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ES/YM Market Profile Analysis


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ES/YM Market Profile Analysis

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  #1 (permalink)
San Jose, Ca
 
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At the request of another member, I am doing some market profile analysis on the ES and the YM. Even though they tend to move in the same direction, there can be differences where the ares of support and resistance fall. I am minimizing the work a bit by just giving current support and resistance based on the end of day MP regular trading hours chart only. There are times that the overnight data can provide good areas of S/R to consider. Friday was an example of that on the ES. There was an area on the overnight profile that was resistance for the day session.

If the thread is useful to others and gets attention I will continue to do it as much as I can. If really only one or two members are looking at it regularly then I may not continue.

On the YM chart I do show a potential trade set up as well to give some idea how this can be used. You will notice there are no indicators on the charts. The YM does have the TS supper Trend, but that is really it and its there just to color the bars. Trading based on the profile and AMT is taking into account supply and demand as well as market structure. The reason I'm saying this is because the best point at which to take the trade would be at the NPOC or highest volume area. I'm not saying jump in front of a train, but if you see price stall and you can get an entry, that would provide the best R/R. Also, consider what is taking place. Price has gaped lower and is trading below value from the prior day. This says that traders no longer feel the value of the instrument is where it was yesterday. A further move down should be expected. In order to fill the gap it will need to clear the NPOC. The trend on the 20 range is down. Many things in favor of a short at the NPOC with the potential of better than 3:1. Just my opinions.

I hope this is useful and helps. ES and YM MP Chart.

Forgot to mention that I don't really have any bias on either the ES or YM. To me it looks like it can go either direction and there may be supporting evidence for both. From the Market Profile perspective I see selling, but at the same time i see buying. I see selling because of the selling tail at the highs on friday and I see buying because the market closed fairly strongly off the lows. I am also a firm believer that what takes place overnight has a bearing on what takes place during the day session. The open is an important part in relation to value. So, the info provided can be used as is, but I would suggest using it in context of what happens during the overnight and the open to the day sessions. Capiche?

D

David

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  #3 (permalink)
the congo
 
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David, thanks very much for this analysis, will have a look in more detail and comment tomorrow before market open.

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  #4 (permalink)
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David,

I'd be watching this thread intently. I'm currently getting into the whole Market Auction Theory and find it interesting. I follow the ES daily and have been using S/R with MP with some success (albeit on sim). An MP expert I follow (a friend) said that the strong close on Friday could be due to long liquidation. I personally have seen a lot of selling the past few days and am expecting a downward trend unless some initiative buying occurs because of some catalyst (news, reports, etc).

Should be a fun week.

thanks!

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  #5 (permalink)
the congo
 
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Looks like we got a bit of support off your lower support area on ES David, goona be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the cash session. Wouldn't supprise me if we see a normal distrubution day today or a continuation of the down move. Less likely to see too much strength but trying to keep an open mind!

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  #6 (permalink)
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ES update as of 11:00 am PDT. There was some significant resistance above around the 40 area. Even though opening above value the overnight traded lower. See pic.

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  #7 (permalink)
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ES end of day MP charts.

Added a YM MP chart, but limited. Similar to ES.
David

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the congo
 
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if we can get to the 48.50 area its going to be interesting to see how it reacts.

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  #9 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
if we can get to the 48.50 area its going to be interesting to see how it reacts.


Well, it got to the zone of 48.50 and reacted. I hope there was some shorting going on.

Chart of ES with 24 hour profiles and day session profiles. Still have a naked POC below. The close was pretty weak as well.

David

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  #10 (permalink)
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A more in depth look at the ES profiles. I've included a merge from Feb where support has come in as well as the prior 3 days not including today. My take on current s/r for tomorrow as well.

D

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August 24, 2010


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