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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action


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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action

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  #201 (permalink)
 sudhirc 
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Watching for a break to the upside yesterday afternoon, too bad it happened last night. Beautiful. Thank you @Feibel. Hope it is okay to post occasional screenshots in your journal

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  #202 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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gizmoisone View Post
I drew the channels a few days back, nice to see it test the lower (15Nov) and then the upper (29Nov)
Wish I had bought some of those 80 odd points!


Appreciate the contribution, however I would just like to point you in the right direction.

Structure is extremely important, one of the core basic foundation elements of trading that spans across many different methodologies. What makes S&R and channels and other structural features so strong is the ability to read them and importantly that everyone ''draws'' the same channels, as the mass psychology of these levels have a pinch of self fulfilling prophecy to them.
The beginning of your channel is very ambiguous and not clean, very few professionals (if any) will be drawing/using that channel, l understand that as traders we need some what of an ''artistic licence'' and ultimately it's down to the individual and their interpretation, but in most cases especially channels (as they are the most difficult), keep it simple.

The correct use of the channel via the daily has been applied (green) and being honest, I wouldn't hold too much faith in this channel, it's not the best.

The purple line, is the reason why the last bar on your chart held and bounced (along with the demand zone), this is a diagonal axis line (very rare) and dates back to mid July. If you go through the old Chronicles, this was plotted way back months ago. Bar E was the first test and look at the response ''professionals'' are active at this line.
A few will be thinking why doesn't the break after C&D have high volume, it doesn't need to; the action via C&D was to absorb the selling, the fact we broke in a fairly orderly manner (no surges in volume) gives us confirmation that supply (upside friction) has been depleted. hence the 5 day low volume rally thereafter.

Please refer to the PDF for further clarification, it was a great observation and I encourage questions/observations.

Hope this helps,

F

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  #203 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Sometimes it seems that trend lines are random, or perhaps that there are many trendlines. Also, I have noticed at times the trend line doesn't necessarily fall at the top or the bottom of a wide range candle, but along the more consolidative-type candles afterwards.
Also, I wonder at times if a trendline is more like a trendzone or trend-band rather than just a line.

Anyway, for your perusal, I'd like to submit the following channel with a midline. The candles I labeled were the ones used to find the trendline.




And perhaps, the above channel is really only half of the story. Here's the other half below, equal width:



"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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  #204 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
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Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Trending (low volume pullback setup)
Structure (various time frames)
Waves
Effort vs. Result
No supply
High volume testing (setup)
Bar by Bar analysis
Multiple Time Frames

and a price action aberration (extremely important)

PDF attached (4 pages)

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  #205 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Thank you very much for the write-up. Your analysis has been helping me tremendously with my own understanding of the market.

I have a question for you. On page 3, the 5min bar F that was part of the complex correction. That qualifies as a spring off support I believe, why not enter a 2nd long in that location? I think I would have been trapped long in this location were I trading it.


"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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  #206 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Please find PDF in reference to the potential spring

Hope this helps,

F

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  #207 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Thank you very much for the answer, and your time. Makes a lot of sense.

"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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  #208 (permalink)
 Mtype 
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Thank you for creating this journal and sharing your insights. Very interesting journal.

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  #209 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Mtype View Post
Thank you for creating this journal and sharing your insights. Very interesting journal.

Appreciate the support.

This thread is as only as good as the person reading the Chronicles; one should extract the core principles, write them down, to then look through their own charts and apply the knowledge, (in a practical sense). Other concepts that are not clear, should be worked through to gain an understanding. Then the trader may use a combination of the Wyckoffian principles to either integrate them into their existing methods (to apply an additional edge) or to use to the concepts from a pure Wyckoffian standpoint. Unfortunately most readers will not do the necessary work as it requires effort and time, however for those who are diligent and hardworking, hopefully this thread can provide the ''action takers'' the tools to make a successful trader

 
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  #210 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Stopping Volume
Failed Test
Potential short play?
Excellent volume histogram readings
VSA No demand (setup)
Trend Channels
Climatic Behaviour?
Upthrust
Advanced concepts (trading ranges)

PDF attached (3 pages)

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  #211 (permalink)
gizmoisone
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Hope you don't mind me having a go, getting stuck in helps! unfortunately this is post analysis and not a live trade

At 16:45 today on the 5M we have "A" that looks like a no demand small spread up bar (not unlike your entry "J" in last chronicles), then we get a great move down for 7 points
Then sides ways until 19:15 (more my trading time) with another leg down, but this to me is not so obvious
From 18:15 we have reduced supply and demand, then "B" doesn't really jump out like "A"
Although "C" is a increase in volume and a good close, followed by increasing volume "D" "E" and no demand "F"?



 
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  #212 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
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Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Hidden upthrust (setup)
Structure
overbought Conditions
Reverse use of Trendline
Holding gains
Comparative and Relative Analysis
No demand (setup)
Price Action (setup)

A little of day characteristics

PDF attached (3 pages)

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  #213 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Multiple Time Frames (setup)
Shakeout
No demand
Classic Wyckoff (Distribution setup)
Evidence of Supply with bar by bar analysis
Overbought Conditions
Effort vs. Result (positive or negative)
Selling of poor quality

PDF attached (3 pages)

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  #214 (permalink)
umamaheswaruk
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Hi Feibel,

what is an inside bar





Feibel View Post
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Multiple Time Frames (setup)
Shakeout
No demand
Classic Wyckoff (Distribution setup)
Evidence of Supply with bar by bar analysis
Overbought Conditions
Effort vs. Result (positive or negative)
Selling of poor quality

PDF attached (3 pages)


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  #215 (permalink)
 whiteout 
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umamaheswaruk View Post
Hi Feibel,

what is an inside bar

https://futures.io/articles/trading/Inside-Bar

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  #216 (permalink)
 ProLeagueTrading 
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Hi Feibel,

Let me first start with congratulating you on one of the greatest threads I've ever read on trading anywhere! It's really remarkable and inspiring! Thank you so much for continuing to share all your trading insights with us

Early on you had mentioned a 4th page of the Chronicles where you go over your strengths and weakness privately. I'm looking at trying to make the most of my review process and study time, and was curious if you could talk a little to how you evaluate your performance and the structure/format of that page so that I can try and model something similar.

The way you look at the market and lay out your thoughts has helped me see some of the weaknesses in my analysis and I'd like to see if I can be more efficient with my time. Also do you do the first part of the Chronicles premarket and then add the rest later, and on average how long does it take you to put this whole thing together?

Thanks!

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  #217 (permalink)
 Olgrim 
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Feibel. I am addicted to your analytical/educational narratives.
I am always looking forward for the next one. They add new elements to my own trading. I am more focused on diversions on various oscillators (RSI, volume zones, etc.) to price action.
Question:Very often you show tick charts. Sometime you make your conclusions based on them. Do you look at both tick and regular charts at the same time. What screens do you have opened at the same time during your day trading of ES? Do you watch any other indicators? Or you open them from time to time for confirmation and enter trade? Seems like you use tick charts to enter.

Thank you very much.

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  #218 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Olgrim View Post
Feibel. I am addicted to your analytical/educational narratives.
I am always looking forward for the next one. They add new elements to my own trading. I am more focused on diversions on various oscillators (RSI, volume zones, etc.) to price action.
Question:Very often you show tick charts. Sometime you make your conclusions based on them. Do you look at both tick and regular charts at the same time. What screens do you have opened at the same time during your day trading of ES? Do you watch any other indicators? Or you open them from time to time for confirmation and enter trade? Seems like you use tick charts to enter.

Thank you very much.

Thank you for the kind words

Yes, I look at both the 5m and tick charts throughout the day. From a personal perspective, tick charts give a slightly better look to market structure over the 5m (especially on volatile days) If one is new to the method, I would highly recommend to only use one or the other. Or perhaps the 5m chart with the wave volume. Become proficient in one area, then add another chart to increase ones skill level

3 screens are used: 2 x 24" and one 27", Time frames: Daily, 60m, 15m, 5m, and 3500 tick (intraday) different for swing trading.

One of my favourite setups are tests after signs of strength and they are best used via a 5m chart. In my trading both charts are used frequently, they display the data at certain times clearer from one another. Low volatile days via the tick chart are more or less impossible to trade, and high volatile days its best to use a tick chart

No other indicators are used; I learned early on in my trading career that this methodology works and has done for over 100 years, it just requires a regimented practice regime and time. There is nothing wrong with adding other indicators if it helps one to pull the trigger (to instil confidence).

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #219 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Waves
Structure (channels)
Reverse Use of Trend Lines
Spring
Confluence
Trend Trade (setup x 2)
Wyckoffian Thinking (compare and contrast)
No supply (waves)
Wave Volume Nuance

A little on trade management

PDF attached (3 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es151217-1.pdf  
 
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  #220 (permalink)
 whiteout 
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Congrats for the arrival of the newborn baby to you and your wife feibel. Wishing all the best

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  #221 (permalink)
 bebop 
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whiteout View Post
Congrats for the arrival of the newborn baby to you and your wife feibel. Wishing all the best

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I second that - Congratulations!!!

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  #222 (permalink)
umamaheswaruk
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Congrats Feibel to you and your family.

bebop View Post
I second that - Congratulations!!!


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  #223 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

VSA no demand (setup)
2bar reversals (2 x setups)
Structure
Waves
Overbought and Oversold conditions
Change of Behaviour
Climatic?

A little on psychology

PDF attached (3 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es211217-1.pdf  
 
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 ProLeagueTrading 
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Hi Feibel,

Great trades as always! It looks so easy when you break it down in your chronicles.

I was wondering if you ever consider going short where you exited on Bar K? I'll admit I've taken trades like that a fair bit before reading your work. my batting average was not as high as yours but when I was right I could often get a big winner which I felt help make up for the many losers.

I also liked a short four bars after K which looked like a No Demand situation after what to me was a sign of weakness in the near background, ( the rejection at previous days high ) Do you think these are too aggressive, and more evidence is needed to try these shorts? What if one trades off a 1min chart, could it be justified?

Do you think it's a good practice to always demand a COB in wave volume before you would consider shorts?

Thanks again for you great analysis, you've helped me so much already with these chronicles!

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  #225 (permalink)
 ragic 
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hi Feibel

Again, many thanks for the excellent Chronicles.

Ref: Bar E, you say 'There is a huge tell about this bar - it has the lowest volume for any down bar since the open, this is significant'.

I can understand that, but I also think, it only needed a small volume to move down like that, its got a decent spread and finished on its low, ie theres not much buying pressure.

many thanks

 
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  #226 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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ProLeagueTrading View Post
Hi Feibel,

Great trades as always! It looks so easy when you break it down in your chronicles.

I was wondering if you ever consider going short where you exited on Bar K? I'll admit I've taken trades like that a fair bit before reading your work. my batting average was not as high as yours but when I was right I could often get a big winner which I felt help make up for the many losers.

I also liked a short four bars after K which looked like a No Demand situation after what to me was a sign of weakness in the near background, ( the rejection at previous days high ) Do you think these are too aggressive, and more evidence is needed to try these shorts? What if one trades off a 1min chart, could it be justified?

Do you think it's a good practice to always demand a COB in wave volume before you would consider shorts?

Thanks again for you great analysis, you've helped me so much already with these chronicles!

Great question,

The bars around K we would classify as an upthrust, not as an individual bar perse, but with the price action.
Due to being in a long position and the market showing some strength and the lack of selling from the highs being rejected, ideally we would wait for a weak pullback to apply long plays for another leg up.
Although the highs were rejected, there was no evident sign of weakness (a classic upthrust with decent volume would be an instant sell) the sign of weakness emerged later with the ''change of behaviour'' downwave. Supply didn't emerge at the highs, it was the lack of demand and yes this could be traded, it is an aggressive play but valid, depends on ones risk appetite, and of course the couple of bars later illustrate the lack of demand, but contextually for myself, it wasn't clean cut enough.

Excellent observations; with this methodology many expert Wyckoffian traders will trade the same principles/setups with completely different entry and exit points; many factors to include are the individuals chart reading ability, account size, and psychological makeup etc

There are many excellent Wyckoffian traders that use 30 sec charts to enter trades; from a personal viewpoint the smaller timeframes require too much attention and energy, it takes a lot of effort to maintain that degree of concentration for 8 hours (across multiple instruments, is virtually impossible) - the 5m chart is perfect for my style and ''concentration energy''

A change of behaviour are excellent premises for reversal trades, as always, trades are completely contextual, a decent picture perfect upthrust in an uptrend with the right background conditions are grounds for a short play, a sign of weakness in its own right


Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #227 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017


ragic View Post
hi Feibel

Again, many thanks for the excellent Chronicles.

Ref: Bar E, you say 'There is a huge tell about this bar - it has the lowest volume for any down bar since the open, this is significant'.

I can understand that, but I also think, it only needed a small volume to move down like that, its got a decent spread and finished on its low, ie theres not much buying pressure.

many thanks

Good question:

I completely understand your thought process. It helps to remember that the market has had a change of behaviour in wave structure (for 5m timeframe) up waves are now larger than the down waves, and if we dissect the wave into individuals bar, we get excellent confirmation via C (breaks resistance with a firm close and good volume)
Buyers have now proved themselves and in control, its the sellers that now need to prove themselves, and unfortunately for the bears Bar E does not scream overt weakness. The buyers temporarily withdrew to see how much supply was left in the market, and it was fairly weak, this action makes sense as we became overbought in our channel.
There would be many scalpers aware of these conditions especially after bar D printed as supply has entered, thus a pullback is on the cards, and bearish scalpers will take 2 or 3 ticks.
As Wyckoffian traders we need to assess the strength or weakness associated with the pullback and incorporate into our story of strength or weakness to build the bigger picture for a potential setup. We are continually assessing the imbalance of demand and supply - this is the true essence of Wyckoff in its purest form

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #228 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Waves
Trend Channels (overbought and oversold)
Effort vs Result
Testing (setup)
Price action abberation
Trend (setup, weak pullback)
Price Action (setup)
No Supply
Climatic Bars?

and a little on trade management

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es030118-1.pdf  
 
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  #229 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Apex (setup)
No supply (setup)
No demand
Trending Conditions
Trend Channels
Climatic Behaviour
Bar by Bar Analysis
Multiple Time Frame Alignment
Wyckoff Logic

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es050118-1.pdf  
 
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  #230 (permalink)
 ProLeagueTrading 
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Chart Image


Hi Feibel,

Loving your chronicles!

If you have a chance can you look at my entries from Friday? I missed the first one you took I circled in Green. I guess I should have been more biased long sooner, but it only became clearer to me after the change of behavior in the wave volume after the break of the Apex.

It took me two entries to get a decent trade to the long side, I'm wondering how I could have avoided the first losing entry I took. If you were not long already was it something you would have considered and if not why not? I think I generally see more setups then you do and trying to figure out how and when to stand aside to avoid being overly aggressive.

I know you didn't take #3 because you mentioned it lacked enough structure, I'm wondering if what I pointed out on my chart could warrant and entry in your mind?

Thank you!!

ps. I know you don't mention it, but curious if you've found any value from Market Internals like Tick/Advance Decline line, etc. or looking at correlated markets like YM/NQ to help get a better read on things?

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  #231 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

First of all congratulations; you are able to read the markets using the Wyckoffian/VSA approach and your skills are developing nicely.

In reference to being aggressive, this is merely down to the individual and of course is discretionary, a couple of attempts to initiate a position from a personal viewpoint is fine. Many years ago I would jump in and out of the market 15 plus times a day, hence over trading was a obstacle that I had to overcome and I'm sure this has affected many other traders at some point during their development.

Entry 2: I can clearly see your thought process, a weak pullback after a COB wave, and there lies the problem - is it a change of behaviour? It breaks the apex, yes, and we get a decent move up, however it doesn't break the overnight high, price is still contained, it doesn't accomplish anything of real value. If the market breaks the overnight high from the same drive up and the same pullback occurred, a trade would be instantly executed. The bar near resistance that has a spike in volume is of concern, as we have no upside follow through.
One shouldn't get burned by this trade as a stop would be placed in one of 2 possible locations 1 - directly under the low by a tick, maximum of a point loss, which is fine, or under 1 (2728.00) this for my personal appetite is too much, 6.00 points is 2 to 3 times my average stop loss. Many traders would even place the stop under the low of the day or many professional traders would use mental stops' when dealing with large orders (100's of contracts) we do not want them visible on the ladder/exchange for obvious reasons (stop hunting)

Entry 3: The major concern for me was the no demand rally at resistance, followed by increasing higher volume as we react, this is not healthy. The fact we test resistance after a drive up with 5 times less volume than the previous attempt doesn't instil confidence, and with the lack of structure, I simply let the trade pass - there is always another trade.

It appears you have taken the entry via 3 which is excellent, remember the secret is to become the best version of yourself within the markets, not a cardboard cutout. We are all made and wired differently, if you find internals like TICK, TRIN etc valid and useful, then by all means use them if they help. From a personal perspective I learned early on in my career, that I do not need any other indicators or ''chart jewellery'' it will take a lifetime to near perfect the Wyckoff/VSA approach, I admire the simplicity (if there were such a thing) and beauty of the method, still to this day I consider myself a student of the markets as I continue to learn on day to day basis


Excellent questions, keep up the good work,

F

 
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 ProLeagueTrading 
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Feibel,

You're amazing, thanks so much for taking the time to write that detailed response, I don't know if you even realize just how much help you've been making in my trading and I'm sure without a doubt to so many other's who read your thread!

I've spent thousands of dollars on education, software and crazy "jewelry" as you put it but still struggled. But simply by reading your chronicles and thought process here for free it has been such a huge shift in my development and understanding of the markets. I can feel I'm really turning the corner now for good!

Best regards

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trader14
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HI Feibel,

Iíve followed your thread from day one. You do some nice work my friend!

I think youíd agree it takes a lot of work to get to this level of understanding. For those who follow your excellent work I wish them much success on there journey. Itís well worth the effort!!

Iíd like to off a bar by bar annotate of how Wyckoff looks at a Fridayís Trading Range.
Below is a 5 min. chart (without volume) as we read price action from left to right.
I must apologize up front, itís kinda long. But covers price action in detail.

1. A reaction bar out of a range Ė high end close also tells us itís a buying bar as well.
2. The re-test of yesterdays high is offering some resistance as we form a springboard.
Price action also gave us a 2 bar spring Ė anticipate higher prices. A proper long entry after the spring bars close - our risk is about $75.00
3. JOC (jump over creek) from absorption, (a springboard is demand absorbing selling).
4. A terminal spring (a shake out bar) Ė the CM took out the stops located under the lows of this range.
Please note the close of this bar! Itís a red flag as it closed off the bars high Ė selling is present and not a reason to take a short position. Itís just a red flag!
I believe the CM does this on purpose. Most see this bar as a bullish type bar and will buy the 4a bar thinking itís a breakout bar high end close so itís a bullish market.
They are unable to identify the red flag and are trapped as the marker reverses. This in NOT a Sign of Strength (SOS) A true SOS would ber price action at #12 below.
5. After putting a new high we get a reaction bar indicating more selling Ė itís here we can define the trading range, Iíve used the #3 JOC as ICE
WHY? itís where markup started. The close of this bar is a proper short entry, w/ selling in the background, risk approx. 125 bucks
6. More selling bars - a nice reaction after the #4 red flag Ė note ... both bars close off the lows, this isnít supply entering the market. A lower close would indicate supply entering the market. BIG difference!!
The first down bar was key - a warning, the second bar confirmed the first bar warning. WHY? Please see #7.
7. Were back to the #1 bar that started the overnight up move. The bar is unable to close below my horz. line. You have to ask, Is this a spring?
If your still holding a short position - at a minimum cover the short position and lock in profits!! You have a red flag in the background!!
This price action could be labeled as a LPS (last point of supply)
8. Bar 8 is a confirmation of the LPS, notice the bar made a higher high and closed above the last dawn bar (#7) Ė we now know demand is in control of the market!!
Iím not aggressive, and will wait for a reason to enter a proper long position w/ reasonable risk. This is ending action for a move in the opposite direction.
9. After the LPS we are in an AR (automatic reaction) anticipate a secondary test (ST)
10. The market gave is a nice hing as it retests the LPS.
You can also label this as a two bar spring of the #3 bar
11. The close of this bar is a proper entry... were back to a support area. Itís also the 5th bar of the st (markets typically correct 1~3 / 3~5 bars)
12. A nice reaction with high end closes as price moves back to creek. For this time frame - we have a 4 bar Sign of Strength.
13. Selling once again tries to take control. Demand was unable to move price out of the trading range. The battle is here! Supply must overcome demand, who has nothing to prove, they are in control of the market. We know this from
reading the background. We can identify buying bars, selling bars that were overturned with buying, a spring,, re-test of the spring, a sign of strength. Simply stated this is a market with NO supply.
We are now moving into the right hand side of the TR Ė anticipate a directional move from this area as we watch price action unfold.
14. Another hinge.
15. A lack of demand. A different reaction from the last hing huh. Demand was unable to take the market higher. So we can anticipate a move lower to find demand or a selling type bar.
16. From the lack of demand position, supply has to take control. This barís close is mid range - a lack of supply type bar, it was unable to extend the down move as buying pressure came in and halted the reversal
17. Icing on the cake!! A two bar spring. Once again in a weak position buying is present. An excellent example of a add on market position if long from #11 or entry if you looking to enter the market.
The market just formed another springboard position. A JOC is near!!
18. We are in the right hand side of the TR the last absorption before the JOC and markup.

The JOC (jump over creek)
Markup phase.
19. The weak close on a reaction bar, is a good reason to cover your position.

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  #234 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

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 Feibel 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

These are fair comments and I too would be sceptical, however........

Right from the get go I have never said this was a journal my exact words from the very first edition ''After reading many a forum about the trials and tribulations of a day trader (usually ending in disaster.) I wanted a thread that gives an insight into one mans process and showcase that it is indeed possible to make money from the markets. This is my approach to the markets, it may or may not help others; after all one mans junk is another mans treasure''

The trading within the Chronicles is how I trade, it may take a couple of attempts on occasion to enter, this is perfectly normal and not reflected in the Chronicles. As previously stated the Chronicles were originally made for my own benefit, there is a third sheet for personal use that is used for development purposes.
In reference to the entries/exits I thank you for the complement, using this methodology and by being able to read the market bar by bar as it unfolds is a skill that most trades do not possess and has to be the biggest advantage of this method ''being precise to the nth degree''

There have been many traders around the world that have sent private emails thanking me for the time and effort I put into constructing the Chronicles, and it appears it has helped many traders to unveil the smoke and mirrors that surround the markets. It's up to YOU the reader to determine whether there is anything of value within the Chronicles.

All the best,

F

 
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  #236 (permalink)
Ozquant
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trendisyourfriend View Post
No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

Hell NO

 
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  #237 (permalink)
 vimla1918 
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Hi Feibel,

I am following your Chronicals as a learning process of Wyckoff and VSA method , and how it can be applied to your Day trading.
this process seemes to be very logical and feasible to me , and fond to be helpful in my own day trading of ES.

I don't care if these are your Real trade or not

Please continue good work

Thank again

Vimla

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  #238 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Thank you very much for the kind words;

Trader14 has highlighted a principle that hasn't occurred in the Chronicles as yet. Fridays action (kindly illustrated) is what Wyckoff would call re-accumulation, this more or less has the same structure and principles we would associate with ''normal accumulation'' except for one major element - a selling climax. True 'accumulation' price will be trending down for some time and towards the end of the downtrend volume would expand, spreads will increase and the market prints a selling climax (ultra high volume and wide spread) often closing in the middle/near the highs of the bar. Re-accumulation we are already in an uptrend and the market simply re-accumulates; builds cause for another move up, whilst eradicating weak positions, so the only real difference between the two is the how the accumulation starts. However normal accumulation is a more powerful source of cause and this equates to much better trading opportunities, especially if using higher time frames (4 hrs upward) if swing trading we can hold for a much longer period

Just a couple of observations; technically 17 is not a spring, there is no platform for the spring i.e. a support level, these 2 bars are testing supply to the left. 10 is also very dubious, again I wouldn't classify this as a spring.
Springs are the one of the most bullish powerful setups within the Wyckoffian playbook (technically the concept originated via Bob Evans) you need to see clean support levels that have a decent amount of white space between the touches (distance) and a decent push up that creates the white space (picture an upside down U) with price action adhering to the outside. Of course its never quite so textbook and perfect, but more often than not it will resemble something along those lines

Excellent observations well done! I must say it's refreshing to see fellow Wyckoffians

Hope this helps, all the best

F

 
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  #239 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Just started checking out Wyckoff and discovered this thread. Looking forward to working through it; thanks @Feibel.

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  #240 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:

Shakeouts?
Waves
Structure
Overbought
No supply (wave setup)
Shortening of the Thrust
Change of behaviour?

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es090118-1.pdf  
 
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  #241 (permalink)
 roadahead 
Dubai UAE
 
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@Feibel,

Just opened this thread to myself, really great to see somebody practicing Wyckoff and VSA so professionally I would say..
One fast question here: doesn't low supply can mean low demand as well?? I've just finished Tom Williams "The undeclared secrets..." - and it's said the same: "low supply". Can you explain please?

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  #242 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
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roadahead View Post
@Feibel,

Just opened this thread to myself, really great to see somebody practicing Wyckoff and VSA so professionally I would say..
One fast question here: doesn't low supply can mean low demand as well?? I've just finished Tom Williams "The undeclared secrets..." - and it's said the same: "low supply". Can you explain please?

Sent using the https://futures.io%20mobile%20app

Appreciate the kind words;

An excellent question. The answer is relatively simple ''Background Conditions'', if we come from strength i.e a decent wave up, a true sign of strength bar, a spring etc we can say that demand is in control. If the market proceeds north and finds resistance and we hold (react weakly) spreads start to narrow, volume declines, we would classify as a lack of supply. Selling should emerge at resistance ''through dis-confirming supply, we get the confirmation of demand''.

If the market shakes out weak longs or has finished accumulation price can appear to levitate up with very low volume, this doesn't mean the lack of demand. If supply has been eradicated, there will be no upside friction, no selling contracts to absorb by the buyers, this enables the buyers to drive the market higher with very little volume.

In a nutshell its all about the back ground conditions, we need to see clear evidence that either demand overcomes supply (or vice versa) and when the opposing force has an opportunity to react or rally - we analyse the quality/strength of the buying/selling behaviour. If you work your way through the Chronicles you will find various in-depth trades in the correct context that should solidify your knowledge on this topic

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #243 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Multiple Time Frames
Waves
Effort vs. Result
No supply (setup; waves)
Reverse use of trend line
Strcuture
Testing
Relative and Comparative Analysis (Often neglected Wyckoffian attribute)

PDF attached (3 pages)

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 Rrrracer 
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Feibel
If the market shakes out weak longs or has finished accumulation price can appear to levitate up with very low volume, this doesn't mean the lack of demand. If supply has been eradicated, there will be no upside friction, no selling contracts to absorb by the buyers, this enables the buyers to drive the market higher with very little volume

@Feibel, thank you for the explanation. Would this be an example?


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  #245 (permalink)
 gorge 
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@Feibel
Hi Sir ,
I am novice and still trying to learn/master Wyckoff , your writings are of great help. Its absolutely amazing what your doing here. However sometimes I have difficulty understanding everything. Do you take training/webinars or some kind of mentoring. I had love to if you do. If not can you please suggest me a place where I can learn the principles first and then it will be easy to understand your writings more clearly.

Again I would like to thank you alot.

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  #246 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
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Thank you for the kind comments:

Appears to be a whacky market (probably a currency)
To be honest I cannot read the volume on your chart or the price action that clearly, however the shakeout bar is clear (more than likely news driven) and the price action prior resistance is kind of grinding up. Yet as we begin to drive through drive through those 2 resistance areas, price action becomes a little messy and awful to read. Price does push higher, but is far from a low volatile grind up due to the lack of supply, there is much price bar overlap, big spreads, smalls spreads, closing low, closing high etc.

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #247 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Change of Behaviour (setup)
Continuation/trend trades (setups x2)
Waves
Structure
Overbought and oversold conditions
Reverse use of Trend Lines
Shortening of the Thrust
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Hypodermics?
No demand (waves)

PDF attached (4 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
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  #248 (permalink)
 butch1130 
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Hello.
First a huge thanks for the time you take to share these.

A question from the Chronicles from 16/01/2018.



This leads to bar D Ė Entry 1, why? We have a plethora of reasons; price is unable to reach the
supply line from our channel with price holding a reverse use (double bearish) we break the demand
line from our channel and local support to C (double bearish). The wave down (59k orange HL) is a
ííchange of behaviouríí draws out the largest downside volume and wave down (double bearish).
NOW we wait for weak rally to short, which prints at D (an upthrust) a sign of weakness in itself.


I see the wave down and I recognize that it has the most down volume since the up move began. I know we should also be looking for a weak rally to try and short. What I don't see is how D is an upthrust? What are we upthrusting? I see the line you have drawn from the reaction low, but unclear how that would be so significant.

Thanks for your time.

Second quick question. What settings would you recommend using for the CL to recreate a chart similar to your 3500 tick with .75 WW in the ES?


Dave

 
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  #249 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Appreciate the support, thank you:

An excellent question: it's a nuance of structure that I like to use. When the market turns as it does to C, I am looking for a local level of resistance to trade against. Due to the lack of demand at the highs (12k and 12k) after the move to C, its highly unlikely that price will test the highs again, as we know there is no demand (not enough force)

For whatever reason the market has respected the local level of support 3 times, then as we reverse to break, note the price action - spread has increased closing weak on its lows. This gives the level validity (as we know it takes force to break support or resistance) When price rallies back to resistance the spreads have narrowed considerably, more or less into the 50% range of the down bar and prints a lovely little upthrust of the local resistance. For all intents and purposes we could name the bar a ''key Reversal'. As previously stated the labelling is unimportant.
The use of tick charts provide subtleties of structure and clarity that the 5m does not possess, especially in volatile conditions. This is the main reason I prefer tick chart structure to the 5m

CL settings $0.05c (5 cents) and between 750 to 900 ticks. When the AVT is higher than normal switch to 900 ticks.

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #250 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VA principles at play in today's action:

Spring (setup)
Upthrust (setup)
Accumulation/buying zone
Bar by Bar Analysis
Shakeouts
No supply (setup)
Overbought and oversold conditions
Volume aberrations
Structure - triple Confluence

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es180118-1.pdf  
 
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  #251 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play:

Classic Wyckoff Accumulation (daily)
Bag Holding
Shakeout
Effort vs. Result
Apex

A potential swing trading opportunity.

FX/currency futures will be tweeted in the near future (daily) and will be in the format we see via the chart. A knowledge of Wyckoff/VSA is essential.

(PDF attached 2 pages)

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  #252 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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@Feibel, thanks. Will your currency analyses only be available on Twitter or will you be posting them elsewhere as well?

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  #253 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017


Rrrracer View Post
@Feibel, thanks. Will your currency analyses only be available on Twitter or will you be posting them elsewhere as well?

Due to the nature of the charts being analysed; Stocks, currency futures, commodities, ETF's and so on, I do not want individual threads or to interfere with the continuity of the S&P Chronicles. Perhaps in the future, but for the time being Twitter will be used.

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #254 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Waves
Shakeout
VSA tests (setup x 2)
Climatic Behaviour
Parabolic
Comparative and Relative Analysis
No demand (rally)

When not to trade and ''Analysis Paralysis''

PDF attached (2 pages)

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  #255 (permalink)
 ragic 
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Feibel has recently talked about comparing similar bars so I spent a little time looking. Similar bars are quite abundant when you look...

You can see the 3 pairs of bars (or types) in the screenprint. One thing that struck me was you have to compare like with like, no use comparing a bar that closes at its low with a bar that closes mid bar... theres buying in it.
If looking for Supply, the blue bars close near the lows but have reducing volume, so downward pressure may be reducing.

The yellow bars are interesting, the 2nd bar has much reduced volume, but the price moves up nicely... lack of supply or frictionless as F says...

Please find a chart from today (23/jan), showing 3 similar bars in the pullback to yesterdays high.

Feibel... please advise/correct...

E

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  #256 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

A follow up regarding the GBP daily analysis: post #251

Buying Zone (setup)
Selling Zone (setup)
Multiple Time Frame Alignment

PDF attached (1 page)

Attached Thumbnails
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  #257 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Good questions:

Comparative and relative analysis must be used contextually correct i.e at a structural location, or the same kind of move (attempts to go lower using wave format)

Example: We do not analyse all down bars on the chart, as Ragic pointed out the bars would be abundant and the analysis would hold no meaning. It must be used in context: A down bar after price has rejected higher prices is different to a down bar at support that is trying to break. The very nature of the bar and what its trying to accomplish is completely different.

This is where the analysis will open up the charts and provide an edge. Using the example above; support would be the location where we would analyze all the down bars (using the relative and comparative approach) if volume declines, we dis-confirm the presence of supply.

In reference to the 5m chart and the coloured bars, first thing I would note is the wave structure, we cannot push this market lower, why? Using the comparative approach (last time at resistance (C) we reacted straight down, this time we test twice within 25m (D & E) on lower volume (we didn't react straight down) the buyers came in for another attempt fairly quickly (strength)

Now we pay attention to the wave structure; the average volume is is much lower than the previous down wave to A. If we dissect the wave into bars, the highest volume bar within this wave is bullish, Effort vs. Result (Bar 1), sticks out like a sore thumb. The blue supply bars you have marked, have little volume, but good ease of movement, however bar 1 negates negativity as demand overcomes supply (this action is strong, its attempting to hold a higher low (that's what this bar would accomplish) No follow through from bar 2, an instant buy via 3. Not only do we have a story of strength, the higher timeframe is strong (which is of the up most importance)

Bar 4 is an advanced trade setup (absorption) a personal favourite due to the lack of risk (absorption has been discussed in length previously) A few traders will mention the lack of demand volume as we push to resistance (the approach to 4), its important to remember we have dis-confirmed supply at 1, holding a higher level of support, a story of strength on both time frames, formed an apex along with classic absorption characteristics at resistance

The trade that you entered was excellent, however I do not see a reason to exit.

Hope this helps,

F

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  #258 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

A follow up to the GBP (6B) series;

Wyckoff and VSA principles:

Apex
Shortening of the Thrust
Multiple Time Frame Analysis (setup)
Comparative Analysis
Subtleties of strength
Testing
Structure
Signs Of Strength
Waves

PDF attached (2 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-6b-560mtf-240117-1.pdf  
 
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  #259 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

No demand (setup)
Stopping Volume/selling climax
Waves
Structural Confluence
Comparative and Relative Analysis
No demand rally
Background Conditions
Change of behaviour
New Momentum Low (setup)

PDF attached (3 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es250118-1.pdf  
 
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  #260 (permalink)
 ProLeagueTrading 
Victoria British Columbia
 
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Hi Feibel,

On the 5min chart the entry at C, was it an "up bar" since it never closed higher than last bar, and is that necessary for it to be a No Demand bar? I thought No demands could only be on up bars. Also if I was late to recognizing it, how do you feel about entering with a limit order just under low of C bar with stop above and hope to get filled on retest if it happens?

I did not short at C or have a sell stop below it, but after the strong bar that followed I was more convinced to get short, I know this gives up some trade location advantage, but I thought would still make for a decent play, especially given the confirmed response to C, thoughts on that?

Thanks again for these reports!

have a great weekend!

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  #261 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
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ProLeagueTrading View Post
Hi Feibel,

On the 5min chart the entry at C, was it an "up bar" since it never closed higher than last bar, and is that necessary for it to be a No Demand bar? I thought No demands could only be on up bars. Also if I was late to recognizing it, how do you feel about entering with a limit order just under low of C bar with stop above and hope to get filled on retest if it happens?

I did not short at C or have a sell stop below it, but after the strong bar that followed I was more convinced to get short, I know this gives up some trade location advantage, but I thought would still make for a decent play, especially given the confirmed response to C, thoughts on that?

Thanks again for these reports!

have a great weekend!

Excellent question and good observations, I can tell you are familiar with the methodology;

Technically Bar C is a down bar, however it is regarded as no demand as it attempted to break the highs (which we can see from the spread). I was careful not to use the term ''no demand bar'' as this is VSA (an up bar with lower volume than the previous 2 bars).

It pays to step back and take a macro view of the market, soften the lens a little; what do we see? Very high volume supply bar to the left (Z) an attempt to break at B, another revisit via C, which has the lowest volume on the chart (US session) demand volume is declining. It's an instant short via the close, odds highly favour that the amount of buying force via C is unable to break the through the supply via Z (both highlighted purple)

Bar C is not a test bar, because we have no sign of strength bar behind us, these generally occur at support (within reason) bottom reversals, spring bars etc.

Entries are discretionary; short the close, the low, 2 bar previous low or alternatively wait for confirmation, although we always pay for confirmation....either in price or we miss the trade entirely. The trade you placed was excellent; we all have varying degrees of experience, account size, chart reading ability etc. Well done

Bear in mind that the market after a no demand setup like this via a daily time frame, would need to be triggered earlier rather than later due to stop placement (risk in points is very large)

All the best,

F

 
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  #262 (permalink)
 Olgrim 
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hi
2d and 3d bars before big G drop on 5 min ES are "no supply," bars. I took a long position at the 2D bar before G. It was a simulation. (Thank God) How can you hold 2/3 of your position in this situation? "Low volume" situation - you know this after or at the bar G. How did you know it will not retest C level?

Thank you for all these lessons.

 
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  #263 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017


Olgrim View Post
hi
2d and 3d bars before big G drop on 5 min ES are "no supply," bars. I took a long position at the 2D bar before G. It was a simulation. (Thank God) How can you hold 2/3 of your position in this situation? "Low volume" situation - you know this after or at the bar G. How did you know it will not retest C level?

Thank you for all these lessons.

You are welcome, appreciate the kind words;

This raises a VERY important topic that many new traders to this methodology appear to have in common.

They tend to ignore THE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS (all the action to the left) and focus on one bar to the right handside of the chart.

We always tell a Wyckoffian story of strength or weakness for our setups; the story here is weakness (as illustrated). The bars you have mentioned, do have low volume, however this isn't ''no supply'' there is no sign of strength behind us. Sellers are in control and do not need to prove themselves. The original breakdown bar at Z is supply, revisits via B (mini climax), again with even lower volume at C, which is no demand. As we react via E, volume increases (confirms the presence of supply)
Its the buyers that need to prove themselves. As we try to rally from the lows via the E wave, its weak; volume depletes, narrow spreads etc. Stop was moved after E to 1 tick below my entry to cover commissions (as mentioned)

Holding this trade was relatively comfortable as partial profits were locked in via D and the stop was moved to cover costs after E. Plus reading the market as it unfolded, did not show ANY STRENGTH. Even the mini pop in volume that closes back under resistance via F, was additional confirmation of weakness. You could short here; but not long. Use the comparative and relative analysis of the waves and price bars within

Taking a long position, in the middle of the trading range is contextually incorrect. Try to use structure to lean against - reduces risk

Good question; make sure you use structure, understand the backgrounds conditions and use context

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #264 (permalink)
 Olgrim 
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Feibel View Post
You are welcome, appreciate the kind words;

This raises a VERY important topic that many new traders to this methodology appear to have in common.

They tend to ignore THE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS (all the action to the left) and focus on one bar to the right handside of the chart.

We always tell a Wyckoffian story of strength or weakness for our setups; the story here is weakness (as illustrated). The bars you have mentioned, do have low volume, however this isn't ''no supply'' there is no sign of strength behind us. Sellers are in control and do not need to prove themselves. The original breakdown bar at Z is supply, revisits via B (mini climax), again with even lower volume at C, which is no demand. As we react via E, volume increases (confirms the presence of supply)
Its the buyers that need to prove themselves. As we try to rally from the lows via the E wave, its weak; volume depletes, narrow spreads etc. Stop was moved after E to 1 tick below my entry to cover commissions (as mentioned)

Holding this trade was relatively comfortable as partial profits were locked in via D and the stop was moved to cover costs after E. Plus reading the market as it unfolded, did not show ANY STRENGTH. Even the mini pop in volume that closes back under resistance via F, was additional confirmation of weakness. You could short here; but not long. Use the comparative and relative analysis of the waves and price bars within

Taking a long position, in the middle of the trading range is contextually incorrect. Try to use structure to lean against - reduces risk

Good question; make sure you use structure, understand the backgrounds conditions and use context

Hope this helps,

F


This is probably the best explanation that teacher would give to a student like myself. Thank you. "Background" is still something subjective to me, something I can't quantify therefore I can't totally rely on.

Like today (30/Jan.) do you look at the big overnight drop as a background? I think yes even though the overnight volume is miniscule. Also mid-day volume in futures is normally down. But you always consider this mid-day volume as a comparable and functionally equal volume to open hours volume and last hours volume (highest). I mean that there are cyclical factors that effecting volume. Don't you think? Yes I remember - everything should be looked in context and within structure. Seems to have a better vision of this structure and context we need some indicators like volume factored indicators, say, Chaikin money flow and stochastic which adds feeling of momentum and waves. Recently I use also "relative volume". They just help to read the market and to create " analysis- paralysis." Your lessons teach to see more to the story.

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  #265 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Waves
Axis Line
No demand (setup x 3)
Upthrust (setup x 2)
Multiple Time Frames
Structure
Comparative and Relative Analysis

PDF attached (3 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es300118-1.pdf  
 
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  #266 (permalink)
 davidfa 
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Feibel View Post
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:
PDF attached (3 pages)

Hi @Feibel,
cannot just hit the thanks button.
It's a long time, many years in the business and, have to recognise, I've been not that aware of the forum. So just found your corner 5 days ago. Went through the majority of your pdf chronicles. And now looking forward for the daily new one.
Amazing. Professional work.
I've been subscribed to the Weis's "stock market updates" daily reports, wich I find very interesting. Kind of little gems of ideas on each.
But your chronicles embrace much more detail and explanation which I enjoy going through and help me understand and improve my chart reading capabilities.

Just out of curiosity: how much time do you devote daily to trading? and how much only for the chronicle pdf?
Would you recommend which books or videos to deep into this market reading technique?

Thanks a lot for sharing your work and your enthusiasm keeping up this thread.
Wish you the best.
David

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  #267 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Thank you for the kind words;

Active trading is anything between 7 and 12 hours a day (dependent on swing trading portfolio) The S&P Chronicles does include much prep for myself along with other forms of self development, all in all anything between 150m to 240m per edition. Hence the uploads have been reduced of late due to the arrival of our new little addition to the family

The go to books are Studies in Tape Reading by Rollo Tape, a pseudo name for Wyckoff (I would always start with original source). A deemed to be modern classic, Trades About to Happen by David Weis and for VSA The Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market by the late Tom Williams. All excellent books.

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #268 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Apex (setup)
No supply
New momentum low (setup)
Spring (setup)
Multiple time frames
Bar by Bar Analysis
No demand (setup)
Reverse use of Trendline
Structure
Waves
Absorption
Effort vs. Result

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es010218-1.pdf  
 
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  #269 (permalink)
 totoscalper 
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:
Feibel View Post
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Apex (setup)
No supply
New momentum low (setup)
Spring (setup)
Multiple time frames
Bar by Bar Analysis
No demand (setup)
Reverse use of Trendline
Structure
Waves
Absorption
Effort vs. Result

PDF attached (3 pages)

It's a pleasure to read.
Thank you for your time.

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  #270 (permalink)
 ragic 
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About half way through Friday there was an impressive rally (on both tick and 5 min), with a good wave volume, I was thinking we may have a COB. The previous downtrend was weak and messy, so why not..
I was proven wrong, so my question is... when is it a COB... Thinking as I write, I suppose its when the reaction doesn't go much further than 50% of the rally. But it was a good looking rally.
I didn't consider a Long, as the higher time frames were heavy downwards, so I'd want more proof, but it made me sit back...

As always, thanks for the excellent Chronicles...


PS: On the 5 min chart... to the left of the rally, as it breaks down thro the green line... is that a form if distribution ... similar to the type of accumulation you (Feibel) explained a couple of weeks ago. drag the buyers in but each bar closes near its Low

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  #271 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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I would consider taking out the previous lower high to be COB. Looking forward to @Feibel's response.

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  #272 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Good question;

It is not a change of behaviour, why? Within this downtrend we have a larger upwave via A, and it draws out higher volume in total than B. Yes we do get better ease of movement to the upside, but the wave is smaller, in length, duration and volume, this is negative behaviour.

I wasn't active this day, however the spring at support where we are unable to test the demand line is a valid trade. The target for this spring would be the supply confluence via the trend channel (purple line ) and resistance (overnight low)

As price starts to roll over via C we can short to the downside with a play to the demand line which is hit nicely (target)
All the structure was in place before hand giving our targets.
Targets and trade limitations (spring) must be known in advance, to help with the pressure of dealing with price in real time at these locations (less decision making, can't be caught off guard)

In reference to the time based chart, the price may appear sloppy, but there are two HUGE supply bars that literally are the length of the attempt to rally. These two bars tell us, that supply is in this market and in a big way, there are no buying bars of this quality. Try not to forget that we are in a confirmed downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows; short plays are highly advised

Hope this helps,

F

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  #273 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Multiple Time Frames
No demand (setups x 3)
New Momentum Low (setup)
Oversold Conditions
Structure
Reverse (flip-side use of trend lines)
Change of Character
Supply Confluence
Comparative Analysis

PDF attached (4 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es050218-1.pdf  
 
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  #274 (permalink)
 lone 
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Hi Feibei,

You used the 3500Tick chart on your last analysis when normally you use the 5m, is it due to current market conditions?

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  #275 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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lone View Post
Hi Feibei,

You used the 3500Tick chart on your last analysis when normally you use the 5m, is it due to current market conditions?

Excellent question:

Yes, using the 5m for intraday for the day in question required stops that were uncomfortable due to the volatility, spreads were 6, 8, 10+ points per 5m bar. When these conditions occur, one can reduce contract size or perhaps trade a 100 shares via SPY (ETF) to reduce exposure.

As tick charts are activity based and not time, its possible at points during the day, that the tick chart using 3500 transactions per bar may have been the equivalent of a 1m bar or less, this led to using a 5250 chart and a 7000 tick chart, this helps to silence the noise a little; a mere personal preference

Hope this helps,

F

 
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  #276 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Classic Wyckoff ''Rally back to Ice'' (setup x 2)
No demand (setup)
Upthrust (setup)
Waves
Structure
Overbought/Oversold conditions
Effort vs. Result
Change in Behaviour

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es080218-1.pdf  
 
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  #277 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's market:

Accumulation
Oversold Conditions
No supply (setup)
No demand
Spring (setup)
Mini Apex
Effort vs. Result
Waves
Trend Channels

and a little on price action logic

PDF attached (3 pages)

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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es190218-1.pdf  
 
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  #278 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

No demand?
Structure
Overbought and oversold conditions
Demand and Supply
Bar by Bar Analysis
Comparative and Relative Analysis
2 bar reversal (setup)
No supply (setup)
Effort vs. Result

PDF attached (2 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es260218-1.pdf  
 
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  #279 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Hey Feibel! A while back you mentioned...


Feibel View Post
If one studies the Asian, European and US sessions, there are distinct correlations that can help prepare for the day ahead.

When you get a chance, would you mind expounding on this subject a bit? I follow all three sessions and would be interested to hear your thoughts.

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  #280 (permalink)
 Feibel 
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Rrrracer View Post
Hey Feibel! A while back you mentioned...



When you get a chance, would you mind expounding on this subject a bit? I follow all three sessions and would be interested to hear your thoughts.

Apart from the quantitative approach that used to be a part of my analysis many moons ago which incorporated the fallacy that if the Asian was down, followed by the European session more often than not the US session would rally and this worked (to some extent) there are patterns that would last for a couple of weeks or a month or so, this was stacking the odds in our favour by playing probabilities
However, as skills improved and the ability to read the market as it unfolds developed I would apply (and still do) the infamous ‘’change in behaviour’’ by comparing and contrasting the Asian and Euro sessions. E.G - If in an uptrend for 5 days via a 60m chart and every Asian session holds gains (trades sideways) and on the 6th day there is selling of significance during the Asian session (over 3x of the AVT via the prior Asian sessions) This would be an indication that selling has emerged and perhaps the trend is in risk of failing. A good tell early on via the US session is to see price fail to hold above the Euro/Asian session highs, structure should hold and this is the key. Due to the activity (volume) in the US hours by all intents and purposes we should always break structural areas made by the lower volume pre-market hours, however when they hold along with changes in behaviour, we gain a big edge and get to jump in early as the market is tipping its hand.

Alternatively we look for high volume bars during the overnight sessions, this is usually large scale professional buying, we need to make sure it’s not climatic by gauging the price action thereafter and if not, we trade with the high volume direction. There are many examples of pre-market analysis in the Chronicles coming into play and setting us up for the US session, apologies as I cannot point you to the exact edition.

Great question, hope this helps,

F

 
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  #281 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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No worries, I'm still working my way through the Chronicles and am sure I will stumble upon them (not afraid to do the homework LOL.) Gonna go back through the charts to look for this behaviour as well.

Thank you for making the effort to openly share your ideas with the community, it is much appreciated!

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  #282 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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That's a great point you bring up. Yesterday was the first day US failed to hold the rally above the overnight high in ES. The bottom of the overnight easily gave way. Today, same pattern, early US rally failed to gold a lower overnight high. That should've been a huge tip off to me if the ensuing downtrend. Real selling had emerged.

Thanks for the tips!

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  #283 (permalink)
 ragic 
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Following recent posts, I spent a couple of hours this morning looking at a few overnight sessions for any hints for the following day..
Please find a couple of prints, including yesterday (1st March). Of course major structural levels are important but the prints just look at the 5 minute timescale.

And its all done in Hindsight.....

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  #284 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:

Wyckoff Classic - BUEC (setup)
Effort vs. Result (setup)
Trend Trading (setup)
Structure
No supply
Reverse use of Trend line
Spring (setup)
Trend Channels
Axis Line

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
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  #285 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
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I canít believe everyone is falling for this.

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  #286 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
I can’t believe everyone is falling for this.

Falling for what?

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  #287 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Apologies @Feibel, it won't happen again, I only allow myself to derail a thread once.

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  #288 (permalink)
 idolum 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
I can’t believe everyone is falling for this.

The main reason why I enjoy this thread so much is because of Feibel’s ability to articulate his beliefs. Whether you share these beliefs or not there is a lot of value that can be extracted from well thought out contributions vs vague one-liners. Just sayin'...

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  #289 (permalink)
 roadahead 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
I canít believe everyone is falling for this.

..instead of falling for...or not falling for..or..
Could you please shape your thought completely?

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  #290 (permalink)
 Olgrim 
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Hi.
I see this concept as a very good trading technique mostly driven by recognition of diversions between 1. price, 2. price spreads, 3 closing levels and volume.

On Fri. we had clear and strong bullish move. However, selling volume spikes on 9-50 (-5GT) am. in resistance areas was misleading. Was it buying or selling volume? Without seeing a weak reaction only after - it is impossible to tell. Those areas of struggle should NOT be traded on. It is important to be patient and wait until market breaks through resistance (green strong line), where we see who is in control. Background was set-up even before open: 8-30. The focus should probably be on a structure and price action. Volume action is for confirmation of the story. I use money flow oscilator to identify diversions in price/volume.

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  #291 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
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Grantx View Post
Falling for what?

The analysis is great and I agree with most of the principles being written about by @Feibel, however the trades being posted are not real and he is holding himself out as the trades being real... with a convenient contact information link at the bottom of each pdf.

On twitter his bio reads: "10 year Veteran Day Trader. Author of the S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation Of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action". "Author" of a series of perfect hindsight-post trading posts on a message board?

@Feibel (a non elite account)'s only posts have been here in this thread to advertise his email/twitter.

@Big Mike should probably take a look at this.

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  #292 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
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Feibel View Post
and only take 4- 6 points a day, which no doubt if you follow this thread will happen not too far in the distant future.

A "10 year veteran" trader saying this to beginner traders... come on guys.

@Big Mike

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  #293 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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Reading UK
 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
The analysis is great and I agree with most of the principles being written about by @Feibel, however the trades being posted are not real and he is holding himself out as the trades being real... with a convenient contact information link at the bottom of each pdf.

On twitter his bio reads: "10 year Veteran Day Trader. Author of the S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation Of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action". "Author" of a series of perfect hindsight-post trading posts on a message board?

@Feibel (a non elite account)'s only posts have been here in this thread to advertise his email/twitter.

@Big Mike should probably take a look at this.

Personally I think that we are all very aware that the trades are likely to be hindsight analysis but to be honest IDGAF whether he is faking it or not. His thorough analysis and clear and concise explanations are what matters. My daily post analysis is formatted very similar to feibels because I have found his pdf's to be inspirational. If I have the discipline to analyse my own trading to his level of detail every day then I can call myself a professional in that regard.

I think its a good thing. Learn from him just dont give him any money

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 Rrrracer 
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Indianoplace, IN
 
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The thread and analyses speak for themselves in my opinion. If you examine his Twitter account, you'll find nothing more than reposts of what he puts here, and they all direct back to FIO. He's not selling anything, and is offering up valuable knowledge to everyone here who cares to go through it and learn.

Dude, I totally respect you acting in the best interests of the community here and would be on board if I didn't feel your efforts were misplaced. The thread has been active for nine months with nary a complaint until now, for what it's worth.

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Shane

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 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
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Feibel View Post
Due to company restrictions I am unable to turn on trade markers, however, going forward I would like to produce a swing based Chronicle using my personal account. It would be a good process to go through stock selection (using pure Wyckoff) with a variety of instruments; commodities, currencies and stocks.

Is anyone paying attention?

@Rrrracer: "The thread has been active for nine months with nary a complaint until now, for what it's worth." I guess it takes 9 months for realistic/critical thinking to visit a thread sometimes?

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 ProLeagueTrading 
Victoria British Columbia
 
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I agree with Rrrracer, you won't see any complaints here! I think it's incredibly generous of Feibel to share all that he has with us, and it's exactly what most people on FIO are looking for.

Personally my trading has improved greatly after trying to apply much of what I learned from his thread and am deeply grateful for his efforts, and hope he finds time to continue! He's not selling anything, and he's answering anyone who has questions with very detailed and thoughtful replies, all that while having a new baby. I don't know what issue anyone could have with the guy. He doesn't owe us anything, in terms of posting trades in real time.

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 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

@trendisyourfriend nailed this months ago.

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 vimla1918 
New york U.S.
 
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you are not saying anything New . All his foiiowers Know the value of his postings

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  #299 (permalink)
 idolum 
Los Angeles
 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
@trendisyourfriend nailed this months ago.

It seems to me that you have just started reading the thread to cherry pick old comments that support your suspicion. You are entitled to your opinion but it's safe to assume that everyone who has enjoyed Feibel's contributions so far has already read these comments months ago.

Fibel himself stated that this is an optimized version of his actual trading journal and I don't see how the two contact links at the bottom of his trading journal should raise an alarm.

In my view his journal is an excellent representation of what a professional trading journal should look like and is a great learning resource for those who are interested in Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action. I am certainly grateful for all of Feibel's posts - not only because they are so well articulated but also because they are simply fun to read. Great stuff!

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 TheTradeSlinger 
Huntington WV
 
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idolum View Post
Fibel himself stated that this is an optimized version of his actual trading journal and I don't see how the two contact links at the bottom of his trading journal should raise an alarm.

Below you will find a chart depicting my trades from today, green is where I bought and red is where I sold. Please keep in mind though that these are "optimized versions" of my trades. Please ignore the super secret indicator below, but feel free to contact me privately for more information.

(Can you guys truly not see this exactly what @Feibel is doing?)

@Big Mike


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