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Consistent Loser Looking for Trading Buddy to Reverse my Trades


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Consistent Loser Looking for Trading Buddy to Reverse my Trades

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  #1 (permalink)
jeremymgp
Busan
 
 
Posts: 7 since Feb 2010
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Hi,

Am a longterm consistent loser and recently have been experimenting with fading my own psychology, I saw a thread where one trader traded a losing system and the other reversed them at around 3x more and it worked well for them.

If I fade my own trades of course I know there is another account reversing them so just think about that and I end up losing again.
However:
- if there is a trader in the background separately reversing trades with no reverse directly on my system
- and if I even trade my own small live account not just a demo.

There is a possibility I could happily continue to trade like a loser and it work out. I trade NQ in the morning session, if anyone has any interest in this let me know.

Am also aware many have likely considered doing this before, and that trade management, the market itself and psychology mean reversing would still not work. Even so, I have been experimenting for some time, and while I cannot reverse myself and have even tried hiring people to reverse myself for me, if someone in the background can simply watch my account, act reasonably quickly and especially avoid communicating with me while trading so after a certain time I don't even know for sure if they are there or not, I believe it may yet be possible to continue trading as a loser and profit from it. Any interest PM or write here thanks,

Jeremy

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  #3 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
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I really think you are misguided in this venture. All the great discretionary traders simply know when they have an average, good, or great trade. Stated another way, their confidence correlates, has a factual basis, in reality (with obviously a random component!). There's no point in trading discretionary if this weren't so. Think about it! If you can't develop it then you should trade systems.

This ability to feel or predict the market is also how some traders can trade seemingly with very low win ratios but still do well. They don't lose that much on the bad trades because they are proportionally sized very small. They position size dynamically and size up their best trades (within limits of course!). And, that's also yet-another-reason why it's difficult to make money with a small account: because even the average trades are overleveraged.

There are a few things you can do that might turn things around for you beyond developing a working system:

1. Take a measure of your temperament every morning.
2. Try to score every trade on a score from 4 to 10 before and after the trade. Are you taking a lot of <5 trades ? Do you come up with the same numbers? Maybe you can find a way to recognize or develop the ability over time. If you can't develop such ability to weight your trades then possibly trying a rules based approach would help. In that case, you just find 2-3 things to score them based on.
3. Another option you can try if the above doesn't work is you to hedge yourself. Basically, you have to force yourself to trade both long and short at the same time. One can think of it as keeping a memory of your trades. Maybe there is some value in your losing trades that you are not capturing, i.e. due to stop runs or poor trade placement.

The magic/profit comes from the "total sequence". This is a hypothetical example of what it might look like:

A. Anticipating a bullish trend day, get long.
B. Market runs against me to the sell side.
C. Anticipating a short term bearish run or simply because risk is too great reverse from long to short or go flat. But watch the market. (Whether you go flat or short is going to be based on your confidence or rules.)
D. As soon as we naturally close out the short/flat, we reverse back to long and reestablish the original position.

Typically one side is scalping and the other is a longer term hold. An alternative to having to close and open positions would be to simply trade 2 correlated instruments. Pick one to trade short throughout the day and the other to trade long.

4. An alternative to the above might be to develop your own gray box methods. This is a topic of high interest to me. But, let's imagine the most simple method where you make your trade bias decision as normal but only enter your trade based on a pullback to some recent measure of support/resistance. You might miss out on more good trades but your trade positioning will be better.

5. Consider also that you may simply have not put in the work to develop the skills required to really trade. You might also have a very unfounded impression of the difficulty of trading. If you haven't put in at least 3 to 6 60 hour weeks exclusively dedicated to your craft, real work, then you really haven't even did the groundwork. Example, if you use technical analysis then that would be 60 hour weeks of really studying various technical methods. You don't have to use quantitative analysis but it makes the work go faster. That's required to develop some skill in analysis but it won't be enough to put it all together unless you are trading higher time frames, like swing trading.

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  #4 (permalink)
jeremymgp
Busan
 
 
Posts: 7 since Feb 2010
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Hi tpredictor,

Great response thanks, am sure you're quite right in the misguidedness of it all, just happen to think can make it work so putting it out there, agree completely working on my own discretionary trading is the answer really. The feel for the market is again something I likely have even, it's how we respond to that reaction to the markets, most people use their reaction to the markets to lose possibly.

Hedging idea is also great will give it a try, also the gray box and solid work advice all really good, am pushing my psychology as how we respond to the price and ourselves does seem to be at the core of trading, thanks again

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  #5 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
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Your honesty is refreshing. You need to keep experimenting(think paper trade) with some other methodology.
I didn't read the posts preceding mine but I would recommend if nothing else get a good understanding of price action and support and resistance. And MOST important what to do around s/r levels...things/actions to look for.
With time and/or going over charts, learn how the markets you trade behave around identified levels.

Look for patterns you yourself will be able to recognize that may increase your odds. That doesn't mean learn all the head and shoulder stuff and flying bats or whatever...just stuff that clicks in your head while you are going over charts.

Just remember sim/paper trading costs you nothing. Keep trying various things until you find something that works for you. Though you should remain adaptable because things periodically change and may not work forever...In the end as I previously mentioned price action is the most reliable, not fancy indicators with squiggly lines.

As a final note, don't be afraid to use different bar types or for that matter styles of charts.

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  #6 (permalink)
jeremymgp
Busan
 
 
Posts: 7 since Feb 2010
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Hi kbit,

Thanks for the response and encouragement, agree with experimenting with another methodology you're right. At the same time, a good trader can make money from any moving average crosses and traders with poor psychology will lose whatever the methodology. I'm convinced psychology is everything. A few things am finding really are true:

- newbie traders trade the market perfectly. It's not they can't trade and don't know the markets, they lose with such consistency it's astonishing there is clearly some knowledge there that is worth investigating. What they don't know is what to do with that information, they use it in a way that is governed by emotion and so lose every time.

- traders have two minds. their high mental response, and their possibly more physiological emotional response. it is the battle between these two that is trading. It is a battle between the spiritual and physical even.

- rule based trading and having "an edge" with a setup I've found are often vague at best. The real reason rule-based systems work for discretionary traders is that the rules provide a framework for controlling your emotional response, and learning from your higher mental response which can respond to the markets very well.

- trading a demo account and a live one at the same time can help. Not to reverse each other, both in the same direction. I am convinced again there are two mindsets, one where you know you are trading to win on an account and one where you are trading to lose. These days I can literally feel the switch - where I regain control of myself and I know I am trading again to actually profit and in control, or am trading according to emotion and will lose, if you play around with reversing yourself for long enough the two states are distinct.

- A very recent discovery just yesterday. You can choose simply not to get emotional. Whenever emotional responses start kicking in, when you realize it just tell yourself "no emotion" and take a breath. You don't need to feel this, this one trade doesn't matter, and just do what the charts are already telling you. You know what the price is doing now, it's just responding to it logically and dispassionately, rather than emotionally. This looks to be exceptionally useful, you can make this choice.

Hope this helps people, this may be an unusual approach, but for me this is infinitely more rewarding than wiggly indicator lines, and this little act of confessionalism is in itself possibly something many traders could benefit from. I agree the honesty is refreshing, when you get truly, horrendously honest with your own trading performance and work through that, good things happen. Cheers,

Jeremy

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 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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i have screened shared with some very good traders that were green most days...none of them i could use there method..here is why... in the end none used a hard set of rules for entry or management..that is the whole in the class of all the trading folks i have look at...and i seen a lot. by the tempo and what the market is not doing they can internalize that info and act on it. to put it in a better example it is like play music ... if you have herd or in there case seen that song many times you know when there is something off key... what ever method is used ..it is necessary to spend a lot of time on it...after you have internalize it..you see when it works but far more important. when it does not work..most trader do not go that way..they just keep looking..for something that works all the time // a lock .

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 rleplae 
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What is your edge ?
If you take a trade long or short, what is it based on ?
and what do your statistics look like ?

Once you have a system that works, and that feels OK, stick to it,
unless you feel the market is completely changing
but in general, a working system, works for some time

I agree with @kbit,
return to paper trading,
you need to be green on paper first

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 srgtroy 
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@tturner86 and I have discussed this concept in the past, and we refer to it as the George Costanza method, from the Sienfeld episode where George realizes everything he does is wrong and so he does the exact opposite.



To that effect, the best way to trade this method is to simply create an 'inverse' price chart and trade it.

Let us know how it goes...

p.s. -- the interesting thing is that theoretically, if you start to realize you are consistently losing with this method, then just flip the chart back to normal

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 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
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srgtroy View Post
@tturner86 and I have discussed this concept in the past, and we refer to it as the George Costanza method, from the Sienfeld episode where George realizes everything he does is wrong and so he does the exact opposite.



To that effect, the best way to trade this method is to simply create an 'inverse' price chart and trade it.

Let us know how it goes...

p.s. -- the interesting thing is that theoretically, if you start to realize you are consistently losing with this method, then just flip the chart back to normal


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  #11 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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jeremymgp View Post
Hi kbit,

Thanks for the response and encouragement, agree with experimenting with another methodology you're right. At the same time, a good trader can make money from any moving average crosses and traders with poor psychology will lose whatever the methodology. I'm convinced psychology is everything. A few things am finding really are true:

- newbie traders trade the market perfectly. It's not they can't trade and don't know the markets, they lose with such consistency it's astonishing there is clearly some knowledge there that is worth investigating. What they don't know is what to do with that information, they use it in a way that is governed by emotion and so lose every time.

- traders have two minds. their high mental response, and their possibly more physiological emotional response. it is the battle between these two that is trading. It is a battle between the spiritual and physical even.

- rule based trading and having "an edge" with a setup I've found are often vague at best. The real reason rule-based systems work for discretionary traders is that the rules provide a framework for controlling your emotional response, and learning from your higher mental response which can respond to the markets very well.

- trading a demo account and a live one at the same time can help. Not to reverse each other, both in the same direction. I am convinced again there are two mindsets, one where you know you are trading to win on an account and one where you are trading to lose. These days I can literally feel the switch - where I regain control of myself and I know I am trading again to actually profit and in control, or am trading according to emotion and will lose, if you play around with reversing yourself for long enough the two states are distinct.

- A very recent discovery just yesterday. You can choose simply not to get emotional. Whenever emotional responses start kicking in, when you realize it just tell yourself "no emotion" and take a breath. You don't need to feel this, this one trade doesn't matter, and just do what the charts are already telling you. You know what the price is doing now, it's just responding to it logically and dispassionately, rather than emotionally. This looks to be exceptionally useful, you can make this choice.

Hope this helps people, this may be an unusual approach, but for me this is infinitely more rewarding than wiggly indicator lines, and this little act of confessionalism is in itself possibly something many traders could benefit from. I agree the honesty is refreshing, when you get truly, horrendously honest with your own trading performance and work through that, good things happen. Cheers,

Jeremy

Your psychological journey sounds similar to mine. When I first started trading I decided to focus on these 3 core things:

1. Money management.
2. Psychological.
3. Technical

I kept a diary and looking back its quite amusing how I dismissed the psychological aspect as just another 'thing' to deal with Little did I know that it would become the most formidable barricade I have ever had to overcome.

Each person will have their own internal journey to take and mine was one of self discovery. You can only truthfully start to look into yourself and understand how your mind works when your ego and emotions are not sabotaging your thought process. For me, trading and losing with such dazzling regularity absolutely smashed my confidence and expectations into dust. From this place, I started to see how counterproductive my emotions were, so I focused purely on my entry and exit method and executed relentlessly. I then started building up my trade stats and after a while of looking back and analysing my trade decisions, I began to realise that it is just a game of numbers...how can I get upset about numbers on an excel spreadsheet? As long as my stop losses are contained, and winners are generally bigger than my average loser then I can be mindful of this fact every time I get that self sabotaging insecurity when it's time to take a trade.

I think that what I am trying to say to you is that the path you are on is the correct one. You are not doing anything wrong because even though you are consistently losing, this in itself is your greatest opportunity to learn. You have already figured out how not to do it, and that is half the battle, you now have to analyse your past trades and you will see exactly where you have gone wrong.

Good luck. You will get their.

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 n7ekg 
Pahrump, NV
 
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forgiven View Post
i have screened shared with some very good traders that were green most days...none of them i could use there method..here is why... in the end none used a hard set of rules for entry or management..that is the whole in the class of all the trading folks i have look at...and i seen a lot. by the tempo and what the market is not doing they can internalize that info and act on it. to put it in a better example it is like play music ... if you have herd or in there case seen that song many times you know when there is something off key... what ever method is used ..it is necessary to spend a lot of time on it...after you have internalize it..you see when it works but far more important. when it does not work..most trader do not go that way..they just keep looking..for something that works all the time // a lock .

I wonder why that is? Most of the traders I know trade with a clearly-articulatable set of well-defined rules. I myself have a setup so well-defined that I know exactly what my stop, entry, and exits are before I enter the trade. I can't imagine successfully trading any other way.

I have another friend who trades emotionally - "oh, the market is moving, I'm going to jump in!" Not surprisingly, she's not very successful at all.

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 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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n7ekg View Post
I wonder why that is? Most of the traders I know trade with a clearly-articulatable set of well-defined rules. I myself have a setup so well-defined that I know exactly what my stop, entry, and exits are before I enter the trade. I can't imagine successfully trading any other way.

I have another friend who trades emotionally - "oh, the market is moving, I'm going to jump in!" Not surprisingly, she's not very successful at all.

share some of those set-ups and rules with the rest of us. the traders i referenced could tell when the trade was working and let it run or get out be for the stop was hit .. they could do that by reading order flow an market breath indicators..i have not had much luck with patterns or re test failures ,, brake outs...fibs, waves, profiles...the normal stuff//

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  #14 (permalink)
jeremymgp
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So many interesting messages here want to thank everyone, flipping the chart is another good idea, again if I knew it was inversed I'd still likely lose. There are definitely two distinct mindsets when trading, one to win and one to lose, it's trading with the winning one that is possibly how system traders do it, they have their rules not necessarily because the rules in themselves are that great, but because the rules provide the psychological framework to maintain the winning mindset.

One thing you can also do is turn the bars off, on Ninjatrader the anaHeikenAshi indicator by Lizard Indicators (free) for example will ass HeikenAshi smoothed bars and remove the original ones, that can remove noise.

Also am still looking for someone just to trade with, anyone, Grantx for example would be great. All I need is Skype and I'll share my screen, you'll hardly know I'm there, thanks again,

Jeremy

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jeremymgp
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You wouldn't happen to know how to create an inverse chart would you, I've got a copier that can reverse or just copy Ninjatrader trades, it uses all kinds of interesting code not officially supported by Ninjatrader but in the program, but a inverse chart never seen that before. If anyone has a solution do let me know thanks.

Or I could just turn my notebook upside down,

Jeremy


srgtroy View Post
@tturner86 and I have discussed this concept in the past, and we refer to it as the George Costanza method, from the Sienfeld episode where George realizes everything he does is wrong and so he does the exact opposite.

To that effect, the best way to trade this method is to simply create an 'inverse' price chart and trade it.

Let us know how it goes...

p.s. -- the interesting thing is that theoretically, if you start to realize you are consistently losing with this method, then just flip the chart back to normal


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  #16 (permalink)
 srgtroy 
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jeremymgp View Post
You wouldn't happen to know how to create an inverse chart would you, I've got a copier that can reverse or just copy Ninjatrader trades, it uses all kinds of interesting code not officially supported by Ninjatrader but in the program, but a inverse chart never seen that before. If anyone has a solution do let me know thanks.

Or I could just turn my notebook upside down,

Jeremy

I did create an indicator for NT7 that has the option to invert prices here, but you have to be an elite member:



Anyway, the basic concept is to multiply price by -1, which can be done in any program.

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jeremymgp
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srgtroy View Post
I did create an indicator for NT7 that has the option to invert prices here, but you have to be an elite member:



Anyway, the basic concept is to multiply price by -1, which can be done in any program.

This is great thanks, thought of this before but assumed it would be complex coding, never thought to search for a pre-made one. There's also a free one I found at:
View Comments and Ratings - NinjaTrader Support Forum
so got that one as don't have Elite membership, early days but the psychology looks to be good to go, can read the charts just fine with minimal mental interference from being aware the trade is being reversed. Because it isn't being reversed so to speak, the basic psychological phenomenon of watching the chart move one way in the present, and so not being able to act the way you want on that but instead waiting for it to turn the other way in the future, is intact.

Also thought that seeing the positive profit/loss number would detract from performance, but no eventhere reading the chart is enough. Thanks ever so much, this is looking good must say,

Jeremy

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 n7ekg 
Pahrump, NV
 
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forgiven View Post
share some of those set-ups and rules with the rest of us. the traders i referenced could tell when the trade was working and let it run or get out be for the stop was hit .. they could do that by reading order flow an market breath indicators..i have not had much luck with patterns or re test failures ,, brake outs...fibs, waves, profiles...the normal stuff//

I use Murrey Math lines on a 4-tick range chart. The lines I use are 8/8 for the bottom of resistance, and +1/8 for the top of resistance, 0/8 for the top of support, and -1/8 for the bottom of support. Also note 4/8, the midpoint.

When price action comes up from -1/8 and crosses 0/8 to the upside, if that candle closes above the 0/8 (top of support) line, I go long at that point, placing my stop 1 tick below the -1/8 line (bottom of support). If I'm trading 2 contracts, I take 1 contract off when price action crosses the 4/8 midpoint, and move my stop to break-even +2 ticks. At that point, the trade is no-loss. When price action crosses the bottom of resistance (8/8 line), I close out the trade.

I use the same setup for shorts, except using the bottom of resistance for the entry and top of support for the exit. These rules allow me to know precisely where the entry, stop, and exit for the trade is.

Hope this helps.

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  #19 (permalink)
jeremymgp
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srgtroy View Post
@tturner86 and I have discussed this concept in the past, and we refer to it as the George Costanza method, from the Sienfeld episode where George realizes everything he does is wrong and so he does the exact opposite.



To that effect, the best way to trade this method is to simply create an 'inverse' price chart and trade it.

Let us know how it goes...

p.s. -- the interesting thing is that theoretically, if you start to realize you are consistently losing with this method, then just flip the chart back to normal

That idea where you flip back and forth sure it's right, there is definitely a cycle in my own psychology from euphoria with a large winning day, then small winning day, small losing day, then another small losing day, then large losing day to despair and finally despondency and shutdown where your sympathetic nervous system possibly gets over-stimulated, your body and psychology regulate, and then you're good to go for the next winning day and repeat the cycle again.

So possibly the skill in trading above all is just to identify when those losing days are starting to come in, and just leave a smokin' trail of dust in your wake as you get out those markets, take refuge in your demo, shake up charts do what you have to do, and reset so you just skip the big losing days.

This seems more relevant to my trading behavior than any indicator anyway, all good stuff thanks people for just existing and inputting, best,

Jeremy

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  #20 (permalink)
 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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n7ekg View Post
I use Murrey Math lines on a 4-tick range chart. The lines I use are 8/8 for the bottom of resistance, and +1/8 for the top of resistance, 0/8 for the top of support, and -1/8 for the bottom of support. Also note 4/8, the midpoint.

When price action comes up from -1/8 and crosses 0/8 to the upside, if that candle closes above the 0/8 (top of support) line, I go long at that point, placing my stop 1 tick below the -1/8 line (bottom of support). If I'm trading 2 contracts, I take 1 contract off when price action crosses the 4/8 midpoint, and move my stop to break-even +2 ticks. At that point, the trade is no-loss. When price action crosses the bottom of resistance (8/8 line), I close out the trade.

I use the same setup for shorts, except using the bottom of resistance for the entry and top of support for the exit. These rules allow me to know precisely where the entry, stop, and exit for the trade is.

Hope this helps.

do you have a murrey math indicator drawing the lines, are you trading just of the lines or using something else for directional bias and trading conditions ... like do you take the trades of the open or filtering with a moving average or ossilator or higher time frame murrey math lines...thanks for your input

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  #21 (permalink)
 n7ekg 
Pahrump, NV
 
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forgiven View Post
do you have a murrey math indicator drawing the lines, are you trading just of the lines or using something else for directional bias and trading conditions ... like do you take the trades of the open or filtering with a moving average or ossilator or higher time frame murrey math lines...thanks for your input

I just trade with the Murrey Math lines. I have an 89/13/34 EMA on my chart to determine direction - I hate to counter-trend trade...

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 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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n7ekg View Post
I just trade with the Murrey Math lines. I have an 89/13/34 EMA on my chart to determine direction - I hate to counter-trend trade...

i have look at lines but dismissed it as b.s. when they started to get in to the time cycles,and the one our pivots. i agree with the no counter-trend unless it is a false brake out or down of a major pivot.

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 jodistrict 
san diego
 
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It could work because if you are consistently losing, you are staying in your losing trades to long and cutting short your winners. That would force your buddy who does the reverse of everything you do to stay in his winners and cut his losers. So he would make money. If you lose on a simulator and he wins with real money, it would be a net win and you could split the profits. The problem is that when real money is involved, will you buddy stick to the system? So it doesn't get around the psychological difficulty. If he has the discipline to stay in the trade, he could win with any system that gives reasonable signals.

Another possibility: I once had a six figure trader tell me that when he was learning he would switch the colors on his P&L - green for loss and red for profit. That way, when you see green you become greedy and take your profit. But what you have actually done is cut your losses. When you see red you stay in the trade hoping it will come back. But what you actually did was stay in a winning trade. Or you may double down. What you actually did was add to a winner. You could become a profitable trader if someone switched the colors on your P&L without you knowing it.

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 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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jodistrict View Post
It could work because if you are consistently losing, you are staying in your losing trades to long and cutting short your winners. That would force your buddy who does the reverse of everything you do to stay in his winners and cut his losers. So he would make money. If you lose on a simulator and he wins with real money, it would be a net win and you could split the profits. The problem is that when real money is involved, will you buddy stick to the system? So it doesn't get around the psychological difficulty. If he has the discipline to stay in the trade, he could win with any system that gives reasonable signals.

no matter what line you are looking at there is a little zone around it that is a test mode. when price reacts to that mode he can tell how hard or soft it is in real time. he looks at home much volume an how fast that volume is coming in to support the trading idea. kind of like fishing he can tell by the tempo if there is a fish on and how big it is. i have to wait until my stop is hit... he can cut his trade when the order book has flipped be for price moves sharply through your stop. or if the trade goes the wright way he can tell if it has legs and add on to a winner. what i was trying to say it was the trade management that made them profitable. it was not a hard fixed set of rules and i could not copy . that does not mean there is another method. i like the way the lines map the market so to speck. i going to take another look at them. big mike likes them too...there is information and software out there but it is limited. the inventor says the key to making money with them is having the guts to take the reversals from the exstrems . thanks for sharing your experence

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 Spikeygirl 
Orlando, Florida USA
 
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n7ekg View Post
I just trade with the Murrey Math lines. I have an 89/13/34 EMA on my chart to determine direction - I hate to counter-trend trade...

Hey Forgiven!

The Murrey Math Indicator is just that, an indicator.

The premise:
IF YOU ARE BUYING [GOING LONG]
You place your BUY order at the 0/8 line with a STOP LOSS at the -2/8 line

IF YOU ARE SELLING [GOING SHORT]
You place your SELL order at the 8/8 line with a STOP LOSS at the +2/8 line

As the market travels the ladder then you move your STOP LOSS to the next level ...
What this means is:
If you are BUYING then as the market moves UPWARD you step accordingly ...

EXAMPLE:

The market moves to 2/8 line and you move your STOP LOSS to the 0/8 line ....
The market moves to the 4/8 line and you move your STOP LOSS to the 1/8 line ....

THE MORAL OF THIS INDICATOR:
You don't want to be TOO CLOSE because the market does retrace to test the prior level ... ALWAYS!!!

Based on what I read concerning Mr. Murrey he is using octaves to trade the market.

AN INDICATOR IS ONLY AS GOOD AS IT'S USER, YOUR WIFI SPEED AND THE WHAT KNOTS.
The MAIN AND MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT IS: ALWAYS, ALWAYS insert a STOP LOSS!!

ANOTHER TIDBIT: Depending on your capital the GOLDEN RULE IS: Only use 2 percent of your capital.
This way if one trade goes bad you have an opportunity to make it back ... on the next trade.

When I started, I used one contract per $5,000.00 account. When I doubled it I used 2 contracts ... etc.

All the best!
SPIKEYGIRL

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Dodje
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I would be willing to try this out with you Jeremy. What do you think is the best way to go about it? I would be willing to discuss some ideas with you over the phone. I'm in a similar situation with my trading, think there is alot of money to be made doing the opposite lol

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