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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action
About the image attached (15min chart) after the bar that shows the highest volume during the retracement (after the second uptrust) we have an inside bar. In this case, do you consider it a test of supply or a test of demand? If you can talk a little bit more what conditions determine if we have a test of demand or supply. Not sure but from your past examples, i might have concluded we have a test of supply and this is a no supply condition given volume was low.
Also, as you are using Ninja, can you turn the trade markers "on" for your entry/exit?
No it doesn't meet the criteria for a test, the spread and volume are too high. We don't come from immediate strength or weakness. Contextually incorrect. The bar in question is genuinely trying to push up, it dips under the previous close reverses to close firm. We note, that it was unable to test and the break the highs, the buying was being capped.
Unfortunately @trendisyourfriend, the art of testing and the current conditions along with examples would take along time to go through. The basics I have given in a previous S&P chronicle.
Due to company restrictions I am unable to turn on trade markers, however, going forward I would like to produce a swing based Chronicle using my personal account. It would be a good process to go through stock selection (using pure Wyckoff) with a variety of instruments; commodities, currencies and stocks.
@trendisyourfriend - I would interpret this as no demand in a previous area of supply. Small narrow spread, no volume unable to rally, does this makes sense? yes look to the left, we have supply. With this method the bars have to be used in context. Demand is in control (overall) in the immediate its supply that has the reigns from the upthrust, and as we revisit this area, wheres the demand that we saw previously? A no demand in a previous area of supply is an excellent set up
In your last chronicle you wrote something which captured my interest when you wrote: "Bar D - this bar is also climatic, it doesn't make sense contextually."
However, using VWAP as a measure of value we can see this level where we bounced with strength occured at the middle of the prior week value area. Given the overall strength of the bulls since the presidential election, expecting a reaction at the prior week VWAP makes sense. See this picture with notes...
@trendisyourfriend - the bar in question was using relative contextual properties, the last 6 bars or so ( the sell off before hand) from my perspective this was suspect behaviour, odd, out of place - like a polar bear in the desert.
Using VWAP and other indicators you have more or less drawn the same conclusion, just different routes, it's fascinating how a 100 traders can draw the same conclusions from displaying the info in a different way. Personally I like the simplicity of volume and price action. I know a great trader who uses just bars, no volume or trend lines. ( I would suggest if you can to try and practice with just bars, improves chart reading skills considerably, then adding volume is a bonus)
I place no bearing on fundamental analysis, (unless for investment purposes, holding for 3 years +), it clouds judgement and has an unfavourable affect the subconscious, we hold biases whether we are aware or not. No news, no fundamentals. Although I have one trade set up using the weekly oil inventory reports on Wednesdays, as its very fruitful and the quarterly earnings reports for obvious reasons.
I appreciate your thread. I have a question regarding how you take your entries. It looks like you like to enter on the close of a bar that is setting up for you. If that is correct, do you usually enter a limit order at that bar's close or just enter at the market. I have been spotting some upthrust/springs and no demand/no supply setups and have found that the market will often shoot away at the close of the bar so that a limit order will often not get filled, but if I enter a market order, I will usually get filled 1 tick above the closing price of the bar. What do you usually do?
