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Scalping ES, need help


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Scalping ES, need help

  #21 (permalink)
Indianapolis, IN
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES & CL
 
Posts: 14 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 11 given, 14 received

Please don't be sorry..


wldman View Post
I don't want you to try that...I want you to find what works for you.

I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?

There is a fair amount to overcome. Trade expenses and spread for example. For me, on ES. If I give up the spread its minimum 2 ticks. I have a fractional tick in commissions and fees. Say conservatively I give up 2.5 ticks to the spread and trade related costs. It is fair to expect at least 1 tick in slippage on either side unless you are resting orders in the book. So say you have to overcome 3.5 ticks per round trip to break even.

Do you see that and agree, or no?

Break even is now 4 ticks.

I could be missing it, but don't you have to be right almost all of the time and for at least 5 ticks to make 12.50 per trade?

So I came up with multiple reasons why short term trading was for me, but most of the reasons had a great counter reason to not... I think it comes down to personality, some people don't have the stomach to risk for longer time frames. Same reason people only do intra day and others are fine with swing trading and holding positions for days and weeks.

Looking at it, I'm definitely not the person type that could hold the trade for longer time frames, which is why I choose to short term trade.

I don't understand the spread part though but I see your point with slippage when you hit the bid / join the offer and the commissions. And I agree that you pay a portion to break even, and with scalping it's a big chunk of your profits.

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  #22 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
kareem40's Avatar
 
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With exception of news trading, where chart does not really matter, having longer TFs ( 15M+) charts has for sure help my trading/losses. I cannot remember who said it, but it was said that the size of time bar you trade usually equals to your trading experience/work. One minute = one year, etc....

With that said, I have seen very good money made on 15 second as well as daily charts! Whatever works for you I guess.

Good trading,

K

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  #23 (permalink)
San Jose, CA
 
Experience: None
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ALC77 View Post
I am attempting to scalp the ES for 1 tick at a time. I am using YM as a correlation to ES. I don't use charts at all. I am only using Jigsaw DOMs of ES and YM side by side (John Grady style) with a time and sales of the ES. I am trying to not be like the typical retail trader so that's why I am not using charts or indicators. I am trying to trade what I see right NOW like I hear so many successful people talk about. I have journaled and figured out my biggest problem, but I don't know how to solve it. I keep getting the direction wrong in the immediate term. I see it's going up with volume, I go long, get filled, and then much more often than not, I get ran over for 2+ ticks if I can't get out in time. What can I add or do differently to make it over the hump with the biggest problem area for me? I know the YM is a great correlation but is moving much faster than ES makes it very difficult for me to keep it all in perspective. I'm getting tired of seeing red, day after day.

Hi Alcc77,

You have been provided a ton of good advice. There are plenty of ways to trade if you want to be a scalper. I think we all started off thinking of being scalpers, I know I did. Not wanting to risk money, and imagining getting rich quick. Not saying you're that type. There is certainly a ton to learn in trading, just be careful what you do, you don't want to damage yourself before you get going. Just remember you are going to have failure after failure until you even begin to see a glimpse of light. Once you see the light you will fall again and the cycle repeats. It's a dark tunnel of shit. Some people swear by the 15 min and 60. Others trade the 1 min in conjunction with another chart, I know you're a dom trader. Perhaps a dom in conjunction with a chart might help. Just remember whatever you do, you need to believe deep down in the core of your heart and mind. In this game, you need to be a follower, not a leader. The big money leads in all time, tick, etc there's no noise. Good luck on your journey.

Failing and anxiety are apart of learning something new. If you fail, get back up and push through the pain, and itís okay to be uncomfortable.
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  #24 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,186 since Aug 2011
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hey...

It is hard to advise because I don't know what you are doing in the first place.

Are you scalping because your deposit won't allow carry?

If so, and I don't want to be a dolt, it will be very difficult to sustain even very modest drawdown in the most competitive market in the world.

The price or tick correlation of these two products over the scalp time frame is spurious. It does not mean anything. IMO trying to trade with just a DOM and a T/S is like trying to read a book by only looking at the pictures...especially when there are algos running with the express purpose of trying to spoof other algos about what orders have standing in the book.

You can create a statistical model then pair your order type in the DOM to link your target and your stop....in other words cast them simultaneously, one cancels the other. A basic and viable stats model can be constructed in Excel in a day using historical data.

If you want to stop seeing red, stop doing what you are doing. If you want to talk about specifics, you can share. If I have any insight I'll try to share it in an encouraging way...if I don't have anything I wont make shit up.

I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

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  #25 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES,
 
MiniP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,101 since May 2017
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wldman View Post

I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

Some of the realest shit ever said

can learn a lot from that one statement

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #26 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker: S5 / Rithmic
Trading: Various
 
Posts: 38 since Jun 2019
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akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.



I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.



I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.



Yes same. Iím on the journey with Jigsaw and doing those drills is really useful. 63% hit rate in my case with the cut and reverse scenario and almost 90% with the 1 tick drill.

I think the 1 tick drill is designed to recover from losses on the day and peel back some pain in certain situations. For example it works well in thick defined ranges but once price moves away then youíre more into positional trading.


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  #27 (permalink)
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Jigsaw
Broker: AMP Futures, CQG data
Trading: none
 
Posts: 52 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 158 given, 26 received


akuush View Post
@ALC77 When I did the 1 tick drill with JigS, I had some days ending with net profit but most of the days were losers. Peter does mention that this can't be converted into a strategy. This is only a drill to get experience under your belt and train your eyes on watching the JigS DOM. I did like the Cut and Reverse drill, it helped me to come over my short term trading psychology and to stay in trades for longer.

I think you can still make it out as a short term trader(scalper) but would need atleast a 1:1 Risk to Reward ratio initially. I have heard interviews with traders on ChatWithTraders that they scalp short term and do just fine. Goes back to what your trading style is and where you are comfortable.

I give a week to a new concept and stick to it for the entire week and then analyze the net results at the end. At the moment, I watch out for aggressive buyers or sellers, hitting with large order(50+) on the tape mostly around previous highs and lows on a tick chart, and scalp a few ticks 3-8.

Thank you. This is very helpful information. Sounds like I definitely need to do the cut and reverse drill. I tried to get ahold of the original cut and reverse drill video that Guy Bowers had on his YouTube site. I couldn't find it so I contacted him a few months ago and he said that he removed it and now charges for it since it's in his current training materials. I will go back to Jigsaw Member's section and watch the one Peter did.

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  #28 (permalink)
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Jigsaw
Broker: AMP Futures, CQG data
Trading: none
 
Posts: 52 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 158 given, 26 received


wldman View Post
I don't want you to try that...I want you to find what works for you.

I guess a better question for me to ask you is why scalp? Why try to compete in the most difficult arena possible?

There is a fair amount to overcome. Trade expenses and spread for example. For me, on ES. If I give up the spread its minimum 2 ticks. I have a fractional tick in commissions and fees. Say conservatively I give up 2.5 ticks to the spread and trade related costs. It is fair to expect at least 1 tick in slippage on either side unless you are resting orders in the book. So say you have to overcome 3.5 ticks per round trip to break even.

Do you see that and agree, or no?

Break even is now 4 ticks.

I could be missing it, but don't you have to be right almost all of the time and for at least 5 ticks to make 12.50 per trade?

The reason I want to scalp is that it seems to fit my personality:

(1) I don't like a lot of risk. The longer you are in a trade the more of a chance of an "unplanned event" = more risk.

(2) It seems like it would be easier to get smaller bits of profit vs waiting hours for a larger move that may never come.

(3) More occurrences = more practice time. More occurrences will desensitize a person from the "thrill" of trading. I want to remove or minimize my emotions from trading.

If you are having to spend 3.5 ticks round trip to break even then that is NOT the broker for a scalper. Scalpers MUST have a round trip rate at below the cost of 1 tick of the instrument they are trading. For instance: Tradefutures4less.com (A Stage 5 Trading company) charges $3.38 for a round trip on the ES as their HIGHEST rate. Their rates can go as low as $2.90 for a round trip on the ES, based on volume. ($12.50 - $3.38 = $9.12 profit per tick). Yes, having resting orders in the book is mostly how I trade, so there is no slippage for me. I either get filled or I don't.


Last edited by ALC77; August 7th, 2019 at 11:54 PM.
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  #29 (permalink)
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Jigsaw
Broker: AMP Futures, CQG data
Trading: none
 
Posts: 52 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 158 given, 26 received


MiniP View Post
about 50% of my trades are all 1:1.. all the trades I took today were 1:1

The biggest factor to this is making sure you cut losers when signaled out.

I wouldn't define my self as a scalper but I'm defiantly very short term

-P

Can I ask what you use to determine what the immediate direction is before you enter a trade?

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The following user says Thank You to ALC77 for this post:
 
  #30 (permalink)
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Jigsaw
Broker: AMP Futures, CQG data
Trading: none
 
Posts: 52 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 158 given, 26 received



wldman View Post
I dont want to sound harsh, because to some degree every trade is a guess, but I think you need to make better guesses.

-Dan

Well, that was the point of the post - I need something that I don't currently have to help me make better guesses. I finally pulled up a live chart this week on investing.com (Jigsaw doesn't have charts) and I seemed to do a bit better using that for a bit of perspective. It seems that I can only see the leaves and not the trees while just watching the DOMs. I changed to 2 ticks profit target with 2 ticks stop (1:1 ratio that another person mentioned) and I had a green day! I'll take that - that's more progress than I've had. I just know there was no point in trying 1 tick profit target with a 1 tick stop, so that's why I started with 1 tick profit target with a 2 tick stop.

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