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New to futures, can someone offer some guidance please?


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New to futures, can someone offer some guidance please?

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  #11 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Keep it simple and observe/learn how the market auctions back and forth. Try to identify who is in control.
If short term is in control then market will balance, in that case fade the market at the edges.
If longer term is in control don't wait for large rotations, just get in and go with trend, don't fade it.


Don't be greedy and look at every trade as $$$$
Don't be afraid and be so fearful that you keep missing the opportunities

Finally - once you understand the auction, stop thinking and just trade.

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  #12 (permalink)
SF Bay Area + CA/US
 
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could'nt agree more....great insight.


DbPhoenix View Post
The third step is to develop your system.

What are they doing?
Where are they doing it?
Why are they doing it? Why are they doing it where they're doing it and when they're doing it?
How are they doing it?

. . .


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  #13 (permalink)
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7
Broker: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
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DbPhoenix View Post
The third step is to develop your system.

A system consists of (a) a set of rules that you use to select profitable positions and (b) a set of rules that you use to manage the trade once you're in it (again, whether you call it a system, a method, a strategy, a plan, a scheme, an approach, a procedure, or a modus operandi is not as important as sitting down and doing it).

Developing a system begins with deciding just what it is you're looking for. Therefore, begin by studying price movement in real time (or at the end of the day through "replay", if your charting program offers it). By "study", I mean to observe it with intent, not just read about it or listen to somebody talk about it. You have to understand what you're looking at before you know what to look for. Note the conditions under which price rises, falls, drifts. Make every effort to avoid imposing your biases onto what you observe. You may see trading as a war, a competition, a game, or a puzzle. You may think you're out to kill somebody, outwit somebody, or are out only to detect the flow and slip into it, riding the waves as if you were sailing. None of this should be allowed to affect what you observe.

Pretend that you are watching a team sport in which you know nothing about the rules and couldn't care less about the players, much less about who wins. But you do want to understand what's going on, out of curiosity if nothing else. Your chief thought is not when you should jump onto the field and begin playing. Your chief thought centers around the following questions, primarily What the Hell Are These People Doing? So you observe.

What are they doing?

Where are they doing it?

Why are they doing it? Why are they doing it where they're doing it and when they're doing it?

How are they doing it?

What do they want to accomplish? What were they doing before?

If one observes the game long enough, he begins to discern the rules and will enter a phase where he pretty much understands what's going on but still has no interest in which team wins.

And if the teams are buyers and sellers . . .

Dude this is great. It's reaffirming to have my suspicions confirmed. Thanks again man

Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk

-Jimmy
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  #14 (permalink)
Phoenix AZ
 
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012

The challenge now is to get rid of all the indicators as one isn't really "trading price" unless price is all he has on his screen.

This is not to say that indicators are of no use; but if one is using them, even a moving average, he's trading something in addition to or even instead of price.

It's a matter of focus. Proper focus leaves no room for emotions.

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  #15 (permalink)
Indianapolis/IN
 
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DbPhoenix View Post
The challenge now is to get rid of all the indicators as one isn't really "trading price" unless price is all he has on his screen.

This is not to say that indicators are of no use; but if one is using them, even a moving average, he's trading something in addition to or even instead of price.

It's a matter of focus. Proper focus leaves no room for emotions.

I may be ready to go the no-indicators route. Do you allow/recommend drawing regression channels, trend lines, and S/R lines?

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  #16 (permalink)
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
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DbPhoenix View Post
The challenge now is to get rid of all the indicators as one isn't really "trading price" unless price is all he has on his screen.

This is not to say that indicators are of no use; but if one is using them, even a moving average, he's trading something in addition to or even instead of price.

It's a matter of focus. Proper focus leaves no room for emotions.

Is this how you are trading @DbPhoenix? I'm not sure if you're being serious or cynical :P

I'm finding that the theory of relativity disproves any usage of indicators - assuming that each scenario/trade setup can only be evaluated in context, then every new moment must be evaluated in current context, and is somewhat dismissing the previous moment's context.

I further hypothesize that the prior moment's context has an exponential decay in relation to the current moment. You know, the usual weighted value hypothesis. Our memory decays, so current memories have more weight than more distant memories.

Then again, I'm on a post-workout euphoric high right now lol

-Jimmy
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  #17 (permalink)
Phoenix AZ
 
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012


dalebru View Post
I may be ready to go the no-indicators route. Do you allow/recommend drawing regression channels, trend lines, and S/R lines?

What I said was in reply to the two posts that were deleted. But it still stands. And as this is a trading thread and not a journal, I see no reason not to pursue it.

"Trading price" means exactly that: trading price. Not MAs nor indicators nor envelopes nor bands nor "pivots" nor anything else drawn by a computer, including candles. No, not even bars.

This is not to say that the trader can't plot anything he likes on his charts. No one's going to break down his door and shoot 'im. But it bothers me that so many people think they're trading price when they're not. Then when it doesn't "work", trading price gets a bad rap.

Trading price is the "newest and latest", like candles were twenty years ago. I can't say why, unless it is that traders have been futzing with the dozens (hundreds?) of indicators and bar/candle mutations and time displacements all this time and none of it has worked out as advertised. They go on for five, ten, fifteen years or more just getting by, if that. And the movement of price remains a complete mystery.

So you can probably guess that my answer to your question is "no".

But (there's always a "but"), whether lines have any value or not depends in large part on how far out into the weeds the trader is. He may very well need a line to pull himself back onto the straight and narrow. He may then need a line to keep him there, like the white stripe down the middle of the road. But the line he chooses to draw must be based in market realities, not on something that resides primarily -- or only -- in his head, just as the white stripe on the road has to follow the road: it can't wander off onto the shoulder and into the next county through various fields and pastures.

Eventually, though, he will be able to negotiate the road without any lines at all, as with many country lanes. He'll be able to look at a chart and see whether price is trending or ranging and, if ranging, how wide the range is. He'll be able to see at what levels buyers aren't willing to go and at what levels sellers aren't willing to go. He will then have some idea of what to do about it. How quickly this can be learned depends partly on desire and partly on how much has to be unlearned. If the trader's cup is full (with misinformation of various sorts), then whatever he attempts to learn with regard to trading price will just spill onto the floor. If on the other hand his cup is empty, he's good to go, which is one of the chief reasons why beginners find this so easy to understand (the other is that they have not yet learned to be afraid).

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  #18 (permalink)
Phoenix AZ
 
 
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FABRICATORX View Post
Is this how you are trading @DbPhoenix? I'm not sure if you're being serious or cynical :P

I'm finding that the theory of relativity disproves any usage of indicators - assuming that each scenario/trade setup can only be evaluated in context, then every new moment must be evaluated in current context, and is somewhat dismissing the previous moment's context.

I further hypothesize that the prior moment's context has an exponential decay in relation to the current moment. You know, the usual weighted value hypothesis. Our memory decays, so current memories have more weight than more distant memories.

Then again, I'm on a post-workout euphoric high right now lol

In answer to your question, yes. I haven't used indicators of any sort for years. Nor do I attempt to mangle time. And it can be assumed that anything having to do with range bars or CVBs or volume displays, much less colors, are likewise not part of my universe.

Just price.

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  #19 (permalink)
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB, Tallinex, & 10 others.
Trading: Futures
 
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Posts: 195 since Jun 2013
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DbPhoenix View Post
In answer to your question, yes. I haven't used indicators of any sort for years. Nor do I attempt to mangle time. And it can be assumed that anything having to do with range bars or CVBs or volume displays, much less colors, are likewise not part of my universe.

Just price.

I'm intrigued by the idea of not using volume as triangulation. Just price. Huh.

I've been guided to study one single instrument, coincidentally NQ was suggested, so now the ticker sits on my home screen all day.

Be right back, gonna read every post you've ever made in futures.io (formerly BMT).

-Jimmy
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  #20 (permalink)
Phoenix AZ
 
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012



FABRICATORX View Post
I'm intrigued by the idea of not using volume as triangulation. Just price. Huh.

I've been guided to study one single instrument, coincidentally NQ was suggested, so now the ticker sits on my home screen all day.

Be right back, gonna read every post you've ever made in futures.io (formerly BMT).

So you're a masochist?

Young traders -- and many not-so-young traders -- look at the market through the wrong end of the telescope. They begin with what is, then look backward to see how we got to this point. If one starts at the beginning, though, with the tape, then much of what this generation of traders relies on becomes irrelevant: volume, bar intervals, indicators, even charts.

What we do now has been the way of things for less than twenty years. But markets have been around for thousands.

As for reading all my posts, the pdf below would be a lot faster:

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