Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade - futures io
futures io futures trading



Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated by snax
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one snax with 14 posts (5 thanks)
    2. looks_two piilgard with 6 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Anagami with 3 posts (3 thanks)
    4. looks_4 TraderTS with 3 posts (3 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one achoo58 with 4.0 thanks per post
    2. looks_two ArthurKathleen with 4.0 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 mbondiett with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 snax with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 2,889 views
    2. thumb_up 34 thanks given
    3. group 10 followers
    1. forum 34 replies
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade

  #1 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: MYM, MES, YM, ES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,134 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4,763 given, 4,124 received

Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade

Greetings,

I would like to learn and improve my ability to analyze and dissect my bad trades. I am hoping to learn how to create better set-ups for my trades moving forward.

This morning I felt really good about the /ESH9 with all the hopeful news of trade talks between U.S. and China, plus the market seemed to be recovering from a downward trend overnight.

The market began to look bullish this morning, and as you can see from the screenshot, there was a big buy-in at ~7:15am CST, which got reversed very quickly. I saw the following dip and thought 2716.50 looked like a strong spot to go long, expecting the bullish trend to continue. I was patient and clear-headed. The price struggled a bit to get down that low, but once it hit I thought it had a good chance to bump up to around 2718.75 and beyond.

I went long 1 contract at 2716.50 at ~7:15am CST and it felt like a good trade, but as you can see from the screenshot (edit: this is only my 2nd post so I can't link images until my 5th), it has entered a new trading-range and my timing was poor, doesn't matter if it rallies big today now, I'm out. Stopped out for an 8-tick loss at ~7:45am CST.

My questions are:

0) Did this seem like a reasonable trading opportunity?
1) I am getting squeezed a lot these days between tight stop-losses and volatile price-oscillations, one thought I've had is cutting my allowed number of losing trades in half and doubling my stop-loss width on the trades I make...that actually may have helped here, time will tell.
2) What types of set-up strategy could I have used to time this better? Did I just see something in random market noise that wasn't really there? I am not using many technical indicators or stuff like DOM (I don't think my platform even has DOM tools, I've looked). I've tried setting up Bollinger-Bands with Fast Stochastic Oscillator and things like that but it just seemed to add noise without benefit. I don't think they would have helped here but I am a beginner so I am probably wrong on many layers.

Any help is appreciated, apologies for any typos and inability to post links, etc.

Cheers,
snax



EDIT: having image-sharing issues since this is only my second post, but you need 5 posts to share images.


Last edited by snax; February 11th, 2019 at 09:50 AM.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Convert NinjaTrader NT7 indicator to Tradestation EasyLanguage and RADARSCREEN
Platforms and Indicators
Issue meeting order entry conditions
Elite Automated NinjaTrader Trading
Last 5 minutes Label
ThinkOrSwim
Moving average with Lag reduction
NinjaTrader
Linux?
ThinkOrSwim
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
129 thanks
What is your single biggest weakness?
93 thanks
Is Volume Profile worth learning or is it an outdated concept?
57 thanks
Is Amp at risk of going under?
41 thanks
Is Orderflow An Outdated Concept?
30 thanks
 
  #3 (permalink)
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: NQ
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 771 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 504 given, 1,630 received



snax View Post

My questions are:

0) Did this seem like a reasonable trading opportunity?

You have to find your edge first, and know exactly what it is.

Without that, you will just endlessly end up second-guessing yourself.

If you are not clear about what your edge is, you don't have one.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: MYM, MES, YM, ES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,134 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4,763 given, 4,124 received

Thank you for your thoughtful reply, Anagami.

I would like to be able to measure my 'edge' probabilistically/mathematically, do you feel you have a rigorous definition of your edge that consistently proves to be (mostly) true? This is an avenue I wish to explore next.

Thank you,
snax

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: NQ
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 771 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 504 given, 1,630 received


snax View Post
Thank you for your thoughtful reply, Anagami.

I would like to be able to measure my 'edge' probabilistically/mathematically, do you feel you have a rigorous definition of your edge that consistently proves to be (mostly) true? This is an avenue I wish to explore next.

Thank you,
snax

You are welcome, my friend.

There are two components:
1. What identifies an edge being present
2. The mathematical expectation of trading that edge

The more specific #1 is, the more meaningful #2 becomes.

#1 needs to be objective, but need not be algorithmic... in fact, I think it better not be! (...as algo trading, particularly short term, is super saturated).

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #6 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: MYM, MES, YM, ES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,134 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4,763 given, 4,124 received

Ahh thank you again. This search for an edge seems to be the next huge obstacle for me, I saw this but didn't want to admit that I would be looking for something so elusive. I hope I find my way.

Cheers!
snax

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
  #7 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: MYM, MES, YM, ES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,134 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4,763 given, 4,124 received

in hind-sight some factors contributing to this poor trade were:

1 - thinking i'd seen a favorable set-up based on price-movement that had worked for me in the past but did not exhibit the same behavior as in previous trades. I wanted to believe my intuition was correct.
2 - looking at the pattern and thinking 8-ticks was too far for it to drop in the current conditions.

This type of thinking won't scale because things are always going to look favorable, I need to find the other factors.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
the coin hunter
virginia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Trading: NQ
 
cory's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,994 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 830 given, 7,819 received


snax View Post
in hind-sight some factors contributing to this poor trade were:

1 - thinking i'd seen a favorable set-up based on price-movement that had worked for me in the past but did not exhibit the same behavior as in previous trades. I wanted to believe my intuition was correct.
2 - looking at the pattern and thinking 8-ticks was too far for it to drop in the current conditions.

This type of thinking won't scale because things are always going to look favorable, I need to find the other factors.

you make 5 posts try to post image again.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cory for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: MYM, MES, YM, ES
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,134 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4,763 given, 4,124 received

Thank you for the reminder, Cory


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: NQ
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 771 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 504 given, 1,630 received



snax View Post
Thank you for the reminder, Cory


A question for you: Had the the trade worked out, would you have considered it a 'good' trade? In other words, are you evaluating individual trades in terms of their outcomes?

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:



futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade




Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Understanding Order Flow Stop Runs & Icebergs w/Bookmap

May 28
 

Free BloodHound Licenses to everyone!

June
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts