Lost & losing hope - futures io
futures io



Lost & losing hope


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one xevanchan with 19 posts (54 thanks)
    2. looks_two bobwest with 11 posts (72 thanks)
    3. looks_3 kazz with 9 posts (6 thanks)
    4. looks_4 MiniP with 8 posts (44 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one JonnyBoy with 10.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two bobwest with 6.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 MiniP with 5.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 xevanchan with 2.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 33,117 views
    2. thumb_up 669 thanks given
    3. group 102 followers
    1. forum 207 posts
    2. attach_file 32 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Lost & losing hope

(login for full post details)
  #101 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


chartmojo2 View Post
Chin up. There is nothing easy about trading. In the markets take a long time to learn. They say it takes 10,000 hours to master something. Think of a pro golfer. How many swings does a golfer put in before turning pro. How many practice swings do they put in ever after a pro. How many trades did you do before going live? In the markets you are up against pro's. Your paying to compete against them. Would you pay to compete against a pro golfer or poker player of Chess grand master. One really has to put in the time to learn and then practice practice practice on a great real time sim program w live data that keeps track of all your stats. Practice till you are consistently profitable and you have tweaked it until you cant get a better % profitable and win rate. Get your order execution to the instant intuitive point. Then ease into real time live $ trading. You are up against a.i.'s, algo's, elite pro gamer types, Chess Grand Master types that have 20,000 games in memory etc they are 14 moves ahead of you..(trades). People jump into trading live way to early and do not really understand what they are up against. Chess grand masters will admit they see the board, the pieces differently over time and differently that everyone else. Same with great traders. Your story is really the story of most traders unfortunately. It does take time and commitment ability etc. fascination and obsession. Think of it as getting a PHd, or becoming a golf pro. It does not come easy by any means. The best you can have is an edge and the win losses are randomly distributed with in the probabilities of the "edge". You could get all the losses up front even with the best strategy. One has to come to grips and really get that down to your core. Machines have no problem with it. That should lead one to if x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. As Bruce Kovner master trader put it.."imagine different scenarios, take the one that confirms."..if one gets that on a deep level you can begin to get around the 100 or so cognitive bias's we have that conspire to keep us from trading effectively. Sorry for rambling ..maybe there is something in there for you. Good luck.

With all due respect, I think you are over stating how difficult it is to trade. You don't need to put in 10,000 hours to be profitable. Maybe to become a master of the craft.

This 10,000 hours to learn a craft is often quoted bit the truth is everyone is different. Some learn quickly, some never learn sadly. You can be profitable trading in far fewer hours than that. Just my 2p.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kazz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #102 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


maxmeier View Post
Hello xevanchan,
let me give you some hints. Sorry for my bad english.
Trading must be simple like driving a car. Intuitive and "easy".
I'm trading 2 ES contracts on my $30k AMP Futures account since 4 years now.

1. Choose only one simple setup for example support/resist. This is the only setup that will always work.
Remove every indicator from the chart. Switch to bar chart.
Check the day chart and draw a line for each support and resistence which you see.
Switch to 60 Minute and identify again support and resistance.
Switch to 15 Minute and identify again support and resistance.
Use 5 or 3 Minute chart and 5000 Volume chart to find optimal entry. You will see the entrys for sure.
In a trend buy each support, in a sidway market buy low sell high (at support/resist).
Trade only one setup for at least 66 days. Focus on only one setup. No back and forth no quick changes. Trade only one setup.

Go back one hundert days and check the win rate of your setup by manually identifying your signal by reading the chart for at least 500 trades. Only then you will trust your setup.
Trade one setup and take each identified signal (which matches your predefined rules).

2. At day end check each trade and find out what was wrong and adapt for the future but stick to your only one setup.
After a few weeks you will see.

SL must be greated then the (5) ATR on 5/3 minutes chart.
I'm mostly using 4 point stop and 8 points target (trailing).
I always trade only 2 ES contracts. Means my maximum loss per trade is always the same.
Your winners must be greater than your losers.

I would recomend VWAP Indicator and 300 EMA if you want.
I have the best Mentor (30 years of trading).

After you become a master trader in your one setup then and only then add a second setup or double the contract size.

Simplicity and focus is the key.

Thanks, this is a fantastic post full of good advice. Focussing on one set up and keeping your risk small is great advice for anyone starting including myself.

Hope you don't mind me asking but what sort of ROI do you get on a monthly basis trading 2 contracts? Thanks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kazz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #103 (permalink)
 bopwillie 
Nashville Tennessee/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: CL, ES, NQ, GC
 
Posts: 33 since May 2012
Thanks: 8 given, 49 received


xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post ( I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

. . . life's failures are people [like you and me] who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up. I believe Al B means well for all traders. The gent that told you to throw Al in the g-can probably should have said, "Al B is not my trading methodology." Staying out of chop is critical. One way I've found is to have trading chart, let's say the YM on ticks correlated with a 5 min chart. I multiply those ticks x 5 and us that chart as my "trending" chart - stay with the overall trend of the slower chart. E.g. YM 5 min = say 1500 tick chart. 1500 x 5 = 7500. Don't go against the 7500 chart. Also, TOS/TheoTrade has a fascinating indicator called the RSI Laguerre. Primarily I used this indicator to show me when the market is gaining strength and about to move - after that, Al B price action. I hear your cries for help. Best wishes.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bopwillie for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #104 (permalink)
 thevfutio 
Houston, Texas
 
Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, 6E
 
Posts: 7 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 1,204 given, 6 received


xevanchan View Post
Yeah you're right. Must be the psych. I have just under 400 live trades with varying contract size. 61% win rate overall with a ton of different strategies.

Wow, 60% wins, 400 trades, proven, backed by facts.

Concerned about expected profits from stats in another thread (catastrophic-loss-days).

Win) 2 to 6 ticks
Loss) 8 to 12 ticks, so

Best_ Case) 6:8 = 3:4 win/loss, but
Worst Case) 2:12 = 1:6 win/loss

Expected _Best) 60%*3 - 40%*4 == 3*3 - 2*4 = 9 - 8 = +1 tick, expected best case
Expected Worst) 60%*1 - 40%*6 == 3*1 - 2*6 = 3 - 12 = -9 ticks, expected worst case

If this stuff is even close to being correct, then you are nearer to consistent profitability than you think.

The enemy: size of expected profits vs. expected losses (+1 vs. -9)

Hoping that eventually you kick that enemy in to the curb!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to thevfutio for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #105 (permalink)
 steven2 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Trading: Emini
 
Posts: 28 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 37 given, 22 received


xevanchan View Post
One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I have also tried to trade H2's and L2's (Al B), and seeing trades not set up properly, to get into obvious bad trades. I think there are two solutions to this, while sticking to rules:

1. Look at different time domains (5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 60 min) for intraday signals. Quite a few H2's should set up
2. Stick to one TF, e.g. 5 min, and watch 3-4 instruments (uncorrelated hopefully, e.g. oil, gold, emini)

** another way to avoid chop is to look for two legged PB to EMA, as Al Brooks says in one of his best videos he says this is the best setup for people starting out, and if you don't get enough trades, u can move to multi-instrument monitoring

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to steven2 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #106 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
phantomtrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 357 since May 2011
Thanks: 107 given, 615 received

You might consider analyzing your trades from a different perspective. I've attached a few jpgs which describes how I see one of your trades.

This is what I see:
1. You're getting backticked to death! Your stop is on the same bar as your entry price on the 7500 Volume bar chart.
2. Your momentum indicators are short, not long.
3. A simple volume up/down indicator (which I show on the chart) would tell you that volume is starting to go negative.
4. Nothing on your chart is telling you what the market is really doing - you're expecting the market to move up because the previous bar candle was up (I'm making an assumption here based on your other trades). That might work in a strong trend, but trading to the upside previous to your trade was choppy and weak - not much of a trend there.

You need to incorporate some type of order flow information to your decision making. I know Jigsaw is hard to read on the ES because it moves so fast. But there are other alternatives like the VolumeDelta indicator from ninZa.co. At the very least, you guesstimate who's in control or if the market is just floundering around - which is really what it was doing when you entered that long. Just based on the order flow, you wouldn't have entered that long.

7500 Volume bars are huge for the ES. Given the volatility and backticking even on slow days, you need to look inside the bar you're trading - one of the jpgs is a 1 minute chart showing the same elements of your trade. Even a simple Volume Up/Down indicator would have given you more information.

Trading is about information. Forget your indicators and setup rules for a while and try to concentrate on what the market is doing. Go over 100 random trades on market replay and analyze them in depth using some form of volume/order flow information. Look at your trades on different chart sizes - down to the second even. I would wager that you could have avoided at least half of those stopped-out trades just observing the order flow.

The reality is (at least my opinion of it is) that no one can trade these markets today without order flow information. How you get it and how you use it is up to you. It's a steep learning curve but it can only add solid information to your existing trading plan.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	OrderFlow1.PNG
Views:	201
Size:	230.4 KB
ID:	261603   Click image for larger version

Name:	OrderFlow2.PNG
Views:	177
Size:	261.5 KB
ID:	261604   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (1 Min)  1_15_2019.jpg
Views:	162
Size:	172.0 KB
ID:	261605   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (7500 Volume)  1_15_2019.jpg
Views:	152
Size:	198.6 KB
ID:	261606  
Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to phantomtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #107 (permalink)
 maxmeier 
Frankfurt
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: FDAX
 
Posts: 11 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 31 received


kazz View Post
Thanks, this is a fantastic post full of good advice. Focussing on one set up and keeping your risk small is great advice for anyone starting including myself.

Hope you don't mind me asking but what sort of ROI do you get on a monthly basis trading 2 contracts? Thanks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Well I'm not checking this numbers as long I'm in profit.
But calculation is very simple.
I'm making 4,5 points on average (because of losses) per contract and I'm only trading 3 days a week, about 12 days in a month
so 4,5 points x $50 x 2 contracts x 12 days =
sometimes less but sometimes much more :-)

But the important thing is to stop focusing on money!
It sounds strange because we are doing this for money but it's all about points only. Is about perfection and simplicity.
Money is not a target but a "door opener" it is only needed to cover the margin and allows us to trade.
But at month end I'm also happy then about the outcome (money) :-)

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to maxmeier for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #108 (permalink)
 bopwillie 
Nashville Tennessee/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: CL, ES, NQ, GC
 
Posts: 33 since May 2012
Thanks: 8 given, 49 received

Steven, using tick or volume, I try to use two charts : my trading chart for YM is set at 1500. My parent parent is set at 7500 with EMA's 20 and 8. Don't disobey your parents - they know better.

Re: limit or market, as you watch the candles form on your faster chart, I use a 75% rule. If the candle closes at least 75% or better of the total length of the candle, I use it as an entry if all else is in good order - the parent approves of the direction.

Best of luck to ya.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #109 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Trading: NQ
 
cory's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,042 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 854 given, 7,911 received


maxmeier View Post
...

But the important thing is to stop focusing on money!
...

this is the right thing to do but it's the hard thing to do.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to cory for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #110 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: Stock Index Futures / CFDs
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 608 given, 1,957 received


cory View Post
this is the right thing to do but it's the hard thing to do.

Now we are getting to the real stuff.

I recall Van Tharp identifying the belief that "money is NOT important" as the #1 trait of successful traders. (...implying the opposite belief is a major barrier to success...)

To focus on making money is to put tremendous pressure on yourself, it messes you up real good.

So how do you actually get away from that?

Off the top of my head, the Sedona Method (Hale Dwoskin) comes to mind. It has 5 ways of releasing... they all work from different angles.

Personally, the most powerful belief in my toolbox is that the Universe always provides for me. This is a potent antidote to greed, insecurity, and anxiety about money. It sets me free while trading... which makes a huge difference. My security is NOT on the line with every trade or even a series of trades.

So the real questions are:
  • how do I trade free?
  • How do I trade happy?
  • How do I enjoy trading regardless of immediate results?

The answer is simple: one's gotta do it out of a good place within.

A place of abundance, not a place of lack.

Trading out of lack creates more lack.
Trading out of abundance creates more abundance.


And this is not some mystical new age mumbo-jumbo. This is just solid psychology. Winning the game before you even begin. Operating out of a place of strength and clarity, instead of weakness and lack.

How many traders out there trade out of the fullness, abundance, and joy within? Less than 5%? 2%? Ah... beginning to understand the success / failure stats.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #111 (permalink)
 teekay 
Tri State Area
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS, NT7
Trading: es cl
 
Posts: 29 since Mar 2018
Thanks: 9 given, 4 received

Hi, Where did you find that dynamic SR lines indicator? Very interested!

loantelligence View Post
Looks like you are getting a lot of good replys…. as you can see there are as many ways to trade as there are traders...everyone has their own techniques....so you have to find yours...
One of the things I notice...is that you described Scalping stops yet you are using a long term bar (7500 volume)...I have seen people use the long term bar but your stops have to reflect that otherwise you are going to get stopped out all the time....as you have discovered...you also need to know if the crowd is with you or against you (order Flow/Delta) are buyers coming in or are sellers coming in....you are also trying to use a breakout techique….but you don't have anything to show a breakout....you end up trading in the chop....I took the 15th ES and added some indicators to show you buyers/sellers (GOMcd) and breakout areas (SR_Dynamic color bars) using your 7500 volume...maybe you can see when to trade...there were 4 trades that day....you were trying to trade in chop...just an example...of adding order flow/Delta...you had a trade at 9:36, 10:00, 11:42 and 14:24

[ATTACH]Attachment 261554[/ATTACH]Attachment 261553


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #112 (permalink)
 mmatlios 
Ohrid Macedonia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP Futures, CQG
Trading: Currency Futures
 
Posts: 8 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 8 received

From what I can see immediately you are using market orders for entry. Try limit orders instead. You may have to modify your entry critera but it is well worth it. This way you prevent slippage, chasing the market.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #113 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


maxmeier View Post
Well I'm not checking this numbers as long I'm in profit.
But calculation is very simple.
I'm making 4,5 points on average (because of losses) per contract and I'm only trading 3 days a week, about 12 days in a month
so 4,5 points x $50 x 2 contracts x 12 days =
sometimes less but sometimes much more :-)

But the important thing is to stop focusing on money!
It sounds strange because we are doing this for money but it's all about points only. Is about perfection and simplicity.
Money is not a target but a "door opener" it is only needed to cover the margin and allows us to trade.
But at month end I'm also happy then about the outcome (money) :-)

Thanks for your transparency and honesty, it's much appreciated.

Is there a particular reason why you only trade 3 days a week if you are day trading? Thanks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #114 (permalink)
 maxmeier 
Frankfurt
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: FDAX
 
Posts: 11 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 31 received


kazz View Post
Thanks for your transparency and honesty, it's much appreciated.

Is there a particular reason why you only trade 3 days a week if you are day trading? Thanks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I'm trading to have more freedom and more free time.
Why should I trade more?
To make more money?
Well as I said money should not be the main target.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to maxmeier for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #115 (permalink)
 Angelo1 
Adelaide Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja > MC
Broker: AMPs
Trading: ES
 
Angelo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 145 since May 2011
Thanks: 1,859 given, 76 received


maxmeier View Post
Hello xevanchan,
let me give you some hints. Sorry for my bad english.
Trading must be simple like driving a car. Intuitive and "easy".
I'm trading 2 ES contracts on my $30k AMP Futures account since 4 years now.

1. Choose only one simple setup for example support/resist. This is the only setup that will always work.
Remove every indicator from the chart. Switch to bar chart.
Check the day chart and draw a line for each support and resistence which you see.
Switch to 60 Minute and identify again support and resistance.
Switch to 15 Minute and identify again support and resistance.
Use 5 or 3 Minute chart and 5000 Volume chart to find optimal entry. You will see the entrys for sure.
In a trend buy each support, in a sidway market buy low sell high (at support/resist).
Trade only one setup for at least 66 days. Focus on only one setup. No back and forth no quick changes. Trade only one setup.

Go back one hundert days and check the win rate of your setup by manually identifying your signal by reading the chart for at least 500 trades. Only then you will trust your setup.
Trade one setup and take each identified signal (which matches your predefined rules).

2. At day end check each trade and find out what was wrong and adapt for the future but stick to your only one setup.
After a few weeks you will see.

SL must be greated then the (5) ATR on 5/3 minutes chart.
I'm mostly using 4 point stop and 8 points target (trailing).
I always trade only 2 ES contracts. Means my maximum loss per trade is always the same.
Your winners must be greater than your losers.

I would recomend VWAP Indicator and 300 EMA if you want.
I have the best Mentor (30 years of trading).

After you become a master trader in your one setup then and only then add a second setup or double the contract size.

Simplicity and focus is the key.

HEllo @maxmeier
would you care to share a chart with a summary of your method
for those of us that do not have access to a 30 year mentor,
one thing that has always stunned me is the talent on this forum YET who knows how many members are never able to make it as profitable traders when i have read time and time again there is NO substitute for a hands on mentor and there seem to be enough replying to just this thread alone, why is there no thread for mentoring, perhaps i should start one, who knows maybe a % of future profit scheme would be a nice way to repay the privileged opportunity,

anyway to the OP i have nothing to add that hasn't been said better other than it doesn't take years if you have a mentor but will if you do not have a structured process as some have advised you regardless of what type of chart you use AND hope you take up the mentoring offers you have on this thread
i'm bewildered as to why it was posted to ME & who knows maybe the entire forum

safe trading all

"If you believe you CAN, OR believe you CAN'T, you're RIGHT!"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #116 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,350 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,486 given, 12,940 received


Angelo1 View Post
why is there no thread for mentoring, perhaps i should start one, who knows maybe a % of future profit scheme would be a nice way to repay the privileged opportunity,

If you put the keyword 'mentor' into the search box you will see that there are plenty of threads on the subject.

The % of profits promise in the future in exchange for free mentoring now sounds like a good idea on paper, but think about it: if the large majority of people trading don't make it, what would be the mentor's incentive to take up students, most of whom will turn out to be a waste of time for him/her?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #117 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


Anagami View Post
And this is not some mystical new age mumbo-jumbo. This is just solid psychology. Winning the game before you even begin. Operating out of a place of strength and clarity, instead of weakness and lack.

How many traders out there trade out of the fullness, abundance, and joy within? Less than 5%? 2%? Ah... beginning to understand the success / failure stats.

So what would be so bad about mystical new age mumbo-jumbo?

Take what works.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #118 (permalink)
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 
Posts: 442 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 256 given, 371 received


Angelo1 View Post
one thing that has always stunned me is the talent on this forum YET who knows how many members are never able to make it as profitable traders when i have read time and time again there is NO substitute for a hands on mentor and there seem to be enough replying to just this thread alone, why is there no thread for mentoring, perhaps i should start one, who knows maybe a % of future profit scheme would be a nice way to repay the privileged opportunity,

Paying forward?
I actually have been thinking and planning about "traveling mentor" one-on-one to newbies for FREE during four months in the summer that I do not trade--first destination would be Florida, USA.


Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TraderTS for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #119 (permalink)
 Angelo1 
Adelaide Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja > MC
Broker: AMPs
Trading: ES
 
Angelo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 145 since May 2011
Thanks: 1,859 given, 76 received


xplorer View Post
If you put the keyword 'mentor' into the search box you will see that there are plenty of threads on the subject.

The % of profits promise in the future in exchange for free mentoring now sounds like a good idea on paper, but think about it: if the large majority of people trading don't make it, what would be the mentor's incentive to take up students, most of whom will turn out to be a waste of time for him/her?

I think the point of a "mentor" is firstly his process is profitable and is successful in his process to train someone to BECOME profitable, otherwise he shouldn't be called a mentor that said a forum would soon separate the real from the false. by means of recommendations from successful prodigies,
a potential prodigy will be able to present his case of why he would be worth training. and so on, may not be for everyone but why it hasn't been considered other than the many many bloggers and internet gurus claiming to train you where you become a number, in a forum such as this it could become a reverse pyramid,,,

1 teaches 1 then 2 teach 2 etc,

"If you believe you CAN, OR believe you CAN'T, you're RIGHT!"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Angelo1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #120 (permalink)
 Angelo1 
Adelaide Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja > MC
Broker: AMPs
Trading: ES
 
Angelo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 145 since May 2011
Thanks: 1,859 given, 76 received


TraderTS View Post
Paying forward?
I actually have been thinking and planning about "traveling mentor" one-on-one to newbies for FREE during four months in the summer that I do not trade--first destination would be Florida, USA.

Hi TraderTS thanks !
yes paying it forward, great words,
are you offering mentoring to people in the Florida region?? doesn't help me unless you are up for skyping or such, then as a potential prodigy my quest is are you profitable and what would the criteria be for a match between the two parties such as, scalper vrs swing to name one, etc

"If you believe you CAN, OR believe you CAN'T, you're RIGHT!"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #121 (permalink)
 xplorer 
Site Moderator
London UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker: S5
Trading: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,350 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 13,486 given, 12,940 received


Angelo1 View Post
I think the point of a "mentor" is firstly his process is profitable and is successful in his process to train someone to BECOME profitable, otherwise he shouldn't be called a mentor that said a forum would soon separate the real from the false. by means of recommendations from successful prodigies,
a potential prodigy will be able to present his case of why he would be worth training. and so on, may not be for everyone but why it hasn't been considered other than the many many bloggers and internet gurus claiming to train you where you become a number, in a forum such as this it could become a reverse pyramid,,,

1 teaches 1 then 2 teach 2 etc,

I could spend a considerable amount of time explaining why, IMO, the above is not easily feasible but I have a feeling that it would not be good advice for you.

Plus, who knows, you may be right. You can always start a mentoring thread as you suggested. How about adding a framework where mentees wanting to make their case do so in a structured manner.

Good luck.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #122 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: Stock Index Futures / CFDs
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 608 given, 1,957 received


bobwest View Post
So what would be so bad about mystical new age mumbo-jumbo?

Take what works.

Bob.

If it works, then it's not mumbo-jumbo, at least not in my book (or yours). We agree.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #123 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: Stock Index Futures / CFDs
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 608 given, 1,957 received


xplorer View Post
I could spend a considerable amount of time explaining why, IMO, the above is not easily feasible but I have a feeling that it would not be good advice for you.

Plus, who knows, you may be right. You can always start a mentoring thread as you suggested. How about adding a framework where mentees wanting to make their case do so in a structured manner.

Good luck.

This whole forum is a 'mentoring thread'.

Having traded with several other people over the years, I found it was impossible to stay on the same page. Trading is an intensely individual thing.

Even 'Turtles', the legendary system traders, all got difference results... using the 'same' method.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #124 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received

Regarding mentoring:


xplorer View Post
I could spend a considerable amount of time explaining why, IMO, the above is not easily feasible but I have a feeling that it would not be good advice for you.


Anagami View Post
This whole forum is a 'mentoring thread'.

Having traded with several other people over the years, I found it was impossible to stay on the same page. Trading is an intensely individual thing.

Even 'Turtles', the legendary system traders, all got difference results... using the 'same' method.

I think this is the thing about mentoring, as well as taking advice and even learning from someone else, including from all these posts in this thread: trading is very individual, and so is learning it.

I have tried to follow other peoples' advice or methods, and had very limited success. When I learned something from them, it turned out that I ended up doing something that was very different from the original. I believe this is because, as many have said, it really is very individual and you're just not going to do "the original."

The originator of the Turtles system, the extremely successful trader Richard Dennis, famously said that he could publish his exact method on the pages of the Wall Street Journal with no concern about others copying it, because no one would follow it as he did. On the other hand, he also coined the term "turtles" because he thought that anyone could be taught how to trade profitably, and that he could grow traders "like turtles." I think these two viewpoints are slightly in conflict.

When he chose a number of would-be traders to train, as @Anagami said, even with Dennis bankrolling them and giving them the entire system, and even with it being a mechanical, no-judgment system, the turtles still got different results.

This variance was explained by saying that "some didn't really follow the system," which I am sure is true, and is also the point.

No one follows another person's system. They may fail or they may succeed, but either way they will have changed the system to conform to their own understanding and individual perspective.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #125 (permalink)
 Torcap 
Athens+Greece
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ThinkorSwim,IB
Broker: InteractiveBrokers,ThinkorSwim
Trading: Gold GC
 
Torcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 5 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 9 received


xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post ( I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

Hi bro ,

I know it is hard but you should never give up.
Keep going.
If its hard losing money , turn to paper trading for a while.
I have been trading since I was 21 and after 9 years (30 now) I'm barely making a living .
I don't care. I am determined to eventually make money no matter what it takes.
I have spent countless hours , I have seen pretty much everyone in the industry , joined seminars , went through classes , tried every strategy out there , won a lot of money , lost a lot of money , blew out accounts .

Everyone is different and what might works for me or for someone else might be total garbage to you ,
but the one thing we all have in common is how our brains are wired to accept new information .

Our brains are designed to only being able to handle a few tasks at a time .
You need to keep it simple.
Avoid distractions at any cost. Turn off the tv.
Focus on your strategy totally and write down every single trade.

I realized after all these years that the simpler I kept it and the less distractions I have the better I do .
Even this site right now is a distraction (kidding ).

but in all seriousness , you have to turn everything off , tv , twitter , other traders , trust yourself , work your strategy like a fucking maniac , and don't be like this doesn't work and jumping onto the next big thing and you will be fine.

Good luck from me.

Kostas

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Torcap for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #126 (permalink)
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 
Posts: 442 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 256 given, 371 received


Angelo1 View Post
Hi TraderTS thanks !
yes paying it forward, great words,
are you offering mentoring to people in the Florida region?? doesn't help me unless you are up for skyping or such, then as a potential prodigy my quest is are you profitable and what would the criteria be for a match between the two parties such as, scalper vrs swing to name one, etc

First thing first,
Yep, prefer Miami, or Orlando, FL.
Sorry but you are not qualify--don't think you are a newbie!
You can look me up for my journal thread that already posted dealing with the above questions.
Long story short, my specialty is "Swing" trades on both sides using 1440M, 240M and 60M charts, especially for Rollover process and during Financial crisis.

iTS


Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #127 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Trading: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 52 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 67 received


kazz View Post
With all due respect, I think you are over stating how difficult it is to trade. You don't need to put in 10,000 hours to be profitable. Maybe to become a master of the craft.

This 10,000 hours to learn a craft is often quoted bit the truth is everyone is different. Some learn quickly, some never learn sadly. You can be profitable trading in far fewer hours than that. Just my 2p.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

With all due respect you are a beginer so i very much doubt that you are consistently profitable and not eligible to give advice on how long it takes.
In fact the 10,000 hours needs to be at least double or triple to even stand a chance of making it. it is very very very difficult.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fxfutures1976 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #128 (permalink)
 maxmeier 
Frankfurt
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: FDAX
 
Posts: 11 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 31 received


Angelo1 View Post
HEllo @maxmeier
would you care to share a chart with a summary of your method
for those of us that do not have access to a 30 year mentor,
one thing that has always stunned me is the talent on this forum YET who knows how many members are never able to make it as profitable traders when i have read time and time again there is NO substitute for a hands on mentor and there seem to be enough replying to just this thread alone, why is there no thread for mentoring, perhaps i should start one, who knows maybe a % of future profit scheme would be a nice way to repay the privileged opportunity,

anyway to the OP i have nothing to add that hasn't been said better other than it doesn't take years if you have a mentor but will if you do not have a structured process as some have advised you regardless of what type of chart you use AND hope you take up the mentoring offers you have on this thread
i'm bewildered as to why it was posted to ME & who knows maybe the entire forum

safe trading all

Sorry, I have signed a non disclosure agreement. I can't share anything.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to maxmeier for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #129 (permalink)
 Angelo1 
Adelaide Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja > MC
Broker: AMPs
Trading: ES
 
Angelo1's Avatar
 
Posts: 145 since May 2011
Thanks: 1,859 given, 76 received


maxmeier View Post
Sorry, I have signed a non disclosure agreement. I can't share anything.

Hahaha ok thank you,,

Then perhaps you are one of the best qualified to respond to all the people posting opinions about the topic of mentoring who have never had hands on mentoring like you,

i clearly have an opinion also but have not read about many people who have not succeeded when mentored one on one, as opposed to the commonly used Turtle method when it was provided as a recipe or instruction, the nuances that are required to bake the cake exactly like the originator will add so much more than can be written, that even he is unaware of unless in the process of making or baking the product.

Safe trading Angelo

"If you believe you CAN, OR believe you CAN'T, you're RIGHT!"
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #130 (permalink)
 madhuram 
Vadodara + Gujarat/India
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: E-Signal - TrueData
Trading: Crude Oil, NIFTY, BANKNIFTY
 
Posts: 5 since Jul 2018
Thanks: 6 given, 26 received

Hello xevanchan,

I am more qualified to share that i am also in the same boat. In my three year journey, i've lost money for the first two years, and in the third year i've applied brakes to the loosing ride by understanding myself and analyzing the mistakes i am been making.

Some of the things that came to light were:
  1. I have fear of missing out
  2. I used to have a gambler's attitude. I generally used to go all in after winning small profits.
  3. I never used to understand the markets and ask the question WHY the market moves
  4. I started to shift my entire focus on trading and making losses everyday. I needed to take a break and should have focused on other areas.

I also had lost hope, but my newly born baby girl has been the source of inspiration and she is teaching me everyday that not to give up. It's ok to fall, but the most important thing is to rise again.

One of the first thing i started doing is i took a break for 6 weeks. Took my family out and focused more on them and other areas of life like (working on the business idea, learning to cook food, washing/helping for home chores).

In this process, i started to understand that markets are designed the way that you would loose money. It's all part of the game.

I started to learn volume profile, market profile, support, resistance identification and currently doing SIM trades.

I also developed a 5 year plan which is more like a map to achieve my financial freedom.

It easily guides me that if i make a mistake or loss, where i have to start again.

I would request you to set some guidelines first.

Next is don't make trading as the only thing in your life. Go out and do voluntary work, help others, socialize, read, drink water more (no alcohol), eat right, go for a vacation to Bali or Vietnam or Thailand or India (2 weeks is pretty good to explore a country. I can help you if you plan for India,)

Lastly, we are all playing single player game in life. So ensure not to loose hope, and keep on getting up.

Regards,
madhuram (aka maddy)

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to madhuram for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #131 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

This is strictly my personal opinion, through my own experience.

Stop trading futures.

There have been plenty of studies on how it's a 50/50 chance every trade. Technicals are worthless as the markets are pure random.

Check out tasty trade.

Put some context around risk, and let the math work out.

Once you build your account size to over ~100k, then you can scalp a few ticks or add some static delta.

Otherwise, quit putting yourself through the misery.

In my opinion, if you have some taste for some risk, sell some far 10-20 delta OTM 45day calls or puts.

Good luck out there!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #132 (permalink)
 Fluid Fox 
Legendary Crypto Investor
Bangor, Maine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 
Posts: 608 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 2,529 given, 2,489 received

Can you send me those studies?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #133 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Silicon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #134 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: Stock Index Futures / CFDs
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 608 given, 1,957 received


Silicon View Post

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

I agree with you 99.9% of the time. But, there is that 0.1% of the time when the markets are not efficient to the point when even a retail trader can spot it. Not exactly a high frequency incidence... but a significant one... from a retail perspective.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #135 (permalink)
 Fluid Fox 
Legendary Crypto Investor
Bangor, Maine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 
Posts: 608 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 2,529 given, 2,489 received


Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

What's your take on options trading?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #136 (permalink)
 MiniP 
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES,
 
MiniP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,142 since May 2017
Thanks: 1,102 given, 2,898 received


Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

no edge in a retail trader? lets see.

* does not have to get permission to trade an idea
* can trade what he/she wants
* has the chance of keeping a small overhead
* does not have the stress of big banks and other large intuitions


there are tons of individuals on this forum who benefit from trading from a retail stand point,

trade often? unless you are a HFT a retail trader should be taking less positions

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MiniP for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #137 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Im struggling to see how those give you a credible edge.

Volatility has a proven history of reverting to the mean(edge).

Another good argument would be, well since markets are so efficient, there is no arbitrage(edge) opportunity, which makes for a zero sum game.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #138 (permalink)
 Fluid Fox 
Legendary Crypto Investor
Bangor, Maine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 
Posts: 608 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 2,529 given, 2,489 received

So the retail futures traders that apparently have edge, are in reality, just lucky?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #139 (permalink)
 MiniP 
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES,
 
MiniP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,142 since May 2017
Thanks: 1,102 given, 2,898 received


Zachary Standley View Post
So the retail futures traders that apparently have edge, are in reality, just lucky?

there will always be a little luck in this game but the whole idea is how to get some luck on your side its that simple no one knows where the market is going.

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #140 (permalink)
 Salao 
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Trading: ES (MES), MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 854 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,487 given, 3,499 received


Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

Yeeeeeeaaah...selling premium is way safer than trading futures? With all due respect my friend...the question isn't whether or not you will nuke your account, the question is when. Be safe.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #141 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Correct me if I'm wrong, but dont futures products have the highest leverage?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #142 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage - Philip Capital
Trading: NQ,ES,6E,CL
 
TradingOgre's Avatar
 
Posts: 550 since Jul 2018
Thanks: 902 given, 1,646 received


Silicon View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong, but dont futures products have the highest leverage?

leverage <> risk

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #143 (permalink)
 Salao 
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Trading: ES (MES), MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 854 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,487 given, 3,499 received

I just re-read my post and it seemed like a personal attack. I didn't mean it like that so I apologize.

As far as I know futures...which is limited...you are correct. But OPTIONS are multidimensional and and most retail have a limited understanding of how they work. I just think it's a bad idea to go on a forum full of retail traders and recommend selling premium.

The point is...be safe.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #144 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Leverage = debt = risk

Maybe notional value is a better way of putting it.

I'm not offended.

You're over complicating options. They're fairly straightforward.

And I disagree, I think it's a great idea to inform people on the subject, and to understand you don't always have to make directional, un-defined risk trades.

Every veteran trader knows everything about the markets, wether it's options, or calendar spreads. Don't sell yourself short by not understanding everything the markets have to offer

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silicon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #145 (permalink)
 oldsaltie 
Seattle+Washington/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Stocks, ETFs
 
oldsaltie's Avatar
 
Posts: 3 since Nov 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Xevancha

I’ve mentored a lot of traders over the years and what you’re experiencing is not uncommon. Here is some of the biggest and usual culprits. First, most traders NEVER realize how synced their performance is to general market movement and volatility. Most usually do fairly well during strong directional markets / trends and increasing volatility but struggle when the market is going sideways or against what they are trading (unless future or stock has a specific exogenous catalyst). And struggle when the VIX is falling or below 20. This demonstrates, in essence, a ‘market model’ which most don’t’ have and could benefit from. Marty Zweig and Ned Davis both wrote some good books about various market models / market timing.

Second, most trade the hard pennies (ranges, choppy trends, difficult contracting patterns, etc.) instead of the easy dollars (strong trends, identifiable trends, obvious turning points). Prices consistently cycle between expansion and contraction. The time to be aggressive is during expansion and cautious during contraction. One must look for this on multiple time frames. Also, they take large / high risk breakout entries / wait for maximum confirmation instead smaller risk pullback entries or aggressive trend line / range break or range retest entries. Most over trade and trade too large. Position sizes that are too large make discipline extremely difficult and nearly impossible to sit through small, normal lateral consolidations / pullbacks... so they choke the trade.

Third, you don’t need anything fancy just price and volume, some simple trend and range lines. Most people make it unnecessarily complicated. They also jump from strategy to strategy. When I look at your charts I see some very common mistakes. I marked a few up with simple concepts and hope it helps. I also have tons of trades and free educational stuff on my own private website (ZazenCapital.com) maybe it will help or at least give you some ideas. Simple things like retests of swing highs and lows, pullbacks to trend lines offer solid info that can improve your trading. Moving averages can also be helpful tools.

Most I’ve worked with don’t really understand price and trend structures, so they don’t have any idea what they are seeing on the chart. Their focus is so myopic, just on their one little piece of the trade instead of ALL the surrounding context around their “setups”. Additionally, most don’t even come close to having a REAL trading plan or even a specifically defined setup / repeatable methodology. Not a single trader I’ve worked with, no matter how ‘together’ they thought they were, came to me with a clear ‘If / then” setup, trading plan or market model.

Now obviously I’m not saying you make any of these mistakes. Just pointing out common ones I’ve observed that hinder performance…. and hoping some of this info helps. Best of luck ;-P

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (7500 Volume Heiken-Ashi) 2019_01_16 (11_15_13 AM) Feedback.png
Views:	209
Size:	109.0 KB
ID:	261650   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 2019_01_15  Feedback.png
Views:	184
Size:	154.8 KB
ID:	261651   Click image for larger version

Name:	Range Feedback.png
Views:	172
Size:	162.9 KB
ID:	261652  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #146 (permalink)
bloom
Russia
 
 
Posts: 473 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 47 given, 583 received

What you got is what you deserve. This is tough business. Welcome
This is WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE to be successfull trader. 75% of this MASTHAVE

I bet you cant play this game. Also you cant manage your Emotions and mind. This is why you failed. Lesson to learn.
You need to cover Order Flow and Psychological stuff to succeed in this game.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #147 (permalink)
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 
Posts: 442 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 256 given, 371 received


OldSaltie View Post
Third, you don’t need anything fancy just price and volume, some simple trend and range lines. Most people make it unnecessarily complicated. They also jump from strategy to strategy.


bobwest View Post
There's nothing wrong with not going Elite, but that's why it's there.
---------------
Basically, understand that everyone goes through exactly what you are experiencing. You can find help and support, and I hope that just knowing you're not alone is a help also.

I was "YOU" ten years ago, but sadly... I didn't even know about FIO aka BMT forum back then to find help and support.
You are not alone, Old Saltie already has given you an excellent technique to start learning and Bob already suggested many reasons why you should become an Elite member. Just be able to download some of the indicators from @Fat Tails would save you half the time requires to do homework because E-Mini tends to back-fill, test, and retest key levels.

Over the holidays, I have been thinking about my new game plans as well as "Actionable Journal" after
listening to this link from Futures Radio Show with topic "Trading Volatile Markets - Morad Askar aka FuturesTrader71".
https://futuresradioshow.com/podcast/ms49/?utm_source=Futures+Radio&utm_campaign...9956&mc_eid=%5BUNIQID%5D

Algo or HFT programs are running at more than 80% in NYSE session... whole different GAME now... new NORMAL is NOT normal... not to mention about "Artificial Intelligence in Markets". Think not only Volatility but EXTREME Volatility!

You are the only one who can decide to continue or not, but know that if you continue then you are at the beginning of the journey, so give yourself time to learn.
If you ask FuturesTrader71, how long does it take to be profitable ES Trader? He would say it takes 5 years... the same number of years that a pro-Trader told me during my first year; I didn't really believe it then but I do now.

Speaking of homework, here are my new "Actionable Journal" and couple charts to show how the Bears lost their battle with 2592 Line In The Sand.
Just to show "less is more" and "trade it & forget it" from RTH 30M Chart for a SwingL2535; interesting where it stopped at EOD with 2677.75 as HOD.
Could be a decent pullback as Crude Oil is rolling over to March contracts, huh?


Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	AlgosSetup.Daily.Summary.2MON_2019-01-14.png
Views:	151
Size:	91.0 KB
ID:	261661   Click image for larger version

Name:	AlgosSetup.Daily.Summary.3TUE_2019-01-15.png
Views:	130
Size:	139.4 KB
ID:	261662   Click image for larger version

Name:	AlgosSetup.Daily.Summary.4WED_2019-01-16.png
Views:	102
Size:	128.8 KB
ID:	261663   Click image for larger version

Name:	#1.1 revInDay.W03TUE.@9amET.reTestedONL=pb61%L2582T2609 ES 03-19 (10 Minute) 2019_01_15 (9_35_54.png
Views:	160
Size:	211.2 KB
ID:	261665   Click image for larger version

Name:	#1.0 revInDay.W03TUE.iPullback61%L2582T2609!hit=$TP.ES 03-19 (10 Minute) 2019_01_15 (11_57_16 AM.png
Views:	138
Size:	188.3 KB
ID:	261666   Click image for larger version

Name:	RTH.SwingL2353#buABCT200%2672!hit.ES 03-19 (30 Minute) 2019_01_18 (12_32_54 PM).png
Views:	141
Size:	206.1 KB
ID:	261667  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TraderTS for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #148 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


Fxfutures1976 View Post
With all due respect you are a beginer so i very much doubt that you are consistently profitable and not eligible to give advice on how long it takes.
In fact the 10,000 hours needs to be at least double or triple to even stand a chance of making it. it is very very very difficult.

Thanks. Firstly, I'm not here to get into spats with anyone but if I see something I don't agree with I'll call it out.

You are right, I am a beginner but not sure how you would know that. I'll take it that you made an assumption.

I still don't agree that you need to put in 10,000 to learn how to trade.

Some people can learn to trade very profitably in 1,000 hours. Some can toil away at it for 20,000 hours and still lose money.

In my opinion a beginner needs to learn 2 things:

1. Controlling emotions.

2. Risk managment.

The rest can be learnt over time. However, if you don't master the above 2 then you are scuppered.

I'm sure that there are many profitable traders on this forum who have become very profitable in far less than 10,000 hours.

Trading is difficult, I agree, but let's not over egg the difficulty - it's not like learning nuclear physics for example.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #149 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Trading: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 52 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 67 received


kazz View Post
Thanks. Firstly, I'm not here to get into spats with anyone but if I see something I don't agree with I'll call it out.

You are right, I am a beginner but not sure how you would know that. I'll take it that you made an assumption.

I still don't agree that you need to put in 10,000 to learn how to trade.

Some people can learn to trade very profitably in 1,000 hours. Some can toil away at it for 20,000 hours and still lose money.

In my opinion a beginner needs to learn 2 things:

1. Controlling emotions.

2. Risk managment.

The rest can be learnt over time. However, if you don't master the above 2 then you are scuppered.

I'm sure that there are many profitable traders on this forum who have become very profitable in far less than 10,000 hours.

Trading is difficult, I agree, but let's not over egg the difficulty - it's not like learning nuclear physics for example.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I know that you're a beginner because you have stated that in your description. haha.

Ok, if you believe all that then good luck to you. but prepare for a very long and difficult road ahead.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fxfutures1976 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #150 (permalink)
 MiniP 
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES,
 
MiniP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,142 since May 2017
Thanks: 1,102 given, 2,898 received

this thread is making me lost and losing hope

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to MiniP for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #151 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


Fxfutures1976 View Post
I know that you're a beginner because you have stated that in your description. haha.

Ok, if you believe all that then good luck to you. but prepare for a very long and difficult road ahead.

OK touche, I'll give you that, you did your homework so didn't make an assumption : ) that was an assumption on my part so apologies!

I'm confident that I'll learn this in far less than 10,000 but l like a challenge.

What I am less sure about is whether or not futures is the right arena too learn in. Maybe equities might be better?



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #152 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Trading: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 52 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 67 received


kazz View Post
OK touche, I'll give you that, you did your homework so didn't make an assumption : ) that was an assumption on my part so apologies!

I'm confident that I'll learn this in far less than 10,000 but l like a challenge.

What I am less sure about is whether or not futures is the right arena too learn in. Maybe equities might be better?



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I thought exactly the same as you. I thought i would be consistently profitable within 3 years but it took me about 7 years of pain. Im earning good money now but it was much more difficult than i anticipated.

Im sure there are people who have become consistent traders much quicker than I have, and some it might have taken longer.

The best advice i can give is, Trading as we know is a very emotionally charged business , so if it fits your personality it could take less time to get where you want to be.

I am an impatient person but patients is one of the key things that you need, so I am at a disadvantage.
But I have very good discipline, resilience and insane drive to succeed so when I was doing my bollocks I could dust myself down and keep going.

Figure out your own strong and weak areas of your personality and go from there.

Not sure on equites but I started on forex as you can trade micro lots.when you become more consistent and confident you can trade futures.

Good luck.

also, you never stop learning. Im 13 years in now and still learning and adapting.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fxfutures1976 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #153 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


Fxfutures1976 View Post
I thought exactly the same as you. I thought i would be consistently profitable within 3 years but it took me about 7 years of pain. Im earning good money now but it was much more difficult than i anticipated.

Im sure there are people who have become consistent traders much quicker than I have, and some it might have taken longer.

The best advice i can give is, Trading as we know is a very emotionally charged business , so if it fits your personality it could take less time to get where you want to be.

I am an impatient person but patients is one of the key things that you need, so I am at a disadvantage.
But I have very good discipline, resilience and insane drive to succeed so when I was doing my bollocks I could dust myself down and keep going.

Figure out your own strong and weak areas of your personality and go from there.

Not sure on equites but I started on forex as you can trade micro lots.when you become more consistent and confident you can trade futures.

Good luck.

Thanks mate, great post and plenty of good advice. Unlike some who offer advice you have been there and paid your dues so l do pay attention to what you're saying even if it doesn't come across that away.

Patience is a something i have but my weakness, from a trading perspective, is a tendency to over think things. This leads me to procrastinate and hesitate to pull the trigger.

What I need to do is pick a system and trade it. I need screen time to accumulate the skills and knowledge needed to become profitable.

On your point about trading forex, I have actually decided to focus on spot forex because it offers you the chance to fine tune risk through micro lots. Futures will have to wait.

If you don't mind, can I please ask why you switched from trading forex to trading futures as both offer leverage?

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kazz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #154 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


MiniP View Post
this thread is making me lost and losing hope

-P

Lol.

It's confusing.

It started out in a well-meaning way, in response to a person in a situation everyone finds themselves in at some point. Pretty much all of the contributions have been well-meaning all the way through, with only a few exceptions (people getting into arguments, for instance.)

But it's also become so huge that it's almost impossible to follow or keep track of. It's mostly just different individuals dropping their pet ideas in (I did that too, not complaining, just saying....)

It's become so fragmented I don't know what the upshot of it is. But there certainly is a lot to choose from, which I guess is the value of it.

I hope the thread starter, @xevanchan, has found something he can use. Just one idea can be enough.

Maybe just knowing how many have been there and have come out of it will help. I hope something has shown a way to move ahead, even if it's just the emotional support, which has certainly been huge, and is itself inspiring.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #155 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


bobwest View Post
Lol.

It's confusing.

It started out in a well-meaning way, in response to a person in a situation everyone finds themselves in at some point. Pretty much all of the contributions have been well-meaning all the way through, with only a few exceptions (people getting into arguments, for instance.)

But it's also become so huge that it's almost impossible to follow or keep track of. It's mostly just different individuals dropping their pet ideas in (I did that too, not complaining, just saying....)

It's become so fragmented I don't know what the upshot of it is. But there certainly is a lot to choose from, which I guess is the value of it.

I hope the thread starter, @xevanchan, has found something he can use. Just one idea can be enough.

Maybe just knowing how many have been there and have come out of it will help. I hope something has shown a way to move ahead, even if it's just the emotional support, which has certainly been huge, and is itself inspiring.

Bob.

There's definitely plenty to learn from this thread!

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kazz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #156 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Trading: NQ
 
cory's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,042 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 854 given, 7,911 received


bobwest View Post
Lol.

It's confusing.

...

Bob.

the best post already posted

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to cory for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #157 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


cory View Post
the best post already posted

I pretty much agree.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #158 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,726 received


xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.


Quoting 

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

This looks to be shaping up to be one of the big popular threads of 2019. Here are a few other similar-themed threads from years back that had a lot of input, various thoughts and ideas and all around entertainment also:





That said, OP, you may be at an earlier stage of your journey if going by the "38 steps". So my 2c thoughts on trying to give some opinionated advice in addition to the excellent feedback and comments already posted..


Quoting 
I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

Without knowing the exact numbers and figures, I can only guess having losing trades for three days after being greatly profitable for a week bad enough to be margin called probably means there was overleveraging or averaging down losing trades in those three days trying to make back losses. Some ideas:
- the leverage and risk plan sounds inconsistent here. All the trades should have consistent plan of leveraging. A set % of account risked, a max % loss per trade. Some brokers can do automatic reinforcement of limiting leveraging if asked.
You may need to practice staying consistent even during a losing streak whether in sim, or an instrument that has smaller margin per contract.
- if the loss is getting wider, there should be a plan to stop the trade without averaging down any further. This could mean learning to recognize from the price action that the instrument is now decidedly going the other way.


Quoting 
I took advice on my last post ( I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

I tried heiken-ashi for a month or so in sim years back. I have to agree there can be much lost and not seen that a minute based chart shows. I'd suggest ditching it and going back to 1min or 5min charts. As for Al Brooks, having read his stuff a logn time ago, and also having tried out his live room for several months, I'm sorry to say while his book is good starting information, the material and what he says in the room can be very vague and is missing entry and trade management instruction. Almost like he is "holding back" showing his exact methods of entry or rather he may not be trading live at all some sessions and too much of what I heard either is missing from his book or occasionally contradicts. I'd suggest keeping in mind his basic patterns, but using other learned or created methods for entry and management as he sure won't ever show real proof.. One idea that I really liked about BPA, was the "failures" i.e. if a bpa pattern failed, then price would often capitulate and extend the other way often for "two legs".



Quoting 
My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

- I'd agree the trends are hardly ever clean anymore like examples seen in books. The HFT overrun markets has made the pa far more messy imo. But there is also more volatility so there are still moves that can be traded if one can recognize and have strategies to trade them. Maybe look into how to take entries out of a breakout of a range for days that are more choppy but have enough participation to stay in ranges for a while before breaking out to a new high or low.



Quoting 
One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

- Maybe have a higher time-frame chart (usually about 5x longer) where you can see if the higher time frame is in a trend.
- I'd not worry about trying to get a whole range as you practice. I'm usually fine with letting the market go after I finished taken profit.
- Well, if you're already doing that well with 3 points a day in sim, maybe you just need to recognize what exactly is so different from your sim trading vs. the live one and aim to keep your live trading exactly like your sim.
- Some comments on your pics, just my 2c, good luck:

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (7500 Volume Heiken-Ashi) 2019_01_14 (11_16_34 AM).png
Views:	128
Size:	172.7 KB
ID:	261695   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (7500 Volume Heiken-Ashi) 2019_01_15 (11_16_01 AM).png
Views:	111
Size:	169.2 KB
ID:	261696   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES 03-19 (7500 Volume Heiken-Ashi) 2019_01_16 (11_15_13 AM).png
Views:	94
Size:	104.8 KB
ID:	261697  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Cloudy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #159 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
Thanks: 166 given, 77 received


Cloudy View Post
This looks to be shaping up to be one of the big popular threads of 2019. Here are a few other similar-themed threads from years back that had a lot of input, various thoughts and ideas and all around entertainment also:





That said, OP, you may be at an earlier stage of your journey if going by the "38 steps". So my 2c thoughts on trying to give some opinionated advice in addition to the excellent feedback and comments already posted..



Without knowing the exact numbers and figures, I can only guess having losing trades for three days after being greatly profitable for a week bad enough to be margin called probably means there was overleveraging or averaging down losing trades in those three days trying to make back losses. Some ideas:
- the leverage and risk plan sounds inconsistent here. All the trades should have consistent plan of leveraging. A set % of account risked, a max % loss per trade. Some brokers can do automatic reinforcement of limiting leveraging if asked.
You may need to practice staying consistent even during a losing streak whether in sim, or an instrument that has smaller margin per contract.
- if the loss is getting wider, there should be a plan to stop the trade without averaging down any further. This could mean learning to recognize from the price action that the instrument is now decidedly going the other way.



I tried heiken-ashi for a month or so in sim years back. I have to agree there can be much lost and not seen that a minute based chart shows. I'd suggest ditching it and going back to 1min or 5min charts. As for Al Brooks, having read his stuff a logn time ago, and also having tried out his live room for several months, I'm sorry to say while his book is good starting information, the material and what he says in the room can be very vague and is missing entry and trade management instruction. Almost like he is "holding back" showing his exact methods of entry or rather he may not be trading live at all some sessions and too much of what I heard either is missing from his book or occasionally contradicts. I'd suggest keeping in mind his basic patterns, but using other learned or created methods for entry and management as he sure won't ever show real proof.. One idea that I really liked about BPA, was the "failures" i.e. if a bpa pattern failed, then price would often capitulate and extend the other way often for "two legs".




- I'd agree the trends are hardly ever clean anymore like examples seen in books. The HFT overrun markets has made the pa far more messy imo. But there is also more volatility so there are still moves that can be traded if one can recognize and have strategies to trade them. Maybe look into how to take entries out of a breakout of a range for days that are more choppy but have enough participation to stay in ranges for a while before breaking out to a new high or low.




- Maybe have a higher time-frame chart (usually about 5x longer) where you can see if the higher time frame is in a trend.
- I'd not worry about trying to get a whole range as you practice. I'm usually fine with letting the market go after I finished taken profit.
- Well, if you're already doing that well with 3 points a day in sim, maybe you just need to recognize what exactly is so different from your sim trading vs. the live one and aim to keep your live trading exactly like your sim.
- Some comments on your pics, just my 2c, good luck:

Great post, thanks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kazz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #160 (permalink)
stockbagger
Chicago IL/USA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Jul 2018
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

This is simply my perspective - just an example of how I trade and produce consistent results. (Sometimes that means losing days, getting whipsawed to oblivion, etc.) Just my opinion:

After looking at your entry screenshots, I notice a couple things. Your indicators should be thrown away and replaced with maybe just ATR and some momentum indicator. Your screenshots also show no clear reason to enter any of those trades. I think you need to step back and aim for longer holds, with your ultimate goal of holding a position from the morning, into the close, and even overnight if it keeps going in your favor. You need to start trading off clear support/resistance levels. I trade breakouts, personally, but you could also trade bounces if that's more your personality.

For example, let's look at the ES on 1/15, your first screenshot. My strategy (which I use primarily for Crude Oil futures, but still applies to any market) would have gotten me long on the opening bar, at 2586.5, which was the break of the prior resistance level 90 minutes before the open. I then would have literally sat in that trade most of the day, using a few criteria to judge momentum, and then flipped short at 2:15. That second trade would have stopped out at breakeven according to my trade rules, but that's the general idea.

An ATR indicator is useful for knowing when NOT to get into a trade, which depends on your standard stop loss. If you don't have a standard stop loss amount for each market, that's necessary for success. I would recommend a 4 point (16 tick) stop for the /ES, or $200 per contract. Essentially, don't even place trades when the current volatility can stop you out. Instead, look to place trades in low volatility zones, so that you don't get stopped out early, and can catch the whole move.

Overall, you seem to be haphazardly placing trades without any real reasoning. You should aim to have a completely rule based system for entry and exit, which you should then backtest with something like OnDemand in Thinkorswim, manually going click by click through as many historical days as possible, recording when you would have entered and exited trades in a spreadsheet. This will give you invaluable statistics on your strategy, as well as give you trust. Personally, I track wins/losses for different times of day, largest daily drawdown, longest daily losing streak, on and on. When you have enough trades tracked, in the hundreds or even thousands, you have a good idea of what to expect from the strategy, and it will help you trust it enough to trade through losing streaks, large drawdowns, and strings of negative days.

You need to have rules for every aspect of the trade - entry, stop loss movement, exit, etc.

You can't do the same things over and over and expect different results, so something needs to change. This is just my two cents, but it works for me. (My screenshots used to look like yours as well, and I realized I was trading emotionally/not objectively. A rule based system trumps emotional/instinctive trading in the long run every time.)

Happy to answer any questions you have.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #161 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: Stock Index Futures / CFDs
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 608 given, 1,957 received

Bacon time. No, I don't mean that delicious thing that you fry up with your eggs.

I mean a much needed reality check from Robert L. Bacon:

"The public wants to hit on some simple key, shown by numbers in the past performances, and use this key to get richer and richer... The public believes that if it could only once find that pass performance key, its troubles would be over."

"But that is not the way trading is at all... if the public ever did get wise to the facts of life, the principle of ever-changing cycles of results would move the form away from the public immediately."

"The would-be professional trader must always understand that the form moves away from the public's knowledge."


From Secrets of Professional Turf Betting ('racing' replaced with 'trading'), 1952.

Trading HL2 based on Al Brooks??

Even if something that simplistic was profitable at some point, the market dynamics would quickly negate your edge.

BTW, I remember a post from someone who tested Brooks' HL2 idea mechanically... and he was pissed off when he found out that it was about 50/50. Surprise surprise.

Tough love, baby.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #162 (permalink)
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: emini ES/NQ
 
xevanchan's Avatar
 
Posts: 160 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 173 given, 294 received


MiniP View Post
this thread is making me lost and losing hope

-P

I'm just as lost as from the beginning haha- picking up the tips everyone seems to agree on. Back to sim, back to my old strategy, working well so far.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xevanchan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #163 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


xevanchan View Post
I'm just as lost as from the beginning haha- picking up the tips everyone seems to agree on. Back to sim, back to my old strategy, working well so far.

Yeah, not surprising.

Everyone who has posted has meant to help, but the thing is that you'll have to find what works for you, yourself, and it isn't likely to be what anyone else does. Even if someone thinks they are following someone else's method exactly, they first had to take it into themselves and make it their own, so in that sense it is only theirs, not anyone else's.

Good luck and keep pushing at it.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #164 (permalink)
 MiniP 
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES,
 
MiniP's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,142 since May 2017
Thanks: 1,102 given, 2,898 received


xevanchan View Post
I'm just as lost as from the beginning haha- picking up the tips everyone seems to agree on. Back to sim, back to my old strategy, working well so far.

my father use to say patience is a virtue, I always thought he was full of shit when I was younger now I can see patience is the key to anything in life. I would recommend you just practice patience with everything you do... its hard but its worth the work.

if another human being can do it then so can you

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to MiniP for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #165 (permalink)
spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 83 given, 111 received

Don’t quit! It was at my very breaking point as a trader where I really questioned whether or not I could do this. I decided it’s what I loved and pushed through and that’s when I started winning and becoming good at it! You might be closer than you think so don’t quit!


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to spetscom for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #166 (permalink)
 Alexawl 
FORT LAUDERDALE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8/tradovate
Broker: Ninja Trader
Trading: ES Emini
 
Posts: 18 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 73 given, 18 received


xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.



I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.



I took advice on my last post ( I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.



It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.



My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.



One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.



I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.



In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.




You’re charts look good... definitely not easy to trade with high volatility.. the chopping back and forth can really take you out of a good trade... I like your chart setup, will try it myself... I am still looking for my comfort zone.. I like to use market profile but still have issues with my entries... and stop loss... good luck!


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #167 (permalink)
spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 83 given, 111 received

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #168 (permalink)
 TheBenefactor 
Pensacola FL
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2016


kazz View Post
Thanks for this great post. You've given us all a big reality check. It's just not realistic to trade futures with an account under, say, $25,000.

With a 1% risk that is $250 per trade which gives one realistic breathing space when setting stops.

Would you agree?

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Sorry for the delay in response. Too many other pots on the fire, LOL.

I might have to hire an assistant again . . . anyone looking for part-time work?

1% risk is a relatively common benchmark. Obviously different entities allow different levels.

For an experiment, I tried to trade beginning this year with a separate $2,000 account.

I just had to refund it, LOL. I assume with all the success I have had trading I could easily double the account by now.

Nope. I had the broker limit my losses to $150.00 per day.

The stops overtook the gains.

This is truly an interesting phenomenon since my larger accounts are up nicely this year.

Today I began with a $4,000 loss before turning it into a nicely profitable day. Couldn't have done that with a $2,000 account.

On the larger account I scaled into a long position before the open and profited as the market ran up to close higher.

On a small account would only have been able to trade 1 contract and instead of scaling into a trade would have had to take a quick loss.

On the bigger picture my feeling is that instead of worrying about an actual size account of $25,000, instead trade the way you intend to, method, number of contracts, stop size etc.

Do it first on a simulator.

Don't try to fool the sim. Trade it for real.

Make a note after a while to your greatest drawdown.

Assuming what you do is profitable, then you will need about double your drawdown to begin trading.

Who knows: maybe your drawdown is $2700. If so then you might get away with a $6,000 account because you have kept your risk small.

I know one small trader, Bob, who has an $11,000 account and trades cash, and has not had a losing day since last May.

He is retired so he does not need to make millions but is happy making $100 to $200 dollars per day.

Then he quits.

Took him 4 years of lessons before getting to this level.

So it can be done.

TB

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #169 (permalink)
 suko 
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,316 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 834 given, 1,403 received





TheBenefactor View Post

he does not need to make millions but is happy making $100 to $200 dollars per day.

Then he quits.

TB



"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #170 (permalink)
jigg
singapore
 
 
Posts: 9 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 13 given, 9 received

have you tried journaling every trade in detail then comparing the winners with the losers?

Can you let the winners run a bit more?

Can you cut the losers earlier.

Are you making sure you dont go above 2% risk each trade.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jigg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #171 (permalink)
 TheBenefactor 
Pensacola FL
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2016

After writing my last response I just realized:

I AM A HYPOCRITE

This may upset some "benevolent" traders out there, but when you put on a trade, lets say long,

aren't you hoping that the guy or gal who just took the other side of your trade:

GETS HIS OR HER TEETH KNOCKED OUT?

LOL

I confess. When I trade I want that other person or institution or grandma, to lose every penny in their margin account.

Then, before covering, I want them to borrow every dollar in their childrens' and grandchildrens' college fund, wire it into their broker's accounts and only exit the trade at the exact same time as I do . . . preferably when they have $.50 cents in the account.

This is a zero-sum game and victory goes to the predators and the losers are left to the dung beatles.

Maybe the brief humanity left in our heartless souls is left to proffer advice to some unfortunate situation we hear about in the hope of assuaging our own guilt for making so much money?

I don't know. But I do notice that I usually wind up "trying to help" others after I have had a particularly gratifying trading week.

Friday and Saturday arrives. I count my money. Then I feel guilty.

Or do we help people because we want to keep newbies in the game? Do we want to give them Free advice so they save up more money and lose it again to us professionals?

Something to think about.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #172 (permalink)
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: emini ES/NQ
 
xevanchan's Avatar
 
Posts: 160 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 173 given, 294 received


TheBenefactor View Post
After writing my last response I just realized:

I AM A HYPOCRITE

This may upset some "benevolent" traders out there, but when you put on a trade, lets say long,

aren't you hoping that the guy or gal who just took the other side of your trade:

GETS HIS OR HER TEETH KNOCKED OUT?

LOL

I confess. When I trade I want that other person or institution or grandma, to lose every penny in their margin account.

Then, before covering, I want them to borrow every dollar in their childrens' and grandchildrens' college fund, wire it into their broker's accounts and only exit the trade at the exact same time as I do . . . preferably when they have $.50 cents in the account.

This is a zero-sum game and victory goes to the predators and the losers are left to the dung beatles.

Maybe the brief humanity left in our heartless souls is left to proffer advice to some unfortunate situation we hear about in the hope of assuaging our own guilt for making so much money?

I don't know. But I do notice that I usually wind up "trying to help" others after I have had a particularly gratifying trading week.

Friday and Saturday arrives. I count my money. Then I feel guilty.

Or do we help people because we want to keep newbies in the game? Do we want to give them Free advice so they save up more money and lose it again to us professionals?

Something to think about.

Well damn; Interesting take from "TheBenefactor", lol. Don't think you should feel guilty, but the way I think of it is that everyone can win; everyone is trading different timeframes so maybe the person who took the opposite trade and netted you 3-6 points will cash in 2 weeks later for a gain of 25 points. Who knows? I'm not sure if its even theoretically possible for everyone to win, but it's not that black/white like poker where you are clearly taking from your opponents.

imagine all the people living life in peace
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xevanchan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #173 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


xevanchan View Post
...the way I think of it is that everyone can win; everyone is trading different timeframes so maybe the person who took the opposite trade and netted you 3-6 points will cash in 2 weeks later for a gain of 25 points. Who knows? I'm not sure if its even theoretically possible for everyone to win, but it's not that black/white like poker where you are clearly taking from your opponents.

This is endlessly discussed, between people who want to be optimistic and say "everyone can win" versus those who understand how the account balances are adjusted in CME futures trading, and who therefore know that it is a zero sum game in a literal sense.

If I am long and my instrument closes up, at the end of the day my margin account is credited cash money for the increase. (I don't need to sell for this to happen. I'm just marked to market automatically.) If I had been short, it would be debited. All the credits, exchange-wide, come from money taken from accounts that are debited, exchange-wide. Aside from fees and other costs, it is a literal zero-sum game, exactly like poker. Money just moves around the table.

There is a good reason for this, and that is because it allows "commercials" -- who are in the actual oil business or grain business or stock business or whatever and who are actually going to buy or sell the underlying commodity at delivery date (or settle with cash in the case of indexes)-- to offload their market risk in their actual positions (for example, physical oil that they are going to buy or sell at delivery) by hedging in the futures market, transferring the risk and profit potential to unhedged traders like us, who are willing to accept the risk in return for a potential for profit. The fully hedged guys are insulated from the risk because we take it on, and in return they give up the possible profit from price fluctuations, which is what we are in it for.

The debit that hits the account of a true oil trader (for instance, one who works for a refinery or an oil producer) goes as a credit to the account of a futures-only "oil trader" (who has no oil to buy or sell), who is on the opposite side. So the trader in real oil has a loss in, say, his short futures position when the price of oil goes up, but his actual oil just went up in value because of the price increase. He's net flat between the two, not affected one way or the other by the price change. The unhedged long trader on the other side is net positive. If price had gone the other way, the physical trader (who is short the futures) would still be net flat because his gain in futures would be offset by a decline in value of his physical oil, and the futures-only long trader would be net negative.

You and I are never going to buy or sell millions of dollars of oil at delivery date (at least, I'm not) so we will be closed out well before then. But our taking on the profit or loss from their futures positions is what allows them to hedge their inventory against loss, which is the point of their futures hedge, and in fact the point of the futures market itself. It's a vehicle for facilitating and protecting commercial transactions. It's not only a neat way for us to speculate on price movements, although that is the reason we're in it.

Zero sum does not mean everybody loses, it means some win and some lose. It does not mean the market is predatory, it just means some win and some lose (you can feel predatory -- or victimized -- if you want to; it's got nothing to do with the market, just with you .) It does not mean that long-term traders can't win in the long term even if they lose in the short term (obviously, they can). It does not mean everything is rigged by the big players. It does not mean you're a pessimist. It does not mean anything except the arithmetic of daily marking all accounts to market to realize the daily gains or losses in their positions.

It does not work the same way as stock trading, because stocks are actual assets and futures contracts are not -- they are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a future date, and the market for them works differently. (I know there are traders in oil futures who think they have just bought or sold some oil, but they really haven't. )

I strongly doubt that anything I just wrote will change many opinions on the subject. Somehow, people seem to think "zero-sum" is about the market being cut-throat, and they either don't like that (the optimists) or they do like it because they want to think of themselves as the sharks, the throat-cutters, preying on the losers. It's got nothing to do with either. It's just a factual matter of how the accounts are marked to market, and why this mechanism exists. You should understand what is happening in your own account, and what the market is that you are trading in. But it really isn't either good or bad. It's value-neutral.

But there will still be people who tell me I'm wrong, and will have a big explanation of why, because the whole idea of zero sum feels wrong to them; win-win seems nicer.



Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #174 (permalink)
 TopGunNote 
Legendary Market Wizard
Penetanguishene, Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader-8
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage, Continuum
Trading: ZB, MES, NQ, YM
 
TopGunNote's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 3,349 given, 3,289 received


Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TopGunNote for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #175 (permalink)
 Teflonman 
Memphis Tennesse/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: NQ
 
Teflonman's Avatar
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 3 given, 13 received


Fibbee View Post
One of the turning points in my trading career was buying bloodhound.

Before I continue, I have no relationship or financial interests with them so just take this as one guy offering another guy advice. Bloodhound (programming in general) is very helpful because it allows you the ability to prove and realize that 99% of the indicators and methods you think work, don't.

I've literally Google "best trading strategies" found a bunch of systems... Heikenasi this, macd that, blah blah blah. Built them, tested them.... Complete garbage. However, sometimes, they win. Which is the great trick to fool you into believing in something that has no edge.

This backwards process of taking all the indicators out of the toolbox and trying to build profitable mechanical systems will lead you down the path to realizing that its almost all useless.

Why heikenasi? Why volume bars? Why those colorful squiggly lines on the bottom of your chart?

Until you can prove or disprove that the tools and methods you're using have any sort of reliable value, you're just sitting in front of a different kind of slot machine and some times you win which makes you feel like you're on the right track.

A couple of other pieces of advice are, 1. The only people making consistent money are the brokers and vendors. 2. Your job is to take high risk to reward trades and lean on an edge. 2 to 1.... What a waste of time. 3. There's more important things in life than these colorful lines and flashy numbers, don't get caught up in the glamor. 4. Realize that everyone is selling you something (see 1.), don't buy it unless they have LIVE trackrecords to back it up.

Hope it helps.

May I ask, what is “Bloodhound”
A

TeFLoN
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Teflonman for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #176 (permalink)
 matthew28 
Legendary Elite_Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Beginner
Trading: US Equity Index Futures
 
matthew28's Avatar
 
Posts: 981 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 2,458 given, 1,765 received


Teflonman View Post
May I ask, what is “Bloodhound”
A

https://www.sharkindicators.com/products/bloodhound/

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to matthew28 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #177 (permalink)
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: emini ES/NQ
 
xevanchan's Avatar
 
Posts: 160 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 173 given, 294 received

It's been about 3 months since I wrote this post; thought I would reflect on what I've changed, a lot in part because of the advice in this thread.

Though I primarily trade NQ now, looking back at my charts, my stops were evidently way too tight; I also noticed that I took significantly more trades and definitely still overtraded to an extent. Since then, i've also expanded my timeframe significantly, and gotten rid of heiken-ashi; I felt that they didn't accurately portray bars and limited entry opportunities. Expanded timeframe helped me become more selective with trades, and catch bigger moves. I got rid of almost all indicators; wave trend, stochastic, the lot. They provided me with nothing, and thinking back, I never really even used them; trend identification isn't difficult on a larger timeframe.

I retained EMA and Volume and ATR, just for a sense of the bigger picture, and still find those to be helpful occasionally. The bigger picture- context and reading the price objectively really helped; I used to try to take the same number of trades every day no matter what market conditions were. Developing an entry system also made things a lot easier; having a defined setup makes things a lot less complicated. I started to take away from discretionary trades and started adding rules; I take a lot fewer trades now, but they are better trades. A lot less guesswork involved.

I'm at breakeven now; it feels good to have seen growth. I've come a long way, but have an even longer way to go; I wonder what I'll have changed 3 months from now. Thanks for the help fellas, never thought 10k of you would see this.

imagine all the people living life in peace
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 14 users say Thank You to xevanchan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #178 (permalink)
 vmodus 
Legendary Systematic Algo Trader
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation, MultiCharts
Broker: TS Securities, OANDA
Trading: Energies, Grains, Fixed Income
 
vmodus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,054 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 2,287 given, 2,201 received

@suko
I like you signature. I keep one of his quotes on my monitor: "Discipline equals freedom"

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to vmodus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #179 (permalink)
 futures5959 
Orlando FL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 9 since May 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received


vegas588 View Post
Hi xevanchan

If you are not trading using Order Flow and Volume Profile Analysis tools, then I think you will continue to be lost. I started using these tools and have not looked back since. The market is an auction and knowing where the volume lies, using volume profile analysis and order flow, is the key to deciphering where the market will likely go in the short term. NinjaTrader now has some great tools built-in and I also use OFA (Order Flow Analytics) for trade entry and management. It will take time to learn, but once you see how to use these tools, you will (in my opinion) never use anything else. Most of the indicators out there are just based on price - well that is a very narrow view of the auction process - and will fail to show you what is really happening. Price action is really an indicator of what may happen - kind of like a teaser - but volume analysis is what is actually taking place.

For example, look at the screenshot below. The area where I placed the green line represents an area of "thinner volume." Price will move between areas of thick and thin volume. So, in this case, price moved up and then back down to the thinner volume, where it proceeded to rocket up. I would have placed a long there based on that and look what happened! Straight up. This is just one example, but it shows what I am talking about. Knowing that ahead of time allows me to prepare trades.


I thought the volume profile indicator from NT's order flow+ did not show low/high volume nodes? How were you able to do this? Thanks.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to futures5959 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #180 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,726 received


bobwest View Post
I strongly doubt that anything I just wrote will change many opinions on the subject. Somehow, people seem to think "zero-sum" is about the market being cut-throat, and they either don't like that (the optimists) or they do like it because they want to think of themselves as the sharks, the throat-cutters, preying on the losers. It's got nothing to do with either. It's just a factual matter of how the accounts are marked to market, and why this mechanism exists. You should understand what is happening in your own account, and what the market is that you are trading in. But it really isn't either good or bad. It's value-neutral.

Good summary of institutional and hedging volume in futures. I've come to believe the markets especially futures trading isn't a zero-sum game among retailers either. Retail volume while rising in recent years again, is reportedly only up to 3.5% of total CME volume. (https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/cme-sees-future-small-fry). So I'd think it's far less likely the opposite side of your profitable trade is only some other losing retailer. It could be an institution, bank or firm on a higher time frame. Or an HFT or algo trade on a lower time frame fractal of price action making trades on pullbacks. All of this trying to "iron out" the inefficiencies as the market searches for price. With all the hft front-running going on since this decade, it could very well be competing algos from different firms taking the opposite side of your contracts anyways. So overall, I'd agree it's moreso value-neutral and we retailers pay a price in hefty fees and taxes. May the FTT never come to pass (along) to retailers..

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Cloudy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #181 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


Cloudy View Post
Good summary of institutional and hedging volume in futures. I've come to believe the markets especially futures trading isn't a zero-sum game among retailers either. Retail volume while rising in recent years again, is reportedly only up to 3.5% of total CME volume. (https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/cme-sees-future-small-fry). So I'd think it's far less likely the opposite side of your profitable trade is only some other losing retailer. It could be an institution, bank or firm on a higher time frame. Or an HFT or algo trade on a lower time frame fractal of price action making trades on pullbacks. All of this trying to "iron out" the inefficiencies as the market searches for price. With all the hft front-running going on since this decade, it could very well be competing algos from different firms taking the opposite side of your contracts anyways. So overall, I'd agree it's moreso value-neutral and we retailers pay a price in hefty fees and taxes. May the FTT never come to pass (along) to retailers..

This is a good post, but I'm afraid I didn't get my point across too well. Probably because I'm so long-winded and try to get too detailed instead of just addressing a point.

So let me say it in a briefer way:

At the end of the day (or when I close a trade, whichever comes first), my account receives money if I have a profit, and it loses money if I have a loss. These are real funds. I could actually take out the profit, so long as I left enough for the margin requirement. This happens to everyone else, hedger, institution, HFT, retail, no difference.

The money I get is real funds and is taken out of accounts that have a loss for the day. Or, if I have the loss, the money that is taken from me goes into accounts that have a profit. All the debits equal all the credits, exchange-wide. The money is just being moved around the table.

This is zero-sum.

It's not like some other markets, such as the stock market, where value can increase or decrease with the value of the company.

Sure, the total amount that is on the table can and will change as more is brought in from the outside, or more is taken out, and this will fluctuate. But once funds are on the table, they are just moved around.

Remember, we are not actually trading real oil, nor stock indexes, we are trading contracts on oil and stock indexes. The zero-sum nature of our trading, in aggregate, is a mechanical or, you could say, an accounting matter. It's automatic, applies to all accounts equally, and is just in the nature of the way that futures exchanges are set up.

It's not a matter of good or bad, it's not something to have a preference about, it's not theoretical, it doesn't mean retailers have to lose -- it's just a factual matter of how all futures accounts function. And certainly, some traders can win consistently.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #182 (permalink)
 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,737 received


bobwest View Post
This is a good post, but I'm afraid I didn't get my point across too well. Probably because I'm so long-winded and try to get too detailed instead of just addressing a point.

So let me say it in a briefer way:

At the end of the day (or when I close a trade, whichever comes first), my account receives money if I have a profit, and it loses money if I have a loss. These are real funds. I could actually take out the profit, so long as I left enough for the margin requirement. This happens to everyone else, hedger, institution, HFT, retail, no difference.

The money I get is real funds and is taken out of accounts that have a loss for the day. Or, if I have the loss, the money that is taken from me goes into accounts that have a profit. All the debits equal all the credits, exchange-wide. The money is just being moved around the table.

This is zero-sum.

It's not like some other markets, such as the stock market, where value can increase or decrease with the value of the company.

Sure, the total amount that is on the table can and will change as more is brought in from the outside, or more is taken out, and this will fluctuate. But once funds are on the table, they are just moved around.

Remember, we are not actually trading real oil, nor stock indexes, we are trading contracts on oil and stock indexes. The zero-sum nature of our trading, in aggregate, is a mechanical or, you could say, an accounting matter. It's automatic, applies to all accounts equally, and is just in the nature of the way that futures exchanges are set up.

It's not a matter of good or bad, it's not something to have a preference about, it's not theoretical, it doesn't mean retailers have to lose -- it's just a factual matter of how all futures accounts function. And certainly, some traders can win consistently.

Bob.

I am not sure why the concept of zero sum in the futures market is a struggle for some people to comprehend. You have summarised it here well enough @bobwest, but I know this topic doesn’t really seem to get quashed.

Just like the futures market cannot be oversold or overbought, you still get traders that think it is a real “thing”. The futures markets are specifically designed to ensure that doesn’t happen, this same market efficiency also ensures that it is a zero sum proposition.

Zero sum meaning just that. When all accounts have been settled, there isn’t an odd amount of cash left over in the pot. There is zero left, because all they have done is transfer money from one account to the other. It is as simple as that. It’s just like one big ledger, and at the end of the day its bottom line will always read zero. No exceptions.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #183 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

I do not think it changes the difficulty of trading. However, the whole zero argument is provably false, i.e. that is not necessarily true. Of course, it could be true in most cases but it is not true as a matter-of-fact. In fact, I shown this already. Below is the simple proof:

I buy 1 ES contract at market. An HFT hedges that contract instantly against an ETF/basket of stocks for a profit. Now, I am speculating on the outcome and the HFT has locked in a guarantee profit. They are short 1 ES but long the equivalent at a profit. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 index rises to place my trade in profit. I close it at a profit. Now, on the futures side, all transactions will net to zero. The HFT will appear to have a loss but actually has made a profit off of there futures trading.

If you make the counter argument that zero sum only means all futures trades net to zero then it implies then it is still meaningless to make the zero sum claim because a trader can turn an actual realized profit on a losing futures trade.

You can compare it to a secondary market even like NADEX. Let us imagine there are 3 traders. A bullish trader. A bearish trader. And a market maker. I speculate the market will rally and buy a binary at market and at the same time a bearish trader shorts the same binary. In this case, the market maker/liquidity provider takes both sides of our trade and profits from the spread on each. The market maker is perfectly hedged. I have the diametrical opposite to the other trader. However, there is no competition or "cross-trade" between myself and the other speculator. A similar dynamic is found in futures markets. More over, in this dynamic, the outcome of our profits or loss is completely non determined by any participant. It is wholly determined by where the market closes. This again raises serious question that trading is competitive because none of the participants in this case have any determination of the outcome. Of course, you might be able to make an argument that the only real +EV trade was the market maker/liquidity provider-- however, if you believe that then you shouldn't trade at all, in any case.

Again, please carry on. I do not think it changes the sentiments.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #184 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,450 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 48,912 given, 21,581 received


tpredictor View Post
I do not think it changes the difficulty of trading. ...

I buy 1 ES contract at market. An HFT hedges that contract instantly against an ETF/basket of stocks for a profit. Now, I am speculating on the outcome and the HFT has locked in a guarantee profit. They are short 1 ES but long the equivalent at a profit. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 index rises to place my trade in profit. I close it at a profit. Now, on the futures side, all transactions will net to zero. The HFT will appear to have a loss but actually has made a profit off of there futures trading.

I think we do not have a disagreement. My post was entirely about what the accounting is on the futures side, exclusive of whether hedging against assets outside of the futures market may allow for a net profit or loss that is not within the futures market by itself, although the futures position is a part of it overall.

I agree that actually, whether the futures market is zero sum or not, the issue in the original post is about whether a retail trader can make money in this market, which is another question, and actually whether the futures market is "zero sum" or not is irrelevant to it. I was expanding on a prior post that raised the issue, and probably should not have.

If there is more on this topic, let's take it somewhere else and let the original discussion continue.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #185 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,726 received


bobwest View Post

The money I get is real funds and is taken out of accounts that have a loss for the day. Or, if I have the loss, the money that is taken from me goes into accounts that have a profit. All the debits equal all the credits, exchange-wide. The money is just being moved around the table.

This is zero-sum.

It's not like some other markets, such as the stock market, where value can increase or decrease with the value of the company.

Oh, ok, I see what you mean when taking the futures market as a contained system for the day. In this context I would think a retail trader in profit is taking in funds from the "losses" of a hedge or higher time frame trade of a fund, rather than an outright other retailer. I would think there are also plenty of contracts that are held on a longer time frame overnight so they may not necessarily be losses and could just be offsets or actually making profits from an earlier position days earlier if they were indeed speculative trades and not used as hedges for an external position involving other types of markets.


tpredictor View Post
If you make the counter argument that zero sum only means all futures trades net to zero then it implies then it is still meaningless to make the zero sum claim because a trader can turn an actual realized profit on a losing futures trade.

You can compare it to a secondary market even like NADEX. Let us imagine there are 3 traders. A bullish trader. A bearish trader. And a market maker. I speculate the market will rally and buy a binary at market and at the same time a bearish trader shorts the same binary. In this case, the market maker/liquidity provider takes both sides of our trade and profits from the spread on each. The market maker is perfectly hedged. I have the diametrical opposite to the other trader. However, there is no competition or "cross-trade" between myself and the other speculator. A similar dynamic is found in futures markets. More over, in this dynamic, the outcome of our profits or loss is completely non determined by any participant. It is wholly determined by where the market closes. This again raises serious question that trading is competitive because none of the participants in this case have any determination of the outcome. Of course, you might be able to make an argument that the only real +EV trade was the market maker/liquidity provider-- however, if you believe that then you shouldn't trade at all, in any case.

Again, please carry on. I do not think it changes the sentiments.

I tend to still lean toward this being an overall-overlapping context of different market types or strategies and market reactions that end up valuing overall price, rather than an absolute speculative zero-sum endeavor. Maybe it's true that those of us who've learned to profit in the futures markets have come across too much of an advantage able to leverage up so much and make decent profits without having to cover the notional values. Maybe as retaliers , we "help" the big money make their hedges, contributing to the liquidity and price valuation in the smallest ways, where some would still say "overpaid" to do so. (And sorry to see this poster was just banned(?))

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #186 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick
Trading: 6E, NQ
 
Posts: 105 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 272 received

Zero sum as presented here doesn't seem to consider fees applied to the transactions. My $100 loss is actually a loss of $100 plus fees and commissions. Your $100 gain is actually a gain of $100 minus fees and commissions. If our brokerages have different commission structures the zero sum argument if further complicated. My $104.80 loss is your $95.75 gain. Between traders it is not a zero sum gain. And with this transaction, both brokers realize a net positive gain.

For most traders it would be more helpful if the concept of "zero sum" were more accurately understood as "sum to zero" in regard to the future balance on their account.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #187 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 
Posts: 301 since May 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 604 received


glennts View Post
Zero sum as presented here doesn't seem to consider fees applied to the transactions. My $100 loss is actually a loss of $100 plus fees and commissions. Your $100 gain is actually a gain of $100 minus fees and commissions. If our brokerages have different commission structures the zero sum argument if further complicated. My $104.80 loss is your $95.75 gain. Between traders it is not a zero sum gain. And with this transaction, both brokers realize a net positive gain.

For most traders it would be more helpful if the concept of "zero sum" were more accurately understood as "sum to zero" in regard to the future balance on their account.

Contract to Contract...Futures are a zero sum game. Commissions are just a cost to do business. Brokers charge commissions to give us low margins on borrowed leverage. Without this, most of us jokers would not be able to trade. Consider us lucky! LOL.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to WoodyFox for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #188 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick
Trading: 6E, NQ
 
Posts: 105 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 272 received

If by contract to contract you mean one sold / one bought then yes in that sense it is a zero some gain as all transactions that initiate a position will ultimately be closed. If referring to the cash value then it can be argued that it is not a zero sum gain. Brokers charge commissions not to enable us to trade but to generate revenue for their business. Brokers structure their rates not to do us a favor but to be compete with other brokers for our business. Every moment of the trading day tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars are swept off the table in the form of fees and commissions never to return to the arena and because of this, from a cash value perspective, it is not a zero sum gain. If a liquid were repeatedly poured from a one gallon container into another gallon container, at the end of the day we are left with a gallon of liquid. One could say this is an example of a zero sum gain. If a small fraction of that liquid were spilled with each pour it becomes something else.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #189 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 
Posts: 301 since May 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 604 received


glennts View Post
If by contract to contract you mean one sold / one bought then yes in that sense it is a zero some gain as all transactions that initiate a position will ultimately be closed. If referring to the cash value then it can be argued that it is not a zero sum gain. Brokers charge commissions not to enable us to trade but to generate revenue for their business. Brokers structure their rates not to do us a favor but to be compete with other brokers for our business. Every moment of the trading day tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars are swept off the table in the form of fees and commissions never to return to the arena and because of this, from a cash value perspective, it is not a zero sum gain. If a liquid were repeatedly poured from a one gallon container into another gallon container, at the end of the day we are left with a gallon of liquid. One could say this is an example of a zero sum gain. If a small fraction of that liquid were spilled with each pour it becomes something else.

To that prospective I see your analogy. But what about leverage, do you expect that for free?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #190 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick
Trading: 6E, NQ
 
Posts: 105 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 272 received


WoodyFox View Post
To that prospective I see your analogy. But what about leverage, do you expect that for free?

It's not clear to me what it is about my comments that led you to this question... I've not complained about fees and commissions but accept them as a fact of life. Leverage, like commissions, are one of the tools that brokers use to attract our business. Brokers use margin requirements to limit their exposure to the risk associated with offering leverage. We all make assertions of income and liquidity to the NFA to qualify for this access to leverage. Compare IB's margin and maintenance requirements to AMP's and you can see how this game is played. Because we have been programmed since birth to be mindless consumers we have come to associate cost with quality. Create a successful top shelf image / brand and that it costs more is to be expected and this is often viewed as confirmation of quality. That the upper and lower range of brokers offer a quality of service that may be identical really doesn't matter. If I say I use IB then I am wrapping myself in an image of a successful trader and on some level, garnered a bit of respect. If I brag about my broker letting me trade Micro's with only a few hundreds of dollars in my account, I'm announcing that although I may not see it coming, I'm soon to be road kill.

A saying from the Gold Rush Days is that the real wealth was acquired by those who sold the picks, shovels and denim jeans (Levi Strauss) to those who were doing the digging. That's the brokerage model. They provide access to the markets and we do the digging certain that there is gold to be found.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to glennts for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #191 (permalink)
 WoodyFox 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 
Posts: 301 since May 2016
Thanks: 119 given, 604 received


glennts View Post
It's not clear to me what it is about my comments that led you to this question... I've not complained about fees and commissions but accept them as a fact of life. Leverage, like commissions, are one of the tools that brokers use to attract our business. Brokers use margin requirements to limit their exposure to the risk associated with offering leverage. We all make assertions of income and liquidity to the NFA to qualify for this access to leverage. Compare IB's margin and maintenance requirements to AMP's and you can see how this game is played. Because we have been programmed since birth to be mindless consumers we have come to associate cost with quality. Create a successful top shelf image / brand and that it costs more is to be expected and this is often viewed as confirmation of quality. That the upper and lower range of brokers offer a quality of service that may be identical really doesn't matter. If I say I use IB then I am wrapping myself in an image of a successful trader and on some level, garnered a bit of respect. If I brag about my broker letting me trade Micro's with only a few hundreds of dollars in my account, I'm announcing that although I may not see it coming, I'm soon to be road kill.

A saying from the Gold Rush Days is that the real wealth was acquired by those who sold the picks, shovels and denim jeans (Levi Strauss) to those who were doing the digging. That's the brokerage model. They provide access to the markets and we do the digging certain that there is gold to be found.


OK,
You have a handle on the importance of the broker...We agree on the subject.

You simple see it as the "sum to zero, and I see it as a zero sum game with added business expenses. Agree do disagree. Cool.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #192 (permalink)
Nitbean
Lincoln, NE
 
 
Posts: 12 since Oct 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 13 received

I feel very similarly to OP (although I’ve started trading much more recently)
There is so much conflicting information on the internet. Even if you look into similar philosophies of trading, there are several different schools of thought each with their own unique spin. There’s no doubt in my mind that some of them, maybe even conflicting ones, can be profitable, but I’m also certain that there are certain plans/ways of looking at the market that will never lead to consistent profits no matter how rigorously they’re practice or mastered.

The problem with a lot of these is that there’s no way to test them because they are all “discretionary”

From a beginners perspective it’s all so noisy it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff (and if I was able to I wouldn’t need the help in the first place)

I’m contemplating looking for a mentor directly that I can verify, at least that way there’s no doubt that the system has the potential to lead to profitability and I won’t be wasting my time practicing and learning.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #193 (permalink)
 Salao 
Legendary Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Trading: ES (MES), MGC
 
Salao's Avatar
 
Posts: 854 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 6,487 given, 3,499 received


Nitbean View Post
I feel very similarly to OP (although I’ve started trading much more recently)
There is so much conflicting information on the internet. Even if you look into similar philosophies of trading, there are several different schools of thought each with their own unique spin. There’s no doubt in my mind that some of them, maybe even conflicting ones, can be profitable, but I’m also certain that there are certain plans/ways of looking at the market that will never lead to consistent profits no matter how rigorously they’re practice or mastered.

The problem with a lot of these is that there’s no way to test them because they are all “discretionary”

From a beginners perspective it’s all so noisy it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff (and if I was able to I wouldn’t need the help in the first place)

I’m contemplating looking for a mentor directly that I can verify, at least that way there’s no doubt that the system has the potential to lead to profitability and I won’t be wasting my time practicing and learning.

@Nitbean...you can test discretionary setups/methods/systems. It's probably one of the most worthwhile things a beginner can do. But it takes time...lots of time. And there will be dead-ends, and then the lost feeling will come back, but then there will be successes. Small ones probably. But hopefully they accumulate.

It's only my opinion, but I would never pay for a mentor. I've never heard from anyone that has found success doing that. The success stories may exist, but pay-mentor disaster stories are very common. .

You can find lots of experienced dudes on FIO that are willing to help you through some stuff. Some may even help you find ways to test some discretionary stuff. Good luck!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #194 (permalink)
Nitbean
Lincoln, NE
 
 
Posts: 12 since Oct 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 13 received


Salao View Post
@Nitbean...you can test discretionary setups/methods/systems. It's probably one of the most worthwhile things a beginner can do. But it takes time...lots of time. And there will be dead-ends, and then the lost feeling will come back, but then there will be successes. Small ones probably. But hopefully they accumulate.

It's only my opinion, but I would never pay for a mentor. I've never heard from anyone that has found success doing that. The success stories may exist, but pay-mentor disaster stories are very common. .

You can find lots of experienced dudes on FIO that are willing to help you through some stuff. Some may even help you find ways to test some discretionary stuff. Good luck!

I meant *easily* test, should've specified, haha.

I agree on paying for mentors, it's not something I would ever do either. I used to mentor for some classes last year and I felt guilty accepting any form of payment - I wanted to help those as a way to pay back those that have helped me - and I'd assume trading is very similar (maybe even more so due to it's emotionally challenging nature)


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Nitbean for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #195 (permalink)
 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,737 received


Nitbean View Post
I meant *easily* test, should've specified, haha.

I agree on paying for mentors, it's not something I would ever do either. I used to mentor for some classes last year and I felt guilty accepting any form of payment - I wanted to help those as a way to pay back those that have helped me - and I'd assume trading is very similar (maybe even more so due to it's emotionally challenging nature)


I would recommend absorbing yourself into the book by David Aronson called Evidence Based Technical Analysis. He basically confirms what I have been thinking for years; Technical Analysis is bunk unless its structure for testing is non subjective and mathematical. For example in the first few chapters, he totally debunks the head and shoulders pattern that we hear so much about these days. He completely strips any validity that some people believe this chart "pattern" has.

His book is not for the feint of heart. You need to understand basic math and statistics, but he walks you through it step by step. I highly recommended this book.

It is very amusing to watch people discuss trading patterns that David has proven to be useless junk, backed up by his evidence based testing and analysis. If you were wondering about the "upside down bat hanging in a cave with its teeth falling out" chart pattern being profitable, you'll soon come to realise it all means nothing.

You can get to his book via this website that has much more information than I can possibly cover here.

Dave Aronson Evidence Based Technical Analysis Trading Stocks Commodities

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #196 (permalink)
 semiopen 
hillsborough nj
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation/Excel
Broker: TradeStation
Trading: emicro
 
Posts: 97 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 17 given, 44 received


JonnyBoy View Post
It is very amusing to watch people discuss trading patterns that David has proven to be useless junk, backed up by his evidence based testing and analysis. If you were wondering about the "upside down bat hanging in a cave with its teeth falling out" chart pattern being profitable, you'll soon come to realise it all means nothing.

You can get to his book via this website that has much more information than I can possibly cover here.

Dave Aronson Evidence Based Technical Analysis Trading Stocks Commodities

It is also available on Kindle Unlimited for "free" I think.

I just read a few pages, but as long as the title is understood, that is pretty much the main thing.

And the technical discussions here are pretty lame.

Indicators are totally misunderstood. It would be interesting to read an "academic" history of technical analysis. It's like a would be trader/technician asked an academic to develop something for the greedy and lazy.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #197 (permalink)
 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,737 received


semiopen View Post
It is also available on Kindle Unlimited for "free" I think.

I just read a few pages, but as long as the title is understood, that is pretty much the main thing.

And the technical discussions here are pretty lame.

Indicators are totally misunderstood. It would be interesting to read an "academic" history of technical analysis. It's like a would be trader/technician asked an academic to develop something for the greedy and lazy.

Nice. I would continue reading it. I have re-read it numerous times and always find it a great read. I found the hardcopy much easier to navigate than the electronic version.

The indicator side of things I agree with. The majority of them are a self fulfilling prophecy, in that we believe they work because we believe they work! There will never be a shortage of new traders harvesting as many indicators as they can believing they can find an edge that nobody else has found. It takes a while until you realise that you need to remove subjectivity from your analysis. If you can do this, then an edge can be found.

For example, I have built myself a trading system/method that uses zero technical analysis to generate its signals. I am not totally indicator free in that I use VWAP, which yes, it is a moving average ala technical indicator, but its history of institutional execution benchmarking against it makes it the only moving average of worth. My opinion of course, but I have numerous white papers courtesy of my ex-institutional buddy how VWAP is used and why. Very powerful stuff that if used properly can be enabled to find an edge.

I do have trendlines on my chart for guidance, but my signals are generated only from the Level I, Level II and price action using a bespoke data series. That is it. No technical indicator based decisions at all.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #198 (permalink)
 TheBenefactor 
Pensacola FL
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2016


xevanchan View Post
Well damn; Interesting take from "TheBenefactor", lol. Don't think you should feel guilty, but the way I think of it is that everyone can win; everyone is trading different timeframes so maybe the person who took the opposite trade and netted you 3-6 points will cash in 2 weeks later for a gain of 25 points. Who knows? I'm not sure if its even theoretically possible for everyone to win, but it's not that black/white like poker where you are clearly taking from your opponents.

Hi,
Sorry for not posting sooner, but I trade for a living and don't have time to sit in chat rooms all day dispensing advice.
But here goes again until my next appearance:

How not to learn how to trade:

1- going into chat rooms and hope that some multi-millionaire is going to teach you all he or she knows about trading.

2- buying a book

3 - trying out trading ideas on your own.

4 - Buying some $99 per month online web course where the guru tells you how successful he or she is. ASK THEM HOW GOOD THEIR CLIENTS ARE. TALK TO THE CLIENTS. MORE THAN ONE.

BYE
GETTING READY FOR THE FED

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #199 (permalink)
Sameer9
Colombo Sri Lanka
 
 
Posts: 6 since Jan 2020
Thanks: 9 given, 5 received

There are lots of great replies here and as a beginner trader I am also in a similar situation where consistency is a big issue. Above all I think we have to be clear of our entry strategy and the fact that it has some sort of a profitable edge. If our system fails nothing is going to help in the first place. Once we sorted out it, with small yet inconsistent wins, we maybe able to build our confidence issues and all other psychological issues that come after. Any views on this?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #200 (permalink)
Gauer
garopaba + santa catarina
 
 
Posts: 37 since Aug 2019
Thanks: 8 given, 40 received

It takes thousands of hours of practice to become a master of a craft. Trading is a technical skill, and like any other technical skills it requires practice/repetition. Repetition makes perfect.


For example a person who wants to become a very good dentist, he will learn the theory first, then will spend years practicing on fake teeth/mouths to master his craft before attempting to work on a human being.

Would you go to a dentist that only read a couple of books, watched a couple of courses and barely practiced?


To me it was more than 6 years of sweat, blood, tears and losses til I finally stopped losing money, but mostly because I Was my own mentor, so I had to discover all by myself. I believe it could have been less if I had had a mentor to point me in the right direction, I wasted a lot of time with classical TA trying to come up with indicator based systems (which at the time I thought it was the correct way for trading = mechanical trading). I was ready to give up when I discovered VSA (volume spread analysis), as I posted in another thread, this was a game changer for me and it was like scales came off my eyes and I could finally read a chart properly. VSA is a modern adaptation of the Wyckoff method. Richard Wyckoff was a legendary trader and considered the "father of tape reading". His trading principles work today as they worked 100 years ago or so.

After discovering this, even then it took at least three years of deep study and practice of the method to reach a specialist level and the principles become second nature. Just don´t give up because success could be just around the corner, a lot of people give up when they are almost achieving what they wanted, that is what separates successful people from the rest.

The majority of the traders lose because the majority of people is too lazy to sit down and study and practice, even if they have the right knowledge. Those people just wanna a system that will flash green for them to buy, and red to sell. System/course sellers thrive on this, because they sell the illusion that is very easy to make money without putting the effort.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Gauer for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > Lost & losing hope


Last Updated on September 27, 2020


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts