I typed those out manually after using those SierraChart studies I posted to get the data like I showed in those charts.
I wouldn't really recommend using that type of data for active trading, however... It definitely helps with understanding the situation and the best way to trade it.
It's kind of interesting... Each one of these rallies out of severe corrections over the last couple years has resulted in periods of very low mean return probability until they lose momentum. This recent rally was historic... You have to go back to October 2001 in order to find a rally that had such a low 20 period 5SMA mean return. It ran at 20%!!!
Hmmm... You know what, I am thinking about creating a set of indicators that monitors a markets mean return propensity very accurately and smoothly. Need to use multiple moving averages and some filtering techniques... Will mess around with it this weekend.
There is some very interesting repeating patterns in markets behavioral changes... It's almost like there is cycles in behavior. Even when a market is moving sideways, it appears to have a "peak" of ranging behavior then a sudden shift to trending which can be confirmed technically...
Ok, going to share one of my more proprietary charts... Before I was like... "Ah, momentum loss... Doesn't matter, we can hold together until Jan/Feb."
I'm actually not so sure anymore. We have what I would call "moderate" tail risk over the next couple weeks... Daily short term upside momentum is just dying off unusually fast.
This is based on weekly broad market composite momentum. S&P, Nasdaq, DOW.
Still, it's most likely we just get a small dip and don't fail before Jan/Feb, but the odds are kinda iffy. No long trades for me, except very short daytrades. It's kind of an odd situation. The math says the market is strong and should form a multi-wave rally, but this wasn't really a "real" rally through mid to late stage. That Japan market support created synthetic strength.
Meh.... Had some good morning shorts off resistance, then lost a point as that rally started. Got it back after 2080. Cutting shorts here on break of downside range. Cyall later!
It's kinda funny how the original planned trading levels for the day from the previous day are usually the best plan...
Positioning short on that 11:20 bounce was kinda dumb. It was way too soon after upside crossover to fade resistance... Jobs report got me a little too bearishly biased.
People grabbing up bargains at support assuming that those who chickened out into late day today on holding over the weekend will return to buy Monday.
I should have just shorted heavy at resistance and held position into late day. In/out in/out daytrading is just annoying...
One of the important things to understand about news is that it can cause short term tail risk.
A surge of daytraders going short or long after a big positive or negative news release creates a risk of the move reversing violently when the demand or supply surge dies off.
If the move is reinforced by "investor" supply or demand... It defuses the risk...
Big news releases in the morning that really effect the market tend to die off around noon.
However, the caveat is that this is only the case in "normal" market conditions. High complacency... No trends, non RORO market.
I'm looking at this market behavior in recent times... And it is very frigging strange. There is just no multi-day surges of speculators like there is in past bull markets.
People are just not really buying into it, and that is why the 3-5 day rally cycle doesn't exist right now.
It's like a situation where the market just chops upward in "fear", lol...
