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NQ-nalysis

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  #201 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
I'm starting to see the lines take shape


You figured out the system! The fibonacci Apple!

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You figured out the system! The fibonacci Apple!


R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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JUST BUY THE F&^%ING DIP.

Last chart has been zoomed out to put 2014 in perspective. Red dashed line from highs down is a 10% correction. I put that on there to put somethings in perspective.

I believe this is the channel reversal so I am looking to get LONG again tomorrow.

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I still believe in BTFD, but looking for price to find some levels of support after yesterdays parabolic move. Today price is being wedged between ADN low and VWAP.

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Possible bull channel forming... Will see how it plays out.





EDIT: it has failed... Looking for AWE at 3950.50.

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Big flush today. I have changed the hourly chart channel lines. The blue dotted line is the original channel line, the red solid line is a new channel line. The red marks a shift over the last week and I will phase out the blue dotted line after tomorrow probably.

Each break of the blue channel has been violently rejected. Up or down. Today saw a flush back into the blue channel and near the floor of the red channel. I am looking for AWR low at least. I am a buyer between 3930-3950.

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  #208 (permalink)
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Another big flush today out the bottom of the new channel line. Monday I will be looking to see if I can find a tighter channel down.




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Mondays Levels:


Hard to do commentary, really. Just have to watch price action against the different levels. That's all there really is to it. After Monday's session, we can judge the efficacy of these levels.

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I am expecting a massive rip up. But we will wait and see what the day gives.

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Tested ADN high it failed, VPOC pushed price through ADN low and now we have hit ADR low. We have also hit the 150 DMA at 3815. 200 DMA is at 3762. A full on 10% correction would be 3742.

I believe it is coming... Just don't know when. But I am still expecting a big rip up.

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Some numbers:

20 DMA- 3982
50 DMA- 4014
100 DMA- 3930 (Last Touch 05-2014)
150 DMA- 3815 (Last Touch 05-2014)
200 DMA- 3762 (Last Touch 11-2012)

10% Correction- 3742 (Also top of Feb/Mar TR)

Just remember the only thing that spreads faster then ebola is fear.

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Weekly Wrap Up by Live Stock Market Forex News Expert Market Analysis - TradeTheNews.com STAFF

Volatility shook global markets this week, severely testing the long equity rally. Wednesday saw the biggest one-day gain of the year in the S&P500 and Thursday marked the biggest decline in the index since April. The VIX volatility index moved sharply higher, topping 20 for the first time since February. The downside ramp got underway thanks to disastrous German industrial data published on Monday and Tuesday. German August factory orders data declined 5.7% m/m (the biggest m/m drop since early 2009), led lower by a big slide in overseas orders. German August industrial production declined 4% m/m, much more than expected. In addition, the IMF cut its 2014 global growth forecast to from +3.4% to +3.3% and its 2015 forecast from +4.0% to +3.8%. The DJIA and S&P500 were down 2.5% a piece by Wednesday morning, and participants read deeply between the lines of the FOMC minutes to uncover the possibility of the Fed holding off on rate hikes longer, driving a sharp reversal. The sugar high didn't last, and markets closed at the lows of the week (or much lower, in the case of the Nasdaq, which is right at its 200-day moving average). Ebola fear spread to new corners of the globe all week - the first confirmed transmission of the virus outside of Africa struck a nurse in Madrid - but nearly all the reports were false alarms. For the week, the DJIA dropped 2.7%, the S&P500 fell 3.1% and the Nasdaq lost 4.5%, the worst week for the tech index since May 2012. After the cash close on Friday, S&P futures saw another spike in volatility around the 1900 mark, rallying 6 handles before falling nearly 10 points in the final minute of index futures trade to close on the lows, portending more volatility in stock trading Monday, when the bond market is closed for Columbus Day.

The FOMC minutes were the real catalyst for Wednesday's short-lived rally, although the absence of any surprises in the report may have been the real good news. Many observers were drawn to comments in the minutes about the possible downside risks from dollar appreciation and weak global growth, although more savvy analysts pointed out that Fed Chair Yellen had also cited these as possible downside risks at her post-decision press conference at the September FOMC meeting. While it is true that explicit comments about the impact of dollar FX movements are somewhat rare for Fed officials, it's also worth noting that the moves in the dollar have been rather sharp recently. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Fischer said that the central bank must take into account the impact of the dollar on aggregate demand, and also said the issue would be discussed at the next FOMC meeting.

As portended last week, the IMF cut its 2014 global growth forecast to from +3.4% to +3.3% and its 2015 forecast from +4.0% to +3.8%, citing eurozone recession risks and emerging market slowdown. The outlook for the global economy has darkened and the IMF sees a more than one-in-three chance the eurozone will slide into its third recession since the financial crisis. The IMF maintained its China 2014 GDP forecast at +7.4% (nearly in line with China's official 7.5% forecast), and raised the US 2014 forecast from +1.7% to +2.2%.

On Thursday, WTI crude was drilled down to $83.55, its lowest level since last June and Brent tested lows last seen in late 2011, near $88/barrel. The slide continues to be driven by oversupply concerns and the possibility of flagging demand from battered economies, exacerbated by dollar strength. More proximate catalysts included the weekly API inventory report, which showed the biggest weekly build in crude inventories since April. Further analysis regarding Saudi Arabia's price reductions last week suggested the moves were aimed at boosting refinery margins in Asia and were not the opening move in an OPEC price war. Additionally, there was a report that crude priced below $90 a barrel would render drilling for oil in some shale formations uneconomical, starting with the Bakken region.

The crisis in Hong Kong dimmed considerably after the authorities in the enclave agreed to hold talks on Friday with student protestors over changes to the local election laws that had sparked the unrest. Just a day before talks were to begin, Hong Kong Chief Secretary Carrie Lam cancelled the negotiations claiming they had been undermined by attempts to start a new civil disobedience campaign to pressure the Hong Kong anti-graft agency to probe a payment of $6.4M to Hong Kong's leader C.Y. Leung. By Friday, large crowds of students were back out on the streets of Hong Kong.

Alcoa started the earnings season off on a positive note, reporting strong third-quarter earnings, boosted by higher aluminum prices. Both earnings and revenue widely topped expectations - EPS gained 70% y/y - while margins and operating income were up significantly. Most components of the firm's FY14 outlook were unchanged, although it notably brightened its forecast for North America commercial transport market.

Samsung Electronics disclosed ugly preliminary third quarter results. Samsung warned operating profits would fall 60% y/y as the company's smartphone sector struggles to cope with increased competition. Sales guidance was down more than 20% y/y. Mobile devices are the key driver of the company's profits, and its second quarter profit fell 20% y/y for much the same reasons.

Semi names were short circuited on Friday after Microchip Technology reportedly preliminary second quarter revenue results that fell short of both consensus expectations and the company's own guidance. The company said September is usually strong, but this year expected sales did not materialize. The revenue miss was led by China, where the September quarter is traditionally the strongest. Microchip CEO Sanghi said "We believe that another industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."

Shares of Sears Holding declined 13% this week on reports that insurance firms were cutting coverage of Sears trade credits, prompting at least one suppler to halt shipments to the company. Sears would neither confirm nor deny the report, and emphasized its significant financial flexibility. Elsewhere in the annals of insolvency, GT Advanced Technologies filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The firm is exiting its sapphire manufacturing operation after a failed effort to produce the material for Apple's smartphone screens.

Activist investors made a splash this week in shares of Darden and Apple. Carl Icahn renewed his call for Apple to launch a $100B tender offer for shares, as part of a long, rambling letter to Tim Cook that read mostly like fan fiction. Icahn said he had not sold a single share of his stake. Just a month after releasing its infamous slide deck detailing Olive Garden's corporate and culinary failures (too many breadsticks, no salt in the pasta pots), activist fund Starboard won its proxy fight with Darden and replaced all 12 of the company's directors with its own nominees.

After closing in on 1.2500 last week, the dollar eased up through Thursday morning, with EUR/USD trading almost back to the 1.2800 handle. The pair turned around and closed out the week around 1.2620. The 1.2400 level is a key psychological point for EUR/USD, as it was there that ECB President Draghi made his famous "whatever it takes" pledge back in July 2012.

The monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan reiterated its overall economic assessment of "moderate recovery as a trend", but also lowered its view of industrial production. The BOJ cited inventory adjustment among the reasons for output "showing some weakness". One of the BOJ's more dovish voters, Sayuri Shirai, also added a dissent on the inflation component of the statement, calling for greater acknowledgement of an increasing number of price indicators turning flat. The dissent is symbolic in that this week's decision serves as a precursor to the late-October meeting, when the central bank will offer its semi-annual revisions to near-medium term projections for growth and inflation. Also of note in Japan, the government's economic officials have turned more mixed on the rapid depreciation of the Yen, citing more limited positive impact on exports against the negative implications for some of the domestic industries. USD/JPY has certainly heeded that change in sentiment, falling by its biggest weekly margin in over a year.

The Shanghai Composite returned from an extended break and finished the week flat. The mainland property sector remained supported by the latest PBoC measures to ease eligibility criteria for preferential "first home mortgages", but the focus next week will turn to September trade, lending, and inflation data. As Beijing prepares for the 4th party Plenum, the government's official 7.5% GDP target for 2014 is coming into question. Just this week, the World Bank lowered its China 2014 growth estimate to 7.4%, matching the forecast maintained by the latest IMF projections. China Academy of Social Sciences think tank also warned that 2014 GDP could slow to 7.3%, as the government accelerates "various reforms to move toward healthier growth." The latest Q3 GDP figures are scheduled to be released later this month on October 20th


Source: Weekly Wrap Up: October 10, 2014

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Mondays Levels:


Hard to do commentary, really. Just have to watch price action against the different levels. That's all there really is to it. After Monday's session, we can judge the efficacy of these levels.

Today's Results:

At the open, price headed south to test the confluence of the Major Weekly Fib at 3830 and the Major Daily Fib at 3818. It then bounced and headed north, but could not sustain its momentum, went sideways, then finally gave up its gains and retreated back to that same confluence.

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Video analysis.

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TL broke. We also failed to stay below ADN low. We are now testing ADN high. Possible target of ADR high at 3859.

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Range day so far. Failure below ADN low and above ADN High. Each touch of the +2 SD band has been a good short back to +1 SD / VWAP. As @josh said in the Spoo thread we are stuck in the Ebola range from yesterday. NQ we need 3860+ for good bullish case, and below 3800 for bear.

Overall flat, trying to stay neutral at the moment, and let the market tell me what it wants to do.

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Ebola range describes the day.

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Today's Results:

At the open, price headed south to test the confluence of the Major Weekly Fib at 3830 and the Major Daily Fib at 3818. It then bounced and headed north, but could not sustain its momentum, went sideways, then finally gave up its gains and retreated back to that same confluence.

With so many lines not surprising that price reacts to some!
see here


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Not a Trade Call, just Possible outcome @tturner86
I know we are in Strong Bear Trend, But i will be watching for Break of NQ 3825 for a Possible move up to 3852.
I am Posting Larger Intraday Chart showing Triple Bottom from Today Price Action, along with a bit Smaller Chart
showing Beginning of Move....Structure Looks Good if we can Break 3825...of Course i have been wrong before

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Not a Trade Call, just Possible outcome @tturner86
I know we are in Strong Bear Trend, But i will be watching for Break of NQ 3825 for a Possible move up to 3852.
I am Posting Larger Intraday Chart showing Triple Bottom from Today Price Action, along with a bit Smaller Chart
showing Beginning of Move....Structure Looks Good if we can Break 3825...of Course i have been wrong before

Yes, I noticed the triple bottom from Yesterday and Today. I still believe we need a good close above 3850 to gain some bull momentum.

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Yes, I noticed the triple bottom from Yesterday and Today. I still believe we need a good close above 3850 to gain some bull momentum.

I Agree with Needing to Break above 3850 for further moves Higher...we are on our way as we speak...next Resistance 3832....then maybe Higher during Asian season from what i am seeing.

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No Go to thr up side, will wait and see what Develops above Support 3792, we did Challenge 3832 were NQ turned
down in Asian session....still no real buyers, and i think Support will be Tested again.

Well we just busted Support,

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Hey guys.

As price at least for me is approaching an area of interest I thought I would throw in my 2 cents and see what others thought about where price is at the moment and what it might do moving forward. Red channel is the one in question with the midpoint roughly drawn in, as far as the support and resistance goes the nearest support at 3740 might be a little weak as it has not really been tested so much but to get there price will have to break trend.

Gozilla.

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Sold at VWAP into the Leg down under Support.
Sold again for Scalp as my smaller Chart showing some signs of Reversal, so i Exit.
Flat and Watching.

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Hey guys.

As price at least for me is approaching an area of interest I thought I would throw in my 2 cents and see what others thought about where price is at the moment and what it might do moving forward. Red channel is the one in question with the midpoint roughly drawn in, as far as the support and resistance goes the nearest support at 3740 might be a little weak as it has not really been tested so much but to get there price will have to break trend.

Gozilla.

Awesome. Thanks for the insights!

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No Go to thr up side, will wait and see what Develops above Support 3792, we did Challenge 3832 were NQ turned
down in Asian session....still no real buyers, and i think Support will be Tested again.

Well we just busted Support,

3742 is a 10% correction from the high. We are only 20 pts away now.

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NQ Video Analysis.

Good luck today traders.

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3742 is a 10% correction from the high. We are only 20 pts away now.

Bounced Nicely from that Area back up to VWAP

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Bounced Nicely from that Area back up to VWAP

I got DOM and price issues. I got a small trade at the open, got burned on a second. I'm flat until I can fig out what's going on.

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I got DOM and price issues. I got a small trade at the open, got burned on a second. I'm flat until I can fig out what's going on.

We have to leave for town.
A lot of Ticks in the Markets lately, if one can catch a trend...i try to do the best i can.

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I was gone to town from 10:45am- 2:30pm and missed a lot of moves.
This is the kind of days when/if you can catch a trend just right it can make your month

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I was gone to town from 10:45am- 2:30pm and missed a lot of moves.
This is the kind of days when/if you can catch a trend just right it can make your month

I got the bounce from 72-82. Once I got out it has now fallen to 62.

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I got the bounce from 72-82. Once I got out it has now fallen to 62.

You got the last bit before it Turned at the Resistance, which was where those Triple Bottoms forms yesterday....this
Market is moving...just went down to VWAP

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You got the last bit before it Turned at the Resistance, which was where those Triple Bottoms forms yesterday....this
Market is moving...just went down to VWAP

NFLX just reported bad guidance and is now -25%. Pulled the NQ down from resistance.

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Commentary in video.

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@tturner86,

Can you give me the ADN(10) high and low for today for NQ and was it based on pit sessions or globex sessions?

Thanks,

Wolf

PS.. We are trying to create a SC ADN indicator.

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@tturner86,

Can you give me the ADN(10) high and low for today for NQ and was it based on pit sessions or globex sessions?

Thanks,

Wolf

PS.. We are trying to create a SC ADN indicator.

3759.50 ADN High, 3731.50 ADN Low. It is RTH or pit session.

@Fat Tails had mentioned that it is also requires the opening print to calculation. 3745.25 was open.

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tturner86 View Post
3759.50 ADN High, 3731.50 ADN Low. It is RTH or pit session.

@Fat Tails had mentioned that it is also requires the opening print to calculation. 3745.25 was open.

The values are correct. Noise bands are symmetrical bands around the open. The average noise is added to and subtracted from the open.

Today's regular open was indeed 3745.25, the average noise over 10 and 20 days was

ADN[10] = 20.50
ADN[20] = 13.00

This is an extreme situation. It means that over the last 10 trading days NQ made an average of 20.50 points to the closest extreme, while over the prior 10 days that same average was 5.50 points (13.00 is just the average calculated from 5.50 and 20.50)! Both volatility and uncertainty have shown a dramatic increase.

For the noise bands I have taken the arithmetic mean of ADN[10] and the ADN[20], but this is not necessary. You could also use 5 and 10 days and average them, if you want to have a look at a shorter period.

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This was a Battle with Buyers winning up to this Point.....i had to grit my teeth in most Trades
This is one of the Charts showing some Nice set ups...although i did not take half of them

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Circle is double bottom (triple) at the open that saw a rally today to the AWR Low. Arrow is a LVN at 3787.50. We have failed over the last two days to get through this area.



On that daily we can see re rallied up to the VAH from yesterday and sold back below Y-VPOC. Today was also an inside range day of yesterday.

Good news is lows of 3700 are being bought, but 3770-3800's are being sold. So we are stuck until one side can get some momentum.

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Buyers have pushed Prices back above 3800

Made it up to 3840.50, and then Selling off.....Currently near VWAP.

Last Charts late in the Session shows Divergence at Recent Support Area around 3791.....Price moved from there up to 3821 and looks like we Closed just above 3800....we will see if 3791 Area holds.....If it does not hold we could be looking at a Failed A up, or 1-2-3 Top on these Shorter term Charts.

The Charts i posted are Short term Intraday Swing Charts i use to identify set ups for Day Trading.

I will be Looking to @ tturner86 to see his view and what Levels we could head toward next week.

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Today we rallied in globex and opened with a gap up and over the LVN at 3780's. Open we saw a sell off to this LVN that closed the gap with the Y-High. This backfilled the LVN and found support above the AWR Low.

Weekly VPOC shifted down and price has since traded above it. This is good context for more up. 3851.25/3857.25/3883.00 are all resistance above and should be watched.



On the daily we sold off to the VAL from 10/15 and rallied since then. AMR Low is 3857.75 and is resistance above.

Overall I am done for the week, Flat after ES trade last night and two NQ trades this morning. Today's close will be the tell about next week.

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Buyers have pushed Prices back above 3800

Thank you for your charts, always good to see something different and get different set of eyes on stuff.

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Only commentary is a note on the last Globex daily chart. The red dashed line is the 10% move I started watching a last week or so. The day we hit it was the day I marked on the chart (no clue that would happen.) Just seemed odd to me.

Anyways the black line is the top of the Feb/May TR. This week we failed to close below it, today globex session tested that area and rallied off of it.

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How 'bout some TA 101?



Island reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia





Commentary in video.

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tturner86 View Post
How 'bout some TA 101?



Island reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia





Commentary in video.

Looks closed to me, or are you referring to closing the gap with candle 6? I guess you guys are right about the gap being between the close and not the daily high or the low. But what really drives a gap close? Is it people getting out at break-even from the previous day? I never found that out.

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Looks closed to me, or are you referring to closing the gap with candle 6? I guess you guys are right about the gap being between the close and not the daily high or the low. But what really drives a gap close? Is it people getting out at break-even from the previous day? I never found that out.

Inside the bars we closed the gap, but for me there is still a gap because we have no hour bars open or close inside the gap. I will be watching to see if we trade in or away from the gap. Away from the gap is bullish and looking like a reversal. Where as if we trade into the gaps it becomes bearish.

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We tested but traded away from the gap. I am bullish at the moment. But the AWN high is currently resistance.







The last chart is a globex daily. You can see that we traded beneath the measured move (black line), from the Feb-May TR. It also became the 10% correction. We traded beneath but did not close beneath it. We have now rallied away from it. As along as we trade away from the gaps and the MM we should be bullish.

We have been down for a bit so now there are new levels of resistance above that we will have to get through. It won't be easy but I am generally bullish at the moment.

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Only commentary: AWN high is acting as resistance still... Need a good close above and it can become support later today and this week.

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Slow grind up, we have closes above the AWN high now.


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@ tturner86...looks like we maintained Bullish Trend so far today....the 3791 Support did hold, and we actually Bounced from that Area with Divergence Set up, which was good for Entry.
we just Broke through 3852.00......Looks like Next Resistance 3885.75...
Looks like the "Island Reversal" was Correct Analysis.

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@ tturner86...looks like we maintained Bullish Trend so far today....the 3791 Support did hold, and we actually Bounced from that Area with Divergence Set up, which was good for Entry.
we just Broke through 3852.00......Looks like Next Resistance 3885.75...
Looks like the "Island Reversal" was Correct Analysis.

Looking good so far.

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Good solid buying pressure on the hourly. Note how each hour's bar opens and closes outside of the previous bar. 3829 AWN High has been broken and held as support. 3885.75 is PW-High, 3926.25 is AWR High. If we continue the strong buying pressure this would be my first target.



Double bottom / Island Reversal is still in play. 10-17 was a doji day, but we got solid continuation today and closed on our high tick. Very strong bull pressure at the moment. We broke AMR low of 3857.75. Next resistance above is back to the AMN low of 3989.75. I would like to see that tested before the end of the month. Tomorrow I will be looking if we trade back into today's candle that we are above VAH or VPOC. A test of those levels with good buying will be more bullish for me. Trading below today's open is no good, I would like to see us hold support and stay away from the gap.



10-15/16/17-2014 candles are a wolverine bottom signal. (Bear doji bull with long wicks). This is a buy signal and is on solid support of the 3742 MM. This area was tested multiple times and we have rallied from it.

3912 is 20 DMA, 3934 is 100 DMA, and 4006 is 50 DMA. All targets above in this move. Could become resistance, but would like them to turn to support if traded through.

4070's is the MM from 3742.

Good luck and good hunting...

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Large gap up this morning. I was on the wrong side trying to close the gap. Trade management is the only reason I got out with a profit. Everything is still looking bullish, but we are starting to reach some levels of resistance. Will have to see what happens next.

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0

After the big gap up we have continued the slow drift up... One of those days, just F*&^ing buy.

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Thanks for posting these updates, I've been long since yesterday morning. Added today.

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Thanks for posting these updates, I've been long since yesterday morning. Added today.

Good for you, nice to see someone long, strong, and got it going on.

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Told you around noon to just buy. How many did?

I finally bought 3957 and rode the last leg...

I missed an entry at 12:25 AM CST. But I made some money today so I won't complain.

Strong trend, day closed near high tick, bars are outside of previous bar on daily and hourly. Steam is mounting...

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Market volatility reached epic levels this week. By Wednesday afternoon, the S&P500 had given up than 4% on the week after a series of unfortunate events hammered risk assets, drove liquidation and raised fear the dreaded correction had arrived. However most of the gap was filled in the second half of the week as the soothing possibility of more central bank easing emerged. On Wednesday, the withdrawal of Ireland's exotic tax avoidance laws, which inspired AbbVie to cancel its $54 billion merger with Shire, slammed many US hedge funds that were long Shire in an arbitrage trade. The same day, talk that the Greek anti-euro, anti-bailout opposition had strengthened its influence drove a massive sell-off in European peripheral debt, further hurting many US hedge funds that were long the instruments. On top of that the Ebola scare reached a fever pitch with false alarms across the US, though only one additional case was confirmed. The combined effect was risk asset liquidation, driving the VIX index above 30 for the first time in nearly two years. Commenting on Wednesday's market action, Goldman Sachs' CFO said investors were "shooting first and asking questions later." Then on Thursday, the ECB said it would adjust haircuts on bonds used as collateral for loans to Greek banks and Fed Governor Bullard said the FOMC should consider delaying the end of the QE taper this month to help stem the slide in inflation expectations. Both announcements helped propel a move higher, aided by some better US data late in the week and a round of mostly solid earnings reports.

For the week, the DJIA dropped 1%, the S&P500 fell 1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. The Nasdaq briefly entered correction territory on Wednesday, joined by the Japanese Nikkei Index on Friday, while the S&P500 reached 9.5% off of September's high before rebounding. The market stampede was even more jarring in the bond market, as the US 10-year dove 43 basis points between last Friday's close and the height of the fear on Wednesday before closing back at the key 2.20% level on Friday.

The data out on Wednesday suggested the global slowdown may be finally catching up with the US economy. September US retail sales were negative (-0.3% v -0.1%e; Control Group: -0.2% v +0.4%e), with the key control group, which is used to help calculate GDP, way off expectations. That was the first negative reading for the series since January, when severe winter storms depressed the series temporarily. September PPI producer prices were softer than expected, teeing up a soft CPI reading. The New York Fed's Empire manufacturing index was well under expectations, with the new orders component turning negative.

In Europe, markets tested Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" position after developments in Greece provided an opportunity for attack. Peripheral bonds sold off hard late on Tuesday and into Wednesday after a poll in Greece showed the anti-bailout, anti-euro party Syriza with a 6.5% lead over the governing New Democracy party, well ahead of the 1.4% lead seen in the last round of polls. There is a presidential election in Greece in February, which could be followed by early parliamentary elections. Greece's bailout is officially over in little more than a year, but PM Samaras would like to end it early in order to get ahead of his Syriza opponents, who talk often about getting Greece out of the eurozone. The rush to end 1% bailout government financing and jump into public markets, at a rate more around 7% (or the prospect of Grexit) drove the stampede out of Greek debt and a big drop in the stock market, both of which shocked wider European equities and sent peripheral debt spiking higher.

The Irish government confirmed that it will eliminate its notorious "double Irish" tax structure, just a few weeks after the US Treasury said it would put up roadblocks to tax inversion deals. The first victim of the changes was the $54 billion AbbVie/Shire merger (Shire is headquartered in Ireland). The implosion of the deal was cited as one of the factors deepening the sell-off on Wednesday. Many hedge funds had long Shire/short AbbVie arb trades riding on the merger and Shire shares lost over 20% as the deal unravelled, pummeling the funds and forcing liquidation. Recall that back in July, AbbVie's CEO said the tax benefits were an advantage in the Shire acquisition but were not the central rationale behind the deal. AbbVie will have to pay Shire $1.6 billion to break their engagement.

European governments are wrangling with 2015 budget planning and the process is exposing many of the very stresses that have prevented the Eurozone from escaping the long reach of its crisis. Budgets proposed by France and Italy both abandon pledges to bring deficit-to-GDP ratios into compliance with the 3% treaty limit. Last Friday S&P cut France's sovereign outlook, and on Wednesday Fitch put France's AA+ sovereign rating on negative watch. German Chancellor Merkel said there could be no exceptions to the EU deficit rules even as French President Hollande demanded flexibility, setting up another axis of tension in the EU.

The German government cut its GDP growth forecasts for 2014 (from 1.8% to 1.2%) and 2015 (from 2.0% to 1.3%), bowing to the reality of the European economic slowdown. Berlin insisted it would not change course on policy or austerity despite the worsening outlook. Merkel said that the government would still pursue its balanced budget goals.

The two cases of person-to-person Ebola transmission in the US appeared in Dallas, Texas. Two nurses who helped care for Thomas Duncan, the Liberian man who died last week, tested positive for the disease. There was widespread consternation on reports that the second nurse was cleared to travel to Ohio and back by air while also beginning to feel certain symptoms, including fever, associated with the disease. There was a cascade of Ebola scares in Ohio, San Diego, aboard a Caribbean cruise ship and other locations from people who had unknowingly travelled with the second nurse, although as of now there are still only two Ebola cases in the US, the nurses.

The growing rift in OPEC pummeled oil prices this week, and front-month WTI crude sank below $80 for the first time since June 2012. Persian Gulf states were said to be targeting crude prices around $70 with the aim of making US shale production uneconomical, and were said to be opposing any OPEC production cuts at the November meeting due to fears they could permanently lose market share. Non-Persian Gulf OPEC nations plus Iran pushed for the organization to adopt a production ceiling of 30M bpd. Venezuela called for an emergency OPEC meeting, but its demand largely fell on deaf ears. The IEA Monthly Report trimmed global oil demand growth forecasts for 2014 to their lowest level in five years and also trimmed its 2015 demand forecast. The IEA said any more crude oil price declines would require lower demand or supply cuts.

Wall Street banks had largely good news in their quarterly reports. Goldman Sachs reported excellent third-quarter results and raised its dividend nearly 10%. Revenue was up 25% y/y and net income rose a whopping 60% y/y. Morgan Stanley had similarly strong results. JPMorgan's profits were slightly lower than expected, but compared favorably with the loss seen a year ago. Bank of America either reported income of $168 million or a small loss in its third quarter, depending on how the bank's massive $5.8B DoJ fine for mortgage issues is counted. Shares of Citibank soared after the bank said it would exit stagnant business in 11 countries and modestly topped expectations in its third quarter.

Shares of railroad CSX gained after reports asserted that the company had rebuffed a merger proposal from Canadian Pacific last week. If a deal were reached, the companies would have a combined market value of $62 billion. Big regulatory obstacles stand in the way of a merger - the US Surface Transportation Board has a history of intervening in mergers over fears that the industry would end up with just two North American transcontinental railroad systems.

Overall volatility also whipped around currency trading this week, although there appears to be a slight strengthening trend in the euro as the single currency rises off the record lows seen in the first week of October. EUR/USD came into the week around 1.2610 and after the excitement on Wednesday appeared to be consolidating around the 1.2800 level. Meanwhile, the yen also strengthened, with USD/JPY declining from highs of 107.70 to lows around 105.5 on Thursday, before closing out the week around 106.65.

The Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%, the biggest weekly decline in four months, as the mainland index turned increasingly less immune to the global market rout amid a set of mixed economic figures. September Trade Balance hit a 5-month low of $31B, even though the y/y increase in imports and exports marked 7- and 19-month highs respectively. New Yuan Loans were also more encouraging at CNY857B - a 3-month high and well above the CNY746B consensus. Inflation indicators were still decidedly subdued however, as 1.6% CPI marked a near 5-year low while PPI of -1.8% was down on the year for the 31st consecutive month. Monetary authorities are taking notice with further incremental liquidity injection measures. On Tuesday, the PBoC lowered the offering yield on its 14-day repo by another 10bps to 3.4%. On Friday, the PBoC also announced an additional CNY200B injection directly into the banking system targeting 20 joint-stock Chinese banks. The balance of key China economic data for September along with Q3 GDP will be released early next week, followed by the October HSBC flash manufacturing PMI on tap for Thursday.



Source: Weekly Wrap Up: The Correction That Wasn't

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Good hunting...

I am bullish but my first trade out the gate was short so take it how you will

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First ten bars (5 min chart) were plenty wide enough to make a few short. I was late to work and missed out . Bullish on the day as well, no sense in arguing with price.

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First ten bars (5 min chart) were plenty wide enough to make a few short. I was late to work and missed out . Bullish on the day as well, no sense in arguing with price.

Range day so far... To be expected after the last few strong days.

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No commentary...

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Testing bottom of range/low of day here...

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Broke both TL. I am looking at LVN @ 3940 and AWR @ 3926.25.



Currently long from 52.

EDIT: Exited for a small loss at 50.

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Commentary in video.

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Gap up this msrning, no close, looks like another possible continuation at the moment. We have been trying to get back up into the TL from the 20th.



Break Out Pullback Buy so far, we have cleared the AMN -Low, if we get a pullback would like it to hold support.

VWAP is entering the ADN High at the moment and we could see a bounce there.

Was long earlier from the open, exited around 4000. Flat currently and probably done trading so far.

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Pretty tight bull channel from 12:30 on. Only holding a a pair long from late morning. Will be interesting to see how we close, volume still much lower than the morning session.

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Another continuation gap day with no fill. New channels lines that are probably worthless...



BO pull back buy it was, but on the daily not closing on our high tick has lessen some of the bulls steam. Will have to watch closer as if we start to get more two sided trading we could begin to channel and range more.

Still bullish looking for at least 4041. 4000 is a physc level, so not surprised we came back to test.

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Really narrow last hour as we inch up to the top of the day's trading range. Considered a scalp short but the lack of volume/Friday doesn't give me much confidence. More likely will drift into the close I'd guess. Flat since about 11AM.

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Really narrow last hour as we inch up to the top of the day's trading range. Considered a scalp short but the lack of volume/Friday doesn't give me much confidence. More likely will drift into the close I'd guess. Flat since about 11AM.

I shorted the high back to VWAP, just shorted high again, but have taken a small profit as VPOC shifted down and we were holding support at +1 SD band. I am probably done for the day....

Not much commentary or trading...

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I shorted the high back to VWAP, just shorted high again, but have taken a small profit as VPOC shifted down and we were holding support at +1 SD band. I am probably done for the day....

Not much commentary or trading...

Nice, I had a stop short order in case we broke back down (Al Brooks-ish entry) but last move up to close never hit it.

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Globex has pulled back since the open. Looking for LONG setups today I would like to buy this dip.

That being side I will let the market tell me what it wants to do. Always be ready to pivot or change an idea if you are wrong.

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Hourly is looking like a wedge, potential fail second entry long. We have formed a channel up over the last few days, I believe a break of the channel line we could see a test of the AWN low and lower overall TL. Currently short 1 car @ 32.25. EDIT: Out 35.25 -12 ticks. VPOC shifted and price found support on it, so I covered. I believe we may have some more down to sideways behavior before Wednesday FOMC.



We have hit 4041 the AMR high, we have a lot of monthly levels above, I think we may get a test of the AMN Low again below around 4000. I don't know when. Overall I think the next few days could be like the 10-22 we may be setting up for another potential BO pullback buy.

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Got long yesterday afternoon after scalping around unsuccessfully in the morning session. Scaled out of half the position on the gap up then another half on the first move up this morning. Perhaps finding the top of today's trading range... not sure if i'd bet on another leg up just yet imo. Good luck today gents.

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Hourly We broke the lower Channel line yesterday and then gaped up into the mid line today. We have been above the AWN High at 4052.50. There is also a void in volume at 4040's. If we can stay above the AWN the target would be AWR high @ 4172.50 which would give this rally an ATH. I think whether we reach ATH or not will be a sign of what happens next. No ATH might be bearish, and would mean any high could start to get shorted. Reaching ATH may be enough to convince the bulls the rally is still alive.



Daily we are over the Monthly PP, previous high is 4113.50.



I am noting that we are over the MM of the trading range. We are nearing the channel line from bull rally. Also noting how we found support on the 50 and 100 DMAs. The 20 DMA has crossed the 100 DMA.

Overall today is a spike and range day so far, could see another spike in the afternoon. (Up or down).

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Overall today is a spike and range day so far, could see another spike in the afternoon. (Up or down).

I agree, nice analysis @tturner86 we're at the high of the day now, bulls want BO and leg up, bears are selling betting on a trading range day. I'm only long a partial position now initiated at support 4069~ area.

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Are we looking at the final flag of this rally?



Hourly chart we have bow broken the up trend line from the lows. I know a lot of today's action will be treading water waiting for FOMC. But I have to ask myself if we are seeing this rallies final flag? Either way we will find out at 2 PM. (I find it funny because MotoGP races start at 2 PM.) Just waiting for the red lights to go out.



We are around the AMN high. I find it funny that we got to 1 tick form 4100 and have sold off since. I believe if we get any rally to a high it will be faded hard. Other note is today could be a two bar bear reversal on the day. We will have to wait and see what happens.

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1 Trade overnight caught the spike from BoJ announcement. Flat now as I have meetings and probably will be out most of the day.

My logic behind the trade was it looked like a BO pullback buy (again). Globex opened and traded above Y-Close. So I entered with a 10 PT stop (hard stop to cover if I was wrong while I slept).

Now that we are at ATH everyone is gonna be screaming about BTFD and how it worked again. But as @Big Mike noted, if you look at twitter you can see how everyone's reactions were when we were in the dip.

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ATH. No other commentary.






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Last night's globex session has not traded beneath Friday's close. To me this is looking bullish. I was expecting a gap close on the open of globex but that didn't happen. Overall I am still bullish, but believe we are getting overextended. I think if we get above Friday's high we could see it faded.

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On the hourly, as I expected once we met a new high it was faded quickly. We happen to hit the AWN High box, as well as PW-AWR High. We are currently coiling around the PW-high.



On the daily we opened and hit the swing high and VAH (within a few ticks) from Friday. We have since made a new high and retreated from there. AMN High is 4218.00 AMN Low is 4091.50. We still have the gap from 4103 to 4137. I believe we may see that gap closed and test the AMN low.

We have yet to have a 2% pullback in this rally, if we were to do that soon we would be looking at 4090.25. Which would close the gap and test the AMN low. I also believe this pullback would remove some of the overbought and set us up for another leg.

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@kronie I apologize for the delay.

Below are the indicators I use on my charts.

Gom MP:
anaDailyPivots and anaDailyOHL:

On the 60 min chart I set the GomMP to start every Monday so I get a weekly profile and values.

On the 405 Min chart I set GomMP to each bar, so I can see the profile for each day against the candle.

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Highs faded, low bought. Double Distribution Range Day so far. Everyone have a good evening.

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May have seen the low of the day at 10:15 this morning. I scalped a long, waiting to see if we move up into a trading range or continue back down from the moving average (looking at a 20 EMA on my 5 minute chart).

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Quite possibly @ethand320 we hit the weekly DP and found support along the TL from the low. Yesterday we hit the AWN high and then today we went tested and have now pulled back off of the AWN low. Week is looking like a range so far, so I want to see if we get a leg to a new high.



On the RTH daily we hit the 5 MA at the low. Currently pulled back to PM-Close.



Today on the 5 min looks like a higher low MTR (major trend reversal). We have a trendline break, a test of the low and a large engulfing signal.

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MTR would be a good look. I'm sitting aside until the pictures a bit clearer. Hoping for a strong move (either way) to the close that I can scalp. Flat otherwise.

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The Fed ended QE3 this week, six years after beginning the extraordinary effort to ease monetary condition in the US, and just two days later the Bank of Japan doubled down on its own QE policies. Note that the Fed retained its language on keeping interest rates low for a "considerable time" but dropped its "significant" wording in regards to slack in the US labor market. In addition, the Q3 US GDP topped expectations and grew 3.5%, according to preliminary data. Global equity markets surged higher following the events, with both the DJIA and S&P500 back at all-time closing highs on Friday, the Nikkei up 5% and the Nasdaq at its best level since February 2000. Shanghai saw more modest gains after the flash manufacturing PMI for October gained a bit and Q3 GDP came in at +7.3%. For the week, the DJIA had its biggest gain since early 2013, rising 3.4%, the S&P500 rose 2.7%, and the Nasdaq added another 3.3%.

With progress in the battle for higher inflation slowing, the BoJ caved to pressure and expanded its asset buying program, raising its annual monetary base expansion target to 80T from 60-70T in a tightly split 5-4 decision. The bank cited "weak developments in demand following consumption tax hike and a substantial decline in crude prices". Annual JGB purchases will also rise to 80T from 50T prior, while the average maturity held would rise to 7-10 years from seven prior. Subsequently, the BOJ also lowered its FY14 GDP target to 0.5% from 1.0% and core CPI forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. USD/JPY hit seven-year highs above 112 after the announcement.

The advance look at US third quarter GDP was pretty rosy (+3.5% v +3.0%e), with the headline figure much better than expected. However, analysts were quick to point out that a big gain in government spending was responsible for much of the outperformance, while the fixed investment, exports and imports all declined. Government spending broke a long string of declines and grew at a 10% rate in the quarter. The September durable goods was negative for the second consecutive month, however the decline was much less severe that the one seen in August, and the August data was revised slightly higher.

The Russian Central Bank tried and failed to stem the ongoing collapse of the ruble. USD/RUB has been probing fresh all-time lows day after day, hitting 44 to the dollar on Friday morning, while inflation hit 8% in September and capital outflows are not slowing down. At its scheduled policy meeting on Friday morning, the Bank Rossii raised its main interest rate 150 basis points to 9.5%, three times the expected amount. The ruble strengthened momentarily, with USD/RUB dropping back to 41.25, however it popped back up above 43.00 in no time. In Ukraine news, agreement seems to have been reached in tripartite negotiations with Russia and the EU to secure gas delivery through the winter and resolve some of Ukraine's gas debt.

Crude regained some value in the first half of the week, as WTI rose from $80.60 and topped out at $82.80. At a conference in London, OPEC Secretary General El-Badri said his organization was not seeing any big change in market fundamentals, asserted current prices should not cause alarm and claimed the market was currently oversupplied by about 1 million bpd. His comments corresponded with the top, and WTI was back around $80 by Friday as fresh dollar strength and more central bank easing beat the stuffing out of commodities, including crude. Societe Generale joined several other analysts in forecasting an OPEC production ceiling cut of 1.0-1.5 bpd at the upcoming November 27th meeting.

Hewlett-Packard announced this week that it would enter the 3D printing market in 2016 with a new product that is "10x faster than any product on the market today." Shares of 3D printing names DDD, SSYS and VJET took a big dip on the news. The firm also unveiled an "immersive computing" product with dual touchscreens and a 3D scanner that would work in concert with 3D printers and could reinvent computing.

The fall earnings season is well past the halfway mark, with around four-fifths of the S&P500 having already disclosed results from the July-September period. Data shows that about 80% of these companies have beat EPS expectations. Revenue gains have made modest progress, with the aggregate gains in top-line revenue slightly higher than the average over the last four quarters. Big Oil names, including Exxon and Shell, saw low crude prices cut both ways, as better downstream results made up for worse upstream results. Visa and MasterCard did very well as spending volumes surged. Twitter tanked as investors worried about user growth, while Facebook swooned on weak guidance.

The ECB's asset purchase program is set to begin in November and there has been talk the bank might greatly expand a program that has been widely criticized. The ECB never put a total monetary value on the program, and speculation on how much ABS the bank could buy has focused on remarks made by ECB President Dragh, who said balance sheet would grow back to 2012 levels. In 2012, the ECB's balance sheet was worth 3.0 trillion at its biggest, compared to a figure of 2.0 trillion today, suggesting an ABS purchase plan of up to 1.0 trillion. On Friday a report citing ECB sources suggested that the bank is not targeting a 3.0 trillion balance sheet, in an apparent attempt to tamp down expectations and push governments to continue fiscal reforms. The euro had been slowly strengthening in the first half of the week, in the upper half of the 1.2700 handle, but after the Fed and BoJ moves, the pair dipped below 1.2500 for the first time since August 2012.

The Brazilian Real looked ready for outsized losses following the re-election of President Dilma Rousseff. USD/BRL ended last week at 2.48 and initially tested 2.55 following the election. However, the Real managed to claw its way back as the government started talking about taking a new tack in its second term. Brazil equities have begun coming back a little bit: Petrobras lost nearly 45% between mid-October and early this week, but ticked slightly higher heading into the end of the week.

The Shanghai Composite was swept higher by the surging tide in global risk appetite, ending the week up over 5% at its highest level in 20 months. China's top state-owned banks' Q3 profits were generally in line with expectations, however all of them also saw troubling increases in non-performing loans, in part due to a slump in the property sector. The silver lining for the mainland was a hint from government officials that completion of the delayed Hong Kong-Shanghai trading link has now entered the "final stage." China Stats Bureau will unveil the official October manufacturing PMI figure later tonight, with consensus pointing to a marginal bump to 51.2.

Source: Weekly Wrap Up: Fed Passes the QE Baton to the BoJ

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Range bounce week, sell the AWN high and buy the AWN low. Weekly profile almost a nice bell curve.



Daily we have been holding the closes above the 5MA of the Pascal Channel. Week looks like it has the potential to be an Island Doji (per @srgtroy).

I am still looking for the 2% correction, I believe that may come next week. That would be 4090's. I am not making an predictions, it could easy run up from here. Key is anything is possible and to be open to what happens.

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I was kinda mystified by why the Nasdaq 100 has been so weak for the last week, then I realized... There is a major swing high resistance area from the .com bubble that it is testing here at 4150.

I was expecting continued outperformance by tech, but had not noticed that. That's a tough resistance to break through without getting a dip to get a run at it. Investors are starting to feel some serious vertigo.

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Here is the level I am talking about...


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Triangle forming on the hourly chart for the day so far. I am still looking for a pop into the AWN high. Depending on how price reacts to that should set the tone for the rest of the week. If it is faded hard like last week we could see more range, if it pops and uses the AWN high as support that could set up for a new bull leg in this rally.


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Yesterday saw the slow drift up and final break of the AWN high. Globex faded back to the weekly vpoc and VAL. Open we tested up and down and then finally broke above the AWN high, price has since held above.



On the daily, again the open was near the 5 MA of the Pascal Channel. Also near Monday's VWAP and Yesterday's VAL. Large engulfing candle on the day. I believe we are targeting the 4218.00 AMN high.

During Globex into tomorrow I would like to see us hold Tuesday's close, trading above that will stay bullish (near term). If we start to trade below and stay below I would be bearish. My reason for that is yesterday and today are a breakout of the TR over the last two weeks, and TR BO's are usually faded. If the BO survives that will be really bullish.

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Slow creeping rally from last week, globex held Y-close and we rallied really hard on the open. That rally as a TR BO was faded hard and created a flag on the hourly. Towards the end of the day the weekly VPOC shifted up and held price down.



Daily we blew through the AMN High and then was faded hard. Day ended as a shooting star, below VPOC and VWAP. Todays lows were down to Y-VPOC.


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Globex has been down since the open, although we have now retraced a bit. I am expecting a down day, I am also expecting a range. So I will be looking to fade the highs and buy the lows. First play of the day will be the opening gap, determine whether it will be an exhaustion or continuation gap. The red dotted line is a 2% correction from the high. Again not making any predictions, but just there to show me what one would look like from our current position.

Some news:
The Nikkei Stock Average posted its biggest one-day drop since August after Q3 GDP data showed that Japan had slipped into recession. Following a severe contraction in Q2, GDP fell at an annualized 1.6% pace in the July-September quarter, setting the stage for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike and call a snap election. The Nikkei, which previously surged to seven-year highs following the BOJ’s stimulus measures, closed down 3% at 16,973.80 on the news.

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -3% to 16974. Hong Kong -1.2% to 23797. China -0.2% to 2475. India +0.5% to 28178.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.4%.
Futures at 6:20: Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -0.6% to $75.39. Gold +0.1% to $1186.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.3%

Today's economic calendar:
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:15 Industrial Production

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