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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work


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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work

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  #11 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Entry:
1-5 Why does any of this matter? What makes you think the market cares about any of these?

Exit:
1. Why is this an exit? Why does the market care that it touch a line on an indicator?
2. A 1 min price action is going to determine the potential end of an upleg? 1 min is noise nothing more.

1-5 Because its based on trend legs for scalps. The TMV accounts for volatility and trend direction, development, and endings. The exact reason why the market likes to interact with the TMV, and why its math works are unknown to me, I am not a statistician or code developer, but I guess its related to this and to overall market structure for its trends and reversals in the one minute SPX. Here is a link to a good definition of the TMV Learning Center ? TMV

The adx is a good measure of trend vs chop, so it adds or subtracts value from the TMV. The LRB thermo is a good indicator for trend strength or weakness, the exact reasons? I don't know, but the math just works fairly well. I believe her code is private thou. The price action swing is a mathematical measure of price direction and volume or ticks, which indicates relative market participation, thou I guess a volume delta would even increase the accuracy.

Why exit:
1. For the same reasons the TMV seems to work well with varied SPX trend structure formation, it also works well to indicate the potential termination of such trend. Why does the market care about that? I have no idea. But why does the market care about the formation of a bullish gartley pattern, or a 1-2-3 reversal, or sometimes fib levels? I don't know, do you know? Why does the market care about vpoc, about testing it? Because it was the most valuable price in the prior sessions, but why would that matter now, today? I am not sure, do you know? It doesn't work every time yet a lot of people use the statistics every day. The important thing is that vpocs are relevant.

2. I have to basically scalp because the combine rules don't allow for losses greater than $3k in a day, yet you should be able to make over $1k a day consistently, and so a scalping type of strategy is best at the moment, specially in volatile markets. If I had $100k for my self to trade, the strategy could be different, but that's not going to happen. And more importantly, the one minute price action swing indicator works well with both the one minute and the five minute.

I think the main reason for this to work at times is that the market is composed of people, and people like to see patterns repeat, trends to occur and end, we like to see a mix of harmony in the price behavior, but we also need some chaos because of the potential returns for the asset. Therefore there will be some mathematical relations that work in favor of good outcomes because they will capture a good balance between price action patterns and chaotic volatility.

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  #12 (permalink)
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marketvoyager View Post
1-5 Because its based on trend legs for scalps. The TMV accounts for volatility and trend direction, development, and endings. Here is a link to a good definition of the TMV Learning Center ? TMV

The adx is a good measure of trend vs chop, so it adds or subtracts value from the TMV. The LRB thermo is a good indicator for trend strength or weakness, the exact reasons? I don't know, but the math just works fairly well. I believe her code is private thou. The price action swing is a mathematical measure of price direction and volume or ticks, which indicates relative market participation, thou I guess a volume delta would even increase the accuracy.

Why exit:
1. For the same reasons the TMV seems to work well with varied SPX trend structure formation, it also works well to indicate the potential termination of such trend. Why does the market care about that? I have no idea. But why does the market care about the formation of a bullish gartley pattern, or a 1-2-3 reversal, or sometimes fib levels? I don't know, do you know? Why does the market care about vpoc, about testing it? Because it was the most valuable price in the prior sessions, but why would that matter now, today? I am not sure, do you know? It doesn't work every time yet a lot of people use the statistics every day. The important thing is that vpocs are relevant.

2. I have to basically scalp because the combine rules don't allow for losses greater than $3k in a day, yet you should be able to make over $1k a day consistently, and so a scalping type of strategy is best at the moment, specially in volatile markets. If I had $100k for my self to trade, the strategy could be different, but that's not going to happen. And more importantly, the one minute price action swing indicator works well with both the one minute and the five minute.

Having done a combine I can tell you that scalping is the worst thing you can possibly do.

You need to find ways to swing and catch big moves to make a combine work. Taking small profits and then losing it to large losses is all you will find trying to scalp. Especially under the weight of TST's risk tolerances.

Why do you believe that the TMV is successful? Because you traded it for 10 days?

Gartley patterns, fibs, etc are not viable and reliable for trading. VPOC is in a different category of these if you understand Market Profile (which the base of is dead according to the guy who created it in the 70's). There is no indicator that you can put on your chart that is full proof and that the market cares for.

I can put a simple RSI on a bar chart and use it to trade. Does the market care about that RSI indicator. No.

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  #13 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Entry:
1-5 Why does any of this matter? What makes you think the market cares about any of these?

Exit:
1. Why is this an exit? Why does the market care that it touch a line on an indicator?
2. A 1 min price action is going to determine the potential end of an upleg? 1 min is noise nothing more.

Here is an example of how the strategy worked on a fairly choppy Monday. TMV SPX strategy for Monday, October 26, 2015 - tradevoyager's library

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  #14 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Having done a combine I can tell you that scalping is the worst thing you can possibly do.

You need to find ways to swing and catch big moves to make a combine work. Taking small profits and then losing it to large losses is all you will find trying to scalp. Especially under the weight of TST's risk tolerances.

Why do you believe that the TMV is successful? Because you traded it for 10 days?

Gartley patterns, fibs, etc are not viable and reliable for trading. VPOC is in a different category of these if you understand Market Profile (which the base of is dead according to the guy who created it in the 70's). There is no indicator that you can put on your chart that is full proof and that the market cares for.

I can put a simple RSI on a bar chart and use it to trade. Does the market care about that RSI indicator. No.

Good argument, except we all know that the RSI doesn't work at all as a trading method.

I feel that I need to scalp to make the combine work because things have to be kept tight. Sure, I could look to swing with two lots, but that's the stuff of experts and I am no expert, so what are my chances on holding two lots for hours compared to something I have found is working for the moment? What if the back testing results are good? What if all it needs to be done are some adjustments for market cycles? Don't know but will sure try to find out.

Here is another example of a good TMV SPX day, 21.50 points if the rules where strictly followed. TMV SPX strategy for Friday, October 23, 2015 - tradevoyager's library

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marketvoyager View Post
Good argument, except we all know that the RSI doesn't work at all as a trading method.

I feel that I need to scalp to make the combine work because things have to be kept tight. Sure, I could look to swing with two lots, but that's the stuff of experts and I am no expert, so what are my chances on holding two lots for hours compared to something I have found is working for the moment? What if the back testing results are good? What if all it needs to be done are some adjustments for market cycles? Don't know but will sure try to find out.

Here is another example of a good TMV SPX day, 21.50 points if the rules where strictly followed. TMV SPX strategy for Friday, October 23, 2015 - tradevoyager's library

Lol... I love how you are so quick to disregard one indicator over the other. I could trade nothing but RSI on a 5 min chart. If you know RSI you can use it to determine trend vs range and that is half the battle.

These charts you are posting, did you look at these in hindsight and mark where you would have traded. If so they are meaningless.

But you are correct an indicator or any set of them are not a method. The method is a process of looking at information, determining a trade opportunity, and then executing the trade. The key is to look at information the market cares about and any indicator you put on the chart is already off that list.

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  #16 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Lol... I love how you are so quick to disregard one indicator over the other. I could trade nothing but RSI on a 5 min chart. If you know RSI you can use it to determine trend vs range and that is half the battle.

These charts you are posting, did you look at these in hindsight and mark where you would have traded. If so they are meaningless.

But you are correct an indicator or any set of them are not a method. The method is a process of looking at information, determining a trade opportunity, and then executing the trade. The key is to look at information the market cares about and any indicator you put on the chart is already off that list.

Could you help me or advice me on how to do a backtest with the TMV alone, or point me to somebody that could. Also, I am having trouble installing the gomi indicators, I know, there is a post on it, but I cannot find the details on how to properly set the environment variables for the recorder.

Can you then teach me a bit on your method with the RSI and what other considerations you take into account?

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  #17 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Lol... I love how you are so quick to disregard one indicator over the other. I could trade nothing but RSI on a 5 min chart. If you know RSI you can use it to determine trend vs range and that is half the battle.

RSI seems to be close in sync with the TMV when the RSI hits extremes, might be a good addition, watch this 2015-10-30_0059 - tradevoyager's library

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marketvoyager View Post
2. I have to basically scalp because the combine rules don't allow for losses greater than $3k in a day, yet you should be able to make over $1k a day consistently, and so a scalping type of strategy is best at the moment, specially in volatile markets.


tturner86 View Post
Having done a combine I can tell you that scalping is the worst thing you can possibly do.

You need to find ways to swing and catch big moves to make a combine work. Taking small profits and then losing it to large losses is all you will find trying to scalp. Especially under the weight of TST's risk tolerances.

...
I can put a simple RSI on a bar chart and use it to trade. Does the market care about that RSI indicator. No.


Big Mike View Post
1. That is not "simple".

Just a few thoughts I had while getting caught up on this thread:

1. Scalping, generally speaking, is not a good idea for almost anyone. A very few, very good traders have demonstrated the ability to scalp successfully over time. In most cases, you just have small profits that don't give you any cushion when the losses come.

2. The Combine rules let you do anything you want within their loss parameters. Most people who have done well in it have not gone after scalping-type trades.

3. With that said, probably the best thing, if you are now in a Combine, is to just carry on as you are now. That means, trade this method, in the way that you currently believe is the best, until you have either blown out the Combine or succeeded at it. You will do one or the other, obviously, and that is a simple test. Of course, you can, and should, make mid-course corrections if you find that you need to, but don't do them in a light way. Try to stick with it and learn if you can succeed with it. Look to be consistent.

4. Discussions of a theoretical nature may not be that helpful. Starting a journal where you can track your progress will likely be better. Post your trades along with the Trade Report daily, and think about, and comment honestly on, your trades, good or bad. That will help you to see what you need to fix and what works. The learning from doing it will be more valuable than you may realize now.

It is very likely that you will end up changing everything that you currently believe, but that will happen, or not, when you are actually using it, and reporting your results out will help. Who knows, maybe everything you are talking about now will work perfectly. Then you'll know that, too.

A lot of discussion about which indicators do what, or how they work, or what the rules are, may not be the best use of your time. Trying to trade the beast (the market) may be a better idea.

Just a few thoughts. Obviously, you'll be the one to decide what to do and whether to make use of them.

Good luck.

Bob.

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Big Mike View Post
Multiple webinars exist on the subject right here on FIO. They are high quality. I believe they are roughly 10 hours in length in total, perhaps 15 hours.

What is contained inside those 10-15 hours takes most people 10,000 hours or more to learn. In other words, they are worth everyone's time to watch on this entire site many, many times over.

Mike

Mike, from the webinars, could you possibly give me a top five or top ten list in terms of importance and educational yield from all the webinars listed?

I just found out that my strategy is quite hard to implement, you where right, even thou it usually works the execution is quite difficult.

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