ask what you use to determine what the immediate direction is before you enter a trade?

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 ALC77 
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wldman View Post
I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

Well, that was the point of the post - I need something that I don't currently have to help me make better guesses. I finally pulled up a live chart this week on investing.com (Jigsaw doesn't have charts) and I seemed to do a bit better using that for a bit of perspective. It seems that I can only see the leaves and not the trees while just watching the DOMs. I changed to 2 ticks profit target with 2 ticks stop (1:1 ratio that another person mentioned) and I had a green day! I'll take that - that's more progress than I've had. I just know there was no point in trying 1 tick profit target with a 1 tick stop, so that's why I started with 1 tick profit target with a 2 tick stop.

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  #31 (permalink)
 wldman 
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To be fair, I do not know Jigsaw or their methods, so I cant be too critical of something that I do not know/understand. Also, there is more than one way to swipe a few ticks. Add to the mix the fact that as a market maker, both nasdaq and floor, I never looked at a chart. Charts and indicators never had a place until I was "upstairs". I certainly did fine before charts AND I certainly went through MANY things that DID NOT work for me along the evolutionary road to right here.

FWIW, this is the most competitive field and perhaps the most difficult "career" there is.

That said, If I was going to make one suggestion for you to consider it would be a "market internals" screen. This can give an insight into where price might be going. Feel free to ask any questions...nothing is assumed.


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  #32 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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ALC77 View Post
I'm not stuck on 1 tick -- I'd love to be able to make more, but I've been led to believe that scalping is the quickest way to get profitable.

@ALC77, I have no personal experience in this type of extremely fast, extremely short-term trading to capture ticks, but @wldman does, having been a professional at it. As he put it:


wldman View Post

FWIW, this is the most competitive field and perhaps the most difficult "career" there is.

What I do know is that, in literally years of reading journals on this site, I have not seen one that I can remember where the trader succeeded at this type of trading. This doesn't mean that it can't be done, but I wonder about what you said, that "I've been led to believe that scalping is the quickest way to get profitable." I think it can work for a very few people, as many things probably can. But you are going up against some really good competition: traders who have been pros at this for years (or decades), and high frequency programs that will do better at grabbing a tick than any human trader.

I don't want to discourage you, but I'd say the odds are with the other side in this arena.

I do think there is opportunity for short-term trading for very small targets, and Jigsaw has an excellent reputation; I would suggest broadening out and reconsidering the extreme version of scalping you have been trying. Most traders who refer to themselves as "scalpers" actually look for more ticks and have a much better risk/return profile from doing so.

Sorry I can't give specific advice -- it's just really not my area -- but the one thing I can suggest is to not try to play the exact game that the pros and the algos are already very, very good at. You probably can do better with a wider perspective and longer time/tick horizon.

Good luck. No type of trading is easy. I hope you can find a niche you can exploit profitably and well. It could be what you're currently trying, for all I know. I just wanted to suggest you reconsider your options a bit.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
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  #33 (permalink)
 wldman 
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On the desk (nasdaq) we never scalped. The thought was that we can take in inventory at wholesale and put inventory out at retail. The spreads were wide 3/8 of a point and order flow was our friend. We positioned things when we took a position more because of anticipated order flow than because of any stock specific item.

On the floor I only scalped when it was the most efficient way to get to neutral (hedged or flat) Many locals could scalp pretty well and would do it to "make a paycheck". Often they were "spreaders" so when something did not fit and there was no anticipation of two sided order flow, the scalp got you paid. The way I was trained in options was to look elsewhere...someplace other than where most of the crowd typically looked. So that was reversal, conversion, box, roll.

Reversal is long put, long stock, short call...so if I was buying puts, rather than look to sell those or other puts, Id look at stock and calls. Box is spreading off the risk in the same ex cycle either down strikes or up strikes. Roll is doing the same but in a future ex cycle.

The futures floors were more "scalp-centric" and many of the locals made unbelievable money doing it. Of course this all started to die as hand held monitors came in. Guys upstairs would know about intra market orderflow and nudge pricing based on the firms position and client needs...essentially the beginning of the end for open outcry.

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 MiniP 
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wldman View Post

That said, If I was going to make one suggestion for you to consider it would be a "market internals" screen. This can give an insight into where price might be going. Feel free to ask any questions...nothing is assumed.


can you expand on this.. I've never really looked into using anything like this

I've looked at TRIN but thats about it

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 MiniP 
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ALC77 View Post
Can I ask what you use to determine what the immediate direction is before you enter a trade?

I use two charts I have a 4500 tick chart for placing trades, that chart has a 21 ema that I make sure my entry candles close on one side of the line (above for longs , below for shorts)

I also use a 5 min chart with a 21 ema,60 ema and 200 ema I really only use this for finding V bottom plays and the 200 ema is normally what I trade in the direction of, yesterday was a good mean reversion day we have a sharp drop so my goal with longs was get back to the 200 ema and then wait to see

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #36 (permalink)
 JonnyBoy 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

You have received some great responses here, so I don't necessarily need to add mine. All I will say is you are getting a toxic fill more often than not and it is hard to recover from that. You are late to the party. Late being seconds which is an eternity for the algorithms.

And just as a side note, you mentioned "...like I hear so many successful people talking about". It is extremely rare for successful traders to give away the exact method of how they trade. Most will skirt around how they really do it and leave some sauce on the side. So just because somebody says they are successful at something, it doesn't mean they are, or it doesn't mean there isn't another piece of the puzzle they are not telling you.

@iantg is one of the greats with respect to dissecting price / volume and can give you a much better explanation of toxic fills and how to potentially recognise / avoid them. He might be able to help you, but I don't want to put words in his mouth but I am sure he will weigh in if he feels there is something constructive to add.

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 wldman 
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What you say about leaving some sauce on the side IS SPECIFICALLY TRUE. But there is both a nefarious and a genuine cause. Speaking only for myself. I have NEVER intentionally left something off with an intent to conceal. Sometimes that happens, especially with people that have something to sell. When it is intentional, regardless of the reason it is nefarious.

Often people communicate based on their specific consciousness...meaning that things can get left off because they are assumed. The error is in the calculation that others have the same consciousness. In other words everyone does not have the same shared experience or specific knowledge. Omission is an error of construct, not an effort to conceal or mislead.

-Dan



JonnyBoy View Post
You have received some great responses here, so I don't necessarily need to add mine. All I will say is you are getting a toxic fill more often than not and it is hard to recover from that. You are late to the party. Late being seconds which is an eternity for the algorithms.

And just as a side note, you mentioned "...like I hear so many successful people talking about". It is extremely rare for successful traders to give away the exact method of how they trade. Most will skirt around how they really do it and leave some sauce on the side. So just because somebody says they are successful at something, it doesn't mean they are, or it doesn't mean there isn't another piece of the puzzle they are not telling you.

@iantg is one of the greats with respect to dissecting price / volume and can give you a much better explanation of toxic fills and how to potentially recognise / avoid them. He might be able to help you, but I don't want to put words in his mouth but I am sure he will weigh in if he feels there is something constructive to add.


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  #38 (permalink)
 iantg 
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I may be able to add a few things of value. I started a public microstructure thread a while back specifically for the ES. That should help shed some light on the relationship between volume and price in a more granular way.

But the TLTR is this. It is very easy to predict the next tick up or down. It is very easy to get filled on the wrong end of this. (toxic fill). But it is damn near impossible to get filled on the right side of this and get the one free tick. All of the volume you see in the DOM is mostly just people waiting in the queue to get near the front of th line so when the winning side fills 10% from the line, they are in the 10%. These people also have to be fast enough to land a cancel when the shit hits the fans too. Retail traders on any platform co-located or not will neither have the data feed (MBO), the real time processing power to know where they are in line at any point in time not the ability to land a cancel when it matters.

So to cut to th chase the real equation you are solving for is this.

1. All your fills will initially be toxic. Some maybe just one tick, but others 2 to 3 ticks initially.
2. If and when you tick back to positive, you will likely be too slow to get out half the time, so you will likely need to be up > 1 tick to capitalize on just the one tick.
3. So your initial risk is always going to be 1-3 ticks negative just to enter. Your stop loss needs to be further out than this or you will hit it 70% of the time no matter what.
4. Your reward of 1 tick will often require a 2 tick positive move.... This after you were in the red initially.
5. So ultimately with retail tools, your alpha will have to cover at least a 60% win rate just to barely break even. And this assumes you have a seat license and can get rock bottom commissions.
6. For bonus points, my microsctructure thread has examples of a roughly 53% -55% win rate that can be obtained with the right approach to volume analysis taxonomy. So all you have to do is come up with a 5% edge and you could theoretically break even.

Best of luck!

Ian

In the analytical world there is no such thing as art, there is only the science you know and the science you don't know. Characterizing the science you don't know as "art" is a fools game.
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  #39 (permalink)
 Trambo 
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Really interesting thread here and some great contributions.

I can’t really offer much in the way of advice as I’m still not profitable but I’ve basically just stopped pursuing this technique.

I’m also a Jigsaw user and came from the bonds trying to implement John Grady’s technique and training. I’ve had a number of stop starts for a number of reasons but more recently I’ve been attempting very small scalps in the ES - basically as Pete talks about in his pretty famous scalping video.

I was also spurred on by hearing how successful Gary Norden is at this - but remember he’s been doing it for decades and I think looks at thinner markets than the ES. The ES is a complex beast with a number of different participants after different things. Volatility recently seems to be well above what I personally can keep track of and I found that if I say and watched I could read things pretty well but the second I got involved I’d have to market myself out to contain losses.

The one tick drill isn’t meant as a strategy for actually trading and Pete is pretty clear on this, even when you talk to people who employ techniques similar to this it’s usually within a wider strategy. I found on a sim I could make it work to a degree but due to toxic fills, volatility and poor reading skills combined I personally would get chopped up.

I’m not saying it can’t be done, but I couldn’t do it. I spent a couple of weeks doing the observation skills and came out just trying to leg into momentum moved, this is what stands out naturally to me, but I still find it really hard in the ES, so I’ve headed back over to the bonds where I can keep up - although volatility there is good right now, although I’ve been considering looking into spread trading rather than outright s, truth be told though I feel I’d just be method hunting if I did that.

Don’t beat yourself up over it by the way - you’re DOM skills have probably improved massively through this even if you do decide to pursue an alternative strategy.

I’d be really interested to hear what Pete’s advice would be, I just tried tagging him here but not sure if it worked, maybe reach out to him. One thing I’d say is head over to the Jigsaw trading room and just ask, they really are a good bunch with vast experience in the ES and with the ladder - stick around and you’ll learn a ton, particularly when the market is quiet or at the end of trading when people can get into chatting about your query rather than having to focus mainly on trading.

Regards.

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  #40 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
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ALC77 View Post
The reason I want to scalp is that it seems to fit my personality:

(1) I don't like a lot of risk. The longer you are in a trade the more of a chance of an "unplanned event" = more risk.

(2) It seems like it would be easier to get smaller bits of profit vs waiting hours for a larger move that may never come.

(3) More occurrences = more practice time. More occurrences will desensitize a person from the "thrill" of trading. I want to remove or minimize my emotions from trading.

If you are having to spend 3.5 ticks round trip to break even then that is NOT the broker for a scalper. Scalpers MUST have a round trip rate at below the cost of 1 tick of the instrument they are trading. For instance: Tradefutures4less.com (A Stage 5 Trading company) charges $3.38 for a round trip on the ES as their HIGHEST rate. Their rates can go as low as $2.90 for a round trip on the ES, based on volume. ($12.50 - $3.38 = $9.12 profit per tick). Yes, having resting orders in the book is mostly how I trade, so there is no slippage for me. I either get filled or I don't.

You might take a look at this guy's trades (mark101rrrr) on Jigsaw Leaderboard. It's quite remarkable. So I guess it can be done. I scalp the CL for 1 tick early in the day before the market opens. But I don't trade it as well as this guy does. Many of his trades are 0:0 time in/out. I've asked about it - no answer from anyone to date. It may be an auto bot on the MT4 or 5 platform. I mapped over 100 of his trades, reviewed them in replay - I made a video of replay so I could slow it down to see if there was anything on the Jigsaw DOM which would give some insight into the strategy. Occasionally, I saw something. Most of the time, not. In any case, you should take a look - you can download the details of all his trades.

I think it's curious that no one other than myself has asked about it - at least to knowledge, no one has.

https://www.jigsawtrading.com/leaderboard/

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 ALC77 
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phantomtrader View Post
You might take a look at this guy's trades (mark101rrrr) on Jigsaw Leaderboard. It's quite remarkable. So I guess it can be done. I scalp the CL for 1 tick early in the day before the market opens. But I don't trade it as well as this guy does. Many of his trades are 0:0 time in/out. I've asked about it - no answer from anyone to date. It may be an auto bot on the MT4 or 5 platform. I mapped over 100 of his trades, reviewed them in replay - I made a video of replay so I could slow it down to see if there was anything on the Jigsaw DOM which would give some insight into the strategy. Occasionally, I saw something. Most of the time, not. In any case, you should take a look - you can download the details of all his trades.

I think it's curious that no one other than myself has asked about it - at least to knowledge, no one has.

https://www.jigsawtrading.com/leaderboard/

@phantomtrader You are right. You and I have had this conversation about mark101rrr in PM recently. I really do think he has something automated set up. I am not trying to fully automate anything so I really doubt I can get to that level, nor will I be trying to!

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 ALC77 
Texas, USA
 
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Trambo View Post
Really interesting thread here and some great contributions.

I can’t really offer much in the way of advice as I’m still not profitable but I’ve basically just stopped pursuing this technique.

I’m also a Jigsaw user and came from the bonds trying to implement John Grady’s technique and training. I’ve had a number of stop starts for a number of reasons but more recently I’ve been attempting very small scalps in the ES - basically as Pete talks about in his pretty famous scalping video.

I was also spurred on by hearing how successful Gary Norden is at this - but remember he’s been doing it for decades and I think looks at thinner markets than the ES. The ES is a complex beast with a number of different participants after different things. Volatility recently seems to be well above what I personally can keep track of and I found that if I say and watched I could read things pretty well but the second I got involved I’d have to market myself out to contain losses.

The one tick drill isn’t meant as a strategy for actually trading and Pete is pretty clear on this, even when you talk to people who employ techniques similar to this it’s usually within a wider strategy. I found on a sim I could make it work to a degree but due to toxic fills, volatility and poor reading skills combined I personally would get chopped up.

I’m not saying it can’t be done, but I couldn’t do it. I spent a couple of weeks doing the observation skills and came out just trying to leg into momentum moved, this is what stands out naturally to me, but I still find it really hard in the ES, so I’ve headed back over to the bonds where I can keep up - although volatility there is good right now, although I’ve been considering looking into spread trading rather than outright s, truth be told though I feel I’d just be method hunting if I did that.

Don’t beat yourself up over it by the way - you’re DOM skills have probably improved massively through this even if you do decide to pursue an alternative strategy.

I’d be really interested to hear what Pete’s advice would be, I just tried tagging him here but not sure if it worked, maybe reach out to him. One thing I’d say is head over to the Jigsaw trading room and just ask, they really are a good bunch with vast experience in the ES and with the ladder - stick around and you’ll learn a ton, particularly when the market is quiet or at the end of trading when people can get into chatting about your query rather than having to focus mainly on trading.

Regards.

You are correct. Gary Norden does trade thinner markets than the ES. His 2nd book (And End to the Bull) is what lead me to want to become a scalper.

I'd love to see Pete's famous scalping video but I'd have to pay him another $349.00 for the Advanced Order Flow Training Pack and I'm just not sure it's worth that much to see that video.

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 matthew28 
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ALC77 View Post
I'd love to see Pete's famous scalping video but I'd have to pay him another $349.00 for the Advanced Order Flow Training Pack and I'm just not sure it's worth that much to see that video.

He might be talking about this one, or not. But worth watching if you haven't seen it as you are interested in scalping

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 Trambo 
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Matthew is correct - that's the video I mean. It's worth noting however that Pete isn't talking about scalping there he's talking about looking at correlated markets to trade the thinner markets.

There is another video here which is really useful:



I did buy the advanced course - it's good value I think having watched it a number of times, but the scalping video that is included is I think just another version of what is above, everything you need is in those two videos I think so don't feel you need the advanced course video JUST for the scalping video, it's good to have of course but the course has a number of other really worthwhile videos for when you feel ready for it.

With regards to Gary - I think an End To Bull is a fantastic book, I read it regularly. I remember him saying in a video with Pete he was "ok" at the Dax so I didn't realise he was trading it as much as he trades the FTSE. I've not tried either and probably won't to be honest.

My results from trading the One Tick Drill and subsequently the ES scalp are on journalytix, I've also recorded all my trades on video which I'll get around to sticking on there too at some point so happy to chat about it further if it helps.

Cheers.
Trambo

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 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
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There are a lot of problems with your plan but the primary one is you have completely underestimated the difficulty of what you are trying to do.

You think you are doing something unique from other retailers but you have not developed any proprietary systems, specialized software, ways of viewing the market, or indicators.

I could go into deep into the myriad of technical reasons for why what are you are trying to do is difficult and how you are not prepared. However, I think it might be better to take a step back and evaluate where your strengths are. For example, why do you think this method can be profitable or should be profitable in the first place?

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 glennts 
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If you are trading for ticks you want an instrument that gives you the most ticks per time. This is not the ES. While the ES moves 3 ticks the NQ or YM will move 10 - 12 ticks. Not sure why you think there is an advantage in looking at the YM in order to trade the ES but if it is because it is easier for you to see what you think are opportunities in the YM, although there may be a timing correlation in the effort to push one way or another but there will certainly not be a bang for the buck correlation. If you can read the YM then trade the YM.

Most people who have been doing this for awhile will probably agree that achieving consistent profitability is the hardest road they have ever traveled. Watching You-Tube videos and buying fancy software is easy to do and because there is nothing easy about any of this, any impressions you have developed based on your experience so far are likely not going to serve you well over the long haul.... assuming there is a long haul... which statistics argue is not likely.

Because you are new at this and don't really know what you are doing it would be wise for you to question all of your assumptions. Why? Because you don't know what you are doing. The sooner you accept that the sooner you'll start to make progress. There are many journals on IO with novice traders going into great detail each day and speaking with authority about market minutia concerning Opens and Closes of the worlds markets, fiscal policy and of course Market Profile and Fib levels.... and they have a losing day, and week, and month...and then they blow away in the wind. Would you choose as a mentor someone who doesn't have more experience than you and has never traded profitably? Well, at this stage in however long this is going to last for you, whenever you make a trading decision that is exactly what you are doing. Acting on the opinion of someone who has yet to demonstrate they can make this work. And therein lies one of the reasons this is so difficult. How do you make progress then? You'll need more time and the funds that will be required than you expect. You need tenacity. You need luck. And you need to put into this every ounce of energy and commitment you can muster. When you are frustrated and feel like all that you are doing is beating you head against a brick wall then you should take heart because that indicates you are on the right road. It's not going to be easy.... what most novice traders fail to accept is that this also means it is going to be hard.

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 numberjuani 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.



I would switch strategies and attempt to swing trade or at least hold all day. Intraday trading systems and super small targets generally do not backtest well or perform over a longer amount of time. Keep in mind one tick of profit doesn’t pay for slippage, commissions, and losing trades. Also, question the “common knowledge “ that rising volume is a bullish pattern.

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 akuush 
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Trambo View Post
Matthew is correct - that's the video I mean. It's worth noting however that Pete isn't talking about scalping there he's talking about looking at correlated markets to trade the thinner markets.

There is another video here which is really useful:



I did buy the advanced course - it's good value I think having watched it a number of times, but the scalping video that is included is I think just another version of what is above, everything you need is in those two videos I think so don't feel you need the advanced course video JUST for the scalping video, it's good to have of course but the course has a number of other really worthwhile videos for when you feel ready for it.

With regards to Gary - I think an End To Bull is a fantastic book, I read it regularly. I remember him saying in a video with Pete he was "ok" at the Dax so I didn't realise he was trading it as much as he trades the FTSE. I've not tried either and probably won't to be honest.

My results from trading the One Tick Drill and subsequently the ES scalp are on journalytix, I've also recorded all my trades on video which I'll get around to sticking on there too at some point so happy to chat about it further if it helps.

Cheers.
Trambo



Good to find other JigS traders who took the advance course(which is the Price Ladder course by Alex through Axia Futures). All the Price Ladder videos are good. I have watched them couple of times, and it takes a while to sink in. A lot of screen time is required, it's one thing to watch and then follow their drills, takes serious amount of screen time. After putting in screen time and observing the ladder I still think it wasn't a complete process. Don't get me wrong, you learn a lot and that core learning is important to understand the markets and the interaction between buyers and sellers. But I think they didn't cover areas where to expect those plays to happen. Like the absorption, momentum breakouts, reversals, they start with 'We are watching this key area, and expecting a price rejection, and following the market velocity......' they never tell how to identify those key areas before the trading day begins.

Looking at their other courses where they have training around FootPrint charts and VolumeProfile might help complete the entire process. The other course seem to be expensive though.. so not really leaning towards spending that much. I was able to find a lot of free videos put out by them and get a good handle to use Foot Print while executing it on the Price Ladder.

This video helped in understanding the difference:

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 mbondiett 
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do different to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but it moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

A lot of great advice on this thread.

The first principle of trading is that you will have to figure out for yourself how you are going to trade that will fit your personality and risk tolerance etc. As everyone says, "it will take a lot longer than you think, and it will be a lot harder than you think". That doesn't mean you can't succeed, it will just be slow and hard.

I am attaching a simple break even analysis model in excel for you to play with. You will notice real quick that if you are going to target small tick wins you are putting yourself into a situation that you cannot make many errors in your trade decisions.

Best regards and good luck in your journey.

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MichaelFlowTrader
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You said that you want 1 tick in ES, yet most of the vids and advice, save for The Getting Started in Scalping vid, isn't really scalping advice. If you want to learn how to scalp scalp scalp and want mentors, you either go to Norden or maybe Scalping Education who was a Norden student. Scalping Education doesn't scalp for 1 tick in the ES, he scalps for 3. He only scalps for 1 tick in ZB.

What I've learned from obsessing over Norden, market making, real scalping (not that BS that most ppl call scalping) is that you have to take their principles and carve out your own niche. You might find yourself doing things a bit differently, but as long as your winrate is over 80% and you are making money--- you are doing well.

When it comes to correlation, perhaps use more than just YM. Have YM, NQ, RYT, UB, ZB, ZN up. In certain moments they work off each other. The last 2 weeks you could use NQ/YM/ES as an inverse correlation for UB/ZB picking off a tick or 2. The problem is that correlations often breakdown.

I'm no longer playing the correlations, I'm hunting retailers and other screen watchers at their local watering hole.... That is why I reintroduced a chart, so that I can pick them off. Using the orderbook and T/S to let me know when it is safe to attack them, who else is hunting, what type of games are being played in the book, where is the manipulation, when can I even use orderbook spoofing to my advantage when I observe it.

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 Trambo 
Glasgow, Lanarkshire Scotland
 
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MichaelFlowTrader View Post
You said that you want 1 tick in ES, yet most of the vids and advice, save for The Getting Started in Scalping vid, isn't really scalping advice. If you want to learn how to scalp scalp scalp and want mentors, you either go to Norden or maybe Scalping Education who was a Norden student. Scalping Education doesn't scalp for 1 tick in the ES, he scalps for 3. He only scalps for 1 tick in ZB.

What I've learned from obsessing over Norden, market making, real scalping (not that BS that most ppl call scalping) is that you have to take their principles and carve out your own niche. You might find yourself doing things a bit differently, but as long as your winrate is over 80% and you are making money--- you are doing well.

When it comes to correlation, perhaps use more than just YM. Have YM, NQ, RYT, UB, ZB, ZN up. In certain moments they work off each other. The last 2 weeks you could use NQ/YM/ES as an inverse correlation for UB/ZB picking off a tick or 2. The problem is that correlations often breakdown.

I'm no longer playing the correlations, I'm hunting retailers and other screen watchers at their local watering hole.... That is why I reintroduced a chart, so that I can pick them off. Using the orderbook and T/S to let me know when it is safe to attack them, who else is hunting, what type of games are being played in the book, where is the manipulation, when can I even use orderbook spoofing to my advantage when I observe it.

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Michael,

Really interesting reading this - I've a ton of questions about this whole hunting retailers thing, but as that's your specific edge I don't expect you to explain it all. out of interest though is this trading education guy someone you've received training from? I haven't heard of him before and on checking him out it kind of appears he's potentially just selling on Gary's teachings, not sure how he'd feel about that if that's the case? Just wondered.

Cheers,
Trambo.

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MichaelFlowTrader
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Trambo View Post
Michael,

Really interesting reading this - I've a ton of questions about this whole hunting retailers thing, but as that's your specific edge I don't expect you to explain it all. out of interest though is this trading education guy someone you've received training from? I haven't heard of him before and on checking him out it kind of appears he's potentially just selling on Gary's teachings, not sure how he'd feel about that if that's the case? Just wondered.

Cheers,
Trambo.

I haven't traded or learned from the trading education guy yet. He does answer emails and will have a conversation with you. And from everything that he's told me, he isn't really just copying Gary Norden's style. He has a lot of his own ideas and he suggests that no matter who you learn from that you develop your own style from them.

On hunting retail, I came up with that idea after looking at charts and the Dom, seeing where chart watchers will get stuck, or where the herd will give you a bit of a push.

Today, I closed the charts and just traded ES with RTY, NQ, YM up as what I tee'd off of for direction. I had a pretty good run at it before things broke down. One obstacle I had was that I was away from my computer and was stuck using the silly Tradovate app. It was lagging and it made it hard to scratch trades in time, and jump in. When it worked, I was in and out under 25 seconds.

My chart + Dom trading was most successful today trading ZB and UB. I made 5 trades and won all of them. When things picked up I couldn't get filled where I wanted to so I quit and went back to ES. I am seriously thinking about only trading bonds for their consistency. Boring, kinda but I want to protect my PnL.

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 CannonTrading   is a Vendor
 
 
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MichaelFlowTrader View Post
I haven't traded or learned from the trading education guy yet. He does answer emails and will have a conversation with you. And from everything that he's told me, he isn't really just copying Gary Norden's style. He has a lot of his own ideas and he suggests that no matter who you learn from that you develop your own style from them.

On hunting retail, I came up with that idea after looking at charts and the Dom, seeing where chart watchers will get stuck, or where the herd will give you a bit of a push.

Today, I closed the charts and just traded ES with RTY, NQ, YM up as what I tee'd off of for direction. I had a pretty good run at it before things broke down. One obstacle I had was that I was away from and was stuck using the silly Tradovate app. It was lagging and it made it hard to scratch trades in time, and jump in. When it worked, I was in and out withing under 25 seconds.

My chart + Dom trading was most successful today trading ZB and UB. I made 5 trades and won all of them. When things picked up I couldn't get filled where I wanted to so I quit and went back to ES? I seriously thinking about only trading bonds for their consistency. Boring, kinda but I want to protect my PnL.

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I think the bonds are a great market for day-trading.

I love 4 main factors as both someone who trades and as a broker:

large tick size @ $31.50 per tick
low margins and daytrading margins
lower cost as the exchange fees are $0.80 round turn cheaper the ES
different personality and trading behavior.

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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MichaelFlowTrader
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I think the bonds are a great market for day-trading.

I love 4 main factors as both someone who trades and as a broker:

large tick size @ $31.50 per tick
low margins and daytrading margins
lower cost as the exchange fees are $0.80 round turn cheaper the ES
different personality and trading behavior.

I think that bonds are a good product, but for a lot of ppl they aren't sexy enough. The risk factor of not getting chewed up isn't there! The controlled movement, most times of the month, makes them seem flat. I learned a term from reading market making white papers, non-directional volatility. Bonds have a lot of that. At times, it appears that price will sit at a level and flip back and forth for 20 mins. If you can get good queue position, I think that would be prime scalping time. Alternatively, simply watching a chart, entering in on continuation bars, even when they are slow to make progress gives an opportunity to scalp a tick. I think if OP wants to successfully scalp only 1 tick at a time for a living, UB and ZB might be his new home. I'm also thinking about moving in the same neighborhood.

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trade5000
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Personally I think it is better to look for the larger moves on ES based on opportunities that present themselves on the larger time frames (1 hour, 4 hour and daily) as well as daily, weekly and monthly pivots

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Personally I think it is better to look for the larger moves on ES based on opportunities that present themselves on the larger time frames (1 hour, 4 hour and daily) as well as daily, weekly and monthly pivots

I fully agree! I can share that statistically from observations I have, traders who trade the larger time frames have better chances than those trying to scalp 2-3 ticks. There are always exceptions but this is what i have seen from the sidelines over many years and also my experience when designing trading systems etc.

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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