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NQ-nalysis

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  #401 (permalink)
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I don't understand your statement. Are you trading this commentary you are posting?

I did traded intraday and booked. Only reason I am not giving details about entry, SL, Target as it should not disturb other fellow traders following their own strategy. I am following trendlines, Stochastics with Pivots and trading intraday on live account. Trading positinal in SIM bye following DEMA, MA crossovers.

If it is inapproriate please let me know I will not post them.

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I did traded intraday and booked. Only reason I am not giving details about entry, SL, Target as it should not disturb other fellow traders following their own strategy. I am following trendlines, Stochastics with Pivots and trading intraday on live account. Trading positinal in SIM bye following DEMA, MA crossovers.

If it is inapproriate please let me know I will not post them.

No feel free to post. I just like to know if others are actually trading what they are saying. Anytime I post analysis I try and mention whether or not I am trading it. To me commentary without having skin in the game is useless. But I have and do post my overall ideas here.

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  #403 (permalink)
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No feel free to post. I just like to know if others are actually trading what they are saying. Anytime I post analysis I try and mention whether or not I am trading it. To me commentary without having skin in the game is useless. But I have and do post my overall ideas here.

I have yet to create my own journal and may finish by weekend and start posting analysis and probability of trades. I only watch NQ100 since thats the only instruments I have been following since I moved to US. This thread appeared a valid to share about my views.

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Still long, added second car at 4226.50. Will scalp the second car off by the close and hold the one from 4201 until tomorrow.

EDIT: Scalp off at 34.25.

EDIT2: last car off at 22. ECB just kicked me in the nuts...

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EDIT: Shorted 4212 after failed to break Y-Close. VAL is acting as support now. Playing this short close to the vest.

EDIT: Short off at 4210. $40 wasn't worth the trade. Out flat for the day...

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  #406 (permalink)
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I will do Sim trade on this. with 10 points risk on either side.

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  #407 (permalink)
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I will do Sim trade on this. with 10 points risk on either side.

It worked beatifully. But could not risk today in Real trade..

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I will only enter if it falls within my 2% risk.

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  #409 (permalink)
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I will only enter if it falls within my 2% risk.

My limit order didn't fill. But my analysis worked.

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  #410 (permalink)
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New channel Lets see.. Probably trade in Sim

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Watching now..

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Watching now..

I wouldn't be selling yet...

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Watching now..

I am done for today. Happy Friday. Will Come with a fresh mind on Monday. Meanwhile will create my journal and my trades so far.

Thank you Turner for creating this thread and to Big Mike for this forum.

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Watching now..


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I wouldn't be selling yet...

You had the right idea, just wrong risk.

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I am done for today. Happy Friday. Will Come with a fresh mind on Monday. Meanwhile will create my journal and my trades so far.

Thank you Turner for creating this thread and to Big Mike for this forum.

The correct risk, would have been above your trendline.

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The correct risk, would have been above your trendline.

Thats correct. I took risk that I could offer for today. Also, I didn't wanted to give profits of my weekly earnings and on last day. I am waiting for my profits to grow since I more intrested in positional trading following EMAs and trendlines.

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Thats correct. I took risk that I could offer for today. Also, I didn't wanted to give profits of my weekly earnings and on last day. I am waiting for my profits to grow since I more intrested in positional trading following EMAs and trendlines.

If you weren't willing to take the correct risk for the trade, then you shouldn't take the trade. Also P/L of the day, week, quarter, or year shouldn't affect your decisions or reasoning behind the next trade. Not saying that it doesn't or won't as we are all human. But we have to work away from worrying about the P/L. It is better to trade for process then profit. Because if you have the correct process you will be profitable over time. Which is what really matters in the end.

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  #418 (permalink)
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If you weren't willing to take the correct risk for the trade, then you shouldn't take the trade. Also P/L of the day, week, quarter, or year shouldn't affect your decisions or reasoning behind the next trade. Not saying that it doesn't or won't as we are all human. But we have to work away from worrying about the P/L. It is better to trade for process then profit. Because if you have the correct process you will be profitable over time. Which is what really matters in the end.

Thank you for suggestion. I will definately keep in mind that it should not affect my trading decision.

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Thank you for suggestion. I will definately keep in mind that it should not affect my trading decision.

We all go through different stages. Even professional and successful traders still face the same issues that we do. They have just developed a way to deal with it, and process information correctly to help them manage their trades better.

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I am waiting to see today's close. Doji's or small down days have lead to reversals back into the range.



Tested the 20 EMA on the daily chart, we hit the upper TL on my hourly.



Lows of yesterday and today are above the 5 SMA an near the top of the channel.

My overall bullishness is turning neutral. Today's close will determine my outlook for next week. I will most likely close my current trade at the EOD today. Current stop is 4212 below Y-Low. I believe if that is taken out then my up idea is in trouble.

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1. 21/24 EMAs crossover in 30 mins Charts.
2. Market just above 5 Daily EMA.
3. Intraday Trendlines channel view.

Trend Channel worked good. Lets see on Monday..

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Not traded but for learning purpose posted charts.

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Trend Channel worked good. Lets see on Monday..

Close eyes on 21/34 EMAs crossover on 30 mins NQ chart. This will decide short term trading levels.

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Taken SIM trades as per trendlines in SPOT and Futures with Day High SL.

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Taken SIM trades as per trendlines in SPOT and Futures with Day High SL.

1 lot exited with 15 points. hold 1 lot to SL to cost.

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  #426 (permalink)
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Taken SIM trades as per trendlines in SPOT and Futures with Day High SL.

Trail SL hit. no position in SIM.

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NQ100 near trendline resistance. Posting chart for learning purpose only.

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Can it be a flag pattern ? Consecutive close above the channel can confirm that. I will watch it since positional trading in not fit to my fund/risk management.

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Can it be a flag pattern ? Consecutive close above the channel can confirm that. I will watch it since positional trading in not fit to my fund/risk management.

Any examples of what would trigger the failure of such pattern?

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Flag Pole is of ~650 points and price already broke out 100 points. Ideal entry would have been breakout of the channel with SL one can risk. The pattern will fail if the prices are back within the channel which will invalidate the pattern. I am a beginner, I posted this one just for learning purpose and observation.

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I see some traders are exclusively trading NQ and some exclusively trading ES.
This is not a wise way of trading .
The 4 index emini: NQ,ES,YM and TF are not equal.
There is always a strongest one and a weakest on the same day.
For example, On Friday NQ was the strongest and YM was the weakest.
So if you go long on Friday you long NQ, and you go short you short YM.
This way you catch right move you profit more, and you catch wrong move you lose less.

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I see some traders are exclusively trading NQ and some exclusively trading ES.
This is not a wise way of trading .
The 4 index emini: NQ,ES,YM and TF are not equal.
There is always a strongest one and a weakest on the same day.
For example, On Friday NQ was the strongest and YM was the weakest.
So if you go long on Friday you long NQ, and you go short you short YM.
This way you catch right move you profit more, and you catch wrong move you lose less.

That's probably right. The problem is that it's difficult to split your attention between different things, in real time when they are changing rapidly. Also, the different markets behave differently, as you mentioned, and once you are used to one, it may be difficult to quickly switch to another.

That's why many people will stick mainly to one, even though they may miss an opportunity by doing so. You could also lose opportunities by trying to be aware of all of them at once. Sometimes a compromise for the sake of practicality is necessary.

Bob.

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That's probably right. The problem is that it's difficult to split your attention between different things, in real time when they are changing rapidly. Also, the different markets behave differently, as you mentioned, and once you are used to one, it may be difficult to quickly switch to another.

That's why many people will stick mainly to one, even though they may miss an opportunity by doing so. You could also lose opportunities by trying to be aware of all of them at once. Sometimes a compromise for the sake of practicality is necessary.

Bob.

It is not difficult.
You can decide it in a few seconds.
One point NDX=3.7points DOW
So you can look at how much NDX and DOW go up or go down to decide which one is ahead.
Another way is to look at their intraday charts,if one breaks new high and the other does not, you know which one lag.

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wmwmw View Post
I see some traders are exclusively trading NQ and some exclusively trading ES.
This is not a wise way of trading .
The 4 index emini: NQ,ES,YM and TF are not equal.
There is always a strongest one and a weakest on the same day.
For example, On Friday NQ was the strongest and YM was the weakest.
So if you go long on Friday you long NQ, and you go short you short YM.
This way you catch right move you profit more, and you catch wrong move you lose less.

Could you tell me, right now, which index is going to exhibit the greatest relative strength/weakness on Tuesday?

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding, but if not, your advice is incredibly biased by hindsight.

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wmwmw View Post
It is not difficult.
You can decide it in a few seconds.
One point NDX=3.7points DOW
So you can look at how much NDX and DOW go up or go down to decide which one is ahead.
Another way is to look at their intraday charts,if one breaks new high and the other does not, you know which one lag.

"It it not difficult."

In that case, by all means pursue the strategy that you think is the best. You may be completely right. However, not everyone who thinks otherwise is necessarily wrong. It takes many viewpoints to make a market. Some even know how many NQ points correspond to how many YM points, and can even read the highs and lows of charts.

I am not surprised about the relative point values of the indices, nor about which have new highs or which don't, but I am surprised to read that this is supposed to be news to me. The relationships between different markets can be important, and the significance of those relationships is always a matter of interpretation, including whether a relationship will continue or not. But that is a matter of interpretation of the future meaning of a present fact, not of whether someone can read a chart or not.

It remains that some people will want to specialize in one instrument or another, and they may, or may not, want to use the relationship that it has to another instrument in their trading decisions. Whatever works, for each trader, is what is right for them.

Anyway, that's what I think about it. Other people can think as they like, and I'll learn from them, or not, depending on what I see in their views at the time.

Good luck with the markets, as you see them.

Bob.

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It is not difficult.
You can decide it in a few seconds.
One point NDX=3.7points DOW
So you can look at how much NDX and DOW go up or go down to decide which one is ahead.
Another way is to look at their intraday charts,if one breaks new high and the other does not, you know which one lag.

Would you mind posting the cash trades you took that execute this strategy, say over the past two weeks?

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Could you tell me, right now, which index is going to exhibit the greatest relative strength/weakness on Tuesday?

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding, but if not, your advice is incredibly biased by hindsight.

Look at all four eimini quotes right now.
YM is down 14.35 points compared with fair value.
NQ is down 1.78.
SPX is down 2.84.
TF is up 0.77.
(go to cnbc.com Pre-Market Data for emini quotes, I am not allowed to post the link for emini quotes)

So the signal is telling us NQ will be stronger than YM and TF will be the strongest one on Tuesday.
From my experience, the quotes at this time before market are usually about 70-80% chance right prediction for Tuesday.
After market open 15-30 minutes, if they still hold this relationship, then the relationship will be 90+% chance valid for the whole Tuesday.
On the other hand, if you set up daily charts of four indices, you will be able to see NDX has been the strongest one since last Tuesday and other 3 indices has been weaker. So the chance is NQ will still be stronger and TF has a chance to become stronger on Tuesday. I will long NQ (if I am going to long)and will pay attention to TF on Tuesday.
Usually the gap between each index will become wider as the day going,for example,on Friday if you long YM at 10:00 am and hold position to close you would be about even and if you long NQ at 10:00 am you would win 20 points at close.

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Would you mind posting the cash trades you took that execute this strategy, say over the past two weeks?

Sent from my phone

All my trades were based on this strategy for many years and I guess posting my signals for the coming days will be more convincing.
I pay close attention to the relationship between index.
From 1/27/15 to 2/9/15, during the 10 days period, DOW is the indices leader. I mean whichever the day Dow was stronger than NQ, the day would be closed up. Whichever the day DOW was weaker than NQ, the day will be closed down. So my trades during this period was just following YM and if YM stronger I long YM and YM weaker I short YM on the day. It was 100% correct during the 10 days.
Since 2/10/15, NDX took the leader and I switch to NQ.

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In general, you should choose a indices leader to trade, just like YM during the 10 days(the period I mentioned above).
Because the indices leader not only hint on market direction, it also offer better risk-reward.
Say if indices leader's intraday chart shows it would go up in the next 1-2 hours, but other indices chart show otherwise, the true market direction would go the indices leader's way.
If ES intraday chart suggests market will go down later, while indices leader's chart say otherwise, there is great chance that your ES chart pattern will be broken and it will be bought up by indices leader.

For recent years, most time NDX is indices leader.
So I think trading NQ is better than trading ES if you want to choose one index to trade exclusively.

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For a beginner like me, it is always suggested to concentrate on one thing first. This is will help one to concentrate and trade accordingly with descipline and patience. When your account is grown, continuing the current efforts you can check more instruments.

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wmwwmw

NQ futures breached previous daily high while ES still trading inside previous day's range. Based on current information, NQ is stronger than ES. So you would be trading bullish signals on NQ and bearish signals on ES? Is that is how you are using this information?

thanks

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wmwwmw

NQ futures breached previous daily high while ES still trading inside previous day's range. Based on current information, NQ is stronger than ES. So you would be trading bullish signals on NQ and bearish signals on ES? Is that is how you are using this information?

thanks


Basically you are right but I will add some notes:
1. If I short I will short YM, since YM is the weakest .
2.Also TF looks strongest, I will be cautious on trading TF .Usually I need one day TF close strong to confirm it has become a strong index.
3. I said "if I short". But in reality I will never short during a strong up trend like current bull market.
4. Choosing a right index will help you with better risk-reward, but to profit you still need a lot of more works to do.

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RUT is up 2 point right now. It is the strongest index today,along with DOW and SPX to turn stronger.
I am long TF now and possibly hold into tomorrow.

From intraday chart, RUT kept breaking intraday high and brought DOW and SPX trending higher with it, with NDX stay flat.
So longing TF would be a better choice than NQ now from risk-reward point.

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RUT is up 2 point right now. It is the strongest index today,along with DOW and SPX to turn stronger.
I am long TF now and possibly hold into tomorrow.

From intraday chart, RUT kept breaking intraday high and brought DOW and SPX trending higher with it, with NDX stay flat.
So longing TF would be a better choice than NQ now from risk-reward point.

That's great. Please start your own thread where you can document and discuss your ideas.

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Yesterday and today is a range.



Pascal buy sig fired last week.



Potential BO-Pullback Buy on the daily.

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Are we approaching the ultimate double top?



What does a failed double top look like? The answer is a bull trend.

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Are we approaching the ultimate double top?



What does a failed double top look like? The answer is a bull trend.

LOL. Ultimate optimism.

But I do like it.

Bob.

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I am a newbie and learning trendlines/chart patterns. I did a analysis of NQ100 futures for coming days/weeks/months. Please refer to the screenshot. This is only for learning and observation purpose.

Please disregard, If I posted chart with wrong view and it doesn't make any sense.

Like a student, I will take everyone suggestion/guidance.

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Both indices approaching major Fib resistance levels on the Monthly:




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Here is a comparison of the top 10 in 2000 and 2015.

What I find most interesting is that MCI Worldcom had the lowest PE in 2000 and they are the only company in that list that no longer exist.



source is Barrons.

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As far as the daily goes we appear to have reached the upper extreme of the channel (Red) the green channel marks the drop out and breakout that put us in an oversold and overbought condition. Where we go from here I cant say but one can draw their own conclusions from the chart.

Gozilla.

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Watch for price action in morning. the price already closed below 21/34 (30 mins) EMAs. Referring to hourly chart, there is good support and Expanding pattern too. Not sure if my view is good or bad. But it will keep me on track on learning path.

I welcome senior traders suggestion/comments.

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Watch for price action in morning. the price already closed below 21/34 (30 mins) EMAs. Referring to hourly chart, there is good support and Expanding pattern too. Not sure if my view is good or bad. But it will keep me on track on learning path.

I welcome senior traders suggestion/comments.

@chipps1983 This is just my 2 cents and since you were asking for suggestions, I will offer some, I am by no means a senior trader or expert so it is up to you to take what you will from what I will suggest next.

I have noticed from your last couple of charts that it seems you are trying to make the lines fit the price, lines should only be used as a guide and the behaviour at these points of interest is what you would or should be trading.

Anyway, back to the lines, this is just a critique there is nothing to say I am right in this, I am sure others will correct if I am wrong. The chart you posted, I am not so sure about the lower trendline you have drawn in, the upper one is fine, it has multiple points of contact and is "anchored" due to that, the lower line, however does nothing for 3 weeks. I can understand why you have it where it is, but as price trends upwards I think it is a mistake to ignore the swing low between your 2 points of contact, this swing low would give you your lower extreme in the trending range.

Its up to you what you choose as your anchor side but as price is trending up, I would personally anchor it on the low end and in a downtrend anchor it from the topside, This is partly down to experience of watching price run away from the line but eventually returning to it sooner or later.

Whatever side you choose to anchor to, price has broken or is in the process of breaking trend, this together within the context of the daily being at its upper extreme posted 2 up is looking bearish, which from my read this last couple of weeks means we are heading to record highs.

A picture paints a thousand words, the solid lines are the anchor lines and the dashed lines are the opposing extremes taking in the movement between the anchor points.

Hope it helps in some way.

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@Gozilla, thank you for your comments and advice. I feel no offended but delighted to know that I am not doing it correctly. It is always helpful for a newbie to show him a right path.

I appreciate for your response.

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wmwmw View Post
All my trades were based on this strategy for many years and I guess posting my signals for the coming days will be more convincing.
I pay close attention to the relationship between index.
From 1/27/15 to 2/9/15, during the 10 days period, DOW is the indices leader. I mean whichever the day Dow was stronger than NQ, the day would be closed up. Whichever the day DOW was weaker than NQ, the day will be closed down. So my trades during this period was just following YM and if YM stronger I long YM and YM weaker I short YM on the day. It was 100% correct during the 10 days.
Since 2/10/15, NDX took the leader and I switch to NQ.

Wouldn't you be better off establishing the leading index from a longer time frame perspective( According to my rotation chart on the lower left that would be the NQ). Then buying that index(NQ), when it's been lagging behind the YM/ES on an intra day time frame( like it is now on the 60min chart on the lower right), based on the premise that the longer time frame is now looking to buy value, therefore a rotation back towards the leading index will occur. So rather than buying the index that's been the strongest/ leading that day, you wold buy the index that's the weakest/ lagging relative to it's longer time frame perspective.


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long NQ targeting 60

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long NQ targeting 60

I concur looking for 4066.


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AWN high is 4465, todays ADR is 4465, my goal for today.



Above the 5 SMA, so it is holding support even though we have traded through it, they are wicks and the daily opens and closes have been above it.


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long NQ targeting 60

Got 60, let's see if 65/66 is in order.

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reloading L47.75 target tomorrow pre-open

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out preopen 57.50 (early)

sell stop 66.50 if it gets there

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short 55, and out

long 61
long 06
short zb 161/13

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4476.50 AWN high is my current target. Price is skirting the RTH/ETH +2 SD band.

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4476.50 AWN high is my current target. Price is skirting the RTH/ETH +2 SD band.

thanks for posting that. i was aiming for 74, gives me confidence to move it a bit further out.

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thanks for posting that. i was aiming for 74, gives me confidence to move it a bit further out.

I am long 56, looking for 86 (ADN high) for the day. I expect that 76 area to give some resistance. Could see a pull back to +1 SD band / VWAP.

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I am long 56, looking for 86 (ADN high) for the day. I expect that 76 area to give some resistance. Could see a pull back to +1 SD band / VWAP.

i took half out at 74ish. holding the other half until 1030ish or so, i'll plan to exit before european close if it looks like we're going to reverse down a bit, and reload in the afternoon.

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i took half out at 74ish. holding the other half until 1030ish or so, i'll plan to exit before european close if it looks like we're going to reverse down a bit, and reload in the afternoon.

I've locked the last car at 66.

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AWN so far has been holding price steady, good break of it could see ADR high tested.





Profit taking limit set at ADR high. I have since tightened stop to 4465.25 below VWAP. Price is in a TR and I believe if we test the VWAP again we may see more test below. I don't really see that happening.

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i'm out here. i'll be back in the afternoon to see what's up. wish i had held on to my short bonds though! i don't usually trade bonds, so took just a bit and ran.

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you can fit an ocean in that bowl

have some buy limits at 65 to 60

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  #474 (permalink)
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Long NQ's 4456.xx

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Long NQ's 4456.xx

We are going down ?
Long because of S1 ?



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  #476 (permalink)
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We just needed to fill yesterdays ES morning gap

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Stopped Out

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  #479 (permalink)
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No longs for me until break of upper channel line

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well, i got mixed up yesterday and today. was looking for ES98 yesterday, but had to reverse on the strong up day. today, looking for continuation, but went down to ES97s. End up getting out at NQ42 as I couldn't take the pain anymore. but now back in to ES long, short bonds.

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Good to see some activity in the NQ thread. Hope y'all did better then I did, lost $1K this morning. Licking my wounds over lunch and take the rest of the day off.

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Good to see some activity in the NQ thread. Hope y'all did better then I did, lost $1K this morning. Licking my wounds over lunch and take the rest of the day off.

Some days you lose some days you win.

Today it was nice down trend.
I "made" in TST combine +182 $

I am new to NQ.
Do you use pivot points ?
It seems NQ like to move between to pivot points and yesterdays high and low ?


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flat
can't figure it out. made back about 1/3rd of losses with short bonds.

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Some days you lose some days you win.

Today it was nice down trend.
I "made" in TST combine +182 $

I am new to NQ.
Do you use pivot points ?
It seems NQ like to move between to pivot points and yesterdays high and low ?


All I can say is read this:

I do use pivots but they are not vital to my trading. I just have them on the charts, the PP is the most of what I use. I have some ideas / strategies based on whether the PP is above, inside, or below the ADN boxes. But outside of that I rarely watch the other levels.

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Seems to be difficult to break through vwap. so decided to short.




what i learned today is I have to follow the price action even when it is counterintuitive to my bias. if I don't want to follow the price action, then I have to stay out all together.

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All I can say is read this:

I do use pivots but they are not vital to my trading. I just have them on the charts, the PP is the most of what I use. I have some ideas / strategies based on whether the PP is above, inside, or below the ADN boxes. But outside of that I rarely watch the other levels.

You are saying that pivot points are random lines ?
Also yesterdays high low is random lines ?

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You are saying that pivot points are random lines ?
Also yesterdays high low is random lines ?

Everything is random even price itself.

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Everything is random even price itself.

If everything is random how do you enter trades ?

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If everything is random how do you enter trades ?

Because I have placed importance on certain levels and trade them. Just because I have placed importance on those said levels doesn't mean that they aren't any less random.

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Everything is random even price itself.

If everything was random, you could not make money considering the house edge. You would be in the same position of a roulette player faced with two zeros. You would always be at a disadvantage. Supply and demand would mean nothing.

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If everything was random, you could not make money considering the house edge. You would be in the same position of a roulette player faced with two zeros. You would always be at a disadvantage. Supply and demand would mean nothing.



It was a joke...

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covered shorts. went long 1 tranche avg 45
also 1 tranche long bonds 58/25

these are short term trades. seeing if I can get a few points on each with upcoming data spike.

edit: out of both. no spike.

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AWN low at 4425.



AMN low at 4407.50. Pascal channel bottom at 4413.



POC shifts are pushing price down, clear trend signals. Two trades, holding runners at b/e has caused me to be taken out. But it is what it is and I am done for today.

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short 1 tranche into overnight.

been a sucky day..missed waterfall at the open, then when i got in front of the screens, kept trying to short the bounce and getting out. still, i'm bearish based on the charts.

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sold another tranche at 52
....annnnd out
....looks like my weak ass hand got shaken out before it went back down. going to stay out for a little while. bonds seem to be easier to trade -> sell any spike.

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