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NQ-nalysis

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  #301 (permalink)
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We have fallen and tested the AWN Low. We have also broken the TL from the 7th. Range at the open. Last two days looked like a triangle that is now breaking down. 1% correction is in the 4184 area.



Daily we traded inside the AMN High box and have now fallen out. 5 DMA on the Pascal channel is an important area, we have closed every day above that on the rally up.

I believe we may have had the low of the day put in now. Will have to wait and see.

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We have fallen and tested the AWN Low. We have also broken the TL from the 7th. Range at the open. Last two days looked like a triangle that is now breaking down. 1% correction is in the 4184 area.

I believe we may have had the low of the day put in now. Will have to wait and see.

Ugh the test of that AWN low was the setup I was looking for today! Missed that entry, damn day job

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Per @srgtroy

MrTopStep

In line with my analysis I am working on now.

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Commentary in video.

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Today we rallied off the TL from the 7th. Our MM of the triangle FBO is 4255, the Fib of the FBO is 4250. We have found resistance at 4236 or the 76.4% fib extension. I am by no way Mr Fib like @srgtroy. But a tool is a tool even if it is used by a fool.



Once again the 5 SMA of Pascal's Channel has survived. We have broken out of the AMN High that was acting as resistance the last few days.

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Inching up to test the high of the day. Bulls looking for a breakout in afternoon session and measured move up (pretty good sized TR midday so it'd be a decent sized move).

Bears looking for top of trading range to be here and a sellof back down to around 4227~ area.

Either way I'm looking to pick up a couple if the move is significant enough.

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No real commentary, everything I have stated before still stands. Will remeasure the new 1% and 2% correction numbers tomorrow.

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Just got connected to rithmic via TST for the first time today. I slept in, so it appears to have been a good day (due to data issues) to do so.



5 MIN chart looks like a Lower Low MTR, we have the TL break a test of the low with a two bar bull reversal signal at the ADR low. Perfect buy signal.



Hourly we almost got our 4250, high was 4248.75. Big topping signal on the hourly. Today we broke the TL again, we have found support of the W-DP and VPOC for the week. This is actually kind of good as it allow us to fill in some LVNs and find new legs. This move down also closed the Apex of the Triangle completing the pattern. Since it is dead, I will be removing the fibs and MM line.

The Red line is a 2% correction from the high. Again just there for perspective.



On the RTH daily, we closed yesterday above the 5 SMA of the Pascal Channel. Today we pierced it, but now appear to be trying to stay above it.

FOMC mins release within the next hour. I will be sitting idle until after that.

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  #309 (permalink)
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Thanks for posting these. I follow with regularity. Btw, what is TST?


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Just got connected to rithmic via TST for the first time today. I slept in, so it appears to have been a good day (due to data issues) to do so.



5 MIN chart looks like a Lower Low MTR, we have the TL break a test of the low with a two bar bull reversal signal at the ADR low. Perfect buy signal.



Hourly we almost got our 4250, high was 4248.75. Big topping signal on the hourly. Today we broke the TL again, we have found support of the W-DP and VPOC for the week. This is actually kind of good as it allow us to fill in some LVNs and find new legs. This move down also closed the Apex of the Triangle completing the pattern. Since it is dead, I will be removing the fibs and MM line.

The Red line is a 2% correction from the high. Again just there for perspective.



On the RTH daily, we closed yesterday above the 5 SMA of the Pascal Channel. Today we pierced it, but now appear to be trying to stay above it.

FOMC mins release within the next hour. I will be sitting idle until after that.


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Thanks for posting these. I follow with regularity. Btw, what is TST?

Top Step Trader. I have been doing a combine with them to try and get funded. When I started the combine I had to start using their data in NT. Before I used CQG, now it is Rithmic. I've had issues with connecting in the past, but it appears there were wide spread issues with Rithmic.

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1% pullback on Globex, saw a small double bottom at the open on the 1000V and rally up since. Also from Weekly VAL to VAH and AWN low to AWN high.



Open below 5 SMA, today rallied to try and close above 5 SMA.

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FWIW...

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More Fib Fun. This one is goodness! On the Monthly:



I could show more but the Freemasons would take me out...

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Hourly we opened above the channel line, but had held support and are now up. Opening Gap close did not close, we are looking at a potential continuation gap. If not we could test the AWN high before we start to test the gap.



Daily we are clear of the 5 SMA. We are forming an inside day so far.

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Note to self: Last few weeks we have tested the AWN on Monday or Tuesday.



Above Friday's high will be an interesting area.

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US equity markets racked up their fifth consecutive week of gains and the S&P500 closed out Friday at another all-time high. Meanwhile the ECB launched its ABS program as Europe hovers at the very edge of full-blown deflation, Japan entered technical recession as it reported its second consecutive quarter of economic contraction, and the PBoC sprung a surprise rate cut on Friday to reassure China about its own economic problems. Preliminary November European PMI data was not encouraging, while the flash November HSBC China PMI data was just at the edge of contraction. Meanwhile in the US, October housing data was excellent, weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 2000, and the Philly Fed business outlook index rocketed to its highest reading since 1993. For the week, the DJIA rose 1%, the S&P500 added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%.

The unexpected contraction in Japan's preliminary Q3 GDP data (-1.6% y/y, -0.4% q/q) drove the Nikkei down 3% on Monday and gave the excuse Japanese PM Abe needed to delay the planned sales tax hike. Abe said he would call early elections to cement his "three arrows" economic reform program. The yen continues to be a one-way ride, with USD/JPY rising from 115.5 to 119, another seven-year low for the yen.

China's PBoC responded to recent soft economic data by cutting its benchmark lending and deposit rates by 40 basis points and 25 basis points, respectively. Meanwhile, the deposit rate ceiling was increased to 1.2x the benchmark deposit rate. In a note, Goldman Sachs said while the move itself is unlikely to have much of an impact on the economy, it sends a very clear signal that Beijing is willing to loosen its policy stance to support the economy and its willingness to use a broad spectrum of policy tools, much as it did earlier in 2014.

The minutes from the Oct 28-29th FOMC meeting showed that members are looking ahead to next year, continuing discussions about how exit strategy should be communicated. Only one member advocated dropping the key "considerable time" clause on forward guidance, but many said that it would be helpful if the Fed would soon clarify its approach to the pace of interest rate hikes. The committee observed that problems in overseas economies presented only a "limited" impact on the US recovery. The need to watch inflation was highlighted, and the notes observed that market-based measures of inflation had declined somewhat, but survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.

On Monday Draghi provided his quarterly update to the EU Parliament, and apart from familiar monetary policy talking points he offered heavy suggestions that sovereign bond buying by the ECB was still in the realm of possibility. Later in the week, Draghi recalled his landmark "whatever it takes" moment by saying the ECB will "do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible." Draghi said he fears low inflation could percolate through the economy and worsen the economic situation. His comments were taken as a strong signal that the ECB will forge ahead with quantitative easing in the months ahead. EUR/USD tanked late in the week, testing 1.2400 after the second Draghi speech and the ECB officially launched it ABS assets purchase program.

WTI crude pivoted around $75 this week before breaking out above $77 on Friday while Brent rose back above $81, aided by the implications of the PBoC rate cut. The OPEC guessing game of cut or no cut continued all week, with both analysts and OPEC nations seemingly split on the prospects for lowered quotas at the organization's meeting in Vienna on November 27th. Smaller non-Arab members led by Venezuela want to cut production and halt the slide in prices, while Persian Gulf members want steady policy. Non-OPEC member Russia is deeply distressed by lower oil prices and there was talk that the Russians might preemptively cut production to bolster prices.

Gold and EUR/CHF were whipped around by polls out ahead of Switzerland's "Save Our Gold" referendum, scheduled for November 30th. In recent weeks, polls had suggested more support in favor of the measure than against it, however two polls out this week suggested the no vote at well above 50%. Spot gold traded as low as $1,170 after the release of the new polls, but rebounded late in the week on the Chinese interest rate cuts. EUR/CHF had been testing 1.2010 all week, but backed off after the polls and talk of additional SNB intervention to defend the 1.2000 floor.

President Obama unveiled a sweeping executive order on immigration reform, including measures to let five million undocumented aliens remain in the country, to increase border security, and to provide more visas for high skilled foreign workers. The directive does not provide a pathway to citizenship. The Republicans widely condemned the move.

Retailers reported more third-quarter results this week, with nearly all citing a very highly competitive environment that is crimping margins. Big box retailer Target delivered an upside surprise, although y/y growth in profits and revenues was pretty anemic. BestBuy's margins, profits and revenue all saw healthy growth, while US comps were good and online comps were strong. Gap Inc met expectations but cut its FY guidance, while same store sales were negative. L Brands had a decent quarter with good comp sales gains.

Two gigantic deals took markets by storm on Monday. After a week of rumors, Actavis reached a deal to acquire Allergan for $219/share in cash and stock, in a total deal valued around $66B. Allergan's hostile suitor Valeant said it could not justify matching the price, giving up the fight. Baker Hughes agreed to be acquired by Halliburton in a cash-and-stock valued at around $34.6 billion.


Source: Weekly Wrap Up: US Data Rocks, Europe Buys Paper, China Scissors Rates

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UP all week, test of TL.



I think a test of 4312 (5 SMA on RTH daily) is in order.



Money flow from start of Globex. Currs up, indices down, GC and CL up. Looks bearish to me, but what do I know.

Not much commentary today, overall looking a little bearish at the moment, I believe we will get some back and fill of the Thanksgiving run up.

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Looks like my bearish idea worked today. Too bad I didn't get to play it.

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Final flag? Time will tell.


Two closes below the 5SMA, possible breakdown pullback sell forming on the day. I think if we break the M-Low at the moment we will see some follow through.

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One minute cumulative NQ tick (Tick-NQ) reading:



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On the hourly we broke the AWN low yesterday and tagged the AWR low during Globex and today. From there we rallied back to test the AWN low again and have closed around it.



Yesterday we got the first close below the 5 SMA of the Pascal channel since this last bull leg started. Today we open well below the envelopes and rallied back inside. We have also had a 2% pullback from the high, first one this last leg.

Overall neutral bias at the moment as I expect some range behavior until we get a good buy signal. (I realize that today could be the start of that signal).

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Down from yesterdays rally, forming a wedge at the weeks VAL.



The pascal isn't too bullish at the moment. It has failed to get back above the 5 SMA. I am still neutral as I expect range behavior. Looking to buy the lows and sell the highs.

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Even though the range is large, we have been ranging all week. Big downs and big ups. Overall still neutral until we get some bullish signal on the day. (Again if today forms a strong bull it could be a pullback buy, or a second entry long.)

EDIT: Just looked at the daily again and we had a range last week, this week was a breakdown of that range that has since been rejected twice.

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We have tested the AWR low twice this wee, both time have seen a large rally back to the weekly POC / VAH.



Daily was unable to close above the 5 SMA again. Major rejection of the highs and a nasty grave stone doji on the day. Bearish case is increasing on the daily.



Globex daily chart, we have flirted with the previous trendline. The top black line is another MM from the previous two black lines (Early 2014 TR). I am looking at the 50 SMA at 4120. I am also looking at the 4200 level, I almost expect that to be tested ON.

This could be a larger bear flag that is forming on the daily...

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Possible bear channel forming. 12/1 - 12/5 was a flag that formed and the week and broke on 12/8. Now we have formed an even larger flag on this week. Today's price action has formed a bear flag at the bottom of this TR and channel. This flag should break up. If it fails to break up it will break down for a measured move the size of the flag which would put it sub-4200. Either are possible.



Price failed to even get over the 5 SMA, we are getting close to getting a Pascal sell signal. I believe the high of the day will need to be near the lower envelope to fire the signal.

Overall I am still neutral, but the bear case is increasing every day. But obviously every selloff is bought. If that changes we could see a good move down. I think if we do go lower, we will do so until price becomes attractive enough that the BTFDers come in strong again.

Personally I believe this should happen next week and set up the Santa Claus rally.

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Buy the &^%$ing dip...



Friday sold off and closed well below the AWR low. We have also closed below the possible bear channel. We are now sub-4200. I expect this to be bought back into the channel during globex.



Friday was a break down of the week's range. I expect this to be bought back to test the 5 SMA. We are near 3% pullback from the highs.



I laugh at CNBC because they keep asking if this is the 10% correction. Like they forgot the correction we just had in October.

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The break down has been bought back into the channel, back to the 5SMA on the RTH daily chart.

EDIT: 5SMA and AWN high are around 4236. Seen strong resistance there.

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AWN high test and rejected, AWN low broken, channel broken. Testing Globex low now.



5SMA tested, M-CP tested, Breakdown of last weeks TR is holding at the moment. Sub-4200 now, I think we will form a triangle here over the next few days. Possible flag.

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Good chance low of day is in. Almost looking like a Higher Low MTR on the day, or some kind of double bottom here. That could be a good signal for the rest of the week to be up.

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Possible MTR forming on the day.


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EDIT: Flat on last car.

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Flag forming here at the bottom. MTR is still intact, but lack of follow through is concerning.



We are much lower then I thought we would be. 5SMA has been a heavy resistance over our head.



Just noting some SMA's below that could be support if we fall further.

Last post for the day. Everyone have a good afternoon.

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Volatility made a big comeback this week as the S&P500 index saw its first weekly loss in two months and the crude meltdown showed no signs of letting up. After two solid months of declining oil prices, the more than 10% drop in WTI futures this week, from $65 to below $58/barrel, finally triggered some significant risk-off behavior over deflation concerns. Most market watchers continue to tout the economic benefits of lower oil prices, but the speed of the decline has become unsettling. The jittery market largely ignored more strong US economic data, including excellent November retail sales and a 7-year high in the University of Michigan confidence reading, and gave more weight to ugly European industrial production and CPI data. In China, the November CPI and PPI inflation readings were concerning, with CPI hitting a five-year low, while additional economic and political reports cemented the expectation that China will reduce its official growth target for 2015. The DJIA had its worst week since late 2011, dropping 3.7%, while the S&P500 fell 3.5% and the Nasdaq lost 2.7%.

US Treasury yields have seen a notable contraction this week. On Friday, the 30-year UST ended around 2.74%, the lowest weekly close since the end of 2012. The yield on the 10-year UST fell as low as 2.09% (Recall that during the height of the Ebola angst in mid-October, the 10-year and 30-year yields briefly dipped as low as 1.86% and 2.67%, respectively). Spreads have narrowed as short-dated yields climbed in preparation for Fed tightening, further flattening out the yield curve.

The oil shock is rippling throughout global markets. Investors pulled nearly $1.9 billion from high-yield debt funds this week as lower oil prices exacerbated fears that smaller oil names could run into financing trouble. Energy debt currently accounts for around 16% of the US junk bond market. Russia continues to suffer from the oil swoon - the ruble lost another 10% against the dollar this week and not even another rate hike by the Russian Central Bank (the one-week auction rate was raised 11 bps to 10.5%) was able to arrest the slide. Meanwhile, major airlines should end up as a major beneficiary of lower oil prices. Industry group IATA forecasted 2015 airline industry profits of $25B v $19.9B y/y thanks to lower oil prices and higher worldwide GDP growth.

In Europe, deflation is looming. Core inflation rates, excluding the downward pressure of slumping energy prices, has gone negative in some euro zone peripheral nations. In the largest euro economies, France's headline November m/m CPI was -0.2% while Germany was at 0.0%. The data intensifies pressure on the ECB to launch its planned sovereign QE program as soon as possible, especially after this week's disappointing second TLTRO allotment, in which banks took only 130B, less than half the available credit on offer. The euro recovered from last week's 28-month lows, rising to 1.2500 from lows around 1.2250.

Comments from banking executives this week put some shade on the outlook for big US banks. At an investor conference, Bank of America's CEO warned that Q4 sales and trading revenue would be lower y/y and q/q. At the same conference, Citigroup's CEO warned that the bank would take a $3.5B charge in Q4 for legal investigations and would be marginally profitable after the charge. In addition, the Fed proposed a larger capital surcharge on the eight largest SIFI banks, and called out JP Morgan as the only large bank that might need to boost capital (by as much as $22B) to satisfy new capital rules.

On the merger front, Merck said it would buy Cubist Pharmaceuticals for $9.5 billion including debt, expanding its footprint in the market for drugs that target antibiotic resistant superbugs. The all-cash deal is valued around $102 per share, a 35% premium. Merck got a rude surprise just hours after announcing the deal: a US court curtailed all but one of the patents covering Cubist's top seller, Cubicin, which delivered most of the $1 billion in 2015 revenue Merck expected from the acquisition. Generics could launch as soon as mid-2016.

Japan Q3 final GDP confirmed a technical recession with a 2nd consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite expectations of a shallower contraction via an upward revision in the CapEx component, corporate spending actually fell by a steeper 0.4% margin than the 0.2% initially reported. Since the release of the GDP report, questions over the efficacy of Abenomics policies have become more prevalent going into this Sunday's parliamentary elections, even though the initial polls suggest the opposition remains too disorganized to muster a successful government challenge. Meanwhile, general risk-off market sentiment and more vocal public opposition to excessive Yen weakness has sent USD/JPY lower on a weekly basis for the first time in 8 weeks, with the pair falling over 3 big figures, below 119.

A broad range of November data out of China continued to point to a gradual slowdown coupled with policymakers' attempts to manage the soft landing and also acknowledge the changing nature of the economy. The headline trade surplus topped expectations, but imports fell for the first time in 3 months amid lower shipments of hard commodities and exports were also below expectations. The further decline in oil prices has also helped to bring CPI down to a 5-year low of 1.4% - below consensus. Industrial output fell to a 3-month low and also its 2nd worst level in 5 years, while fixed asset investment hit a 13-year low and property investment a 5 1/2 year low. Only November lending figures were notably better than expected at CNY852.7B vs CNY655B consensus amid speculation that policymakers are endorsing a higher lending ceiling of CNY10T in 2014, up from CNY8.9T in 2013. On Friday, a Chinese press report citing cabinet sources indicated the concluded Economic Work Council meeting will recommend lowering the official 2015 GDP target from the 7.5% rate in 2014 for the first time in 3 years.

Source: Weekly Wrap Up: Risk Off Resurfaces

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Globex down overnight. Got caught holding long, exited for lost this morning.

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Steeper bear channel forming now...



4079.75 is the AMR low, I believe that will be tagged.



100 SMA is 4072, MM is 4070, I believe this will be hit today or tomorrow. Look at mid Oct, I believe we will see the same kind of activity here as we did then.

Bear case keeps increasing, I believe once it is widely accepted it will reverse and those bears will be slaughtered in a new rally.

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via @srgtroy for reminding me of this. Major gap filled and other gaps below. Just something to keep an eye on.

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via @srgtroy for reminding me of this. Major gap filled and other gaps below. Just something to keep an eye on.

I'm looking for 4040-4050.

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Some fibs...


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Some fibs...

So why DO they call those unfib like numbers fibs?
I used to wonder but had discounted it and just accepted it.

"Napoleans severest comment on his beaten enemies - that they "saw to many things at once""- Hart
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So why DO they call those unfib like numbers fibs?
I used to wonder but had discounted it and just accepted it.

Fibonacci Retracement Definition | Investopedia

@bourgeois pig

DEFINITION OF 'FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT'
A term used in technical analysis that refers to areas of support (price stops going lower) or resistance (price stops going higher). The Fibonacci retracement is the potential retracement of a financial asset's original move in price. Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

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Fibonacci Retracement Definition | Investopedia

@bourgeois pig

DEFINITION OF 'FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT'
A term used in technical analysis that refers to areas of support (price stops going lower) or resistance (price stops going higher). The Fibonacci retracement is the potential retracement of a financial asset's original move in price. Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Watched the video. Liked it. but still don't understand how the those numbers are derived, knowing that fibs are 1,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and so forth.

I'm gonna go mess the arc! yessss... the arc.

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Watched the video. Liked it. but still don't understand how the those numbers are derived, knowing that fibs are 1,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and so forth.

I'm gonna go mess the arc! yessss... the arc.

I have no clue, all I know is it is called a Fib Retracement, so I call them Fibs. Which is what they are. They lie.

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I have no clue, all I know is it is called a Fib Retracement, so I call them Fibs. Which is what they are. They lie.

@bourgeois pig @tturner86

Please pick one of the numbers listed above, preferably one of the ones greater then 10, and I will show u.

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@bourgeois pig @tturner86

Please pick one of the numbers listed above, preferably one of the ones greater then 10, and I will show u.

21.

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https://files.meetup.com/1545595/Drunvalo%20Melchizedek%20-%20The%20Ancient%20Secret.Of%20The%20Flower%20Of%20Life.pdf

starts at page 208

Theres a bunch of stuff about the golden mean and fibs here. I think it has to do with dividing fibs into each other with a dash of the phi ratio and oregeno and GOD.

perhaps sarge will enlighten us

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21.

Divide 21 by the next number in the sequence, in this case 34. You get 0.618.
Divide 21 by the next number in the sequence, in this case 55. You get 0.382.
Divide 21 by the next number in the sequence, in this case 89. You get 0.236.

Works with all the numbers in the sequence...

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They lie.

As long as they work, I'm OK with it....and they do seem to work 55 to 89% of the time.

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As long as they work, I'm OK with it....and they do seem to work 55 to 89% of the time.

You know what they say about statistics.

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You know what they say about statistics.

I found this article funny

73.6% of all Statistics are Made Up

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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We touched the AWR low and pulled back off of it. Possible resistance above, if we break it could become support for a move up.



If today's high stays in place, I believe that becomes a high on the opposite side of the channel + below the 5 SMA creates a Pascal Sell signal. Will be interesting as this would be the first time we haven't touched it in the last week or so.



50 SMA is above and we touched it and pulled back (correlated with the AWR low).

And below is a money flow chart showing crude rocketing...


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I found this article funny

73.6% of all Statistics are Made Up


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Break of bear channel. I believe 4200 is a reasonable target for now.



Pascal sell signal did not fire, we also kept the trend of testing the 5 SMA. If we get a day above the SMA with the low at the other side of the envelope then that will be a buy signal and can mark the reversal up.



Globex is a large two bar bull reversal bar. Very strong and bullish buy signal.

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Pascal buy signal, todays low above the 5 SMA and on the other side of the envelope. Current down trend should be dead, we should be in a new leg up towards ATH's.

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Here is 2014 in her glory. I believe we will see ATH's by the end of the year, and early January will be marred by a pullback in which CNBC will question for the 20th time if the bull market is dead. Overall I don't care either way. But I believe 2015 will be a good year. If 2014 is any example it will take some work to get there.

This will be my last post here in the NQ thread until at least the first week of January. Hope everyone have a wonderful holiday season.

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Welcome back to work futures.io (formerly BMT).





NQ failed to make a new high, ES did, there is now a divergence there. From time to time the NQ or TF will diverge first and the other markets will follow. NQ is double topped at the moment. Could be a sign of a top. If signal fails it could trap bears (again) and rally to new highs.

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A few meaningful gaps below that could be filled.

Today is looking like there could be a potential double bottom / MTR forming at the moment if it works target is VWAP. If it fails we could see 4050 below.

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Trading volumes were very light in the New Year's holiday week. Global equity markets dipped during the final session of 2014 and then fell lower on the first day of trading in the New Year as weak data and jitters about upcoming Fed and ECB action drove risk appetite into the deep freeze. Manufacturing industry data from around the globe out this week was not especially positive, adding to the tepid atmosphere.

Looking back, 2014 was very good for major US equities: the S&P 500 rose 11% to 2,059, its sixth year of positive returns and its third straight year of double-digit gains. The DJIA added 7.5% to 17,823 after slipping below 18,000 on the final two days of trading, and the Nasdaq advanced 13%. Small-cap stocks were not quite as solid: the Russell 2000 climbed 3.5%. Europe's EuroStoxx 600 Index gained 3.9% on the year and Germany's DAX Index added 2.7%, although France's CAC40 dropped 1.2%. Chinese equities had their best performance since 2009 even as overall emerging-market shares posted the first back-to-back annual loss in 12 years.

US housing market data out this week remained tepid. The S&P/CaseShiller October home price survey showed that real estate price gains slowing a bit. The y/y gain dropped to +4.5% from +4.8% in September. Yale economist Shiller commented that the housing market is fragile and is still reliant on low interest rates. The November pending home sales m/m figure beat expectations and returned to positive territory after October's contraction. The December Chicago Purchasing Manager survey and the ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, hitting their lowest levels since mid-2014.

Oil prices sagged to fresh five-year lows, with front-month WTI dropping from the mid-$55 area on Monday as low as $52.50 on Wednesday. The contract bounced off the lows but by Friday came very close to the $52 level. Brent crude bottomed around $55.50 but closed out the week around $56. Interestingly the oil equities themselves continue hold up better. The OIH and XLE remain above their mid-December lows which expedited the latest move to fresh all-time highs for US stock indices.

Comments from ECB President Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Praet left little doubt that quantitative easing is imminent. On Tuesday, Praet said euro zone inflation was below 0% and would stay there for an extended period. The official December euro zone CPI reading is out next week could cement expectations for European QE after the November reading matched a 4-year low at 0.3%. Praet argued that sovereign bonds were the only asset class with enough volume to make an impact on the inflation issue. Draghi was less sanguine, but highlighted that the risk of deflation in euro zone cannot be ruled out. Unsurprisingly, various German figures refuted these assertions. Germany's 'wisemen' said there was no deflation while the CDU Deputy party Chairman Fuchs said the euro zone was no longer obligated to rescue Greece as they were no longer systemically important. Between imminent QE and the Greek situation, EUR/USD gravitated toward the psychological 1.2000 level (though did not break through) and the 10-year bund yield fell to fresh all-time lows of 0.49% while the 5-year now offers a negative yield for the first time ever.

The Greek political crisis helped push yield spreads to fresh record levels as the Greek 10-year yield approached 10% even as most other EU government bonds are at or near record low yields. After lawmakers rejected the government's candidate for president last weekend, Greek PM Samaras was forced to dissolve the parliament and call a general election on January 25th. Polls showed Syriza, the leftist, anti-bailout opposition party of Alexis Tsipras, to be the frontrunner in the race. Tsipras has promised to get a better deal from the Troika on Greece's bailout payments. The EU has sternly warned that any new government must abide by prior obligations, suggesting that in the event of a Syriza victory irreconcilable differences could lead to a "Grexit."

China's official December Manufacturing PMI survey hit its lowest level since mid-2013, even as the non-manufacturing survey recovered to a four-month high. Manufacturing PMI components New Orders and Output were at 2014 lows, and inventories and employment were at 10-month lows. November industrial profits data fell by 4.2%, the largest y/y decline in 27 months. The PBoC published a report confirming that the government would change the rules on loan-to-deposit ratio calculations in 2015 to inject further liquidity into the system. The new rules would allow the inclusion of savings held by banks for non-deposit-taking financial institutions in banks' deposits, expanding the ratios and boosting lending capacity.

In Japan, Prime Minister Abe continues to fine-tune his efforts to extinguish deflation and jumpstart the economy. The government said it is planning a $29B (3.5T) fiscal stimulus package, featuring subsidies for households to help stimulate consumption along with more relief for earthquake-hit areas. The plan is estimated to add 0.7% to 2015 GDP growth. The government also announced it would aim to cut the corporate tax rate to below 30% over the next several years. The FY15/16 tax reform will cut the corporate rate to 32.1% from 34.6%.

Source:
Weekly Wrap Up: New Year's Blues

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A little random line I draw earlier this week seemed to be in play today.



Is this the low?

No other real commentary other then I agree with something @srgtroy said today that it seems the price action front runned the FOMC announcement. But after 2 volatile days having a range day seems about right. May be the consolidation before Friday's job number.

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[IMG]...

A little random line I draw earlier this week seemed to be in play today.
...

If a line serves a useful purpose like showing a target or helps assessing the market bias then it is certainly not a random element in your arsenal. Why not thinking about it as an element that may contribute to your success. My opinion about trendlines have changed quite a bit over the past months for the better.

Here is my take regarding the nasdaq. The market bias is up until proven wrong, ie, a break of the ascending trendline to the downside occurs.

Monthly profile based on tick volume:

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If a line serves a useful purpose like showing a target or helps assessing the market bias then it is certainly not a random element in your arsenal. Why not thinking about it as an element that may contribute to your success. My opinion about trendlines have changed quite a bit over the past months for the better.

Here is my take regarding the nasdaq. The market bias is up until proven wrong, ie, a break of the ascending trendline to the downside occurs.

Monthly profile based on tick volume:

I agree. I believe that if you put some random lines on your chart and traded nothing but that you would make money. Problem is as humans we just can't do that.

Trendlines, S/R, and any other item on a chart can serve a purpose. Even the vaulted VWAP. There are some lines that are more or less random then others (pivots vs fibs, etc.)

When I worked in the semiconductor industry there was a saying "Stay as close to the wafer as possible". This meant you wanted a job that was directly related to the production of the chip, everything past that was fair game to job cuts. In trading I want to "Stay as close to price as possible". Closer to the price and closer to the present the better. Everything has a place somewhere, moving avg's, channels, VWAP, etc.

I have always said, pick something and do it.

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...When I worked in the semiconductor industry there was a saying "Stay as close to the wafer as possible". This meant you wanted a job that was directly related to the production of the chip, everything past that was fair game to job cuts. In trading I want to "Stay as close to price as possible"...

Reminds me of this:


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Pretty double bottom on the 38.2% retracement. Indeed, on the intraday chart of the 6th, you will see another very pretty intraday double bottom right off the 4089 level. Anyway, there are some additional fibs known only to the freemasons that indicate strong support at 4089 FOR THIS WEEK. However, additional illuminati fibs also paint the 23.6% retracement at 4186 as a key go/no go level for this bounce. As Chris Berman of ESPN likes to say "That's why they play the game..."


Update: Adding chart of the intraday double bottom on the 6th and the bounce so far:



*No correlations are required with the use of these tools ()

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Do you begin to see how a few trendlines can drive price action...

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Current support on the weekly:



Daily view:



It's all about 4089 holding...otherwise we go to 4000.

Interestingly, just for today's session, there is a freemason fib at 4075 which could be the last line for the bulls...

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Pretty nice double bottom at around yesterday's low.

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Slanted Butterfly/Gartley inside a Trend Channel...


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Do you begin to see how a few trendlines can drive price action...

I am hoping that your sarcastic emoji means your statement is a joke.

Trendlines, pivots, and any other indicator on the chart is like the waves on a lake. The waves themselves do not move the water but are evidence of the wind's effect on the water. A trendline is evidence of an action being taking on price. Did the trendline cause price to move? No. Are trendlines, pivots, fibs, etc helpful? Sure, as long as they are seen for what they are and treated as such.

Price is much like a lake. It is the flow in and out of that lake that directly moves it. With price it is the flow of money in and out that cause price to move. In the days of the pit you could watch and see the movers and shakers pull and push price up and down all day long. Today we only have the screen with price and a few indicators.

Understanding this has allowed me to understand that any thing I put on my chart will work and it will fail. And now when it fails I am no longer caught off guard. If something works, use it. If it doesn't remove it. Problem we all have is to really know and understand when something stops working and how to move forward with out.

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Again black line is that measured move from 2014, bounced around that area. That measured move did not drive price. But gave me an area to watch and see how price reacts off of it.



Bear channel on the hourly, you can see the 4080's appears to be a range bottom and are bought each time we drop into it. 4070 is an area I am watching if that breaks and holds it could be a shift, if not a break of that could be quickly bought into a rally back to the top. I think it may be a bit before we see it again. I believe this week we will be back towards 4200 and test of the top of the channel.



NQ's failure to reach an ATM and now created two lower highs is a bit bearish for me. But I also see this whole thing as a flag or descending triangle. Again you can see that 4070 area, if this range is broken and that break down fails it could be the move we need to see price rally higher.



No real direction in the pascal channel yet.

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I am hoping that your sarcastic emoji means your statement is a joke.

Trendlines, pivots, and any other indicator on the chart is like the waves on a lake. The waves themselves do not move the water but are evidence of the wind's effect on the water. A trendline is evidence of an action being taking on price. Did the trendline cause price to move? No. Are trendlines, pivots, fibs, etc helpful? Sure, as long as they are seen for what they are and treated as such.

Price is much like a lake. It is the flow in and out of that lake that directly moves it. With price it is the flow of money in and out that cause price to move. In the days of the pit you could watch and see the movers and shakers pull and push price up and down all day long. Today we only have the screen with price and a few indicators.

Understanding this has allowed me to understand that any thing I put on my chart will work and it will fail. And now when it fails I am no longer caught off guard. If something works, use it. If it doesn't remove it. Problem we all have is to really know and understand when something stops working and how to move forward with out.

If what causes price to move is important then tell me what was causing the NQ to move up and than down today? And how important it was in your decision making.

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If what causes price to move is important then tell me what was causing the NQ to move up and than down today? And how important it was in your decision making.

Being a US holiday today would be heavily influenced by Euro and algos. And it wasn't important to me at all as I wasn't trading.

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Being a US holiday today would be heavily influenced by Euro and algos. And it wasn't important to me at all as I wasn't trading.

You can only second guess what caused price to move today and most probably you'll know it after the fact. By your answer, i can see you have no idea what caused the NQ to move up and then down today. If you are a day trader then knowing what drives price on a higher scale will make no difference to your bottom line.

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If you are a day trader then knowing what drives price on a higher scale will make no difference to your bottom line.

I beg to differ it can actually make all the difference. Because once you realize that you will move to trade longer and less intraday.

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If you are a day trader then knowing what drives price on a higher scale will make no difference to your bottom line.

Five years ago I would have said something similar.

What's changed, for me, is the realization it is simply much easier to make money on bigger time frames. And for that, you do need a fundamental understanding of why price is moving -- not just where it moved. Context is king.

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The Swiss National Bank roiled global markets this week by unceremoniously removing the 1.2000 floor put under the EUR/CHF cross back in 2011, prompting the franc to gain as much as 35% versus the euro on Thursday. Social media christened the move "Francogeddon" and the CEO of Swatch called it a tsunami. SNB Chief Jordan said his strategy was to "take markets by surprise," and he succeeded. The SNB move was widely taken as another confirmation that the ECB will move on its QE program next week. Just 24-hours earlier the EU's highest court gave the ECB a green light to proceed with QE, even as December euro zone CPI data showed most member states in negative inflation. Front-month WTI and Brent crude reached parity on Tuesday for the first time since the summer of 2013, as both February contracts traded below $46, but prices regained some ground later in the week. In the US, December inflation readings slipped lower, giving the doves on the Fed ammunition for their arguments that rate hikes can wait. Note that the yield on the 10-year UST has contracted nearly every session in January, and traded as low as 1.70% after the SNB's move on Thursday. Gold rallied pushing the futures back above the 200-day moving average for the first time since late summer. For the week, the DJIA fell 1.3%, the S&P500 dipped 1.2% and the Nasdaq lost 1.5%.

Eleven out of 18 euro zone nations reported negative inflation rates for the month of December, while total Eurozone CPI in December was -0.2% y/y, at its lowest rate since September 2009. The biggest downward impacts in the reports were from fuel prices, clearly demonstrating the impact of the oil meltdown. ECB's Coeure responded to the data by saying the euro zone is still not in deflation but the risk of deflation has worsened.

With inflation on a slippery slope, few doubt that the ECB QE is right around the corner (the SNB least of all). On Wednesday, the European Court of Justice handed down a non-binding opinion that the 2012 OMT bond-buying blueprint did not break EU law. Anti-QE German hawks had brought the case, hoping to forestall what they saw was bad policy. Not surprisingly, Bundesbank Chief Weidmann claimed the court's opinion also showed that there were legal limits on the ECB, citing commentary in the opinion that said the ECB's activities need safeguards to prevent violations of the prohibition against direct financing of governments. By Friday reports were suggesting Draghi presented Merkel and her staff a plan for QE that they could live with which will be centered on national central banks purchasing their own countries bonds.

US rates saw a wild week of trading as events in Europe and Asia, softer US economic data along with sliding commodity prices kept downward pressure on inflation expectations. The 5-year forward breakeven rate fell to its lowest level since 1999 and the 5-year TIPS breakeven fell below 1.2% after surprise central bank moves overseas. The US 10-year yield plunged through the October low to trade as low as 1.70% at one point, down close to 30 basis points on the week. Short rates fell also, leading traders to bid up Fed fund futures contracts, pushing out rate hike expectations modestly towards Q3 2015.

The strength of the US holiday shopping season is still in doubt after disappointing retail sales data for December. The Advance Retail Sales reading on Wednesday was a worse than expected -0.9% m/m, and still disappointed after removing the volatile auto sales segment. Meanwhile, shares of Best Buy and Tiffany both fell hard, after the electronics retailer said holiday sales fell slightly y/y while the jeweler cut its FY15 forecast citing headwinds from the strong dollar.

The Q4 earnings reporting season kicked off with Alcoa's numbers on Monday afternoon. Alcoa's earnings were better than expected on decent automotive demand, higher aluminum prices and lower energy costs, although its FY15 global aluminum demand growth forecast was in line with FY14's +7% y/y estimate, and it warned of a possible decline in commercial transport production in FY15.

JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citibank all missed expectations and saw both earnings and revenue slip lower y/y in fourth-quarter earnings reports. Results from the three banks were weighed down by charges, civil penalties, and slumping revenue from trading. JP Morgan's fixed income trading revenue fell 23% y/y, the worst performance of the bunch. Goldman Sachs managed to beat earnings expectations, but its earnings and revenue also fell y/y, and its trading unit saw revenue drop 29% y/y in the quarter.

Copper prices slumped to a five year low midweek, with the front-month Comex contract dropping as low as $2.42 a pound. Traders blamed the slide on the World Bank citing the possibility of a "disorderly slowdown" in China as a key factor behind its decision to lower its global growth outlook for 2015 (China accounts for nearly 40% of demand for copper). The big mining names were hit hard, with Glencore down more than 14% and Anglo American off about 10% on Monday and Tuesday.

Data continues to reflect China's gradual economic slowdown, adding to the case for additional PBoC action in the first half of 2015. The China December trade surplus was in line with estimates, but imports fell again, evidence of soft domestic consumption. China's Customs Bureau also remarked that for the entire 2014, trade growth would be just 3.4% - well below the official 7.5% target - and weak conditions could persist in Q1. Foreign direct investment for all of 2014 rose just 1.7%, the slowest rate since 2012. Chinese banks issued 697.3 billion yuan of new loans in December, well below the 800 billion yuan forecasted. Perhaps the most telling was China's 2014 power consumption which is one of Premier Li' favored economic indicators, as its growth slowed to just 3.8% from 7.5% in 2013. The latest economic developments prompted Beijing to add to targeted stimulus, with the PBoC offering 50 billion yuan ($8.1B) in discounted credit to banks to support loans for farmers and small businesses.

In Japan, the Nikkei225 index hit a ten week low, falling 1.9% on the week as global risk aversion zapped yen-funded carry flows. The BOJ will meet next week and offer an update on its CPI and GDP projections, and some Japan-watchers are speculating that the inflation outlook might be revised lower due to plummeting oil prices. After an outsized policy response in October, new large measures are not likely to come any time soon, however there was some chatter that the BOJ would consider an extension to the program that provides low-interest loans for financial institutions to encourage even more lending.


Source: Weekly Wrap Up: Swiss Mess

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Lower high major trend reversal late morning for my Brooks fans. Got short on the 12:05 bar, looking for a bear close on the day...

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Lower high major trend reversal late morning for my Brooks fans. Got short on the 12:05 bar, looking for a bear close on the day...

Saw it but was unable to trade as I was out and about.

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That dirty TL held price down.



We are above the AWN High and now wedging beneath the TL. I think a good break that closes above the TL will see some follow through. If we close beneath the AWN high then we should be looking to test the AWN low.



TL from hour + TL from daily + AMN low and that is solid resistance above. Again I believe a good break of this will see a good rally up.

Tomorrow if the low is above the 5 SMA that should be a Pascal Buy Signal.

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Price found some resistance from a couple of lines. But we all know, it's just an illusion.



The Guy is staring at the statue, perplexed, trying to figure out the next clue, when a child says to him, "The Fool Looks At The Finger That Points To The Sky", meaning, "the statue is pointing to where you want to go next, fool!"

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Doji on the globex daily. Dojis at the highs have lead to pullbacks. This is a descending triangle, we have had three pushes up. I think next week we could break out, I believe this rally needs an ATH. If that isn't obtained then we could see more selling pressure.



AS you can see we got the BO of the TL after we tested the AWN high again. Yesterday we rallied to the AWR high and have since broken out of that. Today's action was range bound.



AMN High is above, I believe that is our target for the move at the moment. If we can break that then the AMR above would put us at an ATH.

Overall I am bullish but do see some resistance above.

EDIT: I haven't been able to trade this week really. Looking to be back in the saddle again Monday.

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I've heard a more seasoned trader then me say "Futures Lie, But Cash Doesn't Lie", so lets look at the index itself:



Classic Pennant on the Daily. Generally, this is a continuation pattern. A break and hold above 4300 means we are going higher...if you go for this sort of thing

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If we do go up, here are some levels to keep an eye on:

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If we do go up, here are some more levels to keep an eye on


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I am new to futures.io (formerly BMT) and loving the fellow traders posts. It really inspires and keep me focused. A very big thank you to Big Mike for such a wonderful forum.

Now back to discussion, Its been a year since I moved to US (from India). I especially looked only on NQ100 Index.
I have been following DEMA (5/20), SMA 50/100. They have been very good in terms of Stop and Reverse Method (Trading Virtually). I am not trading positional as of yet due to funds constraints just doing Intraday with pivot/stochastics strategy.

My question to fellow traders, Is anyone following same method and can someone explain about thier strategy. Posted my view on NQ100 for upcoming days.

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NQ100 my view..

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20 DEMA was a good resistance for the day. Prices went above 20 DEMA but could not hold for first hour. There have been multiple attempts but could not break. 20 DEMA followers had a good day.

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Looking for a bullish signal below 4140, if the area fails, then target 4100 sometime this week

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Looking for a bullish signal below 4140, if the area fails, then target 4100 sometime this week

What would you consider a bullish signal?

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i think the market priced in my support area and reacting in overnight session. I'm more focused in reacting toward the pattern that we currently have. Thinking failure sometime today or tomorrow. So want to see some clues that my support area fails b4 we hit 4100 and lower. Weeklies IMO suggest lower.

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  #392 (permalink)
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Down channel, still within ADN boxes so possibly just bear move in a range. Lowers are bough back, I am overall bullish, but see lower lows possible.



We went from the AWN low to the AWN high, and now seem to be trying to find support on it. If we do, could lead us higher. Failed of AWN high could see us look to test lower more.


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1. 21/24 EMAs crossover in 30 mins Charts.
2. Market just above 5 Daily EMA.
3. Intraday Trendlines channel view.

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1. 21/24 EMAs crossover in 30 mins Charts.
2. Market just above 5 Daily EMA.
3. Intraday Trendlines channel view.

Book 1 of 25 points and ride with the trend or trail SL.

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Trendlines updated..

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another possibility just intraday..

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Morning view

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Trendline update

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Globex daily chart. We had a failed second entry short that has bounced off the 150 SMA. Now we are finding some resistance at the 50 SMA.



AWN high held support, I believe that we are going to the AWR high at 4248. We may pull back to the VAH on the weekly before then.



5 SMA has held support last two days. We are above the AMN high. Overall bullish.

I am long 1 car from 4201 from this morning, goal is to hold it as long as I can...

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Book 1 of 25 points and ride with the trend or trail SL.

I don't understand your statement. Are you trading this commentary you are posting?

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