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Nifty Trading Ideas: Market Profile


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Nifty Trading Ideas: Market Profile

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  #11 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received

NIFTY



We have clear double distribution day after a gap down, what many were expecting to happen yesterday. But better late than never. Our interpretation of yesterdays narrow range as redistribution was spot on, I am not patting my bat, but just happy that we could create some extremely low risk trading opportunities with that information.
Today after initial consolidation around 8200 we got a range extension down, which is a sign of aggressive sellers. Then we balance again and again extended the range lower from 8160 bang into the range mentioned yesterday of 8140, where we did find some aggressive buyers, alas it was in the last period so cannot be confirmed till tomorrow.
We also traversed the whole of lower distribution and closed on the verge of the range extension single prints around 8185.
Tomorrows open holds the key, the rules of trading the DD day applies, and there is a chance of prices trying to fill the area between the two distributions tomorrow. Open in the upper distribution above the single prints/extension handle is bullish, and staying below the single prints and extension handle will be bearish. the levels of 8100-90 are there on the downside and the two consecutive gaps and 27th POC on the upside, to plan your trading day.

BANKNIFTY



Banknifty also opened outside range and tried to enter yesterdays range, but bulls got too exhausted and formed a PH right at the lows of yesterday, the buying tail from yesterday was taken out by the gap down open.
After that we had a trend day, down. Though it looks like there were three consolidations and two clear range extensions separating them, the maximum width of the profile was never greater than 4 TPOs, that fits within the criterion of a trend day, with the kind of elongation we got today. But one may say that the profile looks too stretched out, or may be its just my imagination. But since it might prepare us for a possible up move, its worth considering as an option.
But for an up move to happen the two range extension single prints need to be taken out. And we do have a PH so if we do get an up move, we have some reference to above the markets plan our trades.
Below we have 17195-200 as an important reference level, below which we may target the extension handle from 29th Sep from 17100 - 16950.

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  #12 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received

NIFTY



Nifty opened in the lower distribution and took out the buy tail from yesterday in the early trade, that was a clear warning of lower prices to come, as mentioned in yesterdays report. Today too Nifty formed a DD day. The first distribution was very narrow, but then bears extended the range, and formed another distribution lower. The parting line lies between 8140-35 band, which should be the KRA for any up move.
We have a selling tail today in the opening period, adding to the bearishness. Add to it the value is completely lower, we are in for a test of even lower levels in coming days.
Tomorrow's trading plan looks much like today's, for a DD day. The open holds the key. Also we are now very close to two single print range extensions below the market (8100-90 and 8060-40). These extension handles marked in pink should provide support ideally, but since we have 4th day of lower value today, sellers are also looking up to the task.
But whatever the picture may look like, I take it one day at a time, with lower and higher references marked, lets see what the new series has in store for us.

BANKNIFTY



Banknifty also traded down in early trade, leaving behind a selling tail. But unlike Nifty it formed a narrow distribution throughout the day, giving a 'b' shape to the profile. Which might suggest that the trade is slowing to the downside.
But before the bulls could count on that fact, we had a strong late spike down, now spike trading rules apply, and we have to judge the state of the market by its response to this spike (17280-210).
The 11 TPO wide POC of today, may act like a magnet, if we open and trade within the spike. The spike highs and lows usually provide resistance and supports the next day, depending on how we open tomorrow.

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  #13 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received


NIFTY



Nifty futures have been adjusted today for the premium difference in yesterdays settlement prices of Oct and Nov contract on expiry day. That have caused the references to move up in our case. Thought the levels might have changed but the interpretation remains the same.
So we opened in the lower distribution today, which is bearish, and should have been looking for a good place to short, which could have been the parting line between yesterdays DD or the selling tail from the morning. We did trade above the parting line but got resisted at the selling tail, and continued to trade down through the day.
We balanced in the early part of the day filling the space between yesterdays 2 distributions, and then spiked down in K and L period, the spike needs to be confirmed tomorrow, so spike trading rules apply. The spike high and low become support and resistances (8125-65).
We took out the first extension handle and have reached the second, although via a spike which happened on heavy volume. Below the second extension handle we have the 8000 level below (marked on the chart) the CVAH of the 28th Sep weekly profile, and below that we have the CPOC around 7930 for the same week.
So based on the response we get tomorrow, the lower KRA are in place, as for upper KRAs, we have the selling tail from 29th and the extension handle from a day before 29th. Till these levels are taken out we can safely sell into the rallies. like the one we had earlier today. the value today is overlapping to lower.

BANKNIFTY



Banknifty had a prominent POC yesterday and today also we traded around that. Yesterdays 'b' shape did not trigger any short covering as we could not find any acceptance above the fat part of yesterdays 'b'.
The rejection of higher prices in D period actually lead to a selloff which accelerated late in the day. Which was a classic example of shorting in the hole, away from value, which has been building for 2 consecutive days. That resulted in a sharp snap back to the fairest price over last 2 days in the closing periods. Though the buying was aggressive, we still need confirmation tomorrow.
Below the market we have an extension handle in the 17200-070 range from 29th Sep which might provide support. and above the market we have the composite fat profile for last 2 days and a selling tail from 29th Oct as first hurdles to cross for any meaningful up move.
We have a outside value today.

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  #14 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
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Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
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  #16 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
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  #17 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
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  #18 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
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  #19 (permalink)
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
Posts: 10 since Oct 2015
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Interesting thread. I have been very interested in market profile recently. What platform are you using?

Been trying to find a platform with market profile and a DOM as feature rich as OEC.

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  #20 (permalink)
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
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