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Where do I go from here?

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  #1 (permalink)
spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.

I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade

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  #3 (permalink)
 xplorer 
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spetscom View Post
I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks!

[...]

Thanks everyone,
Cade

Hi there Cade, welcome to FIO!

I joined FIO for the same reason as you: all the other forums out there were full of patronizing people so there was little point in getting any value out of it. This one I liked because of the quality of the participants and the high degree of moderation. So I trust you too will find value in it.

By the things you wrote it sounds to me like you have not yet decided what avenue you want to pursue in trading: the two options typical of retail traders are 1) systematic (or algorithmic) trading or 2) discretionary trading.

Have I got that right?

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  #4 (permalink)
spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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xplorer View Post
Hi there Cade, welcome to FIO!

I joined FIO for the same reason as you: all the other forums out there were full of patronizing people so there was little point in getting any value out of it. This one I liked because of the quality of the participants and the high degree of moderation. So I trust you too will find value in it.

By the things you wrote it sounds to me like you have not yet decided what avenue you want to pursue in trading: the two options typical of retail traders are 1) systematic (or algorithmic) trading or 2) discretionary trading.

Have I got that right?

I prefer discretionary trading. I used the strategy builder in NT8 to basically try and test the ideas I had in my head, things I've noticed, from watching the market, and get some statistical feedback on whether or not they were viable long term strategies. I have used all the strategies I programmed in NT8 to basically generate signals, and then it alerts me(it also takes a simulated position). I then use my discretion to decide whether or not to place the trade, as the strategy is about as optimized as I could get it, however it would still take some bad trades (It would take trades based on trend, but sometimes it would take positions during awful chop/consolidation and continuously be switching from long to short and then back to long, losing a ton of money in the interim. I used some ADX values to cut out a lot of the choppy trades, but it would still take some of them.). And while I have been programming for about 6 years, I loved trading before I even knew about creating trading systems. Even if I had an algo that worked 100% of the time, I would still be watching the markets every morning.

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  #5 (permalink)
 blb014 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
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spetscom View Post
Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.

I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade

You seem really dedicated and smart for being so young. Go experience college, you might find you enjoy a different field like Medicine or Law, If trading is the way you want to go, why not major in Quantative Finance?

No need to be hold up 16 hours a day watching a screen. Inactivity is the worst thing for your health unfortunately I see it a lot with programmers.

Unless you have an inheritance or your parents are giving you funds to trade, are capitalized enough to trade futures?

Just things to consider, I hope the best for you

Volatility is good for the market and trading.

Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp
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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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blb014 View Post
You seem really dedicated and smart for being so young. Go experience college, you might find you enjoy a different field like Medicine or Law, If trading is the way you want to go, why not major in Quantative Finance?

No need to be hold up 16 hours a day watching a screen. Inactivity is the worst thing for your health unfortunately I see it a lot with programmers.

Unless you have an inheritance or your parents are giving you funds to trade, are capitalized enough to trade futures?

Just things to consider, I hope the best for you

I have experienced college (My highschool offers to pay for college while you're enrolled, if you can test into the college. I passed the tests and so I got to go to college for free during my highschool years) and it just isn't my cup of tea. I do have other things in my life besides trading, I am currently organizing and helping a local restaurant open (They needed help setting up a coffee bar, and I am passionate about coffee. I basically got handed a job being the cafe manager, which was a big blessing. The business will be open in a few weeks, and I'll be trading in the morning, and making espresso in the evening.) As for funds, it is a bit of a weird situation. I do have a small account for trading futures, it is essentially money I plan on losing (for the sake of learning, not reckless gambling). I'll also be dumping money into my account from working at the coffee shop. Now, I will be getting access to a large amount of funds in the near future. My stepdad owned a business that he just recently sold, and he's offering to give me a large chunk of change to trade if I can prove that I can be consistent. He's not a blind believer in anything, and he wants to see me have a steady equity curve before he hands me over some money. Which I completely understand. He is an entrepreneur, and so he understands that I'm not going to just get into futures and instantly hit it out of the park and make a killing. My parents support me in my trading, and so I kind of have a great opportunity. I can trade without overhead besides the typical trading related fees, and I'm just really blessed to be in the situation that I am in now.

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 blb014 
Dallas, Texas
 
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spetscom View Post
I have experienced college (My highschool offers to pay for college while you're enrolled, if you can test into the college. I passed the tests and so I got to go to college for free during my highschool years) and it just isn't my cup of tea. I do have other things in my life besides trading, I am currently organizing and helping a local restaurant open (They needed help setting up a coffee bar, and I am passionate about coffee. I basically got handed a job being the cafe manager, which was a big blessing. The business will be open in a few weeks, and I'll be trading in the morning, and making espresso in the evening.) As for funds, it is a bit of a weird situation. I do have a small account for trading futures, it is essentially money I plan on losing (for the sake of learning, not reckless gambling). I'll also be dumping money into my account from working at the coffee shop. Now, I will be getting access to a large amount of funds in the near future. My stepdad owned a business that he just recently sold, and he's offering to give me a large chunk of change to trade if I can prove that I can be consistent. He's not a blind believer in anything, and he wants to see me have a steady equity curve before he hands me over some money. Which I completely understand. He is an entrepreneur, and so he understands that I'm not going to just get into futures and instantly hit it out of the park and make a killing. My parents support me in my trading, and so I kind of have a great opportunity. I can trade without overhead besides the typical trading related fees, and I'm just really blessed to be in the situation that I am in now.


That could be really good thing. Not having the emotional ties to money that older people that have worked for decades, it took me 15 years or so of working to have enough money to invest and trade. That is a plus. Good Luck

Volatility is good for the market and trading.

Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp
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prof
Amsterdam Netherlands
 
 
Posts: 9 since Jul 2018
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If I were you I would find the cheapest products/strategy/.. to trade, so you can get as much experience as possible for the money. The more experience the better basically and the cheaper it is the more you can get of it. And just keep improving of course.

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 eudamonia 
Sacramento, CA
 
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Since it seems like you've got a pretty good head on your shoulders I'll chime in here with my 2 cents.

Read a few of the accounts of the pros here on Futures.io. Start with page 121 of Big Mike's journal:



This thread was the starting point for my own turning point in trading. The number one piece of advice (that most people won't follow) is to swing trade. That is where the big money is made and it requires more than $5k in your account. Other things that may help you:

1) There are no certainties, no perfect indicator. Get 90% of that stuff off the screen. Use some simple MAs or your eyes and look at the longer timeframes (daily and weekly). The big question I ask myself every day is - are we in a trend or a range? A 5 year old should be able to determine this just by looking. If you can't figure it out then don't trade that day;

2) Hold your winners significantly longer than your losers (see above regarding swing trading). Also, you must add to your winners. Read Mike's thread or TigerTrader's threads for more details on how to do that;

3) Setup a journal and post it here;

4) Get detailed stats - excel or TraderVue;

5) Read about deliberate practice (read Enhancing Trading Performance by Dr. Brett Steenbarger) and use those tools to continue to hone your edge.

Good luck!

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
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/

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  #11 (permalink)
spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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eudamonia View Post
Since it seems like you've got a pretty good head on your shoulders I'll chime in here with my 2 cents.

Read a few of the accounts of the pros here on Futures.io. Start with page 121 of Big Mike's journal:



This thread was the starting point for my own turning point in trading. The number one piece of advice (that most people won't follow) is to swing trade. That is where the big money is made and it requires more than $5k in your account. Other things that may help you:

1) There are no certainties, no perfect indicator. Get 90% of that stuff off the screen. Use some simple MAs or your eyes and look at the longer timeframes (daily and weekly). The big question I ask myself every day is - are we in a trend or a range? A 5 year old should be able to determine this just by looking. If you can't figure it out then don't trade that day;

2) Hold your winners significantly longer than your losers (see above regarding swing trading). Also, you must add to your winners. Read Mike's thread or TigerTrader's threads for more details on how to do that;

3) Setup a journal and post it here;

4) Get detailed stats - excel or TraderVue;

5) Read about deliberate practice (read Enhancing Trading Performance by Dr. Brett Steenbarger) and use those tools to continue to hone your edge.

Good luck!


Hey thank you so much man, I am away from home and on my mobile, but as soon as I get home tonight Iím gonna check out those links you posted. Itís a relief to hear what you say that about indicators, I really only felt like a simple MA is all you need for indicators. And of course volume bars and T&S. Will reply when I read those links. Ty!

Btw what do you mean on detailed statistics? In terms of my trades I place or on the ES

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 MiniP 
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What system are you using to trade stocks? Is is purely fundamental?

Sounds like you have a great head on your shoulders and setting a great foundation. I would suggest you try and use what your using now. If you are looking for volume there are tons of volume methods if you want to build an algo then there are tons of ways to do that. I trade with 3 emas and a OHLC indicator, basically looking for S/R and intra day trend. You can add thousands of indicators and pay thousands for software but if you cant read the market then none of that is going to help. I would recommend that you put 1 ema/sma on a chart ( I like tick charts) of your liking and just start to write down what happens. What happens when we get to the COY or the HOY or an ONH once you see that then look to see what signals the market gives and how the ES moves.

I would also recommend trading something else besides the ES I really like the NQ. It does move very fast but if your wrong then it lets you know and then sets you up for another chance to get a trade in. The ES is sooooo thick also the NQ is about 60% cheaper then the ES.

What it is really going to boil down to is deciding that type of trader you want to be and until you experience the majority of styles then its going to be a little hard to get comfortable. Try swing trading,scalping ( my favorite ) , systematic, news/fundamental based there are a millions different type of trading styles... you could use the moon to gauge cycles in the market lol there a tons of ways to trade.


I would defiantly start a journal


-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 eudamonia 
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spetscom View Post
Hey thank you so much man, I am away from home and on my mobile, but as soon as I get home tonight I’m gonna check out those links you posted. It’s a relief to hear what you say that about indicators, I really only felt like a simple MA is all you need for indicators. And of course volume bars and T&S. Will reply when I read those links. Ty!

Btw what do you mean on detailed statistics? In terms of my trades I place or on the ES

Both. You want to track what you are doing in great detail as it will provide insights you would otherwise miss. Additionally, you want to understand the market(s) you are trading. For example, FuturesTrader71 and Quantifiable Edges are good folks to check out - they both keep good statistics on how the market is performing compared to historical results. Instead of just parroting what they do my recommendation is to try to take those concepts and build your own statistical models (basically a simple way to do this is tracking in excel).

Here is a real world example: I know that statistically I perform far better on Outside Range days than other trading days. Therefore, I keep statistics on how often these occur and when they tend to occur. This helps me better prepare for those types of days.

Finally, if you aren't already I highly recommend spending the money to become an Elite member here. The content available to elite members is very high quality and there is a lot of content for the price.

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 Scalpingtrader 
Hanover, Germany
 
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A lot of what eudamonia said. Plus reading a diversity of threads & watching a bunch of webinars here on the site to see which styles of trading speak to you.

There is no point in the act of placing trades if you don’t understand what kind of trader you are or want to be.

FWIW I am convinced that this exact behavior led me down a rabbit hole of bad habits & indecisiveness that then takes years to unlearn.

Figure out who you want to be as a trader, then figure out what you need to be good at to become that trader, THEN engage with the market to hone those skills. (Assuming a discretionary approach).

P.S.: build your own worldview in trading. Take advise but not blindly. Be patient and try to enjoy the process. But also enjoy life along the way - there is nothing more pitiful than a high-performing trader making 100’s of thousands per year who’s got no other passions and no other people in life.

Good luck!
ST.

Edit: you’ll need to be an elite-member to access most of the great threads / journals. It’s probably the best investment you’ll make in trading.

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soumen
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Some things that could affect the market:
Thursday action was good but didn’t like Friday. SP was up by not much and then gave away all the gains closing down a little almost unchanged. Obviously it’s having trouble holding the gains. Don’t forget the market went up against huge negative bias by market strategists and it does not look like it’s going to break out after Friday action. May worth closing out longs. Where is the action next week? not sure but definitely lots of things will happen when OPEC meets next week. Oil looks interesting but I will be on the sideline...

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 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
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Few more observations,


Quoting 
So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy.

I recommend that you look at my health related threads in off-topic section. What I think is the optimal setup is to setup 2 computer workstations, one is a standing station and the other is a seated station (alternative, get an electronic standing desk). Get a Concept 2 rowing machine. Every 1-2 hours do 1-2 minutes of 85%-100% intensity rowing, air squats (or brain squats), and wall push-ups for a total of around 2-5 minutes approximately every hour and finally take a 45-60 minute walk every day. Consider to add in weight training at the gym a few times a week, as well, and swimming.


Quoting 
I am completely consumed with trading. I spend all of my time trying to improve.

Balance is difficult but has value. As Arnold might say, be hungry. If one is consumed, it is something that happens to one while hunger is generated.

On trying to improve, improvement is possible but might be overrated. I see trading success more as more of a triangle: skill/edge, mentality, and resources. These are internal and must be balanced with the external opportunity set which is never static.

Good luck!

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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Man guys thank you so much for the help and advice. I made it a point to set up my monitors exactly how I like them last night. I have a simple MA and volume on my charts, and I'm gonna keep it this way for the sake of consistency (I never really used a ton of indicators anyways). I am going to be starting my trading journal tonight as well.

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soumen
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Few thoughts:
Just an update of previous post and I was not sure where else to post and wanted to keep it together. I am not a technical analyst by any means but judging from big technical analysts crowd here I will try to give some technical analysis. SP is pre market -12 now although it was down more earlier. If it goes down further it might provide buying opportunity. 2910 to 2915. If you are patient unlike me then may wait until near close today. Find the bottom.
Afterwards, however if there is a rally may worth closing longs +15 points. It may take holding it today and tomorrow.
Do your own due diligence.

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 matthew28 
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soumen View Post
Just an update of previous post and I was not sure where else to post and wanted to keep it together.

You could start a trade journal just collecting all your market thoughts together there. Lots of trade journals detailing people's ideas about the markets rather than detailing trades.
There is a Trading Journal forum for non-elite members (along with the Elite Trading Journal forum also available to members).

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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  #20 (permalink)
 Xtrader22 
Las Vegas, NV., USA
 
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spetscom View Post
Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.

I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade

First, let me congradulate you for being interested in trading and investing at such a young age. Although I was young when I started, I wasn't 18 yrs old, so kudos for that.

A couple things I picked up from your post: it might be a good idea to stepback and gain some perspective. Sometimes fresh new ideas come when you step away from the markets for a bit. I don't know how long that would be for you, but you'll know b/c trading ideas that seemed like it couldn't come together before, starts to come together once your mind is refreshed. Sounds corny, but its absolutely true.

Yes, I can understand what you are saying about the flow of a market. Whether its the s&p's or cattle, there is a distinct flow and characteristic to every market. Part of trading is to understand that flow, but that's only part. Work on one trading method, come up with some rules for it and trade it that one method. In mark douglas's book "the disciplined trader" he mentions that you need to break down your strategies to just one and then implement and test it before running it live. Also sounds like your both a coder and a trader. I would suggest maybe just to be a trader first and test out that one strategy.

Here's some examples on how to choose some potential strategies:

1.breakdown ES into 3 quadrants: a)First quadrant is high volume, high volatility period (9:30am to 11am est). Reversals, breakouts, LOD,HOD could be some of the areas you look at. b)2nd quadrant is much slower probably because lunch and to be honest, alot of traders made their money in the 1st quadrant and have now quit for the day. this would be perfect time to test moving averages, trend trading, pivots and swing trading. this time frame tends to be from 11am to 2pm est. c)3rd quadrant is usually when volatility comes back and sometimes a sharp reversal headed into 5pm close. all of the strategies I listed in the first two quadrants would be applicable in the third quadrant since it can be the most unexpected at times if a reversal doesn't happen.

2. Only test shorts. If you've traded futures, forex or stocks for any length of time, then you know that the market moves alot faster coming down. Having said that, there should be a trading setups around just this one phenomenon, whether its moving averages, trend trading or what have you.

3.Losing is part of the game. I say that not to patronize you as you didn't know that already, but to remind you that we are not going to win every trade. If you have indeed mastered the psychological aspect of trading, then we know that every trade you enter will not be a winner. that is the goal mind you, but every trade will not be a winner. Knowing that, create a your orders with a predetermined stop loss that is half of your take profit order. Yes, I know let your profits run. I understand that and know many that follow this rule, but its difficult for that to happen and see till its full fruition. So if you have a 3 point stoploss, then your take profit order needs to be around 5.5 to 6points. This is only an example as I do not know your acct size but your ratio should be close to 2:1 profits over losses. Now even that sometimes cannot happen all the time, so determine when you do u slide that stop loss to breakeven and/or to a small profit once your trade is headed to your profit target. Just because losing is part of the game, you don't need the market to go all the way to your stop loss either. if you can cut that loss even further by exiting quickly on your losses, when you profit, you should be able to overcome your losses with just one or two wins.

4.Is ES the right market for you? Why not the russell or the dow? Just throwing it out there. Reason being is the russell 2000 (RTY not TF) has less herky jerkyness (i know this isn't even a word..lol) and can be less stressful b/c each tick is only worth $5 and not $12.50 like ES. Russell might be more conducive to your personality or trading style..test it and try it out.

In conclusion, alot of successful traders make their targets and move away from their charts and computers when they hit their goal. There should also be a goal on losses also. Once you hit it, stop and don't trade on your live platform. If you still feel the desire to trade or test, move to your demo platform. All in all though I'd say to gain some perspective, go do something else other than trading for 16 hrs, so that when you come back, your mind is fresh and brimming with ideas! Sounds like you have alot going for you so don't burn yourself out before your 25yrs old buddy

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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Xtrader22 View Post
First, let me congradulate you for being interested in trading and investing at such a young age. Although I was young when I started, I wasn't 18 yrs old, so kudos for that.



A couple things I picked up from your post: it might be a good idea to stepback and gain some perspective. Sometimes fresh new ideas come when you step away from the markets for a bit. I don't know how long that would be for you, but you'll know b/c trading ideas that seemed like it couldn't come together before, starts to come together once your mind is refreshed. Sounds corny, but its absolutely true.



Yes, I can understand what you are saying about the flow of a market. Whether its the s&p's or cattle, there is a distinct flow and characteristic to every market. Part of trading is to understand that flow, but that's only part. Work on one trading method, come up with some rules for it and trade it that one method. In mark douglas's book "the disciplined trader" he mentions that you need to break down your strategies to just one and then implement and test it before running it live. Also sounds like your both a coder and a trader. I would suggest maybe just to be a trader first and test out that one strategy.



Here's some examples on how to choose some potential strategies:



1.breakdown ES into 3 quadrants: a)First quadrant is high volume, high volatility period (9:30am to 11am est). Reversals, breakouts, LOD,HOD could be some of the areas you look at. b)2nd quadrant is much slower probably because lunch and to be honest, alot of traders made their money in the 1st quadrant and have now quit for the day. this would be perfect time to test moving averages, trend trading, pivots and swing trading. this time frame tends to be from 11am to 2pm est. c)3rd quadrant is usually when volatility comes back and sometimes a sharp reversal headed into 5pm close. all of the strategies I listed in the first two quadrants would be applicable in the third quadrant since it can be the most unexpected at times if a reversal doesn't happen.



2. Only test shorts. If you've traded futures, forex or stocks for any length of time, then you know that the market moves alot faster coming down. Having said that, there should be a trading setups around just this one phenomenon, whether its moving averages, trend trading or what have you.



3.Losing is part of the game. I say that not to patronize you as you didn't know that already, but to remind you that we are not going to win every trade. If you have indeed mastered the psychological aspect of trading, then we know that every trade you enter will not be a winner. that is the goal mind you, but every trade will not be a winner. Knowing that, create a your orders with a predetermined stop loss that is half of your take profit order. Yes, I know let your profits run. I understand that and know many that follow this rule, but its difficult for that to happen and see till its full fruition. So if you have a 3 point stoploss, then your take profit order needs to be around 5.5 to 6points. This is only an example as I do not know your acct size but your ratio should be close to 2:1 profits over losses. Now even that sometimes cannot happen all the time, so determine when you do u slide that stop loss to breakeven and/or to a small profit once your trade is headed to your profit target. Just because losing is part of the game, you don't need the market to go all the way to your stop loss either. if you can cut that loss even further by exiting quickly on your losses, when you profit, you should be able to overcome your losses with just one or two wins.



4.Is ES the right market for you? Why not the russell or the dow? Just throwing it out there. Reason being is the russell 2000 (RTY not TF) has less herky jerkyness (i know this isn't even a word..lol) and can be less stressful b/c each tick is only worth $5 and not $12.50 like ES. Russell might be more conducive to your personality or trading style..test it and try it out.



In conclusion, alot of successful traders make their targets and move away from their charts and computers when they hit their goal. There should also be a goal on losses also. Once you hit it, stop and don't trade on your live platform. If you still feel the desire to trade or test, move to your demo platform. All in all though I'd say to gain some perspective, go do something else other than trading for 16 hrs, so that when you come back, your mind is fresh and brimming with ideas! Sounds like you have alot going for you so don't burn yourself out before your 25yrs old buddy



Hey thank you for all of that advice. Itís pretty interesting to hear from someone who learned from a floortrader on the CBOT. I have moved away from the ES as I find the NQ more attractive in terms of tick value and movement. The charts look cleaner. I really want to get into CL as well but I donít think Iím ready for the tick value+movement speed of it. I find myself being more of an intuitive trader, by that I basically mean I combine all of my experience of staring at charts and study of technicals to draw conclusions on the fly. I tried a mechanical/algo approach but it just doesnít fit me.

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 Xtrader22 
Las Vegas, NV., USA
 
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spetscom View Post
Hey thank you for all of that advice. Itís pretty interesting to hear from someone who learned from a floortrader on the CBOT. I have moved away from the ES as I find the NQ more attractive in terms of tick value and movement. The charts look cleaner. I really want to get into CL as well but I donít think Iím ready for the tick value+movement speed of it. I find myself being more of an intuitive trader, by that I basically mean I combine all of my experience of staring at charts and study of technicals to draw conclusions on the fly. I tried a mechanical/algo approach but it just doesnít fit me.

Cool, once you get your system together, crude oil is a great market, but like u said, it moves fast and the tick value increases quickly. Some days I see oil (I don't actively trade CL) doing over 200 points so its definetly a market where opportunities are in abundance.

I know what you mean by trading intuitively and I wish you the best, I would like to think tho that having at least one setup allows you to plan ahead and be patient for your trades. But I do see intuitive trading as a big draw as a way to trade. Just don't know that its entirely profitable in long run.

good luck my friend and good trading

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
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Xtrader22 View Post
Cool, once you get your system together, crude oil is a great market, but like u said, it moves fast and the tick value increases quickly. Some days I see oil (I don't actively trade CL) doing over 200 points so its definetly a market where opportunities are in abundance.



I know what you mean by trading intuitively and I wish you the best, I would like to think tho that having at least one setup allows you to plan ahead and be patient for your trades. But I do see intuitive trading as a big draw as a way to trade. Just don't know that its entirely profitable in long run.



good luck my friend and good trading



Yes I feel like the word intuitive has been kind of marred or used as a scapegoat to justify random trading/sloppy trading. I should clarify my definition more. For example, one pattern I noticed a lot with the ES was that if it was a big trend day towards the upside, it would tend to gas out after its 3rd parabolic move upward. While it may still end the day higher, I noticed after the 3 parabolic movements it would gas, and have a sharp pullback. It was a low risk opportunity. I didnít have the criteria for it written down somewhere i should say. I struggle with criteria like that because markets are always evolving and changing, so while that pattern may occur multiple times, each instance will have its own subtleties. Therefore, it is easier for my brain to simply remember the general appearance of the pattern and then use real time analysis of the action to decide where my entry point shall be, exits, etc. There are definitely times when I look at a chart and simply have no clue where it is headed, in that case I will not place a trade. Other times I see it and instantly get a reaction to go short or long.

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 Xtrader22 
Las Vegas, NV., USA
 
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spetscom View Post
Yes I feel like the word intuitive has been kind of marred or used as a scapegoat to justify random trading/sloppy trading. I should clarify my definition more. For example, one pattern I noticed a lot with the ES was that if it was a big trend day towards the upside, it would tend to gas out after its 3rd parabolic move upward. While it may still end the day higher, I noticed after the 3 parabolic movements it would gas, and have a sharp pullback. It was a low risk opportunity. I didnít have the criteria for it written down somewhere i should say. I struggle with criteria like that because markets are always evolving and changing, so while that pattern may occur multiple times, each instance will have its own subtleties. Therefore, it is easier for my brain to simply remember the general appearance of the pattern and then use real time analysis of the action to decide where my entry point shall be, exits, etc. There are definitely times when I look at a chart and simply have no clue where it is headed, in that case I will not place a trade. Other times I see it and instantly get a reaction to go short or long.

Right, if you've traded for any length of time, you see these setups. There also could be a major pivot (resistance zone) in that location. Which would clarifying the market pausing and then retracing. Not suggesting to trade more rigid without allowing for "free flowing" intuitive trading, but I think if you look just a layer deeper, it could lead not to just one or two trades, but a consistent setup that happens alot more frequent once you've identified it. Pivot points have long been some of the floor traders "secret" to their success. They traded intuitively within the boundries of support and resistance zones if that makes sense, so take a look at that..u might be surprised how uncanny they are accurate.

good luck my friend and good trading

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
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Xtrader22 View Post
Right, if you've traded for any length of time, you see these setups. There also could be a major pivot (resistance zone) in that location. Which would clarifying the market pausing and then retracing. Not suggesting to trade more rigid without allowing for "free flowing" intuitive trading, but I think if you look just a layer deeper, it could lead not to just one or two trades, but a consistent setup that happens alot more frequent once you've identified it. Pivot points have long been some of the floor traders "secret" to their success. They traded intuitively within the boundries of support and resistance zones if that makes sense, so take a look at that..u might be surprised how uncanny they are accurate.



good luck my friend and good trading



Could you elaborate more on pivots? I know I could probably just go on Investopedia, but Iíd rather hear your take on them since you actually were taught by a floor trader.

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  #26 (permalink)
 Xtrader22 
Las Vegas, NV., USA
 
Experience: Master
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spetscom View Post
Could you elaborate more on pivots? I know I could probably just go on Investopedia, but Iíd rather hear your take on them since you actually were taught by a floor trader.

Pivots are the same thing as support and resistance areas of importance..most are on your charts already, some you can use preloaded indicators and some you manually place them where u believe they are support and resistances areas just by watching the markets.

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 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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spetscom View Post
Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.

I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade

Hey there,
Check out this thread.


Someone had a similar question and they were recommended, and using successfully, a free course by a bloke called Adam Grimes (it's in the thread). I've had a quick look at the first few videos and he certainly sounds legit. By the sound of it you shouldn't be put off just because it's free!

Top tip, mark out, or always be aware where the open price and 10 min range is, along with the closing price and the 10 min range made beforehand. Make sure you know where they all are for the last few days. It's amazing how much price reacts to it.

Trading is essentially down to two things: working out if price is changing direction or not, and then working out where it's most likely to change direction!

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  #28 (permalink)
 CosmicC 
Metairie,la
 
Experience: Advanced
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Thanks: 1 given, 3 received

Cade

I felt the same way. I have been studying the ES during 2018 and found the best strategy for me is to trade the algos 5hr, 1hr, 3min and 1 min with heiken ashi candlesticks.

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  #29 (permalink)
kazz
London
 
 
Posts: 148 since Apr 2018
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If you have a passion for trading then, at your age should you not be looking to join a good prop firm and learn how to trade properly with them?

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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  #30 (permalink)
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
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Wow you sound a whole lot like me right now, except i'm a little closer to throwing in the towel. You're not the only 18 year old trying to figure out the /ES. Honestly it seems like you have a better grasp than I do; maybe just trust your gut since you seem to be able to read and predict price action decently. If your psychology is on lock as you say, then the problem has to lie somewhere within your strategy. I don't think you need to test more indicators though, a lot of them are BS anyways. Take with with a grain of salt since though, since I probably shouldn't be giving advice anyway. Good Luck!

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 Keab 
London UK
 
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spetscom View Post
Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.


I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade


Hi there,
I went through the same thing so let me try and set you on the right path. I'll number my points to give you a clear view of what I'm talking about.
1) Forget programming. Learn to understand the market and what drives it (volume etc). Regarding the programming, the best minds have been employed by Goldman Sachs etc in order to try to profit in the same way. They didn't manage it. The only way they could make a profit was to game the market by jumping the order queue and seeing/executing orders before everyone else. I have talked to lots of traders and the amount who are programmers who want to try to automise things is astounding. One of them had traded on the floor on the Chicago futures pit and lost money. He was a programmer by trade. He couldn't do it. Of course you might buck the trend but the numbers are against you.

2)Learn how volume interacts with price. I don't mean learn to read a price ladder/DOM. I have charts that have volume and cumulative delta showing. You can glean a huge amount of info from how price reacts to volume and at a certain prices/SR points. The S/R points are in point 3.

3) What SR should you use? Mark out the open price and the closing price. These are massively important as a lot of money comes into/eaves the market at these points. You will be amazed how often price reacts to these areas. Mark out 15 min swing highs and lows. See how price reacts when it reaches these areas.

4) Understand what a liquidity sweep is. These are mistakenly called stop hunts. Whilst this is not necessarily incorrect, if you understand why it is a liquidity sweep then it helps you to understand what the market does. I am not affiliated in any way-look up a channel called Market traders Daily and see his explanation of stop hunts. Hopefully it will open a few mental doors

5) I am in London UK and trade the ES in the UK morning as well as the US session. I will post an example to show you what I mean in point 2.
In the chart provided, price moves above the swing high that was made this morning. Refer to point 4) liquidity sweeps.
Look at the price reaction to this area. Look at the volume on both the normal volume and the delta. What do you think you should do?

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
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Keab View Post






Hi there,

I went through the same thing so let me try and set you on the right path. I'll number my points to give you a clear view of what I'm talking about.

1) Forget programming. Learn to understand the market and what drives it (volume etc). Regarding the programming, the best minds have been employed by Goldman Sachs etc in order to try to profit in the same way. They didn't manage it. The only way they could make a profit was to game the market by jumping the order queue and seeing/executing orders before everyone else. I have talked to lots of traders and the amount who are programmers who want to try to automise things is astounding. One of them had traded on the floor on the Chicago futures pit and lost money. He was a programmer by trade. He couldn't do it. Of course you might buck the trend but the numbers are against you.



2)Learn how volume interacts with price. I don't mean learn to read a price ladder/DOM. I have charts that have volume and cumulative delta showing. You can glean a huge amount of info from how price reacts to volume and at a certain prices/SR points. The S/R points are in point 3.



3) What SR should you use? Mark out the open price and the closing price. These are massively important as a lot of money comes into/eaves the market at these points. You will be amazed how often price reacts to these areas. Mark out 15 min swing highs and lows. See how price reacts when it reaches these areas.



4) Understand what a liquidity sweep is. These are mistakenly called stop hunts. Whilst this is not necessarily incorrect, if you understand why it is a liquidity sweep then it helps you to understand what the market does. I am not affiliated in any way-look up a channel called Market traders Daily and see his explanation of stop hunts. Hopefully it will open a few mental doors



5) I am in London UK and trade the ES in the UK morning as well as the US session. I will post an example to show you what I mean in point 2.

In the chart provided, price moves above the swing high that was made this morning. Refer to point 4) liquidity sweeps.

Look at the price reaction to this area. Look at the volume on both the normal volume and the delta. What do you think you should do?



Thank you for the detailed reply. I do not know what I would do with that chart, simply by looking at that price action, I would say go long on a pullback. But as far as delta goes, I admit I have no understanding of it, or volume profiling. I have tried to understand volume profiling, but I canít grasp it. I generally use simple price action + volume bars + T&S tape. Iím open to your ideas you talk about though if you could elaborate more.

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  #33 (permalink)
 Massive l 
Legendary Market Wizard
Portland, OR
 
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I feel your pain man. If it's a passion, you'll find a way. You have to put in the work like you are and be patient.

Patience is the #1 quality that makes a great trader. I don't have any friends in my city that are traders and I don't even talk about trading. It's word of mouth. But it's taken me 10 years. I used to barely sleep...for years.

I'd have my laptop right next to my bed and wake up in the middle of the night, several times, every single trading night. and you know what...that didn't help. watch the markets during normal business hours. program during or after but don't lose sleep over it. I trade almost entirely off of support/resistance and volume profile.

So many people think you can't do it and they credit that to algos. You can't win as a normal trader because the algos are too smart. well it's bullshit. Cut your losers, play great defense. Don't double down on days. What I mean by that is I used to make say 50 ticks then feel I had 50 free ticks to trade and worst case I walk out breakeven. that's dumb.

Always walk away with profit. don't risk more just because you made more. Great defense and patience. Knowing your trading expectancy is key. You need to know that you have an edge and you need to know that expectancy so you know when you can expect to exit the trade if you're unsure.

If the market is moving real well and the volume patterns coming in are in my favor, I let it ride. But you have to take profits in order to build you account. #rant #yougotit #patience

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  #34 (permalink)
 eferggbd 
Monterey, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, TradeStation
Broker: Ninja
Trading: ES, CL
 
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Hey Cade, when you're looking for strategies, are you focused on the really short-term intraday stuff? It's super hard for me to find anything that works on a short term basis. But when I dial it out to longer-term for the ES, then there are more opportunities that seem to stand out.

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 83 given, 111 received

Hey everyone, I see this thread is still getting replies so I figure I should update everyone. At this point, I have found two markets that I love to trade. CL & NQ. Me and my buddy whoís very good with statistics and mathematics are developing an algorithm on the side for fun. Itís actually profitable, but needs a ton of work.

So far, things are going well for my discretionary trading. My risk:reward is about 1:3 or better. I tend to play intraday momentum. I generally stay in positions for 10-30 minutes. I have concrete risk management, but I do not have concrete entry parameters. Every moment in the market is unique, so I use my own judgement to decide whether or not I enter. I have turned a 2k account into 3.5k using this method and have had very few losers, and most were small losers on top of that.

I notice a lot of futures traders use Volume profiling, and I feel like there is something there that may be significant, I just donít quite understand its use. I overthink a lot already, and when I have even 1 moving average on my screen I can begin to overthink and not take a position all together. Thatís why I only use price action and volume + tape.

Itís kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I donít mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable. It is weird for me because everyone talks about how oh Trading needs to be so methodical and rigid, which it does in terms of risk management, but as far as entry parameters, setups, etc. it just doesnít work for me. I perform much better by not adhering to that idea.

However, I am interested in volume profiling, as well as the delta thing. Iím always open to learning new things about trading that might improve it.


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  #36 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
Webinar Host
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@ spetscom, glad to hear you are still at it and seeing good results. Intuition is something that normally takes most people a long time to develop in the markets, but if yours is serving you well then you've got a leg up.

VP is definitely worth looking into, although I've noticed it responds differently depending on the market you are trading; if you ever spring for elite membership, you'd probably do well to check out the Spoos thread which was focused on ES, lots of information and methodologies there.

Cumulative delta is interesting, I'm taking it for a spin myself and it has proven useful in certain situations; I use it more for confirmation as opposed to using it as a signal. Once you learn to interpret various forms of volume, they become very powerful tools indeed.

Are you really in Niles? Old stomping grounds... my folks live in between Edwardsburg and Union... we used to raise some hell over there and then flee into the country lol. Heading up there after Xmas for some much deserved R&R time.


Take care,
Shane

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spetscom
Niles, Michigan
 
 
Posts: 73 since Sep 2018
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@ spetscom, glad to hear you are still at it and seeing good results. Intuition is something that normally takes most people a long time to develop in the markets, but if yours is serving you well then you've got a leg up.

VP is definitely worth looking into, although I've noticed it responds differently depending on the market you are trading; if you ever spring for elite membership, you'd probably do well to check out the Spoos thread which was focused on ES, lots of information and methodologies there.

Cumulative delta is interesting, I'm taking it for a spin myself and it has proven useful in certain situations; I use it more for confirmation as opposed to using it as a signal. Once you learn to interpret various forms of volume, they become very powerful tools indeed.

Are you really in Niles? Old stomping grounds... my folks live in between Edwardsburg and Union... we used to raise some hell over there and then flee into the country lol. Heading up there after Xmas for some much deserved R&R time.


Take care,
Shane

Yeah I actually am in Niles. I used to go to church in Edwardsburg. Went to school in Berrien Springs. I never thought I would talk to anyone on here that even knew Niles existed. I will look into cumulative delta and see what that's all about.

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 sixtyseven 
Golden Bay, New Zealand
 
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Itís kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I donít mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable.[/url]

Long may your success continue. Consider keeping your size small for the time being. Once you have a couple hundred + trades under your belt. The last thing you want is to ramp up your size, and find out the recent success is just a random out performing of your long run expectancy.

More than one trader laments their early 'success', only to fall back (and below) their mean with much bigger size.

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 Rrrracer 
Webinar Host
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spetscom View Post
Yeah I actually am in Niles. I used to go to church in Edwardsburg. Went to school in Berrien Springs. I never thought I would talk to anyone on here that even knew Niles existed. I will look into cumulative delta and see what that's all about.


There actually wasn't too much trouble to get into in Niles, we used it as an escape route from South Bend Small world. Be glad to help out any way I can, hit me up if need be.

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  #40 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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spetscom View Post
Hey everyone, I see this thread is still getting replies so I figure I should update everyone. At this point, I have found two markets that I love to trade. CL & NQ. Me and my buddy whoís very good with statistics and mathematics are developing an algorithm on the side for fun. Itís actually profitable, but needs a ton of work.

So far, things are going well for my discretionary trading. My risk:reward is about 1:3 or better. I tend to play intraday momentum. I generally stay in positions for 10-30 minutes. I have concrete risk management, but I do not have concrete entry parameters. Every moment in the market is unique, so I use my own judgement to decide whether or not I enter. I have turned a 2k account into 3.5k using this method and have had very few losers, and most were small losers on top of that.

I notice a lot of futures traders use Volume profiling, and I feel like there is something there that may be significant, I just donít quite understand its use. I overthink a lot already, and when I have even 1 moving average on my screen I can begin to overthink and not take a position all together. Thatís why I only use price action and volume + tape.

Itís kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I donít mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable. It is weird for me because everyone talks about how oh Trading needs to be so methodical and rigid, which it does in terms of risk management, but as far as entry parameters, setups, etc. it just doesnít work for me. I perform much better by not adhering to that idea.

However, I am interested in volume profiling, as well as the delta thing. Iím always open to learning new things about trading that might improve it.


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Good results over time dont lie.Learning is very important as well.Just be careful,dont get sidetracked,and stop doing what is working
Bob

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  #41 (permalink)
 martinhunting 
melbourne victoria australia
 
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Hi!
So you are just 18 years old and already trading that Is great.

First I would like to remind you that very few people are actually making money out of day trading, however on saying that it can be done. Takes patience and education. For me education was the key.
What I suggest that instead of back testing and looking for a system you would be better off studying support and resistance. There is a indicator in Futures io for Ninja Trader 8 called superdemzones that will place support and resistance automatically on your charts.
Secondly have a understanding of volume profiling on the vertical axis their is quite a lot of information on the topic now and some profiling indicators in Futures io. I use Rancho Denero profile indicators you have to purchase them

Thirdly get some understanding of the Elliott wave theory. I trade using the Elliott wave theory I have a subscription with Elliott Wave International there is educational resources on there web site if you are interested.

That is the direction I have taken with trading, I only trade the one indices, I suggest start with the Emini. lot of information about the Emini.

I hope this will help and best wishes

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