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VWAP for stock index futures trading?


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VWAP for stock index futures trading?

  #81 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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Silvester17 View Post
indeed.

but you know I had to make a smart remark. otherwise @srgtroy would be really disappointed

anyway I just replicated his chart. but I have no clue what the logic behind is.

Now I understand.

OK, Roy, what's the logic then? Inquiring minds want to know.

Bob.

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  #82 (permalink)
 brakkar 
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bobwest View Post
@brakkar, with all the noise and dust raised in some of these discussions, have you had your original question answered to your satisfaction?

I feel things got substantially off-target, although I believe they came back near the end. I feel a little sorry for getting into some of it, and I wish I had just thought to post the charts I put up a few posts back a little sooner. I think they make clear the way that VWAP can help frame the day's price action. The tactics a trader would need to take to make use of VWAP and its bands are up to each trader, who will probably have his own ideas, but they do show real things happening in the market, and can let a trader get a better handle on what is going on.

Also, VWAP is one tool of many. Some traders use it, some do not. You can't use everything, after all.

I hope some of this has been helpful to you.

Bob.

@bobwest
Certainly, this discussion shows a positive bias in using vwap, which was what I wanted to get the feel from the community.
Thanks to all those that answered. New to futures trading and this community I'm not disappointed.

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  #83 (permalink)
 Number 1 
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JonnyBoy View Post
VWAP is the ONLY moving average you need on your chart. The VWAP is a key measure of execution quality for large orders used by institutional investors. There is no playing down its importance.

There is so much more to VWAP. Some traders either don't know or have undervalued its importance. It goes way beyond the VWAP for the current day. You can use static historical VWAPs, historical rolling VWAPs, static ETH VWAPs, rolling ETH VWAPs, a developing VWAPs pinned to a swing high or swing low as key reference points. You can determine a VWAP test, a VWAP cross, a VWAP reversion and of course you can apply these to the STD DEV of VWAP too. And so much more!

I agree. In my own personal experience, I seen that VWAP alone can be used to trade provided one has a well defined strategy or a set of strategies with objective rules attached to it. For historical vwap multiday vwap, weekly and monthlies make a great addition. I've also found out that when you tie a vwap to a swing high or low, it becomes very, very useful. I also find that vwap compliments market/price profile very well.

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  #84 (permalink)
 
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bobwest View Post
Now I understand.

OK, Roy, what's the logic then? Inquiring minds want to know.

Bob.

@SMCJB just said he would like to be able to see Average(DailyVwap, 20) so I charted it. It might have taken me 4 minutes less than I said, though

R.I.P. Roy Goldberg (srgtroy), 1965-2023.
Please visit [url="https://nexusfi.com/off-topic/60226-srgtroy-r-i-p-brotha.html[/url] for more information.
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  #85 (permalink)
 
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 Fat Tails 
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SMCJB View Post
I've always been surprised VWAP isn't more available, to the extent I'm a little surprised exchanges don't publish official VWAP numbers.
The problem is it's actually not. It's easy to put on a real time chart but that's the only way it can be calculated. If I pull up a CL daily chart how do I add the the 20 day average of the VWAP? I can't because the only way to know the VWAP is to have calculated it already. Sure I could actually have 20 days of 1 min buys and estimate the VWAP for each day from that. But what about when I'm pulling 10 years of daily bars to perform some calculations? I can calculate most (all?) indicators, but not the VWAP.

Maybe I'm in the minority but in several of the threads I follow @centaurer has, sorry had, been a nice addition. I don't know what he's said in other threads, or what his alts have said, but I didn't think he was that out of line in this thread.


Answering your question:

There are two classes of VWAPs, anchored VWAPs and rolling VWAPs. You may easily calculate them for 10 years provided that you have minute data over that period.


Anchored VWAPs:

The anchored VWAP typically refers to a session. A daily VWAP has an anchor point at the start of the trading day. Consider the VWAP as basket that contains all trades. In the morning there are only a few trades and the VWAP is still volatility. During the day the basket gradually fills and the VWAP becomes more and more stable as new trades added will not move it as much as in the morning.

In the end of the day the VWAP is just the volume weighted average price of the day. It is a benchmark for last institutions and traders. You may front run the algorithms of those traders in the end of the day, when they try to achieve or to beat the benchmark.


Rolling VWAPs:

The concept here is different. You wish to know the volume weighted average of all trades of a moving window. The rolling VWAP is never reset, but every minute new trades are added to the basket while old trades are dropping out. You would just define the length of the window, for example 20 days. Technically when you are calculating a rolling VWAP there is a number of issues to deal with:

(a) Resolution: I have found that it is sufficient to recalculate it once per minute to get it accurate to subtick levels.

(b) Holiday problem: It is not easy to deal with holidays with an early close (CME). When you follow the concept with the moving window and you have a holiday with an early close at 1:00 PM all the trades of the period N days ago will drop out all of a sudden when the session reopens the next day. This will show as a discontinuity on your chart. To avoid that discontinuity it is best to extend the lookback period by adding the hours missed to the lookback period.

(c) When calculating a VWAP over a longer period of time, you need to deal with the rollover question. You need to use merged contracts for getting proper volume figures. However, many NinjaTrader has false rollover days preset for many instruments. This means that you will find low volume days simply because the false contract month has been charted. Therefore the first task is to adjust the rollover days such that the most liquid futures contract is displayed for the day session. The second problem is the offset. Let us take 3 different cases:

CL: monthly rolls. permanent contango over years known as Cushing contango
FDAX: quartery rolls, index future based on total return index, positive rollover offsets as long as interest rates for government bonds remain positive
ES: quarterly rolls, index future based on price index, smaller rollover offsets as impact of interest rates is balanced by dividends

CL is clearly the least suited for longer term VWAP calculations. The contract has monthly rolls and the ever positive rollover offsets between 2008 - 2013 and 2015 - 2017 distort all charts showing record highs of over $140 in May 2011 (real prices did not reach $ 115). I would say that a 10 year VWAP for CL is meaningless. ON the other hand, a futures contracts such as ES that only rolls once per quarter and has smaller rollover offests is much better suited for applying a longer term VWAP.


But coming back to your questions:

A 20 day rolling VWAP does not suffer at all from rollover offsets. You may calculate it from minute data.

Please find below the 20 day rolling VWAP for CL. It is calculated from 1-minute data and takes 10 seconds to calculate for the last 10 years.



This is the annual (anchored) VWAP for ES. You will immediately notice that prices have reached the last year's average price in the beginning of February.

Since mid-April this year's VWAP has passed the prior year's VWAP, which shows that money is still flowing into the stock markets.


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  #86 (permalink)
 maverhick 
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JonnyBoy View Post
I agree that VWAP is just a tool. I certainly wouldn't fall on a sword and say that I only trade VWAP (because that isn't true), but I have incorporated it into my trading and my algorithms.

When I look at the market I want to see the structure exactly as every other trader sees it. VWAP allows me to do that because it is identical for every other trader on the planet. The dynamics of the market might be different every time VWAP is visited, but that is for the trader to determine.

I have attached my chart from yesterday as a case in point. The trade entries shown are generated as part of my custom algorithms. They take into account the structure of the market from many different aspects including price and volume relationship to VWAP.

The RTH VWAP is the green / red hashed line. The thin solid blue lines are standard deviation bands +1 +2 +3 and -1, -2 and -3 of RTH VWAP

ETH VWAP is the magenta / blue hashed line.

Trade 1 - an early pullback to VWAP generating a long pullback trade. Yes, not an exact touch of VWAP but close enough.

Trade 2 - a long volume stop entry launch from VWAP SD-1

Trade 3 - a long pullback and launch from VWAP SD+1

Trade 4 - a long pullback and launch from VWAP SD+2. Keep tight profits as nearing yVAH.

Trade 5 - a short pullback (below SD+1 and below yesterday's RTH rolling VWAP [dashed pink line] so expect a test of RTH VWAP.

Trade 6 - a short pullback but as sandwiched in between RTH and ETH VWAP you should skip this or reverse position if you are wrong.

Trade 7 - a long pullback launch from rolling vwap from yesterday. Target would be a test of VWAP SD+1 which it did.

Trade 8 - a short pullback from VWAP SD+1, expecting a re-test of RTH VWAP.

Trade 9 - Ugly location but a failed attempt to re-test RTH VWAP without a small correction first.

Trade 10 - Under both VWAPS (RTH & ETH) and a re-test of both of them coinciding with the RTH IB HIGH test for a volume stop / pullback short.

After that the market just gyrated around probably due to OPEX, so no VWAP associated trades.




Bumping up an old post - I found this conversation around VWAP very interesting and also the way you analyze your trades. Do you suggest any good resources to read up on VWAP and the nuances of trading using it as one of the tools in the arsenal.

Thanks!

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  #87 (permalink)
 
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maverhick View Post
Bumping up an old post - I found this conversation around VWAP very interesting and also the way you analyze your trades. Do you suggest any good resources to read up on VWAP and the nuances of trading using it as one of the tools in the arsenal.

Thanks!

There are plenty of “trading” videos on YouTube about VWAP, but most, if not all of them are useless. This also includes the hundreds of websites and forums that essentially just repeat the same thing. Much of it is click bait. None of it is informative.

In short, there are very few worthwhile sources regarding VWAP.

I have a suite of VWAP setups, but you need to discover these for yourself. This means hundreds, if not thousands of hours spent in front of your chart not looking at anything else.

This is the chart from yesterday. The setups are obvious (to me anyway), but in hindsight it's easy to say that. The skill is to be able to recognise them in real time.

Oh and one more very important note. Never, ever pay anybody a dime to learn about VWAP. Anybody selling information about trading VWAP IMO is out for one thing, your money.


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  #88 (permalink)
 maverhick 
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Thanks for responding. I did post my response here after having seen a few of those videos and found that they barely added any value. Your approach seems far more well derived and researched.

That said, you've spent 1000s of hours on the screen and derived them - would simply ask that if you are so inclined, do suggest a newbie a direction / book or anything that would avoid my wasting some serious no of hours on things of no value

Have a great day!





JonnyBoy View Post
There are plenty of “trading” videos on YouTube about VWAP, but most, if not all of them are useless. This also includes the hundreds of websites and forums that essentially just repeat the same thing. Much of it is click bait. None of it is informative.

In short, there are very few worthwhile sources regarding VWAP.

I have a suite of VWAP setups, but you need to discover these for yourself. This means hundreds, if not thousands of hours spent in front of your chart not looking at anything else.

This is the chart from yesterday. The setups are obvious (to me anyway), but in hindsight it's easy to say that. The skill is to be able to recognise them in real time.

Oh and one more very important note. Never, ever pay anybody a dime to learn about VWAP. Anybody selling information about trading VWAP IMO is out for one thing, your money.



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  #89 (permalink)
 
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maverhick View Post
Thanks for responding. I did post my response here after having seen a few of those videos and found that they barely added any value. Your approach seems far more well derived and researched.

That said, you've spent 1000s of hours on the screen and derived them - would simply ask that if you are so inclined, do suggest a newbie a direction / book or anything that would avoid my wasting some serious no of hours on things of no value

Have a great day!

As far as I know there are no books or great resources to tap into. You will however probably stumble across one particular vendor who is selling a VWAP course online. I find this excruciating. I guess he has found a gap in the market that he is trying to leverage.

I would start by encompassing your VWAP (and the 1,2 and 3 standard deviations of) with a +/- 0.25 standard deviation band. You can see these in my screen shot in the prior post, each VWAP line is enveloped. It is what happens within this "band" that is the key.

The four main setups are:

VWAP: A test from above / below
SD BAND: Standard deviation continuation
VWAP: Reversion to VWAP
VWAP: Crossing of VWAP

You need to be looking at what price does within these bands. Is price stalling? Is price continuing or reverting? Is price testing?

The VWAP will look the same on every single traders chart, but your choice of time frame is key here.

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  #90 (permalink)
 maverhick 
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Thanks. Do you scan for volatility? Does the setup work better in higher volatility environments vis a vis a low volatility environment?



JonnyBoy View Post
As far as I know there are no books or great resources to tap into. You will however probably stumble across one particular vendor who is selling a VWAP course online. I find this excruciating. I guess he has found a gap in the market that he is trying to leverage.

I would start by encompassing your VWAP (and the 1,2 and 3 standard deviations of) with a +/- 0.25 standard deviation band. You can see these in my screen shot in the prior post, each VWAP line is enveloped. It is what happens within this "band" that is the key.

The four main setups are:

VWAP: A test from above / below
SD BAND: Standard deviation continuation
VWAP: Reversion to VWAP
VWAP: Crossing of VWAP

You need to be looking at what price does within these bands. Is price stalling? Is price continuing or reverting? Is price testing?

The VWAP will look the same on every single traders chart, but your choice of time frame is key here.


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