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When to take Profits , Add to a Position, and Exit a position ??


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When to take Profits , Add to a Position, and Exit a position ??

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  #1 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

I would like to get as many other trader's advice, on the methods / Indicators that they use, in determining a " Realistic " profit target , as well as how they base their decision on , when to add to a position

Here's my thoughts on the topic at hand...

I'm going to use the ES for the example

Currently I use the ATR Indicator ( set to a 1 week look back period ) with a 3 x multiplier on my weekly chart
I have it on such a long term chart, as to help keep me into my trades ( especially when I catch a good trend )

But what I am wanting to do, is to incorporate the ATR , in conjunction with the ADR and the Fibonacci Extension drawing tool

Here is what I mean..... Let's say that we are using the ADR on a 9000 tick chart on the ES
and we also have the ADR plotted on the chart ( set to a 15 day look back period )
The reading that we get from the ATR shows us that the average ADR of the ES over the past 15 days is 20 points ( the average )
So given this, how would other traders use this 20 point ADR " daily move " , and set your profit targets based off of it ?
Would you risk 25% of the 20 points ( 5 points ) and have a profit target of 15 ... for a 3:1 reward to risk ratio

or would you base your stop and Target(s) on the structure of the chart itself .... I.E. where the support and resistance levels are ?

I have been running analysis to do the following :
If the ADR shows 20 points, then I will " low ball " my target , and assume that I " should " be able to achieve hitting a 15 point target ( in theory of course )
I will place my stop on a structural basis of the chart .... I.E. below a recent Low for example if I'm going Long , or just below a solid support level

I like to always shoot for a 3:1 reward to risk ratio , so if my stop based on the structure of the chart ( says ) for me to place my stop 3 points below my entry , then I will place it at that 3 point level
And with a 3:1 reward to risk trading methodology, My target at minimum would be 9 points..... The ADR is showing 20 points..... 75% of 20 points is 15 points ..... and thus my 9 point target is well below the 20 point ADR number, so it " shouldn't " have to much trouble hitting the profit target
Of course this is all just hypothetical , and nothing is for certain

I am just trying to see what other traders use for determining there profit targets , as well as how they decide when to add to their positions?

One last thing is..... I also use the Fibonnaci extension tool , set at each 100% level
I look to add to my position at each 200% level that is hit , and then trail the trade 200% " from behind "
So if I enter at 2100.00 and my stop is 2000.00 ..... I will add to my position at each 200% move that the trade moves in my favor ( at 2300 , 2500, 2700, etc. )

Also have heard that some traders like to use the extension levels of.... 127%, 1.618, 1.999 , 2.333
I have plotted these extension levels on my charts from the point of entry, and it seems almost like a self fulfilling prophecy, that price gravitates towards these levels , and reverses, pulls back, etc...


Sorry for the long post
I really appreciate any feedback and to learn how others determine their targets / adding to positions

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  #3 (permalink)
chrisplecker
Charlottesville, VA
 
 
Posts: 21 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 13 received


/ES is super liquid. Whenever I hear somebody criticizing about slippage in /ES, I know they have either never traded /ES before or haven't traded before period. I know people that scalp 100-200 lots at market orders for 2-3 ticks. You should set a specific daily profit goal that is easily attainable, and a daily loss limit. Your upside is increasing your size. Look up Al Brooks. He's been doing it for decades. Have small easy high probability goals, and just add size.

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  #4 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

Hi chrisplecker,

I appreciate your reply

For those traders that scalp 100 - 200 lots at a time and aim for making 2-3 ticks ..... what is their stop loss like ?
is it the same stop loss as profit target ( 2-3 ticks ) ?

On the increasing the size of the trade ..... do you mean scaling into a trade ( after you have already entered into one )
Or
are you referencing increasing the number of contracts I currently trade , and entering my trades with say 5 contracts vs the 3 contracts I have currently been entering the market with ?

The main key I can see, is having a real life and actual Edge , and then as you mentioned .... compounding that Edge, by increasing your contract size , on a per trade basis

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