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Es Order Flow+ and EW Marriage?

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Es Order Flow+ and EW Marriage?

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Avon, Ohio
Posts: 30 since Feb 2018
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Okay order flow pros, this is what I am seeing, and what I am doing with Ninja’s new Order Flow+ Suite. Please let me know how far off base I am ( or not ) in this application of order flow. The image shows the ES 03-18 on a traditional 10 minute chart – with the extended trading hours data series selected. The insert in the middle is 5 bars with the 5m Volumetric Indicator applied, the Trade Deterctor set to print 50+ block trades, and bar statistics set to % delta /bar. It is zoomed out to show the bottom the market just reached – the white arrow. Data series is regular trading hours.

First “full disclosure” - I know the best order flow traders ( including John from NoBS Trading ) say to “turn off your charts and just watch the DOM”, but Ninja’s DOM isn’t much help and I can’t drop another grand on something like Jigsaw or Trading Technologies, so this is it for me for a while. Before I began learning order flow this past month, I traded Elliot Waves and Harmonic Patterns / Fibonacci – so please forbear me a bit for using a chart!

So my strategy has been tweaked with order flow help as follows. I use 10 minute candlestick chart with MTPredictor (MTP) to show me only major swings (white traces), trading signals (TS) and to help me do isolated Elliot Wave counts ( in this case an A-B-C corrective wave has been identified). I also use a Stochastic RSI to “get me in the ball park “ of a possible overbought or oversold market.

So the tweak is this- when MTP prints a new high/low, AND the Stochastic is either o/b or o/s, AND I have either a MTP signal or a valid EW count, instead of entering, I switch to the 5 min volumetric chart and start watching volume flow, once order flow shows market absorption, exhaustion, and then acceleration to the opposite side as indicated by the order prints, I enter. I exit when the opposite happens with volume.

As you can see, there was sell side volume delta me for three bars including one order for 290 and another for 174 contracts – large red circles. But price couldn’t break through and make a newer low. Price didn’t confirm volume. Then on the last bar, the blue one, price moves one tick lower then I see a lot of Buy orders execute. I’m slow but I get in at 2714.75 five ticks into the move, and when the Blue candle closed I added one additional contract, and set my target for the minimum Elliot wave 3 target as indicated by MTP. My trigger was the volume change direction to buy delta with the printing of a bunch of 50+ buy orders at a technical level.

I flattened when price hit the 1.27 extension of the B-C leg aide by the printing of two negative delta volumetric bars – 74 ticks total. It was near noon, on a Friday, and I had to leave for an appointment.

As it turns out price moved the whole way to wave point three where it now sits at the 3.14 extension! Oh well, I guess if I had been sitting there I would have still closed the trade, and then jumped back when there was no volume follow through.

A couple of questions. 1st, is this a proper read and utilization for volume / order flow? 2nd, look at the 10 minute chart and you can see huge blocks of 500+ orders – the ones with the question marks. I see a huge buy order at the high, and a big sell orders at the lows. How do you order flow pros interpret this? Are the big boys running stops and then entering in the opposite direction, or are they trying to move the market more in the same direction and failed? Can this be used as a filter for a reversal? In other words – when reaching a technical level, and we see big blocks printing in the direction of the trend, should we get ready for the market to reverse?

Thanks for looking and any feedback appreciated, flaming, critique, suggestion all welcome.


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February 23, 2018

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