I've been going through my trading journal and my biggest issue is miss judging what i call market direction.
A little back ground info first:
Mainly trading the Emini, GC when there is a flood to "safehavens"
Each morning I looking at the NASDAQ economic news release and a few of my other favorite news sites.
Plot the ONH & ONL as well as a any major swing points that i see that the market might hit , try to keep from 3-4 lines on the screen. I trade a 900 tick chart and have a 4500 tick chart open for longer term trend. I use Bands and MACD mainly trading short term swings off the bands or major break outs. Use a systematic approach( can go into detail if anyone would like)
Now back to my question, Ill use today as an example ( 9/19/17) big drop at 9:30 then we mainly consolidate for the rest of the morning ( i turned my charts off at about 10:45 so if there are any big moves excuse me)
Now with my system I had one trade at open and that was it, does any one have any have any method for judging these days, or does everyone change the way they trade depending on the day, and if you do how do know before its already to late? i understanding fading tops and bottoms and maybe i need to look into changing my system but i am trying to avoid jumping around from system to system.
I understand that not everyday is going to be a +/- 10 point day but on these days is everyone staying out, is there some "indicator/method" you are using or are you changing up your style.
I am working on incorporating order flow and volume profile into my trading but even on days like today it, i am unsure if that would have even helped much.
Rant over with.. if anyone has any suggestions or "secret sauce" you can send my way let me know!
Thank you
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Well I do try to estimate the direction before the start of the day and also the range and the high & low (along with many other points and things).
I have not yet mastered this - otherwise I would be rich and on to other goals in my life.
As to secret sauce I don't really feel that you really understand the nature of the question you are asking, that aside I will offer :
About all things, not just trading, unless you believe something is possible you don't have a chance of do it.
Just try something see what happens adjust and modify.
Douglas Taylor offered a sample of this.
He wrote down the HOD and LOD each day in two columns and to the left of the HOD he wrote the change in the High and to the right of LOD he wrote the change in the low.
He studied how days moved:
eg. started close to yesterday's high move up a little and then falls
He made names for types of days and then he looked for pattern in day types
(this was for grain futures)
So to add clarity to the above, I would suggest something like Taylor (keeping your o/n H and L ) then before the day make a sketch of the day ahead (as in the eg above). Then at the end of the day make a sketch of the actual day - comparing the estimate to the actual and see if there was something that would have guided you to it.
Good luck
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peace, love and joy to you
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I will admit i am not always the best at explaining my self, let me give this another shot..
99% of the time i am either buying/shorting a breakout or a pull back. I've tend to notice that i miss maybe a trade or two in the first 10-15 minutes ( sometimes ) when i am trying to gauge the market and that's fine i would rather sit out out for a few minutes then give my money away. I pay close attention to s/r levels and what we are rejection and that tends to help alot, that also shows me what i am going to be mainly trading for the day if we come out and a eating stop losses left and right then i'm going to be trading a lot of break outs but if it more of a slow grinding day ill be a pull back to the bands trader until we have a shift. I was really trying to see if anyone had maybe an early warning/signal of what the market is going to do for the day that i could incorporate into what i am currently doing.
I add to my journal if we open and double bottom and reverse or so on but i do like what you mentioned about adding the exact highs and lows, might have to add another column to my journal.
Thank you
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Using tick charts on the NQ/ES I've been successful in identifying areas where I expect a reversal or bounce. I haven't been successful in determining the direction of the market before the market open, so instead I identify where I expect the market to turn/pause/reverse and then day trade those areas.
Ive added the PriceActionSwing Indicator and that helps me see some patterns that it would normally miss if i was just looking at the ticks bounce of the bands.
And who knows what im searching for might not exist , ive looked into using the vix and never become to fond of that but i pay attention it at times.
I've used the NQ before with good results, but that seems to be more of a warning of what is about happen on the ES rather then a sentiment of the overall market/direction.
Like i said ^^^ i might be searching for a genie in a bottle lol
Hi Zoraver
Could you kindly tell us how do you determine the direction of the market successfully before the open. Let's start with that and help each other out. Thanks
In my Humble opinion there are few thinking to go about it.
1) If it is possible to estimate what will the day be like high/low volatility range etc. Or Low volatility low range.
Each type of day have a different trading setup you are looking for. or not trade at all.
2) Not long ago a trader told me that she is trading only the first two hours of the day and than close the trading day to continue do other "stuff". Something you might want to consider maybe depends at what type of day we have.
3) Each day have a pattern of how it is going to look with high certainty find it.
Also some say they focus only on ES or Gold or... Some say they trade all instruments as along as there is action.
Find what is working for you.
4)Luck is important !!!
Respectfully,
EMWL
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as a day trader you don't need to know in advance, what the day will be like, just wait for PA and then take your trades, thats it
put HOY LOY and COY from the RTH session on your chart and look for SA, BB (failed BOs) and breakout pullback (follow the big boys)
for a more granular approach also put the shallowest TLs from the prior day on your chart
also check out this blog Nine Transitions: Search results for trend day
I've started doing something similar but not to this extent could you explain your labeling system?
and HOY/LOY/COY ??I mark the ONH ONL 930 open and have the previous day market on chart ( 4500 tick )
As well as a daily chart open on the same screen to keep an eye out for any major lvls, but the way you have things marked on your chart is very interesting to me... my entire approach is PA based mixed with a few indicators for entries.
Are you using hard tp's or waiting for a signal to exit ? One of my biggest issues is im either getting some of the move .. normally the first part or if i miss that entry for some reason then i have to wait awhile for the next entry...
What im trying to work on is entering ( i trade two contracts ) letting first one hit a small t/p then just letting it run until it signals me out ( normally double bottom or failed brk out ect..)
HOY is high of yesterday, low and close all from the regular session (I like gaps :-))
I only use TLs, horizontal S/R like swings, entry prices from signal bars and H/L of entry bars
I also use measured moves of obvious trades taken, e.g. SA HOY, measure your actual risk and TP at multiples of that
here are some of the abbreviations (warning ;-), very comprehensive) https://plus.google.com/u/0/+ThomasDeutschmannPATrader/posts/2garqHysjAj
I put some important levels from the daily on my 5min chart
TP is what I'm working on too, it's tough to swing, but e.g. Y there would have been a short at around HOY and trend termination just before the close of the day (50pt+)
(the cyan colored arrows are trend termination)
I've found that if i use hard t/p's im much more consistent and its less stressful, i just check to see if my last t/p is near a s/r lvl and if it i might move it +/- what i see fit.
But i do really like the idea of writing on the chart, i have my journal open but having alot of it on the chart is a good idea.
This is how i saw the day . took about 5 trades mainly what i call middle band breaks. Working on taking less trades and focusing on a few setups rather then shorting/buying every s/r lvl.
What gives you a BB or SA entry? pure PA?
How are you playing the gap? buying/selling in the opposite direction? .. yes the majority of gaps close but not all of them, curious to know how you play a gap.
nice chart, can see the fBOs above below the boundaries of the bulk of the PA very well
BB a bull body and SA a bear body are for the strong BO, usually the 1st attempt to reverse such BO fails
or can also BB a bull bar after the BO from a bull flag IN A TREND
trends are strictly HL/HH for bull and vice versa
in a bull channel one can tolerate a small failed breakout below a HL (bull), I call this a CXT an expanding triangle in a CH, kinda PB that runs some stops and quickly reverses in the with trend direction, in a CH price needs to take out the last TWO HLs to terminate that CH
Very interesting, many of these things i am currently loosely doing but this could defiantly add a little more structure, i will have to finish the blog later tonight need a computer break... you wouldn't happen to be apart of a trades chat/group would you? been looking for a few people who have a similar style of trade.
that blog has a couple hundred of posts :-) (if you're talking about ninetransitions)
it's the best stuff I know on the net about PA
I read all of Al Brooks books, watched his vids and trading room...
but this guy (Cadaver) has a far more structured approach than Al Brooks
I'm currently working my way through this blog and like you mention it is structured very very well, a lot of his trades are what i use to call when i traded FX a mean reversion trade. When price would move up at a rapid pace then fail to move up any more you would basically looking for an entry back to the mean/sma's that would normally line up with a s/r lvl
His labeling system is going to take a little while to get use to , i tired using a few of them today while i traded and it defiantly helps keep you in tune on whats going on in the chart.
do you only keep the LOY and HOY for the previous day you don't do a Low of 2 days or ect
yes, right, mean reversion would apply to trades taken in a trading range, like fBO (failed BO) and fH2/fL2 3,4 (failed high) or WfBO (wedge failed BO)
when there is a trend, like today, I try to stay WT only, B PBs to the TL
I have a couple more levels from the daily chart, that I watch, this is current daily chart
can see nicely bears B back some shorts at that level, where they BB earlier, also right at a measured move of that 1st PB (1P) trade short
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I'm not currently using one but if you have any questions you are always more then welcome to pm me or ask on here. Glad to help with anything as long as people are willing to put the work in on there end.
Are you using all the abbreviations in the glossary? I really like the idea of labeling moves and it has been helping but there is a S**T ton, or do you keep the page on your desk/wall.
can you add this to your chart? currently, im just printing the sheet out and using a few that help with the way i trade but if i could add a drop down to my own charts that would be awesome.
Hey, what do you guys think about PATs Price Action Trading Manual. I just came across this and seem like similar style to how i like to trade and was just wondering what are your thoughts on his strategy and how effective is it?
Ive never used it, i learned the majority of my PA info/skills from a bunch of FX courses and books but I would suggest you look at the links posted above i really wish i would of had that stuff a year ago. There is a PDF that is over 400 pages and filled with great info on the ES. I mainly trade the ES but you could easily take that info and use it else where.
Im currently working my way through the PDF page by page and taking tons of notes idk your current skill lvl but this is some of the best info for free I've ever ran across. It will be printed out and on my desk very very soon.
Excellent!... good to hear that coming from you. I've been actively trading stocks for the past 18 months using just traditional technical analysis and i am just getting into futures now. Day by day i see myself leaning toward just regular intraday PA trading style and I think this approach to trading fits my personality the best. The thing is that there is just SOO much information out there and without a lot of knowledge and experience it is hard to filter out the bad information. I would love some recommendations from the veteran traders out there on the material that maybe one should read as a beginner.
I takes time I don't know what degree of success you've had with stocks but what ive found works best is find something that fits you and just tweak it until it feels perfect, i know im constantly looking to try and tweak my trading that doesn't mean im jumping from one "holy grail " to another but im sure everyone on here has improvements that can be made... now if they admit it is another thing lol.
The way i go about digesting all the info is write everything down and keep tons of notes, its what works for me.
This will sound counter productive but if you can be a break even trader you can make it.
It will take time and its a snails race at best, i remember i got into this stuff after seeing the cars bottles and other lies but its extremely rewarding when you hit that "ahha" moment .
All about making fast cash and stuff like that spend time around the fx market and its filled with signal sellers and people selling the dream. Obviously we are all attracted to this because of the money but when i first started out like im sure a lot of people did they thought they would install some software and the ATM would be open for business .
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haha, yeah many people have that illusion... if it was that easy there would be many more millionaires walking around... trust me, the word would get around fast
Getting back on topic i do want to keep this geared towards P/A and direction with the ES so if there are any other questions about starting out shoot me a PM,
Hello guys
Interesting topic.
Right now I trade NQ exclusively but I also like CL. From my experience, with indexes its tough to predict the direction compared to CL.
I like daily pivots for the context, and use Stochastics.
Here is what I think would happen with NQ for today.
I am wrong most of the time, so please take it with a grain of salt.
We currently broke the high of yesterday on the ES lets see if it holds if so ill be looking for some longs if not could go back into a range play day, but markets seems to be a little sluggish this morning might be calling it quits soon
I caught part of the move in the morning but then gave back half of the profits trying to play the channel ... i'm done for today as well... don't need another red day hehe...
might want to look at 1) trading with a hard t/p i use 2 points a lot or use multiple t/p's so you can grab some of move then let one contract run till your signaled out by a candle or some support/resistance lvl
if it checks or pulls back to 6694.25 area i will be looking for a long broke the high, lets see if there is any follow through.. its currently outside the BB and i prefer to skip those trades.
Normally dont trade the NQ but if today is as slow as the past 4 might be looking else where.
Is that the 60 minute chart? How long do you normally hold your trades?
usually count around 12 to eighteen bars from the open of the day or the open of the NY market but not always and that usually will give me the close to the high of the day or the low and that is that
What t/f are you using because I'm sure it will.be different for all and why not just mark out the actual highs and lows? I could see if your using that for the 10 o'clock turn that we get alot but for guessing the top and bottom idk id have to see what t/f you use.
just watch price action from the open and it helps to wait to figure out direction. mostly scalp the 5 minute time frame on the es but do look at the 1hour and the daily. my idicators are just the rsi and the 9,20,200 exp moving averages. very patient but the es is not my only instrument that is traded
Yeah we have a similar plan I just don't count bars, I wait for p/a signals and go from there, i mainly use the 4500 tick and sometime the 900 depending on the type of movement/volume we are experiencing. I mainly trade crude but keep an eye on the 6e crude and gold, how do you use rsi? I've experimented with adding it to mtnplan and it does work but I'm already using 3 indicators and any more seems like a little much.
use the rsi on extreme Over bought or over sell that is all 80-90 or 30-20 of course it isn't 100% but wha is. Have been using the Fork indicator lately with very good results.
I personally cannot explain it as well as Emilio Sabatino. Home. he is the expert. just recently started using it. kind of like trend lines on steroids. easy to apply and to take off helps somewhat with direction using the pivots of swings in any time frame. Emilio likes using Options which personally have never used. You will like Emillio PC he is not
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looks like he use's andrews pitch fork for 99% of his trading, same kind of P/A swing trading just different indicators.
looking to see if the ES moves up and if it does will be looking for pull back entries if not will be looking for additional range plays today, just under 200k vol at 9:11am hopefully we can see some moves today,
curious how this whole Syria ordeal will affect the markets,
daily chart is right at the middle BB any sort of engulfing candle could set the tone bear/bull for the next few days.
!!! 
... i'm done for today as well... don't need another red day hehe...