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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction


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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction

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  #1 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013

Hello my esteemed colleagues,

It has been a year since I started my challenging career trading the ES, I lost approximately $2000 in tuition fees, but nevertheless I am as determined as Winston Churchill. I learned a ton in my first year, and am eager to continue learning.


You can read my first posts here, , I was really clueless.

The purpose of this thread is gather advice and guidance as to whether I am in the right position as an amateur trader one year into my career. I remember Mike saying somewhere that it takes the average trader 24 months.


I desire some of the forum greats such as @tigertrader, @Fat Tails, @kevinkdog, @josh, @PandaWarrior, @kbit, @bobwest, @mfbreakout, @ to kindly spend some of their precious time towards providing a little guidance.

What I have achieved


My achievements have not been monetary of course, but more so educational.

Read and learned the ACD method ( Did n’t find it too reliable )

Traded the ES (either live or demo) nearly every single day over the past year

Experience both consecutive losses and consecutive gains.

Learned how to identify trend days



Short term goals


1. Implement my new trading model I developed (Expectancy = 0.36) by December

2. Continue learning how to backtest → perhaps invest in Tradestation or esignal.

3. Continue learning Market Profile (I’m on chapter 4)

4. Read the book on Price Action

5. Subscribe to a signal provider on Zulutrade (no I promise I wont become a copytrader→ just something to bring in some revenue)

6. Learn the basics of forex trading since I will be subscribing to a forex algo.

7. Determine honestly, what style of trading I am most suited for

8. Persuade Big Mike to remove me from his ignore list ( I still have no clue why I am on there)→ so I can participate in most of the threads on this fine forum. I have nothing against him or anyone on this forum, and if I said anything to offend anyone please accept my sincere apologies.

9. Start a trading journal

10. Wake up earlier

11. Spend more time trading



Long term goals

1. Learn coding ( Easylanguage or C#?)

2. Publish an algo on Collective 2.

3. Work at a Prop Firm.

4. Who knows what else



I would to thank those that have supported me, I consider this to be more than a forum, it is my workplace as well as my university.

I WILL MAKE IT!

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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
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One year in I'd imagine you have your own beliefs about markets formed. If so, you are the best person to ask what to do next. Maybe I understood your post wrong and you still haven't found something to work with?

Markets change all the time, so there is no one path to follow. If you think you've built a solid foundation then focus on your best trading ideas and see if you can make money consistently.

Reading through your short-term goals, it seems you have a quite unique trading profile with a mix of markets and techniques. Again, unless you prove to yourself your ideas are working or not, no-one will be able to change your opinion. I'm sure you've heard that it's better to stay focused on one method, but it must be your own decision in the end.

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 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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@budfox

my most profound piece of advice is not to look at the market in the same way as everyone else looks at it. do not read the same books on trading as everyone else, and certainly do not trade as everyone else trades. if your inputs are the same as everyone else's, you will have no advantage as a trader and your results will be the same as everyone else's. you will operate with the same heuristics and have the same predictable biases that emanate from those heuristics. and, do not determine honestly, what style of trading I am most suited for! instead determine what style of trading is suited for making the greatest amount of profit under the current regime and market conditions.

OBSERVE the market and its attendant price action. markets are complex adaptive systems, which by nature are non-linear and obscure cause and effect. therefore, it is impossible to predict what is going to take place in the future. nevertheless, when you see something occur you are going to create a narrative to explain what happened -and you will probably be mistaken. cnbc does this on a daily basis and is wrong on a daily basis. so, the trick is to see the market, for what it is, and not what it appears to be. this skill takes years and years of screen time observing the markets, and one's approach to trading has to be constantly updated and modified as the markets change. this is why you will not find the answer on how to profit from trading in any book. as soon as it would be uncovered it would be obsolete.

i personally, never read books on trading. instead, i like to read books on decision and game theory. this helps me to be aware of the factors that distort my judgement. one must be able to eliminate the deleterious effects of emotion, stress, and bias in the decision process otherwise one can throw all one's methodology out the window.

from a previous post of mine...

aside from being under capitalized, the biggest mistake aspiring traders make, is underestimating the amount of knowledge and deliberate practice required to become a successful full-time trader. for some reason, they assume trading is different from other performance related activities, and that they can read a book and step right into the market and make money. unfortunately, this is about as naive as someone sitting down at a table with poker pros, after playing a only few hands online, and thinking they're going to be competitive. ironically, the market and vegas have more in common than one might think. they were both created by the top-feeders for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the bottom feeders. the only real difference is in vegas you get free drinks. the narratives that are used to sell the dream are the same; and like all good narratives, there is just enough of a ring of truth to them, to make them believable. inevitably, they always appeal to our intellect and emotions, yet they only exist for the benefit of those who would like to take our money. understand this very salient fact and you will stand a much better chance of succeeding.
  • know you have enough Money- if you don't have enough capital to begin with, you're finished, before you started.
  • know the Market- the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success- if you don't believe that a comprehensive knowledge of the market is important, you're well on your way out the door.
  • know your Methodology-it's taken me 8 years of trading electronically (after having been a professional trader for +30 years, to reach my current level of competency. if you truly believe, that you can compete against the most sophisticated traders in the world by drawing trend-lines and channels and employing anachronistic trading methods, you're sadly mistaken, and soon to be broke.
  • know how to Make-Money- there is a big difference between knowing how to trade, and knowing how to make money. the latter is about doing whatever it takes to get the job done. it's about trading the right markets, in the right ways, for the right reasons. in other words, you don't trade a market , because you like its trading hours; you choose to trade a market because its the best vehicle for making the most money. and you trade it in the way, that affords you the highest probability of making the most money.
  • know yourself & your Mentality - there are a variety of different stressors, emotional/personality flaws, and biases, that effect a trader's ability to make objective decisions. be smart enough to know you're dumb enough, that you don't know everything. The successful performances are those that really aren't about you- don't let who you are get in the way of your trading success.
one last general piece of advice - consider the source of the information you seek. as daniel patrick moynihan once said, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but not their own facts. most books geared to the retail trader, are out-dated, irrelevant, ineffectual and misguided - and quite frankly, so are most of the posts you read on this forum. once again, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but only a few posters on this site are sufficiently qualified to render one. you can also choose to try to show everybody how much faith you have in your own methodology, even if it's never been profitable, or you can use the forum to learn from others who have actually been successful. if you really want to learn, find ways to assess information systematically and surround yourself with experienced, knowledgeable, and proven people, who will challenge your opinions; even when they tell you something you don't want to hear..

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FalseProphets
Toledo, OH
 
 
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This should be required reading for everyone who intends to create the next vendor thread and ask others' opinions on it. Hint: if you didn't become rich from reading the last 500 vendor posts, your shiny new finding won't get you there either.
Sadly, it wont register with those the message is most intended for. If I could monetize every time some one starts a post with "I bit the bullet and bought.....".




tigertrader View Post
@budfox

my most profound piece of advice is not to look at the market in the same way as everyone else looks at it. do not read the same books on trading as everyone else, and certainly do not trade as everyone else trades. if your inputs are the same as everyone else's, you will have no advantage as a trader and your results will be the same as everyone else's. you will operate with the same heuristics and have the same predictable biases that emanate from those heuristics. and, do not determine honestly, what style of trading I am most suited for! instead determine what style of trading is suited for making the greatest amount of profit under the current regime and market conditions.

OBSERVE the market and its attendant price action. markets are complex adaptive systems, which by nature are non-linear and obscure cause and effect. therefore, it is impossible to predict what is going to take place in the future. nevertheless, when you see something occur you are going to create a narrative to explain what happened -and you will probably be mistaken. cnbc does this on a daily basis and is wrong on a daily basis. so, the trick is to see the market, for what it is, and not what it appears to be. this skill takes years and years of screen time observing the markets, and one's approach to trading has to be constantly updated and modified as the markets change. this is why you will not find the answer on how to profit from trading in any book. as soon as it would be uncovered it would be obsolete.

i personally, never read books on trading. instead, i like to read books on decision and game theory. this helps me to be aware of the factors that distort my judgement. one must be able to eliminate the deleterious effects of emotion, stress, and bias in the decision process otherwise one can throw all one's methodology out the window.

from a previous post of mine...

aside from being under capitalized, the biggest mistake aspiring traders make, is underestimating the amount of knowledge and deliberate practice required to become a successful full-time trader. for some reason, they assume trading is different from other performance related activities, and that they can read a book and step right into the market and make money. unfortunately, this is about as naive as someone sitting down at a table with poker pros, after playing a only few hands online, and thinking they're going to be competitive. ironically, the market and vegas have more in common than one might think. they were both created by the top-feeders for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the bottom feeders. the only real difference is in vegas you get free drinks. the narratives that are used to sell the dream are the same; and like all good narratives, there is just enough of a ring of truth to them, to make them believable. inevitably, they always appeal to our intellect and emotions, yet they only exist for the benefit of those who would like to take our money. understand this very salient fact and you will stand a much better chance of succeeding.
  • know you have enough Money- if you don't have enough capital to begin with, you're finished, before you started.
  • know the Market- the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success- if you don't believe that a comprehensive knowledge of the market is important, you're well on your way out the door.
  • know your Methodology-it's taken me 8 years of trading electronically (after having been a professional trader for +30 years, to reach my current level of competency. if you truly believe, that you can compete against the most sophisticated traders in the world by drawing trend-lines and channels and employing anachronistic trading methods, you're sadly mistaken, and soon to be broke.
  • know how to Make-Money- there is a big difference between knowing how to trade, and knowing how to make money. the latter is about doing whatever it takes to get the job done. it's about trading the right markets, in the right ways, for the right reasons. in other words, you don't trade a market , because you like its trading hours; you choose to trade a market because its the best vehicle for making the most money. and you trade it in the way, that affords you the highest probability of making the most money.
  • know yourself & your Mentality - there are a variety of different stressors, emotional/personality flaws, and biases, that effect a trader's ability to make objective decisions. be smart enough to know you're dumb enough, that you don't know everything. The successful performances are those that really aren't about you- don't let who you are get in the way of your trading success.
one last general piece of advice - consider the source of the information you seek. as daniel patrick moynihan once said, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but not their own facts. most books geared to the retail trader, are out-dated, irrelevant, ineffectual and misguided - and quite frankly, so are most of the posts you read on this forum. once again, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but only a few posters on this site are sufficiently qualified to render one. you can also choose to try to show everybody how much faith you have in your own methodology, even if it's never been profitable, or you can use the forum to learn from others who have actually been successful. if you really want to learn, find ways to assess information systematically and surround yourself with experienced, knowledgeable, and proven people, who will challenge your opinions; even when they tell you something you don't want to hear..


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 Hulk 
Texas, USA
 
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1 Year Ago...

budfox View Post
PLease don’t bother posting “ you have no experience, can’t trade with a small account, you going to die etc” I get the message, I already made my decision, and hopped out the Huey chopper and on enemy territory ready to do battle - there is no turning back now.- I made my decision.

This thread is for providing useful advice for someone trading index futures LIVE for the very first time- and that means not just how to trade but also admin (ie. Close all orders at end of day etc, make sure your internet connection is good etc.)

So what advice yall have?


Today...

budfox View Post
Hello my esteemed colleagues,

I desire some of the forum greats such as @tigertrader, @Fat Tails, @kevinkdog, @josh, @PandaWarrior, @kbit, @bobwest, @mfbreakout, @ to kindly spend some of their precious time towards providing a little guidance.

You have already come a long way based on your post 1 year ago and today. So you are definitely on the right track.

I will just draw from my own experience and say that this is one if not the most important areas to focus on outside of the actual trading edge you are looking for - and that is, you as a person and your values. I had to short almost all of my ego and go long with size on humility and most importantly, trust myself because the answers lie within yet we almost always look outside. This applies to life in general first, and then to anything else including trading. There are a lot of more experienced traders here that can point you in the right path regarding developing your own edge and I just wanted to point out that you are on the right path based on just these 2 posts of yours.

@tigertrader has just given you what you are looking for. It really is up to you to believe it now or later. Focus on the last paragraph a lot.

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 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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re: Zulutrade and and forex algo.

Are you thinking of signing on some autotrading on a Zulutrade bot or someone manual trading? Those "top 10s" change all the time. Sometimes they change hands/ownership.

I had recall seeing someone post they lost like -50k on Zulutrade bots posted on these boards like 5 years ago.

Just my opinion, maybe try to find a well rated/testimonial trading room where the host is a decent trader who trades his own calls.

otherwise the rest of your plan sounds good. just my cents.

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 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
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I'm not the wordsmith Tigertrader is so I'll simply say I agree with everything he said. Beyond that is never taking trades from other people and really learn price action and s/r levels. You can examine various methodologies but backtest anything you consider and verify it works for you.

Along the lines of what tt said, what works for the other guy may not work for you...just keep digging until you see something that can consistently make money when YOU are doing it(on paper/sim initially)). I'm pretty much just a PA guy though I do look at Ichimoku as well for particular setups.

Fear, anxiousness and greed are something that you need a handle on( if you don't already).
If you exhibit any of those to a level that makes you deviate from your trading plans you MUST find the cause and deal with it, TT mentioned lack of proper funding as a source of some of those problems...there can be any number of factors that can screw you up. Just make sure you have a clear head and "peace of mind" when you trade.

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  #9 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013


isla View Post
One year in I'd imagine you have your own beliefs about markets formed. If so, you are the best person to ask what to do next. Maybe I understood your post wrong and you still haven't found something to work with?

Markets change all the time, so there is no one path to follow. If you think you've built a solid foundation then focus on your best trading ideas and see if you can make money consistently.

Reading through your short-term goals, it seems you have a quite unique trading profile with a mix of markets and techniques. Again, unless you prove to yourself your ideas are working or not, no-one will be able to change your opinion. I'm sure you've heard that it's better to stay focused on one method, but it must be your own decision in the end.


What are your beliefs about the market?

Not quite to sure what you mean by beliefs......but I have observed, and believe, that price does bounce of certain levels (for instance, I have observed that the weekly pivot is very respected) .

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  #10 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013



Cloudy View Post
re: Zulutrade and and forex algo.

Are you thinking of signing on some autotrading on a Zulutrade bot or someone manual trading? Those "top 10s" change all the time. Sometimes they change hands/ownership.

I had recall seeing someone post they lost like -50k on Zulutrade bots posted on these boards like 5 years ago.

Just my opinion, maybe try to find a well rated/testimonial trading room where the host is a decent trader who trades his own calls.

otherwise the rest of your plan sounds good. just my cents.

Yes I am seriously considering signing up with a signal provider on Zulutrade (where it is free as compared to C2).

Of course, preliminary research suggests that there is lots of slippage and lag time, but I am thinking of 'auto trading' for a week and seeing how bad/good it is.


I dont want to turn this thread into a zulutrade thread, so I will create a seperate thread on ZT.

I want everyone to know I do not intend on becoming a copytrader, my focus is still on understanding market structure and trading.

Good night.

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  #11 (permalink)
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
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budfox View Post
What are your beliefs about the market?

Not quite to sure what you mean by beliefs......but I have observed, and believe, that price does bounce of certain levels (for instance, I have observed that the weekly pivot is very respected) .

I mean your knowledge backed by experience. So it is something you understand intellectually and found evidence of. With your weekly pivot example: your observations are the evidence; just my guess, you think many people watch this area - is your knowledge (I'd prefer a more solid argumentation).

My beliefs are that markets are highly efficient nowadays and opportunities are limited, both in number and in their time window. There are institutions behind every move as well as on the other side of every move. So I think it is easier to foresee short term direction as opposed to longer term bets. I don't mind having no idea about where the market is going or even "probabilities" of this direction apart from specific situations which I understand.

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 Big Mike 
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If you want help, a good place to start would be to go back to your first threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) and read all the advice you were given and ignored the first time.

If you pursue any vendor, zulu, c2, trade room, whatever, it's just another sign you are going down the wrong path.

Mike

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Yes I am seriously considering signing up with a signal provider on Zulutrade (where it is free as compared to C2).

Of course, preliminary research suggests that there is lots of slippage and lag time, but I am thinking of 'auto trading' for a week and seeing how bad/good it is.


I dont want to turn this thread into a zulutrade thread, so I will create a seperate thread on ZT.

I want everyone to know I do not intend on becoming a copytrader, my focus is still on understanding market structure and trading.

Good night.

If you were serious about becoming a real trader you wouldn't be seeking a signal provider. All that would do is add more useless clutter for you to confuse yourself on.

I agree with @Big Mike go and re-read your old thread. Read the ask any question thread. Go back through the getting started webinars. Work to understand how and why the market is doing something.

When I first started trading I seemed to buy the high and sell the low, everytime. So I became determined to understand why people where taking the other side of my trades (and profiting). Why would they buy there, why would they sell there? This lead me to learn more about price action, market profile, auction theory, etc. I needed to understand how and why? Now I can see other traders in the price action. I get a sense of why they are fading a high, buying a dip, or taking profit. I also am starting to understand where their stops are or should be.

I may not be able take each trade I see, or execute the ones I do correctly. But that is not my job. My job is to formulate an idea based on what I can determine then use a small amount of risk capital to test it. Once the trade is execute I have 3 tasks. Cut losers quick, manage risk, and then try and maximize my profit. That is all I can do and I will do better as I gain more experience. So will you. But you have to get away from the BS.

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 DarkPoolTrading 
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Big Mike View Post
If you want help, a good place to start would be to go back to your first threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) and read all the advice you were given and ignored the first time.

If you pursue any vendor, zulu, c2, trade room, whatever, it's just another sign you are going down the wrong path.

Mike

haha, Mike beat me to it. You received excellent advice in your early threads a year ago,...which was ignored. I was amazed at the time by how much effort people put into responding to you with sound advice. You won't receive anything new now. What was good advice a year ago is good advice now.

The only question is, will you actually put in the hard work required and realize how long of a journey this is.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Posts: 313 since Jun 2013

I forgot to add to my short term goals:


5. Join TST and complete a combine


The only conundrum with this is whether I join when I have a proven trading model, or join when my skill isn't quite high and learn from their experienced coaches.


I have also heard that TST isn't for traders who scalp, more for those that hold longer positions. Correct me if I am wrong.

Thank you to all those that replied (keep replying)

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 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Posts: 313 since Jun 2013


tturner86 View Post
If you were serious about becoming a real trader you wouldn't be seeking a signal provider. All that would do is add more useless clutter for you to confuse yourself on.

I agree with @Big Mike go and re-read your old thread. Read the ask any question thread. Go back through the getting started webinars. Work to understand how and why the market is doing something.

When I first started trading I seemed to buy the high and sell the low, everytime. So I became determined to understand why people where taking the other side of my trades (and profiting). Why would they buy there, why would they sell there? This lead me to learn more about price action, market profile, auction theory, etc. I needed to understand how and why? Now I can see other traders in the price action. I get a sense of why they are fading a high, buying a dip, or taking profit. I also am starting to understand where their stops are or should be.

I may not be able take each trade I see, or execute the ones I do correctly. But that is not my job. My job is to formulate an idea based on what I can determine then use a small amount of risk capital to test it. Once the trade is execute I have 3 tasks. Cut losers quick, manage risk, and then try and maximize my profit. That is all I can do and I will do better as I gain more experience. So will you. But you have to get away from the BS.

Would you be able to explain why an individual couldnt do both?

Again, I want to be clear, I do not intend on solely becoming a copytrader, but just subscribe to a signal provider on the side, and while I am earning (hopefully) from this algo......I will of course be learning market profile and PA, with the emphasis on trying to understanding the market. This is what it says in my last sentence.

I am focussed on the ES anyway, and ZT is forex, so it would really be an investment so to speak.

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 budfox 
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I also am starting to think mechanical trading, would suit be better vs. discretionary.


I really appreciate kevinkdog's approach, and at this moment in time I will look to designing trading models and backtest them......then after having N=100 trades backtested eventually launch the ship at the docks and see if it floats/sails etc.

In this way I will be more accepting of losses, if my backtesting work shows the model has a high expectancy rate.

@kevinkdog

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 Big Mike 
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budfox View Post
but just subscribe to a signal provider on the side, and while I am earning (hopefully) from this algo......

Dude, you are unbelievably naive.

You do realize some people just don't make good traders right? I am not a good basketball player, it doesn't mean I've failed at life it just means I can't play ball. I can trade. Others cannot trade, but can play ball.

Your issue is you are determined to ignore all advice given to you. You've made close to zero effort. You don't ask intelligent questions which gives me major insight to the fact that you've not really paid attention to the advice you've been given. In fact, you do the exact opposite.

The only reason you have not been banned from the site already is because another futures.io (formerly BMT) member paid your Elite Membership fee out of their own pocket because they wanted to try to help you. I wanted to give that person the benefit of the doubt as they saw something in you. But what you've done with that charity is appalling.

If I do end up banning you, it will be for your own good. I will seek out the person that paid your membership fee and give them a refund.

Start taking things seriously. If I see you blatantly ignore another piece of advice then your gone. It is my hope that in banning you that you will abandon your pursuit of trading altogether. I simply cannot stand by and watch you kill yourself (metaphorically speaking).

Mike

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FalseProphets
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After reading this, if I actually post what's brewing in my mind right now, I could get banned myself!
Glad Mike covered 90% of it! Holy @#$!


budfox View Post
I also am starting to think mechanical trading, would suit be better vs. discretionary.


I really appreciate kevinkdog's approach, and at this moment in time I will look to designing trading models and backtest them......then after having N=100 trades backtested eventually launch the ship at the docks and see if it floats/sails etc.

In this way I will be more accepting of losses, if my backtesting work shows the model has a high expectancy rate.

@kevinkdog


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 budfox 
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Big Mike View Post
Dude, you are unbelievably naive.

You do realize some people just don't make good traders right? I am not a good basketball player, it doesn't mean I've failed at life it just means I can't play ball. I can trade. Others cannot trade, but can play ball.

Your issue is you are determined to ignore all advice given to you. You've made close to zero effort. You don't ask intelligent questions which gives me major insight to the fact that you've not really paid attention to the advice you've been given. In fact, you do the exact opposite.

The only reason you have not been banned from the site already is because another futures.io (formerly BMT) member paid your Elite Membership fee out of their own pocket because they wanted to try to help you. I wanted to give that person the benefit of the doubt as they saw something in you. But what you've done with that charity is appalling.

If I do end up banning you, it will be for your own good. I will seek out the person that paid your membership fee and give them a refund.

Start taking things seriously. If I see you blatantly ignore another piece of advice then your gone. It is my hope that in banning you that you will abandon your pursuit of trading altogether. I simply cannot stand by and watch you kill yourself (metaphorically speaking).

Mike

lol as tigertrader said everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

Mike,

This is a fantastic site you have created, and I congratulate you for that, but I am sure everyone will agree that by deciding to ignore an individual's advice is obviously not a legitimate reason to ban someone.

I don't want to argue with you.

Have a great day and thank you,

BF.

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 Big Mike 
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budfox View Post
but I am sure everyone will agree that by deciding to ignore an individual's advice is obviously not a legitimate reason to ban someone.

Poorly worded on my part. What I meant was that your posts are harmful to the community, and if you continue in this direction I will stop them from continuing.

Mike

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 budfox 
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Big Mike View Post
Poorly worded on my part. What I meant was that your posts are harmful to the community, and if you continue in this direction I will stop them from continuing.

Mike

Mike,

Would you be able to explain to us why they are harmful to the community? i.e. what about these posts will cause harm to the community.

I want to make a tremendous contribution to this excellent forum, as I said before, I consider it my workplace and university.

I apologize if anything about my posts or determined attitude have offended you, it definitely was not my intent.

God Bless,

BF.

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 fourtiwinks 
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budfox View Post
Mike,

Would you be able to explain to us why they are harmful to the community? i.e. what about these posts will cause harm to the community...

If I can make a guess.. it's that your comments/questions reflect what majority of retail traders (myself included) are asking for, teach us a "proven" system(s) with low risk and good returns as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, the main messages from Big Mike and experienced traders:
We have to find our own ways and that takes time, effort, lots of relearning and unlearning, developing habits and insights into our own psychology and market psychology.

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 josh 
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budfox View Post
I apologize if anything about my posts or determined attitude have offended you, it definitely was not my intent.

How about this--if you want to subscribe to a signal service, do it, just don't talk about it here if you don't want to incur the wrath of the many people who have told you, when you asked them for their advice, that it is a bad idea and waste of money.

It's quite difficult to help right now, because you are all over the place about as much as you can be. You're talking about reading books on PA, learning market profile, subscribing to signal services, and now mechanical trading. You seem to not really want to listen to anyone, just to ask, and when you get an answer that you don't want to hear, you ignore it. That's how it seems anyway. Maybe I'm wrong.

How about this, since you asked me personally in post #1, and since I'm incredibly nice. You trade ES, yes? Post your trade statistics for the last 5 trading days you traded, along with a 5-minute chart for each day, showing entries and exits. If you want help, and you do this, I will help, based on my own trades I took during the same days (if I traded that day). If you do not, I will conclude that you don't want guidance and direction (your words in the thread title). This is all entertaining theater but let's get down to business. I am going to bed in 2 hours (11pm ET). The offer stands until then but not after.

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 budfox 
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josh View Post
How about this--if you want to subscribe to a signal service, do it, just don't talk about it here if you don't want to incur the wrath of the many people who have told you, when you asked them for their advice, that it is a bad idea and waste of money.

It's quite difficult to help right now, because you are all over the place about as much as you can be. You're talking about reading books on PA, learning market profile, subscribing to signal services, and now mechanical trading. You seem to not really want to listen to anyone, just to ask, and when you get an answer that you don't want to hear, you ignore it. That's how it seems anyway. Maybe I'm wrong.

How about this, since you asked me personally in post #1, and since I'm incredibly nice. You trade ES, yes? Post your trade statistics for the last 5 trading days you traded, along with a 5-minute chart for each day, showing entries and exits. If you want help, and you do this, I will help, based on my own trades I took during the same days (if I traded that day). If you do not, I will conclude that you don't want guidance and direction (your words in the thread title). This is all entertaining theater but let's get down to business. I am going to bed in 2 hours (11pm ET). The offer stands until then but not after.

Thank you for your offer Josh, however I have not actually made any trades in the past five days (due to technical issues), but have mostly been backtesting a new system. If I did have trades I made in the past five days, I guarantee I would of taken you up.

Once I get a demo platform, and you are still willing to help, then I will definitely post them.

Have a great night.

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 josh 
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budfox View Post
Thank you for your offer Josh, however I have not actually made any trades in the past five days (due to technical issues)

In my post I said "the last 5 trading days you traded" ... not the last 5 days.

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 budfox 
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Long at 61 at 12h09, EXIT at 61.25 (Stop (used a trailing stop))




The candles are delayed by a few mins (crap feed provider) so the entry on the chart migt not accurately reflect it, green arrow point up is the entry,.............green arrow pointing down is the exit

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 budfox 
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Long 71.25 at 12h10

Exit at 71.75 at 12h13




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 budfox 
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16 July

Trade 1

Long @ 75 10h03 , Exit (Stop) 74 10h04

Trade 2

Long @ 74.75 10h05 , Exit (Stop) 74.5 10h15






21 July

Trade 1

Long @ 65 12h00 , Exit (Stop) 63.50 12h06




24 July

Trade1

Long @ 82.75 13h28 , Exit 83.5 13h30

Trade 2

Long @ 83 13h53 , Exit 83.5 13h56

Trade3

Long @ 79.5 13h02 , Exit 80.25 13h05




17 July

Trade 1

Long @ 63.5 12h20 , Exit (Stop) 62.5 12h21

Trade 2

Long @ 63.5 12h31 , Exit 65.25 12h35

Trade 3

Long @ 63.75 14h18 , Exit (Stop) 62.25 14h22

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 budfox 
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josh View Post
How about this, since you asked me personally in post #1, and since I'm incredibly nice. You trade ES, yes? Post your trade statistics for the last 5 trading days you traded, along with a 5-minute chart for each day, showing entries and exits. If you want help, and you do this, I will help, based on my own trades I took during the same days (if I traded that day). If you do not, I will conclude that you don't want guidance and direction (your words in the thread title). This is all entertaining theater but let's get down to business. I am going to bed in 2 hours (11pm ET). The offer stands until then but not after.

Here are the 5 last days I traded. I have posted all trade entry exit times for each chart .......they are not in consecutive order per say but i am sure you can figure out the trades based on the trade statistics.

Remember my feed is delayed, so the candle times are delayed (a pain i've learned to get accustomed to), but go by the trade stats.

I place an upwards pointing green arrow where I entered and a downwards pointing one where I exited.

I trail stop and try to get out trades as quick as I can.

Not sure how useful this is noting your trading style and mine might not be similiar.

Take your time in getting back, no rush.


Thank You so much Josh. I appreciate this.

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
I am focussed on the ES anyway, and ZT is forex, so it would really be an investment so to speak.

Spending anything on any vendor would be a waste of money.

From this comment I do not think you fully understand what the word investment means.

And to be honest bouncing with your post about TST to Automated trading and back, I am starting to think this is all a joke. You chose the handle Budfox from Wall Street, and your post previous and now make it seem so.

Multiple people have tried to give you constructive advice and you haven't engaged them. This makes it seem as if you have blown them off, then you ask for Kevin's advice on automated trading?

Now @josh as kind as he is has offered to review some of your trades. This is great and he is a saint to step in at this moment, but he will not be able to help you. (Not saying that he won't provide advice, I just don't think you will heed it.) And even at that a quick review of 5 days of trades isn't going to help you correct what is your core issue.

I suggest you go back to your old post and the advice you were given, then look at the advice given in this thread, and start to work on determining your core issue and creating a plan on how to correct it, or making the determination that you can't fix it and from there how that affects you and trading.

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 josh 
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budfox View Post
I trail stop and try to get out trades as quick as I can.

You do not seem to be overtrading. You generally seem to be in sync with the market (i.e. you're not buying highs). In fact, a few of those trades were really very nice in terms of their potential. They are all buys, which is probably not a bad thing given the market as it was then and still is now.

I think much of what you could improve is what many of us need to improve with: letting the market pay us. You said you "get out of trades as quick as you can" -- you are uncomfortable being in the trade. Most people are, and especially if you are undercapitalized it makes this hard to do. But you need to ask the same question when you exit for a profit or a loss: why am I exiting? My guess is that it's about 90% discomfort. It needs to be because of some reason that has nothing to do with how much you will make or lose, or how much you made or lost earlier in the day or the week. Learn to be uncomfortable, while you watch your profit oscillate back and forth. You'll see that while it's very difficult at first, that ultimately you have nothing to fear. The market can't do anything to hurt you. So don't fear a loss, and don't fear losing paper profits.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger wrote something I was reading the other day and trying to improve on--allowing discomfort. We do numerous things to avoid the discomfort of just sitting there and watching our P/L oscillate back and forth. It's hard as hell to do, but if we are ever to let the market pay us, realize it doesn't usually happen in a straight line.. there's give, and take.

Just be aware that you are asking questions and seem to be like most of us, seeking some kind of validation for what you're doing. Think independently, observe markets so that you can develop a framework in which to trade them, and trust yourself. Knowing that you know very little (as do I), learn from people who know what they are talking about -- but work their ideas into your own, independent mental framework.

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 Massive l 
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Bud Fox...I'm honestly speechless.
Josh gives you some great insight and all you have to say is "so you reviewed all the trades already?"
I can't tell if you are trolling or just rude. I guess they're one in the same.
I would save your time and money and find another hobby.

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 budfox 
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Massive l View Post
Bud Fox...I'm honestly speechless.
Josh gives you some great insight and all you have to say is "so you reviewed all the trades already?"
I can't tell if you are trolling or just rude. I guess they're one in the same.
I would save your time and money and find another hobby.

you can be assured that I appreciate the favour that Josh provided. Just dont have time right now to give a more elaborate response (will do so tommorrow night)

if you read the previous posts you would of seen that I did thank Josh

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 budfox 
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Massive l View Post
Bud Fox...I'm honestly speechless.
Josh gives you some great insight and all you have to say is "so you reviewed all the trades already?"
I can't tell if you are trolling or just rude. I guess they're one in the same.
I would save your time and money and find another hobby.

Would you like to also provide some insight?

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 Massive l 
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budfox View Post
you can be assured that I appreciate the favour that Josh provided. Just dont have time right now to give a more elaborate response (will do so tommorrow night)

if you read the previous posts you would of seen that I did thank Josh

Okay, well then no worries!

I can tell you, that you need to follow what your mind tells you about the market, strategy, risk, etc.
There's some awesome insight in this thread and all over the forum but for the most part, you have
to go your own way (thanks Fleetwood haha).

Learn from your mistakes and let the journey take you places. Don't resist..follow what your mind
tells you.

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 Massive l 
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Do you have a proven strategy but you're having a hard time with the psychology?
Is strategy development still confusing to you?
You really didn't mention what issues you're having.
You listed things you've learned so far...okay. What's the problem?

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 josh 
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I just thought of a recommendation I should have made that should be #1 on your list: read Dr. Brett Steenbarger's blog every day, and start reading from Jan 1 until today as "catch up" reading. He addresses psychology, markets, and life.

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 budfox 
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josh View Post
You do not seem to be overtrading. You generally seem to be in sync with the market (i.e. you're not buying highs). In fact, a few of those trades were really very nice in terms of their potential. They are all buys, which is probably not a bad thing given the market as it was then and still is now.

I think much of what you could improve is what many of us need to improve with: letting the market pay us. You said you "get out of trades as quick as you can" -- you are uncomfortable being in the trade. Most people are, and especially if you are undercapitalized it makes this hard to do. But you need to ask the same question when you exit for a profit or a loss: why am I exiting? My guess is that it's about 90% discomfort. It needs to be because of some reason that has nothing to do with how much you will make or lose, or how much you made or lost earlier in the day or the week. Learn to be uncomfortable, while you watch your profit oscillate back and forth. You'll see that while it's very difficult at first, that ultimately you have nothing to fear. The market can't do anything to hurt you. So don't fear a loss, and don't fear losing paper profits.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger wrote something I was reading the other day and trying to improve on--allowing discomfort. We do numerous things to avoid the discomfort of just sitting there and watching our P/L oscillate back and forth. It's hard as hell to do, but if we are ever to let the market pay us, realize it doesn't usually happen in a straight line.. there's give, and take.

Just be aware that you are asking questions and seem to be like most of us, seeking some kind of validation for what you're doing. Think independently, observe markets so that you can develop a framework in which to trade them, and trust yourself. Knowing that you know very little (as do I), learn from people who know what they are talking about -- but work their ideas into your own, independent mental framework.

Hi Josh,

Once again, thank you @josh for review of my trades.

I do short if my setup suggests so. But just coincidentally the last five trading days I happened to go long.

I exit when price hits its specified target (which is predetermined by ATR calculations). The reason I get out so quick is not b/c I am uncomfortable ( I think?), but b/c I think that shortest amount of time I am in a trade the least risk (am I wrong/right?).

No I do not fear losing (especially now that I am adopting a mechanical trading approach), I keep my stop at the appropriate level and raise it as price rises (assuming a long bias); whats the worst that can happen? I get stopped out and lose 2 ticks...I think that is one of my strengths. I see geting stopped out as a positive event → I am protecting my capital.



It seems you are a discretionary trader?

BTW, I have read some of Steenbarger's articles , he is quite knowledgeable.

Right now I think I will have a similiar approach as @kevinkdog, design a model, backtest, incubate , trade etc.

so far my market replay has been fairly decent. no I have demo traded this new model for three months which I plan on doing. I rather make no money, than lose money.

Have a great day Josh and stay in touch,

BF

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 budfox 
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Massive l View Post
Do you have a proven strategy but you're having a hard time with the psychology?
Is strategy development still confusing to you?
You really didn't mention what issues you're having.
You listed things you've learned so far...okay. What's the problem?

As I said in post #1, I am just taking a macro view and wondering if I am on the right track. I still haven't developed a trading identity:

For some reason, I have been too attached to trading ES , and it may not necessarily be the best instrument for me (or it may).

Also I am uncertain as to which approach to use.....market profile, acd, patterns , ie. which one suits my trading personality.

Obviously what I am aiming for is a model with low risk and high probability, that is what I do know.

So I was just looking for guidance, and have received some, but as you know everyone has their own opinions and motives.

I wonder how many of the posters on this thread was consistently profitable after one year


Thank You @Massive I

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
I do short if my setup suggests so. But just coincidentally the last five trading days I happened to go long.

What setup? What trading method are you using?

It is great that you posted some of your trades, but why did you buy where you did? Why did you exit? What was your reasoning and logic?

Overall most of your trades seemed fine, just a bit quick on trailing stops. But again it is hard to tell because we have no idea why you are executing trades where you are?

Please just pick a few of the trades and give me some of your reasoning behind entering and exiting.

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 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
What setup? What trading method are you using?

It is great that you posted some of your trades, but why did you buy where you did? Why did you exit? What was your reasoning and logic?

Overall most of your trades seemed fine, just a bit quick on trailing stops. But again it is hard to tell because we have no idea why you are executing trades where you are?

Please just pick a few of the trades and give me some of your reasoning behind entering and exiting.

Why did you think they were quick on the trailers?

Thanks

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 tturner86 
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Long at 61 at 12h09, EXIT at 61.25 (Stop (used a trailing stop))




The candles are delayed by a few mins (crap feed provider) so the entry on the chart migt not accurately reflect it, green arrow point up is the entry,.............green arrow pointing down is the exit

Here you trailed your stop and exited for +1 tick. When price continued in your direction and you missed multiple points.

Why did you trail your stop? Why not hold your initial stop and allow the trade to work?

I am not saying you did anything wrong, I actually did the samething this morning. I entered the NQ @ 4034.25 at 9:45 CST. I exited at the VWAP because price pulled back against me and I got scared. Once I exited, price then rallied 5 points. I missed it because I did not allow my trade to work. I trailed too early and settled for less profit. This is me cutting a winner short which is just as bad as letting a loser run too long.

So I ask you, why and how did you trail your stops? Why did you decide to enter the trade as well?

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 budfox 
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Here you trailed your stop and exited for +1 tick. When price continued in your direction and you missed multiple points.

Why did you trail your stop? Why not hold your initial stop and allow the trade to work?

I am not saying you did anything wrong, I actually did the samething this morning. I entered the NQ @ 4034.25 at 9:45 CST. I exited at the VWAP because price pulled back against me and I got scared. Once I exited, price then rallied 5 points. I missed it because I did not allow my trade to work. I trailed too early and settled for less profit. This is me cutting a winner short which is just as bad as letting a loser run too long.

So I ask you, why and how did you trail your stops? Why did you decide to enter the trade as well?

Thank You for your advice,


Thats my system, to trail at two ticks. I believe (could be wrong of course), that this trailing preserves capital/profits.

I am looking at explosive moves, moves where price keep going up, not pulling back and then going up again.

Nobody, knew after 12h25 price was going to keep going up. In fact it hit the 10ema, and thats a place where price usually reverses.

Remember I am trading a small account (maybe mike was right I should trade forex), I can not risk too much.

But guess what I actually abandoned that system and am working on a new model.

@tturner86 are you a discretionary trader or mechanical?

Thank You for pointing that out, I have noticed myself that I tend to cut winners short. See this is why you have to backtest @kevinkdog, b/c then you have some idea of how far price generally goes before reversing.

Its hard to decide to let winners run (b/c you dont know how far price will go, hence the trailer) versus. bank quick profits.

In my previous posts I did mention I am still trying to determine my trading identity, or what is the best method for someone trying to build a small account versus maintain a large one.

Have a great day and thank you for posting on my thread.

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Thank You for your advice,


Thats my system, to trail at two ticks. I believe (could be wrong of course), that this trailing preserves capital/profits.

I am looking at explosive moves, moves where price keep going up, not pulling back and then going up again.

Nobody, knew after 12h25 price was going to keep going up. In fact it hit the 10ema, and thats a place where price usually reverses.

Remember I am trading a small account (maybe mike was right I should trade forex), I can not risk too much.

But guess what I actually abandoned that system and am working on a new model.

@tturner86 are you a discretionary trader or mechanical?

Thank You for pointing that out, I have noticed myself that I tend to cut winners short. See this is why you have to backtest @kevinkdog, b/c then you have some idea of how far price generally goes before reversing.

Its hard to decide to let winners run (b/c you dont know how far price will go, hence the trailer) versus. bank quick profits.

In my previous posts I did mention I am still trying to determine my trading identity, or what is the best method for someone trying to build a small account versus maintain a large one.

Have a great day and thank you for posting on my thread.

But you can have ideas where price will go.

When I enter a trade I have a very specific target, entry and stop. Below is a trade I just took.



Blue circle is signal bars. Green line is entry short. Red line is initial stop loss. Blue line is trade direction and duration. Blue triangle is exit signal. Yellow box is a sea of price action I sat through awaiting target.

Key is when I placed this trade I had a target set. I was targeting the Purple box (Control Point) and the lower standard deviation cloud around bar 340. I had this area in mind before trade was executed. So when I looked and saw the spike up of bar 316 and then the reversal, I did a quick math in my head. Stop would have to be up around 3041, so I would be risking 2 pts. Target is 7 pts below. That is almost a 4:1 reward to risk ratio. So I pulled the trigger.

Price went in my favor then hit the bottom of the inside band. You can see that price then interacted with it for quite some time before making its way towards my target. At this moment my stop was at B/E. My line in the sand was the VWAP (Alternating Blue/Red dash dot line in the middle of chart.) If it penetrated that, I would close.

Once price broken down under the band around bar 328 or so my stop is at the VWAP and my new line in the sand is the VPOC (Volume Point of Control) the large red line on the right of the market profile. If price penetrated that I would then look to close.

Price then entered the Pivot Point box (blue and purple box at the bottom) and tagged my limit order.

See how I have broken down how and why I entered, moved my stop, and exited my trade? Each have logical reasons why, each are based off price action around a support level, and each can be studied and backtested. I can go back and study how price interacts with these areas. (I am fully aware that price action is dependent on market cycle and behavior and will change every so often.)

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Thank You for your advice,


Thats my system, to trail at two ticks. I believe (could be wrong of course), that this trailing preserves capital/profits.

I am looking at explosive moves, moves where price keep going up, not pulling back and then going up again.

Nobody, knew after 12h25 price was going to keep going up. In fact it hit the 10ema, and thats a place where price usually reverses.

Remember I am trading a small account (maybe mike was right I should trade forex), I can not risk too much.

But guess what I actually abandoned that system and am working on a new model.

@tturner86 are you a discretionary trader or mechanical?

Thank You for pointing that out, I have noticed myself that I tend to cut winners short. See this is why you have to backtest @kevinkdog, b/c then you have some idea of how far price generally goes before reversing.

Its hard to decide to let winners run (b/c you dont know how far price will go, hence the trailer) versus. bank quick profits.

In my previous posts I did mention I am still trying to determine my trading identity, or what is the best method for someone trying to build a small account versus maintain a large one.

Have a great day and thank you for posting on my thread.

I am discretionary. But I have very specific setups that I trade and a written plan on how to execute each one. I only trade these setups and do not play around or 'test' new ideas with live cash.

Also a 2 tick trailing stop is unrealistic and doesn't give you enough room for the markets natural ebb and flow.

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 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
But you can have ideas where price will go.

When I enter a trade I have a very specific target, entry and stop. Below is a trade I just took.



Blue circle is signal bars. Green line is entry short. Red line is initial stop loss. Blue line is trade direction and duration. Blue triangle is exit signal. Yellow box is a sea of price action I sat through awaiting target.

Key is when I placed this trade I had a target set. I was targeting the Purple box (Control Point) and the lower standard deviation cloud around bar 340. I had this area in mind before trade was executed. So when I looked and saw the spike up of bar 316 and then the reversal, I did a quick math in my head. Stop would have to be up around 3041, so I would be risking 2 pts. Target is 7 pts below. That is almost a 4:1 reward to risk ratio. So I pulled the trigger.

Price went in my favor then hit the bottom of the inside band. You can see that price then interacted with it for quite some time before making its way towards my target. At this moment my stop was at B/E. My line in the sand was the VWAP (Alternating Blue/Red dash dot line in the middle of chart.) If it penetrated that, I would close.

Once price broken down under the band around bar 328 or so my stop is at the VWAP and my new line in the sand is the VPOC (Volume Point of Control) the large red line on the right of the market profile. If price penetrated that I would then look to close.

Price then entered the Pivot Point box (blue and purple box at the bottom) and tagged my limit order.

See how I have broken down how and why I entered, moved my stop, and exited my trade? Each have logical reasons why, each are based off price action around a support level, and each can be studied and backtested. I can go back and study how price interacts with these areas. (I am fully aware that price action is dependent on market cycle and behavior and will change every so often.)

Thank You for sharing...


so what is your entry criteria? when price retraces back to 20ema?


That is a beautifu l chart layout how did you create it?

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Thank You for sharing...


so what is your entry criteria? when price retraces back to 20ema?


That is a beautifu l chart layout how did you create it?

My trades are context + signal + entry price = trade.

Context is a down leg in a trading range. It was also a failure at the high.

Signal was the 2 bar reversal after a pullback to the VWAP. It was also a VWAP gap bar. Price passed it creating a gap, then it completely reversed that move back to the VWAP.

Entry price is 1 tick below signal bar, entry price is important because it determines where the stop is and where the target is and helps to determine the R:R for the trade. If I cannot get an entry that provides a decent R:R then the trade is not valid.

All of the indicators and everything I do is in the quick summary of my journal. Please do not get distracted by the chart.

Can you now explain your logic and how you managed your trades on your "Long at 61 at 12h09, EXIT at 61.25 (Stop (used a trailing stop)) " trade.

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 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
Here you trailed your stop and exited for +1 tick. When price continued in your direction and you missed multiple points.

Why did you trail your stop? Why not hold your initial stop and allow the trade to work?

I am not saying you did anything wrong, I actually did the samething this morning. I entered the NQ @ 4034.25 at 9:45 CST. I exited at the VWAP because price pulled back against me and I got scared. Once I exited, price then rallied 5 points. I missed it because I did not allow my trade to work. I trailed too early and settled for less profit. This is me cutting a winner short which is just as bad as letting a loser run too long.

So I ask you, why and how did you trail your stops? Why did you decide to enter the trade as well?

Let me take a look at my journal:

Ok I need to be as detailed as you are when it comes to journaling but this was based on my weekly pivot setup.

simply price came down and hit the weekly pivot, and I believe TICK hit -500 , so I decided to be bullish....

cant remember my exact trigger, but I am sure it was when the tick crossed over its 10EMA after hitting -500 ( I think) then I probably set a buy limit at the 10ema (remember this is 5min, as requested by Josh, and do most of my business on the 1min).

It looks wierd on the 5min....but yeah maybe you are right the 2 tick trailer is not realistic.


Sorry this was a while ago......so not sure what my mindset was on that day.

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Let me take a look at my journal:

Ok I need to be as detailed as you are when it comes to journaling but this was based on my weekly pivot setup.

simply price came down and hit the weekly pivot, and I believe TICK hit -500 , so I decided to be bullish....

cant remember my exact trigger, but I am sure it was when the tick crossed over its 10EMA after hitting -500 ( I think) then I probably set a buy limit at the 10ema (remember this is 5min, as requested by Josh, and do most of my business on the 1min).

It looks wierd on the 5min....but yeah maybe you are right the 2 tick trailer is not realistic.


Sorry this was a while ago......so not sure what my mindset was on that day.

And here is an issue you need to work on. Be more detailed in your journal. Look to gather info about the entry, management, and exit of the trade. Also capture what you were thinking and feeling during the trade. I also like to write down what happen after I exit. Did it continue, fail, etc.

I see you have some logic in entering the trades, that is good. You need to work on determining an exit. Once you know e entry and exit, the management will be easier. (I am still working on that myself).

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 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
And here is an issue you need to work on. Be more detailed in your journal. Look to gather info about the entry, management, and exit of the trade. Also capture what you were thinking and feeling during the trade. I also like to write down what happen after I exit. Did it continue, fail, etc.

I see you have some logic in entering the trades, that is good. You need to work on determining an exit. Once you know e entry and exit, the management will be easier. (I am still working on that myself).

Besides Al Brooks, what is your technical background?

How much market profile training have you taken?

I see what you mean by exit, you are suggesting I determine where I think price will reverse after I enter a trade.......not quite too sure how to do that.

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Besides Al Brooks, what is your technical background?

How much market profile training have you taken?

I see what you mean by exit, you are suggesting I determine where I think price will reverse after I enter a trade.......not quite too sure how to do that.

No I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.

I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.

All of the market profile training I have is based on webinars from @FuturesTrader71 and general observation over the last 6 months. (Market profile doesn't drive my trading, it provides context which is very important to deciding how to trade at certain times during the market cycle.)

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 budfox 
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No I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.

I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.

All of the market profile training I have is based on webinars from @FuturesTrader71 and general observation over the last 6 months.

I have a lot of respect for FT71! did you buy his paid webinars, or just the ones here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

So you would predict price to turn at certain S/R levels? and that is where you would have your target?

Recently I have been using Fib lines and ATR Calculations for targets. I dont trade the big swings you do, but I guess you could call me a 'semi-scalper', I have a tiny account. (maybe I will switch to forex pairs or a cheaper future's contract) .

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
I have a lot of respect for FT71! did you buy his paid webinars, or just the ones here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

So you would predict price to turn at certain S/R levels? and that is where you would have your target?

Recently I have been using Fib lines and ATR Calculations for targets. I dont trade the big swings you do, but I guess you could call me a 'semi-scalper', I have a tiny account. (maybe I will switch to forex pairs or a cheaper future's contract) .

Yes, you look to buy at support and sell at resistance. In a move minor levels of s/r will fail until it hits one and pivots. If you are flat, wait for the pivot or a pullback. It will take time to determine what is a major or minor level of s/r. Sometimes they pivot sometimes they don't. If they don't pivot, they become the opposite. So if it was resistance and it breaks it, it now becomes support and you may be able to enter on a pullback to the level your were watching.

I do not use Fibs personally, but I have used them to determine potential areas of interest. My main s/r levels are Yesterday high, low, and close. ADN high and low, ADR high and low. Vwap and its standard deviation bands, and the Pivot point, Control Point and Direction Point. I look for price action patterns around those levels and then trade it accordingly.

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 isla 
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Budfox, it doesn't look to me that you did enough of solid work in your first year, as you are basically where you started. The two options you have now are these: keep asking for answers and spend another year testing every single advice you've been given; or take responsibility and start thinking on your own (a useful skill anyway in trading). No-one here is smarter than you, and even if they are, intelligence is not directly correlated with trading success.

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 addchild 
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isla View Post
Budfox, it doesn't look to me that you did enough of solid work in your first year, as you are basically where you started. The two options you have now are these: keep asking for answers and spend another year testing every single advice you've been given; or take responsibility and start thinking on your own (a useful skill anyway in trading). No-one here is smarter than you, and even if they are, intelligence is not directly correlated with trading success.

Best advice yet.

.
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 budfox 
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Budfox, it doesn't look to me that you did enough of solid work in your first year, as you are basically where you started. The two options you have now are these: keep asking for answers and spend another year testing every single advice you've been given; or take responsibility and start thinking on your own (a useful skill anyway in trading). No-one here is smarter than you, and even if they are, intelligence is not directly correlated with trading success.

I have to disagree with the 'where you started' part. I knew jack about trading the ES a year ago, now I know substantially more (and eager to learn even more).

Yes financially I am at the same place ( or slightly worse), but in terms of skill set I am definitely improved. Not to pat myself on the back, but I did spend a year trading the ES, which of course will provide one with experience.

Like I mentioned before on another thread, learning to trade is hard for me, b/c everyone gives you conflicting advice, and there is NO structured curriculum, such becoming a lawyer, doctor, accountant, where you go to school, write the exams and pass the bar and next thing you know you are in a court room.

In trading there are no sequential steps (ie. sign up for a scammer coach, demo trade, trade a cheap contract, then trade a more expensive contract, then buy a ferrari etc).

There are so many decisions and avenues. Should I be mechanical or discretionary? should I trade ES or forex? Should I use Market Profile or ACD? It's like walking in a dark forest you dont know where you going.

Being in a university learning the above mentioned professions versus sitting at home on your laptop talking to strangers on a forum (and reading books) results in an obviously significantly slower learning curve.

I want to increase my learning curve (and I am a very patient individual).



Of course I want to 'think on my own', but I don't want to think the wrong ideas on my own. Make sense? (ie. trade in a silo)


I hope you don't take this post as a sign of unappreciation. Thank You.

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 budfox 
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Yes, you look to buy at support and sell at resistance. In a move minor levels of s/r will fail until it hits one and pivots. If you are flat, wait for the pivot or a pullback. It will take time to determine what is a major or minor level of s/r. Sometimes they pivot sometimes they don't. If they don't pivot, they become the opposite. So if it was resistance and it breaks it, it now becomes support and you may be able to enter on a pullback to the level your were watching.

I do not use Fibs personally, but I have used them to determine potential areas of interest. My main s/r levels are Yesterday high, low, and close. ADN high and low, ADR high and low. Vwap and its standard deviation bands, and the Pivot point, Control Point and Direction Point. I look for price action patterns around those levels and then trade it accordingly.

TT, I am curious how much trading experience you had prior to joining futures.io (formerly BMT)?

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 budfox 
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isla View Post
Budfox, it doesn't look to me that you did enough of solid work in your first year, as you are basically where you started. The two options you have now are these: keep asking for answers and spend another year testing every single advice you've been given; or take responsibility and start thinking on your own (a useful skill anyway in trading). No-one here is smarter than you, and even if they are, intelligence is not directly correlated with trading success.

I would like it if we could generalize specifically what "solid work" a beginner trader should do in their first year?
  1. Learn price action?
  2. DEmo trade?
  3. trade a cheap contract
  4. what you suggest?


It would be useful for me.


Thank You.....

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 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
No I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.

I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.

All of the market profile training I have is based on webinars from @FuturesTrader71 and general observation over the last 6 months. (Market profile doesn't drive my trading, it provides context which is very important to deciding how to trade at certain times during the market cycle.)


I wish I could say "Thank You' six times for this post but you can only click that button once.

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 isla 
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budfox View Post
I would like it if we could generalize specifically what "solid work" a beginner trader should do in their first year?
  1. Learn price action?
  2. DEmo trade?
  3. trade a cheap contract
  4. what you suggest?


It would be useful for me.


Thank You.....

I understand what you mean. You are showing great attitude towards learning and I honestly wish you all the best.

Unfortunately trading is not a university and some things just cannot be learnt by following other people's ideas. Some styles are more intellectually demanding, some only fit certain personalities. Being in a competitive business you need to think what your strengths are. I knew I wouldn't be a quant from day one, but who knows maybe you'd do well. Taking responsibility for making decisions about your path is what makes it so difficult. But you will acquire times more actual skill and confidence going on your own rather than just building your knowledge base.

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 tigertrader 
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"I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.

I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.
"


let it be said, and hopefully understood that measurements of uncertainty and thus risk are never definite, since the measurement of uncertainty too, will be having an uncertainty. and while the advice may appear to be sound, it is not absolute, but instead extremely relative - and if not executed properly, even stultifying to one's development as a trader. "plan your trade, and trade your plan" is another. a great idea, as long as the assumptions behind your plan are sound or nothing changes once you're in the trade. you are being asked to make decisions that you are woefully unqualified to make. what you need to do is to gain an understanding of the market which includes causality and market structure, et al, so that you would be qualified to make objective and knowledgeable situational assessments of the market.

i must confess, i’d rather just guess
than be duped and fooled, by randomness
i rather think twice, than just roll the dice
these random studies, do not drive price

rather think like a fox, not be put in a box
as the markets are, a recursive paradox
if not arc sine laws, then ever-changing-cycles
if you are in denial, it can be almost suicidal

these damning effects, must be circumvented
but not with the invented, nor the misrepresented
not with tools that are myopic, or simply synoptic,
lest the retail hypnotic, not benefit the agnostic

a causal understanding, is certainly demanding
but in-or-out of sample, it sets the best example
there’s so much more, than just trade and win
like adding to profits, when others are cashing in

immune to the tout, trading without any doubt
entering trades, where others are stopped-out
not stepping out-on-the ledge, with an illusory edge
there’s no need to hedge, this is my solemn pledge

-tt

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 tturner86 
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tigertrader View Post
"I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.

I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.
"


let it be said, and hopefully understood that measurements of uncertainty and thus risk are never definite, since the measurement of uncertainty too, will be having an uncertainty. and while the advice may appear to be sound, it is not absolute, but instead extremely relative - and if not executed properly, even stultifying to one's development as a trader. "plan your trade, and trade your plan" is another. a great idea, as long as the assumptions behind your plan are sound or nothing changes once you're in the trade. you are being asked to make decisions that you are woefully unqualified to make. what you need to do is to gain an understanding of the market which includes causality and market structure, et al, so that you would be qualified to make objective and knowledgeable situational assessments of the market.

I absolutely agree. But as a new trader you have to start somewhere and it is better to start with a plan then no plan at all. As one gains experience and understanding of the market and what drives price they can begin to create better plans.

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 tigertrader 
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tturner86 View Post
I absolutely agree. But as a new trader you have to start somewhere and it is better to start with a plan then no plan at all. As one gains experience and understanding of the market and what drives price they can begin to create better plans.

I couldn't disagree more and it is one of the primary reasons that 99% of the people on this forum, will blow-out or give up due to attrition and frustration. they are in too big of a hurry to start trading, and in too big of hurry to make money.

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 tturner86 
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tigertrader View Post
I couldn't disagree more and it is one of the primary reasons that 99% of the people on this forum, will blow-out or give up due to attrition and frustration. they are in too big of a hurry to start trading, and in too big of hurry to make money.

Well you know what they say about delayed gratification.

I understand your point and can see how it would be beneficial to learn how to make a better hypothesis before you trade.

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 Big Mike 
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tigertrader View Post
I couldn't disagree more and it is one of the primary reasons that 99% of the people on this forum, will blow-out or give up due to attrition and frustration. they are in too big of a hurry to start trading, and in too big of hurry to make money.

If you were in my shoes you'd freak the fuck out. Watching the collective behaviors/patterns of 50k traders over the last 5 years is enough to question your sanity.

It's like a bunch of sheep jumping off a cliff. We do what we can to try and help them see the light but in the end, most of them just have to jump to see for themselves what's down there. When people are not willing to do the work to help themselves, there is little you can do to help them.

I have been "self taught" in all major aspects of my life. I have never had the mentality of "teach me, show me, prove it". It's always been, "let me figure out how this works".

@budfox posted this a year ago:

Quoting 
PLease don’t bother posting “ you have no experience, can’t trade with a small account, you going to die etc” I get the message, I already made my decision

This thread is basically a repeat of the previous threads. Until he creates a journal and starts taking people's advice and actually doing some real work on his trading, then I believe the evidence clearly shows he cannot be helped.

Mike

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  #67 (permalink)
 addchild 
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budfox View Post
I would like it if we could generalize specifically what "solid work" a beginner trader should do in their first year?
  1. Learn price action?
  2. DEmo trade?
  3. trade a cheap contract
  4. what you suggest?


It would be useful for me.


Thank You.....

First Year reads:


The futures game, who wins, who loses and why. : tewles and jones

CME group risk management handbook.

Winner take all: gallacher

^ these books should at least get you to the point where you can make better choices, and more importantly, ask appropriate questions.

.
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 DarkPoolTrading 
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Big Mike View Post
I have never had the mentality of "teach me, show me, prove it". It's always been, "let me figure out how this works".

I would venture a guess that there is an extremely high correlation between people with your mindset and approach to learning,...and those who make it as traders.

Trading is not a career where an approach of "show me your system and then ill go make money" will ever work. The best you can hope for is to work with a mentor. But even then, a certain attitude and willingness to do their own work is required which some people simply do not have.

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Big Mike View Post
Until he creates a journal and starts taking people's advice and actually doing some real work on his trading, then I believe the evidence clearly shows he cannot be helped.

Mike


budfox View Post
Let me take a look at my journal.


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 isla 
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addchild View Post
First Year reads:


The futures game, who wins, who loses and why. : tewles and jones

CME group risk management handbook.

Winner take all: gallacher

^ these books should at least get you to the point where you can make better choices, and more importantly, ask appropriate questions.

I'd also advise "Trading and Exchanges" by Larry Harris on market microstructure (try to find Indian edition for a reasonable price). If you do decide to focus on short-term trading, it will give you a better perspective on the players and how different they do business. It may also help you to decide what side you want to play on.

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 budfox 
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Thxo View Post

Exactly .

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 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Big Mike View Post

@budfox posted this a year ago:


This thread is basically a repeat of the previous threads. Until he creates a journal and starts taking people's advice and actually doing some real work on his trading, then I believe the evidence clearly shows he cannot be helped.

Mike

I am sure if any decent person would read my previous threads they would obviously see that this thread is completely different.

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  #73 (permalink)
 chuckchucker 
Chicago
 
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Hey Budfrog,

I'd recommend spending some time with TsT. They have a lot of good educators. I've been trading with them for over a year. I've never passed a combine, it's really helped me in my development. They have a great team there. I trade live now with a prop firm. I am succeeding in my career and I have this forum to thank and TsT. Still trying to pass that combine, LoL. If only I could learn to stop out of a losing position.

Alligators and crocodiles are not the same. A lot of people don't know that.
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 Underexposed 
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tigertrader View Post

i must confess, i’d rather just guess
than be duped and fooled, by randomness
i rather think twice, than just roll the dice
these random studies, do not drive price

rather think like a fox, not be put in a box
as the markets are, a recursive paradox
if not arc sine laws, then ever-changing-cycles
if you are in denial, it can be almost suicidal

these damning effects, must be circumvented
but not with the invented, nor the misrepresented
not with tools that are myopic, or simply synoptic,
lest the retail hypnotic, not benefit the agnostic

a causal understanding, is certainly demanding
but in-or-out of sample, it sets the best example
there’s so much more, than just trade and win
like adding to profits, when others are cashing in

immune to the tout, trading without any doubt
entering trades, where others are stopped-out
not stepping out-on-the ledge, with an illusory edge
there’s no need to hedge, this is my solemn pledge

-tt

I'm impressed

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  #75 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
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chuckchucker View Post
Hey Budfrog,

I'd recommend spending some time with TsT. They have a lot of good educators. I've been trading with them for over a year. I've never passed a combine, it's really helped me in my development. They have a great team there. I trade live now with a prop firm. I am succeeding in my career and I have this forum to thank and TsT. Still trying to pass that combine, LoL. If only I could learn to stop out of a losing position.

Hi Chuck,

Thanks for the reply.

Yes I plan on eventually doing a combine, when i have a decent system. I know right now I wouldn't pass it.

WE will talk sometime,

BF.

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 budfox 
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Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.

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  #77 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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budfox View Post
Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.

Idk man seems like a lot of different obstacles. I'm not sure why you want to automate and learn programming to compensate for trading. Wouldn't it be better to learn how to trade first successful? Why are you so interested in the TST combine instead of just starting with maintaining your own account to make your way live first? I'm sorry if I missed your reasoning for all of this but they it just strikes me as peculiar as to why you're avoiding just trading sim.

Like I've told you before, If you don't have an undying passion for programming already you're going to have a hard time sticking through to making a algorithm that works. Many people spend years making a decent algo. Do you really want to go down that path considering you don't know how to program? That's a huge investment. You're better off just going back to college and building a nest. Once you learn how to program from college and have a steady job with it then you have better chances with it.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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  #78 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Itchymoku View Post
Idk man seems like a lot of different obstacles. I'm not sure why you want to automate and learn programming to compensate for trading. Wouldn't it be better to learn how to trade first successful? Why are you so interested in the TST combine instead of just starting with maintaining your own account to make your way live first? I'm sorry if I missed your reasoning for all of this but they it just strikes me as peculiar as to why you're avoiding just trading sim.

Like I've told you before, If you don't have an undying passion for programming already you're going to have a hard time sticking through to making a algorithm that works. Many people spend years making a decent algo. Do you really want to go down that path considering you don't know how to program? That's a huge investment. You're better off just going back to college and building a nest. Once you learn how to program from college and have a steady job with it then you have better chances with it.

Hi Itchy,

Thanks once again for your input.

I definitely need to clear up my reasoning.

I want to learn programming just so I can backtest more efficiently on NT, as one can not backtest efficiently without some programming knowledge.

I have no desires at the current moment to design an algo lol .

I was already live for year trading the ES.

I am interested in doing a combine since it appears from the numerous posts I've read on this forum, that it is apparently a great learning process (with real trading professionals who can give you useful advice) .

Have a great day mate,


bf.

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  #79 (permalink)
 DarkPoolTrading 
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budfox View Post
Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

Are you talking about a 70% drawdown on total capital? If so, that is MASSIVE and I guarantee you here and now that you will break your rules and change your methods (and generally freak out), way before you reach anywhere close to 70% drawdown when trading live.

It's one thing if you've got several large accounts each running different strategies so that they hedge each other. But as we know from your posts over the last 1.5years, that is not your situation. Since you're looking into forex you may want to incorporate position sizing and money management strategies that force you to trade smaller the more you lose. And if it was me, I wouldn't want to see a drawdown of 40%.

It's one thing looking at backtest results and being happy with a 50% drawdown. It's a complete different story when doing it live and your precious account which you've put all your hopes and dreams in to is now half gone.

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 Itchymoku 
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budfox View Post
Hi Itchy,

Thanks once again for your input.

I definitely need to clear up my reasoning.

I want to learn programming just so I can backtest more efficiently on NT, as one can not backtest efficiently without some programming knowledge.

I have no desires at the current moment to design an algo lol .

I was already live for year trading the ES.

I am interested in doing a combine since it appears from the numerous posts I've read on this forum, that it is apparently a great learning process (with real trading professionals who can give you useful advice) .

Have a great day mate,


bf.

I appreciate your curiosity and eagerness to learn with your pm's to me, but I think what you need to do is just find a way to get good at testing if things work by trying them out in sim or replay. It may not be as comprehensive but you can get a good idea if things work or don't by just creating a simple table or list of p/l on if the trade worked or didn't with a specific criteria or set of criteria and go through trade by trade before you go crazy with back tests. What worked for these other people might not be best for you.

You're taking everyone's advice wholeheartedly and that'll cause you go in a thousand different directions. Maybe learning to program would help someone back-test more efficiently but you have to wonder if that is entirely what would work best for you. Think about it, if you back test a few different indicators working in unison you're going to be ignoring price action signals. It's going to be very hard to test price action because it's more complicated and discretionary. It's something you'll need to just practice yourself via forward testing.

No set of indicators is going to be the magic ticket either. Do you really need to back test an indicator for years to see if it's useful? If you replay and test it out over a couple weeks and it doesn't work it probably isn't going to work for those previous years. Back testing may give you a better idea if certain indicators work better in different time periods like before all this volatility but is it really going to help with much more?

You need to think for yourself and analyze if something is working or not. I could tell you what works for me but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll work for you susan or bob. I hope you're getting my drift. You seem like you need everything painted out for you because you want to follow the rules but with trading the rules can be very ambiguous and subject to one's own perception.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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 Itchymoku 
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@budfox what are you referring to a model, what will you be testing for? Please elaborate. Give an example of a fictitious model ( it can just be something you made up ).

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  #82 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Itchymoku View Post
I appreciate your curiosity and eagerness to learn with your pm's to me, but I think what you need to do is just find a way to get good at testing if things work by trying them out in sim or replay. It may not be as comprehensive but you can get a good idea if things work or don't by just creating a simple table or list of p/l on if the trade worked or didn't with a specific criteria or set of criteria and go through trade by trade before you go crazy with back tests. What worked for these other people might not be best for you.

You're taking everyone's advice wholeheartedly and that'll cause you go in a thousand different directions. Maybe learning to program would help someone back-test more efficiently but you have to wonder if that is entirely what would work best for you. Think about it, if you back test a few different indicators working in unison you're going to be ignoring price action signals. It's going to be very hard to test price action because it's more complicated and discretionary. It's something you'll need to just practice yourself via forward testing.

No set of indicators is going to be the magic ticket either. Do you really need to back test an indicator for years to see if it's useful? If you replay and test it out over a couple weeks and it doesn't work it probably isn't going to work for those previous years. Back testing may give you a better idea if certain indicators work better in different time periods like before all this volatility but is it really going to help with much more?

You need to think for yourself and analyze if something is working or not. I could tell you what works for me but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll work for you susan or bob. I hope you're getting my drift. You seem like you need everything painted out for you because you want to follow the rules but with trading the rules can be very ambiguous and subject to one's own perception.

I am not trying to backtest an indicator, I am trying to backtest a model, or what some call a system.

by model I mean trade setups.......

i.e.
lets look at how a certaint trade setup performs over a 100 trades.

trade setup: when you have a a new high candle piercing out of a downtrend trendline (as an example).

so I will look how this setup plays out over 100 trades and mark if it was successful or not (win ratio), and various other stats.

hopefully when I get better at programming, I can simply write a script and then test it over larger data sets. instead of manually recording.

Thanks

BF

time for bed now lol

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 Itchymoku 
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budfox View Post
I am not trying to backtest an indicator, I am trying to backtest a model, or what some call a system.

by model I mean trade setups.......

i.e.
lets look at how a certaint trade setup performs over a 100 trades.

trade setup: when you have a a new high candle piercing out of a downtrend trendline (as an example).

so I will look how this setup plays out over 100 trades and mark if it was successful or not (win ratio), and various other stats.

hopefully when I get better at programming, I can simply write a script and then test it over larger data sets. instead of manually recording.

Thanks

BF

time for bed now lol

Can't you just do this manually to some extent just looking back through data and making a list? Is it really necessary to backtest years?n It might help save time if you're looking for a variety of different criteria based upon different settings etc. Depends how complicated I guess. Just take note that even if you do find a pattern that seems reasonable and you try to add a filter here and there, you're going to go down the rabbit hole. Sometimes it's hard to find your way out.

In any event I hope you enjoy programming, It makes the task easier. IF you don't enjoy it'll be very hard to stick to it. I went to college for programming and it was very hard for me to retain certain languages syntax and nuances if I didn't use them daily. So I suggest if you do learn a language to stick to it and not jump around until you've mastered it. Pick a platform and stick to it.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #84 (permalink)
 treydog999 
seoul, Korea
 
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Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.

I am glad to see you have written down your priorities. Honestly when ever I sit down to do anything especially trading development related i write down what I am focusing on. I think its a great way to organize yourself and get things accomplished. A lot of times you can run around in circles or get frustrated and feel like your going no where. But a list of priorities when you get to check something off the list feels so good. Sorry for the personal side note but i do feel its helpful.

Testing on any instrument Forex, equities, or futures does not really matter. Good system development principles, data management and statistical analysis are all the same. I would say options are much harder to develop on due to the multitude of strikes and expiration, but still the overall dynamics are mostly similar. Its also good to have a few base principles to guide your system development, so i am totally on board with the 2 criteria you have there.

I cant really comment on the TST combine but I can say making a system for it is like making a system with several guiding principles. Use their rules as your base criteria and it should get you started in the right direction. However the more rules and requirements the harder to develop as system and the more difficult it is to keep it robust without over fitting. Its just the rules of the game, for everything there is a cost. So find your own personal system goals and see where they tie in with the TST rules.

IMHO learning to code and back test to me is an invaluable tool. From being able to research and develop my own systems, completely automated trading, portfolio and risk management, as well as doing homework on the markets is all made easier or possible by being able to code. Not to mention the fact that it is more accurate than manually testing (we are all human) and usually gives larger sample sizes which helps for statistical accuracy. I know a lot of more manual/discretionary traders do not get as much out of it, or maybe do not have as much experience with it to see all of the benefits vs say difficulty of learning to do so.

There is also some cross over. When i was trading manually/discretionary I back tested every indicator and rule in my discretionary tool box. I also combined them together to see if the results were additive instead of canceling each other out. By doing that and seeing how all my tools worked I felt much more confident in what I was using and how i was using it rather than just taking conventional wisdom from books or the internet. My toolset could be reevaulated as markets changed so I could be dynamic as well and see what works when and what times i should avoid. Rather than something you get from a book or post that could have been written months or years ago.

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 budfox 
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Itchymoku View Post
Can't you just do this manually to some extent just looking back through data and making a list? Is it really necessary to backtest years?n It might help save time if you're looking for a variety of different criteria based upon different settings etc. Depends how complicated I guess. Just take note that even if you do find a pattern that seems reasonable and you try to add a filter here and there, you're going to go down the rabbit hole. Sometimes it's hard to find your way out.

In any event I hope you enjoy programming, It makes the task easier. IF you don't enjoy it'll be very hard to stick to it. I went to college for programming and it was very hard for me to retain certain languages syntax and nuances if I didn't use them daily. So I suggest if you do learn a language to stick to it and not jump around until you've mastered it. Pick a platform and stick to it.

Not necessarily years, but at least a N=100. I want to see the win ratio and drawdown and consecutive number of lossesand ave loss and ave win etc.

like I said before somewhere, learning to program is easier than learning to trade (more sequential based learning)

seems like there is 'no way' to learn how to trade.

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 budfox 
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budfox View Post
Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.


Would like @FXwulf @Massive I @Thxo @Yuri57 @Fadi @ratfink @joeyk professional opinions on my current plan

Thank You.

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  #87 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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I am not a professional or qualified to respond, but I would say that as long as you continue to make your own best efforts to find out what works for you and structure your expectations accordingly and in units of 6-12 months at a time, then you are on a sensible track.

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 Hulk 
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budfox View Post
PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.

PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine

I dont think anyone can actually help you with these priorities. It is great to have defined goals and work towards them so you are on the right track. TST or not, if you have an algorithmic model that works, you will be set. My definition of "works" is a forward tested model in real-time, validating each fill (entry and exit) for (this is subjective but) 3 months or 100 trades. Now, this means that you really need to give this time before you say "Eureka!". So drop any model that does not seem right at the beginning. Run several models in parallel during the forward testing phase. Record stuff. If you make changes then make them as early as possible. These are all tips to save time. Anticipate that out of 100 models you code, 1 will be worth it. But when you find that one, give it everything you got. And remember, backtests have flaws no matter which platform you use and they are not to be solely relied upon.


budfox View Post


PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

There are a bunch of websites with lots of tutorials that you can learn from. Try the following resources when you find time or are looking for help:

C# Fundamentals: Development for Absolute Beginners | Channel 9
The complete C# Tutorial

And for NT, you have plenty of help here. Just try and be as specific as possible when you ask questions. Generally, the more open ended a technical question, the less inclined people are to provide answers.


budfox View Post

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.

No idea about forex. But since you are going down the algorithmic path, and if I am not mistaken, you have a slight disadvantage with forex strategies since volume information isnt public but using ticks (trades) instead of volume (especially in thinner markets) is nearly the same as using volume. Not sure if any of your models will use volume, but if you do, this might help.

Good luck.

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 Cloudy 
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budfox View Post


PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


.

I had a little trading experience before switching to futures, discovering futures.io (formerly BMT)

Overall Forex goes by "pairs" usually Euro vs. USDollar, or various combinations.
They also can be traded in micro to mini lots. i.e. 1/10th or or even 1/100th of a regular futures contract if comparing
roughly. Sounds good , but the actual spread will most likely be at least 1pip , so not great for nickel or quarter traders trying to scalp micro-pips; unless one is ok with a higher time frame.

The general disadvantages of ForEx are "jumpy" spreads, frequent allegations and suspicions of all any brokers, maybe because ForEx is transacted through an "InterBank" i.e. bunch of big banks participating worldwide, rather than through a couple of primary exchanges that we have for futures i.e. CME and Nynex. There have been suspicions of brokers even actively trading against their customers, making the system speed slow etc. Maybe it's better now, but there were a lot of complaints in the past decade in "reviews".

The EUR/USD is closest to the futures 6E. I've noticed they are always off by a few ticks/pips at any time. (maybe because futures 6E is actually a leveraged instrument and not the "true" nominal cash value of the Euro, or whatever) i.e. 6J ~ USJ/USD, 6A ~ AUD/USD etc. So with futures you can already trade USD based futures versions of the forex pairs but not with the micro lot leverage i.e. limited to the futures contract size.

Just my layman's rough summary. (Forex people can point out accurate details and my mistakes)

some sites:

Easy Forex Forum, Factory, Best Forex Pro Signals | Donna Forex ~ mostly discussion about EA's (automated trading algos)
Learn Forex Trading With BabyPips.com

And since you are learning C/C#, that will nicely segue into learning MQL, the "C"-like scripting language of MT4 (Metatrader 4) . MT4 is basically a free platform with each broker often having their own customized version, but their interface to trade manually is awful without addons. https://www.metatrader4.com/ And there is a whole giant "community" of forex traders using MT4. MT4 has built in backtesting etc. They have a much larger history and size of automated trading involvement than Ninja, but far more dubious ads and spam of literally thousands of EA's advertised and as expected, a consistently profitable EA is almost unheard of , or at least not lasting for long especially after exposure.

popular Forex brokers using MT4

MB Trading (Ninjatrader provides an addon, that links MB trader accounts(also sim MB) to a special made Forex screen for Ninja.)
ducascopy.com (swiss, seems legit)
Forex Trading | Trade Currency Online | Forex Broker | OANDA
https://www.alpariuk.com (us shutdown? uk still going on, not sure they accept u.s. customers though)

If you have TOS account, one can trade Forex manually there too, although commissions are usually higher, so it could be better for longer time frames. although TOS scalping and their DOM has steadily improved since TDAmeritrade is committed
to making the TOS platform work for their customers. Overall, Forex is the currencies market, so there is still the usual price action (without volume). According to news (and CNBC snippets I've seen) over the past recent years HFT had made bigger inroads to Forex after they saturated the ES. And certain world governments and banks often do their monetary policy fiddling with the currencies at time, so it can act crazy at times. Ok, good luck.

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 budfox 
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Hulk View Post
I dont think anyone can actually help you with these priorities. It is great to have defined goals and work towards them so you are on the right track. TST or not, if you have an algorithmic model that works, you will be set. My definition of "works" is a forward tested model in real-time, validating each fill (entry and exit) for (this is subjective but) 3 months or 100 trades. Now, this means that you really need to give this time before you say "Eureka!". So drop any model that does not seem right at the beginning. Run several models in parallel during the forward testing phase. Record stuff. If you make changes then make them as early as possible. These are all tips to save time. Anticipate that out of 100 models you code, 1 will be worth it. But when you find that one, give it everything you got. And remember, backtests have flaws no matter which platform you use and they are not to be solely relied upon.



There are a bunch of websites with lots of tutorials that you can learn from. Try the following resources when you find time or are looking for help:

C# Fundamentals: Development for Absolute Beginners | Channel 9
The complete C# Tutorial

And for NT, you have plenty of help here. Just try and be as specific as possible when you ask questions. Generally, the more open ended a technical question, the less inclined people are to provide answers.



No idea about forex. But since you are going down the algorithmic path, and if I am not mistaken, you have a slight disadvantage with forex strategies since volume information isnt public but using ticks (trades) instead of volume (especially in thinner markets) is nearly the same as using volume. Not sure if any of your models will use volume, but if you do, this might help.

Good luck.


This is probably one of the better posts on this thread.

Thanks for the practical advice Hulk.

Have a good night.

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 budfox 
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Hulk View Post
So drop any model that does not seem right at the beginning. Run several models in parallel during the forward testing phase. Record stuff. If you make changes then make them as early as possible. These are all tips to save time.


Yeah that is what I think I am doing.

For instance I was backtesting one model and after 40 trades (N=40), the win ratio was a horrible 42% and did not fit into my criteria of a 60% win ratio. So no point of continuing to manually (read: painful) backtest another 50 trades right?

@Hulk

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 Hulk 
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budfox View Post
Yeah that is what I think I am doing.

For instance I was backtesting one model and after 40 trades (N=40), the win ratio was a horrible 42% and did not fit into my criteria of a 60% win ratio. So no point of continuing to manually (read: painful) backtest another 50 trades right?

@Hulk

Think about it this way. If your strategy took 100 trades and 42 were winners but your winners made 5 points each and 58 of your losers lost 1 point each. Thats a great strategy even though only 42% won. So its not just about with win %.

Some general rules that I keep in mind when developing my models, hopefully these will help you:
  • Strategies that trade less, capture more of a move are preferable over strategies that scalp. So focus on strategies that trade for longer durations, higher time frames etc. I would prefer a strategy that takes 1 trade a day and goes for 10 ES points to a strategy that takes 10 trades and goes for 1 ES point/trade any day.
  • All backtests should assume slippage. Especially in thinner markets. For instance, in CL, you want to assume 2 ticks of slippage on each side - entry and exit. For ES, assume 1 tick slippage each side. If your backtests with these slippages included are successful, that model is generally a good candidate for forward testing.
  • Even when you include all the suggestions that everyone has given you regarding backtesting, your strategies will not perform the same way in live markets as they did in backtests. So the next step is to run it in SIM, validate it works properly and validate that each entry/exit got filled for either a sufficient period of time or number of trades. If after this validation, the results are satisfactory, then go live with it. @kevinkdog has an entire thread on this.
  • This is the single most important point: Think about your competition and what is it that you bring to the table vs what they do. Is your model something special that just you or very few people might have? If not, what makes you think it will give you an edge in these markets. Please remember that this is a highly competitive edge we are talking about. If it wasnt so competitive and difficult, everyone would be running a model trading ES and/or CL from their basements. You have to have something special, a niche, that no one else has. If the markets are Gotham city, you have to be Batman otherwise you dont stand a chance. Poor analogy, I know but this is really important to think about. This stuff isnt easy.

Good luck.

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 budfox 
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Cloudy View Post

And since you are learning C/C#, that will nicely segue into learning MQL, the "C"-like scripting language of MT4 (Metatrader 4) . MT4 is basically a free platform with each broker often having their own customized version, but their interface to trade manually is awful without addons. Forex Trading Platform MetaTrader 4 And there is a whole giant "community" of forex traders using MT4. MT4 has built in backtesting etc. They have a much larger history and size of automated trading involvement than Ninja, but far more dubious ads and spam of literally thousands of EA's advertised and as expected, a consistently profitable EA is almost unheard of , or at least not lasting for long especially after exposure.


I prefer Ninja way more than MT4, is there any brokers that offer the NT platform?

also what brokers should I avoid at all costs?

Thanks

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 Cloudy 
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I assume you're asking about forex brokers that use NT? I'm not sure now except for MBTrading.
Ninjatrader since starting their own brokerage don't list that many on their site info now:
(probably this question can be re-asked on Ninjatrader support forums)

NinjaTrader Ecosystem | Broker Partners (bottom part of page)

FXCM is also another long time popular forex brokerage.
IB also, but they do everything.

TOS so far only does some stocks on NT. I haven't been able to get forex pairs to show up on NT through my TDAmeritrade account yet.

Mirus seemed to have a forex service starting to setup back then, but then we all know what happened to Mirus/Zenfire now.


some of the older forex brokers had already been shut down. usually the forex
forums such as donnaforex will list somewhere the current popular brokers.

EDIT: oh wow, I just saw that FXCM now supports Ninjatrader! nice.
https://www.fxcm.com/products/ninjatrader/free-software?elq_mid=9216&elq_cid=6051098

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 budfox 
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Hi everyone,

I have been exclusively focussing on forex recently.

Some new perspectives and decisions:

I think I will only test/trade models that are designed for the specific instrument (i.e. what the creator of the model intended to trade it with)

For, instance, Mark Fisher intended to trade Oil with ACD (not ES ) , so I will not trade the Es using ACD.

so now I am looking at trading models where the creator has specifically designed his model to be traded with forex.


Also, I will not try to design and come up with my own models to test/trade. I will just use already proven models (eg. Market Profile, ACD, PATs, patterns) .

The objective is to find a profitable model that I can actually trade, and start trading on a regular basis (ie start making money)
@ratfink @chuckchucker


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior

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 tigertrader 
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budfox View Post
Hi everyone,

I have been exclusively focussing on forex recently.

Some new perspectives and decisions:

I think I will only test/trade models that are designed for the specific instrument (i.e. what the creator of the model intended to trade it with)

For, instance, Mark Fisher intended to trade Oil with ACD (not ES ) , so I will not trade the Es using ACD.

so now I am looking at trading models where the creator has specifically designed his model to be traded with forex.


Also, I will not try to design and come up with my own models to test/trade. I will just use already proven models (eg. Market Profile, ACD, PATs, patterns) .

The objective is to find a profitable model that I can actually trade, and start trading on a regular basis (ie start making money)




@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior



no such thing...

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 budfox 
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no such thing...

care to explain what you mean? I would be very interested to know.

Thank You.

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 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
Hi everyone,

I have been exclusively focussing on forex recently.

Some new perspectives and decisions:

I think I will only test/trade models that are designed for the specific instrument (i.e. what the creator of the model intended to trade it with)

For, instance, Mark Fisher intended to trade Oil with ACD (not ES ) , so I will not trade the Es using ACD.

so now I am looking at trading models where the creator has specifically designed his model to be traded with forex.


Also, I will not try to design and come up with my own models to test/trade. I will just use already proven models (eg. Market Profile, ACD, PATs, patterns) .

The objective is to find a profitable model that I can actually trade, and start trading on a regular basis (ie start making money)




@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior

I have no idea why you tag us in these post. Trading sucks... get a real job and buy some ETFs.

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 DarkPoolTrading 
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I have no idea why you tag us in these post.

And then there is the ongoing insistence on using massive font sizes and bold font for no reason.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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 tigertrader 
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budfox View Post
care to explain what you mean? I would be very interested to know.

Thank You.

a trader goes into a bar and orders a drink. as he sits there sipping his single-malt, a young lady sits down next to him. she says, 'I'm a lesbian” i spend my whole day thinking about women!” a little while later, a couple sits down next to the old trader and asks him, 'are you a futures trader? 'he replies, “i always thought I was, but I just found out i'm a lesbian."the mistake the trader makes is that he assumes that the definition of a lesbian is somebody who spends the "whole day thinking about women." the reason the joke works is because in a certain way that definition could apply to lesbians, but it fails to address the point that a lesbian is a gay female. the trader is neither gay nor female; therefore, he is obviously, not a lesbian.

this underscores the basic epistemological problem of establishing causal relationships and is one of the predominant reasons traders are unsuccessful. false premises often lead to bad results; but, what is even worse is that a strategy based on a premise that is false, can in fact, result in a positive outcome. in the former case, most new traders tend to make excuses and place the blame on external factors and not themselves or their strategy, e.g., my premise is right, but the market isn’t making sense or is wrong, the market is choppy, the market is manipulated, the algos are hunting my stops, the market is too volatile, the market is directionless, etc.. there are 2 variables in trading; the trader and the market he trades. improvement must come from the trader and not the tradee.

in the latter case, the random success of of a pattern, set-up, or formation, is often mistaken as a reproducible edge. even the fair toss of a coin has a 77% probability that a streak of 5 consecutive heads will occur. the false confidence gained from random success often distorts the naive trader’s perception of his methodology. the set-up may have been successful purely by chance, or may have worked well recently, or under certain conditions, but not provide a well-defined historical edge. it is extremely difficult to differentiate between a deterministic edge and random results. this is why it is important to question your successes as often as your failures. this is why it is important to question your strategy/methodology, and this is why you must question yourself.

traders who have capital, confidence, commitment, and learn to adapt their techniques to varying market environments and to current price drivers, can and will succeed. however, this requires continuous incremental improvements and new insights. it means knowing when to improve performance by further mastering existing tools, and when to invent/learn new tools. this kind of expertise can take years to achieve, yet most new traders believe the process is easily acquired and mastered -false premise #1.

"contradictions do not exist. whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. you will find that one of them is wrong." false premise #2 - i am objective and unbiased about the market’s direction. most traders are guided by confirmation bias, and use their chart patterns and set-ups to convert their bias into a logical argument.

false premise #3 - a good entry and tight stops reduces my risk and trailing stops protect my profits. arguably, the most stultifying practice in trading, it is predicated on the totally subjective decision of risk/reward and where the stops s/b placed. price change is not linear, and while a price chart models relevant aspects of price change, such models invariably support relationships that do not correspond to the original process. so, a while a trendline or a swing high/low may present a visual representation of a viable place to place one’s stop, it has no intrinsic meaning for the price series, and only serves as target for algos.

which of course, leads to false premise #4, which is charts and technical analysis, and the patterns, formations and set-ups they produce, are forward looking and can predict the market's direction. charts no longer play the role they once played and are simply artifacts of random price action. we are now in the post-technical analysis era where hfts, central bank policy, and sovereign agendas drive the markets. traditional technical analysis is like a religion, and for most traders, logic and reason does not play a role, in the practice of their religion.

carbon-copy trading, puts one in the herd and in a very crowded space and only sets one up to be disappointed, while a realistic approach allows one to act uniquely, and sets one up to be creative - markets begins to take on nuance and progressively more meaning. recent moves in the spx and crude have been veritable treasure troves for short term traders, where big cycle moves meant that traders willing to trade the market won big. at first domestic qe drove equity prices higher, and now global qe is the driver behind the equity move. the economic and monetary divergence that favors a strong us dollar, along with saudi policy is the driver behind the large linear moves in crude.

the opportunities are there. even on the rangebound days the market will cycle from low to high and from high to low. and one just needs to trade the the market to make money. but, take it a step further and use your favorite reversion strategy to buy/sell pullbacks from the trend. now use 2 independent edges for confirmation and to give you confidence in the trade. you are trading in direction of the trend, but now you are using a strategy with a bigger edge – because you are trading w/ the drift and you can give your trade a little more rope. MOST IMPORTANT - be patient and adjust trade size and stop-loss levels to prevent getting stopped-out of a potential winner by managing expected value along with p&l, while allowing for a margin of error, so that you may stay-in-the-trade, and then hold on to the trade.

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