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I was wondering if anyone is trading after 11am ET. The ES does seem to move during these times but I find it more difficult to get a feel for the market after 11am ET. I'm an orderflow trader using Footprint charts and Jigsaw tools. Any input would be greatly appreciated.
Regards,
Semi
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
@msemryck I suspect information traders, system traders, and advanced ML algos start to gain advantage as the day progresses. There are tendencies that seem like they might occur with some regularity but generally it depends on the day structure and volatility. It might help to think about the conditions as to why you do better say in the morning and how volatility might affect trader psychology. It might also be worth thinking about or looking for continuation or reversal patterns.
As for tape reading all day, I do not recommend it. It is generally too taxing and mistakes become more likely. If you have all day to devote, you are probably better off either transitioning to research, transitioning to system trades, taking a break, or picking your spots where you want to do business but otherwise ignoring.
Generally, volume fades even in the /ES into the London session close - Volume will occasionally pick back up into the New York session close. Part of my strategy when trading the /ES intraday is to line up my setups coming into these time periods.
From the New York open to around 11:00 ET, there is a lot of beginning-of-day trading from US traders and still a decent amount of participation from Europeans, who will soon need to finalize the trades they took before the US open, and/or who are taking advantage of the higher volume beginning with the NY open.
The "European session" closes at 11 ET, meaning that the European traders, who came in around 3AM ET, are closing up shop and going home (figure about a six-hour difference from New York to much of Europe.) About that time we're also approaching the New York/Eastern US lunch hour. It may seem ridiculous that lunch on the East coast is a factor in trading, but it's a pattern that has stood up for decades.
All this together has resulted in the period from about 11:00 or 11:30 to mid-afternoon to be called "the doldrums." You can expect much less trading, and generally less price change, during that time. As the afternoon rolls on, volume will pick up, in the last hour and especially half-hour of the RTH session as positions get finalized for the day.
You can usually rely on this: high volume before 11:00, mid-day fade, afternoon pickup. Some days will fool you, of course, especially if there's news. But this is the general pattern.
Precisely my point. Thanks for elaborating. This is exactly why any trades that I have opened near the opening bell, I look to close or reverse into 11:00AM.
Right. If the day is going to see a reversal of trend, it's generally more likely to happen about then. In any case, this is a likely time for a change, one way or another.
