Some Fib levels to watch. We are right at the important 1.618 extension of the last move down. A kiss of 4100 is in order, but I don't know how much more without a pullback.
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I like to watch for correlations or divergences between the top stocks in the NQ like AAPL, as well as between the other indices and other related ETF and cash indices.
I look at SPY, QQQ, SPX$, and individual stocks like AAPL. Sometimes the lead or lag the index.
So we kissed 4100 and sold off as expected. The 1.272 and 1.618 fib extensions have been rather precise targets for this swing, with the confluence of 4100 and the 1.618 extension acting as a ceiling, so far.
In terms of retracement, two levels of confluence highlighted in the next chart stand out:
1. Confluence of 23.6 retracement and 127.2 extension from 4045.96 to 4036.06.
2. Confluence of 32.8 retracement and 4000 psychological level.
I have to admit that there are other, more sophisticated fib methods that I use, but currently the freemasons will not allow me to disclose them
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Not that the fib stuff you showed is at all bad. I always have trouble making them work, except in hindsight.... Will be interesting to see if it can work out consistently going forward.
Bob.
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Of course I forgot to actually check my secret sauce. I thought we were too far away from anything significant but it turns out that for today's eth session -- it was around 4059-60. However, since this is after the fact, it does not count in terms of my creditability but it is still a valid level for today's ETH session. RTH level may be slightly different, I need to wait for the first tick of that session.
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Today ECB will affect the markets. But I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL does sink a bit lower on reports that the hacking is beyond iCloud. There are reports of celebs iPhones being backdropped. I'll post the link once I find it.
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These are the areas I'm watching all depending on development of the price action. I will have a better idea after the shake out at the open, but I'm leaning to the upside. Looks like we had a bit of a momentum shift on the 15/60 minute with 60 area acting as support.
Looking at targets 4100 20 point move from 80 normal range. Will adjust expectations on pace and such as needed. I think yesterdays move was a good correction.
Q's are currently at 99.80
Those are just some thoughts.
Process oriented goals #1.
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Key today will be if the QE from ECB will be entice the BTFDers to coming and buy. The areas look good, just be ready if you see a failure at the highs (possible double top).
I see evidence for both sides bear and bull... I'll await the open to see who takes the lead.
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The expectation when prices re-enter within the value area from below is a pullback to the value area low and continuation to the other side, in our case the value area high with a pause at the VPOC (profit taking).
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Yep @srgtroy and I had it noted. I missed a long on the bounce because I aimed just below it. I like to mark the Globex H/L and see how price interacts with it during the day session.
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Played out nicely like you thought. The barbwire from 11-1PM CST drove me out of the market. So I missed the initial move, but I got 5PTs after the spike below the ADR of 4074.
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I am interested in how you are using the weekly MP. Do you have any links to info on MP that talks it a bit more? I have a general understanding of MP, but don't always know what the expectations are on certain events.
Large wedge on the day. Measured moved from apex would be down to 4048. Took another trade short again from 4068, with SL locked in at 4066 at the moment. EDIT: out at 4058.
Emerson posted the list, but I watch those stocks along with the QQQ and SPY. A lot of time the ETFs can lead or lag and give you signals if a move has more room to run or reverse.
I watch the stocks because their news, earnings, or other items can affect the overall index. I believe you should know your product inside and out. Our product is a basket of Nas stocks. If you trade CL you should have a good understanding of how crude is produced and sold, how manufactures and customers control supply and demand, etc.
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Yesterdays push up, was on stong momo. With that degree of ascent the re-tracement was logical. 60 zone holding support. Followed by a mild two wave correction not sharp as the previous re-tracement. It appears we have momentum shift in play.This supported the non farm payrolls move. Something we have going for us on the short side is the lower high circled in red also we have slightly lower lows.
Process oriented goals #1.
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For the NQ and the ETFs it is mainly technicals for me. On the individual stocks I will look at technicals and fundamentals.
I like to watch the high flying or heavy weighted stocks because if the index is in one direction and AAPL starts making new h/l it can pull the index in that direction. Sometimes you can get a heads up. Or on the other side if you are in a trade and AAPL starts reversing it could lead to a reversal in the index.
Price bounced off a nice confluence of the 4050 psychological level and the 4045 23.6% retracement and made its way right back to the 4100/161.8 Extension confluence. Unfortunately, I had not noticed this confluence before but it was there.
Note, however, that price did not really touch the 23.6% retracement so I do not consider that to have actually been tagged, which means it could still be in play later.
Also, Friday's bar is the first divergent bar (using RSI) on this whole swing up and divergence against fib resistance can often lead to a reversal.
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I also mentioned two other levels to watch. Prior to this weekend I was only able to calculate these levels within a few ticks but I have now figured out how to do it to the tick. The correct levels were 4071.75 ETH and 4064.25 RTH. Let's see how they worked on Friday:
Some levels to watch on Sunday are:
4100 (of course)
4093
4084.75
4073
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I think what I will do is post fib levels for the next week over the weekend and then try and update with daily fibs during the week. So for the next week, here are some key fib levels from high to low:
of course, there are more above and below this range should we get there. Also, these are all based on ETH chart, will leave the RTH for now until I work a few things out on that one.
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Pullback overnight is gradual near the 80 zone, looking at a target of 4100-4110. If the market decides to correct and go short side 4170-4160. My current bias is to the long side.
Q’s at price 99.80.
Process oriented goals #1.
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We closed the session right at the 161.8 fib extension again -- 4093 -- after a visit down to the 100% projection at 4073. There was actually a rth fib at 4075 that helped provide support there but I'm not doing the rth fibs yet "officially". For the tuesday session only, there is an additional fib at 4097.5 (small green line). So now we have resistance at 4100, 4097.5 && 4093 for tomorrow with a potential divergence smack up against it. If the NQ is gonna turn around and go down, this would seem like the time and place to do it. Otherwise, if we break and hold above 4100, then its a decent chance its the start of the next leg up.
Update: Tomorrow is Apple's big event so the timing fits...
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4040 to 4060 to 4080 over the current week is my rising trendline. I believe that we may get some test of that this week. The black line is 4080 a measured move from the early 2014 trading range that formed in Feb.
50 EMA is at 3967, 100 EMA is at 3828, and 150 EMA is at 3760. We last touched the 50 EMA on 8-8-2014, last touched the 100 EMA on 5-20-2014 and last touched the 150 EMA on 5-9-2014.
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Looks like the triple resistance plus RSI divergence outlined yesterday was too much for the NQ and we got a down day as expected, right back down to the 38.2% extension at 4053.
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Lots of support starting at 4056.25 though, for tomorrow. We need to push through that for the divergence to play out, otherwise we could stay range bound.
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I didn't trade today, but If I did..here is how it would most likely go down if I was actively at my computer throughout this chart's time frame. Maybe similar to if I automated my system.
yellow stars are the entries, Red circle = stopped out, Blue circle = out at break-even, Green circle = profit (all trades are short with the trend)
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Slight lower high on the 60 but I think there is a better opportunity to go retest the highs again. I doubt a breakout to the short side, but we'll see.
Process oriented goals #1.
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According to the fib structure, path of least resistance is up, but I wouldn't be surprised if we test lower first. Only caveat is a decent RSI divergence on the Daily.
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Price has broken and closed outside the trendline. Possible BO pullback buy. Looking for a good bounce off W-DP and close above it to continue the rally into the close. Failure could lead to mean revision on the day.
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I already posted this elswhere, but I think it also belongs in this thread.
Data input is limited, from july 2013 on.
See below distribution of ON ranges, RTH ranges, and their relationship. Numbers are whole points.
On the charts the y-as shows #occurences, x-as shows range-bracket. So for ON range 10-15 points occured about 78 times etc.
One of my worst enemies are my own false assumptions
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Price gapped down on the open and then looked to fill the gap. We pulled back after hitting the Previous Week close, we are still looking to close gap on the day. YClose is 4093.25.
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Big rejection. We have now closed below the AWN Low, if we can get some follow through down here we could see some more downside. We have also closed below the ADN low for today.
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CP has held the market beneath it and each break above has been lower and lower.
Overall September is a TR. Low 4050's are buys and 4100's are sells. I am not surprised that the MM from the Feb TR ended in the TR in September. Although the current TR is tight for September I would be surprised to see some sell off, test areas lower and find more dip buyers for another rally. That could be weeks or months away. Remember the Feb TR took until Apr/May to break out.
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Testing the 20 SMA on the daily, a close down here would be a break of the trendline. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another expanding cone action we saw in early Feb. Not saying that will happen, will just have to watch the VIX and ADR and see what happens.
Overall there are a few areas below to test and find support.
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A 10% correction from current price would be 3645 area. Not making any calls, but I like to keep things in perspective.
I do believe that we may see some down before up. I would like to see a break down of the current trading range and that break down get bought into a new rally.
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I would like to see a correction, but before then we will need to break support around 4050. We've retested this zone multiple times (more than three X's), we may break we may not.
I would watch the action to see what it's doing around 4050.
Friday's action possible start to retest highs. I'm watching the pace into the 4050-4055 level.
Just some thoughts.
Process oriented goals #1.
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I concur on the 4050's being support. It is the floor of the current TR and if buyers fail to buy it would could get a bigger move down. I believe that this TR will increase in size before we see a real correction or continuation. Next week will be interesting with all the data releases and new events.
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+112 ticks on the old contact. Switching to the new one. I am done for the day, but will do some homework and gather some ideas for tomorrow on new contract.
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FactSet StreetAccount Summary - US Weekly Recap: Dow (0.87%), S&P (1.10%), Nasdaq (0.33%), Russell (0.81%)
12 Sept 2014 07:47 pm
Overview:
• US equities finished lower this week. Newsflow was relatively quiet, with markets generally struggling for direction.
• Most attention revolved around next week's FOMC meeting and a steady rise in Treasury yields. Speculation grew that the Fed would change its forward guidance in the post-meeting statement to allow greater flexibility around the timing of tightening.
• The economic outlook remained largely unchanged due to a light calendar. Retail sales were the highlight, with the headline figure for August increasing as expected, while the ex-autos measure beat the consensus.
• Geopolitical developments were limited. President Obama's announcement regarding ISIS contained few surprises, Ukraine-Russia tensions remained on the backburner, while there was limited US impact from concerns about Scottish independence risks.
• The Apple product launch highlighted the corporate calendar, generating generally positive Street reaction that was also reflected in the stock's weekly outperformance.
• Among sell-side conferences, takeaways from the Barclays Global Financials Conference generally met expectations, while comments from the Goldman Sachs Communicopia Conference drove price action among some telecom names.
• Energy was the notable laggard as oil prices came under further pressure. Rising Treasury yields likely hindered utilities and telecom, but helped banks. Tech led gains, helped by Apple and several Internet names.
Focus on FOMC guidance:
• The main story of the week revolved around potential changes to the Fed's forward guidance language. While there had been talk about the issue for some time, speculation of a change at next week's FOMC meeting intensified after the publication of several news articles. Most focused on the likelihood that the FOMC may drop the phrase "considerable time" from its post-meeting statement. The phrase relates to the amount of time that the Fed would keep rates at current levels after the end of QE. Some articles noted that the language change could be a sign of quicker-than-expected tightening, while others said that Fed officials would be attempting to change the language without spurring a sharp jump in bond yields. There was also some focus on a San Francisco Fed paper that said investors may be underestimating the pace of Fed tightening. Treasury yields rose steadily during the week, with the rate on the 10-year jumping 17 bp to ~2.61%.
Economic data mostly positive:
• The recovery narrative remained largely unchanged in a light week of economic releases. Retail sales were the highlight, rising an expected 0.6% in August. Sales ex-autos beat the consensus at +0.3% versus +0.2%. Aside from strength in auto sales, gains in building materials & garden equipment and food services & drinking places were the highlights. Also, July's numbers were revised higher. Consumer confidence numbers were also upbeat, with the Michigan consumer sentiment index for September rising to 84.6 versus a 83.5 consensus, while the final August reading was 82.5 after a preliminary 79.2 figure. Consumer credit data for July showed a notable jump in revolving credit, the component in which credit cards are tracked. The component rose $5.4B versus a $1.8B gain in June after being relatively flat through much of the post-crisis recovery. In employment, the JOLTS report for July showed the number of job openings remained largely unchanged.
Oil weakness weighs on energy:
• Crude oil prices remained under pressure with WTI futures falling to their lowest level since May 2013 at $90.43 on Thursday. Headwinds came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowering its 2014 global demand outlook, while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC both lowered their forecasts for 2015 global demand growth. The EIA added that US oil production reached a 28-year high in August. In addition, the WSJ noted on Friday that the average retail price for a gallon of regular gas fell to $3.42, down 3.8% y/y. The decline in oil saw energy finish as the worst performing sector and it is also the laggard over the past three months. There was broad weakness across the sector, with several refiner names selling off sharply, notably WNR (9.4%), VLO (8.7%), HFC (8.2%). The lower energy prices seemed to provide a tailwind for the airline and trucking groups in the industrials sector, with LUV +3.2%, DAL +1.2% and WERN +1.9% among the better performers.
Apple helps tech outperform:
• Tech was the best performer, with gains driven by AAPL +2.7%. Tuesday's product launch was generally well received by the Street, with Goldman Sachs and Atlantic Equities both raising their targets on the stock, although Pacific Crest downgraded it. Recall the stock performed strongly in the lead-up to the event in which the company unveiled the iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, Apple Watch and a new payment process in partnership with major networks and banks called "Apple Pay". There were pockets of strength elsewhere in the sector, notably in Internet with YHOO +8.3% given a lift ahead of the Alibaba IPO, while TWTR +2.8%. P +3.3%, GRPN +4.9% were among other notable outperformers.
Banks broadly stronger:
• After selling off Tuesday, banks recovered over the remainder of the week to post solid gains with the BKX +1.2% as money centers and regionals closed broadly higher. The groups sold off Tuesday seemingly on comments from Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, who told Congress that the regulator intends to impose a capital surcharge that will require the biggest US banks to maintain larger capital requirements to protect against potential losses. However, concerns later eased, perhaps helped by commentary at the Barclays Global Financials Conference that generally matched Q2 earnings call takeaways. BAC +4.8% was the standout performer, aided by an upgrade at Goldman Sachs, with the firm citing better-than-expected long-term earnings power among the reasons for optimism.
Utilities, telecom underperform:
• The rate sensitive telecom and utilities sectors were the weakest performers after energy. CTL (4.7%) and VZ (3.1%) lagged in telecom, however S +18.9% was a standout performer, helped by positive sell-side commentary and a Cowen upgrade, along with a new iPhone 6 rate plan. Materials lagged, with the precious metals group coming under notable pressure as gold and silver prices extended recent declines. AU (14.6%) and SSRI (7.2%) were among the weakest names. Hospitals were a bright spot for healthcare, reversing from last week's selloff, with CYH +8.1%, THC +6.6%, UHS +3.9%, HCA +3.4% also likely helped after each had its target raised by Goldman Sachs.
We opened above the downward trendline from previous weeks. 4070 is the MM from the Feb TR, we opened against that resistance and was unable to get above. Large move down in the first hour, largest hour bar in the last few weeks.
AWN Low is 4049.50 I believe that gets tested this week, struggle will be at the AWN low. Bears need to keep it below to continue to build selling pressure. I don't think they will get it. We may have some more room below, but I believe we are getting the break down out of the Sept TR that I was expecting. I would also expect some kind of rally over the coming week (FOMC is an excellent catalyst) to at least test the highs.
On the daily, we closed below bull TL, tested the MM at 4070 and was rejected. 3979 is next SMA below, if this is setting up like late July we could get a test of that. If so I believe when the next TL comes into play it could be a force to cause it to pop. (I don't know how soon or how long it will take to happen.) This week is large data drops and news events and I believe will be a week to remember.
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We have seen a failed breakdown of last weeks TR. we broke down yesterday and now have rallied back into the range. I believe that the size of this range will continue to expand over the coming days and weeks.
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