Where do I go from here?

September 21st, 2018, 07:26 PM

eudamonia

Since it seems like you've got a pretty good head on your shoulders I'll chime in here with my 2 cents.

Read a few of the accounts of the pros here on Futures.io. Start with page 121 of Big Mike's journal:

This thread was the starting point for my own turning point in trading. The number one piece of advice (that most people won't follow) is to swing trade. That is where the big money is made and it requires more than $5k in your account. Other things that may help you:

1) There are no certainties, no perfect indicator. Get 90% of that stuff off the screen. Use some simple MAs or your eyes and look at the longer timeframes (daily and weekly). The big question I ask myself every day is - are we in a trend or a range? A 5 year old should be able to determine this just by looking. If you can't figure it out then don't trade that day;

2) Hold your winners significantly longer than your losers (see above regarding swing trading). Also, you must add to your winners. Read Mike's thread or TigerTrader's threads for more details on how to do that;

3) Setup a journal and post it here;

4) Get detailed stats - excel or TraderVue;

5) Read about deliberate practice (read Enhancing Trading Performance by Dr. Brett Steenbarger) and use those tools to continue to hone your edge.

Good luck!

Hey thank you so much man, I am away from home and on my mobile, but as soon as I get home tonight I�m gonna check out those links you posted. It�s a relief to hear what you say that about indicators, I really only felt like a simple MA is all you need for indicators. And of course volume bars and T&S. Will reply when I read those links. Ty!

Btw what do you mean on detailed statistics? In terms of my trades I place or on the ES

September 21st, 2018, 09:31 PM

What system are you using to trade stocks? Is is purely fundamental?

Sounds like you have a great head on your shoulders and setting a great foundation. I would suggest you try and use what your using now. If you are looking for volume there are tons of volume methods if you want to build an algo then there are tons of ways to do that. I trade with 3 emas and a OHLC indicator, basically looking for S/R and intra day trend. You can add thousands of indicators and pay thousands for software but if you cant read the market then none of that is going to help. I would recommend that you put 1 ema/sma on a chart ( I like tick charts) of your liking and just start to write down what happens. What happens when we get to the COY or the HOY or an ONH once you see that then look to see what signals the market gives and how the ES moves.

I would also recommend trading something else besides the ES I really like the NQ. It does move very fast but if your wrong then it lets you know and then sets you up for another chance to get a trade in. The ES is sooooo thick also the NQ is about 60% cheaper then the ES.

What it is really going to boil down to is deciding that type of trader you want to be and until you experience the majority of styles then its going to be a little hard to get comfortable. Try swing trading,scalping ( my favorite ) , systematic, news/fundamental based there are a millions different type of trading styles... you could use the moon to gauge cycles in the market lol there a tons of ways to trade.

I would defiantly start a journal

-P

September 22nd, 2018, 12:22 AM

spetscom

Hey thank you so much man, I am away from home and on my mobile, but as soon as I get home tonight I’m gonna check out those links you posted. It’s a relief to hear what you say that about indicators, I really only felt like a simple MA is all you need for indicators. And of course volume bars and T&S. Will reply when I read those links. Ty!

Btw what do you mean on detailed statistics? In terms of my trades I place or on the ES

Both. You want to track what you are doing in great detail as it will provide insights you would otherwise miss. Additionally, you want to understand the market(s) you are trading. For example, FuturesTrader71 and Quantifiable Edges are good folks to check out - they both keep good statistics on how the market is performing compared to historical results. Instead of just parroting what they do my recommendation is to try to take those concepts and build your own statistical models (basically a simple way to do this is tracking in excel).

Here is a real world example: I know that statistically I perform far better on Outside Range days than other trading days. Therefore, I keep statistics on how often these occur and when they tend to occur. This helps me better prepare for those types of days.

Finally, if you aren't already I highly recommend spending the money to become an Elite member here. The content available to elite members is very high quality and there is a lot of content for the price.

September 22nd, 2018, 05:43 AM

A lot of what eudamonia said. Plus reading a diversity of threads & watching a bunch of webinars here on the site to see which styles of trading speak to you.

There is no point in the act of placing trades if you don’t understand what kind of trader you are or want to be.

FWIW I am convinced that this exact behavior led me down a rabbit hole of bad habits & indecisiveness that then takes years to unlearn.

Figure out who you want to be as a trader, then figure out what you need to be good at to become that trader, THEN engage with the market to hone those skills. (Assuming a discretionary approach).

P.S.: build your own worldview in trading. Take advise but not blindly. Be patient and try to enjoy the process. But also enjoy life along the way - there is nothing more pitiful than a high-performing trader making 100’s of thousands per year who’s got no other passions and no other people in life.

Good luck!
ST.

Edit: you’ll need to be an elite-member to access most of the great threads / journals. It’s probably the best investment you’ll make in trading.

September 23rd, 2018, 03:33 AM

Some things that could affect the market:
Thursday action was good but didn’t like Friday. SP was up by not much and then gave away all the gains closing down a little almost unchanged. Obviously it’s having trouble holding the gains. Don’t forget the market went up against huge negative bias by market strategists and it does not look like it’s going to break out after Friday action. May worth closing out longs. Where is the action next week? not sure but definitely lots of things will happen when OPEC meets next week. Oil looks interesting but I will be on the sideline...

September 23rd, 2018, 09:16 PM

Few more observations,

Quoting

So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy.

I recommend that you look at my health related threads in off-topic section. What I think is the optimal setup is to setup 2 computer workstations, one is a standing station and the other is a seated station (alternative, get an electronic standing desk). Get a Concept 2 rowing machine. Every 1-2 hours do 1-2 minutes of 85%-100% intensity rowing, air squats (or brain squats), and wall push-ups for a total of around 2-5 minutes approximately every hour and finally take a 45-60 minute walk every day. Consider to add in weight training at the gym a few times a week, as well, and swimming.

Quoting

I am completely consumed with trading. I spend all of my time trying to improve.

Balance is difficult but has value. As Arnold might say, be hungry. If one is consumed, it is something that happens to one while hunger is generated.

On trying to improve, improvement is possible but might be overrated. I see trading success more as more of a triangle: skill/edge, mentality, and resources. These are internal and must be balanced with the external opportunity set which is never static.

Good luck!

September 24th, 2018, 05:51 PM

Man guys thank you so much for the help and advice. I made it a point to set up my monitors exactly how I like them last night. I have a simple MA and volume on my charts, and I'm gonna keep it this way for the sake of consistency (I never really used a ton of indicators anyways). I am going to be starting my trading journal tonight as well.

October 4th, 2018, 09:03 AM

Few thoughts:
Just an update of previous post and I was not sure where else to post and wanted to keep it together. I am not a technical analyst by any means but judging from big technical analysts crowd here I will try to give some technical analysis. SP is pre market -12 now although it was down more earlier. If it goes down further it might provide buying opportunity. 2910 to 2915. If you are patient unlike me then may wait until near close today. Find the bottom.
Afterwards, however if there is a rally may worth closing longs +15 points. It may take holding it today and tomorrow.
Do your own due diligence.

October 4th, 2018, 01:30 PM

soumen

Just an update of previous post and I was not sure where else to post and wanted to keep it together.

You could start a trade journal just collecting all your market thoughts together there. Lots of trade journals detailing people's ideas about the markets rather than detailing trades.
There is a Trading Journal forum for non-elite members (along with the Elite Trading Journal forum also available to members).

October 14th, 2018, 12:28 PM

spetscom

Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait

. I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade.

I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money.

I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!)

I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on.

Thanks everyone,
Cade

First, let me congradulate you for being interested in trading and investing at such a young age. Although I was young when I started, I wasn't 18 yrs old, so kudos for that.

A couple things I picked up from your post: it might be a good idea to stepback and gain some perspective. Sometimes fresh new ideas come when you step away from the markets for a bit. I don't know how long that would be for you, but you'll know b/c trading ideas that seemed like it couldn't come together before, starts to come together once your mind is refreshed. Sounds corny, but its absolutely true.

Yes, I can understand what you are saying about the flow of a market. Whether its the s&p's or cattle, there is a distinct flow and characteristic to every market. Part of trading is to understand that flow, but that's only part. Work on one trading method, come up with some rules for it and trade it that one method. In mark douglas's book "the disciplined trader" he mentions that you need to break down your strategies to just one and then implement and test it before running it live. Also sounds like your both a coder and a trader. I would suggest maybe just to be a trader first and test out that one strategy.

Here's some examples on how to choose some potential strategies:

1.breakdown ES into 3 quadrants: a)First quadrant is high volume, high volatility period (9:30am to 11am est). Reversals, breakouts, LOD,HOD could be some of the areas you look at. b)2nd quadrant is much slower probably because lunch and to be honest, alot of traders made their money in the 1st quadrant and have now quit for the day. this would be perfect time to test moving averages, trend trading, pivots and swing trading. this time frame tends to be from 11am to 2pm est. c)3rd quadrant is usually when volatility comes back and sometimes a sharp reversal headed into 5pm close. all of the strategies I listed in the first two quadrants would be applicable in the third quadrant since it can be the most unexpected at times if a reversal doesn't happen.

2. Only test shorts. If you've traded futures, forex or stocks for any length of time, then you know that the market moves alot faster coming down. Having said that, there should be a trading setups around just this one phenomenon, whether its moving averages, trend trading or what have you.

3.Losing is part of the game. I say that not to patronize you as you didn't know that already, but to remind you that we are not going to win every trade. If you have indeed mastered the psychological aspect of trading, then we know that every trade you enter will not be a winner. that is the goal mind you, but every trade will not be a winner. Knowing that, create a your orders with a predetermined stop loss that is half of your take profit order. Yes, I know let your profits run. I understand that and know many that follow this rule, but its difficult for that to happen and see till its full fruition. So if you have a 3 point stoploss, then your take profit order needs to be around 5.5 to 6points. This is only an example as I do not know your acct size but your ratio should be close to 2:1 profits over losses. Now even that sometimes cannot happen all the time, so determine when you do u slide that stop loss to breakeven and/or to a small profit once your trade is headed to your profit target. Just because losing is part of the game, you don't need the market to go all the way to your stop loss either. if you can cut that loss even further by exiting quickly on your losses, when you profit, you should be able to overcome your losses with just one or two wins.

4.Is ES the right market for you? Why not the russell or the dow? Just throwing it out there. Reason being is the russell 2000 (RTY not TF) has less herky jerkyness (i know this isn't even a word..lol) and can be less stressful b/c each tick is only worth $5 and not $12.50 like ES. Russell might be more conducive to your personality or trading style..test it and try it out.

In conclusion, alot of successful traders make their targets and move away from their charts and computers when they hit their goal. There should also be a goal on losses also. Once you hit it, stop and don't trade on your live platform. If you still feel the desire to trade or test, move to your demo platform. All in all though I'd say to gain some perspective, go do something else other than trading for 16 hrs, so that when you come back, your mind is fresh and brimming with ideas! Sounds like you have alot going for you so don't burn yourself out before your 25yrs old buddy

Where do I go from here?

Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Where do I go from here?