I have Friday Sept 19 on my calendar as the expiration day for the NQ and ES September contracts. Is that right? Assuming Sept 19 is correct, do you typically rollover a week before the contract expires?
I used to roll over the Friday before. But after talking with @srgtroy I decided to roll over on the Monday of the exp week. I just didn't roll Monday morning before I started trading.
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Nothing like missing the best two days of the season so far
Anyway, after struggling with ETH vs RTH, I have realized that the most accurate chart to use for fibs on index charts is in fact, the index itself. The positive side of this is increased accuracy. The negative side is the levels are not exactly the same as futures prices. I will have to figure out the best way to work with that. At any rate, from now on, I will be using the NDX chart.
Levels for tomorrow:
Key support at 4053 && 4048.
Key resistance at 4086.10 && 4089.27-4091.62 if we get that high...
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4070 MM still resistance above. Hanging on the 20 SMA at the moment. I have a tighter TL I drew from recent lows (I don't think it will matter, but you never know.) I believe we will continue to range and form a wedge/flag towards the longer TL. Once it hits that could cause a rally to test new highs.
I am gonna say this now because I just want it noted, but I don't know how likely. If a flag forms it could be a final flag. That would lead to a breakout rally, reversal, and correction. Even if that did happen we are talking weeks/months. That is just what I see at the moment. That could change with additional price action over the week. You can't really call a final flag in the future, it tends to be a hindsight thing. The last flag in a trend becomes the final flag.
Lots of news and events this week could lead the market in a different direction.
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We are back at the top of the TR for Sept at the moment. Tomorrow is poised to see a breakout of this range to a new high. Key at this point is whether the high will hold or be faded (if it is a real TR you sell the highs).
We have backfilled and set multiple levels of support, we could have a sell and then bounce higher.
Anyone tomorrow should be one of the best trading days so far with the Scottish vote + BABA IPO.
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The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: NDAQ) today announced changes to the methodology of the NASDAQ-100 Index® (Nasdaq:NDX).
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The 5 Minute NDX chart shows two of the fibs mentioned above. The key resistance fib (green) of 4121.97 which I prefer was not touched, but we got close. That was a bit befuddling as these fibs are precise and I would've expected a touch. So I kept thinking we might bounce and go up and missed out on the selloff (but at least did not go long).
I had forgotten, of course, to put the regular resistance fib (blue line) at 4111.46 on my chart until it was too late. That would've provided a more useful level, but still, price gyrated around it until it decided to go down and I prefer greater precision.
Since price did not reach the 4122 key resistance level, I was mystified as to why it stopped where it did. What was there? I decided to go back and check the RTH NQ chart. On the RTH NQ chart, the equivalent of the NDX's Key Resistance was at 4111.5. Here's how that played out today:
I am currently LONG 4076.50 looking for the gap to close. It may close before the open which if it did is a strong bullish signal. If it doesn't and opens as a gap down we could see the close in the first hour of the session. I believe that the 4100 will be a strong resistance and looking to see how price reacts off it.
UPDATE: Exited at 4079.50. Price has slide back down the profile and gap is widening. Could see good size gap down on open.
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Strong rejection of the highs for the week so far. Trading range top it looks like. Opening gap down appears to be a continuation gap so far (unless it closes later in the day). I have to check the charts but I believe this is the first Bear Continuation Gap in quite a bit of time. We are currently at the AWN low box. If bears have control they will take it below and hold it.
Targets below are AWR low of 4012.50. Currently targeting Previous Week Low of 4045.00.
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The DJIA and the S&P500 saw fresh all-time highs on Thursday and most global markets (with the glaring exceptions of Shanghai and the Hang Seng) closed on Friday just off their highs of the week. As equities gained ground the 10-year UST yield saw ten-week highs around 2.66% on Thursday. With risk assets on fire, many commentators speculated whether this week's monster Alibaba IPO could be a symbolic top in markets, while others looked at the ominously weak inaugural TLTRO auction as a sign of very deep dysfunction in Europe. Meanwhile, China's seemingly benign downturn has taken a turn for the worse, prompting a more direct response on the part of the PBoC, which unveiled a CNY500 billion standing liquidity facility (SLF) provision for the nation's top five banks. Scotland gave London a scare as polls showed the independence referendum was too close to call, but ultimately voted to remain in the UK. For the week, the DJIA rose 1.7%, the S&P500 gained 1.3% and the Nasdaq added 0.3%.
Heading into Wednesday's Fed decision, there were expectations that the FOMC might drop the "extended period" language in order to prepare the way for its exit strategy. Instead, Fed Chair Yellen again highlighted in her press conference that the Fed's language has always been conditional and data-dependent, and said the Fed's views about the outlook had not changed much, which meant that there was little need to adjust the wording. While the Fed statement and Yellen's press conference could hardly be called hawkish, changes to the dot chart clearly suggested a greater willingness to tighten policy in 2015 and 2016. Another surprise was the release of a general outline of principles for the process of normalizing policy, which included the statement that interest on excess reserves (IOER) would be the primary tool for moving the fed funds rate and overnight repos would be a secondary tool for moving rates.
On Thursday the ECB disclosed lenders borrowed a mere €82.6 billion in four-year loans from its new TLTRO facility, falling well short of expectations for take-up of €133 billion. Bond yields dropped and the euro slipped on speculation that the very weak showing in the centerpiece of the ECB's big June effort at policy action increased the likelihood of the central bank launching more measure next year to stave off deflation, possibly including full-fledged QE (aka sovereign bond buying). German bunds fell to fresh all-time lows around 1.04% on Friday.
Scottish voters rejected independence (45% for Yes vs 55% for No) on Thursday, choosing to remain part of the United Kingdom. Alex Salmond, one of the driving figures behind the anti-UK forces, resigned as Scotland's First Minister following the defeat. UK Chancellor Osborne had said that if Scotland voted "No," the UK government would devolve more powers to Scotland, powers which could amount to effective home rule. UK PM Cameron is expected to make an announcement soon regarding an overhaul of local governance in Britain, while the Labor Party is calling for a constitutional convention.
The Ukraine Parliament passed a new law granting rebel-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine self-rule and offering amnesty to anti-government fighters. The measures are in line with the ceasefire agreement signed by President Poroshenko in early September. Meanwhile, fighting continued all week in hotspots in the east, most notably as rebels tried to force government forces away from the Donetsk airport. There were also reports of shelling and troop movements around Mariupol. Poroshenko was in Washington this week, asking for financial and military aid for his country. "We cannot fight a war with blankets," he said in his address to a joint session of Congress.
The Alibaba IPO frenzy dominated headlines later in the week. It priced at $68 on Thursday and opened at $92.70 on Friday morning. Shares quickly jumped to $99.70 before settling back to about $92 in afternoon trading. In the IPO the company raised $21.8 billion, for the largest IPO in the history of the US stock market, and that figure could rise to $25 billion with overallotments. Alibaba's total market cap is around $228 billion, making it bigger than Amazon, Intel, or IBM. Yahoo stands to make more than $10 billion on the IPO, as it plans to sell around 5% of its 22.4% stake. Japanese wireless carrier Softbank owns more than a third of the shares, a stake worth over $70 billion.
Sales of the new Apple iPhone began on Friday, although some of the shine was taken off possible volumes by a report that the new model may not be sold in China this year. The story said Apple failed to reach an agreement with the country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology this month, which might push the launch of the iPhone 6 in China to 2015. In addition, there were reports that Apple would unveil two new iPad models and release of OS X Yosemite on October 21st.
Steel names gained on strong guidance ahead of earnings season out of US Steel, Nucor and Steel Dynamics. US Steel said it would not proceed with a planned expansion at its iron ore pellet operations in Minnesota. As a result, US Steel said to expect Q3 results significantly higher than current consensus EPS estimates. Nucor offered very strong Q3 results and also cited good market conditions. Steel Dynamics said strength in automotive, manufacturing, energy, and construction markets continue to improve.
Oracle CEO Larry Ellison stepped out of the CEO role, naming his two top executives, President Mark Hurd and CFO Safra Catz, to co-CEO roles. The announcement called some volatility in the stock, but on the conference call Ellison indicated the promotion was essentially in name only as he will remain at the company as chairman and CTO and said the three of them "will keep doing what we have been doing." Oracle's Q1 EPS and revenue missed expectations once again, and guidance for the second quarter wasn't great.
Shares of Rite Aid tanked 17% this week after the firm cut its FY15 forecast. Ironically, Rite Aid reported a second quarter profit nearly four times higher than a year ago on decent comps. However, the company warned it would see a decline in the pharmacy margin in the second half of the fiscal year.
On the M&A front, Dutch brewer Heineken was approached by SABMiller about a potential takeover, however Heineken's controlling family, which owns just over 50%, said it wanted to keep the company independent. There were separate reports that AB InBev was discussing financing options for a bid for SABMiller, although later reports said the financing was not for an SABMiller buy. Microsoft confirmed that it will pay $2.5 billion to acquire gaming developer Mojang, the firm behind the wildly popular game Minecraft. Rackspace shares cratered after it announced it had ended a months-long strategic review process and concluded it would remain independent.
In FX, the euro was stable though the first half of the week, with EUR/USD range bound around 1.2900. The very unsatisfactory TLTRO auction slammed the single currency down to 1.2835. Heading into the last days ahead of the Scotland vote, polls tilted toward the no vote, helping to strengthen the pound. Lows of the week in GBP/USD were around 1.6160, but by close of voting on Thursday the pair had moved up to 1.6520.
China's August economic data was worrying: industrial output growth slumped to its lowest rate in nearly six years, as electricity generation fell for the first time since 2009. Retail sales also slowed to a four-month low, while fixed asset investment contracted by 14% y/y to its lowest level in 2.5 years. Later in the week, August property prices registered a fourth consecutive m/m decline in 68 out of 70 cities. The PBoC's CNY500 billion SLF liquidity was a direct response to the data, and was estimated as the equivalent of a 50bps cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio. The following day, PBoC also lowered the offered 14-day repo yield by 20bps to 3.50% - the lowest level since early 2011 - in a bid to further boost liquidity. Analysts have differed on the implications of these actions, as some suggested these reflect a more pronounced easing bias while others saw a diminished likelihood of an across-the-board reserve requirement cut. For the week, the Shanghai Composite closed down 0.1%.
- On Friday, the Japan cabinet office cut its September monthly economic assessment for the first time in 5 months. Officials pointed to soft private consumption, which remains weighed down by the April sales tax increase with an added headwind of rough weather over the past several weeks. On Friday, Japan PM Abe promised to continue with structural reforms, while also hinting at another corporate tax rate cut in 2015. Broad-based post-FOMC US dollar strength throughout the week pushed the USD/JPY exchange rate by another 2 big figures above the ¥109 level, helping Nikkei225 to a 2.4% weekly gain.
Key for now is if/where the BTFDers will pick a bottom. We have a third touch of the trendline, we have the 50 SMA below and another longer time frame trendline below that.
There is support in the near area 4040 low, there is also resistance above 4060, 4070 MM.
Open doesn't appear to be a gap. Looking for first 5 MIN bar and price action to give some ideas for the day.
Globex H - 4053.75
Globex L - 4032.75
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Bear gap open closed, price has since found resistance on the AWN Low At 4059.00. Targets below are low at 4034.25. AWR Low 4012.50. Low 4000's appear to be the bottom of the range and should be bought, 4100's appear to be the top and sold. Breakouts of ranges should be faded. I would like to see another FBO to the downside that is bought back into a rally. Could take a few days.
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Overall Doji day, lots of range play. AWN Low / CP confluence proved to be a strong resistance. I still believe we will touch the AWR low and setup for a rally. Next rally will be a tale as to the future of this market. (Higher or lower high.)
I'm enjoying the volume profile superimposed on the daily bars. It gives a good picture of what's happening during the day, in addition to the price movement.
Bob.
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Just posting what i see presently. I have put enough lines to satisfy quite a few traders: Range analysis, trendlines analysis, Supply/Demand zones and weekly volume profile analysis.
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Inside bar within the range and balance of yesterday. Monday's, Tuesday's, and Today's daily bars have created a triangle / flag. We have had multiple pushes down and up. This is a coiling/condensing of the market which should cause a large BO in the near future (Later today or Thurs/Friday). Because a triangle is a tight trading range I would like to see a FBO to the downside that is quickly bought back into a rally to the highs. The reason is BO's of trading ranges fail 80% of the time (ala Al Brooks). So if we have a BO to the upside it could be quickly squashed. Although bears have been slaughtered in this bull market, I think recent market activity may have brought a few out to play.
**This also depends on how today closes, if it is outside and up then that can negate everything above. As with everything trading related it works until it doesn't
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So we got the BO yesterday. Current upper target is the AWE High at 4103.50. We need a high higher than 4113.50 from last week. I would expect that today or tomorrow. I also expect that high to be sold as well and start the next down leg in this TR.
Globex L- 4072.75
Globex H- 4088.50
Overnight session was down from the Y-Close. Y-Close is 4087 and price is currently trading in the 4070's. I would expect a 15-17 PT gap down. With the context of yesterdays rally I would expect this gap to exhaust and close after the open. (Barring some event).
First order of business for me is gap play. Then determine if we will continue trend or range.
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Looks like my original idea of a BO of the triangle has held. I will be the first to admit I got suckered into the BO and the gap this morning looking long. Luckily I saw the pivot off the DP and exited. Then after a few bars found a pullback and got short. Monthly low is 4004.25 we could be looking for that. If today closes down that would lock in a lower high in the TR.
I do believe that there are buyers below.
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Good job.. It really bothers me when I hear traders here who are respected mention wide stops and scaling into positions(averging down is part of it). Those strategies are for those who are very experienced and have large accounts to enable a large loss here and there which WILL HAPPEN!
I cannot tell you the number of new traders who I know who have averaged down with huge stops only to blow an account or two,
Risk management is Job #1 for most retail traders.
Thanks for reenforcing this!
Wolf
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I have put some ranges on my chart that seem to make sense. What do you think?
See this ab=cd ? We are currently at the bottom of a huge range. The logic of auction says to fade this level but with such a big session today it's weird to think that price might revert back to the top.
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AWR low @ 4019.50 and AMN low @ 4032.75 are solid resistance above, I am looking for a bounce up into that resistance that is shorted to a new low. Price appears to be opening no gap (maybe a few points). We have hit the AWR Low in the Globex session, so we may not come back up after the open. My first order of business will be seeing how that affects the open.
Globex H- 4020.75
Globex L- 4001.75
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NQ has gone parabolic finally breaking the AWR low and AMN low. The yellow box is the initial breakout, you can see that each bull bar opens and closes outside of the previous bar. This signals strong buying pressure. Also each bar is increasing in size.
I wasn't here so I did not catch it. Open we bounced between ADN boxes and then finally turned up.
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Globex open saw a large sell off creating a +40 PT gap down on the open. We have been Always in Long since the open to fill the gap. First stop was Y-VPOC at 4017 then Y-VWAP at 4026. As @srgtroy would say we have been twerking around the D-PP.
We also appear to be in a bear channel since the 19th and are nearing the top of that channel.
Weekly PP is 4026.25.
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I believe we may have found the bottom for now with the test of the trendline on daily. I am looking long, I believe this is a flag on the daily that will BO to the long side.
But I am cautious of the Weekly PP and AMN Low that we struggled to close above today.
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We are at the bottom of the bear channel, also every down day sees a rally back towards the top, so I would expect to see us rally back towards 4030 tomorrow.
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Looking now I believe that the channel could break down touch the 100 SMA and then snap back into a rally. I believe that a BO to the downside would trigger a channel reversal and could break the bear channel we are in.
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We have now rallied back into the channel. Each break out of the channel has saw a large over-correction in the opposite direction. So, I am looking for 4050's. But there are areas before that, that could be resistance.
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After waiting quite awhile for further clearance from my friends at the freemasons, I can finally resume posting with a bit of an upgrade:
p.s. -- I believe the greenlight was given to disclose these levels at this detail only after direct intervention by @Big Mike with the powers that be so a big thanks to him for that...
I will try to post these levels THE NIGHT BEFORE each trading day. Will try for each day but may not get there. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 Index itself (NDX) will be used, although actual NQ levels may come later.
Legend for the chart:
Thick Cyan Line -- Major Weekly Level/Long Bias
Thick Fuchsia Line -- Major Weekly Level/Short Bias
Thin Cyan Line -- Minor Weekly Level/Long Bias
Thin Fuchsia Line -- Minor Weekly Level/Short Bias
Thick Green Line -- Major Daily Level/Long Bias
Thick Red Line -- Major Daily Level/Short Bias
Thin Blue Line -- police level, kidding!, Minor Daily Level, Long Bias
Thin Orange Line -- Minor Daily Level, Short Bias
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Back down into the channel so far. Daily ADR low is 3990 (My current target). But we are in the Weekly PP boxes and near PW-VWAP. We are also near the AMN low at 3993. So there are some HTF players defending levels.
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We've held onto the channel line. Tomorrow will be the test, will we crash back into the channel (3970's), or will be hold support for a rally back to the top of the September TR?
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The contrast between US economic strength and Europe's deflationary headache got even stronger this week. On Thursday, ECB President Draghi outlined his asset purchase plan but left investors with the impression that the program would be too little to beat deflation. Draghi said the ECB's balance sheet would grow back toward €3 trillion compared to near €2 trillion today, suggesting that the potential universe of covered bond and ABS purchases is up to €1 trillion. Meanwhile, the September non-farm payrolls was +248K complemented by a combined 69K in upward revisions to July and August data. The unemployment rate declined from 6.1% in August to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008. The only sour notes were that wage growth was still pretty weak and labor force participation slipped lower. In China, the Occupy Central protest movement took over downtown Hong Kong, driving big sequential declines on the Hang Seng early in the week. The bourse closed for two days of holidays, fell 2% in early trading on Friday and then closed higher. There are real fears that Beijing will not tolerate much more unrest in the city. For the week, the DJIA slipped 0.6%, the S&P500 lost 0.8% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.
On Thursday, European stocks suffered their steepest one-day decline in more than a year after the ECB delivered mixed messages on its plans for asset purchases. The central bank indicated that the ABS and covered bond purchase program could rise to as much as one trillion euros over two years, but failed to detail how much it might start with. President Draghi said that the bank would make provisions in the ABS program to include some bonds from Cyprus and Greece that are below investment grade and monitor the impact of the ABS and TLTRO programs on inflation expectations in the "coming months, not coming years". The statements suggest that possibility of sovereign bonds purchases - the ECB's big, controversial policy bazooka - are off the table for quite some time. After the policy decision, reports indicated significant opposition to the ABS program (much less full blown QE). Hans Werner Sinn, head of Germany's hawkish IFO Institute, said asset purchase program was outside the ECB's mandate and called on the German government to counter the move. Reports suggest at least three ECB governors oppose parts or all of the ABS program: Germany's Schaeuble is long on the record opposing any form of ECB asset purchases, Austria's Nowotny is said to also oppose the program, while France's Noyer opposes the use of external brokers to buy securities. In the wake of the ECB statement, the stocks in Italy plummeted 3.9%, Spain declined 3.1%, France dropped 2.8%, Germany fell 2.0%, and the Euro Stoxx dropped 2.4%.
In an echo of protest movement seen over recent years in Egypt, Ukraine, Iran and elsewhere, students and citizens in Hong Kong occupied public space last weekend and began agitating for free elections after Beijing demanded that it be able to vet candidates for local office. The protests drew a heavy-handed initial response from the police, who pepper sprayed crowds on Sunday. Students refused to leave parts of downtown and demanded that Hong Kong Chief Leung Chun-ying resign by Thursday. Leung refused, although he permitted negotiations between the students and the police. Beijing has been largely silent on the protests, however there were vague reports of troop movements near the city and a thinly sourced report that it had given Hong Kong leaders notice to resolve the problem quickly or have the Chinese military do it for them. There was another round of violence between the students and locals opposed to the protests (or paid thugs, alternatively) on Friday, but as of writing neither side seemed to have the upper hand.
Front-month WTI crude has moved lower all summer, declining from the ISIS/Ukraine highs above $104/barrel in June to just shy of 2014 lows around $88 on Thursday. The rise of the dollar is the prime candidate behind crude weakness, however other news out this week also contributed to the move below $90. There were reports Saudi Aramco lowered crude prices for November delivery by $1/barrel, and also cut prices for certain natural gas deliveries. This followed reports earlier in September that Saudi Arabia trimmed production levels in the past month. There has been talk among analysts that OPEC members are gearing up for a price war. OPEC has declined to call an extraordinary meeting to discuss the situation, and its next meeting is scheduled for November 27th. Brent crude slid to $92/barrel, more than 20% below its June peak.
Ebola arrived in the United States this week. The CDC confirmed the first case of Ebola was diagnosed Texas, where a traveler from Liberia has been hospitalized after spending time in his home country aiding Ebola victims. On Friday, Texas health officials said they were monitoring 50 people that the man had come in contact with and that 10 of them might be at high risk for contracting Ebola. Airline, cruise ship and hotel shares have been under pressure this week on the news.
Chrysler and GM reported September vehicle sales up 18.8% y/y and 19.4% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile Ford said its sales fell 2.7% y/y due to lower fleet sales and a planned pull-back on sales of its 2014 F-150 pickup as it prepares to introduce the 2015 all-aluminum F-150. The industry's SAAR annualized sales rate cooled off to 16.43 million from the torrid 17.53 million pace in August.
Salix Pharmaceuticals called off a merger deal with Italy's Cosmo Pharmaceuticals that was structured as a tax inversion. This comes just a week after the US Treasury took a series of steps to curb such deals and prevent companies from avoiding taxes. Since the Treasury announcement, the company faced pressure from top shareholders to cancel the deal and sell itself, possibly to Allergan or Actavis. Tibco Software agreed to sell itself to Vista Equity Partners for $4.3 billion, or $24/share. The sale comes after a difficult year for Tibco, which has faced declining profits and pressure from an activist investor to sell.
The rise of the dollar continued unabated this week, to the detriment of nearly every other global currency. Between disappointment with Draghi's ABS plan and the very strong September US jobs report, nothing appears able to stop the greenback, and many analysts have started discussing a secular reversal in the 30-year downtrend in the dollar. EUR/USD tried to retake its 200-day moving average on Monday around 1.2710, and then broke to 1.2570 after the advance September Eurozone CPI reading slid to 0.3% v 0.3%e and the core reading came in lower than expected, 0.7% v 0.9%e. USD/JPY rose to 110.10 as of Tuesday, prompting a pullback to 108 later in the week. The pair retested 109.90 on Friday in the wake of the September US jobs report.
China mainland markets were on holiday for much of the week, however the Stats Bureau still put out the official PMI figures for September. The manufacturing sector reading remained just above the threshold of expansion at 51.1, a decimal better than consensus and unchanged from the prior month. New orders and Employment components marked notable declines, prompting government economists to assess the overall business sentiment as weak. Non-manufacturing PMI was also somewhat of a disappointment, falling to an 8-month low of 54.0 from 54.4 on marked deceleration in Services, Input Prices, and Inventories components. The Shanghai Composite returns for trading on Wednesday as Beijing prepares for the start of the party Plenum on October 20th that will hopefully yield a verdict on the future of PBoC Gov Zhou.
I am still leaning bearish tomorrow. We closed below the 20 DSMA & 50 DSMA. Closed below the VWAP and the bear channel line of the last week, as well as the bull TL from May.
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- I do not know what color "Fuchsia" is. Really, I don't know which lines those are....
- At first I thought that the darker lines at each tick were part of the fibs; I see they aren't now, they're just part of the grid, but visually they are still distracting (well, to me, anyway.)
- Substantively, will you be discussing the basis for calculating the fib levels -- I have found there are always many points to use, and fibs have always been difficult for me because of that.
However, judging for myself, it does look pretty good. Thanks, and I would love to see this as a standard, recurring feature here.
Bob.
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Market rolled over today, back down into our channel. The 3970 was hit in the first 5 mins. Big down in Globex and now big down on the day. Looking to see if we will test the bottom of the channel. ADR is 3951, would expect that today.
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Good call on the fuchsia lines. Currently, there are no fuchsia (magenta) lines on the chart, but there may be in the future so I added it to the legend.
Regarding, the darker lines, I think you are right. I will take (most) of them off. Sometimes if a single fib lines up with a key psychological level, that provides extra support, but I think I will minimize their use unless absolutely important. Thanks for the suggestion!
Regarding the calculations themselves, honestly, it has literally taken me years of playing with fibs to figure out my current method of calculations, which is not necessarily how others do it, and it is something I am still improving, so for now, I am going to reserve that part of the "equation". Nevertheless, whether I calculate them or I show someone how I calculate them, the end result will be the same -- the actual levels -- and those I intend to publish here as much as possible AND in advance. I consider the current phase of the fib report to be a "proof of concept" one, which is why using the NDX is great, because it is a pure "lab" sample and not affected in anyway by issues like "contract rollover".
If and when the process is validated and nailed down with the NDX, then hopefully, we can move on to the actual futures levels and to calculating levels for other intstruments, perhaps in a seperate thread, and possibly even the methodology.
That is not to say that these levels can't be used now. Slap them on a 5 min real-time chart of the NDX and they are very effective. There is even a way to use them on non-time based charts (even though NDX data is basically time-based) which I will discuss in the near future.
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It would be very interesting to see if you could take one of these levels and do a mark up of your risk defined with targets similar to how Terry did it here
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Excellent suggestion. I was thinking maybe I should add at least a little commentary in terms of how i see this, although I don't want to completely detract from the levels. They are objective whereas commentary would be subjective. Ultimately, price action around the levels simply has to be watched and evaluated. That said, the most important confluence to me right now is 54.69 to 49.76. If price is unable to break that, then I simply target the next confluence above at 78.36-86.04. If price does break below 49.76 I am looking at (at least) 29.16 and possibly the cyan line at 3909.
In terms of risk/reward, I will try and develop a more specific guideline as we watch this develop. For now, I would say that risk is for price to stay within the boundaries of any particular confluence give or take a tick or two, and reward is the distance to the next key level (red/green/cyan/fuchsia) in general and the next confluence in particular.
Maybe I will try to mark up the next chart I post. Thanks for the suggestion and regards to ItchyLarry
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Lol. From his photos, I'm surprised Larry got out of bed. Here's some more Fib fun to ponder (not endorsing this stuff by the way, but an interesting read at least:
We sold off and got the lower channel line. I bought 3934.25 and sold at 3954. It was a double bottom from the other day and last time we were at these prices the day closed in the 80's. I exited early because we were near the top of the range for the day, had a VPOC shift up and thought that we could range more. Since then it appears to be trying to trend up.
Yeehaw! Double bottom + FOMC saw a large rally through the top of the channel. We closed the weekly gap. Looking to see if today or tomorrow we make a higher or lower high. If we follow the channel we should fall back into the channel, if the double bottom became a channel reversal we could be on our new bull leg back towards the top of Sept TR and possible new ATHs!!!!
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54-49 confluence held for the first hour or so, then price broke below, but reversed back above, with one 5 min bar breaking through the whole confluence. Upward drift to the next confluence in anticipation of Fed Minutes. Break of that confluence on release of Fed Minutes. Price shot straight up to next confluence, ricocheted between it and the weekly level (cyan). Nice dip buy there on support which took it higher.
Blue cyan arrow shows on a weekly levels basis the move from the minor level up to the major level. Curious to know, would this have been helpful in your trading? Sound off...
p.s. -- On first glance, the major weekly level at 4027 seems like a nice candidate for a retest (maybe tomorrow) before we move further up.
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Really, I don't know which lines those are....