Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
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Let us remember, you can find patterns in anything if you look for them. For example, you can create completely random price data and find all the traditional 'patterns' used in technical analysis within it.
But what about if you use a trendline and you see you are not alone to react when price bounces off of it when price returns there, does it mean it is a mirage? If price find some resistance along this trendline is it just pure coincidence?
If a trader uses trendlines to map supply and demand on a chart to determine where one group (buyers/sellers) is more likely to manifest their presence then are you implying this is nonsense?
Take volume or TPO profile, i use them to map supply/demand. They form a channel while price is moving, sometimes price will react to a previous static VPOC or a previous value area low/high. As you know, these points can be represented by a line. If i use them to form an opinion about the current price valuation does it mean i am using a mirage to form an opinion? If not then what's the difference between a user who can read a chart with trendlines and another user who can read a volume profile chart?
If charts were created by random computers then i would agree with you, pattern recognition techniques would not help a trader much but since a chart is a representation of human expectations then it's my contention supply/demand can be determined using various techniques whether it be VWAP, Market Profile or trendlines.
By ridiculing other approaches you're not going to foster participation.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
Posts: 49,785 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,314 given,
97,581
received
You specifically asked me to comment on your chart, by name/mention. Otherwise I wouldn't be in this thread sharing my views.
I trust everyone can be reasonable and open to a useful discussion. If not then why invite me to comment, you had to know I wasn't going to agree with a pitchfork analysis.
I think the diffrence is profile shows exactly what is going on in the market. Vah/val are representations of projected LVN around the current poc. This projection is usually one sigma. Trend lines/channels are similar in a way because you are making projections on where price may bounce. The issue is price usually does not bounce of a strict lvl but off areas. Once you understand the flagging that the mark making hfts create when scaling in you will realize lvls are not as effective as areas. So if you use trend line or profile it's prob. Better to use a channel with a atr as a buffer or with a profile use somthing like the LVN of the prev distribution. But with pith forks murry math lines fib lvls . These lvls are not areas and don't leave room for error, and the projections of these lvls are math drivin so it won't show what is actually happening in the mrk. Just my opinion from a beginner
Ps I think vwap and profile is better than trend channels due to adaptability and less room for user error
I think users would like more than the random line theory thrown at their face. But maybe a opinion On some other potential approaches to the market with a disclaimer of course.
Pretty sweet, really. Apart from the general conforming of price to the levels, I mentioned 4083 above as a particular level of interest. It may be a little hard to see both the red and the orange lines at that price level because its actually a perfect confluence of two different fibs, so its pretty significant.
Interestingly, there has been a confluence at 4083 on the daily fibs {not shown} beginning with the Monday-Tuesday session. I would not be suprised to see a bounce here or at least some sideways ranging.
AWN low inside the PP boxes can be good support. Twice this week we tested and then rallied off of it. We have rallied to the AWN high, expect some resistance there. Tomorrow it could be support higher, or it could force us to trade back into the range.
On the month we are in a rally mode, we have traded above the AMN high for the last two weeks. Looking for Last Month's high as a potential target.
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Aye aye, a little too rippy there eod as buy stops kicked in and pushed NQ above the wedge that traded from 14:00 on...25.50 above 20 ema is nosebleed. Like to take it short to then catch a buy off this lower trendline
I was watching the NQ and could see via an indicator I use that "they" were putting the brakes on the Short Squeeze the last 40 mins or so of the trading day. The big boys already know what the earnings report are going to say, just like they know what the FED will say.
:
They kept the parking brake set while revving the engine until 1:00 pm PST closing time, and because most retail traders are not likely to hold a position past 1:00 pm, they exit their long or short position. That is when they release the brake and brutalize the remaining shorts that stayed in.
You need to have a firm grasp of market wave structure. You aren't going to see this on a minute chart.
You also need to be willing to hold past the close and place a bracketed order at the break out points, either up or down. It is always a risk to enter this type of trade and you need to be able to stomach a pretty large stop if you are wrong. In this case you would have needed a 15-20 pt stop on either side. That would go to even pretty quick, but ...you never know.
I noticed this old thread and thought it looked like one that could be dusted off and used again. Hopefully this isn't a gravedig. First up is a long time frame NDX chart to remind us all where we're at.
Next up is a 90 day 4 hour of NDX because I'm lazy and that way i don't have to redraw lines form the 20yr. I chose 4 hour simply because it's easy to see that price is out of the previous channel, in a tight range above the red line below the year open gap.
e hu
The hourly chart of NQ looks maye a little fishy (Note: in my experience, by the time something starts looking fishy to me, there's a good chance it's done being fishy) here with a lower high and broken neck line of sorts after falling out of the previous channel, but still holding above previous swing low at 4450.75. In my rookie view, if it doesn't head through the lower high at 4539.50 the trend is down and then the 4365-4374 area becomes the next swing low to watch
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Not that I can ever figure out what the market is going to do, but today it closed right where it would cause me maximum confusion. While technically a few ticks above 4441.50 level I had as a previous low, it's basically right at that level after an very nice dump (one that I got stopped out of by 1 point thankyouverymuchMr.Market).
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Turns out last night was a good long trade (for the record I was too skerd to take it) for those that took it. My guess would be that it's time to look below 4441.5.
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The market continues to do what a market does and make a mockery of me. Right when I was posting this morning and mentioning that long overnight would have been a good trade, the trade was to go short. I returned after that post to a big red candle. NQ did get below that 4441.50 mark and it would have been a good buy. Price now appears to be consolidating in a flag
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Saying that you believe it is going to do something is pointless. Why do you think that?
Looking back at yourself and saying you got it wrong doesn't do you any good unless you explain why you were thinking what you were thinking and then explain why you were wrong.
Also trade it. If you have an idea and see something, put a trade on. You will never learn from just watching the market. You must actively trade to actually gain experience.
Best of luck.
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Price gapped up into the year open gap and climbed. Today's price action even caught the attention of the talking heads. One of them has even pronounced this a bull market that has only just begun. The new downward sloping red line is the one connecting the tops in the summer and fall, I'm sure you've seen a hundred times.
Next up is a 30 minute of NQ. This one showing it climbing out of the flag, back into the upward channel and bouncing off the bottom of it during the overnight lows. The darler color is the overnight session.
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First up is NDX hitting my downtrend line from previous tops and not giving back much,
Next is a 30 minute of NQ that looks suspiciously toppish. /NQ is down .2% this morning and there was divergence in the RSI and most indicators I threw on the chart said sell, not buy, so maybe it's a buy. Still though it seems unpatriotic to fade the market on a Friday (kidding there) and OPEX week, buy looking at previous OPEX weeks, seems like a tough time to short.
I've noticed a decent amount of NQ traders, why don't we start this thread back up again? I'll start us off.
We are currently at all-time highs (or at least as far back as my data goes), how do you feel about that? Are you bullish? Do you think this is the beginning of a break-out / strong bull rally? Or are we
Anybody long right now? Long-term wise it seems like a good thing to be long, but I'm also a new trader so I don't know much
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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So these last 2 days have been slow volume and range wise. I'm sure the long-term players got into the market at ~4650 after we had the panic Friday. And for the ones that didn't probably did so after the fed announcement on Wednesday.
With very little coming up news-wise until Q3 corporate earnings and the GE, I was wondering the following:
At what price point do you think we will see these bigger players step back into the NQ?
Do you think the general election debates will have a big impact on the NQ or overall market sentiment? I know they'll have an impact but will it be a hiccup or some pneumonia?
What other markets are you watching to see if those players will exit their respected markets and join the NQ train?
What else are you paying attention to? Some technical stuff perhaps?
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
I think there should be some downward follow through tomorrow morning. How much is any ones guess.
Possible, but the last run up on the NQ looked like big players goosing FaceBook higher. Not really buyers stepping in. Everything is extended and the Easter Bunny (FED) is quiet for some time.
ES is in resistance and is not moving higher like the NQ. At this point it may be the true indicator of market strength or weakness.
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Good call on this one, markets dropped quite a bit overnight and some of the morning as well. The drop might not be over either. What made you think that markets were going to drop this morning?
I've been paying attention to the ES and the YM as well. Neither of them managed to get back into the high territory of early September after the big sell-off Sept 9. The NQ did get back in there and broke new all-time highs in intraday, day close, and week close. But from what I've experienced so far (very little), it seems that eventually all the 3 indices end up being very close in how they move, so either the ES and YM would go up significantly or the NQ would drop significantly. With no oil cuts yet and talks about limiting commodity trading, and now the whole deutsche bank thing, that doesn't sound very likely.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
It had hit all of the intermediate targets I had and was primed for a pull back.
The market has been on a huge rally since 6/27. It's out of gas for real buying as far as I am concerned. The fed BS and the FB/Apple rally were just short term manipulations for options pricing. Again, my opinion.
With the debate happening tonight they need it down for the fake rally overnight or in the morning to roll it over in a bigger way. My thinking is the big boys want even bigger ATH's at the end of the year. To get there you need selling now and fear so they can get in cheaper. They have exited a majority of their positions and want to re-enter at a better price. Not to mention make some money on the way down.
The debate may provide some of the fuel to get this started. No matter who is perceived to have "won", it is the excuse to to pull the rug out from under the record long positions.
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This is the most frustrating market in the NQ I can remember. A complete algo driven mess. This move up from the over night is a complete false break up to try to break the last high. Zero support and no it jumps up like this. Complete WTF moment.
It's starting to look like it will be a blow off top right at the election. This is scorched earth trading. Take it right to the limits then kill it off in a blaze of glory.
I'm not familiar with what a false break is but I thought that the ON session respected the support zone from yesterday.
The ~4815 area was strong support after the big bear move down yesterday on DB's news.
The current move up seems to be a continuation from that.
However I do agree that sometimes I feel as if the NQ is just a shadow of the ES. I expected that certain investors would switch over from ES to NQ if non-NQ industries such as financials and resources were doing bad, but it seems that the NQ just mirrors the movement of the ES when those industries are suffering, even if the top quartile of the NQ is all green (it slowly turns red).
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
In retrospect, the double bottom did prove to be support and a rejection of the short. But at this point I can't help but feel like the NQ is paper thin and moving on "fake" news and without any real structure. Doesn't mean it can't keep on going into a blow off top.
If you look at the Russell and the ES they are in a completely different pattern compared to the NQ.
False Break ( to me ) taking out a previous high without good ABC movement and support. Your basic short squeeze / false break out.
I'm very new at this but with no hike this month + not much political uncertainty (market is assuming HRC will win in November) + Strong performance from some of the top NQ companies (9/10 are positive this month), shouldn't this 'no news' be = good news in investor's minds?
If you are a Long term investor and you bought post-brexit (1) or after we had that break-down out of a 20+ day balance (2), what would be the reasons to exit the market right now?
A few things come to mind:
US Political uncertainty - looking at the electoral college Clinton has a better path to 270 than Trump, and if anything the Trump downfall after the debate hasn't been good for him (Lack of preparation, lies and excuses, Cuba scandal, and more)
EU banking fears - The whole DB thing might've been just panic (or at least it feels like it this second), but with more signs we could see players panicking
EU uncertainty - I won't go into detail of this because I don't know enough to discuss
5,000 area - Big question mark around this as I've never experienced hitting a 000 number, but would a number like this make people wonder 'wow we are high, 5x as high as the lowest point of the recession, can we continue going up? We are probably due for a huge correction aren't we?'
If I was a long-term investor and I got in during either of those entries, I wouldn't see a reason to think the market will break unless something big changes. Unless something major happened soon, why exit before the election? or even before December?
However, I'm pretty new so I'm interested in hearing some other opinions.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Don't get me wrong, I'm currently short on the market thinking wtf how are we still going higher.
On a smaller timeframe discussion. We are currently at weekly highs, we have rallied ~70 points today, above ATR, there has been a lot of volume after the 4870 area, but we are still creeping higher?
Why!!! lol
Are we honestly going to end this week with a bull trend day starting overnight from a panic support zone?
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
